Author Topic: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...  (Read 809516 times)

accolay

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7050 on: May 02, 2019, 08:12:35 PM »
Quote
"Nobody has ever done what I've done. I've given total transparency," Trump said. "They shouldn't be looking anymore. This is all-it's done."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-indicates-he-will-block-mcgahn-testimony/ar-AAAOFln?ocid=mailsignout

That quote made me laugh out loud.

LennStar

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7051 on: May 03, 2019, 01:39:32 AM »
Regarding the "Can a president pardon himself" I think that is just the lawyer's version of medieval thologist's "Can almighty God make a stone He cannot lift?"

talltexan

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7052 on: May 03, 2019, 01:23:17 PM »
Back on topic:
The Trump Administration pushed to strip language on climate change from the Arctic Policy statement to be given next week by Pompeo, putting the US at odds with the other 7 arctic nations.

It will be curious to see if there is any acknowledgment of climate change next week, as it's certain he will be directly asked.

Our own federal science agencies, the US military and the US Corp of Engineers all view climate change as ongoing and a threat to our country. 
article

Strange coincidence that Arctic policy is a focus and suddenly there's a phone call with Putin...https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/03/politics/trump-putin-phone-call-mueller-report/index.html

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7053 on: May 03, 2019, 02:02:20 PM »

Strange coincidence that Arctic policy is a focus and suddenly there's a phone call with Putin...https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/03/politics/trump-putin-phone-call-mueller-report/index.html

As someone who's done a lot of research in the arctic, I've been to a lot of arctic conferences.  One of the refrains you hear a lot is that the United States is the only arctic nation which has to be reminded that it is an arctic nation.

We are woefully behind in this regard, and we seem to be falling further behind. There's a huge amount at stake here, and not just with arctic species/ecosystem.  Commerce and resource extaction are two key issues, as is the infrastructure and communities which are already being threatened by rapid change.  It's military, it's commerce, it's societal and it's environmental.  Canada and Russia are running laps around us right now.  We don't even have an appropriate number of ice-breakers (our fleet is aging and shrinking - the Polar Star is already a decade past its service life, and the Healy is already two decades old).

RetiredAt63

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7054 on: May 03, 2019, 02:38:34 PM »

Strange coincidence that Arctic policy is a focus and suddenly there's a phone call with Putin...https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/03/politics/trump-putin-phone-call-mueller-report/index.html

As someone who's done a lot of research in the arctic, I've been to a lot of arctic conferences.  One of the refrains you hear a lot is that the United States is the only arctic nation which has to be reminded that it is an arctic nation.

We are woefully behind in this regard, and we seem to be falling further behind. There's a huge amount at stake here, and not just with arctic species/ecosystem.  Commerce and resource extaction are two key issues, as is the infrastructure and communities which are already being threatened by rapid change.  It's military, it's commerce, it's societal and it's environmental.  Canada and Russia are running laps around us right now.  We don't even have an appropriate number of ice-breakers (our fleet is aging and shrinking - the Polar Star is already a decade past its service life, and the Healy is already two decades old).

This may make you sad but it makes me happy.  It's good to hear we are actually doing things.  The last IAGLR conference I went to was while Harper was PM - the US and Ontario were doing lots of research, the Feds almost nothing.  So disappointing and embarrassing.

Hey, if the US doesn't want to be an arctic country, you can always give us Alaska. Look how landlocked so much of BC is, because of the southern Alaskan coastline.

Poundwise

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7055 on: May 03, 2019, 03:31:52 PM »
Quote
...in more than 50 legal opinions over some 150 years justice department lawyers have interpreted the clause in a way that barred any foreign payments or gifts except for ones Congress approved. But filings by the department since June 2017 reveal a new interpretation that “… would permit the president – and all federal officials – to accept unlimited amounts of money from foreign governments, as long as the money comes through commercial transactions with an entity owned by the federal official,”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/apr/09/dojs-new-stance-on-foreign-payments-or-gifts-to-trump-blurs-lines-experts

This is absolutely unacceptable!

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7056 on: May 03, 2019, 03:37:59 PM »
Quote
...in more than 50 legal opinions over some 150 years justice department lawyers have interpreted the clause in a way that barred any foreign payments or gifts except for ones Congress approved. But filings by the department since June 2017 reveal a new interpretation that “… would permit the president – and all federal officials – to accept unlimited amounts of money from foreign governments, as long as the money comes through commercial transactions with an entity owned by the federal official,”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/apr/09/dojs-new-stance-on-foreign-payments-or-gifts-to-trump-blurs-lines-experts

This is absolutely unacceptable!


So basically the new DOJ has decided to decriminalized bribery of US officials by foreign governments?  That's a pretty sweet deal.  Maybe I should go back to being a fed.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7057 on: May 03, 2019, 05:12:53 PM »

Strange coincidence that Arctic policy is a focus and suddenly there's a phone call with Putin...https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/03/politics/trump-putin-phone-call-mueller-report/index.html

As someone who's done a lot of research in the arctic, I've been to a lot of arctic conferences.  One of the refrains you hear a lot is that the United States is the only arctic nation which has to be reminded that it is an arctic nation.

We are woefully behind in this regard, and we seem to be falling further behind. There's a huge amount at stake here, and not just with arctic species/ecosystem.  Commerce and resource extaction are two key issues, as is the infrastructure and communities which are already being threatened by rapid change.  It's military, it's commerce, it's societal and it's environmental.  Canada and Russia are running laps around us right now.  We don't even have an appropriate number of ice-breakers (our fleet is aging and shrinking - the Polar Star is already a decade past its service life, and the Healy is already two decades old).

This may make you sad but it makes me happy.  It's good to hear we are actually doing things.  The last IAGLR conference I went to was while Harper was PM - the US and Ontario were doing lots of research, the Feds almost nothing.  So disappointing and embarrassing.

Hey, if the US doesn't want to be an arctic country, you can always give us Alaska. Look how landlocked so much of BC is, because of the southern Alaskan coastline.

Yeah, I get the nationalistic pride that comes with beating the pants off your neighbor, but I'd submit that we all lose by the US basically ignoring (and often denying) the underlying problem.

Sorry, after a rather rocky beginning we've grown rather fond of Alaska.  But maybe we'd consider a trade of the San Juan islands for Nova Scotia?

ysette9

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7058 on: May 03, 2019, 05:14:02 PM »
Quote
...in more than 50 legal opinions over some 150 years justice department lawyers have interpreted the clause in a way that barred any foreign payments or gifts except for ones Congress approved. But filings by the department since June 2017 reveal a new interpretation that “… would permit the president – and all federal officials – to accept unlimited amounts of money from foreign governments, as long as the money comes through commercial transactions with an entity owned by the federal official,”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/apr/09/dojs-new-stance-on-foreign-payments-or-gifts-to-trump-blurs-lines-experts

This is absolutely unacceptable!


So basically the new DOJ has decided to decriminalized bribery of US officials by foreign governments?  That's a pretty sweet deal.  Maybe I should go back to being a fed.
Oh come now. You know well enough that the rules on things like bribery only apply to the little people. Just like the peons get charged and jailed for spilling classified info but if politicians do the same, well, life goes on.

RetiredAt63

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7059 on: May 03, 2019, 05:31:35 PM »

Strange coincidence that Arctic policy is a focus and suddenly there's a phone call with Putin...https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/03/politics/trump-putin-phone-call-mueller-report/index.html

As someone who's done a lot of research in the arctic, I've been to a lot of arctic conferences.  One of the refrains you hear a lot is that the United States is the only arctic nation which has to be reminded that it is an arctic nation.

We are woefully behind in this regard, and we seem to be falling further behind. There's a huge amount at stake here, and not just with arctic species/ecosystem.  Commerce and resource extaction are two key issues, as is the infrastructure and communities which are already being threatened by rapid change.  It's military, it's commerce, it's societal and it's environmental.  Canada and Russia are running laps around us right now.  We don't even have an appropriate number of ice-breakers (our fleet is aging and shrinking - the Polar Star is already a decade past its service life, and the Healy is already two decades old).

This may make you sad but it makes me happy.  It's good to hear we are actually doing things.  The last IAGLR conference I went to was while Harper was PM - the US and Ontario were doing lots of research, the Feds almost nothing.  So disappointing and embarrassing.

Hey, if the US doesn't want to be an arctic country, you can always give us Alaska. Look how landlocked so much of BC is, because of the southern Alaskan coastline.

Yeah, I get the nationalistic pride that comes with beating the pants off your neighbor, but I'd submit that we all lose by the US basically ignoring (and often denying) the underlying problem.

Sorry, after a rather rocky beginning we've grown rather fond of Alaska.  But maybe we'd consider a trade of the San Juan islands for Nova Scotia?

It's not that we are beating the pants off our neighbour, it's relief that we are actually doing something.  See bolded part above.

Why would we trade Nova Scotia for the Sam Juan Islands?  Nova Scotia is one of the 4 founding provinces.  My grandfather would roll over in his grave if his home province left Confederation.  I can see geographically that they would fit nicely with the other islands off Vancouver Island, but they are still close to Washington State.

John Galt incarnate!

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7060 on: May 03, 2019, 05:44:40 PM »
Quote
...in more than 50 legal opinions over some 150 years justice department lawyers have interpreted the clause in a way that barred any foreign payments or gifts except for ones Congress approved. But filings by the department since June 2017 reveal a new interpretation that “… would permit the president – and all federal officials – to accept unlimited amounts of money from foreign governments, as long as the money comes through commercial transactions with an entity owned by the federal official,”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/apr/09/dojs-new-stance-on-foreign-payments-or-gifts-to-trump-blurs-lines-experts

This is absolutely unacceptable!

Suppose a televised conference between Trump and Putin.

The conference is in Moscow.

As the conference ends  Trump and Putin shake hands after which Putin puts a hand in his pocket to get a valuable gold watch that he hands to Trump. As he hands the watch to Trump Putin says: "I am pleased that you attended the conference. Here is a present for you."

Most of  Congress sees Trump's acceptance of the watch  or reads about it in newspapers or online news sources.

Congress neither says nor does anything  about Trump's acceptance of the watch.

Below is the Title of Nobility Clause.

No Title of Nobility shall be granted by the United States: And no Person holding any Office of Profit or Trust under them, shall, without the Consent of the Congress, accept of any present, Emolument, Office, or Title, of any kind whatever, from any King, Prince, or foreign State.

Is Congress' cognizance of Trump's acceptance of the present from Putin and inaction  about it tantamount to Congress  consenting  to Trump's acceptance of the present from Putin?

In the information age of the 21st century I'm curious as to what constitutes Congress' "Consent" to a president's acceptance of "any present, Emolument, Office, or Title, of any kind whatever, from any King, Prince, or foreign State."


« Last Edit: May 03, 2019, 06:01:04 PM by John Galt incarnate! »

LennStar

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7061 on: May 05, 2019, 10:16:46 AM »
In a Trump presidency, this is likely to go on:
https://boingboing.net/2019/05/05/all-on-medicare.html



* "Watching my best friend’s father go from serene acceptance of his lymphoma diagnosis to shame and despair on his deathbed two years later that his treatment had permanently impoverished his wife and son. When my father received his own diagnosis, he refused all treatment instead." (@sisyphusmyths)

* "My father killed himself so he wouldn’t bankrupt the family trying to treat his Parkinson’s. He was my best friend. We did a Go Fund Me for his medical care and ended up using it for his funeral" (@ErinDeweyLennox)

* "When my mother waited too long to go to the doctor when she found a breast lump. Being poor cost her life. If other advanced countries can do it, so can we. I'm sick of greedy fucking billionaires who've robbed America of a heart and soul." (@CelloLvr)

* "My mother had a prolapsed uterus. She took to shoving it back in because her insurance wouldn’t cover any of the treatments locally, and she would have had to go to a hospital a hundred miles away to be treated. The idea of just shoving your organs back inside your body..." (@UrsulaV)

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7062 on: May 05, 2019, 11:06:46 AM »
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/05/04/alzheimers-disease-rates-rising-baby-boomers/1106292001/

Quote
About 5.8 million Americans now have the disease, according to the Alzheimer's Association. That number will climb to at least 13.8 million by 2050, a 138% rise, and as many as 1 in 3 people who live to be 85 in the United States will die with Alzheimer's disease.
- snip-
The average person with Alzheimer's disease will live four to eight years after diagnosis, said Lepard, and about 40% of that time, the person will be in the most severe form of the disease, which requires around-the-clock care.

"So, if you take a person who lives eight years after diagnosis, for three of those years, that person will be in the most severe aspects of the disease and will need 24-hour care and have lost most of their ability to keep up with the activities required in daily living," Lepard said.

The intensity of care that people need when the disease has progressed that far is often beyond what their loved ones can handle, she said. Plus, families quickly see how expensive long-term care can be. The average cost to Medicare for a single person with dementia in 2018 was $27,244, according to the Alzheimer's Association.

Caring for people with Alzheimer’s disease and other forms of dementia will cost $290 billion this year alone. But by 2050, that cost is expected to rise to $1.1 trillion annually. It's the most expensive disease in America – with care costing more than cancer and heart disease, the Alzheimer's Association reports.

"We really see this bankrupting Medicare at some point," Lepard said. "When we talk to members of Congress about the situation and why we need to invest in more research, it's because people cannot afford long-term care.

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7063 on: May 05, 2019, 01:18:17 PM »
In a Trump presidency, this is likely to go on:
https://boingboing.net/2019/05/05/all-on-medicare.html



* "Watching my best friend’s father go from serene acceptance of his lymphoma diagnosis to shame and despair on his deathbed two years later that his treatment had permanently impoverished his wife and son. When my father received his own diagnosis, he refused all treatment instead." (@sisyphusmyths)

* "My father killed himself so he wouldn’t bankrupt the family trying to treat his Parkinson’s. He was my best friend. We did a Go Fund Me for his medical care and ended up using it for his funeral" (@ErinDeweyLennox)

* "When my mother waited too long to go to the doctor when she found a breast lump. Being poor cost her life. If other advanced countries can do it, so can we. I'm sick of greedy fucking billionaires who've robbed America of a heart and soul." (@CelloLvr)

* "My mother had a prolapsed uterus. She took to shoving it back in because her insurance wouldn’t cover any of the treatments locally, and she would have had to go to a hospital a hundred miles away to be treated. The idea of just shoving your organs back inside your body..." (@UrsulaV)

Instead of "cheap healthcare for all" we've got "Kentucky Derby was a farce," relatively speaking. Priorities ) :

talltexan

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7064 on: May 06, 2019, 10:07:35 AM »
so I assume the idea that Trump gets an extra two years "reparation" to make up for his two years lost to the collusion investigations are not popular around here?

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7065 on: May 06, 2019, 10:10:24 AM »
so I assume the idea that Trump gets an extra two years "reparation" to make up for his two years lost to the collusion investigations are not popular around here?

How would that work, exactly?  Are you seriously suggesting he just blatantly subvert our Constitution?  I can't imagine anyone, liberal or conservative, would be thrilled with that idea.

former player

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7066 on: May 06, 2019, 10:29:57 AM »
so I assume the idea that Trump gets an extra two years "reparation" to make up for his two years lost to the collusion investigations are not popular around here?

How would that work, exactly?  Are you seriously suggesting he just blatantly subvert our Constitution?  I can't imagine anyone, liberal or conservative, would be thrilled with that idea.
Sadly, I can imagine it.  Because a significant part of the USA population has had Trump propaganda spoon fed to it for the last two and a half years and will follow anything he says.  And 80% of the Republican Party (100% of its members in Congress) has been bullied into going along with whatever he wants.

Lews Therin

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7067 on: May 06, 2019, 11:31:24 AM »
so I assume the idea that Trump gets an extra two years "reparation" to make up for his two years lost to the collusion investigations are not popular around here?

Why would he?  Nothing was stopped due to the investigations, he continued being president, as shown by his tweets that decided policy!

The investigation has and had no effect on his daily activities, he continued doing the job the same way he would have had it not existed. It's not like he was sitting in jail waiting for sentencing, or anything else, he simply had to keep hearing about it.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7068 on: May 06, 2019, 12:16:15 PM »
Holy crap!  https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/06/politics/justice-department-trump-mueller-protect-democracy/index.html

Quote
Hundreds of former Justice Department officials said in an open letter released Monday that President Donald Trump would be facing multiple felony charges stemming from the Russia investigation if he were not President.

The letter posted online by Justice Department alumni, who served under presidents from both parties, said the report from special counsel Robert Mueller contained repeated instances of Trump committing obstruction of justice, and that he would have been charged with obstruction if he was not protected as President by an opinion from the Justice Department's Office of Legal Counsel that Mueller cited.
"We believe strongly that, but for the OLC memo, the overwhelming weight of professional judgment would come down in favor of prosecution for the conduct outlined in the Mueller Report," the letter read.

Something tells me Trump is not going to leave the Oval Office willingly...

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7069 on: May 06, 2019, 02:29:43 PM »

Something tells me Trump is not going to leave the Oval Office willingly...

I don't think what he wants (his 'willingness') will factor much into it.  Should he lose in 2020 it will almost certainly be both by popular vote and the EC (given the current map). Such a loss would likely coincide with a Dem controlled house if history is any guide.  For all the fear-mongering of DJT declaring himself leader, IME our institutions are stronger than that.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7070 on: May 06, 2019, 02:48:44 PM »

Something tells me Trump is not going to leave the Oval Office willingly...

I don't think what he wants (his 'willingness') will factor much into it.  Should he lose in 2020 it will almost certainly be both by popular vote and the EC (given the current map). Such a loss would likely coincide with a Dem controlled house if history is any guide.  For all the fear-mongering of DJT declaring himself leader, IME our institutions are stronger than that.
Pelosi's pragmatic political stance on that:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/04/us/politics/nancy-pelosi.html

Not so clear that it wouldn't involve a fight. Remember 2000? I sure do.

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7071 on: May 06, 2019, 02:58:15 PM »
Trump's new narrative is that the presidency is being "stolen" (well, actually, he wrote "stollen") from him.

He is riling up his base for a reason. I firmly believe they will rise up in armed insurrection if he loses in 2020, or in the unlikely event that he is removed from office in some other way.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7072 on: May 06, 2019, 06:00:28 PM »

Not so clear that it wouldn't involve a fight. Remember 2000? I sure do.

As I said, I'm sure he won't want to go, but that's diffferent from installing himself as dictator-for-life.  I remember 2000 - as I recall Bill Clinton did not try to retain the Presidency, and while there was a legally contested fight that wound up in front of SCOTUS over a fraction of votes there was not an armed insurrection, and despite some bumps there was a peaceful transition of power.

One way or the other I don't think the race will be anywhere near that close.


He is riling up his base for a reason. I firmly believe they will rise up in armed insurrection if he loses in 2020, or in the unlikely event that he is removed from office in some other way.
You have less faith in the strength of our democracy than I do.  Should he lose (and that's not a given) I'm certain many in his base will refute it in some way, but an armed uprising beyond a few dozen extremists seems unlikely to me.  There are many who believe Gore had the election stolen from him, yet even then the transfer was peaceful.  As I said before, should DJT lose in 2020 the most likely scenario is that he lost both the popular vote and in the electoral college. Ostensibly that would put the support of the majority and the clear constitutionality behind someone else.

Dictators need the support of the military to stay in power against the will of the majority of the people.  I don't see that scenario either - most of the upper brass seems sick of him (remember how his relationship with McMaster, Kelly, Mattis, Flynn, McRaven, McCrystal and others have turned).  They follow his commands because it's their sworn duty, and they take the CoC very seriously.  In the wake of a loss that will be gone.

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7073 on: May 06, 2019, 06:08:30 PM »

Not so clear that it wouldn't involve a fight. Remember 2000? I sure do.

As I said, I'm sure he won't want to go, but that's diffferent from installing himself as dictator-for-life.  I remember 2000 - as I recall Bill Clinton did not try to retain the Presidency, and while there was a legally contested fight that wound up in front of SCOTUS over a fraction of votes there was not an armed insurrection, and despite some bumps there was a peaceful transition of power.

One way or the other I don't think the race will be anywhere near that close.


He is riling up his base for a reason. I firmly believe they will rise up in armed insurrection if he loses in 2020, or in the unlikely event that he is removed from office in some other way.
You have less faith in the strength of our democracy than I do.  Should he lose (and that's not a given) I'm certain many in his base will refute it in some way, but an armed uprising beyond a few dozen extremists seems unlikely to me.  There are many who believe Gore had the election stolen from him, yet even then the transfer was peaceful.  As I said before, should DJT lose in 2020 the most likely scenario is that he lost both the popular vote and in the electoral college. Ostensibly that would put the support of the majority and the clear constitutionality behind someone else.

Dictators need the support of the military to stay in power against the will of the majority of the people.  I don't see that scenario either - most of the upper brass seems sick of him (remember how his relationship with McMaster, Kelly, Mattis, Flynn, McRaven, McCrystal and others have turned).  They follow his commands because it's their sworn duty, and they take the CoC very seriously.  In the wake of a loss that will be gone.

I am not saying they will overthrow the government.

I am saying, however, that there will be hundreds, or perhaps thousands, of crazed Trump lunatics out on the streets with guns.

And they will shoot people. And kill at least some.

And this is where we are. And many people will downplay it because it does not go so far as to actually overthrow a government.


Glenstache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7074 on: May 06, 2019, 06:24:20 PM »
Meanwhile, in obstruction of justice news: Barr has refused to show up for more hearings and Mnuchin has denied congress access to Trump's tax returns. Contempt hearings for Barr are scheduled for Wednesday. Think he'll get a pardon?

Barr:
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/06/democrats-prepare-to-hold-william-barr-in-contempt-1302982

Mnuchin:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/06/us/politics/trump-tax-returns-mnuchin.html

LennStar

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7075 on: May 07, 2019, 12:38:18 AM »
so I assume the idea that Trump gets an extra two years "reparation" to make up for his two years lost to the collusion investigations are not popular around here?

I must have missed his incarceration.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7076 on: May 07, 2019, 07:21:16 AM »
Trump's new narrative is that the presidency is being "stolen" (well, actually, he wrote "stollen") from him.

He is riling up his base for a reason. I firmly believe they will rise up in armed insurrection if he loses in 2020, or in the unlikely event that he is removed from office in some other way.

Oh no.  An invasion of white hicks and elderly folks with stockpiles of small arms all wearing bright red MAGA caps.  How will the country ever survive it.

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7077 on: May 07, 2019, 07:49:54 AM »
Trump's new narrative is that the presidency is being "stolen" (well, actually, he wrote "stollen") from him.

He is riling up his base for a reason. I firmly believe they will rise up in armed insurrection if he loses in 2020, or in the unlikely event that he is removed from office in some other way.

Oh no.  An invasion of white hicks and elderly folks with stockpiles of small arms all wearing bright red MAGA caps.  How will the country ever survive it.

Right. But a bunch of dumb, angry, racist gullible people with guns who have been convinced by their dumb, angry, racist leader that they have to go out and shoot up people to protect Merica is gonna result in some people getting hurt, perhaps killed.

One of them will probably be this guy I went to high school with. He's a gun-totin' islamophobe who thoroughly believes everything Emperor Trump says. He is in a constant froth, and posts a ton of crap advocating violence against people who aren't white conservatives. And yeah, he's not great with critical thinking skills. As an illustration, he posted this yesterday on Facebook, not understanding that this meme is actually mocking ignorant rednecks like him.
« Last Edit: May 07, 2019, 08:48:08 AM by Kris »

partgypsy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7078 on: May 07, 2019, 07:52:28 AM »
Trump's new narrative is that the presidency is being "stolen" (well, actually, he wrote "stollen") from him.

He is riling up his base for a reason. I firmly believe they will rise up in armed insurrection if he loses in 2020, or in the unlikely event that he is removed from office in some other way.

Oh no.  An invasion of white hicks and elderly folks with stockpiles of small arms all wearing bright red MAGA caps.  How will the country ever survive it.

Right. But a bunch of dumb, angry, racist gullible people with guns who have been convinced by their dumb, angry, racist leader that they have to go out and shoot up people to protect Merica is gonna result in some people getting hurt, perhaps killed.

One of them will probably be this guy I went to high school with. He's a gun-totin' islamophobe who thoroughly believes everything Emperor Trump says. He is in a constant froth, and posts a ton of crap advocating violence against people who aren't white conservatives. And yeah, he's not great critical thinking skills. As an illustration, he posted this yesterday on Facebook, not understanding that this meme is actually mocking ignorant rednecks like him.

LOL! I almost want to share that on Facebook, but don't want to confuse my friends in case they don't realize I'm reposting with irony.

Gondolin

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7079 on: May 07, 2019, 08:11:34 AM »
Quote
And they will shoot people. And kill at least some.

Isn’t this just a regular Tuesday in America though?

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7080 on: May 07, 2019, 08:22:15 AM »
Quote
And they will shoot people. And kill at least some.

Isn’t this just a regular Tuesday in America though?

LOL (lol'ing bitterly here). Think a regular Tuesday, plus these asswipes who up to now have just been sitting on their asses watching Fox, cleaning their guns and posting racist shit on social media, who now have a clear signal from their leader that it's time to get up, wipe the Cheetos dust off their fingers, and go a-huntin'.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7081 on: May 07, 2019, 08:58:36 AM »
There will be a few nuts with guns for sure, but most of the trumpsters I know aren't willing to go to jail or get killed over him. I have to believe his base isn't that mentally ill. If so, we should start fleeing the country now.

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7082 on: May 07, 2019, 09:04:07 AM »
There will be a few nuts with guns for sure, but most of the trumpsters I know aren't willing to go to jail or get killed over him. I have to believe his base isn't that mentally ill. If so, we should start fleeing the country now.

Like I said, I think there will be a wave of a few hundred, or perhaps as much as a couple thousand, in the country.

That's enough to get a bunch of people hurt or killed, though.

talltexan

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7083 on: May 07, 2019, 09:41:22 AM »
Sincere question:

If Trump wins re-election in 2020, why don't you expect that Bernie supporters would riot like we're describing?

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7084 on: May 07, 2019, 09:44:31 AM »
Sincere question:

If Trump wins re-election in 2020, why don't you expect that Bernie supporters would riot like we're describing?

Because Bernie doesn't have a long and documented habit of endorsing/condoning/suggesting violence on the campaign trail and in his tweets?

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7085 on: May 07, 2019, 09:52:50 AM »
Sincere question:

If Trump wins re-election in 2020, why don't you expect that Bernie supporters would riot like we're describing?

Because Bernie doesn't have a long and documented habit of endorsing/condoning/suggesting violence on the campaign trail and in his tweets?

and he hasn't spent the last 3 years crying voter fraud, and Bernie supporters are less likely to own guns, and all the conspiracy theories Trump has supported, and Breitbart, Infowars, etc., and...wait. Is Bernie going to be the Democratic candidate?

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7086 on: May 07, 2019, 10:00:39 AM »
Sincere question:

If Trump wins re-election in 2020, why don't you expect that Bernie supporters would riot like we're describing?
I'm skeptical that any candidate's supporters would riot en masse. Gore had some hard-core environmental supporters and they didn't resort to violence even though they felt they had been 'robbed' of the presidency.
Trump may have a lot of gun-toting, isolationist types in his camp, but with a handful of disturbing exceptions they've refrained from rioting and killing, despite what many will characterize as active encouragement from Trump to be violent towards detractors and even when they feel he's being unfairly blocked/investigated (i.e. the "deep state") .

bottom line: I think the majority of people are either against killing and/or too afraid of punishment to actually carry out real violence.  Ultimately even the most blustery amongst us don't put their online threats into criminal actions. Of course there are a handful of whackos that shoot up pizza parlors and mail bombs and assassinate children - but they're fringe extremists. 

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7087 on: May 07, 2019, 10:25:15 AM »
Of course there are a handful of whackos that shoot up pizza parlors and mail bombs and assassinate children - but they're fringe extremists.

Why are all of the fringe extremists wearing MAGA hats, holding Trump signs, and only attacking the people Trump told them to attack?





https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/donald-trump-incitement-violence/

I know a handful of reasonably intelligent and mostly non-crazy people who supported Donald Trump for President, but this is a serious problem that Trump supporters need to address.  Their political alliance was largely built on unifying economically disadvantaged middle-America white men against a perceived "other", and some of those folks have escalated from xenophobia to murder.  Honestly, what does that say about the coalition?  I would expect democrats would be forced into a reckoning of sorts if liberal politics washed over the country in a blue wave and some hardcore progressive activists started murdering oil company CEOs or wall street bankers, but so far the political right has written off all of these acts of political violence as "extremists" without recognizing their own role in supporting these crimes.  They've tried to distance themselves from the consequences of their own campaign rhetoric, and I think it's only allowing this particular cancer to grow.

The republican party needs to identify and root out this kind of behavior.  Every magabomber needs to be openly condemned by every member of the party.  Every racist hate crime needs to be identified as such, and shouted down by other conservatives.  And then those same conservatives need to figure out what it is in their own party that keeps generating these sorts of crimes, because just saying "oh he's just a crazy person" every single time is starting to get real old.  This is a thing, not a random coincidence but a pattern created by Trump's particular brand of hateful politics, and they need to put a stop to it.
« Last Edit: May 07, 2019, 10:47:10 AM by sol »

Dabnasty

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7088 on: May 07, 2019, 10:25:40 AM »
Sincere question:

If Trump wins re-election in 2020, why don't you expect that Bernie supporters would riot like we're describing?
I'm skeptical that any candidate's supporters would riot en masse. Gore had some hard-core environmental supporters and they didn't resort to violence even though they felt they had been 'robbed' of the presidency.
Trump may have a lot of gun-toting, isolationist types in his camp, but with a handful of disturbing exceptions they've refrained from rioting and killing, despite what many will characterize as active encouragement from Trump to be violent towards detractors and even when they feel he's being unfairly blocked/investigated (i.e. the "deep state") .

bottom line: I think the majority of people are either against killing and/or too afraid of punishment to actually carry out real violence.  Ultimately even the most blustery amongst us don't put their online threats into criminal actions. Of course there are a handful of whackos that shoot up pizza parlors and mail bombs and assassinate children - but they're fringe extremists.

I think you're probably right that violent attacks of any significant volume are unlikely, but I do worry that the chance of violent action is greater this time around than it has been in recent history. The pizza gate shooter and the mail bomber are exactly the type of people I worry about. I suspect there are lot's of people like them out there who could potentially carry out an attack but never do because they need a catalyst to take that step. A Trump loss may be that catalyst, particularly if any sizeable group of these truly crazy people get into communication with one another. If that happens they may even start to influence some of the slightly less crazy supporters. Mob mentality makes outrageous ideas seem a little less outrageous.

If you want to see examples of how angry and violent conspiracy theorists can get, you could look into the harassment of the parents of Sandy Hook victims. Hell, just pick any of Alex Jones's most popular theories and you can find examples of his follower's getting involved with the people he criticizes on his show. I wouldn't recommend it, I'm just saying you could.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7089 on: May 07, 2019, 11:15:01 AM »
oh, I absolutely agree with @sol & @Dabnasty here - violent extremists in the MAGA camp need to be called out and condemned, especially by those within the party - and by-and-large those condemnations have been absent or woefully insufficient.  I'm just opining that there won't be any armed insurrection as a few predict.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7090 on: May 07, 2019, 11:21:32 AM »
The chanting crowds at Trump rallies scare me - there is visceral disrespect in them for almost any politician that isn't Trump, for the press and for the rule of law.  I suppose the hope is that they are more like a pop concert than a political movement - people will just go home from them and get on with their normal lives.  But in self-selected crowds of several thousand it would not be surprising if a number of those present decided to take matters further if pressed - and Trump is very good at pressing buttons.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7091 on: May 07, 2019, 11:32:09 AM »
The chanting crowds at Trump rallies scare me - there is visceral disrespect in them for almost any politician that isn't Trump, for the press and for the rule of law. I suppose the hope is that they are more like a pop concert than a political movement - people will just go home from them and get on with their normal lives.  But in self-selected crowds of several thousand it would not be surprising if a number of those present decided to take matters further if pressed - and Trump is very good at pressing buttons.

I wouldn't want to be anywhere near a Trump rally given my occupation, but I tend to think the bolded portion has a good deal of truth to it.  In my younger days I went to more than one concert where people chanted "f- the police" and "all hail satan" and a number of other stupid, anarchist slogans. I don't think any actually got violent besides some drunk idiots in the parking-lot who quickly got locked up.

In some ways we've already seen how this plays out - and its not as bad as many fear.  DJT actively encourages people to turn to the press corp and boo them while calling them unpatriotic and liars and fake and the enemy and a whole host of other nasty things, yet even in the thick of his most vitriolic rallies, surrounded by his most enthusiastic supporters they haven't actually become a violent mob attacking all press members in sight.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7092 on: May 07, 2019, 11:36:35 AM »
The chanting crowds at Trump rallies scare me - there is visceral disrespect in them for almost any politician that isn't Trump, for the press and for the rule of law. I suppose the hope is that they are more like a pop concert than a political movement - people will just go home from them and get on with their normal lives.  But in self-selected crowds of several thousand it would not be surprising if a number of those present decided to take matters further if pressed - and Trump is very good at pressing buttons.

I wouldn't want to be anywhere near a Trump rally given my occupation, but I tend to think the bolded portion has a good deal of truth to it.  In my younger days I went to more than one concert where people chanted "f- the police" and "all hail satan" and a number of other stupid, anarchist slogans. I don't think any actually got violent besides some drunk idiots in the parking-lot who quickly got locked up.

In some ways we've already seen how this plays out - and its not as bad as many fear.  DJT actively encourages people to turn to the press corp and boo them while calling them unpatriotic and liars and fake and the enemy and a whole host of other nasty things, yet even in the thick of his most vitriolic rallies, surrounded by his most enthusiastic supporters they haven't actually become a violent mob attacking all press members in sight.

It would appear that studies of the matter suggest otherwise:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/16/us/trump-rally-violence.html



Not really surprising given Trumps history of inciting violence:  https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/donald-trump-incitement-violence/

Gondolin

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7093 on: May 07, 2019, 12:31:54 PM »
Quote
I suspect there are lot's of people like them out there who could potentially carry out an attack but never do because they need a catalyst to take that step.

 I was being glib upthread but definitely agree that there’s likely to be a rash of lone wolves in Nov./Dec. 2020 if Trump loses.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7094 on: May 07, 2019, 05:26:29 PM »
Well, this article is likely to generate some predictable tweets. Shall we get a pool if there is a libel/defamation suit out of it? Though, discovery on that one would also require disclosing the returns to demonstrate that the article is wrong, soooo...
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/05/07/us/politics/donald-trump-taxes.html


Tom Bri

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7095 on: May 07, 2019, 08:19:05 PM »
Quote
I suspect there are lot's of people like them out there who could potentially carry out an attack but never do because they need a catalyst to take that step.

 I was being glib upthread but definitely agree that there’s likely to be a rash of lone wolves in Nov./Dec. 2020 if Trump loses.

Do you expect more 'Antifa' type violence if he wins?
I do.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7096 on: May 07, 2019, 09:01:50 PM »
I was being glib upthread but definitely agree that there’s likely to be a rash of lone wolves in Nov./Dec. 2020 if Trump loses.
He'll win.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7097 on: May 07, 2019, 09:58:38 PM »
Well, this article is likely to generate some predictable tweets. Shall we get a pool if there is a libel/defamation suit out of it? Though, discovery on that one would also require disclosing the returns to demonstrate that the article is wrong, soooo...
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/05/07/us/politics/donald-trump-taxes.html

Meh, this is hitting all the major news outlets now
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/05/07/report-trump-lost-more-than-1-billion-decade/1135982001/
https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/07/politics/trump-tax-returns-losses/index.html

I just think the whole Trump Presidency command of the news cycle is unraveling at this point.  You can only play the Twitter distraction game for so long.  And now that the market has taken a turn for the worse...  Seems to me like the sham is finally getting overwhelmed by reality.

Gondolin

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7098 on: May 07, 2019, 10:44:55 PM »
Quote
Do you expect more 'Antifa' type violence if he wins?
I do.

Eh, maybe. To date Antifa ‘violence’ has been mostly the ‘idiot anarchist teenagers throwing rocks through the windows of a Starbucks’ variety while the MAGA crowd is more into the ‘actively machine gunning places of worship’ paradigm.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #7099 on: May 07, 2019, 10:57:53 PM »
Eh, maybe. To date Antifa ‘violence’ has been mostly the ‘idiot anarchist teenagers throwing rocks through the windows of a Starbucks’ variety while the MAGA crowd is more into the ‘actively machine gunning places of worship’ paradigm.

Being in France these last few months, even the 'best of intentioned' 'yellow vest protests seem to be bolstered by some hard line violent types.  Maybe it is 'violence tourists' that join the crowd just to break windows on the Champs Elysees, maybe it's amazing how easy it is to overturn a car when enough people join in.  Or maybe it's just enough people yelling and no one stopping them.