Poll

Which of the following scenarios do you think is the most likely outcome of the debt ceiling standoff?

Biden caves on his "clean bill" demand and accepts Republican policy priorities.
24 (30.4%)
Biden cites the 14th amendment and ignores the debt limit, setting himself up for potential impeachment.
13 (16.5%)
Neither side budges and the US defaults on its debt. Economic chaos ensues.
10 (12.7%)
The Supreme Court rules on the constitutionality of the World War 1 era law that requires a debt limit vote.
4 (5.1%)
McCarthy caves and a vote passes on a clean debt limit bill, a "career-ending move" per M.T. Greene
28 (35.4%)

Total Members Voted: 79

Voting closed: June 09, 2023, 11:08:12 AM

Author Topic: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?  (Read 3053 times)

ChpBstrd

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How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« on: May 10, 2023, 11:08:12 AM »
If I'm missing any possibilities, please let me know.

techwiz

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2023, 11:19:58 AM »
Biden works out a different deal than the options listed above before the June 1st deadline.

ChpBstrd

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2023, 11:26:12 AM »
Biden works out a different deal than the options listed above before the June 1st deadline.
I'd think #1 would cover this. I.e. Biden accepts some sort of compromise deal that saves face. Some unloved or unpopular program somewhere gets cut and both sides declare victory.

JLee

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2023, 11:29:14 AM »
How is the GOP rationalizing that the US can default on its debt despite the 14th Amendment?

rab-bit

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #4 on: May 10, 2023, 11:47:46 AM »
They raise the ceiling a little so that it gets hit again around September, kicking the can down the road by a few months. This doesn't really resolve anything but buys some time to negotiate a longer extension tied to the budget.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2023, 11:51:29 AM by rab-bit »

GuitarStv

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #5 on: May 10, 2023, 12:25:22 PM »
No resolution, market crash, economic collapse.  We'll be hunting and eating our neighbours by the fall.

BicycleB

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2023, 12:28:28 PM »
No resolution, market crash, economic collapse.  We'll be hunting and eating our neighbours by the fall.

I knew there was a reason for moving away from my current rustic neighborhood this summer. My neighbors are much better armed.

Alternatepriorities

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2023, 12:40:34 PM »
No resolution, market crash, economic collapse.  We'll be hunting and eating our neighbours by the fall.

Are you saying the top is in?

seattlecyclone

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #8 on: May 10, 2023, 12:42:37 PM »
I'm on team "mint a trillion dollar coin" myself, because it's a silly solution commensurate with how silly the underlying problem is.

YttriumNitrate

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #9 on: May 10, 2023, 12:55:52 PM »
They raise the ceiling a little so that it gets hit again around September, kicking the can down the road by a few months. This doesn't really resolve anything but buys some time to negotiate a longer extension tied to the budget.
I think this is the most likely. The debt ceiling is mainly just political theater and right now we're about as far as you can get from congressional elections so it's far too long before the intended audience is supposed to applaud/vote.

Alternatepriorities

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #10 on: May 10, 2023, 12:58:54 PM »
I’d like to see the 14th amendment invoked and the debt ceiling go away. Sure, we’re being foolish with our spending and pretending we can spend our way out of inflation is silly, but a debt default is the stupidest solution possible. You can only “take off and nuke it from orbit” if you don’t care to live there once you’re done.

techwiz

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #11 on: May 11, 2023, 06:08:36 AM »
I think this is the most likely. The debt ceiling is mainly just political theater and right now we're about as far as you can get from congressional elections so it's far too long before the intended audience is supposed to applaud/vote.

I think you are right about the political theater there is way too much of that and I am trying to stop watching it....

Metalcat

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #12 on: May 11, 2023, 06:20:30 AM »
IDK, the same way it always is? With horse trading and nonsense and political theatrics.

ChpBstrd

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #13 on: May 11, 2023, 08:37:36 AM »
They raise the ceiling a little so that it gets hit again around September, kicking the can down the road by a few months. This doesn't really resolve anything but buys some time to negotiate a longer extension tied to the budget.
I think this is the most likely. The debt ceiling is mainly just political theater and right now we're about as far as you can get from congressional elections so it's far too long before the intended audience is supposed to applaud/vote.
This scenario is covered under the last option where McCarthy caves. McCarthy, remember, only got into his position by promising to never, ever, ever offer Biden a no-conditions debt limit extension. So even a 3 month extension would be a cave for McCarthy and a win for Biden.

I’d like to see the 14th amendment invoked and the debt ceiling go away. Sure, we’re being foolish with our spending and pretending we can spend our way out of inflation is silly, but a debt default is the stupidest solution possible. You can only “take off and nuke it from orbit” if you don’t care to live there once you’re done.

My best case scenario is Biden invoking the 14th Amendment, suing Congress for attempting to force him to contradict the 14th Amendment, and the Supreme Court agreeing in a hastily-put-together trial. The debt ceiling would be dead forever thereafter, and wouldn't that be nice!

That said, politics is not about making the best decisions. Voters do not reward that kind of thing, even after things get desperate. Politics is about nurturing grievances and placing blame. Seen through this lens, the two sides will posture to optimize grievance/blame until the payoff diminishes.

dividendman

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #14 on: May 11, 2023, 09:45:00 AM »
I think there will be some sort of default.

I think Biden or his helpers calculate that a default and resultant economic hardship can be blamed on the Republicans because the Democrats want a clean bill.

The Democrats know a recession is coming, and it's much better politically to have it result faster and due to the Republicans, than the one that's going to occur anyway due to the economy slowing because of interest rate increases. It's a shrewd political calculation. I don't think they actually want a clean bill passed because then they can't blame the Republicans for the crappy economy that's incoming.

The Republicans are fanatics and will play into the Democrats hands and also want the default for ideological purposes.

So, both parties want a default.

In the end, as usual, poor people will suffer the most.

Sugaree

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #15 on: May 11, 2023, 09:59:17 AM »
They raise the ceiling a little so that it gets hit again around September, kicking the can down the road by a few months. This doesn't really resolve anything but buys some time to negotiate a longer extension tied to the budget.
I think this is the most likely. The debt ceiling is mainly just political theater and right now we're about as far as you can get from congressional elections so it's far too long before the intended audience is supposed to applaud/vote.
This scenario is covered under the last option where McCarthy caves. McCarthy, remember, only got into his position by promising to never, ever, ever offer Biden a no-conditions debt limit extension. So even a 3 month extension would be a cave for McCarthy and a win for Biden.

I’d like to see the 14th amendment invoked and the debt ceiling go away. Sure, we’re being foolish with our spending and pretending we can spend our way out of inflation is silly, but a debt default is the stupidest solution possible. You can only “take off and nuke it from orbit” if you don’t care to live there once you’re done.

My best case scenario is Biden invoking the 14th Amendment, suing Congress for attempting to force him to contradict the 14th Amendment, and the Supreme Court agreeing in a hastily-put-together trial. The debt ceiling would be dead forever thereafter, and wouldn't that be nice!

That said, politics is not about making the best decisions. Voters do not reward that kind of thing, even after things get desperate. Politics is about nurturing grievances and placing blame. Seen through this lens, the two sides will posture to optimize grievance/blame until the payoff diminishes.

I have serious doubts that the current iteration of the SCOTUS would agree.

Psychstache

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #16 on: May 11, 2023, 10:09:49 AM »
They raise the ceiling a little so that it gets hit again around September, kicking the can down the road by a few months. This doesn't really resolve anything but buys some time to negotiate a longer extension tied to the budget.
I think this is the most likely. The debt ceiling is mainly just political theater and right now we're about as far as you can get from congressional elections so it's far too long before the intended audience is supposed to applaud/vote.
This scenario is covered under the last option where McCarthy caves. McCarthy, remember, only got into his position by promising to never, ever, ever offer Biden a no-conditions debt limit extension. So even a 3 month extension would be a cave for McCarthy and a win for Biden.

I’d like to see the 14th amendment invoked and the debt ceiling go away. Sure, we’re being foolish with our spending and pretending we can spend our way out of inflation is silly, but a debt default is the stupidest solution possible. You can only “take off and nuke it from orbit” if you don’t care to live there once you’re done.

My best case scenario is Biden invoking the 14th Amendment, suing Congress for attempting to force him to contradict the 14th Amendment, and the Supreme Court agreeing in a hastily-put-together trial. The debt ceiling would be dead forever thereafter, and wouldn't that be nice!

That said, politics is not about making the best decisions. Voters do not reward that kind of thing, even after things get desperate. Politics is about nurturing grievances and placing blame. Seen through this lens, the two sides will posture to optimize grievance/blame until the payoff diminishes.

I have serious doubts that the current iteration of the SCOTUS would agree.

I dunno, the one thing I think politicians really don't want to do is to piss off or rock the boat for their oligarch masters, and a federal default seems like it would do that.

The guiding star on all these hot button political issues for me is usually "Is this bad for the American Oligarchs?" and if the answer is yes, it usually doesn't happen. Gotta keep the bosses happy.

RedmondStash

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #17 on: May 11, 2023, 10:47:17 AM »
I feel like the fundamentals of governmental stability have been quaking and cracking for decades now. And I feel like many of our elected officials don't really understand how governance works, and certainly don't understand how compromise works.

So I think, if not this time then next time or the time after, we're going to default. We keep playing chicken with the American economy, and eventually, the car's gonna crash.

I'm not sure what happens next. Possibly some hasty and effective fixes to limit the damage. But I no longer believe that there's no way "they" will let "it" happen, because "they" are just people, many of whom are ideologues, and many of whom are trapped by their own cynical promises to angry and fired-up bases who won't tolerate any negotiation with the enemy. There's so much brinksmanship.

What I hope happens is that the debt limit is finally done away with, so it can no longer be used to hold the country hostage.

And what I really hope is that I'm catastrophizing and underestimating our government's ability to right itself, and to find the right answer just in time, even after trying every possible wrong answer first.

ChpBstrd

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #18 on: May 11, 2023, 11:59:23 AM »
They raise the ceiling a little so that it gets hit again around September, kicking the can down the road by a few months. This doesn't really resolve anything but buys some time to negotiate a longer extension tied to the budget.
I think this is the most likely. The debt ceiling is mainly just political theater and right now we're about as far as you can get from congressional elections so it's far too long before the intended audience is supposed to applaud/vote.
This scenario is covered under the last option where McCarthy caves. McCarthy, remember, only got into his position by promising to never, ever, ever offer Biden a no-conditions debt limit extension. So even a 3 month extension would be a cave for McCarthy and a win for Biden.

I’d like to see the 14th amendment invoked and the debt ceiling go away. Sure, we’re being foolish with our spending and pretending we can spend our way out of inflation is silly, but a debt default is the stupidest solution possible. You can only “take off and nuke it from orbit” if you don’t care to live there once you’re done.

My best case scenario is Biden invoking the 14th Amendment, suing Congress for attempting to force him to contradict the 14th Amendment, and the Supreme Court agreeing in a hastily-put-together trial. The debt ceiling would be dead forever thereafter, and wouldn't that be nice!

That said, politics is not about making the best decisions. Voters do not reward that kind of thing, even after things get desperate. Politics is about nurturing grievances and placing blame. Seen through this lens, the two sides will posture to optimize grievance/blame until the payoff diminishes.

I have serious doubts that the current iteration of the SCOTUS would agree.
Imagine the SCOTUS being forced into a position of having to choose between one possible interpretation of the Second Liberty Bond Act of 1917 law or the 14th Amendment of the Constitution.

Perhaps they could refuse to hear the case, but that would just be a permission slip for Biden to ignore the debt ceiling vote forevermore.

From there, the political chess setup is to provide a future Republican Congressional majority with an excuse to open impeachment proceedings against Biden for his continued refusal to honor the 1917 law. Because impeachment could probably only happen in Biden's second term, and because it would only result in a couple years of a President Harris if Biden was convicted by a partisan Congress, it seems on initial glance like a remarkably small prize for the Republican party.

But then again, the same Congress that would impeach Biden for paying the bills could also simultaneously impeach Harris for... anything (maybe this is why we're hearing so little from VP Harris, she's keeping her head down.). This seems to me like a plausible endgame for America's two-party democracy, so there's plenty of incentive for the Republicans to force the 14th Amendment option onto Biden. It provides a shred of legal cover for the next coup attempt.

Cassie

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #19 on: May 11, 2023, 12:09:00 PM »
The debt ceiling needs to disappear now that the 2 parties can’t seem to work together.

secondcor521

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #20 on: May 11, 2023, 12:36:28 PM »
I've heard June 1st and I more recently heard June 8th.

Both parties will posture and be melodramatic and politicize to their respective bases and what they view as the winnable independent voters.

Both parties will delay any agreement until we get within days of the deadline.

Congress will pass a last minute very short term continuing resolution - like a few days to a week.  Biden will sign.

We'll get a partial government shutdown.  The shutdown will exclude Social Security and interest payments on the debt.  What actually is left unpaid will be politically motivated in some fashion (preserve cherished programs, or imperil them to score political points).

Either both sides or a surprise faction will actually sit down and negotiate a compromise deal after a week or so.  These real negotiations will take place in private, where the parties involved will actually act like adults.

Next fall, we'll be reminded in political ads about how our side won heroically saving democracy while the other side was stubborn, stupid, evil, and hates America.

(Very little of the above is how I would do it were I king.  But I don't want to be king anyway.)

chasesfish

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #21 on: May 11, 2023, 01:56:04 PM »
Biden gives some token concessions.   

Remember, this entire thing is premeditated political theatre.   There was not a debt limit increased pass in December at the same time the budget was passed, which could have been completed as part of reconciliation avoiding the 60 vote minimum in the Senate.

There are two big non-budgetary items creating a hole in the country's finances and accelerating the timeline on needing a debt limit passed:  Medicare costs and the Student Loan pause.  It was intentional not to pass the increase, hope Republicans go after one or both of those two items, then skewer them.  If they pass a "clean" bill, let their own party eat their own in a primary for not trying to do something with the free renegotiation they were handed on a partisan budget passed.   If I'm the political strategist, I'd would have done the same thing.  It was a dream setup.

Somehow the dysfunctional Republican caucus did the impossible and passed something mostly reasonable without touching those two political hot buttons.   I think it caught Washington by surprise.

My personal opinion?   I don't get why the Senate isn't debating something every day, passing their own bill, then taking it to caucus with input from the president on what will/won't be signed.   Anyone watch schoolhouse rock?   That's the next step.  Instead we get these theatrical four person meetings, press conference releases, and tweets.   It's like we have actors instead of representatives having actual debate. 
« Last Edit: May 11, 2023, 02:00:14 PM by chasesfish »

HPstache

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #22 on: May 11, 2023, 02:06:53 PM »
There are two big non-budgetary items creating a hole in the country's finances and accelerating the timeline on needing a debt limit passed:  Medicare costs and the Student Loan pause.   

I had no idea that the student loan pause was still happening and that it was such a big deal to the country's finances.  That seems obvious to un-pause that , but I suppose that looks bad for Democrat promises?

Alternatepriorities

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #23 on: May 11, 2023, 02:58:43 PM »
There are two big non-budgetary items creating a hole in the country's finances and accelerating the timeline on needing a debt limit passed:  Medicare costs and the Student Loan pause.   

I had no idea that the student loan pause was still happening and that it was such a big deal to the country's finances.  That seems obvious to un-pause that , but I suppose that looks bad for Democrat promises?

I’m sure this is very WAG numbers… but two quick google searches reveal total us student loan debt is 1.76 trillion and average rate is 5.8% but the government set it to zero so presumably they are paying the interest on the loans they backed. That something on the order of 100 billion a year?

I suspect @secondcor521 is probably right on what will actually happen. It’s all just political games.

chasesfish

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #24 on: May 11, 2023, 03:41:26 PM »
The student loan math is around $160bil to $180bil/year in additional capacity against the debt limit.   Lost interest at 6.8% on the entire balance plus the scheduled principal repayments and private refinances they were receiving.   The repayments would have been higher in 2021 and early 2022 with low market rates and the private company scraping off the highest quality / highest indebted borrowers (doctors / dentists / biglaw) with lower rates.

These are expenses not passed by the prior congress, but an executive action referencing a 2003 authority, which is the do they / don't they have the authority case in front of the Supreme Court.

No opinions here, just the math guy.

rocketpj

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #25 on: May 13, 2023, 10:11:17 PM »
Recent news has shown just how much in the pockets of the oligarchs the Supreme Court has become.  Do you really think that Harlan Crowe's amazing generosity with Clarence Thomas will result in Thomas supporting something that crashes the value of Crow's empire?

If it looks like an actual default will happen phone calls will be made and chains will be yanked hard.  Mcarthy might be the fall guy, but no way will the oligarchs tolerate their wealth being destroyed to 'own the libs'.

LaineyAZ

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #26 on: May 15, 2023, 08:32:01 AM »
It's maddening to see this continually referred to as the "debt ceiling crisis"  - huh?  This is agreeing to pay your bills for debts already incurred. 
Funny how the Republicans didn't see this as a "crisis" under Trump. 

However, the U.S. being $31T in debt, with 1/3 of that held by foreigners, is definitely concerning.  I don't know who is going to stop the cycle or how it's all going to end, but I'm afraid the average American isn't going to like it when those holding the debt say, No more, the party's over.

Instead, the news media is only focused on whether Biden or the House Republicans "win" this round.  No discussion at all over how we got here and what it's going to take to reverse course.

poxpower

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #27 on: May 15, 2023, 10:21:39 AM »
Reminder that a politician's job is one thing only: Get elected and stay in power as long as possible.

They aren't there to manage the economy, the budget, to build roads, run schools etc. They're there to further their career at your expense.

OzzieandHarriet

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #28 on: May 24, 2023, 10:14:40 PM »
This thing is not looking good.

davisgang90

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #29 on: May 25, 2023, 04:04:11 AM »
We are rapidly approaching a time when the cost of servicing the US debt will overtake defense spending.

https://www.thecentersquare.com/national/article_06ed954c-b70b-11ed-ac44-ab59b597bbb1.html

Meanwhile, we argue that we should just keep raising the debt ceiling.

It is time to begin reining in spending, but neither party is at all serious about it.

OzzieandHarriet

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #30 on: May 25, 2023, 06:00:36 AM »
We are rapidly approaching a time when the cost of servicing the US debt will overtake defense spending.

https://www.thecentersquare.com/national/article_06ed954c-b70b-11ed-ac44-ab59b597bbb1.html

Meanwhile, we argue that we should just keep raising the debt ceiling.

It is time to begin reining in spending, but neither party is at all serious about it.

From Heather Cox Richardson’s letter today:
Quote
the Republicans’ insistence that spending is out of control does not reflect reality. In fact, discretionary spending has fallen more than 40% in the past 50 years as a percentage of gross domestic product, from 11% to 6.3%. What has driven rising deficits are the George W. Bush and Donald Trump tax cuts, which will have added $8 trillion and $1.7 trillion, respectively, to the debt by the end of the 2023 fiscal year.

The U.S. is far below the average of the 37 other nations in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, an intergovernmental forum of democracies with market economies, in our tax levies. According to the Center for American Progress, if we taxed at the average OECD level, over ten years we would have an additional $26 trillion in revenue. If we taxed at the average of European Union nations, we would have an additional $36 trillion.

What Jean-Pierre did say is that the Republicans’ demand for cuts in the name of fiscal responsibility and deficit reduction is belied by their protection of tax breaks skewed for the wealthy and corporations. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said those tax cuts would add $3.5 trillion to the debt over the next decade.

Kris

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #31 on: May 25, 2023, 06:11:51 AM »
Well, the MAGA - QAnon persuasion people I know think it shouldn’t be. They are gleeful at the prospect. This was shared by one of them this morning.


GuitarStv

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #32 on: May 25, 2023, 07:22:18 AM »
No resolution, market crash, economic collapse.  We'll be hunting and eating our neighbours by the fall.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uz1Jwyxd4tE&ab_channel=thehivestv

ChpBstrd

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #33 on: May 25, 2023, 08:06:09 AM »
We are rapidly approaching a time when the cost of servicing the US debt will overtake defense spending.

https://www.thecentersquare.com/national/article_06ed954c-b70b-11ed-ac44-ab59b597bbb1.html

Meanwhile, we argue that we should just keep raising the debt ceiling.

It is time to begin reining in spending, but neither party is at all serious about it.

From Heather Cox Richardson’s letter today:
Quote
the Republicans’ insistence that spending is out of control does not reflect reality. In fact, discretionary spending has fallen more than 40% in the past 50 years as a percentage of gross domestic product, from 11% to 6.3%. What has driven rising deficits are the George W. Bush and Donald Trump tax cuts, which will have added $8 trillion and $1.7 trillion, respectively, to the debt by the end of the 2023 fiscal year.

The U.S. is far below the average of the 37 other nations in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, an intergovernmental forum of democracies with market economies, in our tax levies. According to the Center for American Progress, if we taxed at the average OECD level, over ten years we would have an additional $26 trillion in revenue. If we taxed at the average of European Union nations, we would have an additional $36 trillion.

What Jean-Pierre did say is that the Republicans’ demand for cuts in the name of fiscal responsibility and deficit reduction is belied by their protection of tax breaks skewed for the wealthy and corporations. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said those tax cuts would add $3.5 trillion to the debt over the next decade.
Did she also include the cost of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars? Those added a few trillion in themselves.

I'll never forget my veteran friends coming back and telling me tales of air conditioned tents powered by diesel generators running fuel flown in from afar on airplanes burning their own fuel at a combined cost of probably $200/gallon. I thought to myself: "This is what losing a war looks like."

chasesfish

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #34 on: May 25, 2023, 08:35:44 AM »
This is still the strangest "crisis" I've ever seen.   This is looking like a massive unforced political error. 

- We technically hit the debt ceiling on January 19th.  A budget was passed in December without an increase.   What are we doing this for?   There are voices on the left rightfully screaming, someone in their party decided this entire thing was a good idea and parts of their last budget are going to be conceded out of this. 

- The Senate hasn't debated anything even though there's been a house bill passed a month ago.   This seems dangerous given the various maneuvers Senators can use to delay if there isn't open debate.   Pass your own bill and go to committee.  I think they don't want to do this because it weakens the White House's starting point of "no concessions", which some want them to take. 

- Why has the word "default" been uttered?  The country brings in 7x more revenue than interest expense on the debt.  There's no reason to "default", prioritization of payments would likely slow payments for Medicare reimbursements then the lobbies eventually resolve this. 

- The left is doing a poor job with the microphone.   Polling data is against them.   They've been telling everyone that all deficit problems are from "the Trump tax cuts", but tax revenue is way up.  Something like 33% over 2020 levels.    Instead ask the politically correct question:  What do you want to cut?   The answer is nothing, it's about spending caps, they've lost the narrative.    It's like the entire plan was expect something horrible to happen in the house, and instead they got a vanilla style bill from the right and have no idea what to do.    How do you win calling a work requirement for able bodied adults "hostage taking"?  A 1.5% reduction in spending "hostage taking"?   Did the expect a Medicare cut and suddenly don't know what to do?

I personally voted for this administration to have an adult in the White House.  Sometimes it seems like we have that...other times we get this.

EvenSteven

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #35 on: May 25, 2023, 08:46:31 AM »


- The left is doing a poor job with the microphone.   Polling data is against them.   They've been telling everyone that all deficit problems are from "the Trump tax cuts", but tax revenue is way up.  Something like 33% over 2020 levels.    Instead ask the politically correct question:  What do you want to cut?   The answer is nothing, it's about spending caps, they've lost the narrative.    It's like the entire plan was expect something horrible to happen in the house, and instead they got a vanilla style bill from the right and have no idea what to do.    How do you win calling a work requirement for able bodied adults "hostage taking"?  A 1.5% reduction in spending "hostage taking"?   Did the expect a Medicare cut and suddenly don't know what to do?

I personally voted for this administration to have an adult in the White House.  Sometimes it seems like we have that...other times we get this.

I think the "hostage taking" is an analogy not for the demands, but for the method of getting those demands. If all I want is a pizza, and I hijack a bus full of school children and threaten to kill them unless I get a pizza, it's still hostage taking even though my demands are small.

scantee

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #36 on: May 25, 2023, 08:53:56 AM »
This is still the strangest "crisis" I've ever seen.   This is looking like a massive unforced political error. 


A truth that explains this is that Democratic Party is actually the small ‘c’ conservative party . Most people haven’t fully absorbed that yet because it seems so counterintuitive. The Democratic Party believes in rules and process, to almost a comical extent, both on-the-books rules and unspoken rules of decorum. Moving slowly, doing things in what they perceive as the ‘right way’, accounts for a lot of their inexplicable and counterproductive behavior.

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #37 on: May 25, 2023, 11:55:49 AM »
This is still the strangest "crisis" I've ever seen.   This is looking like a massive unforced political error. 

One could add to your list the half-hearted mentions of the Fourteenth Amendment by the President.  Biden has mentioned it a few times and said he believed he had the unilateral authority to pay the debts.  Senator Sanders and others seem to agree with this argument and have written that he should do so.  In the past few days I heard a report where Biden said he had the authority but no longer had time to exercise it.

Regardless of what one thinks about the underlying argument, if Biden actually thought he had the authority but needed time, then he could have chosen to invoke it months ago.  It would have been the equivalent of his initial demand for a clean debt ceiling increase.  He wouldn't have to go through long, difficult negotiations with Republicans unlikely to roll over.  He could look like the hero of the whole thing.  Sanders and others would have praised him.  If the power stood, then he would have established or expanded the power of the Presidency.

But he hasn't.  I think Biden thinks he would lose the argument in the Supreme Court and is just mentioning it to placate Sanders et al.  But in the long run I'm not sure it's a good look.  I guess it probably doesn't matter because it'll just be an asterisk at best in the history books unless some future President in a similar situation chooses to try it.

I'm still sticking with the general outlines of my earlier predictions.  Although I think it was on this board a few years ago where I predicted Covid press coverage would be over in about two weeks or so.  So consider my track record as one of being perhaps too optimistic.

ChpBstrd

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #38 on: May 25, 2023, 12:44:21 PM »
- The Senate hasn't debated anything even though there's been a house bill passed a month ago.   This seems dangerous given the various maneuvers Senators can use to delay if there isn't open debate.   Pass your own bill and go to committee.  I think they don't want to do this because it weakens the White House's starting point of "no concessions", which some want them to take. 
IMO this suggests Biden might have a plan to end debt ceiling standoffs forever, by ignoring the debt ceiling and going about one's business. Whether this occurs under the justification of the 14th amendment or if he just uses money printing to fund everything until the Republicans give in remains to be seen.
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- Why has the word "default" been uttered?  The country brings in 7x more revenue than interest expense on the debt.  There's no reason to "default", prioritization of payments would likely slow payments for Medicare reimbursements then the lobbies eventually resolve this. 
Each side in the standoff has one way to lose for sure and one way to maybe lose. The way to lose for sure is to concede to the opponent's demands. The way to maybe lose is to let default happen, play an aggressive blame game, and hope one's opponent suffers more reputational damage than oneself. Ah, the wonderful world of a two-party system.
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- The left is doing a poor job with the microphone.   Polling data is against them.   They've been telling everyone that all deficit problems are from "the Trump tax cuts", but tax revenue is way up.  Something like 33% over 2020 levels.    Instead ask the politically correct question:  What do you want to cut?   The answer is nothing, it's about spending caps, they've lost the narrative.    It's like the entire plan was expect something horrible to happen in the house, and instead they got a vanilla style bill from the right and have no idea what to do.    How do you win calling a work requirement for able bodied adults "hostage taking"?  A 1.5% reduction in spending "hostage taking"?   Did the expect a Medicare cut and suddenly don't know what to do?
From Biden's perspective, the rest of his term could be consumed with one debt ceiling standoff after another. His entire legislative agenda and everything Democrats hold dear could be bargained away, piece by piece, if he is willing to bargain. This is another reason to think he's not actually willing to bargain, and is only going through the motions of negotiation to look reasonable before striking some sort of death blow to the debt ceiling. The man is an 80 year old cancer survivor with a 41.8% approval rating and is facing signs of an imminent recession during his term. That means he doesn't have much to lose in a fight to the political death!

Democrats have been poor communicators for at least a decade, perhaps due to the party's requirement to placate a more diverse base. Al Gore's wooden style was being mocked 25 years ago. Obama started as a strong speaker, but was inexplicably reduced to studdering, awkwardly hedging, and saying umm a lot after his first year. Hillary Clinton alternated between smiling/waving and screeching meaningless platitudes. Pelosi did the same, but was not screechy enough to get attention, so I cannot remember even one speech or compelling statement by her. Biden also speaks in platitudes, but in such a quiet polite manner we have to wonder if he's running out of air. In terms of messaging, all come across as defenders of the status quo that a lot of people are frustrated with and none elicit boldness, excitement, or hope. Democrats don't say newsworthy things, and so the right's media machine speaks for them.
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I personally voted for this administration to have an adult in the White House.  Sometimes it seems like we have that...other times we get this.
I think the "hostage taking" is an analogy not for the demands, but for the method of getting those demands. If all I want is a pizza, and I hijack a bus full of school children and threaten to kill them unless I get a pizza, it's still hostage taking even though my demands are small.
IDK, how much is a reasonable amount to give away in a game of chicken you are forced to play? If the Republican offer seems low, it is because they know Biden has other cards he could play as an alternative to compromise. If a president committed to negotiating away legislative and budget priorities every time a debt ceiling came along, there would eventually be no Medicaid, no ACA, no public health, no EPA or IRS law enforcement, abandonment of Ukraine, and eventually Social Security cuts. How much of the above would you sign your name to if in Biden's shoes? I'd fight it out too.
A truth that explains this is that Democratic Party is actually the small ‘c’ conservative party . Most people haven’t fully absorbed that yet because it seems so counterintuitive. The Democratic Party believes in rules and process, to almost a comical extent, both on-the-books rules and unspoken rules of decorum. Moving slowly, doing things in what they perceive as the ‘right way’, accounts for a lot of their inexplicable and counterproductive behavior.
Through this lens, the debt ceiling laws of the WW1 and WW2 era are in contradiction to the 14th amendment, and therefore are superceded if Congress fails to pass a bill. Recall that when Democrats have been in control of Congress, they have since 1979 typically applied the Gephardt Rule, which means Congress approves the debt when they approve the budget. That is their longstanding stance on how debts and budgets should be approved. It is legally consistent and it avoids the establishment or repeal of legislation outside the Congressional procedures outlined in the Constitution.

That rationale is persuasive to lawyers, but to the average man-on-the-street who faces the impacts of a financial crisis, maybe the blame goes to the poorest communicator with the fewest party-loyal media outlets.

chasesfish

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #39 on: May 25, 2023, 01:50:54 PM »
Lots of good discussion.

I personally hope there's some "invoking of the 14th amendment", even though the treasury secretary should already have a plan to prioritize payments, instead of "defaulting".    There's zero reason to default on an interest payment and still pay Raytheon and HCA.   The same for social security and civil servant payroll.   There's record tax revenue coming in, if any of those aren't paid, it's entirely by some combination of choice or lack of investment.

@ChpBstrd - Where I disagree is congress should have passed an increased to the debt limit tacked on to reconciliation.  Then there's only one budget, due 9/30/2023, where everyone has to endure shutdown theatre, just like they have for the last 30 years when the house and WH are split.   Next year's 9/30/2024 will be punted because it's campaign season.   This is an unforced political error.

EvenSteven

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #40 on: May 25, 2023, 02:08:24 PM »

I think the "hostage taking" is an analogy not for the demands, but for the method of getting those demands. If all I want is a pizza, and I hijack a bus full of school children and threaten to kill them unless I get a pizza, it's still hostage taking even though my demands are small.
IDK, how much is a reasonable amount to give away in a game of chicken you are forced to play? If the Republican offer seems low, it is because they know Biden has other cards he could play as an alternative to compromise. If a president committed to negotiating away legislative and budget priorities every time a debt ceiling came along, there would eventually be no Medicaid, no ACA, no public health, no EPA or IRS law enforcement, abandonment of Ukraine, and eventually Social Security cuts. How much of the above would you sign your name to if in Biden's shoes? I'd fight it out too.


My point wasn't about if the demands were large or small, but that the size of the demands doesn't affect the analogy of hostage taking. If I was King Democrat for a day, I'd agree to the spending caps and pretend that it was the worst thing in the world that I'd been forced to do, and allow the Republicans to declare a major victory. As far as I know, the spending caps aren't in any way binding, so if the next congress wants to spend more, they can.

chasesfish

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #41 on: May 26, 2023, 04:32:57 AM »
Looks like none of the above poll options is accurate.

After dominating the microphones for a month, they're going to do some window dressing and move on.   The reported deal is something like a 1-2% reduction in future spending levels excluding defense, homeland security, social security, and Medicare.  Spending up 30% since 2019, this might be a 0.2% reduction.   We live in a world of performative politics.   This will be repeated as we approach Sept 30th.

My opinion?  There's no serious conversation about the debt / deficit without matching payroll taxes for medicare annually to medicare expenses.   That's at least 1/3rd of the hole and the cost of boomer healthcare is growing.

jnw

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #42 on: May 27, 2023, 11:44:14 AM »
I'm ignoring all this debt ceiling news. The media loves to suck you in for weeks on this topic. Waste of energy.

In a Tyrion Lannister voice: "The USA always pays their debts."

« Last Edit: May 27, 2023, 11:56:46 AM by jnw »

chasesfish

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #43 on: May 27, 2023, 02:40:07 PM »
I'm ignoring all this debt ceiling news. The media loves to suck you in for weeks on this topic. Waste of energy.

In a Tyrion Lannister voice: "The USA always pays their debts."



This is the way.

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Re: How will the debt ceiling standoff be resolved?
« Reply #45 on: May 29, 2023, 01:12:19 PM »
An executive branch solution to any attempted debt default would be to announce and enact, very publicly, that the first thing to stop being paid would be Defense Manufacturers.

Cue a few very pointed phone calls, a slew of dark money spent or withheld, and the 'crisis' would vanish.  Also possibly some Congresspersons.