Author Topic: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...  (Read 1309217 times)

JLee

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3250 on: July 31, 2018, 09:08:39 AM »
I don't think the Koch bros. will back democrats unless those democrats take positions that would resemble business-friendly republican positions. That describes exactly zero democrats I know.

https://amp.thisisinsider.com/trump-attack-globalist-koch-brothers-after-they-turn-on-him-back-democrats-2018-7

Quote
President Donald Trump on Tuesday launched an attack on the Koch brothers - powerful political megadonors with a long history of supporting Republican and libertarian causes - after the billionaires spoke out against the Trump White House.

Charles Koch, who remains in business at Koch Industries after his brother David took a step back in June over health issues, recently distanced himself from Trump's policies and bashed his economics.

"The urge to protect ourselves from change has doomed many countries throughout history," Koch said in a video shown to a gathering of donors in Colorado Springs, Colorado, according to The Wall Street Journal.

"This protectionist mind-set has destroyed countless businesses."

That was not the first time the Koch network had sought to use its political influence to push back against Trump.

The Kochs offered millions in campaign funding to Republicans who voted against a Trump-backed healthcare bill last year, and they spoke out against Trump's "zero tolerance" immigration policy in which families that entered the country illegally were separated at the border.

But recently, Charles Koch opened up to the possibility of funding Democratic candidates in their efforts to take both chambers of Congress in November.

With months to go before a crucial Senate election in North Dakota, the Koch network has not offered any funds to the Republican candidate.

In the clearest sign of an about-face at the libertarian-leaning Koch network, the billionaires funded a study that found that a Medicare-for-all plan by Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont would save the US $2 trillion over a decade. Sanders thanked the Koch network by name.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3251 on: July 31, 2018, 09:19:40 AM »
I don't think the Koch bros. will back democrats unless those democrats take positions that would resemble business-friendly republican positions. That describes exactly zero democrats I know.

There are a number of democrats who support free trade and oppose DJT's tariffs, and are running against GOP candidates who are full-throated Trump supporters.  The Koch bros. care about making money, and lately DJT's policies (based on some perceived slight) have made that much more difficult in many sectors.

former player

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3252 on: July 31, 2018, 10:13:26 AM »
Trrump's policies also seem to be making it more difficult to stay alive, or to catch killers, as his administration has just opened the gates to 3D printing guns.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-45018513

JLee

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3253 on: July 31, 2018, 10:30:41 AM »
Trrump's policies also seem to be making it more difficult to stay alive, or to catch killers, as his administration has just opened the gates to 3D printing guns.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-45018513

Let's be fair -- nobody can stop that.

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3254 on: July 31, 2018, 10:35:33 AM »
Trrump's policies also seem to be making it more difficult to stay alive, or to catch killers, as his administration has just opened the gates to 3D printing guns.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-45018513

Let's be fair -- nobody can stop that.

Yeah.

Well, I mean . . . except the US State Department.  Which has been stopping those plans from being distributed since 2013.  But nobody can stop them any more.

JLee

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3255 on: July 31, 2018, 10:37:57 AM »
Trrump's policies also seem to be making it more difficult to stay alive, or to catch killers, as his administration has just opened the gates to 3D printing guns.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-45018513

Let's be fair -- nobody can stop that.

Yeah.

Well, I mean . . . except the US State Department.  Which has been stopping those plans from being distributed since 2013.  But nobody can stop them any more.

You're exceptionally naive if you think the US State Department can prevent someone from downloading anything if they want to.

Let's go back to 2015: https://3dprint.com/73842/download-3d-printed-gun/
« Last Edit: July 31, 2018, 10:40:06 AM by JLee »

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3256 on: July 31, 2018, 10:41:56 AM »
Trrump's policies also seem to be making it more difficult to stay alive, or to catch killers, as his administration has just opened the gates to 3D printing guns.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-45018513

Let's be fair -- nobody can stop that.

Yeah.

Well, I mean . . . except the US State Department.  Which has been stopping those plans from being distributed since 2013.  But nobody can stop them any more.

You're exceptionally naive if you think the US State Department can prevent someone from downloading anything if they want to.

I mean, technically you're correct.  Nobody can stop anyone from doing anything that they want to.  If I want to drive my car into a bunch of pedestrians tomorrow I can.  That doesn't mean it's a good idea to legitimize automobile rampages, or to facilitate them by putting up signs showing the best place to run pedestrians down.  Since nobody can stop anyone from doing anything, I guess there's no point in having laws?

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3257 on: July 31, 2018, 10:47:08 AM »
Trrump's policies also seem to be making it more difficult to stay alive, or to catch killers, as his administration has just opened the gates to 3D printing guns.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-45018513

Let's be fair -- nobody can stop that.


Yeah.

Well, I mean . . . except the US State Department.  Which has been stopping those plans from being distributed since 2013.  But nobody can stop them any more.

We're firmly in a world where access to firearms is not a significant barrier for anyone, even convicted criminals and the mentally unstable. The so-called '2nd amendment defenders' have successfully lobbied to curtail any national gun registry or universal background checks.  3D printed guns is just the next un-regulated source of firearms, albeit one that's tailor-made to defeat any governmental laws or surveillance.  That genie isn't going back in the bottle.
which means the only productive regulations at our disposal are when, where and how people can carry firearms. Some have decided that "the only way to stop a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a [bigger] gun" - a belief predicated on the idea that armed deterrence will make us all safer.  I don't buy that argument, or the logic behind it.

JLee

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3258 on: July 31, 2018, 10:48:32 AM »
Trrump's policies also seem to be making it more difficult to stay alive, or to catch killers, as his administration has just opened the gates to 3D printing guns.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-45018513

Let's be fair -- nobody can stop that.

Yeah.

Well, I mean . . . except the US State Department.  Which has been stopping those plans from being distributed since 2013.  But nobody can stop them any more.

You're exceptionally naive if you think the US State Department can prevent someone from downloading anything if they want to.

I mean, technically you're correct.  Nobody can stop anyone from doing anything that they want to.  If I want to drive my car into a bunch of pedestrians tomorrow I can.  That doesn't mean it's a good idea to legitimize automobile rampages, or to facilitate them by putting up signs showing the best place to run pedestrians down.  Since nobody can stop anyone from doing anything, I guess there's no point in having laws?

Let's break out the logical fallacies once you're proven to have bad info!

Since you appear to have missed my edit, I'll point you back to 2015: https://3dprint.com/73842/download-3d-printed-gun/

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3259 on: July 31, 2018, 10:57:49 AM »
Trrump's policies also seem to be making it more difficult to stay alive, or to catch killers, as his administration has just opened the gates to 3D printing guns.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-45018513

Let's be fair -- nobody can stop that.

Yeah.

Well, I mean . . . except the US State Department.  Which has been stopping those plans from being distributed since 2013.  But nobody can stop them any more.

You're exceptionally naive if you think the US State Department can prevent someone from downloading anything if they want to.

Let's go back to 2015: https://3dprint.com/73842/download-3d-printed-gun/

Well, I think after "consulting the NRA," which Trump said he's doing today, he'll "stop" this in its tracks.

Because 3D printed guns mean less money for the gun industry. Can't have that.

nereo

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3260 on: July 31, 2018, 11:16:37 AM »
Well, I think after "consulting the NRA," which Trump said he's doing today, he'll "stop" this in its tracks.

Because 3D printed guns mean less money for the gun industry. Can't have that.

It will be interesting to see what argument they put forth - generally prohibitions on certain items are justified as being 'too dangerous'.  Clearly the NRA would not support which labeled all firearms as inherently dangerous. Perhaps they will try for a more narrow definition - that 3D printed guns lack the 'careful manufacturing oversight' which allows for guns to be safe (ha!), but this would be a narrow needle to thread, and one that could invite more scrutiny on existing firearms manufacturers.

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3261 on: July 31, 2018, 11:18:04 AM »
Trrump's policies also seem to be making it more difficult to stay alive, or to catch killers, as his administration has just opened the gates to 3D printing guns.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-45018513

Let's be fair -- nobody can stop that.

Yeah.

Well, I mean . . . except the US State Department.  Which has been stopping those plans from being distributed since 2013.  But nobody can stop them any more.

You're exceptionally naive if you think the US State Department can prevent someone from downloading anything if they want to.

I mean, technically you're correct.  Nobody can stop anyone from doing anything that they want to.  If I want to drive my car into a bunch of pedestrians tomorrow I can.  That doesn't mean it's a good idea to legitimize automobile rampages, or to facilitate them by putting up signs showing the best place to run pedestrians down.  Since nobody can stop anyone from doing anything, I guess there's no point in having laws?

Let's break out the logical fallacies once you're proven to have bad info!

Since you appear to have missed my edit, I'll point you back to 2015: https://3dprint.com/73842/download-3d-printed-gun/

I think you both are essentially correct. I mean the State Dept did in fact force the creator of the first 3-d printed gun to take down his plans. Of course they ended up on a file sharing website after that (gotta both love and hate technology). They seem to have not been downloaded much and there is no evidence they are the exact plans and that the printed gun indeed works. At least no evidence that I can find.

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3262 on: July 31, 2018, 11:19:05 AM »
Because 3D printed guns mean less money for the gun industry. Can't have that.

Let's not forget that the NRA is a firearm manufacturer's lobby.  It's a trade group.  It has tried to spin itself as a defender of citizen liberties, but it was started by rifle manufacturers for the stated purpose of selling more rifles.

At first that was by setting up "safety" training and shooting competitions, to teach people how to use their product and then give them a sporting venue to do so, because sport shooters buy more than hunters or home defenders.  Over the years the NRA has consistently pursued policies that increase gun sales, above all other goals.  If they stay true to their corporate heritage, they will oppose free downloadable guns just like the record industry opposed free downloadable music.

More recently, the NRA has embraced partisan politics.  They only support republican politicians these days, even in cases where a democratic opponent is much more pro-gun, and they have been funding lots of republicans who support various forms of gun control.  Maybe it's because of all the Russian spies using the organization to sow discord in American politics, or maybe it's because they think maintaining republican majorities is better for their business than actually supporting pro-gun politicians.  If it's the former they might come out in support if 3d guns, but if it's the latter I suspect they will oppose it for the reasons stated above.

In that light, maybe the coming NRA declaration on 3d guns is sort of litmus test for how fully controlled by the Russians the NRA has become.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2018, 11:35:53 AM by sol »

JLee

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3263 on: July 31, 2018, 11:19:24 AM »
Trrump's policies also seem to be making it more difficult to stay alive, or to catch killers, as his administration has just opened the gates to 3D printing guns.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-45018513

Let's be fair -- nobody can stop that.

Yeah.

Well, I mean . . . except the US State Department.  Which has been stopping those plans from being distributed since 2013.  But nobody can stop them any more.

You're exceptionally naive if you think the US State Department can prevent someone from downloading anything if they want to.

Let's go back to 2015: https://3dprint.com/73842/download-3d-printed-gun/

Well, I think after "consulting the NRA," which Trump said he's doing today, he'll "stop" this in its tracks.

Because 3D printed guns mean less money for the gun industry. Can't have that.

I don't think it will impact the gun industry at all - 3D printed guns are more of a novelty than anything. It is not as simple as just printing something up entirely out of plastic that is actually going to replace a legitimate firearm.

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3264 on: July 31, 2018, 11:56:50 AM »
Trrump's policies also seem to be making it more difficult to stay alive, or to catch killers, as his administration has just opened the gates to 3D printing guns.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-45018513

Let's be fair -- nobody can stop that.

Yeah.

Well, I mean . . . except the US State Department.  Which has been stopping those plans from being distributed since 2013.  But nobody can stop them any more.

You're exceptionally naive if you think the US State Department can prevent someone from downloading anything if they want to.

Let's go back to 2015: https://3dprint.com/73842/download-3d-printed-gun/

Well, I think after "consulting the NRA," which Trump said he's doing today, he'll "stop" this in its tracks.

Because 3D printed guns mean less money for the gun industry. Can't have that.

I don't think it will impact the gun industry at all - 3D printed guns are more of a novelty than anything. It is not as simple as just printing something up entirely out of plastic that is actually going to replace a legitimate firearm.

Perhaps not in the short term. But I wouldn't say that's true more long-term.

The fact that Trump is even starting to backtrack on this seems to be an indicator that the NRA doesn't want this to go forward. Can't imagine why else it would be a problem, other than the profit motive.

I agree with Sol -- given the infiltration of the NRA by Russia, this will be a pretty interesting thing to watch in the next few days/weeks.

DarkandStormy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3265 on: July 31, 2018, 12:30:33 PM »
Happy Trial Tuesday to Paul Manafort!


anisotropy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3267 on: July 31, 2018, 12:57:39 PM »
The new tax cut for capital gains might not be all it hyped up to be. Adjusting the cost basis for inflation might reduce the final tax bill by no more than 20% at most, most likely only a 10-15% reduction.

This might also serve as a way to "balance the budget" for 2018 and 2019 for cosmetic purposes, ie, it might encourage investors to realize the cap gain, much like how tech comps "brought back the cash".

scottish

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3268 on: July 31, 2018, 03:23:10 PM »
Trrump's policies also seem to be making it more difficult to stay alive, or to catch killers, as his administration has just opened the gates to 3D printing guns.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-45018513

Let's be fair -- nobody can stop that.

Yeah.

Well, I mean . . . except the US State Department.  Which has been stopping those plans from being distributed since 2013.  But nobody can stop them any more.

You're exceptionally naive if you think the US State Department can prevent someone from downloading anything if they want to.

Let's go back to 2015: https://3dprint.com/73842/download-3d-printed-gun/

Well, I think after "consulting the NRA," which Trump said he's doing today, he'll "stop" this in its tracks.

Because 3D printed guns mean less money for the gun industry. Can't have that.

I don't think it will impact the gun industry at all - 3D printed guns are more of a novelty than anything. It is not as simple as just printing something up entirely out of plastic that is actually going to replace a legitimate firearm.

Perhaps not in the short term. But I wouldn't say that's true more long-term.

The fact that Trump is even starting to backtrack on this seems to be an indicator that the NRA doesn't want this to go forward. Can't imagine why else it would be a problem, other than the profit motive.

I agree with Sol -- given the infiltration of the NRA by Russia, this will be a pretty interesting thing to watch in the next few days/weeks.

3d printed guns still blow up regularly when you fire them, don't they?     Of course this will continue to improve, but I think the 3d printing process is going to be inferior to Glock manufacturing for a long time.

Kris

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3269 on: July 31, 2018, 03:26:55 PM »
Trrump's policies also seem to be making it more difficult to stay alive, or to catch killers, as his administration has just opened the gates to 3D printing guns.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-45018513

Let's be fair -- nobody can stop that.

Yeah.

Well, I mean . . . except the US State Department.  Which has been stopping those plans from being distributed since 2013.  But nobody can stop them any more.

You're exceptionally naive if you think the US State Department can prevent someone from downloading anything if they want to.

Let's go back to 2015: https://3dprint.com/73842/download-3d-printed-gun/

Well, I think after "consulting the NRA," which Trump said he's doing today, he'll "stop" this in its tracks.

Because 3D printed guns mean less money for the gun industry. Can't have that.

I don't think it will impact the gun industry at all - 3D printed guns are more of a novelty than anything. It is not as simple as just printing something up entirely out of plastic that is actually going to replace a legitimate firearm.

Perhaps not in the short term. But I wouldn't say that's true more long-term.

The fact that Trump is even starting to backtrack on this seems to be an indicator that the NRA doesn't want this to go forward. Can't imagine why else it would be a problem, other than the profit motive.

I agree with Sol -- given the infiltration of the NRA by Russia, this will be a pretty interesting thing to watch in the next few days/weeks.

3d printed guns still blow up regularly when you fire them, don't they?     Of course this will continue to improve, but I think the 3d printing process is going to be inferior to Glock manufacturing for a long time.

I'm guessing that's the case. I don't really have a dog in this fight. Like I said, I'm just looking at the behavior of Trump, and his sudden "consultation" with the NRA, and speculating as to why.

JLee

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3270 on: July 31, 2018, 03:28:35 PM »
Trrump's policies also seem to be making it more difficult to stay alive, or to catch killers, as his administration has just opened the gates to 3D printing guns.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-45018513

Let's be fair -- nobody can stop that.

Yeah.

Well, I mean . . . except the US State Department.  Which has been stopping those plans from being distributed since 2013.  But nobody can stop them any more.

You're exceptionally naive if you think the US State Department can prevent someone from downloading anything if they want to.

Let's go back to 2015: https://3dprint.com/73842/download-3d-printed-gun/

Well, I think after "consulting the NRA," which Trump said he's doing today, he'll "stop" this in its tracks.

Because 3D printed guns mean less money for the gun industry. Can't have that.

I don't think it will impact the gun industry at all - 3D printed guns are more of a novelty than anything. It is not as simple as just printing something up entirely out of plastic that is actually going to replace a legitimate firearm.

Perhaps not in the short term. But I wouldn't say that's true more long-term.

The fact that Trump is even starting to backtrack on this seems to be an indicator that the NRA doesn't want this to go forward. Can't imagine why else it would be a problem, other than the profit motive.

I agree with Sol -- given the infiltration of the NRA by Russia, this will be a pretty interesting thing to watch in the next few days/weeks.

3d printed guns still blow up regularly when you fire them, don't they?     Of course this will continue to improve, but I think the 3d printing process is going to be inferior to Glock manufacturing for a long time.

Yep, and you generally still need a barrel.  These 3D printed AR15's you read about are simply the lower receiver.

Btw there is already a law that prohibits entirely 3D printed / plastic firearms: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Undetectable_Firearms_Act

jim555

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3271 on: July 31, 2018, 04:45:57 PM »
They are dreaming if they think they can stop 3D plans from being published both from a constitutional and practical standpoint.  Security theater at its finest.


MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3272 on: July 31, 2018, 05:11:46 PM »
Looks like roughly 40% of Republicans either approve or don't strongly reject Russian interference in our elections. Man, what has happened to the GOP?

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3273 on: July 31, 2018, 05:44:00 PM »

Man, what has happened to the GOP?

It abdicated all pretense of fiscal responsibility, family values, free trade, and defending America in exchange for tax cuts for the wealthy and conservative judicial appointments.  They've traded respectability and decency for showmanship and demagoguery.

Personally I think it's a dying gasp masquerading as a power play.  The party knows it can't survive current demographic trends, so they've actively worked to suppress the vote and divide the nation in order to stay in power as long as possible.  They know their party won't survive the next decade, at least not in its current form,because basically nobody under the age of 30 likes anything they have to say.  Their full-throated embrace of divisive racial and class politics has basically ensured their own demise, but given them another election or two to leave one last black mark on our nation's history.

Maybe they'll be reborn?  They've done it before, after all.  The two political parties have basically traded places multiple times in the past (remember when republicans were the party of Lincoln and democrats were white southern slave holders?), so anything is possible.  But the current party platform is in its death throws, so in my mind the only question is what kind ideology they will embrace when they to reorganize.  And, I suppose, what kind of damage a 100% democratic government might do in retaliation for the Trump abomination.

And do note that I don't for one second believe that Trumpism is the next incarnation of the GOP.  Trumpism is the logical conclusion of Reaegan-era GOP policies, a steroid-fueled version of "morning in America" rather than an evolution or a reaction to it. 

If the democrats can't do it, I think the next incarnation of the GOP will champion universal healthcare and free education, in imitation of successful Scandinavian nations that have a higher per capita rate of millionaires and billionaires, and higher class mobility.  If they can rediscover their roots as libertarian "by the bootstraps" self-help promoters, they could bill the socialist model as a far more equitable meritocracy for hard-working Americans than the current system of inherited wealth, multigenerational systemic poverty, elitist ivory towers, and smoke-filled back rooms full of swamp creatures destined from birth to be rich and powerful.

Fireball

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3274 on: July 31, 2018, 10:31:23 PM »
Looks like roughly 40% of Republicans either approve or don't strongly reject Russian interference in our elections. Man, what has happened to the GOP?

Do you have a link for this, MasterStache? That pretty much matches up with what I hear in real life and all the conservative TV/radio shows.

MasterStache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3275 on: August 01, 2018, 06:30:12 AM »
Looks like roughly 40% of Republicans either approve or don't strongly reject Russian interference in our elections. Man, what has happened to the GOP?

Do you have a link for this, MasterStache? That pretty much matches up with what I hear in real life and all the conservative TV/radio shows.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/republicans-want-russia-influence-us-elections-202847050.html

talltexan

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3276 on: August 01, 2018, 06:54:20 AM »

Man, what has happened to the GOP?

It abdicated all pretense of fiscal responsibility, family values, free trade, and defending America in exchange for tax cuts for the wealthy and conservative judicial appointments.  They've traded respectability and decency for showmanship and demagoguery.

Personally I think it's a dying gasp masquerading as a power play.  The party knows it can't survive current demographic trends, so they've actively worked to suppress the vote and divide the nation in order to stay in power as long as possible.  They know their party won't survive the next decade, at least not in its current form,because basically nobody under the age of 30 likes anything they have to say.  Their full-throated embrace of divisive racial and class politics has basically ensured their own demise, but given them another election or two to leave one last black mark on our nation's history.


Sol- I think we agree that the Trump period involves selling a tax cut, conservative judges, and a dilution of the Affordable Care act to what were mainstream Republicans.

I think you have the dying gasp part wrong, though. Many Red states will continue to send two GOP senators to the senate for years. Many purple states will continue to Gerrymander themselves Red for years. I think Trump has shown Republicans what they can buy in exchange for accepting a defilement of law enforcement, ethical concerns, and rampant tribalism, and they like it.

And a lot of young people--those who practice Evangelical Christianity--think that progress in their direction on their pet issues is sufficient compensation for the stink of Trump. I'm not convinced Trump will lose in 2020. And if he wins then, there will be pressure to figure out how to have him win in 2024, too.

partgypsy

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3277 on: August 01, 2018, 07:02:50 AM »
Looks like roughly 40% of Republicans either approve or don't strongly reject Russian interference in our elections. Man, what has happened to the GOP?

Do you have a link for this, MasterStache? That pretty much matches up with what I hear in real life and all the conservative TV/radio shows.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/republicans-want-russia-influence-us-elections-202847050.html

All I can say is, wow. Those people are traitors to their own country. If you can't win fairly, get out of the US.

GuitarStv

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3278 on: August 01, 2018, 07:07:01 AM »
Looks like roughly 40% of Republicans either approve or don't strongly reject Russian interference in our elections. Man, what has happened to the GOP?

Do you have a link for this, MasterStache? That pretty much matches up with what I hear in real life and all the conservative TV/radio shows.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/republicans-want-russia-influence-us-elections-202847050.html

All I can say is, wow. Those people are traitors to their own country. If you can't win fairly, get out of the US.

Why is this a surprise?  We had several Republican supporters a few pages back arguing that Donald Trump was committing treason by the common use of the word but not by the legal definition - and therefore his actions were OK.  :P

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3279 on: August 01, 2018, 07:07:47 AM »

Man, what has happened to the GOP?

It abdicated all pretense of fiscal responsibility, family values, free trade, and defending America in exchange for tax cuts for the wealthy and conservative judicial appointments.  They've traded respectability and decency for showmanship and demagoguery.

Personally I think it's a dying gasp masquerading as a power play.  The party knows it can't survive current demographic trends, so they've actively worked to suppress the vote and divide the nation in order to stay in power as long as possible.  They know their party won't survive the next decade, at least not in its current form,because basically nobody under the age of 30 likes anything they have to say.  Their full-throated embrace of divisive racial and class politics has basically ensured their own demise, but given them another election or two to leave one last black mark on our nation's history.

Maybe they'll be reborn?  They've done it before, after all.  The two political parties have basically traded places multiple times in the past (remember when republicans were the party of Lincoln and democrats were white southern slave holders?), so anything is possible.  But the current party platform is in its death throws, so in my mind the only question is what kind ideology they will embrace when they to reorganize.  And, I suppose, what kind of damage a 100% democratic government might do in retaliation for the Trump abomination.

And do note that I don't for one second believe that Trumpism is the next incarnation of the GOP.  Trumpism is the logical conclusion of Reaegan-era GOP policies, a steroid-fueled version of "morning in America" rather than an evolution or a reaction to it. 

If the democrats can't do it, I think the next incarnation of the GOP will champion universal healthcare and free education, in imitation of successful Scandinavian nations that have a higher per capita rate of millionaires and billionaires, and higher class mobility.  If they can rediscover their roots as libertarian "by the bootstraps" self-help promoters, they could bill the socialist model as a far more equitable meritocracy for hard-working Americans than the current system of inherited wealth, multigenerational systemic poverty, elitist ivory towers, and smoke-filled back rooms full of swamp creatures destined from birth to be rich and powerful.

Good God, but I hope you're right.

But before any of that happens it seems we're skipping down the road to the Fourth Reich. http://thehill.com/regulation/administration/399482-sessions-announces-religious-liberty-task-force

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3280 on: August 01, 2018, 07:23:25 AM »
Sol- I think we agree that the Trump period involves selling a tax cut, conservative judges, and a dilution of the Affordable Care act to what were mainstream Republicans.

I think you have the dying gasp part wrong, though. Many Red states will continue to send two GOP senators to the senate for years. Many purple states will continue to Gerrymander themselves Red for years. I think Trump has shown Republicans what they can buy in exchange for accepting a defilement of law enforcement, ethical concerns, and rampant tribalism, and they like it.

And a lot of young people--those who practice Evangelical Christianity--think that progress in their direction on their pet issues is sufficient compensation for the stink of Trump. I'm not convinced Trump will lose in 2020. And if he wins then, there will be pressure to figure out how to have him win in 2024, too.

I agree with everything you just said. The GOP is not dying in the Red States. I've grown up and lived in the rural South my whole life. Young white people here just love him. There are only maybe four issues that most rural white people really care about: 1) Guns 2) Abortion 3) Immigration 4) PC Culture. Trump gives them what they like on these issues, and they just follow along with the rest because they really don't give two shits about tariffs or Russia.

Young rural white people are not much different in ideology than old rural white people. The only thing that may flip the tables on the GOP in the coming years is the continued growth of metropolitan areas in a few of their strongholds. It's already happened in Virginia, which is practically a blue state at this point. Atlanta is slowly turning Georgia purple, just as Charlotte, Asheville, and Raleigh-Durham are doing in North Carolina. Texas will be next in line, but that's decades from now. The rest of the southern states aren't going to change enough demographically to flip their electorates in the foreseeable future. And the GOP seems to be flourishing in the Midwest just as the South has begun heading the other direction.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3281 on: August 01, 2018, 07:27:34 AM »



Well, I think after "consulting the NRA," which Trump said he's doing today, he'll "stop" this in its tracks.

Because 3D printed guns mean less money for the gun industry. Can't have that.





Well, you forgot that the NRA doesn't need gun manufacturers' money anymore because they are backed by Trump's buddy Mr. Putin.  We all know Putin doesn't care where Americans get their guns, as long as we keep shooting each other.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3282 on: August 01, 2018, 07:28:25 AM »
The man has never bought groceries in his life.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3283 on: August 01, 2018, 07:29:43 AM »
Sol- I think we agree that the Trump period involves selling a tax cut, conservative judges, and a dilution of the Affordable Care act to what were mainstream Republicans.

I think you have the dying gasp part wrong, though. Many Red states will continue to send two GOP senators to the senate for years. Many purple states will continue to Gerrymander themselves Red for years. I think Trump has shown Republicans what they can buy in exchange for accepting a defilement of law enforcement, ethical concerns, and rampant tribalism, and they like it.

And a lot of young people--those who practice Evangelical Christianity--think that progress in their direction on their pet issues is sufficient compensation for the stink of Trump. I'm not convinced Trump will lose in 2020. And if he wins then, there will be pressure to figure out how to have him win in 2024, too.

I agree with everything you just said. The GOP is not dying in the Red States. I've grown up and lived in the rural South my whole life. Young white people here just love him. There are only maybe four issues that most rural white people really care about: 1) Guns 2) Abortion 3) Immigration 4) PC Culture. Trump gives them what they like on these issues, and they just follow along with the rest because they really don't give two shits about tariffs or Russia.

Young rural white people are not much different in ideology than old rural white people. The only thing that may flip the tables on the GOP in the coming years is the continued growth of metropolitan areas in a few of their strongholds. It's already happened in Virginia, which is practically a blue state at this point. Atlanta is slowly turning Georgia purple, just as Charlotte, Asheville, and Raleigh-Durham are doing in North Carolina. Texas will be next in line, but that's decades from now. The rest of the southern states aren't going to change enough demographically to flip their electorates in the foreseeable future. And the GOP seems to be flourishing in the Midwest just as the South has begun heading the other direction.

This is the part I wonder about.  None of these are directly economic issues, and nothing Trump is doing is going to do anything to improve the lives of the folks who are voting for him.  Will they remain content in the authoritarian future where they stay poor, sick, and uneducated? If the answer to that is Yes, is it good for the "rest" of the USA to stick together with them?  There is a numerical majority of people who would not choose that future.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3284 on: August 01, 2018, 08:05:14 AM »
Quote from: Mississippi Mudstache
I agree with everything you just said. The GOP is not dying in the Red States. I've grown up and lived in the rural South my whole life. Young white people here just love him. There are only maybe four issues that most rural white people really care about: 1) Guns 2) Abortion 3) Immigration 4) PC Culture. Trump gives them what they like on these issues, and they just follow along with the rest because they really don't give two shits about tariffs or Russia.

Young rural white people are not much different in ideology than old rural white people. The only thing that may flip the tables on the GOP in the coming years is the continued growth of metropolitan areas in a few of their strongholds. It's already happened in Virginia, which is practically a blue state at this point. Atlanta is slowly turning Georgia purple, just as Charlotte, Asheville, and Raleigh-Durham are doing in North Carolina. Texas will be next in line, but that's decades from now. The rest of the southern states aren't going to change enough demographically to flip their electorates in the foreseeable future. And the GOP seems to be flourishing in the Midwest just as the South has begun heading the other direction.

This is the part I wonder about.  None of these are directly economic issues, and nothing Trump is doing is going to do anything to improve the lives of the folks who are voting for him.  Will they remain content in the authoritarian future where they stay poor, sick, and uneducated? If the answer to that is Yes, is it good for the "rest" of the USA to stick together with them?  There is a numerical majority of people who would not choose that future.

You're showing off your bias with that question. Yeah, there are plenty of "poor, sick, and uneducated" people in the South, but guess what? Lots of them vote for Democrats. Democratic votes tend to be concentrated in the lowest and highest echelons of wealth and education in the South. The Republicans win by absolutely dominating the middle class.

Let me pull a few examples from my home state of Georgia. If we look the top quintile of "most educated" counties, HRC won 11/32. If we look at the bottom quintile of "least educated" counties, HRC won 10/32 - nearly the same proportion. However, look at the middle three quintiles and the story is different: HRC claimed only 10/95.

Let's do the same analysis with median income. HRC claimed 8/32 in the top quintile. She won 11/32 in the bottom quintile, including every single one of the seven poorest counties. She only won 12/95 in the middle three quintiles. (source).

Why do things shake out this way? Simple. The poorest and least educated southerners are mostly blacks and other minorities. Middle-class whites are generally better off than minorities, and they want to remain better off. So they vote for candidates who will fight progress. The poorest whites tend not to affiliate with any party and don't really turn out to vote in big margins. The white middle class is the key, and they are not largely motivated by economic issues, because frankly they're doing fine (at least in comparison to the minorities that they live among). If you want to understand middle-class white southerners, then understand this: They are motivated by culturally conservative values, to the exclusion of all other issues.


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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3285 on: August 01, 2018, 08:09:09 AM »
Sol- I think we agree that the Trump period involves selling a tax cut, conservative judges, and a dilution of the Affordable Care act to what were mainstream Republicans.

I think you have the dying gasp part wrong, though. Many Red states will continue to send two GOP senators to the senate for years. Many purple states will continue to Gerrymander themselves Red for years. I think Trump has shown Republicans what they can buy in exchange for accepting a defilement of law enforcement, ethical concerns, and rampant tribalism, and they like it.

And a lot of young people--those who practice Evangelical Christianity--think that progress in their direction on their pet issues is sufficient compensation for the stink of Trump. I'm not convinced Trump will lose in 2020. And if he wins then, there will be pressure to figure out how to have him win in 2024, too.

I agree with everything you just said. The GOP is not dying in the Red States. I've grown up and lived in the rural South my whole life. Young white people here just love him. There are only maybe four issues that most rural white people really care about: 1) Guns 2) Abortion 3) Immigration 4) PC Culture. Trump gives them what they like on these issues, and they just follow along with the rest because they really don't give two shits about tariffs or Russia.

Young rural white people are not much different in ideology than old rural white people. The only thing that may flip the tables on the GOP in the coming years is the continued growth of metropolitan areas in a few of their strongholds. It's already happened in Virginia, which is practically a blue state at this point. Atlanta is slowly turning Georgia purple, just as Charlotte, Asheville, and Raleigh-Durham are doing in North Carolina. Texas will be next in line, but that's decades from now. The rest of the southern states aren't going to change enough demographically to flip their electorates in the foreseeable future. And the GOP seems to be flourishing in the Midwest just as the South has begun heading the other direction.

This is the part I wonder about.  None of these are directly economic issues, and nothing Trump is doing is going to do anything to improve the lives of the folks who are voting for him.  Will they remain content in the authoritarian future where they stay poor, sick, and uneducated? If the answer to that is Yes, is it good for the "rest" of the USA to stick together with them?  There is a numerical majority of people who would not choose that future.

If it makes the liberals cry, then sadly yes - they'll be happy as could be.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3286 on: August 01, 2018, 08:26:39 AM »
Quote from: Mississippi Mudstache
I agree with everything you just said. The GOP is not dying in the Red States. I've grown up and lived in the rural South my whole life. Young white people here just love him. There are only maybe four issues that most rural white people really care about: 1) Guns 2) Abortion 3) Immigration 4) PC Culture. Trump gives them what they like on these issues, and they just follow along with the rest because they really don't give two shits about tariffs or Russia.

Young rural white people are not much different in ideology than old rural white people. The only thing that may flip the tables on the GOP in the coming years is the continued growth of metropolitan areas in a few of their strongholds. It's already happened in Virginia, which is practically a blue state at this point. Atlanta is slowly turning Georgia purple, just as Charlotte, Asheville, and Raleigh-Durham are doing in North Carolina. Texas will be next in line, but that's decades from now. The rest of the southern states aren't going to change enough demographically to flip their electorates in the foreseeable future. And the GOP seems to be flourishing in the Midwest just as the South has begun heading the other direction.

This is the part I wonder about.  None of these are directly economic issues, and nothing Trump is doing is going to do anything to improve the lives of the folks who are voting for him.  Will they remain content in the authoritarian future where they stay poor, sick, and uneducated? If the answer to that is Yes, is it good for the "rest" of the USA to stick together with them?  There is a numerical majority of people who would not choose that future.

You're showing off your bias with that question. Yeah, there are plenty of "poor, sick, and uneducated" people in the South, but guess what? Lots of them vote for Democrats. Democratic votes tend to be concentrated in the lowest and highest echelons of wealth and education in the South. The Republicans win by absolutely dominating the middle class.

Let me pull a few examples from my home state of Georgia. If we look the top quintile of "most educated" counties, HRC won 11/32. If we look at the bottom quintile of "least educated" counties, HRC won 10/32 - nearly the same proportion. However, look at the middle three quintiles and the story is different: HRC claimed only 10/95.

Let's do the same analysis with median income. HRC claimed 8/32 in the top quintile. She won 11/32 in the bottom quintile, including every single one of the seven poorest counties. She only won 12/95 in the middle three quintiles. (source).

Why do things shake out this way? Simple. The poorest and least educated southerners are mostly blacks and other minorities. Middle-class whites are generally better off than minorities, and they want to remain better off. So they vote for candidates who will fight progress. The poorest whites tend not to affiliate with any party and don't really turn out to vote in big margins. The white middle class is the key, and they are not largely motivated by economic issues, because frankly they're doing fine (at least in comparison to the minorities that they live among). If you want to understand middle-class white southerners, then understand this: They are motivated by culturally conservative values, to the exclusion of all other issues.

I apologize for any implicit bias there, I'm aware of these nuances but was oversimplifying.  My thought is about Trump/GOP voters, not folks likely to vote Democrat. 

To put it another way, if Mississippi wants to become prosperous, with a high standard of living for all, how long can they sustain the voting patterns that have gotten them where they are?  And if they don't, are we pursuing a losing strategy by including them in the Union?

This is on my mind as I overheard someone talking along the lines of, "if we keep the rural south poor we can outsource manufacturing there at wages as low as they are overseas, save money on transportation, and have our investments backed by the US financial system!"  To which the other person replied, "yeah but you'd need to get rid of OSHA, the EPA, and rest of it."

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3287 on: August 01, 2018, 08:32:41 AM »

I agree with everything you just said. The GOP is not dying in the Red States. I've grown up and lived in the rural South my whole life. Young white people here just love him. There are only maybe four issues that most rural white people really care about: 1) Guns 2) Abortion 3) Immigration 4) PC Culture.
[snip]

I agree this is probably the case (boradly speaking), but I'm trying very hard to understand how these can be the issues rural GOP voters care about. 
1) Guns - as in 'pry them from my cold dead fingers'.  The worry here seems to be the 'government' taking them away with future legislation, not that current legislation curtails their self-interpreted 2nd amendment right. It seems no promises by any Dem candidate or court protections are enough to sway opinion that Dems = no guns/limited guns.

2) abortion. I get that this is a moral issue for some, but it seems limited in scope given the fervor it creates from the anti-abortion crowd (something like 1.2% of reproductive women per year and a comparable percentage to # of live births).  That its an issue for so many older men just strikes me as odd, particularly since they often are simultaneously opposed to programs that prevent pregnancy and help support unplanned children.

3) Immigration.  I guess immigrants are (once again) the scapegoat of all our societal ills?  A casual look at the data shows them to be, on average, productive upstanding members of society.  The fear that we will somehow 'lose our culture' with immigrants nearby is equally bizarre to me - shifts in culture happen because people discover new foods, music and mannerisms they like and incoporate into their daily lives.  how would that be bad?  tl;dr - empanadas are fantastic!

4) PC Culture. I guess I don't understand why this would motivate people to vote - what exactly are they protesting against? They want to continue to use terms other people find offensive?  Personally I've never found PC culture to be very burdensome; it basically fits how I was raised - if someone says they don't like being called a certain name, stop calling them that. I also can't understand why people care so much about who poops where.

... all I'd a fifth to the list
5) Military (hero worship). It's become obligatory in many places and events to pledge fealty to the military.  The narrative has been subtly changed from "It's a great honor to serve one's country" to "we must honor those who serve". Meanwhile our annual military budget exceeds that of any other country, and is higher than the next 8 countries combined. The adage - 'when the only tool in your bag is a hammer every (international) problem starts resembling a nail" comes to mind.

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3288 on: August 01, 2018, 08:52:38 AM »
I apologize for any implicit bias there, I'm aware of these nuances but was oversimplifying.  My thought is about Trump/GOP voters, not folks likely to vote Democrat. 

To put it another way, if Mississippi wants to become prosperous, with a high standard of living for all, how long can they sustain the voting patterns that have gotten them where they are?  And if they don't, are we pursuing a losing strategy by including them in the Union?

This is on my mind as I overheard someone talking along the lines of, "if we keep the rural south poor we can outsource manufacturing there at wages as low as they are overseas, save money on transportation, and have our investments backed by the US financial system!"  To which the other person replied, "yeah but you'd need to get rid of OSHA, the EPA, and rest of it."

As you might imagine from my screen name, I used to live in Mississippi, so this line really struck me: "if Mississippi wants to become prosperous"...

I don't think you have the slightest understanding of what the average Mississippian wants. They want nothing to change. They don't want a new subdivision to be built next door. They don't want a new traffic light because the intersection down the road from their house is becoming more crowded with cars from new residents. They don't want the EPA to dictate what kind of diesel engine they can use in their logging equipment or how much cow shit can run off of their land into the adjacent river. They don't want to integrate their schools. They don't want their tax money going to fund Medicaid for the poor black kids who live on the east side of the railroad tracks. They don't want to see two men holding hands while walking down the sidewalk in front of their house. They do not want change. Prosperity? No, that's not a motivating issue for them. They are middle class, and they are perfectly content to remain that way. Yes, I'm generalizing, but you've got to understand that these generalizations are far closer to reality than "If Mississippi wants to become prosperous"...
« Last Edit: August 01, 2018, 08:56:20 AM by Mississippi Mudstache »

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3289 on: August 01, 2018, 08:57:24 AM »

I agree with everything you just said. The GOP is not dying in the Red States. I've grown up and lived in the rural South my whole life. Young white people here just love him. There are only maybe four issues that most rural white people really care about: 1) Guns 2) Abortion 3) Immigration 4) PC Culture.
[snip]

I agree this is probably the case (boradly speaking), but I'm trying very hard to understand how these can be the issues rural GOP voters care about. 
1) Guns - as in 'pry them from my cold dead fingers'.  The worry here seems to be the 'government' taking them away with future legislation, not that current legislation curtails their self-interpreted 2nd amendment right. It seems no promises by any Dem candidate or court protections are enough to sway opinion that Dems = no guns/limited guns.

2) abortion. I get that this is a moral issue for some, but it seems limited in scope given the fervor it creates from the anti-abortion crowd (something like 1.2% of reproductive women per year and a comparable percentage to # of live births).  That its an issue for so many older men just strikes me as odd, particularly since they often are simultaneously opposed to programs that prevent pregnancy and help support unplanned children.

3) Immigration.  I guess immigrants are (once again) the scapegoat of all our societal ills?  A casual look at the data shows them to be, on average, productive upstanding members of society.  The fear that we will somehow 'lose our culture' with immigrants nearby is equally bizarre to me - shifts in culture happen because people discover new foods, music and mannerisms they like and incoporate into their daily lives.  how would that be bad?  tl;dr - empanadas are fantastic!

4) PC Culture. I guess I don't understand why this would motivate people to vote - what exactly are they protesting against? They want to continue to use terms other people find offensive?  Personally I've never found PC culture to be very burdensome; it basically fits how I was raised - if someone says they don't like being called a certain name, stop calling them that. I also can't understand why people care so much about who poops where.

... all I'd a fifth to the list
5) Military (hero worship). It's become obligatory in many places and events to pledge fealty to the military.  The narrative has been subtly changed from "It's a great honor to serve one's country" to "we must honor those who serve". Meanwhile our annual military budget exceeds that of any other country, and is higher than the next 8 countries combined. The adage - 'when the only tool in your bag is a hammer every (international) problem starts resembling a nail" comes to mind.

dude you are overthinking. Stop using your brain and start using your gut reaction to these topics instead. Press hot button - react! Rinse, repeat. Remember to NOT use your brain, higher reasoning skills or anything resembling evidence-based processes, because oh yeah Trump administration doesn't want grant proposals to even use term "evidence based".

So what if the Rich are literally screwing them? And laughing their way to the bank while bankrupting the US? As long as other people (poor, minorities, gay people, women seeking an abortion) get screwed worse.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3290 on: August 01, 2018, 08:59:03 AM »

I agree with everything you just said. The GOP is not dying in the Red States. I've grown up and lived in the rural South my whole life. Young white people here just love him. There are only maybe four issues that most rural white people really care about: 1) Guns 2) Abortion 3) Immigration 4) PC Culture.
[snip]

I agree this is probably the case (boradly speaking), but I'm trying very hard to understand how these can be the issues rural GOP voters care about. 
1) Guns - as in 'pry them from my cold dead fingers'.  The worry here seems to be the 'government' taking them away with future legislation, not that current legislation curtails their self-interpreted 2nd amendment right. It seems no promises by any Dem candidate or court protections are enough to sway opinion that Dems = no guns/limited guns.

2) abortion. I get that this is a moral issue for some, but it seems limited in scope given the fervor it creates from the anti-abortion crowd (something like 1.2% of reproductive women per year and a comparable percentage to # of live births).  That its an issue for so many older men just strikes me as odd, particularly since they often are simultaneously opposed to programs that prevent pregnancy and help support unplanned children.

3) Immigration.  I guess immigrants are (once again) the scapegoat of all our societal ills?  A casual look at the data shows them to be, on average, productive upstanding members of society.  The fear that we will somehow 'lose our culture' with immigrants nearby is equally bizarre to me - shifts in culture happen because people discover new foods, music and mannerisms they like and incoporate into their daily lives.  how would that be bad?  tl;dr - empanadas are fantastic!

4) PC Culture. I guess I don't understand why this would motivate people to vote - what exactly are they protesting against? They want to continue to use terms other people find offensive?  Personally I've never found PC culture to be very burdensome; it basically fits how I was raised - if someone says they don't like being called a certain name, stop calling them that. I also can't understand why people care so much about who poops where.

... all I'd a fifth to the list
5) Military (hero worship). It's become obligatory in many places and events to pledge fealty to the military.  The narrative has been subtly changed from "It's a great honor to serve one's country" to "we must honor those who serve". Meanwhile our annual military budget exceeds that of any other country, and is higher than the next 8 countries combined. The adage - 'when the only tool in your bag is a hammer every (international) problem starts resembling a nail" comes to mind.
PC Culture is such a one way street as well.  If you call out people as bigoted or racist, they fly off the handle.  You're just calling it what it is!
https://www.mediamatters.org/video/2018/07/27/fox-segment-dismisses-racial-justice-protests-guest-claims-there-nothing-worse-being-called-racist/220819
Isn't this a double standard?

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3291 on: August 01, 2018, 09:00:08 AM »

dude you are overthinking. Stop using your brain and start using your gut reaction to these topics instead. Press hot button - react! Rinse, repeat. Remember to NOT use your brain, higher reasoning skills or anything resembling evidence-based processes, because oh yeah Trump administration doesn't want grant proposals to even use term "evidence based".

...yeah, i have that problem a lot.  Occupational hazard I guess
:-P

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3292 on: August 01, 2018, 09:15:47 AM »

I agree with everything you just said. The GOP is not dying in the Red States. I've grown up and lived in the rural South my whole life. Young white people here just love him. There are only maybe four issues that most rural white people really care about: 1) Guns 2) Abortion 3) Immigration 4) PC Culture.
[snip]

I agree this is probably the case (broadly speaking), but I'm trying very hard to understand how these can be the issues rural GOP voters care about...

I'm not asking you or anyone to understand why. I'm just telling you what I hear non-stop from my conservative family members and on my Facebook feed. I'm a rural, middle-class southern white who was raised in a rural, middle-class southern community by a family of rural middle-class southern whites. These are my people, I still don't understand it.

Not gonna lie. My dad has a Master's degree, a pension with a cash value north of $3 million, and he retired as a high-ranking government official. If I had to rank his top political priorities, I'd put PC culture at the top of the goddamn list. Mind you, he wouldn't put it there, but that's my inference based on the crap that he complains about. You'd be surprised how many seemingly normal people are motivated by gay marriage, transgender bathrooms, the "Me Too" movement, and gender-neutral pronouns. Those are practically the only "political" issues that my Dad even talks about.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2018, 09:23:08 AM by Mississippi Mudstache »

wbranch

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3293 on: August 01, 2018, 10:33:24 AM »

I agree with everything you just said. The GOP is not dying in the Red States. I've grown up and lived in the rural South my whole life. Young white people here just love him. There are only maybe four issues that most rural white people really care about: 1) Guns 2) Abortion 3) Immigration 4) PC Culture.
[snip]

I agree this is probably the case (broadly speaking), but I'm trying very hard to understand how these can be the issues rural GOP voters care about...

I'm not asking you or anyone to understand why. I'm just telling you what I hear non-stop from my conservative family members and on my Facebook feed. I'm a rural, middle-class southern white who was raised in a rural, middle-class southern community by a family of rural middle-class southern whites. These are my people, I still don't understand it.

Not gonna lie. My dad has a Master's degree, a pension with a cash value north of $3 million, and he retired as a high-ranking government official. If I had to rank his top political priorities, I'd put PC culture at the top of the goddamn list. Mind you, he wouldn't put it there, but that's my inference based on the crap that he complains about. You'd be surprised how many seemingly normal people are motivated by gay marriage, transgender bathrooms, the "Me Too" movement, and gender-neutral pronouns. Those are practically the only "political" issues that my Dad even talks about.

I agree with all of your posts regarding the top 4 issues when applying them to the majority of people in rural areas throughout the northern midwest where I grew up and the intermountain west where I currently live. I would say they vote based on guns and/or abortion. Immigration combined with the PC culture is just a bonus that pisses of liberals in their minds.

sol

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3294 on: August 01, 2018, 10:56:20 AM »
Terminology matters.  I think you could honestly label those four issues as promoting gun violence, restricting individual freedoms for women, embracing racism, and defending hate speech.

The conservative world view confuses me.  They defend individual liberty, except for women.  They promote states rights, except for California.  They want fiscal responsibility, unless you can use debt to give a tax cut to billionaires.  They whine about religious persecution, then burn down mosques.  They want a strong military to defend America, then welcome hostile foreign powers subverting our democracy.  They blather about family values, then elect a serial philanderer. 

Wtf, people?  What do you even stand for anymore?

Because the only common theme I see in these contradictions is a thinly veiled effort to preserve power for the wealthy white Christian males that have always had power in America.  It sure looks like all of that ideology stuff was just a front, a cheap veneer of on top of policies motivated by greed, hatred, misogyny, and racism.  Is that all that "conservatives" really want?
« Last Edit: August 01, 2018, 11:38:50 AM by sol »

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3295 on: August 01, 2018, 11:24:22 AM »
Terminology matters.  I think you could honestly label those for issues as promoting gun violence, restricting individual freedoms for women, embracing racism, and defending hate speech.

The conservative world view confuses me.  They defend individual liberty, except for women.  They promote states rights, except for California.  They want fiscal responsibility, unless you can use debt to give a tax cut to billionaires.  They whine about religious persecution, then burn down mosques.  They want a strong military to defend America, then welcome hostile foreign powers subverting our democracy.  They blather about family values, then elect a serial philanderer. 

Wtf, people?  What do you even stand for anymore?

Because the only common theme I see in these contradictions is a thinly veiled effort to preserve power for the wealthy white Christian males that have always had power in America.  It sure looks like all if that ideology stuff was just a front, a cheap veneer of on top of policies motivated by greed, hatred, misogyny, and racism.  Is that all that "conservatives" really want?

It's not confusing.  They want liberty, civility, etc. as long as it relates to their straight, white, (probably male), Christian worldview.  Anything other than that is offensive and should be rooted out.  They like their status.  They don't want others to also have the opportunity to attain said status.  They are simply scared of people who are "other" having the ability to rise - be it socially, financially, politically, etc.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3296 on: August 01, 2018, 11:25:59 AM »
Terminology matters.  I think you could honestly label those for issues as promoting gun violence, restricting individual freedoms for women, embracing racism, and defending hate speech.

The conservative world view confuses me.  They defend individual liberty, except for women.  They promote states rights, except for California.  They want fiscal responsibility, unless you can use debt to give a tax cut to billionaires.  They whine about religious persecution, then burn down mosques.  They want a strong military to defend America, then welcome hostile foreign powers subverting our democracy.  They blather about family values, then elect a serial philanderer. 

Wtf, people?  What do you even stand for anymore?

Because the only common theme I see in these contradictions is a thinly veiled effort to preserve power for the wealthy white Christian males that have always had power in America.  It sure looks like all if that ideology stuff was just a front, a cheap veneer of on top of policies motivated by greed, hatred, misogyny, and racism.  Is that all that "conservatives" really want?

Yeah, you can frame it any way you like, but ultimately what conservatives want, more than anything else, is for things to not change. White Christian males have always held the lion's share of power in society. Even those with little real power individually - the white middle class - hold tremendous power collectively. Their (Our) grip is weakening, and most don't want to give it up without a fight. It's not surprising, really. It's human nature. Progress demands that we share, but our instincts demand that we hoard. It's a recipe for conflict.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3297 on: August 01, 2018, 11:33:10 AM »
Humans are naturally very tribal.  I feel like most  liberals either don't realize this, or refuse to believe it, and it really impairs their messaging when trying to win elections.

I've been listening to and reading a lot of research recently that indicates that ANY PERCEPTION that your tribe is losing numbers and/or status relative to other tribes causes people to become more conservative in political views and in voting.  This includes members of statistically minority 'tribes' who perceive themselves as losing status relative to their previous status.  Interestingly, the shift to align with conservative positions apparently includes a shift to be more conservative on policies not even related to immigration and demographics (e.g., on environmental issues, military spending, etc.).

This perception of status change that drives the ideological shift often has almost nothing to do with ACTUAL numbers of each 'tribe', nor the day to day conditions the anxious tribe is experiencing.  They might be secure economically, with decent jobs (most white Trump voters were).  They might not even be living in towns or states that are experiencing much growth in minority populations (also true of most Trump voters). 

I grew up in a small, 99% white, mostly protestant, Midwestern town that voted for Trump, and I have seen this is action.  When I was a kid you could literally count racial minority families on one hand (mostly Native American). There was one Jewish family.  LGBT people were all closeted. At this time, b/c most of the residents were white, tribalism and prejudice appeared along other lines: non protestants were suspect...Catholics in particular were considered to be the 'rednecks' of the town. The town divided tribally between working and professional classes (education and financial status). My family was professional class and there was a lot of angst among the older generation on how to keep the town from becoming 'trashy' (i.e., how to increase the number and power of professional class, educated, conservative voting protestants) and how to discourage leftist 'hippies' (whites with non conforming clothes/grooming/jewelry/long hair or facial hair) from cluttering up the town during the tourist season.  The 'power elite' (LOL) never worried about discouraging racial minorities b/c they weren't even on anyone's radar.

When I go back now, I might see a dozen minority-race people during a couple rounds of the downtown.  There are a few yoga studios (:gasp: HIPPIES!!!) and a Whole Foods knockoff (MORE HIPPIES).  I saw a gay couple (men) holding hands in the street.  Now, objectively speaking, this is an obvious indicator that there has been a large increase in the relative number, and somewhat of an increase in relative percent, of minorities (or at least visible minorities) since my childhood.  But in reality, the town is still 95% white (according to Wikipedia, anyway) and probably still mostly Protestant.

However, the reality of numbers is not very related to how most people emotionally process just seeing/casual exposure to more minorities and/or diversity in their environment.  For example, I was listening to a discussion of survey data about changing U.S. demographics.  Currently, MOST white Americans believe that the U.S. is already a majority minority country even though it is not expected to be that for another ~20 years.  Further, e.g., white Ohioans believe that they are CURRENTLY the minority in Ohio, and they have believed this for some years, DESPITE the fact that whites actually comprise ~82% of the population!!

Perception is reality when it comes to voting, and the Dems have a staggeringly stupid habit of tending to message their campaigns in ways that draw further attention to diversity, and to the grievances of sub-groups and special interests within their coalition, which naturally feeds into tribalistic instincts in voters, even some voters who might otherwise be receptive to their economic messaging.

Unless Dems figure out a way around this problem, I think we're going to see the GOP party of white anxiety hang on a lot longer than demographic shifts indicate they could or should.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2018, 11:39:00 AM by wenchsenior »

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3298 on: August 01, 2018, 11:37:00 AM »

I agree with everything you just said. The GOP is not dying in the Red States. I've grown up and lived in the rural South my whole life. Young white people here just love him. There are only maybe four issues that most rural white people really care about: 1) Guns 2) Abortion 3) Immigration 4) PC Culture.
[snip]

I agree this is probably the case (boradly speaking), but I'm trying very hard to understand how these can be the issues rural GOP voters care about. 
1) Guns - as in 'pry them from my cold dead fingers'.  The worry here seems to be the 'government' taking them away with future legislation, not that current legislation curtails their self-interpreted 2nd amendment right. It seems no promises by any Dem candidate or court protections are enough to sway opinion that Dems = no guns/limited guns.

2) abortion. I get that this is a moral issue for some, but it seems limited in scope given the fervor it creates from the anti-abortion crowd (something like 1.2% of reproductive women per year and a comparable percentage to # of live births).  That its an issue for so many older men just strikes me as odd, particularly since they often are simultaneously opposed to programs that prevent pregnancy and help support unplanned children.

3) Immigration.  I guess immigrants are (once again) the scapegoat of all our societal ills?  A casual look at the data shows them to be, on average, productive upstanding members of society.  The fear that we will somehow 'lose our culture' with immigrants nearby is equally bizarre to me - shifts in culture happen because people discover new foods, music and mannerisms they like and incoporate into their daily lives.  how would that be bad?  tl;dr - empanadas are fantastic!

4) PC Culture. I guess I don't understand why this would motivate people to vote - what exactly are they protesting against? They want to continue to use terms other people find offensive?  Personally I've never found PC culture to be very burdensome; it basically fits how I was raised - if someone says they don't like being called a certain name, stop calling them that. I also can't understand why people care so much about who poops where.

... all I'd a fifth to the list
5) Military (hero worship). It's become obligatory in many places and events to pledge fealty to the military.  The narrative has been subtly changed from "It's a great honor to serve one's country" to "we must honor those who serve". Meanwhile our annual military budget exceeds that of any other country, and is higher than the next 8 countries combined. The adage - 'when the only tool in your bag is a hammer every (international) problem starts resembling a nail" comes to mind.


The only way to reach a common ground is to find a better middle place from both sides on all of these important issues.

1. It is not allow guns / ban guns. 2A is not going away and the subsequent rights to assembly and form a militia are in the constitution to stay also. I think much of the gun control discussion is up to State gov to hammer out. Illinois is very tough in terms of gun laws but look at Chicago, every weekend about 20 shootings and incredibly low crime solve rate. Printed guns are now a threat and the streets are flooded with illegal guns. Middle ground is tough here but many states are looking at making purchase harder, it will be interesting to see which policies succeed.

2. Abortion, again not simply allow / don't allow. I think many Conservative have a bigger concern at the frequency some people have them, and whether late term abortions are ethical as the fetus may have a sense of awareness. I agree that a ban on abortion is not something the government has a right to do. But I also see a fundamental ethical failure of a society that is so quick to dispose of a fetus due to careless decisions. There is middle ground there. I think late term abortions are terribly unethical, and the current lack of accountability makes this procedure as common place as getting a manicure.

3. Immigration. This needs to be regulated. Not stopped, but not a free flow. My wife has a green card. She came here legally, we met, she stayed. Dreamers should have a shot at naturalization, not simply labeled for someone else to decide later. Yes, immigrants mainly come here and contribute to make America great, but the border does need secured. We need to know who comes, who stays and open borders is not ethically or financially wise. We need significant restructuring to a currently overloaded Department of Immigration and find solutions for those that are here. We do have a significant homeless problem that should be addressed before allowing thousands per convoy to enter unobstructed. When people sneak in, they can (and some are) bringing drugs, human cattle, and even returning after being deported from crimes like murder. Yes, this is a small percentage, but again, I say control the border. We do need to be ready to assist countries with emerging problems.
 
I really like Nikki Haley's UN efforts to address refugee countries and try Conflict Prevention over Conflict resolution. Much over due and I hope more of NATO gets on board to try and limit these convoys by helping countries heal

4. PC Culture, This will always be a far right vs the Far Right. Too many want to exercise their rights while suppressing those that disagree.

5. Military. I would group Police and First Responders into this category too. I think they all play crucial roles. If I had a say, more so than voting, I would not cut the military, I would rather see them become more diverse to better assist with Domestic issues. When Katrina hit, I was stationed in New Orleans and it took a bit for our logistics and air assets to fit into the rescue plan. I am sorry that you feel like the Military is hounding you so hard to respect them, it seems uncharacteristic to me but I don't know you. I do believe that police need respect and any message to protest police brutality (which I admit exists) should also include a discussion about crime and the people committing them. Cops put themselves in harm's way. The same mention you make to most immigrants are good, I feel the same is also true about police. Cities like Baltimore and Chicago are trying to recover from some serious murder and crime rate spikes as the Police are painted as the "Bad Guy". Politicians are calling for physical aggression against other politicians and the "Sores of Discontent" have been rubbed for 8 years. I have no expectation for society to respect the military, I didn't sign up for that. I would hope though, that people fight for societal change without trying to avoid the accountability that makes everyone safe though.

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Re: So Let's Speculate about the Future of a Full Trump Presidency...
« Reply #3299 on: August 01, 2018, 11:40:29 AM »
Terminology matters.  I think you could honestly label those four issues as promoting gun violence, restricting individual freedoms for women, embracing racism, and defending hate speech.

The conservative world view confuses me.  They defend individual liberty, except for women.  They promote states rights, except for California.  They want fiscal responsibility, unless you can use debt to give a tax cut to billionaires.  They whine about religious persecution, then burn down mosques.  They want a strong military to defend America, then welcome hostile foreign powers subverting our democracy.  They blather about family values, then elect a serial philanderer. 

Wtf, people?  What do you even stand for anymore?

Because the only common theme I see in these contradictions is a thinly veiled effort to preserve power for the wealthy white Christian males that have always had power in America.  It sure looks like all of that ideology stuff was just a front, a cheap veneer of on top of policies motivated by greed, hatred, misogyny, and racism.  Is that all that "conservatives" really want?
From what I can tell, they want the 1950's to never end. We all liked Back to the Future, right?

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!