Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response

[waltworks]

Today's update: 3667/94

Hospitalizations still not updated, maybe TX has stopped reporting them?

-W

[JGS1980]

Good thing we can track in real time what's happening when TX decided to become a "fuck it" state!

4/1: 3931/96 Cases pretty much flat, deaths still falling but slowly.

As a reminder, when Abbot opened everything up on March 10th, the numbers were 4909/190, but both were already trending down.

Still no hospitalizations update since 3/27 for some reason.

-W

Falling deaths are a good thing, hopefully an indicator that the vaccine is doing it's work on the most likely to die from this disease.

After the shenanigans going on with Florida's covid death reporting though, I was curious about whether or not there was anything odd or any juking of the data going on with Texas' numbers.  So I checked the county by county testing data from https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/AdditionalData.aspx which is kinda cool BTW - they list stuff daily up to march 31st.

When you calculate the average daily testing done across the state over the past couple months:
Dec   123042
Jan   141344
Feb   108831
Mar    84806

There certainly seems to be a lot less covid testing going on since re-opening.  Which is a little weird.  You would expect that if case numbers are flat testing would be flat too.  If case numbers are flat and testing is dropping though, that means that the percentage of people testing positive is higher than before.  Which likely indicates that there's more spread going on than we are measuring.  Larger than should be expected amounts of transmission is a little unsettling given the uncertain long term implications of a large portion of the population becoming infected.  As before, time will tell if there's a price to be paid by the people of Texas for this risk that their governor is taking.

Remember early on when scientist after scientist kept on emphasizing how important testing is? Here you go guys, this may help:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/texas

Now compare that graph to NY's testing:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/new-york

Now tell me which state is better at capturing the actual number of cases in their state? As our former president stated, "If we didn’t do any testing, we would have very few cases." Abbot is doing a heckuva job.

That site is pretty fun to play around with to compare states' relative dedication to the cause of testing. Washington's is damn impressive.

Walt, I really hope Texas does not have another Covid death wave b/c they've saturated their population with vaccines. Their data show only 14.3% of Texas residents have been fully vaccinated as of 3/31/21.  If they do have another wave greater than other states, we will know why.

[Chris22]

Well, still, it's a win for Abbot/DeSantis when they can say "See? Everyone who predicted disaster was wrong!"

So half the problem is people/media predicting too much disaster and generally being too pessimistic, which means any sort of not-disaster means the "it's just the flu" people can claim victory. If I see one more NYT chart showing how long it'll take to vaccinate 70% of people "at current rates" I'm going to throw my hat on the floor and stomp on it... it's like they *want* people to be depressed and scared.

-W

[JGS1980]

Well, still, it's a win for Abbot/DeSantis when they can say "See? Everyone who predicted disaster was wrong!"

So half the problem is people/media predicting too much disaster and generally being too pessimistic, which means any sort of not-disaster means the "it's just the flu" people can claim victory. If I see one more NYT chart showing how long it'll take to vaccinate 70% of people "at current rates" I'm going to throw my hat on the floor and stomp on it... it's like they *want* people to be depressed and scared.

-W

Hi Chriss22,

For the record, I'm not overly concerned about unpredictable and unpreventable fears (aka will an airplane fall out of the sky and hit my home this week?).  I am, however, very much concerned about preventable/controllable risk factors (aka seat belts, guns in the home, smoking, covid exposure, blood pressure management, polio vaccines, etc...). Note the three highest causes of death last year are Heart Disease, Cancer, and Covid19.

[jehovasfitness23]

Well, still, it's a win for Abbot/DeSantis when they can say "See? Everyone who predicted disaster was wrong!"

So half the problem is people/media predicting too much disaster and generally being too pessimistic, which means any sort of not-disaster means the "it's just the flu" people can claim victory. If I see one more NYT chart showing how long it'll take to vaccinate 70% of people "at current rates" I'm going to throw my hat on the floor and stomp on it... it's like they *want* people to be depressed and scared.

-W

Hi Chriss22,

For the record, I'm not overly concerned about unpredictable and unpreventable fears (aka will an airplane fall out of the sky and hit my home this week?).  I am, however, very much concerned about preventable/controllable risk factors (aka seat belts, guns in the home, smoking, covid exposure, blood pressure management, polio vaccines, etc...). Note the three highest causes of death last year are Heart Disease, Cancer, and Covid19.

The first 2 are highly related to genetics as well as lifestyle factors, and the latter takes decades of bad decisions to show up.  Covid 19 totally preventable though and mostly easy to do w/o much sacrifice.

[waltworks]

Today's TX update (sorry, I'm on a road trip with the family and have missed a couple of days):
4/5: 3224/88

Cases lower than they have been since last June, deaths now below early November numbers.

Hospitalization numbers reappeared and are at a series low (again) of 3538.

Also notable, test % positive is at an all-time low in TX now if you exclude wildly varying numbers (presumably on a tiny number of tests) from March/April 2020.

-W

[Tinker]

Looking at the numbers, i don't see what you're complaining about. If i were in California, I'd be complaining about all the obviously useless restrictions.

[waltworks]

Today's update: 2943/84 

Cases were last this low in June 2020.

-W

[JGS1980]

Today's update: 2943/84 

Cases were last this low in June 2020.

-W

Walt, what effect do you thing the full capacity Texas Rangers games will have?

[waltworks]

That will be interesting to watch. My sense is that a combination of vaccinations and having lucked out with variants so far (maybe) means it'll be no big deal. We won't know for several weeks, of course.

-W

[OtherJen]

That will be interesting to watch. My sense is that a combination of vaccinations and having lucked out with variants so far (maybe) means it'll be no big deal. We won't know for several weeks, of course.

-W

I wonder if we'll see the same pattern as last year, wherein the southern and southwestern states saw spikes in case numbers as the outdoor temperatures increased and people began to spend more time indoors in AC. Case and hospitalization numbers here in Michigan have nearly rebounded to the levels seen a year ago, and our case numbers have been much higher since September (schools, cold weather) than they were last summer.

[fuzzy math]

Jehovas - i think it is complicated though.

What I mean is there is a balance right? risk will never be zero, yet kids need to be in school and business need to open. Locking everyone in their house they way the CCP did would mitigate risk even more but, again balance.

Of course there's a balance and a lot of people felt that some governors were tilted too far towards profits over people.

So kids in school = profits over people? Last I checked kids were people and they needed to go to school.

Also as a front line worker I can tell you that the supply chain continues to be HORRIBLY disrupted by the effects of people staying home. Niche medical products are unavailable (sometimes the raw components that makes building the products weeks to months out), medicines are unavailable. We've had patients who we were actually concerned about keeping alive when certain medicines ran out. When my hospital manages to source these products the shipping lines are so messed up and disrupted that there is literally no guarantee of when we will receive things. Things say they're going to arrive on a Monday, we have critically ill patients, and we find out something sat on a truck in Memphis for 4 days before it was located. It never used to be like this. So people staying home and not working or working remotely (including the people in materials management who buy the products that keep people alive not being in house, causing further delays) actually do affect the lives of people. Its not as cut and dry as you'd think for the profits over people. If you look at all the essential services out there, it encompasses a vast majority of the work force. A single spoke in the wheel being missing leads to multiple downstream effects that actually endanger people's lives. 
The same thing goes for trades. Say you can't find a plumber, electrician etc and your house floods, burns down or your foundation collapses. For all those people in Alabama whose lives were upended by the tornadoes, they'd sure like the supply chain to come back, they'd like laborers to be available and to source wood to rebuild their homes. I thought everyone had learned that when they weren't sure how many days in the future they'd have the option to wipe their butts. I guess people forget quickly.

Staying home is a luxury for computer programmers, and we have such an over representation of that field here, that everyone gets caught in a reverberating feedback loop that the rest of the world can stay home too. Its not that simple.

[bacchi]

Jehovas - i think it is complicated though.

What I mean is there is a balance right? risk will never be zero, yet kids need to be in school and business need to open. Locking everyone in their house they way the CCP did would mitigate risk even more but, again balance.

Of course there's a balance and a lot of people felt that some governors were tilted too far towards profits over people.

So kids in school = profits over people? Last I checked kids were people and they needed to go to school.

Strawman.

Also as a front line worker I can tell you that the supply chain continues to be HORRIBLY disrupted by the effects of people staying home.

What?

The supply chain isn't being affected because the Texas Rangers' games aren't able to seat 40,000 people. The supply of medical products isn't being disrupted
because you can't go to a hair salon or drink in a crowded bar.

Niche medical products are unavailable (sometimes the raw components that makes building the products weeks to months out), medicines are unavailable.

Please provide proof that this is because of too strict covid measures. Are there ANY areas (states, cities, counties) where the authorities told medical supply workers to shutter the business and not work?


For example, this is why meat in grocery stores was limited during the pandemic. It wasn't because of meddlesome Democrats.

“When COVID-19 hit, we were 85 percent restaurants, zero direct to consumer, and about 15 percent was...butcher shops and retailers,” he explained.

Now, Latham said restaurants are only 45 percent of his businesses, and 10 percent comes from a new direct-to-consumer model.
[...]
“When COVID hit and the big packing plants were getting written up in the paper, hundreds and hundreds of people getting sick. It really temporarily stopped the supply chain, which most people don't realize is just so massive,” Latham said.

[waltworks]

I wonder if we'll see the same pattern as last year, wherein the southern and southwestern states saw spikes in case numbers as the outdoor temperatures increased and people began to spend more time indoors in AC. Case and hospitalization numbers here in Michigan have nearly rebounded to the levels seen a year ago, and our case numbers have been much higher since September (schools, cold weather) than they were last summer.

There's not that much fuel left to burn with all the infections that have happened and the now pretty rapid pace of vaccinations. But that's certainly possible. Is it AC weather already in TX in April?

-W

[Michael in ABQ]

I wonder if we'll see the same pattern as last year, wherein the southern and southwestern states saw spikes in case numbers as the outdoor temperatures increased and people began to spend more time indoors in AC. Case and hospitalization numbers here in Michigan have nearly rebounded to the levels seen a year ago, and our case numbers have been much higher since September (schools, cold weather) than they were last summer.

There's not that much fuel left to burn with all the infections that have happened and the now pretty rapid pace of vaccinations. But that's certainly possible. Is it AC weather already in TX in April?

-W

It was about 80 in Albuquerque today. I've got the AC running now to cool the house down for the night. Texas is generally hotter since we're up at 5,000 feet and they're down closer to sea level.

[waltworks]

Today's update: 3007/82

It appears to me that hospitalizations are only updating weekly.

-W

[fuzzy math]

What?

The supply chain isn't being affected because the Texas Rangers' games aren't able to seat 40,000 people. The supply of medical products isn't being disrupted
because you can't go to a hair salon or drink in a crowded bar.

Niche medical products are unavailable (sometimes the raw components that makes building the products weeks to months out), medicines are unavailable.

Please provide proof that this is because of too strict covid measures. Are there ANY areas (states, cities, counties) where the authorities told medical supply workers to shutter the business and not work?


For example, this is why meat in grocery stores was limited during the pandemic. It wasn't because of meddlesome Democrats.

“When COVID-19 hit, we were 85 percent restaurants, zero direct to consumer, and about 15 percent was...butcher shops and retailers,” he explained.

Now, Latham said restaurants are only 45 percent of his businesses, and 10 percent comes from a new direct-to-consumer model.
[...]
“When COVID hit and the big packing plants were getting written up in the paper, hundreds and hundreds of people getting sick. It really temporarily stopped the supply chain, which most people don't realize is just so massive,” Latham said.

Its not my job to do a full scale economic analysis and presentation of raw goods flow into and through the United States for you, but I can absolutely tell you (reiterating what I said previously) that shut downs (both international and domestic) have disrupted the supply chain in multiple previously unforeseen ways. The facility that my hospital buys sharps bins from burned down and other facilities are back ordered so we literally don't have enough sharps bins to dispose of syringes in. One of the drugs I'm referring to is back ordered because it comes from a compounding pharmacy and they're short on the plastic IV bags they put the medication in. A niche medical product contains polymethyl pentene and only 1 supplier in Europe makes the fibers that are needed. When that was shut down, delays of those raw goods occur. Then shipping delays occur (like referenced above). Then manufacturing delays etc. I've literally heard it all. Even keeping a customer service agent at home, separate from managerial oversight can cause misunderstandings or delays that can further disrupt the supply chain.

I outlined how things have unforeseen downstream consequences, and your response was to infer that I took an issue with "meddlesome Democrats" because only they don't "value profits over people". You might to better to fully try to understand the problem, and understand why fully reopening sectors by removing capacity limits on production /distribution facilities et al. in more severely locked down states might help. This also isn't just about the United States. When people read that Italy or the UK are shut down again, they believe we're all satanists if _____ state doesn't issue another lockdown. Those countries are still supplying goods to the US. I don't give a shit about baseball or restaurants. Im talking about the pure hysteria that caused industries to send people home, so now people can just hope that their loved ones can get the products they need. By the way these are not COVID products that I'm referencing. These are every day supplies and its been irreperably messed up since May. Perhaps some of those "non meddlesome Republicans" understood that they don't have a full handle on the interconnectedness of industry and they believed it simply better to open up.

[bacchi]

The facility that my hospital buys sharps bins from burned down

Uhhhhh.

[fuzzy math]

The facility that my hospital buys sharps bins from burned down

Uhhhhh.

Yeah I was curious about that too. But apparently now no one else can give us used needle bins in a timely fashion now.
Opened my email and here's another treat - this drug reverses anticoagulants and literally can stop a patient from bleeding to death. Back ordered til May due to manufacturing delays.

[OtherJen]

I wonder if we'll see the same pattern as last year, wherein the southern and southwestern states saw spikes in case numbers as the outdoor temperatures increased and people began to spend more time indoors in AC. Case and hospitalization numbers here in Michigan have nearly rebounded to the levels seen a year ago, and our case numbers have been much higher since September (schools, cold weather) than they were last summer.

There's not that much fuel left to burn with all the infections that have happened and the now pretty rapid pace of vaccinations. But that's certainly possible. Is it AC weather already in TX in April?

-W

The spikes in the South and Southwest emerged mostly after Memorial Day last year. Vaccine hesitancy and refusal in the Bible Belt is a bit concerning. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/09/health/vaccine-mississippi-demand.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

Statewide data also don’t give the full picture. A month ago, Michigan’s county map looked like Texas’s does today, with only the Thumb turning red. Now many hospitals are once again worried about capacity, and at least one major hospital system has begun to cancel non-essential surgeries.

[waltworks]

Today, 3072/76

We should have a hospitalization update tomorrow.

-W

[waltworks]

3452/72

I missed several days as I was on the road with the family. Cases are drifting up slowly, deaths continue to decline.

Hospitalizations up to 3362, so progress there has stalled.

-W

[OtherJen]

3452/72

I missed several days as I was on the road with the family. Cases are drifting up slowly, deaths continue to decline.

Hospitalizations up to 3362, so progress there has stalled.

-W

So far in this pandemic, death trends have lagged case number and hospitalization trends by a few weeks but have taken the same direction. However, that was both pre-vaccine and pre-variants. Who knows what will happen over the next 8 weeks?

[bacchi]

3452/72

I missed several days as I was on the road with the family. Cases are drifting up slowly, deaths continue to decline.

Hospitalizations up to 3362, so progress there has stalled.

-W

So far in this pandemic, death trends have lagged case number and hospitalization trends by a few weeks but have taken the same direction. However, that was both pre-vaccine and pre-variants. Who knows what will happen over the next 8 weeks?

Michigan is seeing a rapid increase in hospitalizations, probably from a variant. That may be what Texas is starting to see, as well, and they'll see a vaccinations vs variants race.

[OtherJen]

3452/72

I missed several days as I was on the road with the family. Cases are drifting up slowly, deaths continue to decline.

Hospitalizations up to 3362, so progress there has stalled.

-W

So far in this pandemic, death trends have lagged case number and hospitalization trends by a few weeks but have taken the same direction. However, that was both pre-vaccine and pre-variants. Who knows what will happen over the next 8 weeks?

Michigan is seeing a rapid increase in hospitalizations, probably from a variant. That may be what Texas is starting to see, as well, and they'll see a vaccinations vs variants race.

Our rise in Michigan is definitely from the UK variant. Vaccination hasn’t kept pace, in no small part because we opened up high schools, school sports, and restaurants/bars before opening the vaccination program to people under 65. As a 42-year-old without preexisting conditions or a high-risk job, I only became eligible for vaccination last Monday. Our local hospital systems are already becoming overloaded to the point that nonessential procedures are being canceled, and the largest proportion of hospitalized COVID patients are in their 40s and 50s.

https://www.michiganradio.org/post/northern-michigan-health-officials-say-coronavirus-variant-causing-larger-outbreaks

https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/covid-cases-climbing-in-michigan-with-dangerous-surge-as-variants-to-blame

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/04/b-1-1-7-variant-now-predominant-coronavirus-in-us-cases-spike-in-michigan/

https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-health-watch/workers-weary-patients-angry-covid-fills-michigan-hospitals-again

https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-health-watch/michigan-school-covid-outbreaks-surge-47-2-weeks-some-return-remote

[jehovasfitness23]

so Desantis says private businesses can't require vaccination? LOL what about the free market bro

[OtherJen]

so Desantis says private businesses can't require vaccination? LOL what about the free market bro

The GQP only cares about the free market when it benefits or agrees with them. Otherwise, it's "cancel culture."

[GuitarStv]

so Desantis says private businesses can't require vaccination? LOL what about the free market bro

The GQP only cares about the free market when it benefits or agrees with them. Otherwise, it's "cancel culture."

Important to note that 'cancel culture' by definition only applies to Democrats.  When Republicans make use of 'cancel culture' (like with individuals - Kaepernick kneeling, the conservative war on the Dixie Chicks after their anti Iraq war stance, or even within their own party with Cindy McCain - or with companies Goodyear, Nordstom, Nike, Keurig, Coke, Sephora, etc.) it's just good folks exercising their right to outrage.

So remember, when using the term cancel culture one has to examine the political beliefs of the target first - that's much more relevant than the actual 'cancelling' being done.

[waltworks]

3517/73

Definitely a plateau, though at a much lower level than when Abbot ended restrictions.

FL is rising fast, and not in a good way.

-W

[OtherJen]

Michigan is doing just fine, thank you very much. [/sarcasm]

Coronavirus Tracker | 8,867 new cases, second most ever reported (Bridge Michigan)

For the first time since the fall surge, Michigan is reporting a weekly average of more than 7,000 daily COVID-19 cases, with 8,867 new cases reported Tuesday.

It’s the second-highest daily tally, behind the 9,779 reported on Nov. 20.

-----

Hospitalizations continue to increase, though, with 4,250 patients statewide. Of those, 1,392 are in Oakland, Macomb and St. Clair counties, nearly 150 more than the peak for the region last fall.

That’s created a bottleneck at rural hospitals just north of the region, which send their serious cases to bigger hospitals to the south, said Dr. Mark Hamed. He is the medical director for several counties and an emergency room physician in Sanilac County in the Thumb, which has some of the highest infection rates in the state.

Michigan reported 74 deaths on Tuesday, the third time in a week it has reported more than 70. The last time that many deaths were reported on a single day was Feb. 18, when there were 85.

[waltworks]

So remember, when using the term cancel culture one has to examine the political beliefs of the target first - that's much more relevant than the actual 'cancelling' being done.

Those cancel culture bastards ruined apartheid.

-W

[JGS1980]

So remember, when using the term cancel culture one has to examine the political beliefs of the target first - that's much more relevant than the actual 'cancelling' being done.

Those cancel culture bastards ruined apartheid.

-W

They ain’t gonna play Sun City no more. Awful Cancel Culture!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aopKk56jM-I

[waltworks]

TX today - 3708/69 - cases still rising (though they've risen/fallen in this narrow range for several weeks), deaths down a bit more.

Cases and hospitalizations both on the upswing in FL.

-W

[waltworks]

3671/65  Nice to see the death numbers continue to drop.

-W

[waltworks]

3499/62

TX should publish hospitalization numbers for the week tomorrow.

-W

[jehovasfitness23]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/covid-19-cases-florida-since-125244953.html

[waltworks]

3379/55  Cases continue to stay in their March/April range, deaths under 1/3 of what they were when the Abbot order was issued.

Someone fatfingered a number on the hospitalizations, but they are continuing to (slowly) decrease.

My personal opinion is that this is the endgame for TX. Abbot wins this round.

-W

[bacchi]

3379/55  Cases continue to stay in their March/April range, deaths under 1/3 of what they were when the Abbot order was issued.

Someone fatfingered a number on the hospitalizations, but they are continuing to (slowly) decrease.

My personal opinion is that this is the endgame for TX. Abbot wins this round.

-W

Why aren't FL and MI following suit? FL's 7 day MA is rising and MI is definitely on an uptrend.

Florida did have a unique vaccination policy that left those no-good whippersnappers free to spread covid on the beaches and a lot of Michiganders like to vacation in Florida. Coincidence?

[OtherJen]

3379/55  Cases continue to stay in their March/April range, deaths under 1/3 of what they were when the Abbot order was issued.

Someone fatfingered a number on the hospitalizations, but they are continuing to (slowly) decrease.

My personal opinion is that this is the endgame for TX. Abbot wins this round.

-W

Why aren't FL and MI following suit? FL's 7 day MA is rising and MI is definitely on an uptrend.

Florida did have a unique vaccination policy that left those no-good whippersnappers free to spread covid on the beaches and a lot of Michiganders like to vacation in Florida. Coincidence?

I'm sure the cheap flights to Fort Lauderdale from Detroit Metro and Ford (Grand Rapids) airports had nothing to do with this. [/sarcasm]

[Tyler durden]

3379/55  Cases continue to stay in their March/April range, deaths under 1/3 of what they were when the Abbot order was issued.

Someone fatfingered a number on the hospitalizations, but they are continuing to (slowly) decrease.

My personal opinion is that this is the endgame for TX. Abbot wins this round.

-W

No, not Abbot wins this round.

The people of TX who run a business and the kids who can be in school win.

Folks who think fully vaccinated people need to double mask, well they lose this round.

[waltworks]

No, not Abbot wins this round.

The people of TX who run a business and the kids who can be in school win.

Folks who think fully vaccinated people need to double mask, well they lose this round.

Agreed, I was referring to the Abbot vs. critics (myself included) of Abbot. It doesn't look like he jumped the gun on reopening things.

Other states are having very different experiences, of course.

We've had basically everything open and kids in school since last summer here in UT and we're on of the least affected states. Totally random, it will be interesting to see what the epidemiologists can make of all this in a few years.

-W

[GuitarStv]

No, not Abbot wins this round.

The people of TX who run a business and the kids who can be in school win.

Folks who think fully vaccinated people need to double mask, well they lose this round.

Agreed, I was referring to the Abbot vs. critics (myself included) of Abbot. It doesn't look like he jumped the gun on reopening things.

Other states are having very different experiences, of course.

We've had basically everything open and kids in school since last summer here in UT and we're on of the least affected states. Totally random, it will be interesting to see what the epidemiologists can make of all this in a few years.

-W

So, you're really saying is that it appears Abbot got away with it . . . not that he made the right call then?  As you mentioned, others who did the same thing Abbot did aren't having the same luck.

[waltworks]

I guess you could look at it either way. Maybe he had some insight into the situation in TX that you and I don't. Maybe he got lucky (IMO more likely). But regardless, he was right.

-W

[GuitarStv]

I guess you could look at it either way. Maybe he had some insight into the situation in TX that you and I don't. Maybe he got lucky (IMO more likely). But regardless, he was right.

-W

It's like a guy named Texas who was thinking of driving to the mall to buy malt liquor, but instead chose to huff paint thinner at home.  And then the mall roof collapsed.  But Texas didn't die!  Therefore huffing paint fumes was the right choice!  Well . . . based on the outcome (not dying in the mall), I guess so?  But I think a more than fair case can be made that he was lucky, not right.  Because his buddies Florida and Michigan were huffing paint thinner the day before and still ended up in the mall collapse.

Maybe Texas knew that the paint thinner would save his life based on some sort of magical foreknowledge.  Just doesn't seem too likely.

[waltworks]

I think that's a bit of a tortured analogy, but ok.

Florida isn't doing that terribly, to be honest. They haven't had any meaningful restrictions on anything and they're kinda middle of the pack on outcomes, so I'm not sure the case is clear cut there either.

MI got walloped and it'll be interesting to see why, given that it was overall more restrictive. Just bad timing with variants, I'd guess.

-W

[OtherJen]

I think that's a bit of a tortured analogy, but ok.

Florida isn't doing that terribly, to be honest. They haven't had any meaningful restrictions on anything and they're kinda middle of the pack on outcomes, so I'm not sure the case is clear cut there either.

MI got walloped and it'll be interesting to see why, given that it was overall more restrictive. Just bad timing with variants, I'd guess.

-W

We actually don't have any government restrictions except a 50% capacity limit on restaurants and bars (which is mostly ignored, as far as I can tell), and nightclubs are closed. The restaurants and bars have been open for indoor service for the last 2.5 months. The right wing keeps bleating about how terrible Gov. Whitmer is ("Witler" is a common pejorative for her), but their legislators and the  then GOP-controlled state supreme court stripped her of her ability to issue executive orders last fall. The state health director took over the job of issuing mandates for a bit but then resigned in January.

Businesses where I live still have mask mandates and I rarely see people with bare faces, but much of the state has consistently ignored any regulations, and the regulations we have are barely being enforced, if at all. That's why we're doing so horribly. Combine that with shitty winter weather that keeps people indoors and new variants that are ripping through schools and, well, you get a shitshow.

Things are probably going to get worse in my area. We just had Passover and Easter (and many of my friends celebrated one or the other with extended family). In my community, loads of people were squeezing in all sorts of weddings and parties before Ramadan, and of course now they're having iftar dinners and late-night food events every night. Our local hospital is already at capacity.

[cliffhanger]

I think that's a bit of a tortured analogy, but ok.

Florida isn't doing that terribly, to be honest. They haven't had any meaningful restrictions on anything and they're kinda middle of the pack on outcomes, so I'm not sure the case is clear cut there either.

MI got walloped and it'll be interesting to see why, given that it was overall more restrictive. Just bad timing with variants, I'd guess.

-W

We actually don't have any government restrictions except a 50% capacity limit on restaurants and bars (which is mostly ignored, as far as I can tell), and nightclubs are closed. The restaurants and bars have been open for indoor service for the last 2.5 months. The right wing keeps bleating about how terrible Gov. Whitmer is ("Witler" is a common pejorative for her), but their legislators and the  then GOP-controlled state supreme court stripped her of her ability to issue executive orders last fall. The state health director took over the job of issuing mandates for a bit but then resigned in January.

Businesses where I live still have mask mandates and I rarely see people with bare faces, but much of the state has consistently ignored any regulations, and the regulations we have are barely being enforced, if at all. That's why we're doing so horribly. Combine that with shitty winter weather that keeps people indoors and new variants that are ripping through schools and, well, you get a shitshow.

Things are probably going to get worse in my area. We just had Passover and Easter (and many of my friends celebrated one or the other with extended family). In my community, loads of people were squeezing in all sorts of weddings and parties before Ramadan, and of course now they're having iftar dinners and late-night food events every night. Our local hospital is already at capacity.

That sounds really irresponsible of Michiganders. To not just ignore the science at home, but ignore travel advice from Whitmer and bring the virus to FL during spring break. Now FL is starting to see a rise in cases. Floridians can't catch a break, just like a year ago more than half of new FL cases could be traced back to NY.

[GuitarStv]

I think that's a bit of a tortured analogy, but ok.

Florida isn't doing that terribly, to be honest. They haven't had any meaningful restrictions on anything and they're kinda middle of the pack on outcomes, so I'm not sure the case is clear cut there either.

MI got walloped and it'll be interesting to see why, given that it was overall more restrictive. Just bad timing with variants, I'd guess.

-W

We actually don't have any government restrictions except a 50% capacity limit on restaurants and bars (which is mostly ignored, as far as I can tell), and nightclubs are closed. The restaurants and bars have been open for indoor service for the last 2.5 months. The right wing keeps bleating about how terrible Gov. Whitmer is ("Witler" is a common pejorative for her), but their legislators and the  then GOP-controlled state supreme court stripped her of her ability to issue executive orders last fall. The state health director took over the job of issuing mandates for a bit but then resigned in January.

Businesses where I live still have mask mandates and I rarely see people with bare faces, but much of the state has consistently ignored any regulations, and the regulations we have are barely being enforced, if at all. That's why we're doing so horribly. Combine that with shitty winter weather that keeps people indoors and new variants that are ripping through schools and, well, you get a shitshow.

Things are probably going to get worse in my area. We just had Passover and Easter (and many of my friends celebrated one or the other with extended family). In my community, loads of people were squeezing in all sorts of weddings and parties before Ramadan, and of course now they're having iftar dinners and late-night food events every night. Our local hospital is already at capacity.

That sounds really irresponsible of Michiganders. To not just ignore the science at home, but ignore travel advice from Whitmer and bring the virus to FL during spring break. Now FL is starting to see a rise in cases. Floridians can't catch a break, just like a year ago more than half of new FL cases could be traced back to NY.

In 2020, Florida encouraged 86.7 million people to visit.  Doing their best to draw tourism via the state run 'Visit Florida' ad campaigns, coupled with DeSantis failing to close the state when problems first emerged and then opening the state sooner than was safe . . . it's very hard to catch a break when you're working as hard as possible to stack the deck against yourself.

Who could have foreseen that increasing the number of people coming to your state would come with increased risk of a highly transmissible disease?

[cliffhanger]

I think that's a bit of a tortured analogy, but ok.

Florida isn't doing that terribly, to be honest. They haven't had any meaningful restrictions on anything and they're kinda middle of the pack on outcomes, so I'm not sure the case is clear cut there either.

MI got walloped and it'll be interesting to see why, given that it was overall more restrictive. Just bad timing with variants, I'd guess.

-W

We actually don't have any government restrictions except a 50% capacity limit on restaurants and bars (which is mostly ignored, as far as I can tell), and nightclubs are closed. The restaurants and bars have been open for indoor service for the last 2.5 months. The right wing keeps bleating about how terrible Gov. Whitmer is ("Witler" is a common pejorative for her), but their legislators and the  then GOP-controlled state supreme court stripped her of her ability to issue executive orders last fall. The state health director took over the job of issuing mandates for a bit but then resigned in January.

Businesses where I live still have mask mandates and I rarely see people with bare faces, but much of the state has consistently ignored any regulations, and the regulations we have are barely being enforced, if at all. That's why we're doing so horribly. Combine that with shitty winter weather that keeps people indoors and new variants that are ripping through schools and, well, you get a shitshow.

Things are probably going to get worse in my area. We just had Passover and Easter (and many of my friends celebrated one or the other with extended family). In my community, loads of people were squeezing in all sorts of weddings and parties before Ramadan, and of course now they're having iftar dinners and late-night food events every night. Our local hospital is already at capacity.

That sounds really irresponsible of Michiganders. To not just ignore the science at home, but ignore travel advice from Whitmer and bring the virus to FL during spring break. Now FL is starting to see a rise in cases. Floridians can't catch a break, just like a year ago more than half of new FL cases could be traced back to NY.

In 2020, Florida encouraged 86.7 million people to visit.  Doing their best to draw tourism via the state run 'Visit Florida' ad campaigns, coupled with DeSantis failing to close the state when problems first emerged and then opening the state sooner than was safe . . . it's very hard to catch a break when you're working as hard as possible to stack the deck against yourself.

Who could have foreseen that increasing the number of people coming to your state would come with increased risk of a highly transmissible disease?

Definitely not Bill de Blasio or Nancy Pelosi.

Also Andrew Cuomo (and all the other Govs who followed his lead) not seeing the threat of sending Covid positive patients into nursing homes...

[waltworks]

For what it's worth, I'm going to stop posting daily numbers unless something interesting happens with TX. I don't think there's much point anymore.

-W