Author Topic: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response  (Read 108028 times)

JGS1980

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Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« on: June 16, 2020, 01:15:32 PM »
This question is just for Floridians:

Hate to be so direct, but what the hell is wrong with your state? Is there still support for the current Governor Ron Desantis with the current progression of the Covid pandemic?

How are you folks handling things locally? Are you sheltering MORE at home due to recent trends, or are you over this?

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/florida-coronavirus-cases.html

Heck, if this was going on in my state, there'd be pitchforks and baseball bats out in full force! (wait, folks are already out there, but for different reasons)



LifeHappens

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #1 on: June 16, 2020, 01:28:36 PM »
I'll admit to being a Floridian, but I don't know if I can tell you EVERYTHING that is wrong with the state. That would take... a while.

Ron DeSantis was elected because he received an endorsement from you-know-who. Before that he was a 2nd tier US Rep, running against much stronger Republican candidates in the gubernatorial primary. He owes a certain person a lot of favors, which apparently goes up to and includes allowing a super spreading event to take place in Jacksonville in 8 weeks.

Some of those favors seem to be taking shape by: 1) not ordering a Stay At Home for the state until well after most states and 2) "re-opening" the state come Hell or High Water (and we know a few things about High Water around here). See this article in Politico for more details: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/16/trump-florida-coronavirus-321600

As for me, my DH and I continue to shelter in place pretty hard. We'll go out and purchase what we need. We've been hosting and attending socially distanced events with friends and neighbors. We've both had dentist appointments this month. That's about it. No haircuts, no dining in restaurants, no movie theaters, etc. Things are definitely re-opening and I hate to miss out on my running group and book club, but the risk is already high and getting higher every day.

JGS1980

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2020, 06:28:38 PM »
I like the term “risk adjusted fun”. This guy doesn’t plan to travel to the south or southeast this summer. To be fair, I won’t be in NYC either. But Florida, oh man, Florida is just asking for it, and it makes me sad because DeathHappens but it’s totally preventable.

MasterStache

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #3 on: June 16, 2020, 08:37:51 PM »
We are making tentative plans to travel in August and have ruled out Florida.

FINate

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #4 on: June 16, 2020, 09:11:13 PM »
Well, California has approximately twice the number of confirmed cases and close to twice the number of deaths. CA also has nearly twice the population... In other words, about the same per capita [ Why oh why do major news outlets publish graphs of absolute numbers for comparisons - per capita makes so much more sense! ]

Yet our governor is determined to keep the reopening on track.

Local health officials are increasingly alarmed, but most people seem to be okay with it. Quarantine fatigue, I suppose.

wenchsenior

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #5 on: June 16, 2020, 10:35:17 PM »
Our midsize city in Texas just absolutely blew the roof off our previous 'record high in one day' number of covid cases (which had occurred during the 'height' of the first wave during April).  Now we've got a fuckton of college students that have apparently been infected b/c they've all been crowding maskless into bars and restaurants (it appears that the majority of the city's citizens just gave up completely on wearing masks about 10 days ago, from what I see when I go to the grocery store).  The university opened its gym and restarted its sports teams a couple weeks ago; and right on schedule, 4 of the university sports teams now have multiple Covid cases.  The city is reporting 8-10 new confirmed public exposure sites in the city just in the past 2 days.

But, the mayor hasn't commented, and the city is proceeding with its plan to expand restaurant/bar/movie theater capacity to 75% this coming week.

Fun times. We did a really good job squashing the cases down to low single digits every day post-lockdown, but not anymore. It's going to be a shit show here by next month.

DoubleDown

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #6 on: June 17, 2020, 09:13:12 AM »
As disturbing and alarming as all the new cases are to me, and seeing images of people behaving irresponsibly pisses me off, part of me at least feels like, "Good, get it over with, the more of you that act irresponsibly and get infected all at once while I hunker down, the quicker it's all over." Meaning, absent a vaccination or effective treatment, the more people that get infected and develop antibodies, the faster we get to herd immunity and things can get back to some level of normal.

This is all easy for me to say since I haven't personally known anyone affected by Covid-19, and of course I'm disturbed at irresponsible people (hey let's all go to a packed bar! let's hold a giant 20,000-person political rally without masks in Tulsa!) potentially infecting others who are doing their best to avoid infection. But at least we'll be that much closer to getting through it.

JGS1980

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #7 on: June 17, 2020, 09:36:07 AM »
As disturbing and alarming as all the new cases are to me, and seeing images of people behaving irresponsibly pisses me off, part of me at least feels like, "Good, get it over with, the more of you that act irresponsibly and get infected all at once while I hunker down, the quicker it's all over." Meaning, absent a vaccination or effective treatment, the more people that get infected and develop antibodies, the faster we get to herd immunity and things can get back to some level of normal.

This is all easy for me to say since I haven't personally known anyone affected by Covid-19, and of course I'm disturbed at irresponsible people (hey let's all go to a packed bar! let's hold a giant 20,000-person political rally without masks in Tulsa!) potentially infecting others who are doing their best to avoid infection. But at least we'll be that much closer to getting through it.

I have this awful nauseous feeling that these same irresponsible individuals are the ones will will refuse the coronavirus vaccine when it becomes available because "it's too dangerous".

Apparently, in the internet age you can believe anything you want! (and then find someone online somewhere who agrees with you).

FINate

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #8 on: June 17, 2020, 09:42:54 AM »
As disturbing and alarming as all the new cases are to me, and seeing images of people behaving irresponsibly pisses me off, part of me at least feels like, "Good, get it over with, the more of you that act irresponsibly and get infected all at once while I hunker down, the quicker it's all over." Meaning, absent a vaccination or effective treatment, the more people that get infected and develop antibodies, the faster we get to herd immunity and things can get back to some level of normal.

This is all easy for me to say since I haven't personally known anyone affected by Covid-19, and of course I'm disturbed at irresponsible people (hey let's all go to a packed bar! let's hold a giant 20,000-person political rally without masks in Tulsa!) potentially infecting others who are doing their best to avoid infection. But at least we'll be that much closer to getting through it.

I have this awful nauseous feeling that these same irresponsible individuals are the ones will will refuse the coronavirus vaccine when it becomes available because "it's too dangerous".

Apparently, in the internet age you can believe anything you want! (and then find someone online somewhere who agrees with you).

Does that include believing nauseous feelings about broad groups of people w/o citing any evidence?

JGS1980

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #9 on: June 17, 2020, 10:07:50 AM »
As disturbing and alarming as all the new cases are to me, and seeing images of people behaving irresponsibly pisses me off, part of me at least feels like, "Good, get it over with, the more of you that act irresponsibly and get infected all at once while I hunker down, the quicker it's all over." Meaning, absent a vaccination or effective treatment, the more people that get infected and develop antibodies, the faster we get to herd immunity and things can get back to some level of normal.

This is all easy for me to say since I haven't personally known anyone affected by Covid-19, and of course I'm disturbed at irresponsible people (hey let's all go to a packed bar! let's hold a giant 20,000-person political rally without masks in Tulsa!) potentially infecting others who are doing their best to avoid infection. But at least we'll be that much closer to getting through it.

I have this awful nauseous feeling that these same irresponsible individuals are the ones will will refuse the coronavirus vaccine when it becomes available because "it's too dangerous".

Apparently, in the internet age you can believe anything you want! (and then find someone online somewhere who agrees with you).

Does that include believing nauseous feelings about broad groups of people w/o citing any evidence?

I don't quite understand what you're getting at FINate, but for here's a quick google search example of a silly conspiracy theory.

https://www.bbc.com/news/52847648

FINate

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #10 on: June 17, 2020, 11:26:55 AM »
As disturbing and alarming as all the new cases are to me, and seeing images of people behaving irresponsibly pisses me off, part of me at least feels like, "Good, get it over with, the more of you that act irresponsibly and get infected all at once while I hunker down, the quicker it's all over." Meaning, absent a vaccination or effective treatment, the more people that get infected and develop antibodies, the faster we get to herd immunity and things can get back to some level of normal.

This is all easy for me to say since I haven't personally known anyone affected by Covid-19, and of course I'm disturbed at irresponsible people (hey let's all go to a packed bar! let's hold a giant 20,000-person political rally without masks in Tulsa!) potentially infecting others who are doing their best to avoid infection. But at least we'll be that much closer to getting through it.

I have this awful nauseous feeling that these same irresponsible individuals are the ones will will refuse the coronavirus vaccine when it becomes available because "it's too dangerous".

Apparently, in the internet age you can believe anything you want! (and then find someone online somewhere who agrees with you).

Does that include believing nauseous feelings about broad groups of people w/o citing any evidence?

I don't quite understand what you're getting at FINate, but for here's a quick google search example of a silly conspiracy theory.

https://www.bbc.com/news/52847648

You have to connect the conspiracy theory to the groups you believe are being irresponsible in spreading the virus, and make the case that they are disproportionately represented. From what I can tell the anti-vax movement is a bipartisan sickness (https://brownpoliticalreview.org/2020/05/a-case-for-listening-to-anti-vaxxers/), and Tulsa is not unique in holding large political rallies (a protest is a political event).

What I'm getting at is a reflex to spin a narrative polarizing everything: picking on certain states/governors or certain activities, while ignoring equivalents that don't fit the narrative. Every state, red and blue, is grappling with the harsh reality that COVID-19 isn't going away anytime soon, yet it's infeasible to shut down the economy for the next 12-18 months. It would appear that some of the red states were ahead of the curve, so to speak, in this realization. California talked a great deal about "science, not politics must be the guide", how quickly the tone changed when confronted with a $54 billion budget deficit.

To be clear, I'm not anti-science, quite the opposite! Science can (and should!) inform policy. However, the idea that science can replace politics by giving us pure objective answers to everything is a positivist dream discredited by 20th century philosophers. Setting policy requires weighing risk vs. reward within a value system... it's inherently political.

So let's debate the merits of opening different parts of the economy. But let's do so with a large dose of grace, humility, and evenhandedness. There are no easy answers. Every state and every leader will make both good and bad decisions.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2020, 11:38:23 AM by FINate »

dividendman

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #11 on: June 17, 2020, 11:55:16 AM »
Florida is the state with the second highest % of the population being senior citizens, what could possibly go wrong?

Kris

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #12 on: June 17, 2020, 11:58:00 AM »
Florida is the state with the second highest % of the population being senior citizens, what could possibly go wrong?

Right? I mean, my God, at least you'd think the Republicans should be trying to preserve their voting base.

LifeHappens

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #13 on: June 17, 2020, 12:22:53 PM »
Florida is the state with the second highest % of the population being senior citizens, what could possibly go wrong?
At least as of a couple weeks ago, nearly 50% of the COVID deaths in Florida occurred in nursing homes. It's horrifying.

Chris22

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #14 on: June 17, 2020, 12:29:22 PM »
Florida is the state with the second highest % of the population being senior citizens, what could possibly go wrong?
At least as of a couple weeks ago, nearly 50% of the COVID deaths in Florida occurred in nursing homes. It's horrifying.

Why is that horrifying?  Isn’t it exactly as expected?  Except maybe a little low?

Also, maybe an unpopular opinion, but if I’m ever in a nursing home, don’t fight to keep me alive, I’d rather just go.

LifeHappens

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #15 on: June 17, 2020, 12:48:24 PM »
Florida is the state with the second highest % of the population being senior citizens, what could possibly go wrong?
At least as of a couple weeks ago, nearly 50% of the COVID deaths in Florida occurred in nursing homes. It's horrifying.

Why is that horrifying?  Isn’t it exactly as expected?  Except maybe a little low?

Also, maybe an unpopular opinion, but if I’m ever in a nursing home, don’t fight to keep me alive, I’d rather just go.
Waiting, essentially captive, for a disease to suffocate you to death? At the same time you are completely cut off from outside visitors which are likely your last source of comfort on earth? You can't see why that's horrifying?

Chris22

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #16 on: June 17, 2020, 12:50:35 PM »
Florida is the state with the second highest % of the population being senior citizens, what could possibly go wrong?
At least as of a couple weeks ago, nearly 50% of the COVID deaths in Florida occurred in nursing homes. It's horrifying.

Why is that horrifying?  Isn’t it exactly as expected?  Except maybe a little low?

Also, maybe an unpopular opinion, but if I’m ever in a nursing home, don’t fight to keep me alive, I’d rather just go.
Waiting, essentially captive, for a disease to suffocate you to death? At the same time you are completely cut off from outside visitors which are likely your last source of comfort on earth? You can't see why that's horrifying?

Which group would you rather be dying from the disease?  People who have lived a long life, orrrr?

FINate

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #17 on: June 17, 2020, 12:58:52 PM »
As disturbing and alarming as all the new cases are to me, and seeing images of people behaving irresponsibly pisses me off, part of me at least feels like, "Good, get it over with, the more of you that act irresponsibly and get infected all at once while I hunker down, the quicker it's all over." Meaning, absent a vaccination or effective treatment, the more people that get infected and develop antibodies, the faster we get to herd immunity and things can get back to some level of normal.

I sort of agree, though would state it differently.

We were all for the initial lock down and are *very* strict about this, not out of fear for our own health, but for the sake of those around us. However, we are now on month 3 of shelter in place. We'll continue following the health rules, but this is not what we collectively agreed to. The idea was always, from the start, to flatten the curve and buy time. Time to learn more about the disease, to prepare the health system, to discover treatments and therapeutics. With the exception of a few hotspots, most of the US was successful in flattening the curve. Yay us!

We now know more about this virus, how it spreads, and we know that it's not as deadly as initially feared. Remember the early 5-8% estimates? Deadlier than influenza and still something to be taken seriously. But not as dire as feared when we knew almost nothing about it.

And we now have proven therapeutics, along with knowledge of simple things like putting the critically ill on their stomach to aid breathing.

And the health system has added ICU beds/ventilators and PPE.

Vaccines are in the works, but unlikely to be ready for some time.

Three months of is equivalent to 6 2-week incubation periods. If shelter in place/quarantine was going to squash this disease then it would have done so by now. It hasn't. So we're in this in-between state, better prepared than in March, but still dealing with community spread.

IMO, I would rather have a long simmering of COVID-19 (that flat curve we talked about 3 months ago), and build up some amount of immunity in the community before everyone heads indoors and the seasonal influenza season starts. This should be a strategy shift. Stress masks in public and keeping physical distance. Spend a lot more protecting those in nursing homes, and helping those who are most vulnerable to continue sheltering in place. But the economy needs to start opening up as much as possible. This is where the risk vs. reward discussion has to happen. And this is where different areas will make different decisions based on what industries drive the local economy. Turns out generating tax revenue is an important component of being able to fund things that are also critical to health and safety.

LifeHappens

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #18 on: June 17, 2020, 01:06:07 PM »
Florida is the state with the second highest % of the population being senior citizens, what could possibly go wrong?
At least as of a couple weeks ago, nearly 50% of the COVID deaths in Florida occurred in nursing homes. It's horrifying.

Why is that horrifying?  Isn’t it exactly as expected?  Except maybe a little low?

Also, maybe an unpopular opinion, but if I’m ever in a nursing home, don’t fight to keep me alive, I’d rather just go.
Waiting, essentially captive, for a disease to suffocate you to death? At the same time you are completely cut off from outside visitors which are likely your last source of comfort on earth? You can't see why that's horrifying?

Which group would you rather be dying from the disease?  People who have lived a long life, orrrr?
Neither? I realize that ship has sailed, but I'm not interested in choosing groups of human beings to die of a terrible disease.

FIRE Artist

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #19 on: June 17, 2020, 05:29:44 PM »
Florida is the state with the second highest % of the population being senior citizens, what could possibly go wrong?

Right? I mean, my God, at least you'd think the Republicans should be trying to preserve their voting base.

And why are they so he’ll bent  on blocking voting by mail. 

DoubleDown

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #20 on: June 17, 2020, 07:30:51 PM »
As disturbing and alarming as all the new cases are to me, and seeing images of people behaving irresponsibly pisses me off, part of me at least feels like, "Good, get it over with, the more of you that act irresponsibly and get infected all at once while I hunker down, the quicker it's all over." Meaning, absent a vaccination or effective treatment, the more people that get infected and develop antibodies, the faster we get to herd immunity and things can get back to some level of normal.

I sort of agree, though would state it differently.

We were all for the initial lock down and are *very* strict about this, not out of fear for our own health, but for the sake of those around us. However, we are now on month 3 of shelter in place. We'll continue following the health rules, but this is not what we collectively agreed to. The idea was always, from the start, to flatten the curve and buy time. Time to learn more about the disease, to prepare the health system, to discover treatments and therapeutics. With the exception of a few hotspots, most of the US was successful in flattening the curve. Yay us!

We now know more about this virus, how it spreads, and we know that it's not as deadly as initially feared. Remember the early 5-8% estimates? Deadlier than influenza and still something to be taken seriously. But not as dire as feared when we knew almost nothing about it.

And we now have proven therapeutics, along with knowledge of simple things like putting the critically ill on their stomach to aid breathing.

And the health system has added ICU beds/ventilators and PPE.

Vaccines are in the works, but unlikely to be ready for some time.

Three months of is equivalent to 6 2-week incubation periods. If shelter in place/quarantine was going to squash this disease then it would have done so by now. It hasn't. So we're in this in-between state, better prepared than in March, but still dealing with community spread.

IMO, I would rather have a long simmering of COVID-19 (that flat curve we talked about 3 months ago), and build up some amount of immunity in the community before everyone heads indoors and the seasonal influenza season starts. This should be a strategy shift. Stress masks in public and keeping physical distance. Spend a lot more protecting those in nursing homes, and helping those who are most vulnerable to continue sheltering in place. But the economy needs to start opening up as much as possible. This is where the risk vs. reward discussion has to happen. And this is where different areas will make different decisions based on what industries drive the local economy. Turns out generating tax revenue is an important component of being able to fund things that are also critical to health and safety.

Agreed, good points all. Although from a purely selfish standpoint, I still wouldn't mind if a bunch of idiots want to infect themselves all at once, get it over with so they can't infect me in the future (through immunity hopefully, not death), and be done with it ;-)

Steeze

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #21 on: June 17, 2020, 07:42:02 PM »
Florida is the state with the second highest % of the population being senior citizens, what could possibly go wrong?
At least as of a couple weeks ago, nearly 50% of the COVID deaths in Florida occurred in nursing homes. It's horrifying.

What % of non Covid deaths occurred in nursing homes?

ixtap

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #22 on: June 17, 2020, 07:55:57 PM »
Florida is the state with the second highest % of the population being senior citizens, what could possibly go wrong?
At least as of a couple weeks ago, nearly 50% of the COVID deaths in Florida occurred in nursing homes. It's horrifying.

What % of non Covid deaths occurred in nursing homes?

Google says the answer to that is generally around 20%. However, I think for COVID, people were kept in nursing homes that might have normally been transported to a hospital and count as a hospital death.

Steeze

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #23 on: June 17, 2020, 08:03:20 PM »
Florida is the state with the second highest % of the population being senior citizens, what could possibly go wrong?
At least as of a couple weeks ago, nearly 50% of the COVID deaths in Florida occurred in nursing homes. It's horrifying.

What % of non Covid deaths occurred in nursing homes?

Google says the answer to that is generally around 20%. However, I think for COVID, people were kept in nursing homes that might have normally been transported to a hospital and count as a hospital death.

 I just read the same, about 20-25%. One study suggested by 2020 it would approach 40%.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3744590/
Seems like the data in both articles were from around 10 years ago or so.

Couldn’t fine anything specifically for Florida though, presumably it would be higher than the US average?

caffeine

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #24 on: June 17, 2020, 08:59:00 PM »
NURSING HOME/LONG TERM CARE COVID DEATHS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ETm51GayRjlnoaRVtUOWfkolEeAQZ-zPhXkCbVe4_ik/

StateData Reporting Statuslast updateLTC COVID DeathsState deaths on dateTotal Deaths Minus LTC DeathsLTC Share of COVID Deaths
New Jersey   Best data - daily - staff17-Jun6,46212,7696,30750.6%
New York   BAD data - daily - missing data17-Jun6,38724,62918,242   25.9%
Massachusetts   Best data - daily17-Jun4,8757,7342,85963.0%
Pennsylvania   Best data - Daily - staff17-Jun4,2796,3192,040   67.7%
Illinois   Best data - Fri12-Jun3,4336,2602,82754.8%
Connecticut   Best data - Thu10-Jun2,9974,1461,14972.3%
California   LA Times - data17-Jun2,6135,2712,65849.6%
Michigan   Best data - daily - staff17-Jun2,0085,7923,78434.7%
Maryland   Best data - Wed - staff17-Jun1,8302,8661,03663.9%
Ohio   Best data - Wed - staff10-Jun1,7452,45771271.0%
Florida   Best data - daily17-Jun1,5883,0181,43052.6%
Louisiana   Best data - Mon - staff15-Jun1,3683,0181,65045.3%
Georgia   Best data - daily - staff17-Jun1,1682,5751,40745.4%
Indiana   Best data - Mon   15-Jun1,0822,2511,16948.1%
Minnesota   Best data - daily17-Jun1,0511,32527479.3%
Texas   Best data - daily - staff17-Jun9532,0621,10946.2%
Virginia   Best data - daily17-Jun9051,58367857.2%
Colorado   Best data - Wed10-Jun8461,57372753.8%
Washington   Best data - Monday8-Jun7161,18546960.4%
North Carolina   Best data - daily17-Jun7041,16846460.3%
Rhode Island   Best data - Friday12-Jun66583316879.8%
Arizona   Maricopa/Mohave/Pima17-Jun51278427265.3%
Mississippi   Best data - daily - staff17-Jun47793846150.9%
Alabama   Media - USA Today17-Jun37578440947.8%
Iowa   *BAD data - daily17-Jun35067232252.1%
Kentucky   Best data - daily - staff17-Jun33251818664.1%
Missouri   CMS - thru May 3131-May31177246140.3%
Wisconsin   Best data - daily 17-Jun30171241142.3%
South Carolina   Best data - Tue/Fri - staff15-Jun293602   30948.7%
New Hampshire   Best data - daily17-Jun2733305782.7%
Delaware   Best data - Friday17-Jun27042615663.4%
Oklahoma   Best data - Friday - staff12-Jun19235716553.8%
New Mexico   Combined Media17-Jun17345227938.3%
DC   Best data - daily - staff17-Jun16052336330.6%
Tennessee   *BAD data - Friday5-Jun15540825338.0%
Kansas   Best data - Mon/Wed/Fri17-Jun13424711354.3%
Nevada   Best data - daily - staff17-Jun12847334527.1%
Nebraska   Media   15-Jun10022012045.5%
Oregon   Media - staff   12-Jun   921738153.2%
Arkansas   Media    13-Jun7717710043.5%
Utah   Best data - daily - staff 17-Jun631498642.3%
North Dakota   Best data - daily 17-Jun56741875.7%
Idaho   Best data - Fri12-Jun53833063.9%
Maine   Media   1-Jun50893956.2%
West Virginia   Best data - daily - staff17-Jun43884548.9%
Vermont   Best data - Fri - staff17-Jun28552750.9%
South Dakota   CMS - thru May 3131-May276235
Montana   Media - USA Today17-Jun7201035.0%
Wyoming   Media17-Jun4181422.2%
Alaska   Media17-Jun21210
Hawaii   Media17-Jun
         

caffeine

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #25 on: June 17, 2020, 09:05:37 PM »
States are hitting their epidemic curve at different times, which is to be expected in a country as big as the US. Hot spots have shifted around as states are in different points in epidemic. Texas, Florida, and Arizona never really had a first wave.

In terms of protecting the most vulnerable, Florida seems to actually be the leader in protecting LTC facilities.

https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/number-of-nursing-facility-residents/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Number%20of%20Nursing%20Facility%20Residents%22,%22sort%22:%22desc%22%7D

As of 2017, Florida had the 6th most residents in LTC facilities.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2020, 09:37:10 PM by caffeine »

Jack0Life

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #26 on: June 17, 2020, 11:35:01 PM »
I don't know about other states but I see too many idiots walking around inside facilities without wearing masks.
Ikea re-open long after everyone else and what did they do ?? Let everyone inside and ZERO social distancing and only 50% wearing masks. A recipe for disaster. I got out of there quick.

Luke Warm

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #27 on: June 18, 2020, 08:01:17 AM »
i saw a person yesterday driving in their car wearing a mask and texting. that probably happens everywhere but it pretty much sums up florida for me.

dividendman

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #28 on: June 18, 2020, 10:32:53 AM »
Florida is the state with the second highest % of the population being senior citizens, what could possibly go wrong?
At least as of a couple weeks ago, nearly 50% of the COVID deaths in Florida occurred in nursing homes. It's horrifying.

Why is that horrifying?  Isn’t it exactly as expected?  Except maybe a little low?

Also, maybe an unpopular opinion, but if I’m ever in a nursing home, don’t fight to keep me alive, I’d rather just go.
Waiting, essentially captive, for a disease to suffocate you to death? At the same time you are completely cut off from outside visitors which are likely your last source of comfort on earth? You can't see why that's horrifying?

Which group would you rather be dying from the disease?  People who have lived a long life, orrrr?

This comment seems to imply that if we sacrifice the old the young will be spared, that's not the case. We could save both, or at least limit the death in both groups.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #29 on: June 18, 2020, 10:38:22 AM »
Florida is the state with the second highest % of the population being senior citizens, what could possibly go wrong?
At least as of a couple weeks ago, nearly 50% of the COVID deaths in Florida occurred in nursing homes. It's horrifying.

Why is that horrifying?  Isn’t it exactly as expected?  Except maybe a little low?

Also, maybe an unpopular opinion, but if I’m ever in a nursing home, don’t fight to keep me alive, I’d rather just go.
Waiting, essentially captive, for a disease to suffocate you to death? At the same time you are completely cut off from outside visitors which are likely your last source of comfort on earth? You can't see why that's horrifying?

Which group would you rather be dying from the disease?  People who have lived a long life, orrrr?

This comment seems to imply that if we sacrifice the old the young will be spared, that's not the case. We could save both, or at least limit the death in both groups.

Exactly. We've had young healthy people in their 20s and 30s get very sick, and some have died.

Jack0Life

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #30 on: June 19, 2020, 09:46:53 AM »
The great state of Florida just reported another record day today. 3800 new cases.
Ours stupid governor won't take action. At least some of the local mayors are taking actions.


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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #31 on: June 19, 2020, 01:02:15 PM »
Florida is the state with the second highest % of the population being senior citizens, what could possibly go wrong?
At least as of a couple weeks ago, nearly 50% of the COVID deaths in Florida occurred in nursing homes. It's horrifying.

Why is that horrifying?  Isn’t it exactly as expected?  Except maybe a little low?

Also, maybe an unpopular opinion, but if I’m ever in a nursing home, don’t fight to keep me alive, I’d rather just go.
Waiting, essentially captive, for a disease to suffocate you to death? At the same time you are completely cut off from outside visitors which are likely your last source of comfort on earth? You can't see why that's horrifying?

Which group would you rather be dying from the disease?  People who have lived a long life, orrrr?

This comment seems to imply that if we sacrifice the old the young will be spared, that's not the case. We could save both, or at least limit the death in both groups.

No. At least that’s not how it was intended. It was a reaction to the OP saying how 50% of the deaths were in nursing homes, and that was particularly horrifying.

In my opinion, callous as it may sound, if you are going to have deaths from an illness, then the best people to die are those who are near death, lived a long life, etc, already.

Horrifying would be if 50% of deaths were children, or young parents, or something like that.

Again, it’s not about sacrificing old people, I just found the “horrifying when old people die” comment odd. 

bacchi

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #32 on: June 19, 2020, 02:40:58 PM »
In my opinion, callous as it may sound, if you are going to have deaths from an illness, then the best people to die are those who are near death, lived a long life, etc, already.

Imo, callous as it may sound, if you are going to have deaths from an illness, then the best people to die are those who disregard all advice about masks and social distancing and, say, attend a packed, indoor, arena for an event in a state with increasing covid cases.

You can lead a horse to water and all that.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #33 on: June 19, 2020, 04:21:30 PM »
In my opinion, callous as it may sound, if you are going to have deaths from an illness, then the best people to die are those who are near death, lived a long life, etc, already.

Imo, callous as it may sound, if you are going to have deaths from an illness, then the best people to die are those who disregard all advice about masks and social distancing and, say, attend a packed, indoor, arena for an event in a state with increasing covid cases.

You can lead a horse to water and all that.

And think of all the eligibility for Darwin Awards.

JGS1980

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #34 on: June 19, 2020, 07:00:45 PM »
As for Darwin Awards, can we PLEEEAAAAASSSSSEEEE have some benevolent hacker get the list of all the attendees to the Tulsa Rally, and track who does and who does not get Covid19 at the rally. Pretty Please? I imagine every reporter in the USA wants that story.....

scottish

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #35 on: June 20, 2020, 09:54:42 AM »
Pass that on to the NSA, I'm sure they can figure it out.

Chris22

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #36 on: June 20, 2020, 10:58:54 AM »
Florida is the state with the second highest % of the population being senior citizens, what could possibly go wrong?
At least as of a couple weeks ago, nearly 50% of the COVID deaths in Florida occurred in nursing homes. It's horrifying.

Why is that horrifying?  Isn’t it exactly as expected?  Except maybe a little low?

Also, maybe an unpopular opinion, but if I’m ever in a nursing home, don’t fight to keep me alive, I’d rather just go.
Waiting, essentially captive, for a disease to suffocate you to death? At the same time you are completely cut off from outside visitors which are likely your last source of comfort on earth? You can't see why that's horrifying?

Which group would you rather be dying from the disease?  People who have lived a long life, orrrr?

This comment seems to imply that if we sacrifice the old the young will be spared, that's not the case. We could save both, or at least limit the death in both groups.

No. At least that’s not how it was intended. It was a reaction to the OP saying how 50% of the deaths were in nursing homes, and that was particularly horrifying.

In my opinion, callous as it may sound, if you are going to have deaths from an illness, then the best people to die are those who are near death, lived a long life, etc, already.

Horrifying would be if 50% of deaths were children, or young parents, or something like that.

Again, it’s not about sacrificing old people, I just found the “horrifying when old people die” comment odd.
And where do you think that other 50% are coming from?

People over 60 who aren’t in a nursing home.

In my town of 75k people we have the following:

Quote
According to the medical examiner, the age breakdown for the 31 deaths are: 80+ (19), 70-79 (10) and 60-69 (2)

https://patch.com/illinois/arlingtonheights/31-total-coronavirus-deaths-confirmed-arlington-heights

LifeHappens

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #37 on: June 20, 2020, 01:11:17 PM »
Yesterday Florida posted 4049 new cases, with a positive test rate over 12% https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/06/20/florida-logs-another-4000-plus-day-as-state-approaches-94000-coronavirus-infections/

But the governor says it's cool because the people getting infected are "overwhelmingly Hispanic" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/20/coronavirus-republican-governors-blame-florida-texas-arizona

JGS1980

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #38 on: June 20, 2020, 04:15:30 PM »
Who pick watermelons

caffeine

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #39 on: June 21, 2020, 09:50:54 AM »
How long would Florida have to spike to face to be disasters like New York or New Jersey?

For context as of June 19th, death rates per 100k:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

New York - 159
New Jersey - 145
Michigan - 61
...
Florida - 14


% of nursing home residents killed by COVID:

New Jersey - 12%
New York - 6%
Michigan - 5%
...
Florida - 1.6%

« Last Edit: June 22, 2020, 07:23:00 AM by caffeine »

bacchi

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #40 on: June 21, 2020, 11:08:40 AM »
In Florida last week, the median age of new cases was 37. The national median age of infected is 48 through May 30th.

How often will these 20 and 30 somethings end up in the hospital?

Even if that's a low rate, will enough of them get it to overwhelm the hospitals anyway?

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #41 on: June 21, 2020, 12:02:33 PM »
In Florida last week, the median age of new cases was 37. The national median age of infected is 48 through May 30th.

How often will these 20 and 30 somethings end up in the hospital?

Even if that's a low rate, will enough of them get it to overwhelm the hospitals anyway?
According to the latest state update I can find, 4.7% of confirmed cases in those <45 years old result in hospitalization. For those >=45, the number is 23.1% (see table below). Of course, as is the case everywhere, confirmed cases massively under-count actual infections, particularly in younger/healthier groups where asympotmatic illness is more prevlant. Based on the crude FL serology results suggesting ~4% cumulative infections, actual infections to date might be ~10x the cumulative confirmed case count.

Assuming actual infections are closer to 900K rather than 90K, the FL observed CFR of 3.3% would correspond to an IFR of 0.33%, which would be in-line with the CDC's base-case IFR estimate as stated here (see Scenario 5). Massive caveats, of course, given the uncertainty on the details of the FL serology testing accuracy. Using the same conversion factor for hospitalizations, that rate would be ~0.5% in those <45 years old. If FL were to have 50% of ~10M people in the <45 age group be infected over the next 10 weeks (probably could agree this is worst case!) and average hospital stay is 1 week, that would be 0.1*0.005*5M = 2,500 additional people hospitalized at any given moment over that period of time. What i don't know is the % hospitalized that require ICU treatment, but assuming it's 20%, that would require 500 ICU beds at any moment. FL currently has ~1,400 open ICU beds. For non-ICU hospitalization, as we saw in NYC, it's possible to build make-shift capacity on the fly.

By itself, people <45 years old will not overflow FL ICU capacity, though that risk, of course, exists considering all ages. One of the few things that is clear about all of this is how hard it is to get good information, especially when google results favor unstructured newspaper articles written by (frequently) innumerate journalists who are trying to push some sort of emotional narrative rather than anything quantitative and actionable.

dougules

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #42 on: June 22, 2020, 10:36:50 AM »
How long would Florida have to spike to face to be disasters like New York or New Jersey?

For context as of June 19th, death rates per 100k:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

New York - 159
New Jersey - 145
Michigan - 61
...
Florida - 14


% of nursing home residents killed by COVID:

New Jersey - 12%
New York - 6%
Michigan - 5%
...
Florida - 1.6%

Rough guess from the past week about 6 weeks more.  The math is exponential, so it's easy for things to get out of hand quickly. 

HPstache

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #43 on: June 22, 2020, 11:09:40 AM »
Florida is the state with the second highest % of the population being senior citizens, what could possibly go wrong?
At least as of a couple weeks ago, nearly 50% of the COVID deaths in Florida occurred in nursing homes. It's horrifying.

Why is that horrifying?  Isn’t it exactly as expected?  Except maybe a little low?

Also, maybe an unpopular opinion, but if I’m ever in a nursing home, don’t fight to keep me alive, I’d rather just go.
Waiting, essentially captive, for a disease to suffocate you to death? At the same time you are completely cut off from outside visitors which are likely your last source of comfort on earth? You can't see why that's horrifying?

Which group would you rather be dying from the disease?  People who have lived a long life, orrrr?

This comment seems to imply that if we sacrifice the old the young will be spared, that's not the case. We could save both, or at least limit the death in both groups.

No. At least that’s not how it was intended. It was a reaction to the OP saying how 50% of the deaths were in nursing homes, and that was particularly horrifying.

In my opinion, callous as it may sound, if you are going to have deaths from an illness, then the best people to die are those who are near death, lived a long life, etc, already.

Horrifying would be if 50% of deaths were children, or young parents, or something like that.

Again, it’s not about sacrificing old people, I just found the “horrifying when old people die” comment odd.
And where do you think that other 50% are coming from?

People over 60 who aren’t in a nursing home.

In my town of 75k people we have the following:

Quote
According to the medical examiner, the age breakdown for the 31 deaths are: 80+ (19), 70-79 (10) and 60-69 (2)

https://patch.com/illinois/arlingtonheights/31-total-coronavirus-deaths-confirmed-arlington-heights
Im in Calif and we have a higher number of deaths so a bit more varied but yeah.old people are the highest. But of course that doesn't include people who are very ill or suffer long term disability. Death isn't (or shouldn't be imho) the only metric. That's like saying no war veterans who suffered loss of limbs, brain injuries, and other terrible life long disabities were impacted by their time in the military because they aren't part of the death statistics.

https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/COVID-19-Cases-by-Age-Group.aspx

I'm not sure... I think death pretty much is the only really important metric.  If we really are concerned about people getting sick from infections then buckle up for every flu season, 10's of millions get that US almost every year.  Before anyone says it... I am NOT saying COVID-19 is the flu.  I am just saying that we care so much about COVID-19 because of it's potential to kill, then if someone says death shouldn't be the only metric, it's right there with any other contagious virus that spreads like wild fire on any given year.  And YES I know that people are saying that there may be permanent lung damage from COVID-19, but there is also permanent lung damage from pneumonia as a result of the flu... which not everyone gets, just like not everyone is going to get permanent damage from COVID-19.

ixtap

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #44 on: June 22, 2020, 11:27:10 AM »
I think current hospitalizations are just as important in determining severity as deaths, because hospitalizations use up a lot of our resources.

I think total cases are important only once they have been correlated with hospitalizations and deaths.

JGS1980

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #45 on: June 22, 2020, 12:59:16 PM »
I think current hospitalizations are just as important in determining severity as deaths, because hospitalizations use up a lot of our resources.

I think total cases are important only once they have been correlated with hospitalizations and deaths.

I agree. The rise in cases is just the canary in the coal mine.

We've seen multiple times already across the US what happens.

1st -> exponential rise in cases
2nd (about 7-21 days later) -> rise in hospitalizations
3rd (about 14-35 days later) -> rise in deaths

In Florida (and Arizona, and Texas), we are in the increased hospitalization stage already. We'll see if deaths follow again this time in the next 2-4 weeks.

https://tallahasseereports.com/2020/06/18/two-charts-show-positive-trends-for-florida-in-coronavirus-battle/

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #46 on: June 22, 2020, 12:59:31 PM »
I am older and feel the same way as Chris. Once you are in a nursing home that’s not living and death would be welcome. Sad to die alone though.

FINate

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #47 on: June 24, 2020, 02:18:27 PM »
The attached image is from Santa Cruz, CA over Father's Day weekend. The beaches are technically closed, but it's not being enforced.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #48 on: June 24, 2020, 02:32:47 PM »
In Florida last week, the median age of new cases was 37. The national median age of infected is 48 through May 30th.

How often will these 20 and 30 somethings end up in the hospital?

Even if that's a low rate, will enough of them get it to overwhelm the hospitals anyway?


Assuming actual infections are closer to 900K rather than 90K, the FL observed CFR of 3.3% would correspond to an IFR of 0.33%, which would be in-line with the CDC's base-case IFR estimate as stated here (see Scenario 5). Massive caveats, of course, given the uncertainty on the details of the FL serology testing accuracy. Using the same conversion factor for hospitalizations, that rate would be ~0.5% in those <45 years old. If FL were to have 50% of ~10M people in the <45 age group be infected over the next 10 weeks (probably could agree this is worst case!) and average hospital stay is 1 week, that would be 0.1*0.005*5M = 2,500 additional people hospitalized at any given moment over that period of time. What i don't know is the % hospitalized that require ICU treatment, but assuming it's 20%, that would require 500 ICU beds at any moment. FL currently has ~1,400 open ICU beds. For non-ICU hospitalization, as we saw in NYC, it's possible to build make-shift capacity on the fly.

I guess I shouldn't be surprised that the CDC still hasn't updated that page with newer data. It's still based on numbers from March.

§ Estimates only include onset dates between March 1, 2020 – March 31, 2020 to ensure cases have had sufficient time to observe the outcome (hospital admission or death).
¶ Estimates only include hospital admission dates between March 1, 2020 – March 31, 2020 to ensure cases have had sufficient time to observe the outcome (hospital discharge or death).
** Estimates only include death dates between March 1, 2020 – March 31, 2020 to ensure sufficient time for reporting.

dividendman

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Re: Oh, Florida!!! Covid19 Response
« Reply #49 on: June 24, 2020, 02:33:27 PM »
Yeah, stupidity isn't limited to Florida. I think the cat is out of the bag now. All of the other western democracies have their case rates declining, only the USA is going up (source: google "covid 19 cases" and flip through the various countries).

I think i'ts clear that the american population just isn't willing to change their lifestyle for this disease (even to just put on a mask) for any more time or in enough numbers to contain the disease.

So.... yup, we're fucked. I think that Americans will likely be banned from leaving their own country for some time as other countries won't want citizens entering from countries that are in much worse shape (https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/23/politics/eu-us-coronavirus-travel/index.htm), they will also likely restrict travel to the US for a much longer time.

That's one way to keep immigrants out of the US (and americans out of everywhere else), just make it a cesspool.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!