So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...

[partgypsy]

I think most of the damage Trump is going to do is in nominating judges to the federal bench. Like this guy who when asked the most basic legal questions, couldn't answer anything.

https://twitter.com/SenWhitehouse/status/941484131757838337

Jeez, maybe I should be a nominated to the bench as well. I think I'm actually more qualified.

The qualification this administration is looking for is not the type that you get by reading law books.

Just another way Trump is giving us the middle finger.

[infogoon]

I think most of the damage Trump is going to do is in nominating judges to the federal bench. Like this guy who when asked the most basic legal questions, couldn't answer anything.

https://twitter.com/SenWhitehouse/status/941484131757838337

Jeez, maybe I should be a nominated to the bench as well. I think I'm actually more qualified.

The qualification this administration is looking for is not the type that you get by reading law books.

Books are for coastal elitists.

[A Definite Beta Guy]

His endorsement of Handel showed how toxic he is - he turned a Republican stronghold into a tossup.  Amazing.

This does not follow from any of your data. If Trump had NOT endorsed Handel and said nothing, what would be the likely result?

You want me to predict the past based on a data point that didn't occur?

Yes. You should stand by your claims if you actually believe them.

[MDM]

Federal bench appointments are lifetime appointments and need a majority of the House and two-thirds of the Senate to impeach and remove - it basically never happens. So if these guys get through that's it.

Edited to add the link context since this got moved to the next page: https://twitter.com/SenWhitehouse/status/941484131757838337

Sanity prevails: Matthew Petersen withdraws as judicial nominee - CNNPolitics

[Barbaebigode]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/21/united-nations-un-vote-donald-trump-jerusalem-israel

More winning. The US will be taking a lot of names.

[DarkandStormy]

His endorsement of Handel showed how toxic he is - he turned a Republican stronghold into a tossup.  Amazing.

This does not follow from any of your data. If Trump had NOT endorsed Handel and said nothing, what would be the likely result?

You want me to predict the past based on a data point that didn't occur?

Yes. You should stand by your claims if you actually believe them.

You realize I can't answer your initial question, right?  Either way, it's an idiotic claim that Trump endorsements actually made the race CLOSER given how unpopular he is.

[Davnasty]

His endorsement of Handel showed how toxic he is - he turned a Republican stronghold into a tossup.  Amazing.

This does not follow from any of your data. If Trump had NOT endorsed Handel and said nothing, what would be the likely result?

You want me to predict the past based on a data point that didn't occur?

Yes. You should stand by your claims if you actually believe them.

You realize I can't answer your initial question, right?  Either way, it's an idiotic claim that Trump endorsements actually made the race CLOSER given how unpopular he is.

I think this is kind of the point, ADBG was just pointing out that you were making claims based on data that doesn't exist. There is no control in which there was no endorsement so there's nothing to prove this is causation and not correlation.

On the other hand you can compare this race to the past, as you did, and this was a republican stronghold. My opinion is that Trump's endorsement was harmful but I also suspect the media attention brought out previously inactive voters who came out for the sole purpose of voting for a democrat/against a republican and some republicans were frustrated enough with their party that the Trump nomination didn't really factor into it. Long story short, there is evidence but not proof that Trump endorsements are harmful.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

This discussion meanders around but the general view is Trump's endorsement probably mattered very little (from no impact to very small boost to Moore).

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Just a heads up, ARS banned me for a month when I expressed an opinion he didn't like.  I used to post freely on this forum but I am now being 'watched' (as my account tells me).  So I'm not posting any opinions and I may be shut down entirely at any minute.  Kinda funny for someone who started this thread, eh?

[sol]

Just a heads up, ARS banned me for a month when I expressed an opinion he didn't like.  I used to post freely on this forum but I am now being 'watched' (as my account tells me).  So I'm not posting any opinions and I may be shut down entirely at any minute.  Kinda funny for someone who started this thread, eh?

Don't take it personally.  I'm pretty sure at least half of the regular posters are at least 10% watched. 

[Davnasty]

Just a heads up, ARS banned me for a month when I expressed an opinion he didn't like.  I used to post freely on this forum but I am now being 'watched' (as my account tells me).  So I'm not posting any opinions and I may be shut down entirely at any minute.  Kinda funny for someone who started this thread, eh?

I suspect there's an awful lot of opinions on here that he doesn't like so there was probably a bit more to it than that. But even if there wasn't we've got a very few people monitoring much heated debate on this forum and without the looming threat of being banned I suspect we'd see intelligent discussion devolve into insult a lot more often. I know there have been times when I wanted to tell someone what I really thought but decided against it based on the forum rules.

If someone who volunteers their time to keep these forums respectable has to make judgment calls on a regular basis and makes a mistake now and then I'd try to just let it go (not saying I wouldn't feel offended, I probably would :). I still see this as a place where I can express my opinions freely as long as I take the time to consider how my words may be interpreted by others in addition to my true meaning in writing them.

[sequoia]

Just a heads up, ARS banned me for a month when I expressed an opinion he didn't like.  I used to post freely on this forum but I am now being 'watched' (as my account tells me).  So I'm not posting any opinions and I may be shut down entirely at any minute.  Kinda funny for someone who started this thread, eh?

Dumb but honest question, who is ARS? The moderator?

[sol]

Dumb but honest question, who is ARS? The moderator?

arebelspy is one of the site's global moderators, and was an early avid contributor to the forum.  We see less of him these days, as he's out travelling with this family.

He's banned me before, too.  I'm over it.

[former player]

Hasn't banned me yet, I'll have to work a bit harder.

[sol]

Hasn't banned me yet, I'll have to work a bit harder.

You're not one of the cool kids until you've felt the calm, fatherly disappointment of the rebelspy banhammer.  It hurts him more than it hurts you.

[2Birds1Stone]

Just a heads up, ARS banned me for a month when I expressed an opinion he didn't like.  I used to post freely on this forum but I am now being 'watched' (as my account tells me).  So I'm not posting any opinions and I may be shut down entirely at any minute.  Kinda funny for someone who started this thread, eh?

Maybe not ARS specifically but the moderation on this forum is very biased to favor the left. Just be careful who you trigger.

[sol]

Maybe not ARS specifically but the moderation on this forum is very biased to favor the left. Just be careful who you trigger.

Nah, I'm pretty left and I've been banned before too.  Mostly you get banned for being deliberately inflammatory, not for the content of your ideas but for the way you express them.

Try to keep your comments constructive and on point for the thread you're in, and you can express pretty much any left/right opinion you feel like.  Unless your ideas are really just personal attacks on other forum members, which we're definitely seeing a bit more of these days.

[2Birds1Stone]

Maybe not ARS specifically but the moderation on this forum is very biased to favor the left. Just be careful who you trigger.

Nah, I'm pretty left and I've been banned before too.  Mostly you get banned for being deliberately inflammatory, not for the content of your ideas but for the way you express them.

Try to keep your comments constructive and on point for the thread you're in, and you can express pretty much any left/right opinion you feel like.  Unless your ideas are really just personal attacks on other forum members, which we're definitely seeing a bit more of these days.

People just need to treat each other better in general.

That's interesting to note though.

[JLee]

Maybe not ARS specifically but the moderation on this forum is very biased to favor the left. Just be careful who you trigger.

Nah, I'm pretty left and I've been banned before too.  Mostly you get banned for being deliberately inflammatory, not for the content of your ideas but for the way you express them.

Try to keep your comments constructive and on point for the thread you're in, and you can express pretty much any left/right opinion you feel like.  Unless your ideas are really just personal attacks on other forum members, which we're definitely seeing a bit more of these days.

Bingo.

The trend that I've noticed lately (in general, not specifically on the MMM forums) is that the default/common right-wing argument is fairly likely to be (or end up in) a personal attack, which may lead to an initial / superficial appearance of "mods have a heavy left-wing bias."

The forums here are unusually polite and respectful when it comes to political discussion, which I appreciate.

[sol]

The forums here are unusually polite and respectful when it comes to political discussion, which I appreciate.

Shut up, you stupid-snowflake-libtard/angry-redneck-racist.

Wait, am I doing it right?

(moderator note:  inappropriate post is a clearly sarcastic example of what NOT to do in political discussions on the forum; please don't ban me again.)

[kayvent]

The forums here are unusually polite and respectful when it comes to political discussion, which I appreciate.

Shut up, you stupid-snowflake-libtard/angry-redneck-racist.

Wait, am I doing it right?

(moderator note:  inappropriate post is a clearly sarcastic example of what NOT to do in political discussions on the forum; please don't ban me again.)

Hearing that you got banned makes me surprised I've not been perma-banned.

[sol]

Hearing that you got banned makes me surprised I've not been perma-banned.

Multiple times. 

I'm also on the naughty list of "watched" posters.  Basically, anytime another member reports you for hurting their feelings, you'll get tagged.  Sometimes their feelings are hurt by hearing facts they find uncomfortable, sometimes by misinterpreting your intentions, and sometimes because you're kind of being a dick.

If you'd like, I can start reporting you for hurting my feelings too. 

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Just a heads up, ARS banned me for a month when I expressed an opinion he didn't like.  I used to post freely on this forum but I am now being 'watched' (as my account tells me).  So I'm not posting any opinions and I may be shut down entirely at any minute.  Kinda funny for someone who started this thread, eh?

Don't take it personally.  I'm pretty sure at least half of the regular posters are at least 10% watched.

Yeah, I'm over it now, thanks for all the supportive discussion.  It's a little embarrassing to act butthurt over something that was most likely caused by simple miscommunication, at the time I was banned I was genuinely interested in engaging in a discussion and understanding the other person's point of view.  I've never been banned from a site and is so different than a normal conversation IRL.  Once I was banned, I couldn't even go apologize if I'd accidentally said something hurtful, so that kinda sucked for me.  Life is way too short for me to be offending others in a community that I appreciate and want to support.

[GuitarStv]

If it makes you feel better, I just recently got off the moderator watchlist.  I don't believe that they're particularly left/right tilted in their moderation, but they don't like it when you're being a dick (at least, that was the case for me).

:P

[former player]

Let's find out if it's against the terms and conditions to call President Donald J Trump a moron.  Because I have no other explanation for this.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump

ETA:
 
"Donald J. Trump Verified account @realDonaldTrump 19h
 
In the East, it could be the COLDEST New Year’s Eve on record. Perhaps we could use a little bit of that good old Global Warming that our Country, but not other countries, was going to pay TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS to protect against. Bundle up!"

[DarkandStormy]

Let's find out if it's against the terms and conditions to call President Donald J Trump a moron.  Because I have no other explanation for this.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump

Everything with the Cheeto has to be "THE BEST EVER" or "THE MOST EVER."  The state-run propaganda news network feeds into this by making outlandish and false claims ("deregulated the economy the most of any President in the last 100 years") and the Cheeto picks it up and runs with it.

Facts don't matter anymore.  Reality doesn't matter.  I hate 2017.

[WhiteTrashCash]

All in all, 2017 didn't hold a candle to 2016 in the level of dumpster fire insanity. I actually ended up making quite a bit of money.

Trump's more impoverished supporters didn't seem to really benefit, but that's on them, I guess. It was fairly obvious before the election that we were dealing with a loudmouth, short-fuse braggart with no diplomatic ability and few skills that would translate to managing national interests in any meaningful way, but he had been on TV a lot, so I suppose that was sort of impressive in its own way.

One interesting side effect of benefitting from Trump Trade was that I was able to shutdown some of the histrionic behavior on social media from white trash acquaintances I knew from back home by telling them that I had more money than them. They would clam up when I said that, because they truly believe that money is tied to moral value and the more you have, the better you are. Isn't that kind of depressing?

It reminds me of how white trash see wealth in magical terms and they believe that people who have money are better people whom God smiles on more than others. In my opinion, that's a big reason why they continue to support Trump even though he hasn't delivered on much of anything he promised them.

[2Birds1Stone]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-rolls-back-post-deepwater-horizon-offshore-safety-regulations

Cause you know, the oil industry won't survive without $28M/year in savings.........what the actual fuck.

[OurTown]

So far in 2017, no nuclear war, no debt limit default.  Winner!  If 2018 goes as well, it will be another winner.

[JLee]

Let's find out if it's against the terms and conditions to call President Donald J Trump a moron.  Because I have no other explanation for this.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump

I can almost feel brain cells dying...

[kayvent]

Let's find out if it's against the terms and conditions to call President Donald J Trump a moron.  Because I have no other explanation for this.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump

I can almost feel brain cells dying...

We occasionally share @realDonaldTrump's and @TrumpDBA's (https://twitter.com/TrumpDBA) tweets on Slack at work for a good laugh.

[DarkandStormy]

So far in 2017, no nuclear war, no debt limit default.  Winner!  If 2018 goes as well, it will be another winner.

That's your threshold?  Good lord.

[bacchi]

Trump is setting up a Mueller firing. He has a political win and Foxnews is beating the drum.

https://www.cnn.com/2017/12/28/politics/trump-russia-investigation-mueller-fair-nyt/index.html

Mueller will be "fair;" if he charges another Trump staffer, he won't be "fair" anymore and he'll get the axe.

"I have the absolute right to do what I want with the Justice Department. But for purposes of hopefully thinking I'm going to be treated fairly, I've stayed uninvolved with this particular matter."

My 2018 prediction: Mueller will get the axe immediately after the next move he makes (or right before, if it's leaked).

[DarkandStormy]

Only Rod Rosenstein can fire Mueller.  Trump doesn't have the authority.

His only option is a Saturday Massacre Part II.

[bacchi]

Only Rod Rosenstein can fire Mueller.  Trump doesn't have the authority.

His only option is a Saturday Massacre Part II.

Yep but Mueller gets shitcanned no matter how far Trump goes down the org chart.

Surprisingly, Nixon support was still high even after he promoted Bork to do the firing. His support only started declining in the months after. At the end, there was still a core contingent who thought he didn't do anything wrong (hyper-partisans and fascists, mostly).

Mueller will wait until he has a lot of evidence on someone big. Kushner would do. Trump goes ballistic, Mueller gets fired, and Trump's numbers go lower than they already are.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Apparently The Donald has decided to foment tensions overseas again (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42519054).  Does he think his 70 years qualify him to weigh in on centuries old conflicts?  And why is he always on the most divisive side (especially since the citizens of the US have nothing to gain from him tweeting this):

Many reports of peaceful protests by Iranian citizens fed up with regime’s corruption & its squandering of the nation’s wealth to fund terrorism abroad. Iranian govt should respect their people’s rights, including right to express themselves. The world is watching! #IranProtests)

On one hand, it's impressive what an individual (representing the US) can do in 5 minutes of uninformed social media posting, but on the other hand it is quite depressing what millions are allowing him to do and that anyone takes this seriously.  At this point, I just have to believe that the world comes through this test stronger than when we began.

[former player]

Only Rod Rosenstein can fire Mueller.  Trump doesn't have the authority.

His only option is a Saturday Massacre Part II.

Yep but Mueller gets shitcanned no matter how far Trump goes down the org chart.

Surprisingly, Nixon support was still high even after he promoted Bork to do the firing. His support only started declining in the months after. At the end, there was still a core contingent who thought he didn't do anything wrong (hyper-partisans and fascists, mostly).

Mueller will wait until he has a lot of evidence on someone big. Kushner would do. Trump goes ballistic, Mueller gets fired, and Trump's numbers go lower than they already are.

I think when push comes to shove Trump will throw just about anyone under the bus in order to save himself - he will be all "I didn't know they were doing that" and because he doesn't do email there may not be any solid proof, other than the testimony of known liars, that he did. 

I don't think Kushner is likely to be his sticking point (no sign of him bailing Kushner out of his financial problems with 666 5th Avenue, for instance).  Donald Jr and Ivanka might be but even then I can't see him going the Flynn route and pleading guilty himself in order to spare them.

[GuitarStv]

Apparently The Donald has decided to foment tensions overseas again (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42519054).  Does he think his 70 years qualify him to weigh in on centuries old conflicts?  And why is he always on the most divisive side (especially since the citizens of the US have nothing to gain from him tweeting this):

Many reports of peaceful protests by Iranian citizens fed up with regime’s corruption & its squandering of the nation’s wealth to fund terrorism abroad. Iranian govt should respect their people’s rights, including right to express themselves. The world is watching! #IranProtests)

On one hand, it's impressive what an individual (representing the US) can do in 5 minutes of uninformed social media posting, but on the other hand it is quite depressing what millions are allowing him to do and that anyone takes this seriously.  At this point, I just have to believe that the world comes through this test stronger than when we began.

It's amazing he has the balls to talk about "right of expression" but was calling NFL players "Son of bitches" for doing the same.

Trump is also on the record calling freedom of the press 'disgusting'.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Seriously, DJT is losing his mind.  His last two Tweets are like a drunk idiot saying the same thing over and over and hoping to start a fight:

The entire world understands that the good people of Iran want change, and, other than the vast military power of the United States, that Iran’s people are what their leaders fear the most....

Oppressive regimes cannot endure forever, and the day will come when the Iranian people will face a choice. The world is watching!

[bacchi]

I don't think Kushner is likely to be his sticking point (no sign of him bailing Kushner out of his financial problems with 666 5th Avenue, for instance).  Donald Jr and Ivanka might be but even then I can't see him going the Flynn route and pleading guilty himself in order to spare them.

Yeah, I think you're right. Kushner will go under the bus if needed.


Re: Trump and Iran

Nothing like a war to improve ratings and he's all about ratings. He needs an international incident, though, and he's hoping he can provoke one. Maybe the top Brass is unwilling to create a Tonkin for him?

[DarkandStormy]

Trump's first decade in office has been exhausting.

Oh, it's only been one year?

Shit.

[jim555]

Trump's first decade in office has been exhausting.

Oh, it's only been one year?

Shit.

Instead of the President noticeably aging in office, now the people are aging while the President stays the same.

[scottnews]

I don't think Kushner is likely to be his sticking point (no sign of him bailing Kushner out of his financial problems with 666 5th Avenue, for instance).  Donald Jr and Ivanka might be but even then I can't see him going the Flynn route and pleading guilty himself in order to spare them.

Yeah, I think you're right. Kushner will go under the bus if needed.


Re: Trump and Iran

Nothing like a war to improve ratings and he's all about ratings. He needs an international incident, though, and he's hoping he can provoke one. Maybe the top Brass is unwilling to create a Tonkin for him?

I suppose Kushner would expect a pardon.

Wag the Dog is real with this POTUS.    Nothing rallies the country like a war.   Iran, Korea, whatever.   

[sequoia]

Apparently The Donald has decided to foment tensions overseas again (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42519054).  Does he think his 70 years qualify him to weigh in on centuries old conflicts?  And why is he always on the most divisive side (especially since the citizens of the US have nothing to gain from him tweeting this):

Many reports of peaceful protests by Iranian citizens fed up with regime’s corruption & its squandering of the nation’s wealth to fund terrorism abroad. Iranian govt should respect their people’s rights, including right to express themselves. The world is watching! #IranProtests)

On one hand, it's impressive what an individual (representing the US) can do in 5 minutes of uninformed social media posting, but on the other hand it is quite depressing what millions are allowing him to do and that anyone takes this seriously.  At this point, I just have to believe that the world comes through this test stronger than when we began.

It's amazing he has the balls to talk about "right of expression" but was calling NFL players "Son of bitches" for doing the same.

Hah I was thinking the same as well.

Here is the president of the US calling US citizen SOB while supporting the same thing what Iranian citizen do. Maybe he should become Iran's president - this will get my vote!

[Just Joe]

I'll even kick in on the straitjacket and plane ticket to Tehran... ;)

[Glenstache]

Well holy shit. It actually made it to a literal "mine is bigger than yours" tweet in the Trump v Kim nuclear fiasco/nightmare.

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/367149-trump-i-have-a-much-bigger-button-than-kim-jong-un

[GuitarStv]

The power of the Trump presidency is in taking generally reasonable people and pushing them to the point where they kinda hope that North Korea nukes the US just to shut the current president up.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

Trump is in the uncanny valley of not being nuts enough to benefit the US through madman strategy but is nuts enough to annoy nearly everyone.

[DarkandStormy]

This Trump at his most calm - he's had ten days off, seven straight golfing.

He's a petulant child.

Trump’s schedule for tomorrow is the same as it was for today: daily intel brief at 11, then lunch with Pence and other officials. Other than the new year’s party, he hasn’t had any event or meeting on his schedule since he tweeted “tomorrow it’s back to work” eight days ago.

Oh dear lord.

[acroy]

Like the McD's commercial:  I'm Loving It!!