Author Topic: Looming civil war? In Germany?  (Read 12132 times)

MoonShadow

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Looming civil war? In Germany?
« on: November 04, 2015, 09:24:33 PM »
http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2015/11/an-exit-strategy-for-traitors.html

Is this op-ed an accurate description of the reality in Germany?  Of is this guy off his rocker?

Telecaster

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2015, 09:28:20 PM »
I really have no idea about the situation in Germany, but after reading the article I concluded the author is quite possibly insane.  I hope he gets the help he needs.   

Frugal D

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2015, 11:25:11 PM »
I don't think it's outrageous.

The refugee crisis is real and opinions about it are fierce. Social unrest is exploding across the globe and and particularly in Germany

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2015, 02:50:35 AM »
It's absurd.. Western european countries are incredibly stable, coherent societies and even people who are marginalized are way better off than anywhere else in the world. Plus these societies are characterized by a very high level of trust in the government. The conditions for a civil war or even unrest just aren't there, and it's going to take a whole lot more than a refugee crisis to change that! I mean, a country like Jordan has been receiving huge amounts of refugees for years. That country hasn't been rocked by civil war so why on earth would a place like Germany experience it, receiving fewer refugees and having much more resources to deal with them?

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2015, 03:25:07 AM »
Honestly, I would consider a civil war in the US more probable than one in western Europe, given the higher racial and social tensions in some regions of the US.

The European refugee crisis, while tragic for those involved, is of relatively small scale compared to the kinds of issues you would need for civil war. Yes, a few million refugees strain the systems currently in place which have not been designed for so many applicants. But given that Europe has hundreds of millions of people, it is just a matter of adjusting the systems and redistributing resources towards the issue. All it takes is one or two percent higher taxes, which is uncomfortable but not life changing.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2015, 03:26:42 AM by dmn »

regulator

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2015, 02:19:10 PM »
Dunno.  I did see a (possibly spurious) report that in Austria shotguns have flown off the shelves and basically cannot be found for would-be purchasers since they are apparently what you are allowed to buy without some sort of permit.

MoonShadow

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2015, 03:08:43 PM »
Let me rephrase the question.

Are there any forum members who live in Germany, Austria or Norway willing to comment on this guy's observations?

Lordy

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2015, 08:33:37 PM »
German here. It's a big pile of horse-poop.

Yes, one million refugees coming into the country causes controversy and some people feel (more or less rightfully) frightened. Regular demonstrations like "Pegida" may make it seem like the situation is boiling but these guys are just a very loud minority.

Out of the 82-83 million people living in Germany, 10% are already foreigners. When asked, less than 10% of refugees have stated they want to stay in Germany long-term. I'm not worried.

MoonShadow

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2015, 10:17:20 PM »
German here. It's a big pile of horse-poop.

 Regular demonstrations like "Pegida" may make it seem like the situation is boiling but these guys are just a very loud minority.


Hmm.  The problem with that statement is that very loud minorities are the only kind that has ever changed history.  The shockingly small number of people involved in the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand, is one such example.
My concern here is twofold.  First, how many people think along the same lines as this guy.  History says that once around 3% of the population accepts an idea on premise, events start to take on their own momentum, truth be damned.  So refugees wouldn't actually have to be a real threat for something irreversible to occur.  Second, if you were an ISIS strategist tasked with infiltrating European societies & pre-positioning forces beyond the known borders of ISIS influence; how would you do it?  If even a few thousand of these refugees are actually agents provocateurs tasked with stirring up this kind of distrust, this really could be a threat.

Lordy

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2015, 07:57:30 AM »
Hmm.  The problem with that statement is that very loud minorities are the only kind that has ever changed history.  The shockingly small number of people involved in the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand, is one such example.

Yes, a small number of people can change the world: Gandhi, Princip, Oswald, bin Laden.

These people had a clear enemy. Right wing nuts like Pegida don't have a clear enemy, they are mainly driven by the fear of loosing social status and jobs. They also have neither political nor military power to initiate change. The next vote in 2017 is unlikely to significantly change that.

Quote
My concern here is twofold.  First, how many people think along the same lines as this guy.  History says that once around 3% of the population accepts an idea on premise, events start to take on their own momentum, truth be damned.

Source?

Quote
So refugees wouldn't actually have to be a real threat for something irreversible to occur. 

True. They are considered a threat, wether or not they are.

Quote
Second, if you were an ISIS strategist tasked with infiltrating European societies & pre-positioning forces beyond the known borders of ISIS influence; how would you do it?  If even a few thousand of these refugees are actually agents provocateurs tasked with stirring up this kind of distrust, this really could be a threat.

Ah, the classic non-argument of terrorism.

If I would be the strategist I would take the safe land route through Turkey instead of sending my forces on crappy boats. But most likely I would rather keep my forces together rather than stretching them far and wide. There are enough radicalized native citizens that I might not even have to bother (see France).

Even if we knew for sure that 100 out of the 1 million people were actual terrorists, how should that change our policy? Should we send 999.900 people back to a war-zone? Shoot at refugee boats? Isolate refugees in concentration camps until the war is over?

Long story short: What is needed is a strategy to stabilize Syria and the Middle East but right now we seem to move away from that rather than towards it. Until then, we have to deal with the people on hand and give them a decent chance of restoring their lives.

music lover

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2015, 12:21:13 PM »
Ah, the classic non-argument of terrorism.

Ah...the classic argument from the willfully blind/clueless.

It boggles the mind to think that in this day and age that some people are so naïve as to think that Earth is just one big happy melting pot of multi-culturalism where all groups and religions respect everyone else.

A mere 20 years ago most people would have laughed if they were told that drawing a cartoon will get you killed.

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2015, 12:28:16 PM »
Ah, the classic non-argument of terrorism.

Ah...the classic argument from the willfully blind/clueless.

It boggles the mind to think that in this day and age that some people are so naïve as to think that Earth is just one big happy melting pot of multi-culturalism where all groups and religions respect everyone else.

A mere 20 years ago most people would have laughed if they were told that drawing a cartoon will get you killed.

....
Woooh there Nellie. Hold your horses.

The OP asked for a German interpretation of the linked.
Thus a German replied that the post does not reflect their understanding of the situation. Frankly, they're more likely to know than you (or I).

No need for the frothing mouth...

Lordy

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2015, 12:33:49 PM »
Ah, the classic non-argument of terrorism.

Ah...the classic argument from the willfully blind/clueless.

It boggles the mind to think that in this day and age that some people are so naïve as to think that Earth is just one big happy melting pot of multi-culturalism where all groups and religions respect everyone else.

A mere 20 years ago most people would have laughed if they were told that drawing a cartoon will get you killed.

Of course the world isn't a happy place. But seeing a terrorist in each and everybody doesn't help either.

I like how you came up with exactly no answers to my questions.

Bob W

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2015, 01:00:31 PM »
German here. It's a big pile of horse-poop.

Yes, one million refugees coming into the country causes controversy and some people feel (more or less rightfully) frightened. Regular demonstrations like "Pegida" may make it seem like the situation is boiling but these guys are just a very loud minority.

Out of the 82-83 million people living in Germany, 10% are already foreigners. When asked, less than 10% of refugees have stated they want to stay in Germany long-term. I'm not worried.

80+ Million people living in Germany!   I thought the population was much smaller.  That is a crazy amount of people to have in such a small country.  For comparison,  my home state is about the size of Germany and the population is around 6 million.     I couldn't imagine 10 times as many people living here.   It already seems very crowded here.   

Do you guys import most of your food? 

Lordy

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2015, 01:11:22 PM »
Do you guys import most of your food?

Nope.

Here are some percentages on food production vs. demand:
  • Beef 109%
  • Pork 118%
  • Chicken 109%
  • Butter 99%
  • Potatoes 112%
  • Wheat 134%
  • Vegetables 39%
  • Fruit 13%

Fruit and Vegetables are usually grown further south (Spain, etc.).
Then of course we import Coffee, Cocoa and all the other good stuff you can't grow in Europe.

MoonShadow

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2015, 02:34:20 PM »

Quote
My concern here is twofold.  First, how many people think along the same lines as this guy.  History says that once around 3% of the population accepts an idea on premise, events start to take on their own momentum, truth be damned.

Source?

I don't have a source for that, I'm afraid.  I'm okay with that idea being a myth.
Quote
Quote
Second, if you were an ISIS strategist tasked with infiltrating European societies & pre-positioning forces beyond the known borders of ISIS influence; how would you do it?  If even a few thousand of these refugees are actually agents provocateurs tasked with stirring up this kind of distrust, this really could be a threat.

Ah, the classic non-argument of terrorism.


Except it's not really a non-argument anymore, is it?

Lordy

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2015, 02:42:15 PM »
Quote
Quote
Quote
Second, if you were an ISIS strategist tasked with infiltrating European societies & pre-positioning forces beyond the known borders of ISIS influence; how would you do it?  If even a few thousand of these refugees are actually agents provocateurs tasked with stirring up this kind of distrust, this really could be a threat.

Ah, the classic non-argument of terrorism.


Except it's not really a non-argument anymore, is it?

As a German/European I probably have a different view on terrorism than you (US) have.
Terrorism has always been around, even in Europe, see IRA, ETA and RAF. It's not new.
But suddenly people seem to believe that when they give up all their freedom, have their
bank accounts monitored and their phone calls recorded that they would be safe.

I go with Benjamin Franklin:
"They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety"

I also refuse to live in fear. I will probably die of either cardio-vascular disease or cancer one day, not terrorism.

music lover

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2015, 02:49:51 PM »
Ah, the classic non-argument of terrorism.

Ah...the classic argument from the willfully blind/clueless.

It boggles the mind to think that in this day and age that some people are so naïve as to think that Earth is just one big happy melting pot of multi-culturalism where all groups and religions respect everyone else.

A mere 20 years ago most people would have laughed if they were told that drawing a cartoon will get you killed.

Of course the world isn't a happy place. But seeing a terrorist in each and everybody doesn't help either.

I don't see terrorists everywhere, but I also don't have the naïve belief that terrorism isn't a problem.

MoonShadow

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #18 on: November 06, 2015, 02:50:15 PM »
Quote
Quote
Quote
Second, if you were an ISIS strategist tasked with infiltrating European societies & pre-positioning forces beyond the known borders of ISIS influence; how would you do it?  If even a few thousand of these refugees are actually agents provocateurs tasked with stirring up this kind of distrust, this really could be a threat.

Ah, the classic non-argument of terrorism.


Except it's not really a non-argument anymore, is it?

As a German/European I probably have a different view on terrorism than you (US) have.
Terrorism has always been around, even in Europe, see IRA, ETA and RAF. It's not new.
But suddenly people seem to believe that when they give up all their freedom, have their
bank accounts monitored and their phone calls recorded that they would be safe.

No, it's not new.  But now we have an entrenched ideological group with a demonstrated willingness to employ terrorism as a political tool. 

Quote
I go with Benjamin Franklin:
"They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety"

Good for you!  Of course, that is not what I've been asking about.

Quote
I also refuse to live in fear. I will probably die of either cardio-vascular disease or cancer one day, not terrorism.

Odds are good, yes, but part & parcel to those odds are the facts that known threats are known; so their odds can be actively reduced.  But this doesn't work if no one monitors or responds to those known threats.  Of course, no one here knows to what extent the governments in Europe are monitoring the refugees, or isolating fakes.  All we can do is make assumptions based upon what they appear to be doing.

Thank you for your perspectives, Lordy.

Lordy

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #19 on: November 06, 2015, 02:52:51 PM »
Quote
But now we have an entrenched ideological group with a demonstrated willingness to employ terrorism as a political tool.

That also fits IRA and ETA.

Lordy

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #20 on: November 06, 2015, 02:54:48 PM »
Quote
I don't see terrorists everywhere, but I also don't have the naïve belief that terrorism isn't a problem.

You may call me naive but I don't see you showing any solutions either.

regulator

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2015, 02:56:58 PM »
I will decline to offer any "solutions" (especially since there probably is no good choice since the world has failed Syria), but it will be entertaining to watch Europe deal with a migrant influx.

MoonShadow

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2015, 03:01:31 PM »
Quote
But now we have an entrenched ideological group with a demonstrated willingness to employ terrorism as a political tool.

That also fits IRA and ETA.

That's true historically, but when is the last time either has actively been a threat?  Also, don't both those groups operate within a stated & known geographical area?  Their influence beyond their regions is more than a bit limited.  ISIS (and it's predecessors) has shown at least a willingness to project force abroad.  What we are really considering here is their capacity to do so, and the potential of a huge refugee crisis to provide cover for the movement of agents towards that end.

Lordy

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2015, 03:18:03 PM »
That's true historically, but when is the last time either has actively been a threat?  Also, don't both those groups operate within a stated & known geographical area?  Their influence beyond their regions is more than a bit limited.  ISIS (and it's predecessors) has shown at least a willingness to project force abroad.  What we are really considering here is their capacity to do so, and the potential of a huge refugee crisis to provide cover for the movement of agents towards that end.

Both have dissolved in the meantime, yes. I was pointing out that terrorism is not a new political tool.

As for ISIS, I have not heard of anyone of them being sent abroad. Looking at the list of attacks the pattern seems to be that they were committed by locals that had been radicalized. ISIS is exporting terrorism, not terrorist.

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2015, 04:07:00 PM »
"Interesting" results in the next elections? Certainly.
Civil war? Fuck no.

Kris

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #25 on: November 06, 2015, 06:41:53 PM »
Quote
I go with Benjamin Franklin:
"They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety"

Or you could go with FDR: The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.

I am firmly convinced that the single biggest cause of the disintegration of our country's sense of common identity and common sense of purpose is the weaponizing of our fears by the political class and the corporate interests of the media.


« Last Edit: November 06, 2015, 07:19:44 PM by Kris »

Eric

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #26 on: November 06, 2015, 07:17:05 PM »
Ah, the classic non-argument of terrorism.

Ah...the classic argument from the willfully blind/clueless.

It boggles the mind to think that in this day and age that some people are so naïve as to think that Earth is just one big happy melting pot of multi-culturalism where all groups and religions respect everyone else.

A mere 20 years ago most people would have laughed if they were told that drawing a cartoon will get you killed.

Of course the world isn't a happy place. But seeing a terrorist in each and everybody doesn't help either.

I don't see terrorists everywhere, but I also don't have the naïve belief that terrorism isn't a problem.

Is it a problem?  Like a real problem?  How many people were killed in the US by terrorists last year?  How about in Germany?  Now compare that to the number killed by drunk driving.  I don't even have to look up the numbers to know that drunk driving wins by a mile (pun intended).  But you know what gets people to watch the news?  The fear of the brown skinned "other" coming to kill them and disrupt their supposed utopia.  You probably have a higher chance of dying from a lightning strike than you do a terrorist bomb.

But I guess I'm just one of those naive people who use statistics instead of sensationalism to inform my worldview.

regulator

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #27 on: November 06, 2015, 07:26:18 PM »

Is it a problem?  Like a real problem?  How many people were killed in the US by terrorists last year?  How about in Germany?  Now compare that to the number killed by drunk driving.  I don't even have to look up the numbers to know that drunk driving wins by a mile (pun intended).  But you know what gets people to watch the news?  The fear of the brown skinned "other" coming to kill them and disrupt their supposed utopia.  You probably have a higher chance of dying from a lightning strike than you do a terrorist bomb.

But I guess I'm just one of those naive people who use statistics instead of sensationalism to inform my worldview.

Probably depends on where you spend your time.  When I lived in and around NYC and went to work every day in a very obvious target/gubmint building, you bet your ass my statistical risk of being killed by a terrorist was multiples of the average Merkin.  Now in suburbia in a flyover state where I no longer commute by public transportation?  Not so much.

Kris

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #28 on: November 06, 2015, 07:38:26 PM »
Ah, the classic non-argument of terrorism.

Ah...the classic argument from the willfully blind/clueless.

It boggles the mind to think that in this day and age that some people are so naïve as to think that Earth is just one big happy melting pot of multi-culturalism where all groups and religions respect everyone else.

A mere 20 years ago most people would have laughed if they were told that drawing a cartoon will get you killed.

Of course the world isn't a happy place. But seeing a terrorist in each and everybody doesn't help either.

I don't see terrorists everywhere, but I also don't have the naïve belief that terrorism isn't a problem.

Is it a problem?  Like a real problem?  How many people were killed in the US by terrorists last year? 

Unless you talk about white male terrorists.  That actually *is* a legitimate problem in the US. 

Telecaster

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #29 on: November 06, 2015, 08:07:25 PM »

As a German/European I probably have a different view on terrorism than you (US) have.
Terrorism has always been around, even in Europe, see IRA, ETA and RAF. It's not new.
But suddenly people seem to believe that when they give up all their freedom, have their
bank accounts monitored and their phone calls recorded that they would be safe.


To the IRA, ETA, and RAF, I would add the Red Brigade, PFLP, ASALA, Abu Nidal, CSPPA, Carlos the Jackal, Red September, etc. 

People complain about airport security these days.  Back in the 1980s, I took a flight from Amsterdam to JFK.  Before you could get on the plane, you went into a room where you had to identify your bag.  Security personnel then unpacked and searched your bag in front of you.  After you went through a metal detector, you then had a full pat down body search.  Once you were through security, you had to remain in a sealed room prior to boarding the plane. 

I'm pretty happy all I have to do these days is take off my shoes. 

It wasn't very long ago when a bomb when exploded on the streets of Paris every month.   We had the airport attacks in Rome and Vienna with large numbers of victims, Lockerbie, the Berlin disco bombing, the Munich Olympics, I recall a couple of French trains were blown up, a bomb at a train platform in Bologna that killed large number of people, the OPEC attack, etc.  Not to mention a significant number of airline hijackings, and even a cruise ship.

I might be wrong, but I'd be willing to wager that terrorism in Europe was far worse in the 1970-1990s  than in the 2000s.  People who weren't around then don't seem to realize that terrorism isn't new, and a real problem for a long time.  And I suggest, it has been a much bigger problem in the past. 

That's not to minimize the current situation, but let's not go chicken little either. 






Kris

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #30 on: November 06, 2015, 08:22:45 PM »

As a German/European I probably have a different view on terrorism than you (US) have.
Terrorism has always been around, even in Europe, see IRA, ETA and RAF. It's not new.
But suddenly people seem to believe that when they give up all their freedom, have their
bank accounts monitored and their phone calls recorded that they would be safe.


To the IRA, ETA, and RAF, I would add the Red Brigade, PFLP, ASALA, Abu Nidal, CSPPA, Carlos the Jackal, Red September, etc. 

People complain about airport security these days.  Back in the 1980s, I took a flight from Amsterdam to JFK.  Before you could get on the plane, you went into a room where you had to identify your bag.  Security personnel then unpacked and searched your bag in front of you.  After you went through a metal detector, you then had a full pat down body search.  Once you were through security, you had to remain in a sealed room prior to boarding the plane. 

I'm pretty happy all I have to do these days is take off my shoes. 

It wasn't very long ago when a bomb when exploded on the streets of Paris every month.   We had the airport attacks in Rome and Vienna with large numbers of victims, Lockerbie, the Berlin disco bombing, the Munich Olympics, I recall a couple of French trains were blown up, a bomb at a train platform in Bologna that killed large number of people, the OPEC attack, etc.  Not to mention a significant number of airline hijackings, and even a cruise ship.

I might be wrong, but I'd be willing to wager that terrorism in Europe was far worse in the 1970-1990s  than in the 2000s.  People who weren't around then don't seem to realize that terrorism isn't new, and a real problem for a long time.  And I suggest, it has been a much bigger problem in the past. 

That's not to minimize the current situation, but let's not go chicken little either.

Yes, I think this is true. I am American, and I remember the first time I went to Paris was during that time when bombs were an actual thing that happened with some frequency. I  remember the first time that I, as a callow youth, went into a large bookstore and saw armed CRS with machine guns standing near all the entrances.  It was sobering.  I realized how inconceivable something like that was to most Americans. 

It was definitely worse there in the 1980s than it is in the US today.  But there was nowhere near the climate of intense fear and paranoia there that there is here now.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2015, 08:41:23 PM by Kris »

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #31 on: November 06, 2015, 08:35:00 PM »
80+ Million people living in Germany!   I thought the population was much smaller.  That is a crazy amount of people to have in such a small country.  For comparison,  my home state is about the size of Germany and the population is around 6 million.     I couldn't imagine 10 times as many people living here.   It already seems very crowded here.   

Don't go around telling Germans that their land is too crowded.  The last two times a bunch of Germans believed that, 18 million and 60-80 million died, respectively.


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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #32 on: November 08, 2015, 07:52:13 AM »
German here. It's a big pile of horse-poop.

Yes, one million refugees coming into the country causes controversy and some people feel (more or less rightfully) frightened. Regular demonstrations like "Pegida" may make it seem like the situation is boiling but these guys are just a very loud minority.

Out of the 82-83 million people living in Germany, 10% are already foreigners. When asked, less than 10% of refugees have stated they want to stay in Germany long-term. I'm not worried.

But, it's not really just 1 million, is it??

"Germany's Muslim population is set to nearly quadruple to an astonishing 20 million within the next five years, according to a demographic forecast by Bavarian lawmakers.

The German government expects to receive 1.5 million asylum seekers in 2015, and possibly even more in 2016. After factoring in family reunifications -- based on the assumption that individuals whose asylum applications are approved will subsequently bring an average of four additional family members to Germany -- that number will swell exponentially. This is in addition to the 5.8 million Muslims already living in Germany.

Former Interior Minister Hans-Peter Friedrich (CSU) described Merkel's immigration policy as an "unprecedented political blunder" that will have "devastating long-term consequences." He said the job of politics is to think beyond the present and make decisions for the future. In view of the massive flows of migrants into Germany without any police checks, Friedrich concluded: "We have lost control." He added:

"It is totally irresponsible that tens of thousands of people are flowing into the country uncontrolled and unregistered, and we can only unreliably estimate exactly how many of them are Islamic State fighters or Islamist sleepers. I am convinced that no other country in the world would be so naive and starry-eyed to expose itself to such a risk."

http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6793/germany-20-million-muslims

brainfart

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #33 on: November 08, 2015, 09:10:42 AM »
> Out of the 82-83 million people living in Germany, 10% are already foreigners.

Actually 20.5% of the population have a foreign origin, that's about 16.5 million people. One third of them were born in Germany, 9.7 million are German citizens, 6.8 million have foreign passports. Turkey leads with 12.8%, 11.4% come from Poland, 9% from Russia. 70% come from Europe, 18% from Asia, 3% from Africa. Numbers from 2014,  current refugees not included.

> Germany's Muslim population is set to nearly quadruple to an astonishing 20 million within the next five years, according
> to a demographic forecast by Bavarian lawmakers.

Ah yes, those Bavarians... we should count them as foreigners, too. They are different from the rest of us, you know ;)

> The German government expects to receive 1.5 million asylum seekers in 2015,

Actually the forecast was 800,000, recently revised to a million. 1.5 million could be the true number by the end of the year, but it's not the official forecast.

> After factoring in family reunifications -- based on the assumption that individuals whose asylum applications are
> approved will subsequently bring an average of four additional family members to Germany -- that number will swell
> exponentially.

Nice assumption. Won't happen though.

> This is in addition to the 5.8 million Muslims already living in Germany.

We even tolerate protestants and catholics here. I don't believe in that "my imaginary friend is better than yours" crap.

> Former Interior Minister Hans-Peter Friedrich (CSU)

Right wing asshole, proud recipient of the Big Brother Award who was fired for violating the law.

brainfart

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #34 on: November 08, 2015, 09:24:06 AM »
Nothing new here. I remember 800,000 (?) asylum seekers in one year during the late 80ies, then the influx of millions of Russians and refugees from the Balkan wars in the 90ies, and every time Germany would soon cease to exist according to the right wingers. It's 2015 and Germany is still around.
With a little luck this will be the end of the Merkel era. Let's hope the next one will be better (but I'm not holding my breath).

Quote
John R. Bolton
 Chairman, Gatestone Institute
John R. Bolton is Chairman of the Gatestone Institute. Before serving as the United States Permanent Representative to the United Nations (2005-2006), Ambassador Bolton was Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security (2001-2005). Bolton also served in the administrations of President Ronald Reagan and President George H. W. Bush. His many accomplishments include the rescission of the UN's 1975 "Zionism is racism" resolution, U.S. renunciation of the International Criminal Court and the establishment of the Proliferation Security Initiative. Ambassador Bolton is a Senior Fellow with the American Enterprise Institute and a Fox News contributor.

You shouldn't pay too much attention to those extreme right wingers.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2015, 09:28:59 AM by brainfart »

Christof

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #35 on: November 08, 2015, 04:55:51 PM »
Is this op-ed an accurate description of the reality in Germany?  Of is this guy off his rocker?

Civil war isn't looming... What we see is the same we saw in the 90ties.... A lot of uncertainty, violence, unease, doubts.... 

electriceagle

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #36 on: November 09, 2015, 05:44:54 PM »
  Second, if you were an ISIS strategist tasked with infiltrating European societies & pre-positioning forces beyond the known borders of ISIS influence; how would you do it?  If even a few thousand of these refugees are actually agents provocateurs tasked with stirring up this kind of distrust, this really could be a threat.

The vast majority of people who get caught up in cults/crime/terrorism do so because their lives are miserable and they need someone to hate. If they end up in Germany, they might find themselves with a job, a beer and a girlfriend -- all things that will make them forget about whatever they had planned to do.

All the German government has to do is make sure that they aren't isolated. I.e., don't build neighborhoods full of refugee housing. Spread it out instead.

My mid-east peace plan: airdrop bacon, beer and fleshlights, then watch everyone find something else to do. Thats the PC version, anyway.

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #37 on: November 09, 2015, 06:07:40 PM »
  Second, if you were an ISIS strategist tasked with infiltrating European societies & pre-positioning forces beyond the known borders of ISIS influence; how would you do it?  If even a few thousand of these refugees are actually agents provocateurs tasked with stirring up this kind of distrust, this really could be a threat.

The vast majority of people who get caught up in cults/crime/terrorism do so because their lives are miserable and they need someone to hate. If they end up in Germany, they might find themselves with a job, a beer and a girlfriend -- all things that will make them forget about whatever they had planned to do.


HEh, maybe so.

Quote
My mid-east peace plan: airdrop bacon, beer and fleshlights, then watch everyone find something else to do. Thats the PC version, anyway.

LOL!

MoonShadow

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #38 on: November 10, 2015, 06:59:34 PM »
Hmmm, more fuel to the fire.  I can't read German, so all I can say is that there are a lot of citations...

http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2015/11/supporting-evidence.html?_sm_au_=iVV5fJM2N7PP3DrH

Any more Germans to comment on this ongoing set of articles?

cerat0n1a

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #39 on: November 13, 2015, 08:25:16 AM »
Not German, but I travel a lot around Europe on business and speak to colleagues in Germany most days.

Can only repeat what other people have said. The guy is a lunatic. Apart from anything else, guns in Europe are in the hands of the elected government and farmers. Difficult to have a war when no-one is armed. Europe has a big problem with refugee numbers right now and I'm kinda expecting the Schengen agreement to fall apart soon. Germany has coped with much worse than this. If the German government was remotely worried, they wouldn't have offered asylum to so many desperate families, as they continue to do.

As other posters have said, in spite of the millions of muslims in Europe, nothing has happened yet that's remotely on a scale with ETA bombings in Spain or IRA bombings in Britain in the past.

JJNL

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #40 on: November 18, 2015, 09:45:34 AM »
German here. It's a big pile of horse-poop.

Yes, one million refugees coming into the country causes controversy and some people feel (more or less rightfully) frightened. Regular demonstrations like "Pegida" may make it seem like the situation is boiling but these guys are just a very loud minority.

Out of the 82-83 million people living in Germany, 10% are already foreigners. When asked, less than 10% of refugees have stated they want to stay in Germany long-term. I'm not worried.

80+ Million people living in Germany!   I thought the population was much smaller.  That is a crazy amount of people to have in such a small country.  For comparison,  my home state is about the size of Germany and the population is around 6 million.     I couldn't imagine 10 times as many people living here.   It already seems very crowded here.   

Do you guys import most of your food?

This is off-topic, but I just snorted coffee out of my nose in reaction to this. LOL! Ehm... have you looked at the Dutchmen living next door to Germany? See here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Area_and_population_of_European_countries we're the most densely populated country that isn't a mini-state. We are also one of the worlds largest exporters of food and agricultural products, a lot of which goes to Germany. I've lived in southern Germany (i.e. quite a ways away from the Netherlands) and still found Dutch vegetables being sold in the supermarket. http://www.hollandtrade.com/sector-information/agriculture-and-food/

libertarian4321

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #41 on: November 18, 2015, 02:12:18 PM »
http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2015/11/an-exit-strategy-for-traitors.html

Is this op-ed an accurate description of the reality in Germany?  Of is this guy off his rocker?

Not likely.

This guy is a "societal collapse" conspiracy theorist.  He's been "calling" the collapse of the USA for years.  Now, he's taking his shtick to Germany.

BTW, he was born in Russia, and raised in the USA, so I'm not sure what makes him an expert on Germany, other than the fact that he's a guy with a blog, conspiracy theories, and free time.

UnleashHell

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #42 on: November 18, 2015, 02:42:26 PM »


As other posters have said, in spite of the millions of muslims in Europe, nothing has happened yet that's remotely on a scale with ETA bombings in Spain or IRA bombings in Britain in the past.

The reaction to the bombings in Paris has brought a lot of hysterical outpourings - mainly from the right of the political spectrum.
I spend a lot of time working in London in the 80's and 90's and having been very close to being blown up a few times I tend to take these things rather seriously.

What was the political reaction to the Bombings in Europe then?

 Did anyone even notice? i know there were plenty of people who were quite happy giving money to NORAID and couldn't connect it with people actually dying (which they were on both sides).

gaja

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #43 on: November 18, 2015, 02:55:27 PM »
Let me rephrase the question.

Are there any forum members who live in Germany, Austria or Norway willing to comment on this guy's observations?

I can't find that he says anything about Norway. Do you confuse us with Sweden? In that case: FU.

2lazy2retire

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #44 on: November 24, 2015, 12:37:20 PM »


As other posters have said, in spite of the millions of muslims in Europe, nothing has happened yet that's remotely on a scale with ETA bombings in Spain or IRA bombings in Britain in the past.

The reaction to the bombings in Paris has brought a lot of hysterical outpourings - mainly from the right of the political spectrum.
I spend a lot of time working in London in the 80's and 90's and having been very close to being blown up a few times I tend to take these things rather seriously.

What was the political reaction to the Bombings in Europe then?

 Did anyone even notice? i know there were plenty of people who were quite happy giving money to NORAID and couldn't connect it with people actually dying (which they were on both sides).

The IRA bombings in Britain were targeted at financial/goverment/military interests ( for the most part)  - there were indeed civilian losses however there was never any indication that the intent was to cause maximum loss of civilian life - this is a very different than the recent Paris attacks for example.
« Last Edit: November 24, 2015, 12:48:46 PM by 2lazy2retire »

cerat0n1a

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #45 on: November 24, 2015, 03:29:35 PM »

The IRA bombings in Britain were targeted at financial/goverment/military interests ( for the most part)  - there were indeed civilian losses however there was never any indication that the intent was to cause maximum loss of civilian life - this is a very different than the recent Paris attacks for example.

I guess if you define attacks on busy shopping malls as "financial" rather than civilian, that would be true. The children who died in the Warrington bombings were killed by a bomb at a McDonalds.

As for the population density of Germany, it's actually pretty average by European standards. England (as opposed to the UK) overtook the Netherlands a year or two back, both with over 400 people per km2 and was a net exporter of food until pretty recently. Malta has even higher population density and still mostly feels pretty rural.

2lazy2retire

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #46 on: November 25, 2015, 06:02:49 AM »

The IRA bombings in Britain were targeted at financial/goverment/military interests ( for the most part)  - there were indeed civilian losses however there was never any indication that the intent was to cause maximum loss of civilian life - this is a very different than the recent Paris attacks for example.

I guess if you define attacks on busy shopping malls as "financial" rather than civilian, that would be true. The children who died in the Warrington bombings were killed by a bomb at a McDonalds.



As I said in the original post there were civilian casualities but the IRA did have early warning codes which were used extensively to limit such losses. Not trying to justify the attacks but anyone can see this latest wave has a very different focus,unfortunately the root causes in both cases are similar, grounded in colonialism and discrimination.

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Re: Looming civil war? In Germany?
« Reply #47 on: November 26, 2015, 06:09:44 PM »

Ah yes, those Bavarians... we should count them as foreigners, too. They are different from the rest of us, you know ;)

A German literature professor from Braunschweig once told me, "Der Bayer ist ein Mittelding zwischen einem Oesterreicher und einem Menschen!" :).............