Author Topic: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...  (Read 619310 times)

MasterStache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2045
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5700 on: January 18, 2019, 06:05:04 AM »
Meanwhile it looks like Trump may have instructed Cohen to lie to Congress about the Trump Tower project in Moscow. Whoops! If true he'll either resign or be impeached. Looking forward to having a functioning competent government again.

Of course I'm probably just trolling like everyone else in this thread (-; Just glad we have a free thinking patriotic American to put us all in our places.

Oh and it appears Trump directed Cohen to hire a firm to rig the polls in his favor. Turns out Trump was (gulp) right all along. The polls really were rigged! It's just that Trump rigged them.
« Last Edit: January 18, 2019, 06:53:12 AM by MasterStache »

talltexan

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2302
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5701 on: January 18, 2019, 06:56:06 AM »
Nereo-
you're welcome to blame Trump and McConnell, but Mark Meadows and the Freedom Caucus who led the charge in the December House vote deserve blame, too.

talltexan

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2302
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5702 on: January 18, 2019, 06:57:44 AM »
Meanwhile it looks like Trump may have instructed Cohen to lie to Congress about the Trump Tower project in Moscow. Whoops! If true he'll either resign or be impeached. Looking forward to having a functioning competent government again.

Of course I'm probably just trolling like everyone else in this thread (-; Just glad we have a free thinking patriotic American to put us all in our places.

Oh and it appears Trump directed Cohen to hire a firm to rig the polls in his favor. Turns out Trump was (gulp) right all along. The polls really were rigged! It's just that Trump rigged them.

I did happen to catch this news late last night. It does appear that some kind of improper coordination with Russia was going on.

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 10031
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5703 on: January 18, 2019, 07:09:39 AM »
Nereo-
you're welcome to blame Trump and McConnell, but Mark Meadows and the Freedom Caucus who led the charge in the December House vote deserve blame, too.

Sure, plenty of blame can be passed around for what has transpired in previous weeks, but at this moment in time the reopening of the government is being blocked by two people: McConnell who won't allow a vote and Trump who keeps telling McConnell he won't sign such a bill (which in turn is McConnell's defense for not allowing a plurality of Senators to vote for reopening the government).

If we want to go back further - this shutdown could have been avoided had the GOP bothered to pass a budget during the 2 years in which they controlled all aspects of the federal government.  Had a budget been passed in 2018 we wouldn't be where we are now.  As is, the last time congress passed a budget was in 2016 during Obama's final few months (again, with a GOP controlled House and Senate).


bacchi

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3538
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5704 on: January 18, 2019, 02:20:58 PM »
Speculation:

What will really crater GOP Senate support for Trump will be the economy. If consumer sentiment continues its decline, there will be a recession. This will peel away some of Trump's base, which is already hovering around 38%. The RNC will smell blood and primary contenders will rush in to take advantage.

Anything else is meaningless. He could throw a party for Russian billionaires and Fox News and Graham will make some excuse.

talltexan

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2302
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5705 on: January 18, 2019, 02:30:49 PM »
Republican voters were quite capable of believing the economy was bad while Obama was President. Why would they think it wasn't good under Trump? (And I acknowledge the converse, that all my liberal friends are suddenly acting very cautious, financially)

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 10031
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5706 on: January 18, 2019, 02:49:58 PM »
Speculation:

What will really crater GOP Senate support for Trump will be the economy. If consumer sentiment continues its decline, there will be a recession. This will peel away some of Trump's base, which is already hovering around 38%. The RNC will smell blood and primary contenders will rush in to take advantage.

Anything else is meaningless. He could throw a party for Russian billionaires and Fox News and Graham will make some excuse.

It's the economy stupid!


Seriously though - I don't see how he could win with his current numbers.  His base can keep him from gettting removed from office, but it can't get him re-elected - for that he needs moderate Rs and independents to vote for him, and he needs minorities to not vote.  Neither seem likely.  38% wont' cut it.  Even 45% is a lost battle when your unpopularity number stands even higher, and he hasn't had that high of an approval since just after his inauguration.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8362
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5707 on: January 18, 2019, 03:07:15 PM »
I don't see how he could win with his current numbers.

It's a long time until the election.  Two years is an eternity in politics.

Quote
Even 45% is a lost battle when your unpopularity number stands even higher

I disagree.  Remember he doesn't need anywhere near popular support, he only needs bare majorities in specific electoral college states.  He only got 46% of the voters to support him last time.  I think a 45% approval ratings is more than sufficient to get 46% of people to vote for you, especially if you can sufficiently demonize your opponent.  Lots of people who have never really approved of Trump voted for him anyway, because of the "Hillary is truly evil" narrative.

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 10031
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5708 on: January 18, 2019, 03:15:28 PM »
I don't see how he could win with his current numbers.

It's a long time until the election.  Two years is an eternity in politics.


yeah, which is why I put the caveat "with his current numbers".  55% disapprove and ~39% approve.  Even with the electoral college no candidate's won with negatives that high.
It does make me wonder about the other 6% who still have 'no opinion' on DJT.  What more do they need in order to decide if they approve or disapprove?

bacchi

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3538
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5709 on: January 18, 2019, 03:56:03 PM »
Republican voters were quite capable of believing the economy was bad while Obama was President. Why would they think it wasn't good under Trump? (And I acknowledge the converse, that all my liberal friends are suddenly acting very cautious, financially)

You're suggesting that, even if the market tanks and unemployment rises, Trump's base will whistle past the graveyard?

It's possible that the recent drop in consumer sentiment* is only due to liberals seeing the shutdown and being spooked. And I guess that, even if we go into a recession, most of Trump's base would blame it on the Democrats and high taxes/regulation/obstructionism/the EPA but some, surely, would hesitate to go to the polls and vote for him.

For example, soybean farmers are on the government dole due to Trump's tariffs. They know it and (I assume) will eventually come to terms that he's not doing them any favors.


* https://news.yahoo.com/u-manufacturing-output-posts-biggest-gain-10-months-141901441--finance.html

DavidAnnArbor

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1953
  • Age: 53
  • Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5710 on: January 18, 2019, 04:27:25 PM »
McConnell is the main obstacle from opening up the government. The Congress has veto proof majorities for opening things back up.

OtherJen

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1258
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5711 on: January 18, 2019, 04:52:33 PM »
McConnell is the main obstacle from opening up the government. The Congress has veto proof majorities for opening things back up.

I’d love to know what nasty intel Trump has on McConnell. I blame the current clusterfuck entirely on him and the Trump administration.

Kris

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3935
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5712 on: January 18, 2019, 05:17:27 PM »
McConnell is the main obstacle from opening up the government. The Congress has veto proof majorities for opening things back up.

I’d love to know what nasty intel Trump has on McConnell. I blame the current clusterfuck entirely on him and the Trump administration.

In McConnell’s case, I firmly believe he is such a power whore that he doesn’t need to be blackmailed. He will sacrifice any moral or ethical satisfaction for the high of being in control at any cost.

OtherJen

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1258
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5713 on: January 18, 2019, 05:29:18 PM »
McConnell is the main obstacle from opening up the government. The Congress has veto proof majorities for opening things back up.

I’d love to know what nasty intel Trump has on McConnell. I blame the current clusterfuck entirely on him and the Trump administration.

In McConnell’s case, I firmly believe he is such a power whore that he doesn’t need to be blackmailed. He will sacrifice any moral or ethical satisfaction for the high of being in control at any cost.

So gross.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8362
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5714 on: January 18, 2019, 05:37:26 PM »
In McConnell’s case, I firmly believe he is such a power whore that he doesn’t need to be blackmailed. He will sacrifice any moral or ethical satisfaction for the high of being in control at any cost.

More specifically, McConnell's colleagues have reported that he is the ultimate partisan.  His job description as majority leader is dependent on him keeping his party in power, and then consolidating the support of that majority, so his ultimate loyalty is to his party.  Multiple republicans in Congress have described him this way over the years, as someone who thinks first about how every decision affects his party, and second (if at all) about how it affects the country.

So I think that McConnell's embrace of Trump was a calculated power play.  He needed to consolidate a republican party that was in danger of being subverted from within by a rogue candidate that didn't support the party ideology.  Faced with the prospect of losing an election, he voluntarily folded most everything the republican party used to stand for and fully embraced Trump's particular brand of virulence.  The demagoguery, the lying, the racism, the grandstanding, everything.  He let go of any semblance of the old GOP's points of pride, like fiscal responsibility, foreign policy expertise, and responsible if somewhat staid leadership.  McConnell killed the republican party in order to save it, by giving it over to a con man, in order to save his own position of authority. 

I think it was a real "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em" moment for him but now he's stuck with the consequences of that decision.  When you throw in with crooks, you come out crooked.
« Last Edit: January 18, 2019, 11:55:56 PM by sol »

DavidAnnArbor

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1953
  • Age: 53
  • Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5715 on: January 18, 2019, 08:51:36 PM »
These are the Republican Senators who are vulnerable in 2020:

Sens. Martha McSally (Ariz.), Cory Gardner (Colo.), David Perdue (Ga.), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Susan Collins (Maine) and Thom Tillis (N.C.)

FIPurpose

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 906
  • Location: ME
    • FI With Purpose
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5716 on: January 18, 2019, 11:31:18 PM »
These are the Republican Senators who are vulnerable in 2020:

Sens. Martha McSally (Ariz.), Cory Gardner (Colo.), David Perdue (Ga.), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Susan Collins (Maine) and Thom Tillis (N.C.)

I believe out of the 6 Collins and Gardner are definitely going to lose. (Kavanaugh will be a bad taste in the mouth for Collins. Gardner is fighting new state demographics.) Ariz. and NC are lean blue, Iowa and GA are lean red.

partgypsy

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2934
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5717 on: January 19, 2019, 06:28:37 AM »
McConnell is the main obstacle from opening up the government. The Congress has veto proof majorities for opening things back up.

I’d love to know what nasty intel Trump has on McConnell. I blame the current clusterfuck entirely on him and the Trump administration.

In McConnell’s case, I firmly believe he is such a power whore that he doesn’t need to be blackmailed. He will sacrifice any moral or ethical satisfaction for the high of being in control at any cost.

McConnell is the ultimate toady. I remember seeing movies where there would be toady serving some bad guy boss, being abused and probably in the future betrayed by the boss. Watching the movie it seems so unrealistic that that person would stick with the boss, even though you can see a mile away it's going to end badly. Who knows, maybe the movies are more realistic than I thought.   

« Last Edit: January 19, 2019, 06:43:37 AM by partgypsy »

Kyle Schuant

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 659
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5718 on: January 19, 2019, 05:03:04 PM »
The good part about a toadie is that since they have no personal loyalty, it's easy to lure them away from their current lord and master. You just need a better and more popular leader to emerge. One would not think this is a tall order...

gentmach

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 305
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5719 on: January 19, 2019, 06:18:04 PM »
Meanwhile it looks like Trump may have instructed Cohen to lie to Congress about the Trump Tower project in Moscow. Whoops! If true he'll either resign or be impeached. Looking forward to having a functioning competent government again.

Of course I'm probably just trolling like everyone else in this thread (-; Just glad we have a free thinking patriotic American to put us all in our places.

Oh and it appears Trump directed Cohen to hire a firm to rig the polls in his favor. Turns out Trump was (gulp) right all along. The polls really were rigged! It's just that Trump rigged them.

About that BuzzFeed report...

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/426128-special-counsel-issues-rare-statement-disputing-buzzfeeds-cohen

As for the government shutdown, Trump doesn't have to worry about bad polling numbers because this government shutdown will be eclipsed by The Mueller report by the time the next election comes around. So he is free to play "the bad guy" in the negotiations.

Democrats retook the house with a mandate to "stop Trump." (Alternatively to be "The adults in the room.") Problem is, no one expected a "scorched Earth policy" in order to stop Trump. Pelosi had a close call to get her speaker position back, (https://amp.slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/11/nancy-pelosi-speaker-challenge-tim-ryan-seth-moulton.html), so she can't back down without appearing weak. And the last government shutdown cost 24 billion in lost economic output. (NPR interview with Dick Durbin)

Democrats seem to have the weaker hand to play because Trump has nothing to lose while Democrats have to balance being "The good guys."

Kris

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3935
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5720 on: January 19, 2019, 06:27:44 PM »
Meanwhile it looks like Trump may have instructed Cohen to lie to Congress about the Trump Tower project in Moscow. Whoops! If true he'll either resign or be impeached. Looking forward to having a functioning competent government again.

Of course I'm probably just trolling like everyone else in this thread (-; Just glad we have a free thinking patriotic American to put us all in our places.

Oh and it appears Trump directed Cohen to hire a firm to rig the polls in his favor. Turns out Trump was (gulp) right all along. The polls really were rigged! It's just that Trump rigged them.

About that BuzzFeed report...

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/426128-special-counsel-issues-rare-statement-disputing-buzzfeeds-cohen

As for the government shutdown, Trump doesn't have to worry about bad polling numbers because this government shutdown will be eclipsed by The Mueller report by the time the next election comes around. So he is free to play "the bad guy" in the negotiations.

Democrats retook the house with a mandate to "stop Trump." (Alternatively to be "The adults in the room.") Problem is, no one expected a "scorched Earth policy" in order to stop Trump. Pelosi had a close call to get her speaker position back, (https://amp.slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/11/nancy-pelosi-speaker-challenge-tim-ryan-seth-moulton.html), so she can't back down without appearing weak. And the last government shutdown cost 24 billion in lost economic output. (NPR interview with Dick Durbin)

Democrats seem to have the weaker hand to play because Trump has nothing to lose while Democrats have to balance being "The good guys."

Lol.

I mean, enjoy your read on this. I’ll grant you that Dems have caved in the past out of weakness. But holy hell, it takes a lot of delusional thinking to convince yourself that Trump actually has the upper hand here.

Good luck, Gentmach.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8362
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5721 on: January 19, 2019, 06:41:56 PM »
it takes a lot of delusional thinking to convince yourself that Trump actually has the upper hand here.

I'm not so sure.  Trump has a lifetime of experience cheating deals.  If he manages to work out a deal with democrats to re-open the government while exchange a DACA fix for some border wall funding, I expect he'll just take the funding, fix DACA, and then break DACA again next month.  That's the problem with executive orders.  Trump has absolutely no incentive to be true to any of his promises, or hold up his end of any deals.

If the democrats were to agree to a deal and then reneg on their promises, lots of democratic voters would find that despicable.  If Trump were to agree to a deal and then reneg on his promises, his base would cheer "Yea, way to stick it to those gullible libtards!"  This is why I think the democrats basically can't agree to anything until after the government is open again.  They have incentive to appear reasonable and productive and competent, and Trump does not.  Trump's incentives are encouraging him to make a deal and then cheat on it, just like he has on virtually every deal he's ever made in life.

So the democrats have a harder job in this negotiation.  They've basically assumed 100% of the responsibility for finding a solution, because Trump shuttered the government and promised to keep it shuttered indefinitely unless democrats capitulate completely.  He's shown zero desire to govern responsibly or effectively.  He's been rewarded for playing terrorist in the white house, and that's a much easier role to play than President.

But like all terrorist situations, negotiation only encourages more terrorist activity in the future.  If Trump gets one dime for his border wall from democrats trying to save the country, what's to stop him from closing it again next time around?  Or the time after that?  Why not refuse to sign any bills at all unless Congress agrees to end the Russia investigation and declare him emperor for life?  You see where this is leading?  This isn't politics, it's national suicide.  We're better than this, or at least I thought we were.

Kris

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3935
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5722 on: January 19, 2019, 06:52:54 PM »
it takes a lot of delusional thinking to convince yourself that Trump actually has the upper hand here.

I'm not so sure.  Trump has a lifetime of experience cheating deals.  If he manages to work out a deal with democrats to re-open the government while exchange a DACA fix for some border wall funding, I expect he'll just take the funding, fix DACA, and then break DACA again next month.  That's the problem with executive orders.  Trump has absolutely no incentive to be true to any of his promises, or hold up his end of any deals.

If the democrats were to agree to a deal and then reneg on their promises, lots of democratic voters would find that despicable.  If Trump were to agree to a deal and then reneg on his promises, his base would cheer "Yea, way to stick it to those gullible libtards!"  This is why I think the democrats basically can't agree to anything until after the government is open again.  They have incentive to appear reasonable and productive and competent, and Trump does not.  Trump's incentives are encouraging him to make a deal and then cheat on it, just like he has on virtually every deal he's ever made in life.

So the democrats have a harder job in this negotiation.  They've basically assumed 100% of the responsibility for finding a solution, because Trump shuttered the government and promised to keep it shuttered indefinitely unless democrats capitulate completely.  He's shown zero desire to govern responsibly or effectively.  He's been rewarded for playing terrorist in the white house, and that's a much easier role to play than President.

But like all terrorist situations, negotiation only encourages more terrorist activity in the future.  If Trump gets one dime for his border wall from democrats trying to save the country, what's to stop him from closing it again next time around?  Or the time after that?  Why not refuse to sign any bills at all unless Congress agrees to end the Russia investigation and declare him emperor for life?  You see where this is leading?  This isn't politics, it's national suicide.  We're better than this, or at least I thought we were.

I’m not saying the Dems have this sewn up. This is their battle to lose. And as we saw in 2016, they’re good at that.

But that isn’t the same as saying Trump is in the stronger position.

gentmach

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 305
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5723 on: January 19, 2019, 08:06:48 PM »
it takes a lot of delusional thinking to convince yourself that Trump actually has the upper hand here.

I'm not so sure.  Trump has a lifetime of experience cheating deals.  If he manages to work out a deal with democrats to re-open the government while exchange a DACA fix for some border wall funding, I expect he'll just take the funding, fix DACA, and then break DACA again next month.  That's the problem with executive orders.  Trump has absolutely no incentive to be true to any of his promises, or hold up his end of any deals.

If the democrats were to agree to a deal and then reneg on their promises, lots of democratic voters would find that despicable.  If Trump were to agree to a deal and then reneg on his promises, his base would cheer "Yea, way to stick it to those gullible libtards!"  This is why I think the democrats basically can't agree to anything until after the government is open again.  They have incentive to appear reasonable and productive and competent, and Trump does not.  Trump's incentives are encouraging him to make a deal and then cheat on it, just like he has on virtually every deal he's ever made in life.

So the democrats have a harder job in this negotiation.  They've basically assumed 100% of the responsibility for finding a solution, because Trump shuttered the government and promised to keep it shuttered indefinitely unless democrats capitulate completely.  He's shown zero desire to govern responsibly or effectively.  He's been rewarded for playing terrorist in the white house, and that's a much easier role to play than President.

But like all terrorist situations, negotiation only encourages more terrorist activity in the future.  If Trump gets one dime for his border wall from democrats trying to save the country, what's to stop him from closing it again next time around?  Or the time after that?  Why not refuse to sign any bills at all unless Congress agrees to end the Russia investigation and declare him emperor for life?  You see where this is leading?  This isn't politics, it's national suicide.  We're better than this, or at least I thought we were.

I’m not saying the Dems have this sewn up. This is their battle to lose. And as we saw in 2016, they’re good at that.

But that isn’t the same as saying Trump is in the stronger position.

Thank you Sol for expanding on my thought.

Looking into this a bit more, Trump did make an offer today and Democrats flatly refused to negotiate. Granted Trump offered nothing new in the deal but now Democrats just look stubborn while 800,000 federal workers go without pay.

Why would Trump have the weaker position?

Kris

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3935
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5724 on: January 19, 2019, 08:13:37 PM »
it takes a lot of delusional thinking to convince yourself that Trump actually has the upper hand here.

I'm not so sure.  Trump has a lifetime of experience cheating deals.  If he manages to work out a deal with democrats to re-open the government while exchange a DACA fix for some border wall funding, I expect he'll just take the funding, fix DACA, and then break DACA again next month.  That's the problem with executive orders.  Trump has absolutely no incentive to be true to any of his promises, or hold up his end of any deals.

If the democrats were to agree to a deal and then reneg on their promises, lots of democratic voters would find that despicable.  If Trump were to agree to a deal and then reneg on his promises, his base would cheer "Yea, way to stick it to those gullible libtards!"  This is why I think the democrats basically can't agree to anything until after the government is open again.  They have incentive to appear reasonable and productive and competent, and Trump does not.  Trump's incentives are encouraging him to make a deal and then cheat on it, just like he has on virtually every deal he's ever made in life.

So the democrats have a harder job in this negotiation.  They've basically assumed 100% of the responsibility for finding a solution, because Trump shuttered the government and promised to keep it shuttered indefinitely unless democrats capitulate completely.  He's shown zero desire to govern responsibly or effectively.  He's been rewarded for playing terrorist in the white house, and that's a much easier role to play than President.

But like all terrorist situations, negotiation only encourages more terrorist activity in the future.  If Trump gets one dime for his border wall from democrats trying to save the country, what's to stop him from closing it again next time around?  Or the time after that?  Why not refuse to sign any bills at all unless Congress agrees to end the Russia investigation and declare him emperor for life?  You see where this is leading?  This isn't politics, it's national suicide.  We're better than this, or at least I thought we were.

I’m not saying the Dems have this sewn up. This is their battle to lose. And as we saw in 2016, they’re good at that.

But that isn’t the same as saying Trump is in the stronger position.

Thank you Sol for expanding on my thought.

Looking into this a bit more, Trump did make an offer today and Democrats flatly refused to negotiate. Granted Trump offered nothing new in the deal but now Democrats just look stubborn while 800,000 federal workers go without pay.

Why would Trump have the weaker position?

Because Trump is fucking ridiculous?

gentmach

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 305
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5725 on: January 19, 2019, 08:28:47 PM »
it takes a lot of delusional thinking to convince yourself that Trump actually has the upper hand here.

I'm not so sure.  Trump has a lifetime of experience cheating deals.  If he manages to work out a deal with democrats to re-open the government while exchange a DACA fix for some border wall funding, I expect he'll just take the funding, fix DACA, and then break DACA again next month.  That's the problem with executive orders.  Trump has absolutely no incentive to be true to any of his promises, or hold up his end of any deals.

If the democrats were to agree to a deal and then reneg on their promises, lots of democratic voters would find that despicable.  If Trump were to agree to a deal and then reneg on his promises, his base would cheer "Yea, way to stick it to those gullible libtards!"  This is why I think the democrats basically can't agree to anything until after the government is open again.  They have incentive to appear reasonable and productive and competent, and Trump does not.  Trump's incentives are encouraging him to make a deal and then cheat on it, just like he has on virtually every deal he's ever made in life.

So the democrats have a harder job in this negotiation.  They've basically assumed 100% of the responsibility for finding a solution, because Trump shuttered the government and promised to keep it shuttered indefinitely unless democrats capitulate completely.  He's shown zero desire to govern responsibly or effectively.  He's been rewarded for playing terrorist in the white house, and that's a much easier role to play than President.

But like all terrorist situations, negotiation only encourages more terrorist activity in the future.  If Trump gets one dime for his border wall from democrats trying to save the country, what's to stop him from closing it again next time around?  Or the time after that?  Why not refuse to sign any bills at all unless Congress agrees to end the Russia investigation and declare him emperor for life?  You see where this is leading?  This isn't politics, it's national suicide.  We're better than this, or at least I thought we were.

I’m not saying the Dems have this sewn up. This is their battle to lose. And as we saw in 2016, they’re good at that.

But that isn’t the same as saying Trump is in the stronger position.

Thank you Sol for expanding on my thought.

Looking into this a bit more, Trump did make an offer today and Democrats flatly refused to negotiate. Granted Trump offered nothing new in the deal but now Democrats just look stubborn while 800,000 federal workers go without pay.

Why would Trump have the weaker position?

Because Trump is fucking ridiculous?

Can't argue with that.

bacchi

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3538
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5726 on: January 19, 2019, 08:49:10 PM »
About that BuzzFeed report...

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/426128-special-counsel-issues-rare-statement-disputing-buzzfeeds-cohen

A Mueller denial could just be a feint. Of course, given who broke the story, it's probably fake. Why do people keep hiring that "journalist?"

Quote
As for the government shutdown, Trump doesn't have to worry about bad polling numbers because this government shutdown will be eclipsed by The Mueller report by the time the next election comes around. So he is free to play "the bad guy" in the negotiations.

Trump may not care about the numbers but the 2020 Republican Senators do. If he polls lower than his ~38%, there may be enough GOP support to elect a new majority leader, bypassing McConnell.

It'd be a shit show but Trump tied himself to the economy. As it goes, so does Trump.

gentmach

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 305
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5727 on: January 19, 2019, 09:24:34 PM »
About that BuzzFeed report...

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/426128-special-counsel-issues-rare-statement-disputing-buzzfeeds-cohen

A Mueller denial could just be a feint. Of course, given who broke the story, it's probably fake. Why do people keep hiring that "journalist?"

Quote
As for the government shutdown, Trump doesn't have to worry about bad polling numbers because this government shutdown will be eclipsed by The Mueller report by the time the next election comes around. So he is free to play "the bad guy" in the negotiations.

Trump may not care about the numbers but the 2020 Republican Senators do. If he polls lower than his ~38%, there may be enough GOP support to elect a new majority leader, bypassing McConnell.

It'd be a shit show but Trump tied himself to the economy. As it goes, so does Trump.

The Mueller statement sucked the air out of the room. Even if it was a feint, it disturbed some people.

In the Age of Trump, just take it one day at a time, alright? It's going to be a long strange trip that I won't worry about polling numbers until August 2020.

MasterStache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2045
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5728 on: January 20, 2019, 06:31:07 AM »
About that BuzzFeed report...

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/426128-special-counsel-issues-rare-statement-disputing-buzzfeeds-cohen

A Mueller denial could just be a feint. Of course, given who broke the story, it's probably fake. Why do people keep hiring that "journalist?"

I find it interesting that Mueller's team actually said anything. They are normally tight lipped about everything. Also find it interesting they didn't flat out deny the entire BuzzFeed report. Just claimed there were "inaccuracies." I am sure they want zero leaks as they leave no stone un-turned.

Quote
Quote
As for the government shutdown, Trump doesn't have to worry about bad polling numbers because this government shutdown will be eclipsed by The Mueller report by the time the next election comes around. So he is free to play "the bad guy" in the negotiations.

Trump may not care about the numbers but the 2020 Republican Senators do. If he polls lower than his ~38%, there may be enough GOP support to elect a new majority leader, bypassing McConnell.

It'd be a shit show but Trump tied himself to the economy. As it goes, so does Trump.

This is all dependent on Mueller's team finding nothing that would be an impeachable offense. We've still got a year and a half until next election.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2019, 06:33:05 AM by MasterStache »

Khaetra

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 565
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5729 on: January 20, 2019, 08:37:35 AM »
Looking into this a bit more, Trump did make an offer today and Democrats flatly refused to negotiate. Granted Trump offered nothing new in the deal but now Democrats just look stubborn while 800,000 federal workers go without pay.

Why would Trump have the weaker position?

Well, Trump thinks he has the upper hand.  Trump took away DACA protection and is offering it back, but for a very limited time and no permanent solution, meaning he could take it away again in an instant and pull the same shutdown game again.  Plus, he didn't negotiate with the Dems, he just came out and said 'this is my offer'. 

The Dems are right to not cave, because giving in this time could mean he (or someone else in the future) could pull the same stunt and shut the Gov't down again over a hissy fit and not getting their way. 

There have been bills that have passed both the House and Senate, but Trump refuses to sign them because they contain no money for "The Wall".  They do contain quite a bit for border security, but none for "The Wall". 

If this whole debacle were truly about border security, wouldn't he have signed those bills and negotiated for "The Wall" later?  I know damn well it isn't about border security.

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 10031
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5730 on: January 20, 2019, 08:55:57 AM »
The more I think about it, the worse this offer from DJT seems. 
As others have pointed out, he was the one who ended DACA - but that's been temporarily halted by the federal courts.  SCOTUS is unlikely to take up the issue until at least summer 2020, when the presidential race will be in full swing.

So offering a 3 year hiatus is pretty much meaningless - especially given the Dems hopes of retaking the WH in under 2 years and DACA in protected status for over one year.

But adding to DJT's poor hand is that he's already taking flak from his right flank for offering 'amnesty' towards 'illegals'. Limbaugh, Coulter and Carlson are taking shots at him, and all he's got left is this base.  I dont see an easy way out for him.  Best strategy might be just to let the legislature craft their deal and then rail against it later.  Some will fall for it.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8362
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5731 on: January 20, 2019, 09:41:56 AM »
As others have pointed out, he was the one who ended DACA - but that's been temporarily halted by the federal courts.  SCOTUS is unlikely to take up the issue until at least summer 2020, when the presidential race will be in full swing.

Right, the DACA offer is a hoax.  He created the DACA problem in the first place, with the stroke of his pen.  You don't punch someone in the face and then try to "negotiate" a payment in exchange for you not punching them in the face anymore.  That's just assault.

Not that Trump hasn't tried this tactic before.  I understand that "The Art of the Deal" includes this very advice, about getting what you want by creating a problem and then offering to fix that problem in exchange for the thing you want.  It's a way to generate artificial leverage, of giving something up in a negotiation without actually giving anything up.

Even if Trump agrees to "fix" DACA, it's only temporary.  He could break it again in a month, or a future president could.  The only way DACA gets truly fixed at this point is if Congress passes a legislative fix, and the courts back it.  If he wants to use DACA as a bargaining chip, he needs to get the republicans in the Senate to agree to fixing it permanently.

The rest of his offer is stuff that both sides already agree needs to get done, like increased funding for immigration courts.  That one is a given from every angle, so it's not exactly a concession or incentive to anyone.  That's like saying he'll re-open the government in exchange for border wall funding.  Every person on every side agrees that government needs to be reopened, so you're not compromising by agreeing with them and doing your damn job.  Quite the contrary, you're kind of an asshole for refusing to do it in the first place.

Quote
Best strategy might be just to let the legislature craft their deal and then rail against it later.  Some will fall for it.

I think we all need to prepare for the possibility that we're going to be listening to Donald Trump's angry tweets until the day he dies.  Long after he is out of office, he's going to be tweeting about crooked Hillary and American carnage and NO COLLUSION in all caps.  It doesn't matter if he loses an election, or goes to jail.  He's always going to be a former president and certain believers will pay him hundreds of thousands of dollars to give fiery speeches about how the country is doomed and only he can fix it.  Even a complete and total electoral refutation of his agenda and policy goals won't stem his twitter tide, he's going to spend the remainder of his days making the same outrageously false claims that made him famous in the first place.  I don't think there is any Darth Vader redemption story in his future.  I predict that he's going down swinging, a liar to his last breath.

That's the "Future of the Trump Presidency" that I worry about.  It will never really be over until he finally has a cheeseburger-inspired coronary.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2019, 09:43:31 AM by sol »

partgypsy

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2934
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5732 on: January 20, 2019, 11:36:50 AM »
Wow the whole creating a problem and then offering to fix it, sounds familiar. I'm originally from Chicago and the Mob would offer people and busnesses "protection" in exchange for money. If they didn't pay for the protection, well maybe bad stuff would happen, you know?

bacchi

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3538
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5733 on: January 20, 2019, 12:44:19 PM »
About that BuzzFeed report...

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/426128-special-counsel-issues-rare-statement-disputing-buzzfeeds-cohen

A Mueller denial could just be a feint. Of course, given who broke the story, it's probably fake. Why do people keep hiring that "journalist?"

I find it interesting that Mueller's team actually said anything. They are normally tight lipped about everything. Also find it interesting they didn't flat out deny the entire BuzzFeed report. Just claimed there were "inaccuracies." I am sure they want zero leaks as they leave no stone un-turned.

Guiliani: "So what if he talked to him about it?"

Are we on step two?

1) Didn't happen!
2) Well, maybe it happened but it wasn't illegal.
3) Ok, it might be illegal but only a little illegal. What's the big deal? Not as bad as Hillary's emails.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2019, 01:32:56 PM by bacchi »

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 10031
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5734 on: January 20, 2019, 12:52:22 PM »
Wow the whole creating a problem and then offering to fix it, sounds familiar. I'm originally from Chicago and the Mob would offer people and busnesses "protection" in exchange for money. If they didn't pay for the protection, well maybe bad stuff would happen, you know?

To be fair, DACA was never a fix (the 'D' stands for 'Deferred', after all).  This entire problem was created when hardline anti-immigration folks decided to criminalize the actions of juveniles (sometimes even babies) and block legitimate paths to citizenship for those individuals ("send them to the 'back of the line'").

Ending DACA just meant we were back to the insane policies pre-2012, when adults who had been in the US since they were infants were being deported to countries they had no memory of and where they couldn't speak the language.  Reinstating the program for 3 years and suggesting it will give time for a permanent 'fix' seems absurd when the problem was well known and well publicized for decades, and 6 years of DACA failed to achieve meaningful immigration reform.  It gets incredibly disingenuous when you view the hard-line stances this current administration has taken on even legal immigration.

gentmach

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 305
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5735 on: January 20, 2019, 12:54:10 PM »
Looking into this a bit more, Trump did make an offer today and Democrats flatly refused to negotiate. Granted Trump offered nothing new in the deal but now Democrats just look stubborn while 800,000 federal workers go without pay.

Why would Trump have the weaker position?

Well, Trump thinks he has the upper hand.  Trump took away DACA protection and is offering it back, but for a very limited time and no permanent solution, meaning he could take it away again in an instant and pull the same shutdown game again.  Plus, he didn't negotiate with the Dems, he just came out and said 'this is my offer'. 

The Dems are right to not cave, because giving in this time could mean he (or someone else in the future) could pull the same stunt and shut the Gov't down again over a hissy fit and not getting their way. 

There have been bills that have passed both the House and Senate, but Trump refuses to sign them because they contain no money for "The Wall".  They do contain quite a bit for border security, but none for "The Wall". 

If this whole debacle were truly about border security, wouldn't he have signed those bills and negotiated for "The Wall" later?  I know damn well it isn't about border security.

The Dems are right not to cave. The problem is that their position is shaky. They find themselves stuck between a promise of "stopping Trump" and getting the government running.

Trump only has to keep Republicans from getting too spooked about the whole thing.

Trump seems to have less to worry about, hence a simpler system to balance. That's why it seems he has the upper hand.

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 10031
  • Location: la belle province
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5736 on: January 20, 2019, 01:28:19 PM »

Trump seems to have less to worry about, hence a simpler system to balance. That's why it seems he has the upper hand.
Trump has to worry about losing his base, which don't want anything resembling 'amnesty'.  A deal was all but inked before those xenophobic talkshow heads pushed him to reject it both back in March and again in December.
Worse for Trump - a plurality of Americans oppose extending the existing border, and a majority if Americans oppose keeping the government shut down to get more border wall funding. At the same time, an overwhelming majority of Americans support a path to citizenship for individuals brought to this country as children (i.e. DACA recipients). 

So Trump's wall is unpopular, using a shutdown to get funding is even more unpopular, and deporting individuals that most see as innocent is extremely unpopular.  Whatever Trump does is going to either piss off his cheerleading section or be very unpopular in polls.

waltworks

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3172
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5737 on: January 20, 2019, 03:26:35 PM »
What I don't understand here is why Pelosi/Democrats aren't making counteroffers. They can be ridiculous counters (full amnesty for all current illegal immigrants, or a permanent DACA fix, or a big anti-gerrymandering/voting rights bill, or any number of other things) which Trump will never agree to, but HE'LL HAVE TO REJECT THEM PUBLICLY. A (permanent) DACA fix in particular is widely popular - why not force Trump to reject that?

The "Pelosi rejects Trump proposal" headlines are wins for Trump unless there are counterproposals beyond "No way".

I mean, really, this seems like an opportunity to me. The dude is obsessed with something idiotic (wall) that a lot of people find disagreeable. But that means you can extract *crazy* concessions (at least in theory), give the dolt some money for the wall, and then either tear it down later or let it fall apart through neglect.

It baffles me that the Democrats don't see this as a huge opportunity. The wall itself is meaningless and won't have any real effect on immigration, but it's a great bargaining chip to get all sorts of useful policy changes if they play their cards right.

-W
« Last Edit: January 20, 2019, 03:31:15 PM by waltworks »

Kris

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3935
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5738 on: January 20, 2019, 03:39:37 PM »
What I don't understand here is why Pelosi/Democrats aren't making counteroffers. They can be ridiculous counters (full amnesty for all current illegal immigrants, or a permanent DACA fix, or a big anti-gerrymandering/voting rights bill, or any number of other things) which Trump will never agree to, but HE'LL HAVE TO REJECT THEM PUBLICLY. A (permanent) DACA fix in particular is widely popular - why not force Trump to reject that?

The "Pelosi rejects Trump proposal" headlines are wins for Trump unless there are counterproposals beyond "No way".

I mean, really, this seems like an opportunity to me. The dude is obsessed with something idiotic (wall) that a lot of people find disagreeable. But that means you can extract *crazy* concessions (at least in theory), give the dolt some money for the wall, and then either tear it down later or let it fall apart through neglect.

It baffles me that the Democrats don't see this as a huge opportunity. The wall itself is meaningless and won't have any real effect on immigration, but it's a great bargaining chip to get all sorts of useful policy changes if they play their cards right.

-W

I don’t know, exactly, but my feeling is that the more they engage, the more it would take focus away from the fact that this is Trump’s shutdown. He caused it, he wanted it, he publicly said he was proud of it. And his “proposals” are ridiculous.

If they start offering things, then the focus turns to whether those offers are good or not. And the longer the shutdown goes, the more people get mad at both sides, instead of just on Trump like they should.

Besides, why offer stuff when Trump will just lie and renege anyway?

Honestly, this is the first time in forever that the Dems aren’t just instantly caving. I’m happy. Don’t negotiate with terrorists.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2019, 03:44:09 PM by Kris »

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8362
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5739 on: January 20, 2019, 03:50:26 PM »
What I don't understand here is why Pelosi/Democrats aren't making counteroffers. They can be ridiculous counters (full amnesty for all current illegal immigrants, or a permanent DACA fix, or a big anti-gerrymandering/voting rights bill, or any number of other things) which Trump will never agree to, but HE'LL HAVE TO REJECT THEM PUBLICLY.

Maybe because Trump has nothing to offer?  Why would you even ask for something you know he can't deliver?

He literally CAN'T offer them anything of substance in exchange for the legislature approving billions of dollars for a wall, because all he has are vague promises to not veto future legislation.  That's his only power.  It's the republicans in Congress who could offer a legislative fix for DACA kids, or approve increased funding for immigration courts, or increased staffing for the border patrol, or an expansion of legal temporary worker visas.  Trump can say anything he likes, but it won't carry any weight at all unless the republicans in Congress agree with it.  And they don't. 

So Trump has no chips.  He's demanded border wall funding, and he has nothing to negotiate with.  He needs to get government reopened and functioning normally again, so that Congress can do it's normal job of negotiating a budget compromises that recognize the diversity of priorities held by the various representatives.  Which is exactly what Congress did back in December, before Trump torpedoed it.  He needs to take that torpedo back, and let Congress decide on a budget, and then he needs to not veto that budget.  He doesn't get to make any demands at all in exchange for letting Congress pass a compromise budget. 

Trump's attempts to entice democrats to vote for border wall funding are empty promises and they know it.  Let's not forget that republicans in both houses have spent the past two years telling Trump he can't have any funding for a border wall.  Republicans who controlled both houses of Congress are the ones that gave us our current government shutdown, because Trump demanded border wall funding and they said no.  Those same republicans are not suddenly going to give him his wall AND some stuff that democrats want, just because Trump tells them to.  They've already told him no to part 1, why would they suddenly support part 1 and and an even more unpalatable part 2?
« Last Edit: January 20, 2019, 03:55:37 PM by sol »

waltworks

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3172
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5740 on: January 20, 2019, 03:58:30 PM »
I agree with all of that, Sol, but Pelosi still needs to make public counteroffers. It's a no-brainer - there are a number of things she could offer that would have widespread democratic and independent support, and would seem broadly reasonable to all but the diehard MAGA folks. Force Trump (or alternately senate Republicans) to reject those proposals.

Let me be a little more clear: the counteroffer strategy won't result in a deal. It *will* make Pelosi and Democrats writ large look good and like the adults in the room, and it will make both Trump and congressional Republicans look bad. So it's cynical, but c'est la vie.

Lower information voters see the CNN scroll that says "Pelosi rejects Trump offer" and they will interpret that as Pelosi being unreasonable. She needs to flip that script.

-W

C-note

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 101
  • Location: Colorado
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5741 on: January 20, 2019, 04:07:11 PM »

I think we all need to prepare for the possibility that we're going to be listening to Donald Trump's angry tweets until the day he dies.  Long after he is out of office, he's going to be tweeting about crooked Hillary and American carnage and NO COLLUSION in all caps.  It doesn't matter if he loses an election, or goes to jail.  He's always going to be a former president and certain believers will pay him hundreds of thousands of dollars to give fiery speeches about how the country is doomed and only he can fix it.  Even a complete and total electoral refutation of his agenda and policy goals won't stem his twitter tide, he's going to spend the remainder of his days making the same outrageously false claims that made him famous in the first place.  I don't think there is any Darth Vader redemption story in his future.  I predict that he's going down swinging, a liar to his last breath.

That's the "Future of the Trump Presidency" that I worry about.  It will never really be over until he finally has a cheeseburger-inspired coronary.

The stuff nightmares are made of.

Kris

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3935
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5742 on: January 20, 2019, 04:08:14 PM »
I agree with all of that, Sol, but Pelosi still needs to make public counteroffers. It's a no-brainer - there are a number of things she could offer that would have widespread democratic and independent support, and would seem broadly reasonable to all but the diehard MAGA folks. Force Trump (or alternately senate Republicans) to reject those proposals.

Let me be a little more clear: the counteroffer strategy won't result in a deal. It *will* make Pelosi and Democrats writ large look good and like the adults in the room, and it will make both Trump and congressional Republicans look bad. So it's cynical, but c'est la vie.

Lower information voters see the CNN scroll that says "Pelosi rejects Trump offer" and they will interpret that as Pelosi being unreasonable. She needs to flip that script.

-W

They’re already the adults in the room. Negotiating with him will just bring them down to his level.

waltworks

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3172
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5743 on: January 20, 2019, 04:26:42 PM »
They’re already the adults in the room. Negotiating with him will just bring them down to his level.

As someone who lives in a very MAGA kind of place, I think you could be right - but at least pretending to negotiate is in their best interests here. "Trump offers, Pelosi rejects" is a losing headline.

-W

MasterStache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2045
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5744 on: January 20, 2019, 04:36:32 PM »
Dems should offer funding for the exact type of wall Trump claimed works in San Antonio. Can’t make this shit up!

Kris

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3935
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5745 on: January 20, 2019, 04:47:16 PM »
They’re already the adults in the room. Negotiating with him will just bring them down to his level.

As someone who lives in a very MAGA kind of place, I think you could be right - but at least pretending to negotiate is in their best interests here. "Trump offers, Pelosi rejects" is a losing headline.

-W

I think you and I are going to have to agree to disagree here. Time will tell which one of us is right, in theory.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8362
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5746 on: January 20, 2019, 05:21:30 PM »
I agree with all of that, Sol, but Pelosi still needs to make public counteroffers

And she will.  It's literally been less than 24 hours.  Let them put together a proposal that actually has the support of the caucus.

IMO, the counteroffer should be conditional on passing a new budget first, to get government reopened at least temporarily, before any negotiations can happen.  I think Pelosi should say "we are prepared to negotiate increased border security funding in exchange for X, after the current budget resolution is passed and the government is reopened."  There is nothing to be gained by passing a budget that wastes billions of dollars on a wall while the gov is still closed.

gentmach

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 305
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5747 on: January 20, 2019, 07:14:01 PM »

Trump seems to have less to worry about, hence a simpler system to balance. That's why it seems he has the upper hand.
Trump has to worry about losing his base, which don't want anything resembling 'amnesty'.  A deal was all but inked before those xenophobic talkshow heads pushed him to reject it both back in March and again in December.
Worse for Trump - a plurality of Americans oppose extending the existing border, and a majority if Americans oppose keeping the government shut down to get more border wall funding. At the same time, an overwhelming majority of Americans support a path to citizenship for individuals brought to this country as children (i.e. DACA recipients). 

So Trump's wall is unpopular, using a shutdown to get funding is even more unpopular, and deporting individuals that most see as innocent is extremely unpopular.  Whatever Trump does is going to either piss off his cheerleading section or be very unpopular in polls.

Midterms just happened. That was the last chance to rebuke him for two years. And a lot can happen in two years.

jim555

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1970
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5748 on: January 20, 2019, 07:18:14 PM »
They shouldn't negotiate at all with him.

waltworks

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3172
Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #5749 on: January 20, 2019, 07:41:24 PM »
The wargaming of proposals depending on what Trump did should have been ready weeks ago. Take control of the narrative and get a counterproposal out NOW. It literally should have been ready 45 minutes after Trump's speech.

-W