So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...

[sol]

UGH! Run Melania, RUN for your life!

For some reason, I doubt that Melania is an MMM reader.  Maybe try Vanity Fair?

[partgypsy]

It's going to be pretty depressing when America gets nuked unexpectedly while Trump is vacationing.

http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/15/politics/trump-hawaii-missile-alarm-timeline/index.html

Maybe I should leapfrog this whole 'America is better than this' attitude and start to figure out if I'd prefer to expatriate or build a bunker.  I definitely plan to take longer vacations outside the US in the coming years, and have plans to go on a moment's notice.  I live in a hurricane state, it's become second nature to abandon everything and run!  I just never thought it would be my home country that I'd be leaving.

Where in the world do you think USA citizens will be welcome after the nukes start flying?

Fortunately the rest of the world is pretty understanding of the fact that the majority of Americans do not support Trump, especially if we show up and say we never supported him and are finally fleeing his crap forever, whatever it takes.

Sounds like the rest of the world might need to build walls to keep all those American refugees out and then charge the US for them.  It's not like the US will be sending their best.  They'll be sending people that have lots of problems, and they'll be bringing those problems to us. They'll be bringing drugs. They'll be bringing crime. They're rapists. And some (I assume) are good people.

lol

[zoltani]

If she is in it for the money it has got to be the worst job on earth to earn it. When I heard she went to FL I was wondering if she took the kid or went alone. I hope she is seeing a divorce lawyer down there and get herself out of the abyss. If I were her, I would hire someone to put a special door in so I could get out without seeing him and I would nail all the doors shut so he couldn't get in!

You've got to have super low or zero self-esteem to marry one of the best narcissists in modern-day politics. That lack of self-esteem can only be satisfied by materialism and constant attention.
Or she's playing the long con, hoping the cards fall in the right order, for the big payday. Being the buffoon that he is, this may be the case that he's being played.

Most people choose romantic partners that are their rough equivalents. People with personality disorders pair up with others that have personality disorders. For narcissists that means they often pair up with borderlines. Being the center of the borderline's world is very empowering and validating to the narcissist. The borderline knows something is wrong with the relationship but due to their own feelings of emptiness and fear of being alone they stay with the narcissist. It's a classic paring.

[Just Joe]

https://news.google.com/news/search/section/q/paula%20white%20church/paula%20white%20church?hl=en&gl=US&ned=us

Are their friggin' kidding me? How distasteful can these people get???

[bacchi]

https://news.google.com/news/search/section/q/paula%20white%20church/paula%20white%20church?hl=en&gl=US&ned=us

Are their friggin' kidding me? How distasteful can these people get???

If I donate $.01, will it cost them more to run the charge through?

[Glenstache]

https://news.google.com/news/search/section/q/paula%20white%20church/paula%20white%20church?hl=en&gl=US&ned=us

Are their friggin' kidding me? How distasteful can these people get???

The prosperity gospel is nothing new. It is also entirely consistent with a belief that people who are poor are loved less than those who are rich (for Jesus must have bestowed that success upon them...). It is bullshit and entirely inconsistent with the actual teachings of the bible, but does allow people to feel pious while making themselves comfortable. Ugh.

[sol]

It is bullshit and entirely inconsistent with the actual teachings of the bible, but does allow people to feel pious while making themselves comfortable. Ugh.

More specifically, it allows people to feel pious while getting rich by making other people suffer in poverty.   Because that's what Jesus would want, apparently.

Mother Theresa was all about it, too.  She saw godliness in poverty.  Is it really so different? 

[jinga nation]

https://news.google.com/news/search/section/q/paula%20white%20church/paula%20white%20church?hl=en&gl=US&ned=us

Are their friggin' kidding me? How distasteful can these people get???

She's a known hack, started her sordid business right here in my city. Right by the strip clubs.
Sin on Saturday, Pray on Sunday. Club to Church. Not just words but actions. Local media vs the Whites was a constant.
We were happy to see her GTFO.
Of course she headed to the Orlando suburbs for 'greener' pastures.

[Just Joe]

I am utterly befuddled by the cast of characters that Trump has surrounded himself with.

This lady has no business soliciting those kind of donations while she is part of the WH effort.

That is a long way from asking poor and ignorant people to send $25 to help put a roof on the new TV church/studio.

I want Trump and his circus out of the WH.

Mueller - hurry up!

[Roadrunner53]

If this was a Netflix series people would be shocked and say none of this would happen in an administration in the White House. Well, we are living it and not imagining it!

[wenchsenior]

I am utterly befuddled by the cast of characters that Trump has surrounded himself with.

This lady has no business soliciting those kind of donations while she is part of the WH effort.

That is along way from asking poor and ignorant people to send $25 to help put a roof on the new TV church studio.

I want Trump and his circus out of the WH.

Mueller - hurry up!

For all of you who are relying on Mueller to come up with something that ends up in Trump's removal, let me remind everyone again:

It is very unlikely that will happen.  In fact, there is absolutely no guarantee that we (the public) will ever even learn the details of this investigation that everyone is antsily waiting on, unless the FBI recommends to the justice department that Trump (or others) be indicted.

1)  Mueller might find voluminous evidence of wrong doing, but if his judgement is that they can't build an airtight legal case, he would not recommend indictment.

2)  Even if he finds overwhelming evidence of wrong doing by Trump, AND can build an airtight legal case, AND recommends indictment, it is completely up to Mueller's boss (currently Rod Rosenstein, but Trump is obviously trying to work up to firing Rosenstein in order to appoint someone more in his own pocket) to decide whether to recommend indictment to the justice department and whether to make the evidence public in any way if he does not recommend indictment.

3)  Even if Trump doesn't fire Rosenstein, AND Rosenstein makes the details of the investigation public, AND he recommends indictment, it still might not happen because the legal community is divided on whether one can indict a sitting president.

4) Regardless of whether indictment happens or clear criminal activity is proven, Trump cannot be removed from office except by impeachment, and the chances of a GOP controlled congress moving to impeach a president popular with their base is almost nonexistent.

5) In order to impeach, Dems would have to take both branches of Congress next November. The House is likely, but the Senate much less so.

6)  Even if the Dems were to take over next November, I think it would strategically stupid of them to try to impeach Trump, because such a move is liable to reactivate his base voters (who might otherwise be somewhat demoralized) for the next election.  Of course, Dems are nearly always stupid at raw political calculus (see recent moronic DACA-related gov't shutdown), so I wouldn't be at all surprised if they shot themselves repeatedly in the foot and ended up driving Trump's approval ratings up.

Anyway, everyone who wants to resist the Trump agenda needs to focus on the next couple of elections, and all the lower races, rather than hoping Mueller is going to remove this problem for us.  We might not ever even hear any details from this investigation, let alone have it conclude in any real action against Trump.

[PathtoFIRE]

If this was a Netflix series people would be shocked and say none of this would happen in an administration in the White House. Well, we are living it and not imagining it!

I think this is part of why I just didn't find last summer's season of Veep as funny as before. Hilarious to imagine top politicians and their staff as incompetent idiots, but not so funny when it actually comes true.

[Roadrunner53]

Just think of all the stuff that has happened in the White House/Congress in just the month of January. A Netflix series couldn't keep up with all the stuff that goes on. The Fire and Fury book, the State of the Union speech, the never ending Russian investigation. The President claiming stock market is up because of him, unemployment is down because of him. Stormy Daniels, resignations, North Korea name calling...who can keep up! Whomever is documenting the history of this presidency better be a fast writer!

[former player]

[...]
I want Trump and his circus out of the WH.

Mueller - hurry up!

For all of you who are relying on Mueller to come up with something that ends up in Trump's removal, let me remind everyone again:

It is very unlikely that will happen.   [...]
Anyway, everyone who wants to resist the Trump agenda needs to focus on the next couple of elections, and all the lower races, rather than hoping Mueller is going to remove this problem for us.  We might not ever even hear any details from this investigation, let alone have it conclude in any real action against Trump.

The most likely outcome is that Mueller will start moving up the board with indictments and guilty pleas in the next year.  There will be people in the campaign, and people currently in the White House, who cease to be active and public in supporting Trump, or working for him, because of that.  The Trump Administration is already having difficulty staffing up, and will probably successively lose some of its more high profile and senior members to the Mueller investigation, becoming less and less able to put on even a facade of competence and continuity.  At some point Mueller's criminal proceedings will probably reach Donald Jr, Kuchner and quite possibly Ivanka, quite possibly for money laundering, which will threaten the Trump financial empire with complete ruin.  At that point I think Trump will lose the plot completely and the Republicans will bail on him in the hope of Pence stabilising things. 

I agree it might not happen until 2020 or after - Nixon won in 1972, after all - and the Dems can't afford to be complacent.

[GuitarStv]

Just think of all the stuff that has happened in the White House/Congress in just the month of January. A Netflix series couldn't keep up with all the stuff that goes on. The Fire and Fury book, the State of the Union speech, the never ending Russian investigation. The President claiming stock market is up because of him, unemployment is down because of him. Stormy Daniels, resignations, North Korea name calling...who can keep up! Whomever is documenting the history of this presidency better be a fast writer!

Sadly, that seems to work in Trump's favour.  He does so much shit wrong all at once that it's hard to keep particular items in mind.  Every time you start to get justifiably outraged about something, it's replaced a day or two later with something else.  It's numbing.

[bacchi]

A Safe Prediction:

The momentum of "safe" GOP seats flipping to the Democrats both at the national level and at the state level will increase. To build on Virginia and Alabama, a Missouri state House district, which was +28 (!) R in 2016, was won by a Democrat this week.

The Dems will also likely win a majority of the state governorships, who will have control over district redrawing in 2021. Even if the districts are redrawn fairly, the Dems will win seats due to increasing urban density and increasing minorities.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2018-governors-races/

Trump's legacy may be a generation of Democratic officeholders.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

I'd hate to be purveying 'fake news' like Trump's conservative base, but is there any truth to this: http://people.com/politics/apprentice-creators-donald-trump-scam

In the recently released Netflix documentary The Confidence Man, two creators of The Apprentice discuss creating the “character” of Donald Trump as a billionaire business tycoon.

“What we did, that was a scam,” says producer Bill Pruitt. “That was an entertainment.”

Pruitt describes Trump’s real office within New York’s Trump Tower as dated, so the show built the boardroom where Trump uttered the now famous line “You’re Fired!” The famous boardroom was a set based on the classy, high-powered office portrayed in the movie Network.

[ncornilsen]

A Safe Prediction:

The momentum of "safe" GOP seats flipping to the Democrats both at the national level and at the state level will increase. To build on Virginia and Alabama, a Missouri state House district, which was +28 (!) R in 2016, was won by a Democrat this week.

The Dems will also likely win a majority of the state governorships, who will have control over district redrawing in 2021. Even if the districts are redrawn fairly, the Dems will win seats due to increasing urban density and increasing minorities.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2018-governors-races/

Trump's legacy may be a generation of Democratic officeholders.

This is where the real damage will be done. Oregon's governor has been a trainwreck of mismanagement, failure, and un-ending cash grabs. Yet, she will likely be re-elected because she can rail on trump and divert attention from her failures. There was real backlash building among the left in Oregon until trump was elected. That seems to have evaporated now.

Oregon, from a gerrymandering standpoint, can't go much further left, luckily.

[bacchi]

This is where the real damage will be done. Oregon's governor has been a trainwreck of mismanagement, failure, and un-ending cash grabs. Yet, she will likely be re-elected because she can rail on trump and divert attention from her failures. There was real backlash building among the left in Oregon until trump was elected. That seems to have evaporated now.

Can't a more honest Democrat run against the Oregon governor in the primary? In this climate, and in Oregon, even a relatively no-namer Democrat could win.

[NoStacheOhio]

I'd hate to be purveying 'fake news' like Trump's conservative base, but is there any truth to this: http://people.com/politics/apprentice-creators-donald-trump-scam

In the recently released Netflix documentary The Confidence Man, two creators of The Apprentice discuss creating the “character” of Donald Trump as a billionaire business tycoon.

“What we did, that was a scam,” says producer Bill Pruitt. “That was an entertainment.”

Pruitt describes Trump’s real office within New York’s Trump Tower as dated, so the show built the boardroom where Trump uttered the now famous line “You’re Fired!” The famous boardroom was a set based on the classy, high-powered office portrayed in the movie Network.

I can't speak to the character thing, but there's nothing surprising about TV producers wanting to sex up the set. It doesn't strike me as particularly deceptive even, it's just a TV set. Most "reality" TV is far more fictional than people want to believe anyway. Yes, it's unscripted, but it's not necessarily documentary.

[partgypsy]

I'd hate to be purveying 'fake news' like Trump's conservative base, but is there any truth to this: http://people.com/politics/apprentice-creators-donald-trump-scam

In the recently released Netflix documentary The Confidence Man, two creators of The Apprentice discuss creating the “character” of Donald Trump as a billionaire business tycoon.

“What we did, that was a scam,” says producer Bill Pruitt. “That was an entertainment.”

Pruitt describes Trump’s real office within New York’s Trump Tower as dated, so the show built the boardroom where Trump uttered the now famous line “You’re Fired!” The famous boardroom was a set based on the classy, high-powered office portrayed in the movie Network.

I can't speak to the character thing, but there's nothing surprising about TV producers wanting to sex up the set. It doesn't strike me as particularly deceptive even, it's just a TV set. Most "reality" TV is far more fictional than people want to believe anyway. Yes, it's unscripted, but it's not necessarily documentary.

yes, that they changed how the office looks, that it's really a set, doesn't surprise or bother me.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

So how do we feel about 2018 Trump?  He's had some time to get his legs under him, obviously positioning for how essential Republican wins are in the upcoming 'mid-term' elections.  Still not a very effective President, but we may have 2.8 more years of this (or more).  I don't know if I want to just come to terms with how difficult it is to get rid of a useless elected leader or continue to fight.  I'm unhappy either way, but I guess I should keep doing what I think is the 'right thing' IMHO.

[ncornilsen]

This is where the real damage will be done. Oregon's governor has been a trainwreck of mismanagement, failure, and un-ending cash grabs. Yet, she will likely be re-elected because she can rail on trump and divert attention from her failures. There was real backlash building among the left in Oregon until trump was elected. That seems to have evaporated now.

Can't a more honest Democrat run against the Oregon governor in the primary? In this climate, and in Oregon, even a relatively no-namer Democrat could win.

They could, but the kind of reforms needed require someone who isn't beholden to the public employee unions.

[Kyle Schuant]

I don't know if I want to just come to terms with how difficult it is to get rid of a useless elected leader or continue to fight.

It's the nature of a presidential republic. You should have thought about that in 1776.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

I don't know if I want to just come to terms with how difficult it is to get rid of a useless elected leader or continue to fight.

It's the nature of a presidential republic. You should have thought about that in 1776.

Maybe this is 1776 revisited?  When the (most powerful!) country in the world can slip off the rails so alarmingly (figureheads tweeting about nuke buttons), maybe the populace should get a little more agitated.  We can sit around and watch gun laws fail us, immigration divide us, and the opioid crisis spin out of control for the next 2+ years, or we can show the world that this is not our preference.  We can at least do something tomorrow, and the next day, instead of roll over and wait in silent hope.  Progress lost is unforgivable unless standing still.  And standing still is only acceptable when you are happy with the world when you wake up. 

In this day and age, we should all be waking up happy and choosing our lifestyle, not wondering if the billions being allocated from our future taxes are at least somewhat acceptable in the short term.  I don't know how we got here, but surely it won't pervert my children's future?  And if it is starting to (with all this anti-Paris Accord, EPA rollback, and Pruitt agenda), surely we will stop it quickly!

And yet, even after the shootings since Trump Las Vegas, Florida no-one seems to care.

[KTG]

If the economy is still running in 2020 like it is right now, Trump will win re-election.

After all, name me one democrat candidate that is going to galvanize the center? It wont be the red-head Kennedy guy. Please.

All Trump will have to do is spread his arms wide and say, "Do you like the economy? Do you like the job numbers?" etc etc and "Do you want to risk bringing in a democrat who will raise taxes?" and he will win.

I am not saying I he gets all the credit, but he will claim it, as any good politician does. The problem is, all this will come crashing down during the next presidential cycle no matter who is president.

The real problem here isn't Trump or the GOP. Its how big of a mess the Democrats are. Its really become a joke of a party.

[DarkandStormy]

The real problem here isn't Trump or the GOP. Its how big of a mess the Democrats are. Its really become a joke of a party.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/13/politics/democrats-flip-florida-house-seat/index.html

That swing in Democrats' direction made the Florida contest the 36th GOP-held state legislative seat to change parties since Trump took office.

Yes, tell me more about this joke of a party.

[KTG]

The real problem here isn't Trump or the GOP. Its how big of a mess the Democrats are. Its really become a joke of a party.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/13/politics/democrats-flip-florida-house-seat/index.html

That swing in Democrats' direction made the Florida contest the 36th GOP-held state legislative seat to change parties since Trump took office.

Yes, tell me more about this joke of a party.

If the democrats had their act together, Trump would never have been president. Its mostly anti-trump that's driving their wins, not that they offer better ideas on the economy.

[KTG]

Let me add too that I am neither pro-republican nor pro-democrat. I think both parties are full of morons so I am independent.

And I actually voted for Hilary because my girlfriend at the time was from Iran and I know the policies on immigration Trump would enact would affect her. And I was right.

So I don't want any one to think I am only critical of one party here.

[caracarn]

UGH! Run Melania, RUN for your life!

For some reason, I doubt that Melania is an MMM reader.  Maybe try Vanity Fair?

She might be.  She's looking to figure out a SWR so she can FIRE after she leaves.

[bacchi]

If the democrats had their act together, Trump would never have been president.

Clinton did win the popular vote so more people wanted her over Trump. You're right, though, in that Clinton ignored crucial states and failed to get out the vote where it was needed.

Its mostly anti-trump that's driving their wins, not that they offer better ideas on the economy.

Well...inspired by Trump, Republicans have suddenly found Jesus in their love of tariffs. Long term, a repeat of Smoot will wreak havoc on America's economy and competitiveness. The foreign corporate profit tax break was a good idea but it's also bad timing. Same with the massive infrastructure boost -- good idea but it's bad timing.

[DarkandStormy]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/16/politics/trump-terrible-week-analysis/index.html

Holy **** even by Trump standards, this was a disaster of a week for The Cheeto:

-Special Counsel Robert Mueller issues 13 indictments of Russian nationals for meddling in the 2016 election.
-Rick Gates is nearing a plea deal with Mueller.
-Trump's personal lawyer Michael Cohen admits he (Cohen) is the one who paid Stormy Daniels $130K to keep quiet about Trump's affair with her.
-Details of an alleged affair with Playboy Playmate Karen McDougal are published.
-FBI Director Chris Wray directly refutes the White House story on Rob Porter.  The Porter scandal spills into a second week as White House officials can't present a consistent story or timeline.
-EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt admits to flying first class on the dime of taxpayers because he doesn't want to hear from voters or talk to them on flights.
-An inspector general's report shows that Veterans Administration head David Shulkin's chief of staff doctored an email and made a series of false statements in order to justify the use of government funds for Shulkin's wife to accompany him on a trip to Europe in 2017.

[GuitarStv]

Draining the swamp sure seems to have left a lot of stinky black mud.

[wenchsenior]

And yet, Trump and the GOP's approval ratings have been ticking up.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

If Trump survives a full 4 year term, it speaks more to our calcified blind spots and wanting to believe in 'the system' (in general, not Mustachians).  The guy must be miserable, in a never blinking public eye that is hungry for any 'sexual misconduct', questionable Russian relations, shady financial transactions; this guy is a gold mine!  His past of elaborate pay-offs to hookers and playboy bunnies is a dream come true.  I have a feeling we won't be disappointed as the archaeologists / anthropologists sift through this era in real time and for years to come - as long as America survives.  Shit could also go south in even more of a hurry than just letting American companies pollute with abandon; as in becoming embroiled in an armed conflict with the US undeniably cast as the bad guys.

[Kyle Schuant]

If Trump survives a full 4 year term -

He will not only complete this term, he will be elected for a second term, and a year or two into that second term there will be proposals to alter the constitution to allow him a third term.

The US is declining, with spiralling debt, expansion of losing wars now in their second decade (consider: if US involvement in WWII had gone as long as Afghanistan has gone so far, the war would still have been going in 1958), decline of infrastructure, lack of manufacturing of essential machinery (your transformers are all made in Europe), and so on. During such a decline, political parties have 3 options:

1. find a way to decline gracefully
2. deny there is a decline
3. offer a solution to reverse the decline

The first is not acceptable to Americans, it rarely is to declining Great Powers. The second is an obvious ignoring of reality, which is why so many politicians were knocked back (not only Clinton, but Sanders, and a stack of people in both parties). That leaves the third.

Now, there almost certainly is no solution, or if there is it requires systemic changes which Americans would never accept, like getting rid of private automobiles, massive import tariffs (goodbye Walmart), withdrawal of US troops worldwide and turning the US military into a small force for self-defence, raising taxes and cutting benefits like old age pensions, or else repudiating all foreign-held debt, and so on. But none of those solutions would be acceptable to most Americans.

Thus, we are left with people who merely talk about solutions, like the Orange Buffoon. Which is why he will not only get through his whole first term, but get a second. The fact that he does not actually Make America Great Again will be irrelevant, it'll all be someone else's fault; in this he is like most political leaders, always blaming the last government for all the troubles, even if it was ten years ago.

Have fun! America. LOL.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

If Trump survives a full 4 year term -

He will not only complete this term, he will be elected for a second term, and a year or two into that second term there will be proposals to alter the constitution to allow him a third term.

The US is declining, with spiralling debt, expansion of losing wars now in their second decade (consider: if US involvement in WWII had gone as long as Afghanistan has gone so far, the war would still have been going in 1958), decline of infrastructure, lack of manufacturing of essential machinery (your transformers are all made in Europe), and so on. During such a decline, political parties have 3 options:

1. find a way to decline gracefully
2. deny there is a decline
3. offer a solution to reverse the decline

The first is not acceptable to Americans, it rarely is to declining Great Powers. The second is an obvious ignoring of reality, which is why so many politicians were knocked back (not only Clinton, but Sanders, and a stack of people in both parties). That leaves the third.

Now, there almost certainly is no solution, or if there is it requires systemic changes which Americans would never accept, like getting rid of private automobiles, massive import tariffs (goodbye Walmart), withdrawal of US troops worldwide and turning the US military into a small force for self-defence, raising taxes and cutting benefits like old age pensions, or else repudiating all foreign-held debt, and so on. But none of those solutions would be acceptable to most Americans.

Thus, we are left with people who merely talk about solutions, like the Orange Buffoon. Which is why he will not only get through his whole first term, but get a second. The fact that he does not actually Make America Great Again will be irrelevant, it'll all be someone else's fault; in this he is like most political leaders, always blaming the last government for all the troubles, even if it was ten years ago.

Have fun! America. LOL.

Trust me, I hate many of the ugly parts of America as the next Global Citizen.  And this last year or so is like 'America in your face', but I'm still not apoplectic quite yet.  It may get a little worse before it gets better, but America still has a lot of really cool citizens.  As long as we don't allow trolling from Russians, we'll be OK.  That's really all that matters - that we re-take our elections to be unbiased.  If social media can influence votes, we're all screwed.  At that point, a sophisticated minority can buy elections and worse.  All we need is for enough Government to fully proclaim that social media and biased media was compromised.  I would hope the Republic has more to lose by turning a blind eye than to allow the President to operate against the nations best interests.

I think we'll get there - https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2018/02/16/calif-man-admits-role-russian-meddling/347381002/

[Kyle Schuant]

That's really all that matters - that we re-take our elections to be unbiased. 

This puts you in the "deny there is a decline" category.

Oh well, a fish can't see the water.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

That's really all that matters - that we re-take our elections to be unbiased. 

This puts you in the "deny there is a decline" category.

Oh well, a fish can't see the water.

Perfect example of taking a single statement out of context.  Hopefully you (and others) read my whole short text to grasp the sentiment that this was meant as a priority to fix the other things I lamented on.

[sol]

He will not only complete this term, he will be elected for a second term, and a year or two into that second term there will be proposals to alter the constitution to allow him a third term.

That's a bold prediction, considering that his approval rating has plummeted since the election and polls suggest that today Trump would lose to Clinton, Sanders, Biden, Booker, Warren, or even a hypothetical generic Democratic opponent.  Just about every special election since November 2016 has repudiated Trump.  His own party politicians are only lukewarm on having him run again.

Lots can change between now and the next presidential election, but the current trend looks pretty bad for a second term of Trump.

[nick663]

He will not only complete this term, he will be elected for a second term, and a year or two into that second term there will be proposals to alter the constitution to allow him a third term.

That's a bold prediction, considering that his approval rating has plummeted since the election and polls suggest that today Trump would lose to Clinton, Sanders, Biden, Booker, Warren, or even a hypothetical generic Democratic opponent.  Just about every special election since November 2016 has repudiated Trump.  His own party politicians are only lukewarm on having him run again.

Lots can change between now and the next presidential election, but the current trend looks pretty bad for a second term of Trump.

I wouldn't say it "plummeted."  It has followed the trajectory of a first year president as people that were "giving him a chance" decide they have seen enough.


Gallup polling:
Trump:  (approve/disapprove)
1/22/2017:  45/45
1/21/2018:  36/59


Obama: (approve/disapprove)
1/23/2009:  68/12
1/23/2010:  47/46

I agree though that he has an uphill battle to reelection.  He won in 2016 by the skin of his teeth and reelection is always more difficult because you have to defend the worst parts of your 3.5 years as president.  Big item will be jobs in the rust belt as those voters delivered the victory for him and may decide to not show up if nothing has changed.

[Kyle Schuant]

And the polls said he would never be made the Republican candidate, and if made the candidate would never win the Presidency. So I think there might be an issue with the polling.

Now, if the US had compulsory voting and an independent electoral authority, things would be different. But you don't, so there it is: there can be big electoral surprises.

Remember too that he has differentiated himself from the Republican party as a whole. He ran his campaign as an insurgency taking over the party. And this party quite often stands against him in Congress. So just because Reps are being booted out doesn't mean he would be.

Remember that in a two-party system you don't have to be the best and most-loved candidate, you just have to be the least worst and least-hated candidate. It's the choice between having your leg cut off at the knee or the hip. It's like an American woman friend of mine commented: people wonder why any women would vote for Trump, as he's a misogynist sexual harasser - but virtually every male candidate is, so this is nothing new for women. Trump just boasts openly of doing what Bill Clinton did surreptitiously, but in the end it's still a man sexually harassing women.

Again, since America is declining, any candidate has to do one of three things,

1. find a way to decline gracefully
2. deny there is a decline
3. offer a solution to reverse the decline

If a nominee adopts the first, they will never be that party's final candidate. If they adopt the second, they may become the party's candidate, but can only win if their opponent is also denying a decline. Offering a solution will always win over denying there is a problem, for example Sanders would have beaten Romney or any of those other guys.

The most common nominee is the one who denies the decline, and the nature of a major party is that it's most likely to put forward a candidate like that; the Reps were trying to do that, but Trump led an insurgency to usurp the party leadership, he now has the (inside the party) advantage of incumbency. So it's very likely that the Democrats will do that again, and a decline denialist will always lose against one offering solutions.

You'll have Trump win again in 2020, unless for some reason he chooses not to stand, like say his business interests are declining without his extremely competent and close attention.

[nick663]

And the polls said he would never be made the Republican candidate, and if made the candidate would never win the Presidency. So I think there might be an issue with the polling.

He was well within the margin of error for most of the general election.  Pundits may have written him off but the polling didn't.

[bacchi]

And the polls said he would never be made the Republican candidate, and if made the candidate would never win the Presidency. So I think there might be an issue with the polling.

He was well within the margin of error for most of the general election.  Pundits may have written him off but the polling didn't.

Also, Trump got fewer votes than Romney. It was Clinton that did poorly, and not Trump that did well.

Those Democrats that didn't vote won't make the same mistake again.

[Gin1984]

And the polls said he would never be made the Republican candidate, and if made the candidate would never win the Presidency. So I think there might be an issue with the polling.

He was well within the margin of error for most of the general election.  Pundits may have written him off but the polling didn't.

Also, Trump got fewer votes than Romney. It was Clinton that did poorly, and not Trump that did well.

Those Democrats that didn't vote won't make the same mistake again.

I disagree with that.  After Kennedy gave the rebuttal speech, I saw the same liberals who were Sanders supporters can lashing out at him for not being "liberal" enough.  And saying that if he ran for president, don't support him.

[DarkandStormy]

Executive Time went well this morning, I see.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Let's be honest, the best possible candidate for a foreign-influenced election is one in with a reality star like Trump.  It was the perfect confluence of events - the rise (maybe peak) of social media, the backlash against Obama / 2-term Democrat establishment, and the idea that Hillary was an extension of all that the was currently wrong with the recent past (status quo) coupled with the long term (Bill Clinton) past.

What is confusing is that the past under Obama didn't really seem that bad.  If he'd had a 3rd term, I would have slept well.  Sure, there were tensions in the Middle East (perennial Israel / Palestine and Iran and Afghanistan) and North Korea was still flaring up, but these were known and contained.     

If I wanted to destroy the US, Trump is the one incredibly long-shot Presidential candidate that would make it possible.  Any of the others would've credibly resisted foreign influence, or at least been restrained.  During this short period, we have already heard plenty of anecdotes about how few moral posts Trump has.  Stormy Daniels, Karen McDougal...  I google Trump Hookers and get all sorts of sordid links.... 

I never would have imagined America could fall this far, from such a great height, so fast.

But now it has basically already happened.  Hope y'all have seen this:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCjk_NPsIqU&t=3s

[JLee]

Let's be honest, the best possible candidate for a foreign-influenced election is one in with a reality star like Trump.  It was the perfect confluence of events - the rise (maybe peak) of social media, the backlash against Obama / 2-term Democrat establishment, and the idea that Hillary was an extension of all that the was currently wrong with the recent past (status quo) coupled with the long term (Bill Clinton) past.

What is confusing is that the past under Obama didn't really seem that bad.  If he'd had a 3rd term, I would have slept well.  Sure, there were tensions in the Middle East (perennial Israel / Palestine and Iran and Afghanistan) and North Korea was still flaring up, but these were known and contained.     

If I wanted to destroy the US, Trump is the one incredibly long-shot Presidential candidate that would make it possible.  Any of the others would've credibly resisted foreign influence, or at least been restrained.  During this short period, we have already heard plenty of anecdotes about how few moral posts Trump has.  Stormy Daniels, Karen McDougal...  I google Trump Hookers and get all sorts of sordid links.... 

I never would have imagined America could fall this far, from such a great height, so fast.

But now it has basically already happened.  Hope y'all have seen this:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCjk_NPsIqU&t=3s

I found this today and it seems to sum it up pretty well.

http://www.cracked.com/blog/6-reasons-trumps-rise-that-no-one-talks-about/

Note that it was written before the election, too.

[caracarn]

And the polls said he would never be made the Republican candidate, and if made the candidate would never win the Presidency. So I think there might be an issue with the polling.

Now, if the US had compulsory voting and an independent electoral authority, things would be different. But you don't, so there it is: there can be big electoral surprises.

Remember too that he has differentiated himself from the Republican party as a whole. He ran his campaign as an insurgency taking over the party. And this party quite often stands against him in Congress. So just because Reps are being booted out doesn't mean he would be.

Remember that in a two-party system you don't have to be the best and most-loved candidate, you just have to be the least worst and least-hated candidate. It's the choice between having your leg cut off at the knee or the hip. It's like an American woman friend of mine commented: people wonder why any women would vote for Trump, as he's a misogynist sexual harasser - but virtually every male candidate is, so this is nothing new for women. Trump just boasts openly of doing what Bill Clinton did surreptitiously, but in the end it's still a man sexually harassing women.

Again, since America is declining, any candidate has to do one of three things,

1. find a way to decline gracefully
2. deny there is a decline
3. offer a solution to reverse the decline

If a nominee adopts the first, they will never be that party's final candidate. If they adopt the second, they may become the party's candidate, but can only win if their opponent is also denying a decline. Offering a solution will always win over denying there is a problem, for example Sanders would have beaten Romney or any of those other guys.

The most common nominee is the one who denies the decline, and the nature of a major party is that it's most likely to put forward a candidate like that; the Reps were trying to do that, but Trump led an insurgency to usurp the party leadership, he now has the (inside the party) advantage of incumbency. So it's very likely that the Democrats will do that again, and a decline denialist will always lose against one offering solutions.

You'll have Trump win again in 2020, unless for some reason he chooses not to stand, like say his business interests are declining without his extremely competent and close attention.

So in your expert fortune telling, as America declines who's going to take its place?  Australia?

[GuitarStv]

So in your expert fortune telling, as America declines who's going to take its place?  Australia?

Most experts are pointing at China.