Positives for FIRE with the election results

[dividendman]

Hi folks, I would like this thread to focus on any positive (or likely to be positive) points the Trump presidency and the Republican Congress would have on FIRE goals. There are already plenty of threads on negative impacts (like unknowns with the ACA) so let's try to think positive in this thread!

I can see a couple of things that might be good for people who are going for FIRE.

1) Raising the standard deduction for individuals to $15k would seem to benefit many of us who are planning for relatively low incomes in early retirement.
2) Decreasing the corporate tax rate to 15% will likely have a positive impact on stocks (I think?) and hence good for us high savers or people nearing early retirement.

Can anyone think of anything else? I'm trying to decipher his Childcare tax policy, but having no children myself, I didn't put much effort into figuring it out.

[Jack]

* crickets chirping *

[frugalnacho]

I think everyone is being overly dramatic about the sky falling and all the doom and gloom.  I realize there are a lot of issues that will come up that will definitely affect a lot of individuals, but my life is going to remain largely unchanged.

My biggest hope is that some of the gloom and doom is correct and trump totally tanks the economy and the markets hit near record lows for the next 4 or 8 years while I am accumulating and buying everything on sale.  Then they recover fantastically and I FIRE with a huge stach. 

[deadlymonkey]

I think everyone is being overly dramatic about the sky falling and all the doom and gloom.  I realize there are a lot of issues that will come up that will definitely affect a lot of individuals, but my life is going to remain largely unchanged.

My biggest hope is that some of the gloom and doom is correct and trump totally tanks the economy and the markets hit near record lows for the next 4 or 8 years while I am accumulating and buying everything on sale.  Then they recover fantastically and I FIRE with a huge stach.

My occupation is pretty well insulated from any effect of a Trump presidency.  I hope he does everything he says he wants to do and burns the place down.  Maybe in the ashes, the fever will break and we can actually work to rebuild the country.  Doubtful it will go that way but we'll see.

[bacchi]

Hi folks, I would like this thread to focus on any positive (or likely to be positive) points the Trump presidency and the Republican Congress would have on FIRE goals. There are already plenty of threads on negative impacts (like unknowns with the ACA) so let's try to think positive in this thread!

I can see a couple of things that might be good for people who are going for FIRE.

1) Raising the standard deduction for individuals to $15k would seem to benefit many of us who are planning for relatively low incomes in early retirement.
2) Decreasing the corporate tax rate to 15% will likely have a positive impact on stocks (I think?) and hence good for us high savers or people nearing early retirement.

Can anyone think of anything else? I'm trying to decipher his Childcare tax policy, but having no children myself, I didn't put much effort into figuring it out.

1) The raised SD won't affect most of us getting money from Roth conversions.

2) This will be helpful, at least in the short to medium term. In the long term, the potential for increased national debt will be bad for all of us.

[2Birds1Stone]

Geoarbitrage is suddenly more appealing?

No uninsured tax + medical tourism?

Bottle people's reactionary tears from this historic election result and sell it on ebay in a few years to pay for the above?

I can't think of any actual positives unfortunately.

[Gimesalot]

Trump seems to be more protectionist and American focused as opposed to worrying about the rest of the world.  I think this is a good thing.  For too long, the US has been the only super power.  I think that if Trump makes us more inward focused, then other countries with their ideas and ideals can rise.  There's the possibility for a lot of good for the world overall.  For Americans, not so much.

[FINate]

From Trump's policy positions on his website (https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies). If he actually follows through on his platform, potential positives for FIRE and those working towards this goal:

Rewriting the tax code to allow working parents to deduct from their income taxes child care expenses for up to four children and elderly dependents.

Allow parents to enroll in tax-free dependent care savings accounts for their children or elderly relatives.

Incentivizing employers to provide childcare at the workplace.

Provide 6 weeks of paid leave to new mothers before returning to work.

The Trump Plan will lower the business tax rate from 35 percent to 15 percent, and eliminate the corporate alternative minimum tax. This rate is available to all businesses, both small and large, that want to retain the profits within the business. [Good for US companies, good for the stock market.]

It will provide a deemed repatriation of corporate profits held offshore at a one-time tax rate of 10 percent. [If companies bring cash back the US, a bigly amount will probably go to stock buybacks, good for your stache.]

Immediately add an additional federal investment of $20 billion towards school choice. This will be done by reprioritizing existing federal dollars [Would make it possible for people to live in lower cost areas with "bad schools" by having vouchers for private school or even home schooling]

[spud1987]

From Trump's policy positions on his website (https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies). If he actually follows through on his platform, potential positives for FIRE and those working towards this goal:

Rewriting the tax code to allow working parents to deduct from their income taxes child care expenses for up to four children and elderly dependents.

Allow parents to enroll in tax-free dependent care savings accounts for their children or elderly relatives.

Incentivizing employers to provide childcare at the workplace.

Provide 6 weeks of paid leave to new mothers before returning to work.

The Trump Plan will lower the business tax rate from 35 percent to 15 percent, and eliminate the corporate alternative minimum tax. This rate is available to all businesses, both small and large, that want to retain the profits within the business. [Good for US companies, good for the stock market.]

It will provide a deemed repatriation of corporate profits held offshore at a one-time tax rate of 10 percent. [If companies bring cash back the US, a bigly amount will probably go to stock buybacks, good for your stache.]

Immediately add an additional federal investment of $20 billion towards school choice. This will be done by reprioritizing existing federal dollars [Would make it possible for people to live in lower cost areas with "bad schools" by having vouchers for private school or even home schooling]

The lower taxes and higher tax expenditures (child care deductions, increased HSAs, etc.) will have a short term positive impact on equities but unless they are coupled with spending cuts (which they're not, based on Trump's infrastructure and military plans), our deficit will soar. Nonpartisan estimate say that our deficit will increase 6.5 trillion in the next 10 years under Trump's tax plan. US debt is already at very high, but not catastrophic, levels. I worry that loading up on government debt to unsustainable levels will be bad for FIRE long term.

[boarder42]

6.5T over 10 years is less than obama racked up in 8.

[FINate]

The lower taxes and higher tax expenditures (child care deductions, increased HSAs, etc.) will have a short term positive impact on equities but unless they are coupled with spending cuts (which they're not, based on Trump's infrastructure and military plans), our deficit will soar. Nonpartisan estimate say that our deficit will increase 6.5 trillion in the next 10 years under Trump's tax plan. US debt is already at very high, but not catastrophic, levels. I worry that loading up on government debt to unsustainable levels will be bad for FIRE long term.

I don't disagree. The real problem is the demographic "bulge" as boomers retire and the effects this has on entitlements. A combination of increased payroll taxes, increasing the retirement age, and reduced benefits is required. But this is a third rail issue that no successful candidate will touch with real solutions until our hand is forced.

[wenchsenior]

It is SLIGHTLY possible that the ACA being repealed might result in a better 'version' of it. It was the original conservative reform plan, generally speaking, and I wouldn't be shocked if they repealed it, tweaked it slightly to improve some of the nagging problems currently existing that Congress is far too deadlocked to fix, and then passed a the improved version of it as a COMPLETELY NEW AND AMAZING TRUMPCARE PACKAGE.

Other than that, I'm not sure I see much upside. Maybe tax cuts that might benefit us very very slightly in the short term.

[bacchi]

6.5T over 10 years is less than obama racked up in 8.

And adding even more isn't bad?!? We're talking about Trump's plans, not the soon-to-be former President's.

Actually, using debt to pay for infrastructure probably isn't a bad idea. Using it for more military is a waste.

[boarder42]

6.5T over 10 years is less than obama racked up in 8.

And adding even more isn't bad?!? We're talking about Trump's plans, not the soon-to-be former President's.

Actually, using debt to pay for infrastructure probably isn't a bad idea. Using it for more military is a waste.

i'd agree using it to pay for infrastructure is a fantastic way to spend.  Esp. being an engineer.  Miltary spending is largely a waste.

we really arent in that bad of shape .. there are 5 debt free contries in the world.  and our debt to GDP ratio is much lower than a lot of the top nations in the world.  borrowing money right now is dirt cheap.

[Abe]

Using the Tax Foundation's calculator, we'd save an extra 5% of our income a year due to decreased federal taxes. The state we're in and the one we're moving to were largely unaffected by the Republican sweep, thus state taxes are unlikely to change much. We both have good employer-sponsored health insurance so won't be affected much by the ACA repeal. Overall not much change on the financial aspect.

http://taxfoundation.org/blog/how-would-trump-and-clinton-tax-plans-affect-your-taxes

[jrhampt]

As a high income household, we should benefit from tax cuts.  This may be offset by cuts to social security and Medicare, though (parents needing increased support, family members of our generation needing more support as they age).  It's hard to say at this point.  Perhaps the stock market rally will be sustained for a time by business friendly policies.  I'm trying to take this as a positive, anyway.  Maybe.  In any case, I'll be taking some of these ill-gotten gains and redirecting them to nonprofits with causes threatened by this presidency.

[Metric Mouse]

The lower taxes and higher tax expenditures (child care deductions, increased HSAs, etc.) will have a short term positive impact on equities but unless they are coupled with spending cuts (which they're not, based on Trump's infrastructure and military plans), our deficit will soar. Nonpartisan estimate say that our deficit will increase 6.5 trillion in the next 10 years under Trump's tax plan. US debt is already at very high, but not catastrophic, levels. I worry that loading up on government debt to unsustainable levels will be bad for FIRE long term.

I don't disagree. The real problem is the demographic "bulge" as boomers retire and the effects this has on entitlements. A combination of increased payroll taxes, increasing the retirement age, and reduced benefits is required. But this is a third rail issue that no successful candidate will touch with real solutions until our hand is forced.

Interesting how this is actually being addressed! http://samjohnson.house.gov/uploadedfiles/sj_ss_reform_packet_december_2016.pdf

Not to say this is the only way to solve all the issues, but at least a candidate is taking it seriously.

[sol]

I'm a rich straight white male.  I'm pretty well insulated from most of the discriminatory and unAmerican policies he has proposed.

On the financial front, there is a nonzero chance my job will be eliminated as a result of political bickering.  As long as they offer early retirement packages (immediate pension eligibility) this would be a huge win for us.

[Scandium]

I'm a rich straight white male.  I'm pretty well insulated from most of the discriminatory and unAmerican policies he has proposed.

Same. Trump/R-congress will fuck the future and poor people to (further) enrich people like us in the present.  I guess that's a positive, though hard to get particularly excited about it..

[OurTown]

I'm a rich straight white male.  I'm pretty well insulated from most of the discriminatory and unAmerican policies he has proposed.

Same. Trump/R-congress will fuck the future and poor people to (further) enrich people like us in the present.  I guess that's a positive, though hard to get particularly excited about it..

Same for me.  I figure we should net maybe 2k per year in tax savings.  In the meantime, America descends into madness.

[FINate]

The lower taxes and higher tax expenditures (child care deductions, increased HSAs, etc.) will have a short term positive impact on equities but unless they are coupled with spending cuts (which they're not, based on Trump's infrastructure and military plans), our deficit will soar. Nonpartisan estimate say that our deficit will increase 6.5 trillion in the next 10 years under Trump's tax plan. US debt is already at very high, but not catastrophic, levels. I worry that loading up on government debt to unsustainable levels will be bad for FIRE long term.

I don't disagree. The real problem is the demographic "bulge" as boomers retire and the effects this has on entitlements. A combination of increased payroll taxes, increasing the retirement age, and reduced benefits is required. But this is a third rail issue that no successful candidate will touch with real solutions until our hand is forced.

Interesting how this is actually being addressed! http://samjohnson.house.gov/uploadedfiles/sj_ss_reform_packet_december_2016.pdf

Not to say this is the only way to solve all the issues, but at least a candidate is taking it seriously.

Interesting, thanks for the link. It's very early in the process so we'll see how it all comes out on the other side of the sausage maker, if it gets that far.

[RosieTR]

I suppose I could come up with a few tiny little personal things that would be positives:
-cray-cray activists are going to be busy with far more important people than myself to harass (my job has a small amount of exposure to certain activists)
-I might forgo a DNA test to figure out my ancestry in the interest of not having any record of that, saving about $100
-if SHTF bigtime, some time spent in the past watching shows such as Doomsday Preppers might reveal itself as not a complete waste
-I don't have kids. Serious positive on a variety of levels but especially so that I won't be explaining this shit to them 10 or 20 years down the road.
-My mom is somewhat more open to giving money to charity/political organizations for Christmas than insisting that we all need an actual gift (so the money will go toward something good while I don't have stupid crap to store or lie about giving away).

I found myself caring somewhat less about FIRE as a side effect of mild depression, which made me more relaxed about spending and doing the bills.

[jim555]

Since my free medical is gone at least I can do Roth conversions and not have to worry about subsidies.
Higher interest rates are good for some, massive deficit spending ahead.
Corporate tax cuts should help equities.
Possible lower taxes depending on where you fall in the brackets.
For the really rich (over $200,000 income) the ACA repeal will remove the Medicare surtax of 3.8%.  The real reason why the ACA must go, the .1% need a tax break.

[Paul der Krake]

I'm a rich straight white male.  I'm pretty well insulated from most of the discriminatory and unAmerican policies he has proposed.

Same. Trump/R-congress will fuck the future and poor people to (further) enrich people like us in the present.  I guess that's a positive, though hard to get particularly excited about it..

Same for me.  I figure we should net maybe 2k per year in tax savings.  In the meantime, America descends into madness.

Aye, me too. Maybe we should start a lobbying group or a charity or something.

[gimp]

My occupation is pretty well insulated from any effect of a Trump presidency.  I hope he does everything he says he wants to do and burns the place down.  Maybe in the ashes, the fever will break and we can actually work to rebuild the country.  Doubtful it will go that way but we'll see.

So basically fuck everyone else, burn it all down, since you might have a fireproof suit.

[Johnez]

Trump seems to be more protectionist and American focused as opposed to worrying about the rest of the world.  I think this is a good thing.  For too long, the US has been the only super power.  I think that if Trump makes us more inward focused, then other countries with their ideas and ideals can rise.  There's the possibility for a lot of good for the world overall.  For Americans, not so much.

Even for Americans this is good. America thrives on competition. With a competent leader at the helm....

[RangerOne]

Just wanted to address some of the points made for possibly positive.

I wouldn't jump the gun on him being more protectionist and less interventionist. He still has traditional Republicans to contend with and his cabinet has many of those as well as generals who are all for intervention. The truth is America is so influential that even completely ignoring other countries has major global implications. I will reserve judgement on foreign policy until we see a few years but I see no reason to expect anything good. Trade sour relations with Russia for China maybe...

Most liberals hate the idea of school vouchers and trying to divert money from public schools. I honestly don't know enough of the situation to formulate a full opinion. Most public schools seem to get the vast majority of their funding locally so those should be fine. If the gov gave me a voucher for private school Id happily consider that option. Though it can be hard to find a secular private school, most of the top rated ones are religious. I think there are still a few good ones in San Diego. The recent Federal education mandates from Bush and Obama have been mixed bags and mostly done harm to San Diego public schools with bullshit requirements so there is that.

His tax plan as it is now will save most of us I assume a trivial amount of money. $2k-$5k a year assuming no kids. You have to be making well over $400k  a year household to see the real benefits of the removal of all tax brackets above 33%. Everything below that line is honestly kind of a wash. I encourage everyone to run the numbers and see how underwhelming these changes are. I would be far more impressed if anyone ever let him pass his original plan with a top tax brackets of 0/10/20/25% with much higher cutoffs, now that was a middle class tax break. I am not sure if lower corp tax will effect much in the long term or if it will just become the new norm and the wage gap will grow between the 0.1% and the rest of us. I am sure it will spur some additional investment but eventually in the ongoing struggle to improve share prices year over year the employee budget always seems to get squeezed.

He will be shit on the environment. I could tolerate someone arguing whether the Paris climate accords are too far, but full denial is something I hope they step away from. I guess that is being left to his daughter?

On that last point I think my biggest glimmer of hope is that Trumps family are a lot more normal and progressive than he is, though certainly still rich and not with conflicts of interest. I hope he leans heavily on people like his daughter Ivanka over blow hards in the Repub party and sycophants.

Possible dark clouds are obvious. A Muslim registry and or Muslim immigration ban could signal more sinister period of American politics. Could also spill over into other immigrant hate.

[sol]

With a competent leader at the helm....

Do you mean to say that America will thrive again after Trump leaves office, or did you mean to suggest that Trump is a competent leader?

I ask because his record of leadership is a little spotty.  http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/donald-trumps-13-biggest-business-failures-20160314

[Metric Mouse]

With a competent leader at the helm....

Do you mean to say that America will thrive again after Trump leaves office, or did you mean to suggest that Trump is a competent leader?

I ask because his record of leadership is a little spotty.  http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/donald-trumps-13-biggest-business-failures-20160314

I think the comment was that America thrives on competition, assuming a competent leader.  I didn't read this as endorsing Trump as a competent leader, and as his polices are more protectionist anyway, it would be immaterial if he were or not.

[ysette9]

I pulled up a website estimating changes to our ordinal tax situation if the T tax plan were actually put into effect. It looks like we would save quite a bit ($12k). I suppose that is a positive for us on a micro scale. The positive that has come out of all of this mess is that I was pushed to dig into it and learn that I can register as a British citizen. That means that if ACA is repealed and there is no guarantee of being able to buy health insurance (never mind if it is affordable or not) then we have an out as a family. It would likely cost more to live in the U.K. than the US, but FIRE is impossible if we can't be guaranteed to have health insurance when we need it.

[jim555]

I pulled up a website estimating changes to our ordinal tax situation if the T tax plan were actually put into effect. It looks like we would save quite a bit ($12k). I suppose that is a positive for us on a micro scale. The positive that has come out of all of this mess is that I was pushed to dig into it and learn that I can register as a British citizen. That means that if ACA is repealed and there is no guarantee of being able to buy health insurance (never mind if it is affordable or not) then we have an out as a family. It would likely cost more to live in the U.K. than the US, but FIRE is impossible if we can't be guaranteed to have health insurance when we need it.

I have pre-existing conditions and the whole uninsurable thing is making me loose sleep.  Either I go back to work or escape to the UK until 65 as a last resort.

[ysette9]

Escaping to the U.K. is looking more and more attractive, despite their own ugliness coming out post Brexit. Perhaps it is just because I don't live here, but it seems like their ugliness isn't a match for our ugliness. I do have a young, half-non-white daughter to raise and all...

[Metric Mouse]

Is the UK easier to get into than Canada? It just seems that Canada would be preferable.

[ysette9]

In my personal case it is easier because my mother was born in England, so I can register as a citizen by virtue of being born to her. My own family can come along for the ride and get permant residency fairly easily, if I can believe the government's website. I haven't pulled the trigger on any of this yet because my job requires me to hold a security clearance, and I have yet to assess whether I can keep a clearance while having dual citizenship. My tentative plan now is to pursue citizenship once I reach my FIRE number.

I hear that New Zealand is fairly easy to emigrate to if you are a skilled/educated worker.

[jim555]

UK is not easy to get into at all.  Expensive and very bureaucratic.  Even for non-Brit spouses of Brits to come over a lot of hoops and very expensive.  They have clamped down a lot in the last few years.  I got it by descent which is the easiest method.

[jim555]

In my personal case it is easier because my mother was born in England, so I can register as a citizen by virtue of being born to her.

If you are born 1983 or later you are already a British citizen in the eyes of the UK, no registration needed.

[ysette9]

I think you were the one who put me on to this in an earlier thread, Jim555: I was born in 1982 so I have to go through slightly more hoops than my younger sister who was born in 1984 (and has her UK passport). I read the info packets cover-to-cover though and it seems pretty straight-forward. Even the application fee wasn't too bad, <£100 if I remember correctly.

What do you know about the non-British spouse/dependents of a British citizen? I can't find the specific part of the website right now, but I remember looking at it before and it being described as relatively simple.

[jim555]

Escaping to the U.K. is looking more and more attractive, despite their own ugliness coming out post Brexit. Perhaps it is just because I don't live here, but it seems like their ugliness isn't a match for our ugliness. I do have a young, half-non-white daughter to raise and all...

I currently use the VA for medical care but if that changes and I don't qualify for affordable medical coverage because of preexisting conditions I'll be joining ya all in.the UK since I'm a dual citizen because I was born.there before 1984.  I've always loved the place so no hardship for me. My Moms German -American so maybe I can live there too. Although I do wonder if dual citizens who were not born in the USA might have anything to worry about. Deported to the UK . Oh.the Horror!

At least you didn't need to take an oath and pledge to the queen like I did to get the registration certificate.  I will really be deported.

[accolay]

Trump seems to be more protectionist and American focused as opposed to worrying about the rest of the world.  I think this is a good thing.  For too long, the US has been the only super power.  I think that if Trump makes us more inward focused, then other countries with their ideas and ideals can rise.  There's the possibility for a lot of good for the world overall.  For Americans, not so much.

I dunno. Didn't work out well for us prior to WWII. Seeing a rise of the far right in Europe doesn't make me feel real good either.

Edit to clarify that I don't want to be the world police. But I think we need to find a better balance.

[Metric Mouse]

Deported to the UK . Oh.the Horror!

Well, the weather is sometimes pretty crappy... so there's that.