Author Topic: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back  (Read 2545 times)

PDXTabs

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roomtempmayo

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #1 on: July 16, 2021, 11:27:07 AM »
Emily Badger had a parallel piece the other day in the NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/12/upshot/covid-cities-predictions-wrong.html

Here's a bit:

Quote
From the moment U.S. coronavirus cases emerged in the Seattle area and then devastated New York City last spring, sweeping predictions about the future of city life followed. Density was done for. An exodus to the suburbs and small towns would ensue. Transit would become obsolete. The appeal of a yard and a home office would trump demand for bustling urban spaces. And Zoom would replace the in-person connections that give big cities their economic might.

The pandemic promised nothing short of the End of Cities, a prophecy foretold by pundits, tweets and headlines, at times with unveiled schadenfreude.

If the past year has laid bare many underlying forces in society, this was another one: a deep-rooted discomfort — suspicion, even — about urban life in America. But now city sidewalks are returning to life, pandemic migration patterns have become clearer, and researchers have dispelled early fears that density is a primary driver of Covid-19. So it is perhaps a good time to ask: What is so alluring about the perpetually imminent End of Cities?

Why won’t that idea itself die?

[...]

“We have to ask, who is telling the story, and how do they benefit if it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy?” Professor Carr said.

“Cities are over,” in other words, is a convenient conclusion if you have decided they are over for you. Or if you believe the pandemic proved wrong all the economists and urbanists who’ve been preaching the virtue of density.

Sibley

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #2 on: July 16, 2021, 11:34:47 AM »
Its kinda hard to argue with the long term success of cities. There are literally thousands of years of history which indicate that cities are going to happen, good bad and ugly.

I think the factor more likely to change cities long term is reduction in office spaces. Long term, I suspect that companies will adopt/be forced to adopt a more flexible working style, which would require smaller footprints. It's not cost effective to maintain a desk for 200 people when each may be in the office only 1-2 days a week. It's not going to happen overnight but I bet in 10 years some of the big office buildings will be converted/in conversion process to other uses, especially residential.

dougules

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #3 on: July 16, 2021, 11:52:17 AM »
Yes people were getting ahead of themselves on drawing conclusions about new migration patterns during the pandemic.  Let's see what the world looks like in 2023 or 2024 before we go calling trends. 

On the second article, what was the conclusion on who was pushing the end of cities narrative?  It's behind a pay wall.  There are plenty of people here who are quick to pick up any scrap of evidence to back up their belief that California and New York are going to fail. 

roomtempmayo

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2021, 12:07:59 PM »
I think the factor more likely to change cities long term is reduction in office spaces. Long term, I suspect that companies will adopt/be forced to adopt a more flexible working style, which would require smaller footprints. It's not cost effective to maintain a desk for 200 people when each may be in the office only 1-2 days a week. It's not going to happen overnight but I bet in 10 years some of the big office buildings will be converted/in conversion process to other uses, especially residential.

Yes, I don't think the issue is really whether cities will continue to be the economic engines of the country, but more about what metro areas will look like in 25 or 50 years.

I know a bunch of people who still need to be in-person occasionally, but fewer than five days a week.  They're not totally untethered and can't move to Sun Valley, but commuting is now less onerous because it's less frequent.  The disincentives for living further from the office are reduced, while the incentives are potentially increased by being able to cluster with your tribe in a new development and/or exclusive school.

Couple the reduction in commuting frequency with other commuting cost reductions on the horizon (EVs, potentially self-driving vehicles) and it sure seems like a recipe for turning the edges of metro regions into endless hellscapes of sprawl.  Metro areas could expand their footprints exponentially and the environmental consequences would be awful.

We've never had an appetite for greenbelts in the US (I suppose they're anti-manifest destiny), but developing a national greenbelt policy might be the most far-looking environmental policy we could implement right now.  It's the closest thing the early 21st Century could come to starting the national parks.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2021, 09:44:27 PM by caleb »

GodlessCommie

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2021, 12:09:20 PM »
I was wondering how it would work out for people who moved from NYC to Montana, sight unseen.

Or any other similar move.

WhiteTrashCash

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #6 on: July 16, 2021, 12:09:25 PM »
I don't really understand why so many tech companies are in the Bay Area. They can do their business from anywhere since they are basically companies run in cyberspace, so why not relocate to Alabama and pay pennies on the dollar for services? I would do that if I had a tech company.

GodlessCommie

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #7 on: July 16, 2021, 12:11:31 PM »
I don't really understand why so many tech companies are in the Bay Area. They can do their business from anywhere since they are basically companies run in cyberspace, so why not relocate to Alabama and pay pennies on the dollar for services? I would do that if I had a tech company.

I also don't understand this. I think this is part of the reason why I'm not a tech gazillionare. Chances that they all are wrong and rich, and I'm right and poor (compared to them) are slim.

dougules

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #8 on: July 16, 2021, 12:46:34 PM »
I don't really understand why so many tech companies are in the Bay Area. They can do their business from anywhere since they are basically companies run in cyberspace, so why not relocate to Alabama and pay pennies on the dollar for services? I would do that if I had a tech company.

If they're totally online, then there's no reason to move anywhere other than maybe taxes. 

If they aren't completely remote work, they have to go where the talent pool is.  There are tech companies here in Alabama, but pre-2020 the opportunities were much more diverse in the Bay Area for tech workers, so it made sense to be there.  Also plenty of tech workers may not want to live in Alabama.  My best friend from high school is a programmer in the Bay Area, and he'd never move back here.

PDXTabs

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #9 on: July 16, 2021, 12:53:24 PM »
Its kinda hard to argue with the long term success of cities.

Cities are great, but they bay area is sort of its own kind of expensive dystopian sprawl.

dougules

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #10 on: July 16, 2021, 12:58:19 PM »
Its kinda hard to argue with the long term success of cities.

Cities are great, but they bay area is sort of its own kind of expensive dystopian sprawl.

It depends on where.  South Bay is the worst of both worlds.  San Francisco and Berkeley are nice if you're wealthy enough a few million dollars isn't a big deal (and there are a decent number there for which that is true). 

FINate

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #11 on: July 16, 2021, 01:06:25 PM »
Yep, tech companies go where the talent is, and there's a lot of talent in the Bay Area and there will be for a long time. But it's an outdated belief that the Bay Area is the only option out there. There are a ton of great cities with lower cost of living, less traffic, better schools, and less crime across the US. Places with a decent climate (albeit not as mild), access to the great outdoors, terrific restaurants, farmers markets, and so on. Even before the pandemic tech was moving jobs and operations to other locations, very often quietly. Austin, Denver, and Reno come to mind.

There was no "mass exodus" out of California, but the pandemic accelerated an existing trend of people leaving the state -- did we already forget that CA lost a seat in the US House of Representatives? And as should be expected, some people are moving back to SF after escaping to some exotic (to them) location for a year while the city was locked down. But I don't expect they'll all come rushing back. In the meantime, Silicon Valley still has the long-simmering problem that a majority of residents are dissatisfied and looking elsewhere.

PDXTabs

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #12 on: July 16, 2021, 04:19:48 PM »
Its kinda hard to argue with the long term success of cities.

Cities are great, but they bay area is sort of its own kind of expensive dystopian sprawl.

It depends on where.  South Bay is the worst of both worlds.  San Francisco and Berkeley are nice if you're wealthy enough a few million dollars isn't a big deal (and there are a decent number there for which that is true).

I'm not sure that counts. Needing millions of dollars to live a normal life seems pretty dystopian to me.

MilesTeg

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #13 on: July 17, 2021, 11:38:29 AM »
Yeah, no. Long term nothing is going to change.

Right now workers have some leverage due to special circumstances. It's only the high earners/high value people that are driving any real push for liberation from the office grind.

But the instant there is a downturn companies are going to leverage that to get all the worker back in line with management's desires.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2021, 11:42:46 AM by MilesTeg »

seattlecyclone

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #14 on: July 17, 2021, 04:47:22 PM »
There was no "mass exodus" out of California, but the pandemic accelerated an existing trend of people leaving the state -- did we already forget that CA lost a seat in the US House of Representatives?

California's population increased by more than 2 million people between 2010 and 2020. That's a 6% increase, and resulted in a lost seat because it was slightly less than the country's overall 7% growth rate. I think it's safe to say this growth rate would have been much higher if it had not been for the state's completely backwards policies around housing production and property taxation that have caused prices to rise to levels that most people can't afford.

FINate

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #15 on: July 17, 2021, 05:23:29 PM »
There was no "mass exodus" out of California, but the pandemic accelerated an existing trend of people leaving the state -- did we already forget that CA lost a seat in the US House of Representatives?

California's population increased by more than 2 million people between 2010 and 2020. That's a 6% increase, and resulted in a lost seat because it was slightly less than the country's overall 7% growth rate. I think it's safe to say this growth rate would have been much higher if it had not been for the state's completely backwards policies around housing production and property taxation that have caused prices to rise to levels that most people can't afford.

California's population declined in absolute terms in 2020. This is the first time this has happened since 1900 when they started tracking this stat. It's something state leaders should be less blasé about. Agree, terrible housing policy is largely to blame. https://calmatters.org/politics/2021/05/california-population-shrink-exodus/

Dicey

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #16 on: July 17, 2021, 05:37:02 PM »
I don't really understand why so many tech companies are in the Bay Area. They can do their business from anywhere since they are basically companies run in cyberspace, so why not relocate to Alabama and pay pennies on the dollar for services? I would do that if I had a tech company.
Because then they would be in...Alabama.

Abe

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #17 on: July 17, 2021, 06:31:42 PM »
The first Silicon Valley tech company to move to Alabama will be the first to lose top talent to ones that stay put. People aren’t going to be jerked around like that if they have options. Hence the incentive to stay put. If things work out for Tesla, that may change (but Austin is quite different from Alabama). in addition, during a downturn would be the best time to move the company (can justify due to budget cuts, and people won’t want to risk their job).

bacchi

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #18 on: July 17, 2021, 06:38:18 PM »
The first Silicon Valley tech company to move to Alabama will be the first to lose top talent to ones that stay put. People aren’t going to be jerked around like that if they have options. Hence the incentive to stay put. If things work out for Tesla, that may change (but Austin is quite different from Alabama). in addition, during a downturn would be the best time to move the company (can justify due to budget cuts, and people won’t want to risk their job).

Montgomery is a not a bad city (and it voted handily for Biden), other than the weather. There's of course a perception problem. Ask any Gen Zer to choose between Montgomery or Austin or the Bay Area and Montgomery would be last, by far.

FINate

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #19 on: July 17, 2021, 06:40:45 PM »
Office locations are not mutually exclusive. A tech company can have offices in Silicon Valley as well as other locations, including Alabama. Believe it or not, some tech workers actually prefer Alabama and other places Californians think are terrible. I know a brilliant software engineer that decided he'd rather live in Michigan than the Bay Area. Family there, and he likes the climate.

Companies that branch out to multiple locations will steal employees from those that insist on everyone being located in Silicon Valley.

Travis

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #20 on: July 17, 2021, 06:59:50 PM »
The first late-20th century tech companies started in the SF area because that's where the founders were from. Standford University is there and NASA has a massive laboratory.  Also the weather is awesome.  NASA has always had a strong presence Alabama as well and the powers that be are seriously considering moving Space Command down there from Colorado. If that happens you'll see some migration.

Abe

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #21 on: July 17, 2021, 07:13:04 PM »
I kind of assumed the companies have offices at various locations, but their HQs are in Silicon Valley? I agree if They are that centralized it limits growth to some extent.

FINate

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #22 on: July 17, 2021, 07:21:16 PM »
The smart ones open offices wherever there's a pool of talent to tap. This means the bigger tech companies already have engineers scattered around the world. Many have their HQ in SV, but the HQ is relatively easy to change while leaving an engineering office behind. However, HQ location is mostly a function of where founders/execs want to live, so I don't foresee a large number of HQs leaving...CA and the Bay Area are quite livable for the ultra wealthy.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2021, 07:26:26 PM by FINate »

Dicey

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #23 on: July 18, 2021, 01:51:30 AM »
The smart ones open offices wherever there's a pool of talent to tap. This means the bigger tech companies already have engineers scattered around the world. Many have their HQ in SV, but the HQ is relatively easy to change while leaving an engineering office behind. However, HQ location is mostly a function of where founders/execs want to live, so I don't foresee a large number of HQs leaving...CA and the Bay Area are quite livable for the ultra wealthy.
I may be FIRE, but I'm not ultra wealthy. I've lived in CA my whole life and the Bay Area for 30+ years. I was never a high wage earner, yet I managed to do just fine here. Quite liveable indeed.

bacchi

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #24 on: July 18, 2021, 08:04:52 AM »
Office locations are not mutually exclusive. A tech company can have offices in Silicon Valley as well as other locations, including Alabama. Believe it or not, some tech workers actually prefer Alabama and other places Californians think are terrible. I know a brilliant software engineer that decided he'd rather live in Michigan than the Bay Area. Family there, and he likes the climate.

Companies that branch out to multiple locations will steal employees from those that insist on everyone being located in Silicon Valley.

Yet the tech companies aren't rushing to open offices in Grand Rapids or Huntsville. Denver and Nashville, sure, but the wealth of talent just isn't there in a small/mid-sized city not known for its university or culture.

FINate

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #25 on: July 18, 2021, 10:14:14 AM »
The smart ones open offices wherever there's a pool of talent to tap. This means the bigger tech companies already have engineers scattered around the world. Many have their HQ in SV, but the HQ is relatively easy to change while leaving an engineering office behind. However, HQ location is mostly a function of where founders/execs want to live, so I don't foresee a large number of HQs leaving...CA and the Bay Area are quite livable for the ultra wealthy.
I may be FIRE, but I'm not ultra wealthy. I've lived in CA my whole life and the Bay Area for 30+ years. I was never a high wage earner, yet I managed to do just fine here. Quite liveable indeed.

Sure, it can be done. Especially for those who got on the real estate ladder before prices went totally nuts. I'm wealthy (not ultra-wealthy) and that's how we lived comfortably in the Bay Area, having purchased our first house in the early 2000s. But for most people w/o RE holdings, with modest jobs and no family money to fall back on, it's extremely difficult.

Dicey

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #26 on: July 18, 2021, 10:18:53 AM »
The smart ones open offices wherever there's a pool of talent to tap. This means the bigger tech companies already have engineers scattered around the world. Many have their HQ in SV, but the HQ is relatively easy to change while leaving an engineering office behind. However, HQ location is mostly a function of where founders/execs want to live, so I don't foresee a large number of HQs leaving...CA and the Bay Area are quite livable for the ultra wealthy.
I may be FIRE, but I'm not ultra wealthy. I've lived in CA my whole life and the Bay Area for 30+ years. I was never a high wage earner, yet I managed to do just fine here. Quite liveable indeed.

Sure, it can be done. Especially for those who got on the real estate ladder before prices went totally nuts. I'm wealthy (not ultra-wealthy) and that's how we lived comfortably in the Bay Area, having purchased our first house in the early 2000s. But for most people w/o RE holdings, with modest jobs and no family money to fall back on, it's extremely difficult.
Some of us even did it with modest jobs and without family money.

ender

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #27 on: July 18, 2021, 10:19:34 AM »
Office locations are not mutually exclusive. A tech company can have offices in Silicon Valley as well as other locations, including Alabama. Believe it or not, some tech workers actually prefer Alabama and other places Californians think are terrible. I know a brilliant software engineer that decided he'd rather live in Michigan than the Bay Area. Family there, and he likes the climate.

Companies that branch out to multiple locations will steal employees from those that insist on everyone being located in Silicon Valley.

Yet the tech companies aren't rushing to open offices in Grand Rapids or Huntsville. Denver and Nashville, sure, but the wealth of talent just isn't there in a small/mid-sized city not known for its university or culture.

Plenty of tech companies are opening offices in other cities though.



The smart ones open offices wherever there's a pool of talent to tap. This means the bigger tech companies already have engineers scattered around the world. Many have their HQ in SV, but the HQ is relatively easy to change while leaving an engineering office behind. However, HQ location is mostly a function of where founders/execs want to live, so I don't foresee a large number of HQs leaving...CA and the Bay Area are quite livable for the ultra wealthy.
I may be FIRE, but I'm not ultra wealthy. I've lived in CA my whole life and the Bay Area for 30+ years. I was never a high wage earner, yet I managed to do just fine here. Quite liveable indeed.

Sure, it can be done. Especially for those who got on the real estate ladder before prices went totally nuts. I'm wealthy (not ultra-wealthy) and that's how we lived comfortably in the Bay Area, having purchased our first house in the early 2000s. But for most people w/o RE holdings, with modest jobs and no family money to fall back on, it's extremely difficult.
Some of us even did it with modest jobs and without family money.

Do you think it'd be possible to do today on a modest income?

FINate

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #28 on: July 18, 2021, 10:21:38 AM »
Office locations are not mutually exclusive. A tech company can have offices in Silicon Valley as well as other locations, including Alabama. Believe it or not, some tech workers actually prefer Alabama and other places Californians think are terrible. I know a brilliant software engineer that decided he'd rather live in Michigan than the Bay Area. Family there, and he likes the climate.

Companies that branch out to multiple locations will steal employees from those that insist on everyone being located in Silicon Valley.

Yet the tech companies aren't rushing to open offices in Grand Rapids or Huntsville. Denver and Nashville, sure, but the wealth of talent just isn't there in a small/mid-sized city not known for its university or culture.

Agreed. There has to be a critical mass of talent first. Seattle is already there, as is Austin. Denver/Boulder is close behind. Reno is steadily and quietly expanding its tech industry, which also has the advantage of proximity to VC in SV. SLC and then Boise are a little further behind, but growing.

These areas also have the advantage of a much lower burn rate for startups, which is the real threat to SV's dominance. So far it's a trickle, but things can change quickly.

Dicey

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #29 on: July 18, 2021, 10:31:50 AM »

The smart ones open offices wherever there's a pool of talent to tap. This means the bigger tech companies already have engineers scattered around the world. Many have their HQ in SV, but the HQ is relatively easy to change while leaving an engineering office behind. However, HQ location is mostly a function of where founders/execs want to live, so I don't foresee a large number of HQs leaving...CA and the Bay Area are quite livable for the ultra wealthy.
I may be FIRE, but I'm not ultra wealthy. I've lived in CA my whole life and the Bay Area for 30+ years. I was never a high wage earner, yet I managed to do just fine here. Quite liveable indeed.

Sure, it can be done. Especially for those who got on the real estate ladder before prices went totally nuts. I'm wealthy (not ultra-wealthy) and that's how we lived comfortably in the Bay Area, having purchased our first house in the early 2000s. But for most people w/o RE holdings, with modest jobs and no family money to fall back on, it's extremely difficult.
Some of us even did it with modest jobs and without family money.

Do you think it'd be possible to do today on a modest income?
If you want it enough and are willing to make the necessary sacrifices. Oh, and I forgot. I did get an inheritance that helped me pull the trigger on my first property. My grandfather left me $6,000, and I was grateful for every penny of it.

dang1

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #30 on: July 18, 2021, 02:25:29 PM »
San Francisco Bay Area could really do with less people, especially really wealthy people. In general, less crowds, less traffic, etc.  Livable area's pretty much built up, surrounded by fire-prone areas, less water available, etc. The really wealthy making housing unaffordable for the rest, more income mix population is better.

FINate

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #31 on: July 18, 2021, 03:16:26 PM »

The smart ones open offices wherever there's a pool of talent to tap. This means the bigger tech companies already have engineers scattered around the world. Many have their HQ in SV, but the HQ is relatively easy to change while leaving an engineering office behind. However, HQ location is mostly a function of where founders/execs want to live, so I don't foresee a large number of HQs leaving...CA and the Bay Area are quite livable for the ultra wealthy.
I may be FIRE, but I'm not ultra wealthy. I've lived in CA my whole life and the Bay Area for 30+ years. I was never a high wage earner, yet I managed to do just fine here. Quite liveable indeed.

Sure, it can be done. Especially for those who got on the real estate ladder before prices went totally nuts. I'm wealthy (not ultra-wealthy) and that's how we lived comfortably in the Bay Area, having purchased our first house in the early 2000s. But for most people w/o RE holdings, with modest jobs and no family money to fall back on, it's extremely difficult.
Some of us even did it with modest jobs and without family money.

Do you think it'd be possible to do today on a modest income?
If you want it enough and are willing to make the necessary sacrifices. Oh, and I forgot. I did get an inheritance that helped me pull the trigger on my first property. My grandfather left me $6,000, and I was grateful for every penny of it.

At what cost, and at what point do the sacrifices tip the livability scale? This is really a question of values. For some, life in the BA is a top priority, so almost any amount of sacrifice is a worthy tradeoff. No judgement here, I give them props for knowing what they want and getting after it. For others, however, the equation doesn't compute. In other words, it's not livable based on their values. The latter group continues to grow as the Bay Area hollows out, a trend that was already well established before the pandemic.

Sibley

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #32 on: July 18, 2021, 07:55:57 PM »
Its kinda hard to argue with the long term success of cities.

Cities are great, but they bay area is sort of its own kind of expensive dystopian sprawl.

Similar comments can be made about any major city though. And yet, there were cities in Mesopotamia, China, Africa (north and south).... Cities suck. They are also amazing. These conditions can coexist.

Wolfpack Mustachian

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #33 on: July 18, 2021, 08:03:23 PM »
Its kinda hard to argue with the long term success of cities.

Cities are great, but they bay area is sort of its own kind of expensive dystopian sprawl.

Similar comments can be made about any major city though. And yet, there were cities in Mesopotamia, China, Africa (north and south).... Cities suck. They are also amazing. These conditions can coexist.

But wouldn't you say the Bay Area, at least from a housing standpoint, is somewhat uniquely bad (given all housing is crazy now, and maybe I'm wrong about the Bay Area being substantially worse than numerous other cities...)? I mean, I'm not the kind of person who would want to live in a large city, and I have visited the Bay Area and thoroughly enjoyed my short amount of time there. However, I can't imagine what's so magical about it, in particular, that would make it and maybe the very small handful of other cities in America with such a crazy housing situation that much better than the dozens and dozens of other good-sized cities across the US. Apparently there's something if people come back. I just have a hard time conceptualizing what it is, if you are able to work in other locations with ease.

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #34 on: July 18, 2021, 08:36:39 PM »
Its kinda hard to argue with the long term success of cities.

Cities are great, but they bay area is sort of its own kind of expensive dystopian sprawl.

Similar comments can be made about any major city though. And yet, there were cities in Mesopotamia, China, Africa (north and south).... Cities suck. They are also amazing. These conditions can coexist.

But wouldn't you say the Bay Area, at least from a housing standpoint, is somewhat uniquely bad (given all housing is crazy now, and maybe I'm wrong about the Bay Area being substantially worse than numerous other cities...)? I mean, I'm not the kind of person who would want to live in a large city, and I have visited the Bay Area and thoroughly enjoyed my short amount of time there. However, I can't imagine what's so magical about it, in particular, that would make it and maybe the very small handful of other cities in America with such a crazy housing situation that much better than the dozens and dozens of other good-sized cities across the US. Apparently there's something if people come back. I just have a hard time conceptualizing what it is, if you are able to work in other locations with ease.
No snow. Well, you can visit it if you want it, but living with it is 100% optional. Plus, tons of beautiful open space.

Travis

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #35 on: July 18, 2021, 08:58:01 PM »

The smart ones open offices wherever there's a pool of talent to tap. This means the bigger tech companies already have engineers scattered around the world. Many have their HQ in SV, but the HQ is relatively easy to change while leaving an engineering office behind. However, HQ location is mostly a function of where founders/execs want to live, so I don't foresee a large number of HQs leaving...CA and the Bay Area are quite livable for the ultra wealthy.
I may be FIRE, but I'm not ultra wealthy. I've lived in CA my whole life and the Bay Area for 30+ years. I was never a high wage earner, yet I managed to do just fine here. Quite liveable indeed.

Sure, it can be done. Especially for those who got on the real estate ladder before prices went totally nuts. I'm wealthy (not ultra-wealthy) and that's how we lived comfortably in the Bay Area, having purchased our first house in the early 2000s. But for most people w/o RE holdings, with modest jobs and no family money to fall back on, it's extremely difficult.
Some of us even did it with modest jobs and without family money.

Do you think it'd be possible to do today on a modest income?
If you want it enough and are willing to make the necessary sacrifices. Oh, and I forgot. I did get an inheritance that helped me pull the trigger on my first property. My grandfather left me $6,000, and I was grateful for every penny of it.

It's worth pointing out that "Bay Area" is a big place. There's easily ten cities that qualify for that moniker and not all of them have the same characteristics or economics. My sister lives in a million dollar+ neighborhood in Colorado. I have my eye on a $350k area just a couple miles from her.

No snow. Well, you can visit it if you want it, but living with it is 100% optional. Plus, tons of beautiful open space.

Which is why I loved growing up in Sac. Want to go see the beach/forest/mountains/lake/river/farm/disgustingly compact metropolis? Just pick a direction and drive for two hours.

dougules

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #36 on: July 19, 2021, 09:49:48 AM »
San Francisco Bay Area could really do with less people, especially really wealthy people. In general, less crowds, less traffic, etc.  Livable area's pretty much built up, surrounded by fire-prone areas, less water available, etc. The really wealthy making housing unaffordable for the rest, more income mix population is better.

Actually no.  Most of the livable area in the Bay Area is pretty sprawling and could be infilled with quite a bit more housing.  The lack of it is a major part of what has made COL so unaffordable. 

Less crowds and less traffic are not what cities are about.  It's more about smarter ways to manage them. US cities have been particularly bad at that.  We keep trying to apply a rural or small-town model to urban areas, and it just makes them the worst of both worlds. 

It depends on where.  South Bay is the worst of both worlds.  San Francisco and Berkeley are nice if you're wealthy enough a few million dollars isn't a big deal (and there are a decent number there for which that is true).

I'm not sure that counts. Needing millions of dollars to live a normal life seems pretty dystopian to me.

To people who aren't really wealthy, yes, it is dystopian.  But for the really wealthy I guess it's not.  Otherwise they'd all leave, and it would be cheaper to live there than in Alabama. 

Office locations are not mutually exclusive. A tech company can have offices in Silicon Valley as well as other locations, including Alabama. Believe it or not, some tech workers actually prefer Alabama and other places Californians think are terrible. I know a brilliant software engineer that decided he'd rather live in Michigan than the Bay Area. Family there, and he likes the climate.

There are plenty of tech workers that prefer to be in Alabama, too.  COL says they are a lot fewer in number than the people that would prefer CA, though. 

trollwithamustache

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Re: NYT: Tech Workers Who Swore Off the Bay Area Are Coming Back
« Reply #37 on: July 19, 2021, 12:02:30 PM »
The main character interviewed in this article never actually moved out of the Bay Area. Sure camping in a relatives townhome was fun for a week/month and not after a few months. Duh.  But it sounds like he kept his place in SF, so he was never in the moving statistics.

There are rumored to be lots and lots of empty apartments in SF, but they are not for rent.... people may be elsewhere but if those moving back never moved their primary residence out of SF it is a non-story. More of a return from Vacation.

It is going to be another year before there is really interesting data on another outbound trend for CA or not of real moves (ie sold house, bought new house in another state)