Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?

[sherr]

Looks like the phrase said "cars" and not "car."  So I would think any car in the set catching fire would count. 

You may think me silly,........and I am.

That is where you would be mistaken.

To illustrate, if a study said "People in Canada are 4x more likely to be hockey fans than people in the United States" - it doesn't mean there are 4 times as many total hockey fans in Canada.  It's the proportion of the overall population in each country.  With almost 10x the population there would still be more total fans in the US than Canada.

She was joking.

[nereo]

Looks like the phrase said "cars" and not "car."  So I would think any car in the set catching fire would count. 

You may think me silly,........and I am.

That is where you would be mistaken.

To illustrate, if a study said "People in Canada are 4x more likely to be hockey fans than people in the United States" - it doesn't mean there are 4 times as many total hockey fans in Canada.  It's the proportion of the overall population in each country.  With almost 10x the population there would still be more total fans in the US than Canada.

She was joking.

Oops... sorry, I missed that.
I often miss sarcasm IRL. 
Apologies.

[JLee]

Tesla also claims that electric cars are 11x less likely to catch on fire than gas vehicles.

Tesla is not an honest company.

https://twitter.com/MidwestHedgie/status/1120763087139811328

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-facing-scrutiny-for-car-fires-but-more-ice-fires-2019-5

One out of eight fire department calls are for vehicle fires, or 157 per day - meanwhile it seems every time a Tesla catches on fire, there's a news article about it.

[DarkandStormy]

Tesla also claims that electric cars are 11x less likely to catch on fire than gas vehicles.

Tesla is not an honest company.

https://twitter.com/MidwestHedgie/status/1120763087139811328

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-facing-scrutiny-for-car-fires-but-more-ice-fires-2019-5

One out of eight fire department calls are for vehicle fires, or 157 per day - meanwhile it seems every time a Tesla catches on fire, there's a news article about it.

Wow, almost like there's 260m+ ICE cards on the road in the U.S.  Can you adjust for per capita?

Tesla averaged roughly 370k cars "on the road" in any given month in 2018, and had 530k cars on the road to begin 2019. Thus, if Tesla were an average car, we would have expected 0.23 Tesla fire deaths in 2016, 0.35 in 2017, 0.45 deaths in 2018, and 0.16 deaths in 1Q 2019.

In other words, if Tesla fire safety is average, there will have been 1.19 total fire deaths from 2016 through 1Q 2019. How many Tesla fire deaths have their been?[/quote]

A lot more than 1.19.  At the time of the writing (April 2019), there were at least 5 fire-related deaths in Tesla vehicles from 2016 through Q1 2019.

[sherr]

Tesla also claims that electric cars are 11x less likely to catch on fire than gas vehicles.

Tesla is not an honest company.

https://twitter.com/MidwestHedgie/status/1120763087139811328

Tesla averaged roughly 370k cars "on the road" in any given month in 2018, and had 530k cars on the road to begin 2019. Thus, if Tesla were an average car, we would have expected 0.23 Tesla fire deaths in 2016, 0.35 in 2017, 0.45 deaths in 2018, and 0.16 deaths in 1Q 2019.

In other words, if Tesla fire safety is average, there will have been 1.19 total fire deaths from 2016 through 1Q 2019. How many Tesla fire deaths have their been?

A lot more than 1.19.  At the time of the writing (April 2019), there were at least 5 fire-related deaths in Tesla vehicles from 2016 through Q1 2019.

Okay, I was curious, so let's continue with the last year and a half of US sales data.

530k Teslas on the road at the beginning of 2019, so there would have been about 578k Telsas on the road on average in 2019Q2, so an extra 0.18 expected deaths.
And around 631k Teslas in 2019Q3, so an extra 0.19 expected deaths.
And around 685k Teslas in 2019Q4, so an extra 0.21 expected deaths.
And they don't have US sales for 2020, but lets say there haven't been any at all, and it's just the previous total of 722k Teslas for past 6 months for an extra 0.45 expected deaths.

We're now up to a total of 2.22 expected deaths, and there still (as far as I can tell) have only been 5, those same 4 incidents. And none in over a year. Which yes, is about two times worse. But at the same time the numbers are only half as bad as they were a year ago, which is why you can't really extrapolate from such a small sample size. Let's see what the numbers are in 5 years.

[Chris22]

Why deaths?  Why not just fires?  Isn’t that more related to the claims made?

[sherr]

Why deaths?  Why not just fires?  Isn’t that more related to the claims made?

Yes, but the twitter guy argues that deaths are actually more relevant to "safety" than fires are, because who cares if the car catches fire in a parking lot and insurance replaces it. Which I buy to an extent, although it sure would be nice to not have a car of any stripe catch on fire in my garage.

And while I'm sure Tesla didn't just pull the "11x less likely to catch on fire" figure out of thin air, it also seems unlike to me that they would be 11x less likely to catch on fire AND 2x more likely to kill you. So they are at least loosely related.

[AlanStache]

Not to deepen the rabbit hole to much more here but all this is about "death by fire" and not "death" in general? 

[Chris22]

Why deaths?  Why not just fires?  Isn’t that more related to the claims made?

Yes, but the twitter guy argues that deaths are actually more relevant to "safety" than fires are, because who cares if the car catches fire in a parking lot and insurance replaces it. Which I buy to an extent, although it sure would be nice to not have a car of any stripe catch on fire in my garage.

And while I'm sure Tesla didn't just pull the "11x less likely to catch on fire" figure out of thin air, it also seems unlike to me that they would be 11x less likely to catch on fire AND 2x more likely to kill you. So they are at least loosely related.

Completely unscientifically, it would strike me as likely an ICE car rarely catches fire sitting in a garage turned off, but if a Tesla was sitting there charging in a garage it would be more likely (could be near-zero, but still more likely) to catch fire than an ICE car not charging.

Wouldn’t stop me from getting a Tesla, I still really want one, but the fact pattern doesn’t really make sense. And agree, my primary concern is my car not catching fire in my garage and taking my whole house, to say nothing of the occupants, with it.

[nereo]

Why deaths?  Why not just fires?  Isn’t that more related to the claims made?

Yes, but the twitter guy argues that deaths are actually more relevant to "safety" than fires are, because who cares if the car catches fire in a parking lot and insurance replaces it. Which I buy to an extent, although it sure would be nice to not have a car of any stripe catch on fire in my garage.

And while I'm sure Tesla didn't just pull the "11x less likely to catch on fire" figure out of thin air, it also seems unlike to me that they would be 11x less likely to catch on fire AND 2x more likely to kill you. So they are at least loosely related.

Completely unscientifically, it would strike me as likely an ICE car rarely catches fire sitting in a garage turned off, but if a Tesla was sitting there charging in a garage it would be more likely (could be near-zero, but still more likely) to catch fire than an ICE car not charging.

Wouldn’t stop me from getting a Tesla, I still really want one, but the fact pattern doesn’t really make sense. And agree, my primary concern is my car not catching fire in my garage and taking my whole house, to say nothing of the occupants, with it.

Also anacdotal, but I've known two people who's ICE vehicle has caught on fire while parked in a garage turned off. 
One was my roommate in college, who got woken up by the police on a Sunday morning with the question "is that your car on fire across the street?"  - he hadn't driven it about 12 hours.

Seems faulty electrical systems causes this to happen enough where it's not entirely rare.  It seems most brands go through some sort of recall after some of their vehicles catch fire, ofen while parked.  A few (Kia, Hyundai) have even advised owners of certain models NOT to park them in garages due to the danger of collateral damage from their car spontanously combusting.


https://abc7chicago.com/bmw-car-fires-vehicle-what-causes-per-year/5121834/
https://www.clickorlando.com/news/investigators/2020/03/02/if-you-own-one-of-these-cars-vans-or-suvs-dont-park-them-in-a-garage-automaker-says/
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/engine-fires-linked-to-46m-recalled-fords/
https://www.carrcarr.com/recall-millions-of-ford-vehicles-due-to-potential-fire-risk/

[BicycleB]

Hi, everyone. Just noticed this thread. Mark me intrigued...never too soon to start scouting my 2028 used car purchase. :)

Fiat 500e, VW e-Golf, Chevy Bolt, Kia Niro Electric, Hyundai Kona Electric, Honda Clarity Electric, or Hyundai Ioniq Electric.

Of these, the Niro and Kona are probably the best bet. They aren't completely hideous, but they are SUVs that start below $40k. They haven't moved the needle significantly. For example, the Niro has sold about 25k total in 2019 (including non-EV), and the Kona about 33k. In general, these are all cars that people do not want to buy. It's great that they exist and provide choice, but they have to be better. Better looking, better size for American car-buyers. Better brand names. The e-Golf actually looks perfect for the few hatchback buyers like me, except for the limited range.

Totally agree about the e-Golf (I know nothing about the range). A family I know bought one last year somehow and are happy with it. Looks very sleek IRL.

For the record, if my cost instinct didn't stop me, I'd LOVE to drive a Rivian for a while. They look spectacularly cool.

[JLee]

Why deaths?  Why not just fires?  Isn’t that more related to the claims made?

Yes, but the twitter guy argues that deaths are actually more relevant to "safety" than fires are, because who cares if the car catches fire in a parking lot and insurance replaces it. Which I buy to an extent, although it sure would be nice to not have a car of any stripe catch on fire in my garage.

And while I'm sure Tesla didn't just pull the "11x less likely to catch on fire" figure out of thin air, it also seems unlike to me that they would be 11x less likely to catch on fire AND 2x more likely to kill you. So they are at least loosely related.

Completely unscientifically, it would strike me as likely an ICE car rarely catches fire sitting in a garage turned off, but if a Tesla was sitting there charging in a garage it would be more likely (could be near-zero, but still more likely) to catch fire than an ICE car not charging.

Wouldn’t stop me from getting a Tesla, I still really want one, but the fact pattern doesn’t really make sense. And agree, my primary concern is my car not catching fire in my garage and taking my whole house, to say nothing of the occupants, with it.

Also anacdotal, but I've known two people who's ICE vehicle has caught on fire while parked in a garage turned off. 
One was my roommate in college, who got woken up by the police on a Sunday morning with the question "is that your car on fire across the street?"  - he hadn't driven it about 12 hours.

Seems faulty electrical systems causes this to happen enough where it's not entirely rare.  It seems most brands go through some sort of recall after some of their vehicles catch fire, ofen while parked.  A few (Kia, Hyundai) have even advised owners of certain models NOT to park them in garages due to the danger of collateral damage from their car spontanously combusting.


https://abc7chicago.com/bmw-car-fires-vehicle-what-causes-per-year/5121834/
https://www.clickorlando.com/news/investigators/2020/03/02/if-you-own-one-of-these-cars-vans-or-suvs-dont-park-them-in-a-garage-automaker-says/
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/engine-fires-linked-to-46m-recalled-fords/
https://www.carrcarr.com/recall-millions-of-ford-vehicles-due-to-potential-fire-risk/

My roommate's old neighbor also had their car burn to the ground while parked on the street.

[FINate]

For the record, if my cost instinct didn't stop me, I'd LOVE to drive a Rivian for a while. They look spectacularly cool.

Same here. I love the idea, but just can't see myself doing it.

There were a couple of good threads on these forums last year after the Cybertruck reveal which helped me research and process the BEV market for SUVs/trucks/adventure vehicles. Conclusion: BEV just doesn't make sense for this type of vehicle, at least not yet. Far better to keep my 8 year old low-mileage F-150 with truck cap, and get a used BEV car for daily driving.

I almost never drive the truck other than for truck stuff (dump runs, camping/hunting, etc.). It gets somewhat ok MPG for road trips which usually involves camping. With routine maintenance it should be good for a long time, and Fords are cheap to repair.

A used small-ish BEV car, at the right price, would be sweet for daily in-town use. I keep telling myself 2ish years, but we don't drive either car much and DW's 10 year old Toyota still has under 100k miles... it could easily go another 10 years.

[RWD]

I could see this being popular:
https://jalopnik.com/here-is-volkswagens-new-id-4-cross-ev-production-model-1844067856

[nereo]

I could see this being popular:
https://jalopnik.com/here-is-volkswagens-new-id-4-cross-ev-production-model-1844067856

Two companies I'm interested in seeing what they come up with are VW and Volvo.  Both have pledged >50% of their fleet will be all-electric within a decade (*Volvo by 2025).  Right now both seem to just have dipped their toes in the water (VW more than Volvo, with the eGolf - Volvo's XC40 won't be available here probably for at least 6 months).  I'm guessing we'll see multiple new models unveiled from both in the next couple of years.

[sherr]

I could see this being popular:
https://jalopnik.com/here-is-volkswagens-new-id-4-cross-ev-production-model-1844067856

Two companies I'm interested in seeing what they come up with are VW and Volvo.  Both have pledged >50% of their fleet will be all-electric within a decade (*Volvo by 2025).  Right now both seem to just have dipped their toes in the water (VW more than Volvo, with the eGolf - Volvo's XC40 won't be available here probably for at least 6 months).  I'm guessing we'll see multiple new models unveiled from both in the next couple of years.

VW is not just pledging, they are being forced to invest $2 Billion in the US alone in EV infrastructure as part of the settlement for dieselgate. They have to shift hard into EVs in order to make that an investment, not just a loss.

We will definitely see them coming out with more EV models in the coming years.

[pecunia]

I could see this being popular:
https://jalopnik.com/here-is-volkswagens-new-id-4-cross-ev-production-model-1844067856

That thing reminds me of the old AMC Eagle from years ago.

Here's what I wonder a bit about.  I bought a diesel Jeep a few years back.  It was the first production run.  It had a lot of problems.  I told myself, "Self - Always buy a car that has been in production for a few years in the future- OK?"

So - With VW, SAAB, GM and others just getting their feet wet with the electric car thing.  Is there a chance that their new models in the next few years will have some problems?  If one waits a few years, will the reliability be up and the cost down?  I know Chevy, for example, has had the EV-1, Volt, Bolt and some others, but I still think electric vehicles are new to many of these manufacturers.

I made that mistake with a flat screen TV.  I bought one after the first price dip and if I had waited, my money would have gone further.

[FINate]

I could see this being popular:
https://jalopnik.com/here-is-volkswagens-new-id-4-cross-ev-production-model-1844067856

That thing reminds me of the old AMC Eagle from years ago.

Here's what I wonder a bit about.  I bought a diesel Jeep a few years back.  It was the first production run.  It had a lot of problems.  I told myself, "Self - Always buy a car that has been in production for a few years in the future- OK?"

So - With VW, SAAB, GM and others just getting their feet wet with the electric car thing.  Is there a chance that their new models in the next few years will have some problems?  If one waits a few years, will the reliability be up and the cost down?  I know Chevy, for example, has had the EV-1, Volt, Bolt and some others, but I still think electric vehicles are new to many of these manufacturers.

I made that mistake with a flat screen TV.  I bought one after the first price dip and if I had waited, my money would have gone further.

Early adopters of new technology always pay a premium. This is why we've decided to wait a few years for the BEV market to ripen: standards will stabilize, battery lifespan and range will improve, prices will come down, the charging network will get fleshed out, and there should be a healthy market of used BEVs to choose from.

But still, I'm conflicted. New technology needs early adopters and their willingness to pay the big bucks to bootstrap the market. We could afford to help in this way, and I was an early adopter earlier in life. Yet I feel like I've experienced that and found I don't really enjoy it, so I'll leave it to folks that enjoy showing off shiny new things and obsessing over the latest tech.

ETA: The ID.4 is interesting. I like that it looks like a "normal" CUV. If it has reasonable specs/price, and if I fit in it (VW seems to fit tall people better than most brands), then it will likely be on our short list in the future.

[nereo]

I could see this being popular:
https://jalopnik.com/here-is-volkswagens-new-id-4-cross-ev-production-model-1844067856

That thing reminds me of the old AMC Eagle from years ago.

Here's what I wonder a bit about.  I bought a diesel Jeep a few years back.  It was the first production run.  It had a lot of problems.  I told myself, "Self - Always buy a car that has been in production for a few years in the future- OK?"

So - With VW, SAAB, GM and others just getting their feet wet with the electric car thing.  Is there a chance that their new models in the next few years will have some problems?  If one waits a few years, will the reliability be up and the cost down?  I know Chevy, for example, has had the EV-1, Volt, Bolt and some others, but I still think electric vehicles are new to many of these manufacturers.

I made that mistake with a flat screen TV.  I bought one after the first price dip and if I had waited, my money would have gone further.

Consumer Reports keeps detailed records on several hundred kinds of vehicles and their repair histories.  Anytime a new model comes out or goes through a significant redesign it tends to have worse than average repair history and voluntary recalls.  This is so consistent that CR automatically downgrades the “expected reliability” of any remodel, even when previous years have been very good.

FWIW, within two years of a new model coming out the repair history tends to be as reliable as its going to get.  Currently a bunch of EVs have already been out for several years (though a few have had major remodels).

I’m with you @pecunia - I wouldn’t buy a brand new EV the year it comes out.  That’s true for ICE vehicles as well (though I wouldn’t by a new car regardless.... only energy efficiency rebates and tax credits make buying a new EV sometimes the smarter play...right now)

There are more efficiencies of scale which will almost certainly push the price of EVs down in the future.  In fact, that’s one of the stated reasons WHY the federal tax credit exists in the first place (to increase demand to decrease prices and allow for the development of a broader charging network).