Poll

Who do you think will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

Donald Trump
68 (35.1%)
Joe Biden
112 (57.7%)
3rd-Party Candidate or Black Swan Event (e.g., Trump or Biden dies)
14 (7.2%)

Total Members Voted: 194

Author Topic: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?  (Read 9780 times)

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #200 on: June 29, 2020, 07:44:04 PM »
So for example brining in an Indian doctor to practice medicine in a rural area is great for the US. It is helpful But it does nothing to advance us. Nothing.

It's tough to find doctors who want to run a rural practice. Much of this actually stems from our education system. Graduating doctors are routinely riddled with 6 figure student loan debt. This actually discourages becoming a PCP in rural areas and encourages moving into more specialized medicine because of the pay discrepancy. So it actually does help to "advance us." It sure would be nice if we could find a way to reduce the cost of education. But you know, socialism and all.

Yes it is tough to find doctors. Why? Fix it is my point.

You like being dependent on other countries ? How’s that working out with the pandemic ? China hoarded supplies when they found out and our drugs supply is contingent on them. Why are people so attracted to being dependent on other countries.  What’s the allure ?

Socialism ? Huh ? I don’t get your reference
Actually I don't see people based on nationality. I just see people. I don't really care what country the doctors come from as long as everyone is receiving affordable quality care. If you want to "fix it" then start by making education cheaper. The socialism reference was because folks think reducing the cost of education is socialism.   

You won’t see me claiming socialism for lowering college costs. I think that deserves it one thread. I would say throwing money at it hasn’t worked. Someone just mentioned foreign students getting a full ride... is that driving up college costs? I don’t have a great answer here.

No.  The assumption that we have been “throwing money at [higher education]” isn’t true.  One of the leading drivers for why undergraduate college tuition has been going up much faster than inflation stems from the fact that we are funding it less even as more students attend.  A big shift occurred (by necessity) after the Great Recession when state budgets were forced to curtail direct support of their college systems.  ARound the same time “challenge/merit-based grants became de vogue for federal funding of higher education, which is great for those labs that get the grants but makes it harder for universities in general.  To compensate the universities went to the most reliable source of income they had - undergraduate tuitions - and increased them. 
At the same time college enrollment has swelled.  While that might seem like a great solution - more students = more tuition, it not quite that simple, as students *cost* a great deal, and often tuition isn’t enough to cover the overhead.

In any event, this has diverted into a subject that’s very close to my working life, but is also getting very far from the OP.

Suffice to say my firm opinion is that we need more highly skilled workers, not fewer. More H1B visas.  Earlier you mentioned that the H1B is “a symptom that something is wrong”. I believe this is the wrong way to look at it.  Even if a country had a ‘perfect’ system (which of course no one has) it would still be beneficial to attract highly skilled foreign workers.  IN other words, the H1B should exist regardless of other problems.

That said, we have a lot of challenges with our K-12 educational system, to the point where we’re outranked by numerous countries far less wealthy than our own. To that end I also have issues with our current administration’s approach of siphoning off resources.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #201 on: June 29, 2020, 11:40:04 PM »
Well, 66.1% of US high school graduates are enrolled in college.


https://www.bls.gov/news.release/hsgec.nr0.htm

You can have a cheap education for a few people, or an expensive education for a lot of people. In the West we've chosen the latter. It's not clear this is necessarily the best choice, but it's what we've chosen.
« Last Edit: June 30, 2020, 08:46:10 AM by Kyle Schuant »

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #202 on: June 30, 2020, 07:57:33 AM »
Idunno though, I recall when I applied to graduate school (decades ago, but AFAIK it's the same or worse) that I was competing against mostly international students. And I was fortunate to get accepted into a highly competitive program at a top university, but when the school year started, I noted I was in the "minority" as a US citizen. Most of the people admitted were from foreign countries. And it's the same at many of the top US universities.

I see that as a problem in many ways:
  • Every slot given to an international students in a top academic program is a slot for which a US citizen will be turned away
  • A large portion of the international students will not remain in the US; they receive their education, and go back to their home country
  • International students are often given preferential enrollment, because they will generally be paying top dollar compared to a US citizen who may be paying in-state tuition at a public university, or they will be denied any kind of financial aid and thus pay full freight compared to a need-based US student

Any stats on this?

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #203 on: June 30, 2020, 08:35:49 AM »
Idunno though, I recall when I applied to graduate school (decades ago, but AFAIK it's the same or worse) that I was competing against mostly international students. And I was fortunate to get accepted into a highly competitive program at a top university, but when the school year started, I noted I was in the "minority" as a US citizen. Most of the people admitted were from foreign countries. And it's the same at many of the top US universities.

I see that as a problem in many ways:
  • Every slot given to an international students in a top academic program is a slot for which a US citizen will be turned away
  • A large portion of the international students will not remain in the US; they receive their education, and go back to their home country
  • International students are often given preferential enrollment, because they will generally be paying top dollar compared to a US citizen who may be paying in-state tuition at a public university, or they will be denied any kind of financial aid and thus pay full freight compared to a need-based US student

Any stats on this?

Lots.  The big question here is whether we are talking about undergraduate students, PhD candidates or Post-Doc / research fellows.
Crucially, and as we are discussing H-1B visas specifically, they are limited to 5 years. This most recent administration has inexplicably created further barriers for individuals here on H-1B visas and applying ofr permanent residence, though in the past the number of post-doctoral students who remained in the US was just over 50% IIRC.  Also important to note that once you get to teh post-doc level there's an overall benefit even if the individual returns home after their visa expires; post-docs do a large portion of the actual R&D on any given project.

As ctuster1 exaplaned, it's incorrect to say that international students are given preferential enrollment because they will generally be paying top dollar.  For most graduate-level and Post-doc positions withint he STEM fields the position is funded through a specific grant and the selection is made by the PI (typically a professor), not a university selection committee.  Most institutions recognize that within-grant funding is largely fixed and have exemptions for charging more to foreign students working on an RA.  Most often the project is so specific that there's only a handful of candidates, and the PI doesn't give a hoot about where the person comes from, only whether s/he is up to the task.  I've never heard of one caring about tuition rates because that's immaterial to them.

There is some merit to saying "every spot given to a foreign student is one not given to a US citizen", but the limiting factor is almost always funding, not space. An R-1 institution will take on as many HQ as it can get funding for, and departments wax and wane with grant cycles.  This is very different from undergraduate enrollment where there's typically a fixed class size (e.g. University of MMM accepts 2400 students each year...). Universities want to take on as many PhD and post-docs as they can because  - unliek undergradutes - they often come with thier onw grant funding and require far less resources and generally make the university a profit and almost always increase the R-1 "score" of the unversity itself.  During my previous post-doc our institution had a low of 7 post-docs to a high of 19 in the span of 2 years.

Wolfpack Mustachian

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #204 on: June 30, 2020, 09:07:12 AM »
Idunno though, I recall when I applied to graduate school (decades ago, but AFAIK it's the same or worse) that I was competing against mostly international students. And I was fortunate to get accepted into a highly competitive program at a top university, but when the school year started, I noted I was in the "minority" as a US citizen. Most of the people admitted were from foreign countries. And it's the same at many of the top US universities.

I see that as a problem in many ways:
  • Every slot given to an international students in a top academic program is a slot for which a US citizen will be turned away
  • A large portion of the international students will not remain in the US; they receive their education, and go back to their home country
  • International students are often given preferential enrollment, because they will generally be paying top dollar compared to a US citizen who may be paying in-state tuition at a public university, or they will be denied any kind of financial aid and thus pay full freight compared to a need-based US student

Any stats on this?

Lots.  The big question here is whether we are talking about undergraduate students, PhD candidates or Post-Doc / research fellows.
Crucially, and as we are discussing H-1B visas specifically, they are limited to 5 years. This most recent administration has inexplicably created further barriers for individuals here on H-1B visas and applying ofr permanent residence, though in the past the number of post-doctoral students who remained in the US was just over 50% IIRC.  Also important to note that once you get to teh post-doc level there's an overall benefit even if the individual returns home after their visa expires; post-docs do a large portion of the actual R&D on any given project.

As ctuster1 exaplaned, it's incorrect to say that international students are given preferential enrollment because they will generally be paying top dollar.  For most graduate-level and Post-doc positions withint he STEM fields the position is funded through a specific grant and the selection is made by the PI (typically a professor), not a university selection committee.  Most institutions recognize that within-grant funding is largely fixed and have exemptions for charging more to foreign students working on an RA.  Most often the project is so specific that there's only a handful of candidates, and the PI doesn't give a hoot about where the person comes from, only whether s/he is up to the task.  I've never heard of one caring about tuition rates because that's immaterial to them.

There is some merit to saying "every spot given to a foreign student is one not given to a US citizen", but the limiting factor is almost always funding, not space. An R-1 institution will take on as many HQ as it can get funding for, and departments wax and wane with grant cycles.  This is very different from undergraduate enrollment where there's typically a fixed class size (e.g. University of MMM accepts 2400 students each year...). Universities want to take on as many PhD and post-docs as they can because  - unliek undergradutes - they often come with thier onw grant funding and require far less resources and generally make the university a profit and almost always increase the R-1 "score" of the unversity itself.  During my previous post-doc our institution had a low of 7 post-docs to a high of 19 in the span of 2 years.

This is asinine. Why on earth would you use the resources to educate really smart people and then not want them to stay around? I was thinking it was a knock against having people come here if they were all leaving on their own accord after we've educated them (although the point of the work they do while they're here hadn't come to mind until you mentioned it). This is so ridiculous.

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #205 on: June 30, 2020, 09:36:40 AM »
^Agreed.  IMO individuals here on H-1B visas should have a near-automatic pathway towards permanent residence provided they didn't commit any crimes or similar. This is the way that it works with the equivalent visas in many other countries (e.g. Canada and the UK). 

talltexan

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #206 on: June 30, 2020, 12:15:55 PM »

I see that as a problem in many ways:
  • Every slot given to an international students in a top academic program is a slot for which a US citizen will be turned away
  • A large portion of the international students will not remain in the US; they receive their education, and go back to their home country
  • International students are often given preferential enrollment, because they will generally be paying top dollar compared to a US citizen who may be paying in-state tuition at a public university, or they will be denied any kind of financial aid and thus pay full freight compared to a need-based US student

The third one of these helps compensate us for the drain of the first two.

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #207 on: June 30, 2020, 12:35:16 PM »

I see that as a problem in many ways:
  • Every slot given to an international students in a top academic program is a slot for which a US citizen will be turned away
  • A large portion of the international students will not remain in the US; they receive their education, and go back to their home country
  • International students are often given preferential enrollment, because they will generally be paying top dollar compared to a US citizen who may be paying in-state tuition at a public university, or they will be denied any kind of financial aid and thus pay full freight compared to a need-based US student

The third one of these helps compensate us for the drain of the first two.

Except the third isn't true, and the second is a relatively small proportion under all previous administrations (detailed above in earlier posts).

DoubleDown

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #208 on: June 30, 2020, 02:42:50 PM »
I'd argue there are absolutely cases where international students are given preferential admission* on the economic basis. And unquestionably some students voluntarily complete their education in the U.S. and return home. Heck, some are even sponsored by their home countries to go study abroad with the express purpose of returning to apply their new knowledge. China, India, Saudi Arabia, Iran have all been well-known to send students for studies abroad so they can return and work for their own governments or state-run industries.

I'm not saying any of this to defend Trump's xenophobic immigration policies. I'm just saying the U.S. has long accepted wealthy students from abroad, and it can be to the detriment of its own citizenry in some instances.

*Just use public universities as one example: An "in-state" student will pay, say $20,000 in tuition, whereas an out-of-state student will pay $50,000 in tuition. It's not a difficult choice for the school to make to accept the out-of-state student when comparing two comparable applicants. This is true for students from within the U.S. (but from different states), and for those coming from abroad.

BicycleB

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #209 on: June 30, 2020, 02:57:53 PM »
If I read upthread correctly, the only comment from a person directly acquainted with admissions stated finances had nothing to do with it in their limited experience. I can understand the logic that a self-interested institution COULD be tempted to give preferential admissions to high paying foreign students, but is there credible evidence or reporting that it does happen? If so, is it related to elite institutions with highly competitive admissions, or primarily institutions with more open enrollment systems?

If the latter, our citizens are not being harmed, they're being helped. Instead of students losing spots, professors and administrators are keeping jobs. That benefits the US. The tuition paid is an ongoing economic stimulus to our ecnonomy. In addition, our students are being presented with diversity from across the world without spending their own money on travel.

The article below states that 62% of foreign students get the majority of their funds from abroad. It quotes the US Dept of Commerce as saying that foreign students contributed $45 Billion to the US economy in 2018. (If a Trump agency says we benefit from foreign students, we probably do!).  There's also link to a NAFSA website that states international students supported 458,000 jobs in the US during the 2018-19 school year.

https://www.iie.org/Research-and-Insights/Open-Doors/Data/Economic-Impact-of-International-Students#:~:text=The%20continued%20growth%20in%20international,the%20U.S.%20Department%20of%20Commerce
« Last Edit: June 30, 2020, 02:59:54 PM by BicycleB »

Kris

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #210 on: June 30, 2020, 03:01:10 PM »
If I read upthread correctly, the only comment from a person directly acquainted with admissions stated finances had nothing to do with it in their limited experience. I can understand the logic that a self-interested institution COULD be tempted to give preferential admissions to high paying foreign students, but is there credible evidence or reporting that it does happen? If so, is it related to elite institutions with highly competitive admissions, or primarily institutions with more open enrollment systems?

If the latter, our citizens are not being harmed, they're being helped. Instead of students losing spots, professors and administrators are keeping jobs. That benefits the US. The tuition paid is an ongoing economic stimulus to our ecnonomy. In addition, our students are being presented with diversity from across the world without spending their own money on travel.

The article below states that 62% of foreign students get the majority of their funds from abroad. It quotes the US Dept of Commerce as saying that foreign students contributed $45 Billion to the US economy in 2018. (If a Trump agency says we benefit from foreign students, we probably do!).  There's also link to a NAFSA website that states international students supported 458,000 jobs in the US during the 2018-19 school year.

https://www.iie.org/Research-and-Insights/Open-Doors/Data/Economic-Impact-of-International-Students#:~:text=The%20continued%20growth%20in%20international,the%20U.S.%20Department%20of%20Commerce

As a former professor and department chair at a second-tier institution with a more open enrollment system, I concur.

Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #211 on: June 30, 2020, 03:24:52 PM »


*Just use public universities as one example: An "in-state" student will pay, say $20,000 in tuition, whereas an out-of-state student will pay $50,000 in tuition. It's not a difficult choice for the school to make to accept the out-of-state student when comparing two comparable applicants. This is true for students from within the U.S. (but from different states), and for those coming from abroad.

In my experience with the system in Texas, in-state tuition at a public university is about 1/5 that of out of state.  But the University receives exactly the same revenue.  The difference is a transfer payment from the state to the University.  There is thus no economic benefit to accepting out of state enrollees.

nereo

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #212 on: June 30, 2020, 03:59:19 PM »
I'd argue there are absolutely cases where international students are given preferential admission* on the economic basis. And unquestionably some students voluntarily complete their education in the U.S. and return home. Heck, some are even sponsored by their home countries to go study abroad with the express purpose of returning to apply their new knowledge. China, India, Saudi Arabia, Iran have all been well-known to send students for studies abroad so they can return and work for their own governments or state-run industries.

I'm not saying any of this to defend Trump's xenophobic immigration policies. I'm just saying the U.S. has long accepted wealthy students from abroad, and it can be to the detriment of its own citizenry in some instances.

*Just use public universities as one example: An "in-state" student will pay, say $20,000 in tuition, whereas an out-of-state student will pay $50,000 in tuition. It's not a difficult choice for the school to make to accept the out-of-state student when comparing two comparable applicants. This is true for students from within the U.S. (but from different states), and for those coming from abroad.

Careful, you are conflating undergraduate education (which is not typically part of the H1-B visas and the focus of this discussion) with doctoral post-doctoral positions.

BicycleB

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #213 on: June 30, 2020, 04:45:29 PM »


*Just use public universities as one example: An "in-state" student will pay, say $20,000 in tuition, whereas an out-of-state student will pay $50,000 in tuition. It's not a difficult choice for the school to make to accept the out-of-state student when comparing two comparable applicants. This is true for students from within the U.S. (but from different states), and for those coming from abroad.

In my experience with the system in Texas, in-state tuition at a public university is about 1/5 that of out of state.  But the University receives exactly the same revenue.  The difference is a transfer payment from the state to the University.  There is thus no economic benefit to accepting out of state enrollees.

What is this transfer you speak of?

Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #214 on: July 01, 2020, 12:16:59 PM »


*Just use public universities as one example: An "in-state" student will pay, say $20,000 in tuition, whereas an out-of-state student will pay $50,000 in tuition. It's not a difficult choice for the school to make to accept the out-of-state student when comparing two comparable applicants. This is true for students from within the U.S. (but from different states), and for those coming from abroad.

In my experience with the system in Texas, in-state tuition at a public university is about 1/5 that of out of state.  But the University receives exactly the same revenue.  The difference is a transfer payment from the state to the University.  There is thus no economic benefit to accepting out of state enrollees.

What is this transfer you speak of?

If out of state tuition is 5,000 and in-state is 1,000, the state cuts the university a check for the 4,000 difference on in-state students.  It is revenue neutral to the uni.

talltexan

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #215 on: July 02, 2020, 12:14:08 PM »
Many private universities--I have the University of Chicago in mind, but true for many--that state subsidy is not a factor, and the subsidies are from more internal revenue sources.

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #216 on: July 02, 2020, 12:32:33 PM »
What's the over/under on Trump dropping out? Ha!

talltexan

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #217 on: July 02, 2020, 12:43:01 PM »
Couldn't imagine him dropping out. The best synthesis of the data I can see is that he's behind. He can still win. Many incumbents trail at some point.

But the value of winning--if he can--is so alluring, the idea that he could join seventeen other of our elite Presidents for having won two terms, what other thing could he possibly make or earn with his time left on earth that could compare? Especially given that there are so many co-conspirators who want to use their own power to bring this election home because they want a Republican President at literally any cost.

BicycleB

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #218 on: July 02, 2020, 03:48:34 PM »


*Just use public universities as one example: An "in-state" student will pay, say $20,000 in tuition, whereas an out-of-state student will pay $50,000 in tuition. It's not a difficult choice for the school to make to accept the out-of-state student when comparing two comparable applicants. This is true for students from within the U.S. (but from different states), and for those coming from abroad.

In my experience with the system in Texas, in-state tuition at a public university is about 1/5 that of out of state.  But the University receives exactly the same revenue.  The difference is a transfer payment from the state to the University.  There is thus no economic benefit to accepting out of state enrollees.

What is this transfer you speak of?

If out of state tuition is 5,000 and in-state is 1,000, the state cuts the university a check for the 4,000 difference on in-state students.  It is revenue neutral to the uni.

Thanks. Didn't know that at all.

Kris

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #219 on: July 04, 2020, 08:16:51 PM »
Who had “Kanye West runs for president” on their 2020 bingo card? :eye roll:

https://www.kron4.com/news/national/kanye-west-says-hes-running-for-president-elon-musk-supports/

Wolfpack Mustachian

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #220 on: July 05, 2020, 11:55:12 AM »
Who had “Kanye West runs for president” on their 2020 bingo card? :eye roll:

https://www.kron4.com/news/national/kanye-west-says-hes-running-for-president-elon-musk-supports/

I mean, if Elon supports him, who am I to disagree?

FIRE Artist

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #221 on: July 05, 2020, 08:16:42 PM »
Who had “Kanye West runs for president” on their 2020 bingo card? :eye roll:

https://www.kron4.com/news/national/kanye-west-says-hes-running-for-president-elon-musk-supports/

Since he has been a trump supporter it sounds like a great way to take votes from Biden, thereby securing a second term for trump.

js82

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #222 on: July 06, 2020, 04:51:35 AM »
Who had “Kanye West runs for president” on their 2020 bingo card? :eye roll:

https://www.kron4.com/news/national/kanye-west-says-hes-running-for-president-elon-musk-supports/

Since he has been a trump supporter it sounds like a great way to take votes from Biden, thereby securing a second term for trump.

The cynic in me says that Kanye "running for president" is either:

A) Reflective of his previously-professed support of Trump, and exactly what you described - an attempt to pull minority/youth votes away from Biden.

or

B) Kanye being Kanye - doing attention-grabbing stunts to generate publicity for himself in order to build hype for his next album.


Or it could be C) Both of the above.  Kanye isn't stupid.  He knows exactly what he's doing.

Kris

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #223 on: July 06, 2020, 05:51:16 AM »
Who had “Kanye West runs for president” on their 2020 bingo card? :eye roll:

https://www.kron4.com/news/national/kanye-west-says-hes-running-for-president-elon-musk-supports/

Since he has been a trump supporter it sounds like a great way to take votes from Biden, thereby securing a second term for trump.

The cynic in me says that Kanye "running for president" is either:

A) Reflective of his previously-professed support of Trump, and exactly what you described - an attempt to pull minority/youth votes away from Biden.

or

B) Kanye being Kanye - doing attention-grabbing stunts to generate publicity for himself in order to build hype for his next album.


Or it could be C) Both of the above.  Kanye isn't stupid.  He knows exactly what he's doing.

Yep.

More three-ring circus. It all makes my stomach churn.

talltexan

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #224 on: July 06, 2020, 06:27:37 AM »
So...none of you think that Kanye might actually win?

sherr

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #225 on: July 06, 2020, 07:16:59 AM »
Kanye isn't stupid.  He knows exactly what he's doing.

Kanye is bipolar, and at least has a history of not taking his meds.

As much as the "he's trying to steal Biden votes" theory is attractive at first blush, it doesn't stand up to scrutiny. He won't be on the ballot in any state. There's no way that he'd receive enough write-ins, especially in this election, to alter the outcome. He's just going through a manic episode, and potentially also trying to gain free publicity for his next album.

Kris

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #226 on: July 06, 2020, 07:29:51 AM »
Kanye isn't stupid.  He knows exactly what he's doing.

Kanye is bipolar, and at least has a history of not taking his meds.

As much as the "he's trying to steal Biden votes" theory is attractive at first blush, it doesn't stand up to scrutiny. He won't be on the ballot in any state. There's no way that he'd receive enough write-ins, especially in this election, to alter the outcome. He's just going through a manic episode, and potentially also trying to gain free publicity for his next album.


He can still get on the ballot in most states if he hustles. Depends on how long this particular manic state of his lasts, I imagine. He can do real damage.

GuitarStv

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #227 on: July 06, 2020, 08:23:23 AM »
So...none of you think that Kanye might actually win?

Before becoming the president, Donald Trump was an old money bigoted failed businessman with no experience or qualifications to be good at the job of president.  And he was elected.  So . . . yeah.  Why the hell not?  Kanye 2020.

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #228 on: July 06, 2020, 09:14:29 AM »
I don't plan to vote for him, but I believe Trump is better at exploiting chaos than almost anyone in politics. This Kanye thing will help him, even if it's not what Kanye thinks will happen.

sherr

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #229 on: July 06, 2020, 09:18:03 AM »
I don't plan to vote for him, but I believe Trump is better at exploiting chaos than almost anyone in politics. This Kanye thing will help him, even if it's not what Kanye thinks will happen.

It will not help him because this is a non-event. This whole thing will be completely forgotten by the end of the week, if not earlier.

wenchsenior

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #230 on: July 06, 2020, 10:58:37 AM »
I don't plan to vote for him, but I believe Trump is better at exploiting chaos than almost anyone in politics. This Kanye thing will help him, even if it's not what Kanye thinks will happen.

It will not help him because this is a non-event. This whole thing will be completely forgotten by the end of the week, if not earlier.

I'd give it a couple weeks, but I agree.  He can't get ON the ballot in 6 states (including TX and NY) and the deadline for getting on the ballot is this month in a bunch more (including CO, FL, and MI).  I highly doubt he's organized enough to get on enough state ballots to matter that much.

But let's say he does.  Will he really pull that many votes from Biden?  He's more likely to turn out young voters, especially young black men, who normally stay home.  Those people probably wouldn't be voting this election in a normal year, so if he turns out a Kanye vote, it won't matter. Also, if he DOES by some chance manage to mobilize a disaffected slice of young people, at least they'll be registered to vote going forward, and probably less likely to vote Republican if they vote in other elections.

talltexan

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #231 on: July 06, 2020, 12:31:52 PM »
It's about states, not total. Getting on the ballot in NY or TX won't swing much, but if he can get on in Florida or Minnesota or Nevada, he could affect the race. Even if he doesn't affect things, a close race will mean one side or the other will point to him as a confounding factor the way Republicans have pointed at Perot for 28 years.

wenchsenior

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #232 on: July 06, 2020, 12:40:35 PM »
It's about states, not total. Getting on the ballot in NY or TX won't swing much, but if he can get on in Florida or Minnesota or Nevada, he could affect the race. Even if he doesn't affect things, a close race will mean one side or the other will point to him as a confounding factor the way Republicans have pointed at Perot for 28 years.

Yes, I'm aware. That's why I specifically noted Colorado and Florida and Michigan (swing states) have deadlines this month.  If he gets on the ballot in those, I'll start taking the threat more seriously. 

But even so, who do you think is going to vote for him?  He's got a mental illness that he doesn't appear to manage that well, and he's divisive all on his own even without his mental illness.  I'm skeptical that he's going to swing a bunch of black women/older black voters (who DO reliably vote) to his corner with so much at stake.  And I'm not sure who else he's likely to get.  Maybe a few super religious libertarian types (one would think that's an oxymoron, but apparently not)?    Certainly he'll attract some younger voters, but they don't reliably vote anyway, and I bet they won't vote for Biden this election anyway.

It's not impossible that he could dramatically affect the outcome, but a lot of weird shit would have to happen, IMO. Of course, we're in the era of weird shit, so :shrug:

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #233 on: July 07, 2020, 07:00:37 PM »
I'm all-in on Kanye--let's all live the American Meme!

But seriously, what is the best way to punish both parties for their terrible performance? Should we go in the full-blown IDW-endorsed direction and go with this? IDW-commandant Brett Weinstein says we should and he understands both the bankruptcy of the Church of SJWs and of the underlying electoral signal behind the Trump phenomenon. The destruction of our "sense-making" institutions are creating a situation where some of the basic tenets of post-enlightenment Western Civilization are under threat through post-modern rot and anti-rational mood-affiliation. Evergreen 2.0.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #234 on: July 07, 2020, 07:50:04 PM »
So...Kanye/Swift 2020?

Tyler durden

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #235 on: July 07, 2020, 08:49:59 PM »
I haven’t read this whole thread so maybe this was mentioned but does anyone think either candidate makes it 4 years.

One is an overweight old man who lives on fast food / hydroxychloroquine / probably adderall and is up all hours Of the night rage tweeting.

The other is an even older man who seems deep into cognitive decline. May physically survive 4 years but not mentally. Then another 4 for re election...

What a shit show.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #236 on: July 07, 2020, 10:56:54 PM »
Medical care in the US has specialised in dealing with elderly obese people and their ailments. It just costs a lot of money.


Now, illnesses of the young, and those who are not obese, it's not so great. And it's awful at preventative care. And of course, if you're poor, well sorry but you're probably fucked.


They will keep Trump and Biden "alive" (in the most generous sense of the term) for long enough to finish their terms. They can rule like the old communist bloc leaders, from their intensive care beds, blinking their instructions to underlings.

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #237 on: July 07, 2020, 11:12:20 PM »
I found it notable that Biden had brain surgery for two aneurysms the year that I was born.  Does anyone even know about this?  He also lost a nomination for a presidential run that year. 

That's how old these farts are. 

I did vote for the 3rd possibility in the poll so Go Kanye, I guess?

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #238 on: July 08, 2020, 04:52:09 AM »
I'm all-in on Kanye--let's all live the American Meme!

But seriously, what is the best way to punish both parties for their terrible performance? Should we go in the full-blown IDW-endorsed direction and go with this? IDW-commandant Brett Weinstein says we should and he understands both the bankruptcy of the Church of SJWs and of the underlying electoral signal behind the Trump phenomenon. The destruction of our "sense-making" institutions are creating a situation where some of the basic tenets of post-enlightenment Western Civilization are under threat through post-modern rot and anti-rational mood-affiliation. Evergreen 2.0.

As a life-long independent and general believer in good governance, I support this in principle.  The trick is selling people(who may be "independent" but not politically neutral) on the idea that this candidate/pair of candidates is viable in the first place so that voting for them wouldn't just be furthering the election of a candidate they REALLY dislike.

I still think it'd take a fracturing of one of the major parties - most likely a left vs. centrist split of the Democratic party - or the Democrats as a whole moving further to the left, to truly open the door to something like this.  I don't think we're far from that point, but I don't believe we're quite there yet.

jim555

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #239 on: July 08, 2020, 05:37:41 AM »
There's no way that he'd receive enough write-ins, ...
How does someone write in a Presidential candidate?  You don't vote for the President you vote for a slate of electors.  In NY you would need to write in 29 names.

GuitarStv

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #240 on: July 08, 2020, 07:21:31 AM »
I haven’t read this whole thread so maybe this was mentioned but does anyone think either candidate makes it 4 years.

One is an overweight old man who lives on fast food / hydroxychloroquine / probably adderall and is up all hours Of the night rage tweeting.

The other is an even older man who seems deep into cognitive decline. May physically survive 4 years but not mentally. Then another 4 for re election...

What a shit show.

Weird.  You don't believe that Trump is 'deep into cognitive decline'?  Have you never listened to the man speak?

Tyler durden

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #241 on: July 08, 2020, 07:29:49 AM »
I haven’t read this whole thread so maybe this was mentioned but does anyone think either candidate makes it 4 years.

One is an overweight old man who lives on fast food / hydroxychloroquine / probably adderall and is up all hours Of the night rage tweeting.

The other is an even older man who seems deep into cognitive decline. May physically survive 4 years but not mentally. Then another 4 for re election...

What a shit show.

Weird.  You don't believe that Trump is 'deep into cognitive decline'?  Have you never listened to the man speak?

No

I watch trump give the Rushmore speech or field questions from reporters and I see the same jerk I’ve seen for the last 4 years.

I see Biden as slipping into dementia. I’ve seen it time and again with clients I work with. Look Biden seems likely to be president - I hope it’s just that  he has just lost a step but I don’t think that’s the case.

sherr

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #242 on: July 08, 2020, 07:35:52 AM »
I'm all-in on Kanye--let's all live the American Meme!

But seriously, what is the best way to punish both parties for their terrible performance? Should we go in the full-blown IDW-endorsed direction and go with this? IDW-commandant Brett Weinstein says we should and he understands both the bankruptcy of the Church of SJWs and of the underlying electoral signal behind the Trump phenomenon. The destruction of our "sense-making" institutions are creating a situation where some of the basic tenets of post-enlightenment Western Civilization are under threat through post-modern rot and anti-rational mood-affiliation. Evergreen 2.0.

As a life-long independent and general believer in good governance, I support this in principle.  The trick is selling people(who may be "independent" but not politically neutral) on the idea that this candidate/pair of candidates is viable in the first place so that voting for them wouldn't just be furthering the election of a candidate they REALLY dislike.

I still think it'd take a fracturing of one of the major parties - most likely a left vs. centrist split of the Democratic party - or the Democrats as a whole moving further to the left, to truly open the door to something like this.  I don't think we're far from that point, but I don't believe we're quite there yet.

I think that a disintegration of one or both parties is a necessary prerequisite before a "unity ticket" could actually win. The game-theory of first-past-the-post winner-take-all elections virtually guarantees that there will be two powerful parties with roughly equal support. Which two parties those are can and has changed in the past, but there will always be two. The "unity ticket party" would have to supplant one, which would require that party to be in serious crumbling disarray first.

The more practical way to make things be more "centrist" is to nudge the two parties in that direction, by voting in the primaries for the more centrist / less crazy candidate, and then voting in the general for the more centrist / less crazy candidate. A huge part of the problem today is that only party loyalists vote in the primaries, which means that often the "not centrist" candidate wins.

I also flat-out reject the notion that both sides are equally responsible for "the destruction of 'sense-making' institutions" and "anti-intellectual mood-affiliation" and "corruption", which is an unstated assumption in these discussions. Is one party perfect? No, and there never will be a perfect party. But one party is less-bad, and that's all you can ever hope for. Vote for the less-bad party until the other one gets its act together and becomes even less-bad, and then vote for that one.

GuitarStv

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #243 on: July 08, 2020, 07:50:25 AM »
I haven’t read this whole thread so maybe this was mentioned but does anyone think either candidate makes it 4 years.

One is an overweight old man who lives on fast food / hydroxychloroquine / probably adderall and is up all hours Of the night rage tweeting.

The other is an even older man who seems deep into cognitive decline. May physically survive 4 years but not mentally. Then another 4 for re election...

What a shit show.

Weird.  You don't believe that Trump is 'deep into cognitive decline'?  Have you never listened to the man speak?

No

I watch trump give the Rushmore speech or field questions from reporters and I see the same jerk I’ve seen for the last 4 years.

I see Biden as slipping into dementia. I’ve seen it time and again with clients I work with. Look Biden seems likely to be president - I hope it’s just that  he has just lost a step but I don’t think that’s the case.


Quote
We’ll have an economy based on wind. I never understood wind. You know, I know windmills very much. I’ve studied it better than anybody I know. It’s very expensive. They’re made in China and Germany mostly, very few made here, almost none. But they’re manufactured — tremendous, if you’re into this, tremendous fumes, gases are spewing into the atmosphere. You know we have a world, right? So the world is tiny compared to the universe. So tremendous, tremendous amount of fumes and everything — you talk about the “carbon footprint” — fumes are spewing into the air, right? Spewing. Whether it’s in China, Germany, it’s going into the air. It’s our air, their air, everything, right?

So they make these things, and then they put them up, and if you own a house within vision of some of these monsters, your house is worth 50 percent of the price. They’re noisy, they kill the birds. You want to see a bird graveyard? You just go, take a look, a bird graveyard? Go under a windmill some day. You’ll see more birds than you’ve ever seen ever in your life


Agreed that Trump is the same old racist fool he was before the last election.  But if he's not senile, he's at least dangerously stupid/incompetent.  Is the latter a better or worse trait?

sherr

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #244 on: July 08, 2020, 08:07:06 AM »
I'm all-in on Kanye--let's all live the American Meme!

But seriously, what is the best way to punish both parties for their terrible performance? Should we go in the full-blown IDW-endorsed direction and go with this? IDW-commandant Brett Weinstein says we should and he understands both the bankruptcy of the Church of SJWs and of the underlying electoral signal behind the Trump phenomenon. The destruction of our "sense-making" institutions are creating a situation where some of the basic tenets of post-enlightenment Western Civilization are under threat through post-modern rot and anti-rational mood-affiliation. Evergreen 2.0.

As a life-long independent and general believer in good governance, I support this in principle.  The trick is selling people(who may be "independent" but not politically neutral) on the idea that this candidate/pair of candidates is viable in the first place so that voting for them wouldn't just be furthering the election of a candidate they REALLY dislike.

I still think it'd take a fracturing of one of the major parties - most likely a left vs. centrist split of the Democratic party - or the Democrats as a whole moving further to the left, to truly open the door to something like this.  I don't think we're far from that point, but I don't believe we're quite there yet.

I think that a disintegration of one or both parties is a necessary prerequisite before a "unity ticket" could actually win. The game-theory of first-past-the-post winner-take-all elections virtually guarantees that there will be two powerful parties with roughly equal support. Which two parties those are can and has changed in the past, but there will always be two. The "unity ticket party" would have to supplant one, which would require that party to be in serious crumbling disarray first.

The more practical way to make things be more "centrist" is to nudge the two parties in that direction, by voting in the primaries for the more centrist / less crazy candidate, and then voting in the general for the more centrist / less crazy candidate. A huge part of the problem today is that only party loyalists vote in the primaries, which means that often the "not centrist" candidate wins.

I also flat-out reject the notion that both sides are equally responsible for "the destruction of 'sense-making' institutions" and "anti-intellectual mood-affiliation" and "corruption", which is an unstated assumption in these discussions. Is one party perfect? No, and there never will be a perfect party. But one party is less-bad, and that's all you can ever hope for. Vote for the less-bad party until the other one gets its act together and becomes even less-bad, and then vote for that one.

I'll also point out that that "unity ticket" article is almost entirely empty words, with no specific call to action. And despite constantly equating "left and right-authoritarianism" and claiming without evidence that "both parties have delivered Presidential candidates who are broadly distrusted and show no capacity to rise above partisan politics", the worst thing they can find to say about Biden is that people aren't very enthusiastic about voting for him. And it specifically requires the candidates to be "highly capable", which certainly does not apply to Kanye West. Kanye is good at making music, there is no indication at all that he'd be good at running the country.

I don't know about you but I've had enough of zero-experience-governing inflated-ego celebrity meme-driven presidencies for one lifetime, thank you very much. If you want to propose a Hickenlooper/Kasich ticket then come find me. Kanye West/Taylor Swift? GTFO.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2020, 08:14:02 AM by sherr »

Samuel

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #245 on: July 08, 2020, 09:22:25 AM »
I don't know about you but I've had enough of zero-experience-governing inflated-ego celebrity meme-driven presidencies for one lifetime, thank you very much. If you want to propose a Hickenlooper/Kasich ticket then come find me. Kanye West/Taylor Swift? GTFO.

When Weinstein discussed the Unity ticket idea on the Joe Rogan podcast a few weeks ago he used Admiral William McRaven and Andrew Yang as his example. Would work for me.


sherr

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #246 on: July 08, 2020, 09:25:48 AM »
I don't know about you but I've had enough of zero-experience-governing inflated-ego celebrity meme-driven presidencies for one lifetime, thank you very much. If you want to propose a Hickenlooper/Kasich ticket then come find me. Kanye West/Taylor Swift? GTFO.

When Weinstein discussed the Unity ticket idea on the Joe Rogan podcast a few weeks ago he used Admiral William McRaven and Andrew Yang as his example. Would work for me.

And yet they are not running, and anti-vax Kanye is. #America.

Samuel

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #247 on: July 08, 2020, 09:33:07 AM »
I don't know about you but I've had enough of zero-experience-governing inflated-ego celebrity meme-driven presidencies for one lifetime, thank you very much. If you want to propose a Hickenlooper/Kasich ticket then come find me. Kanye West/Taylor Swift? GTFO.

When Weinstein discussed the Unity ticket idea on the Joe Rogan podcast a few weeks ago he used Admiral William McRaven and Andrew Yang as his example. Would work for me.

And yet they are not running, and anti-vax Kanye is. #America.

Yeah, he also admitted they would have to be "drafted" by a significant group of people appealing to their patriotism. Seems like any window that existed for that is just about closed now.

sherr

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #248 on: July 08, 2020, 09:41:15 AM »
Yeah, he also admitted they would have to be "drafted" by a significant group of people appealing to their patriotism. Seems like any window that existed for that is just about closed now.

Right, they have a word for that: "primary". Which requires you to have a party that is organized and popular enough to get on the ballots and get people to vote for you. Which goes back to my original point, that a partyless "unity ticket" is a completely impractical idea that will never happen, and has no concrete steps to take to make it a reality.

Maybe after Trump the Republican Party will completely self-destruct, and a "Unity Party" can take its place. Until then vote in the D/R primaries/general election for the candidate you like the best.

jim555

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Re: Poll: Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
« Reply #249 on: July 08, 2020, 03:55:20 PM »
Utterly absurd, "Unity Party".