Author Topic: How much will actually be accomplished in a Biden presidency?  (Read 4440 times)

John Galt incarnate!

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Re: How much will actually be accomplished in a Biden presidency?
« Reply #50 on: January 22, 2021, 05:22:24 AM »


As for what will be accomplished during a Biden presidency, hopefully very little. Gridlock is about the best I can hope for. Let the politicians and media waste their time being outraged about this and that and leave the rest of us alone to live our lives.

Here is Justice Brandeis on "the right to be let alone--the most comprehensive of rights, and the right most valued by civilized men."


The makers of our Constitution undertook to secure conditions favorable to the pursuit of happiness.

They recognized the significance of man's spiritual nature, of his feelings, and of his intellect.

They knew that only a part of the pain, pleasure and satisfactions of life are to be found in material things.

They sought to protect Americans in their beliefs, their thoughts, their emotions and their sensations.

They conferred, as against the Government, the right to be let alone -- the most comprehensive of rights, and the right most valued by civilized men. Justice Brandeis 1928

GuitarStv

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Re: How much will actually be accomplished in a Biden presidency?
« Reply #51 on: January 22, 2021, 07:16:51 AM »


As for what will be accomplished during a Biden presidency, hopefully very little. Gridlock is about the best I can hope for. Let the politicians and media waste their time being outraged about this and that and leave the rest of us alone to live our lives.

Here is Justice Brandeis on "the right to be let alone--the most comprehensive of rights, and the right most valued by civilized men."


The makers of our Constitution undertook to secure conditions favorable to the pursuit of happiness.

They recognized the significance of man's spiritual nature, of his feelings, and of his intellect.

They knew that only a part of the pain, pleasure and satisfactions of life are to be found in material things.

They sought to protect Americans in their beliefs, their thoughts, their emotions and their sensations.

They conferred, as against the Government, the right to be let alone -- the most comprehensive of rights, and the right most valued by civilized men. Justice Brandeis 1928

Yeah.  The US government should stop distributing vaccine and just leave the people of America alone!

ctuser1

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Re: How much will actually be accomplished in a Biden presidency?
« Reply #52 on: January 22, 2021, 07:59:38 AM »
I think the left is losing ground culturally right now as legacy media loses ground.

New media stars, ie bottom up web 2.0 people like podcasters and youtubers are quickly rising and this demographic seems to skew right - or if not right, at least skeptical of the top down leftism from Hollywood, the NYT, etc.

Likely a flawed analysis, but Spotify's stock price is up over 80% since they signed Joe Rogan, compared to 40% for the rest of the nasdaq. Joe Rogan is a perfect example of someone who isn't exactly on the right but is a very trusted voice for those on the right, as he has featured many right wing and heterodox thinkers on his show over the recent years.

It will be extremely "interesting" if the "right" gained control of the "culture".

To me, such a configuration seems to run against the very definitions of what "left" and "right" means. The "rightwing" culture simply seems to exist as subversive undercurrents in a leftwing environment/platform. Can the right flip the table and gain control of the platforms themselves? If you asked me to bet - I'd say no. Trump counties generated 36% of GDP in 2016, and only 29% in 2020. They are completely cut off from the engine of American growth - which centers on high-tech innovation in the here and now. I don't see them getting any toehold back until they jettison almost all of their social agenda that are repulsive to most people in the professional class. This seems unlikely to me.

With such a fast declining grasp of economics, I don't see the right gaining control of the platforms.

But then I may be too old to understand the real tectonic shifts going on in the cultural landscape of the next generation. I doubt stuffed shirts from 1980's would have given two hoots about yahoos in their garages like Jobs and Gates - and look at who owns who now!


HPstache

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Re: How much will actually be accomplished in a Biden presidency?
« Reply #53 on: January 22, 2021, 08:20:05 AM »
The most important thing I would like him to make progress, or even accomplish is single payer or Medicare for all.  Healthcare during FIRE is still my biggest unknown, and with the D's owning the presidency, house & senate... they better make some progress!

ctuser1

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Re: How much will actually be accomplished in a Biden presidency?
« Reply #54 on: January 22, 2021, 08:33:46 AM »
The most important thing I would like him to make progress, or even accomplish is single payer or Medicare for all.  Healthcare during FIRE is still my biggest unknown, and with the D's owning the presidency, house & senate... they better make some progress!

I expect some important but minor fixes to Obamacare and stopping any attempts to sabotage it.

I don't expect any structural changes that will tackle the reasons we spend twice everybody else does and get worse outcomes.

I don't even expect them to be able to bring the private insurance cost to around the medicare cost levels (between 9k-13k/year). For comparison, my employer provided healthcare cost in 2020, for a family of 4, is (W2 box 12DD = 21k + my share of the premium = $8k -> total $29k) is $29k.

Assuming you are wealthy ("FI" in FIRE implies that), you ought to plan for paying something between 10k and $30k, probably closer to the later. I know gaming the income is a favorite thing for many, but that appears a tad bit unethical to me.

sui generis

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Re: How much will actually be accomplished in a Biden presidency?
« Reply #55 on: January 22, 2021, 08:33:56 AM »
The most important thing I would like him to make progress, or even accomplish is single payer or Medicare for all.  Healthcare during FIRE is still my biggest unknown, and with the D's owning the presidency, house & senate... they better make some progress!

Yikes, don't mean to be insulting, but you know this isn't even on their agenda, right?  It's about as likely that Medicare for all will happen under Biden Admin as it was under the Trump Admin.  Neither of them were/are proponents, so except for the existence of a handful of supporters within Biden's party, I would be super surprised if this came to pass.  Not unhappy, but I can't imagine the set of circumstances that would get us there, given that no set of circumstances has yet.

And is it really fair to say that Dems "own" the Senate, when they are currently technically the majority, but aren't even allowed to assign their new members to committees or have their own members take over as committee chairs?  McConnell still owns that place, and I imagine he still will, in practice if not in name, until he regains the majority in 2022.

CodingHare

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Re: How much will actually be accomplished in a Biden presidency?
« Reply #56 on: January 22, 2021, 08:34:37 AM »
The most important thing I would like him to make progress, or even accomplish is single payer or Medicare for all.  Healthcare during FIRE is still my biggest unknown, and with the D's owning the presidency, house & senate... they better make some progress!

Agreed, but it highly unlikely to happen within the next two years.  Joe Manchin (D) has already stated he doesn't believe in M4A based on supposed fiscal issues.  So we don't have the 50 D votes to make progress there.  Also M4A would require the Senate to get rid of their stupid filibuster, which I'm skeptical they will actually manage to do.

I also suspect the Democrats remember the Republican backlash against the ACA and will want to wait until after the midterms to try to pass it anyway.  The next two years will be a ton of fairly moderate legislation designed to get the country back to normal running and reduce the "sky is falling" claims from Fox and Worse.

The only hope for M4A is for Democrat voters to not get lazy and vote and campaign their asses off for progressive candidates in the midterms two years from now, when the electoral map is favorable.  Get enough progressives to a super majority in the Senate and we might actually become a proper first world country with healthcare to match.

nereo

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Re: How much will actually be accomplished in a Biden presidency?
« Reply #57 on: January 22, 2021, 08:38:58 AM »
The most important thing I would like him to make progress, or even accomplish is single payer or Medicare for all.  Healthcare during FIRE is still my biggest unknown, and with the D's owning the presidency, house & senate... they better make some progress!

Yikes, don't mean to be insulting, but you know this isn't even on their agenda, right?  It's about as likely that Medicare for all will happen under Biden Admin as it was under the Trump Admin.  Neither of them were/are proponents, so except for the existence of a handful of supporters within Biden's party, I would be super surprised if this came to pass.  Not unhappy, but I can't imagine the set of circumstances that would get us there, given that no set of circumstances has yet.

And is it really fair to say that Dems "own" the Senate, when they are currently technically the majority, but aren't even allowed to assign their new members to committees or have their own members take over as committee chairs?  McConnell still owns that place, and I imagine he still will, in practice if not in name, until he regains the majority in 2022.

There’s an interesting theory that - by doubling down on the ACA and wanting incremental fixes to the Healthcare.gov - democrats might push the GOP towards supporting a single-payer option (again!). 

Not sure if it will happen, but the logic goes that health-care costs for employers are incredibly burdensome, and the GOP is nothing if not the party of ‘Big Business’ lately.  Pushing people off employer-funded health care and into a public-private partnership option sounds like exactly the sort of thing the GOP should (and previously did) support, if one is to ignore the acrid debate around ‘Obamacare!!’

pecunia

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Re: How much will actually be accomplished in a Biden presidency?
« Reply #58 on: January 22, 2021, 08:44:03 AM »
Since the GOP is the party of big business, is there a possibility of major infrastructure projects?  This creates good jobs in given areas.  Jobs create votes.  The military industrial complex has used this tactic for years.  Perhaps, it can also be done for useful stuff.

sui generis

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Re: How much will actually be accomplished in a Biden presidency?
« Reply #59 on: January 22, 2021, 08:46:32 AM »
The most important thing I would like him to make progress, or even accomplish is single payer or Medicare for all.  Healthcare during FIRE is still my biggest unknown, and with the D's owning the presidency, house & senate... they better make some progress!

Agreed, but it highly unlikely to happen within the next two years.  Joe Manchin (D) has already stated he doesn't believe in M4A based on supposed fiscal issues.  So we don't have the 50 D votes to make progress there.  Also M4A would require the Senate to get rid of their stupid filibuster, which I'm skeptical they will actually manage to do.

I also suspect the Democrats remember the Republican backlash against the ACA and will want to wait until after the midterms to try to pass it anyway.  The next two years will be a ton of fairly moderate legislation designed to get the country back to normal running and reduce the "sky is falling" claims from Fox and Worse.

The only hope for M4A is for Democrat voters to not get lazy and vote and campaign their asses off for progressive candidates in the midterms two years from now, when the electoral map is favorable.  Get enough progressives to a super majority in the Senate and we might actually become a proper first world country with healthcare to match.

I know the Dems don't need to defend as many seats in 2022 as Rs do, but I still don't know how favorable it is.  Even within the 14 seats they have to defend, there are tough ones, like GA, NV and NH.  And the GOP has 20 to defend, but only about as many that would be tough for them (PA, WI and maybe NC).

And the House looks even worse.  Partly because of the likely backlash against the incumbent admin which will make it hard for Dems to run the table on the Senate elections like they need to.  But also because of the census and redistricting.  Gerrymandering is most effective in the early part of the decade, when it is based on fresh data.  There will be no better year for Rs this decade in their gerrymandered districts than 2022.  And the census is expected to reduce seats in blue territory where gerrymandering is minimal (e.g., California) and increase it where Rs will gerrymander with surgical precision (e.g., Texas), so it would be pretty amazing if Dems can keep the House in 2022.  We don't know the map yet, because of redistricting, but the idea that it might be favorable sounds like a faraway dream, unfortunately.

nereo

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Re: How much will actually be accomplished in a Biden presidency?
« Reply #60 on: January 22, 2021, 08:52:17 AM »
Since the GOP is the party of big business, is there a possibility of major infrastructure projects?  This creates good jobs in given areas.  Jobs create votes.  The military industrial complex has used this tactic for years.  Perhaps, it can also be done for useful stuff.

I’m actually shocked that Trump and the GOP-led senate never seriously tried to put together an infrastructure bill, particularly in Trump’s first two years.  It’s one thing where you can get some serious bi-partisan support, as “money greases the wheels of politics”, and there’s few areas where a congress-person can bring more money and more jobs into their district than infrastructure projects.

Even now with an almost evenly split congress I hope Biden could get several GOP to sign off on a large infrastructure package.

Pete Buttigieg - Biden’s pick for Transportation Secretary - is pushing a rather impressive transportation/infrastructure package that is far more in line with Mustachian ideals than any that’s come before. Details are still emerging but it’s reportedly a $2T/10y plan that has the standard road/bridge money but also a bunch of clean-energy, 5G, high-speed connectivity and mass-transit aspects.

HPstache

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Re: How much will actually be accomplished in a Biden presidency?
« Reply #61 on: January 22, 2021, 09:07:20 AM »
The most important thing I would like him to make progress, or even accomplish is single payer or Medicare for all.  Healthcare during FIRE is still my biggest unknown, and with the D's owning the presidency, house & senate... they better make some progress!

Yikes, don't mean to be insulting, but you know this isn't even on their agenda, right?  It's about as likely that Medicare for all will happen under Biden Admin as it was under the Trump Admin.  Neither of them were/are proponents, so except for the existence of a handful of supporters within Biden's party, I would be super surprised if this came to pass.  Not unhappy, but I can't imagine the set of circumstances that would get us there, given that no set of circumstances has yet.

And is it really fair to say that Dems "own" the Senate, when they are currently technically the majority, but aren't even allowed to assign their new members to committees or have their own members take over as committee chairs?  McConnell still owns that place, and I imagine he still will, in practice if not in name, until he regains the majority in 2022.

I'm not insulted... I'm just stating what I think the most important thing is to me.  Before Coronavirus, healthcare was the single most debated subject matter in the primaries, hands down.  It was what got all the attention, it almost felt like the most distinguishing opinion of each of the candidates.  It's important to me because I want to have full confidence in FIRE and lack of affordable healthcare is my biggest concern by far.  This was my first time ever voting for a Democrat president (voted independent in 2016 and R for the elections prior), because I felt like it would be the most likely party to get what I consider to be the most important thing for my, and many early retirees, futures.  Now the Democrats have a majority in the house and senate too... if progress isn't made now, then when?  Edit: I'm not even asking for M4A in totality, just some sort of progress towards single payer.  Even lowering the age for Medicare would be a good start, I'm not retiring until 50, how about a half step toward that age?
« Last Edit: January 22, 2021, 09:12:16 AM by v8rx7guy »

sui generis

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Re: How much will actually be accomplished in a Biden presidency?
« Reply #62 on: January 22, 2021, 09:18:33 AM »
The most important thing I would like him to make progress, or even accomplish is single payer or Medicare for all.  Healthcare during FIRE is still my biggest unknown, and with the D's owning the presidency, house & senate... they better make some progress!

Yikes, don't mean to be insulting, but you know this isn't even on their agenda, right?  It's about as likely that Medicare for all will happen under Biden Admin as it was under the Trump Admin.  Neither of them were/are proponents, so except for the existence of a handful of supporters within Biden's party, I would be super surprised if this came to pass.  Not unhappy, but I can't imagine the set of circumstances that would get us there, given that no set of circumstances has yet.

And is it really fair to say that Dems "own" the Senate, when they are currently technically the majority, but aren't even allowed to assign their new members to committees or have their own members take over as committee chairs?  McConnell still owns that place, and I imagine he still will, in practice if not in name, until he regains the majority in 2022.

I'm not insulted... I'm just stating what I think the most important thing is to me.  Before Coronavirus, healthcare was the single most debated subject matter in the primaries, hands down.  It was what got all the attention, it almost felt like the most distinguishing opinion of each of the candidates.  It's important to me because I want to have full confidence in FIRE and lack of affordable healthcare is my biggest concern by far.  This was my first time ever voting for a Democrat president (voted independent in 2016 and R for the elections prior), because I felt like it would be the most likely party to get what I consider to be the most important thing for my, and many early retirees, futures.  Now the Democrats have a majority in the house and senate too... if progress isn't made now, then when?

Well, like I said, a majority in the Senate doesn't mean much when legislation requires 60 votes to pass. 

I agree that the D party is most likely to work productively on the thing you desire most....but that's still a pretty sad statement, in that it's like Rs are 4% likely to pass M4A and Dems are 17% likely to pass M4A.  The numbers are hypothetical, but even 300% more support in the D party doesn't get us very far when the numbers are so low. 

As for "if not now, when?" - the answer is when you actually start changing minds about it, not when you change party control, given neither party supports M4A.  The good news is, minds HAVE been changed in the last decade.  The bad news is, at the rate they are changing, unless you are 20 right now, it probably won't be in time for any sort of early retirement.

CodingHare

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Re: How much will actually be accomplished in a Biden presidency?
« Reply #63 on: January 22, 2021, 09:43:11 AM »
The biggest hurdle facing democrats is that they are essentially two parties who run together to get seats.  You have a lot of corporatists Democrats who basically favor the current system with some slap on the wrist style regulation (I actually count Pelosi in this group.)  Status Quo Democrats are actually the majority of the party in power right now.  The country actively chose Biden (who does not support M4A) over Bernie/Warren (who did.)

I know Bernie has been beating the M4A drum for years, but in many ways the ACA was a big patch on the healthcare system that genuinely improved outcomes for most.  So its only now, after it's been partially dismantled and wage inequality is making health insurance out of reach for a lot of American's, that it's started to enter the public consciousness as a good idea.

Also the current system is definitely not designed with FIRE in mind.  The idea that people might retire before the current Medicare age would boggle most American's minds.  So the fact that there is gap for people who no longer want to be employed and can live off savings, but paying outright for health insurance is a huge risk in our budgets is not something your average politician has on their radar.

I guess the reason @sui generis and I are pointing all this out is not to discourage, but to set good expectations.  The biggest risk to M4A ever happening is people electing Democrats, not realizing all the structural problems hobbling progress on it, and then not voting in the next election.  Or worse, voting in Republicans hoping they'd do something about it.  The key will be consistently voting for M4A candidates every year, and it will happen.  Eventually.

pecunia

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Re: How much will actually be accomplished in a Biden presidency?
« Reply #64 on: January 22, 2021, 01:13:51 PM »
Since the GOP is the party of big business, is there a possibility of major infrastructure projects?  This creates good jobs in given areas.  Jobs create votes.  The military industrial complex has used this tactic for years.  Perhaps, it can also be done for useful stuff.

I’m actually shocked that Trump and the GOP-led senate never seriously tried to put together an infrastructure bill, particularly in Trump’s first two years.  It’s one thing where you can get some serious bi-partisan support, as “money greases the wheels of politics”, and there’s few areas where a congress-person can bring more money and more jobs into their district than infrastructure projects.

Even now with an almost evenly split congress I hope Biden could get several GOP to sign off on a large infrastructure package.

Pete Buttigieg - Biden’s pick for Transportation Secretary - is pushing a rather impressive transportation/infrastructure package that is far more in line with Mustachian ideals than any that’s come before. Details are still emerging but it’s reportedly a $2T/10y plan that has the standard road/bridge money but also a bunch of clean-energy, 5G, high-speed connectivity and mass-transit aspects.

This is good.  I see it as an investment in the country's future unlike many of the other things they spend money on.  I hope they see it that way. I sure would like to see some high speed rail.  This needs Federal money to get it started.  The model of other countries should be enough to show the politicians a clear benefit.

John Galt incarnate!

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Re: How much will actually be accomplished in a Biden presidency?
« Reply #65 on: January 22, 2021, 08:51:34 PM »


As for what will be accomplished during a Biden presidency, hopefully very little. Gridlock is about the best I can hope for. Let the politicians and media waste their time being outraged about this and that and leave the rest of us alone to live our lives.

Here is Justice Brandeis on "the right to be let alone--the most comprehensive of rights, and the right most valued by civilized men."


The makers of our Constitution undertook to secure conditions favorable to the pursuit of happiness.

They recognized the significance of man's spiritual nature, of his feelings, and of his intellect.

They knew that only a part of the pain, pleasure and satisfactions of life are to be found in material things.

They sought to protect Americans in their beliefs, their thoughts, their emotions and their sensations.

They conferred, as against the Government, the right to be let alone -- the most comprehensive of rights, and the right most valued by civilized men. Justice Brandeis 1928

Yeah.  The US government should stop distributing vaccine and just leave the people of America alone!

Under ARTICLE I SECTION 8 of the Constitution of the United States of America, "Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes...and provide for the...general Welfare of the United States."


The federal government's provision of free vaccines is squarely
pursuant to Congress' exercise of its Taxing Power to "provide for the...general Welfare of the United States."

And pursuant to their police  power, every State, and their political subdivisions also have power to provide free vaccines.

GuitarStv

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Re: How much will actually be accomplished in a Biden presidency?
« Reply #66 on: January 23, 2021, 09:19:40 AM »


As for what will be accomplished during a Biden presidency, hopefully very little. Gridlock is about the best I can hope for. Let the politicians and media waste their time being outraged about this and that and leave the rest of us alone to live our lives.

Here is Justice Brandeis on "the right to be let alone--the most comprehensive of rights, and the right most valued by civilized men."


The makers of our Constitution undertook to secure conditions favorable to the pursuit of happiness.

They recognized the significance of man's spiritual nature, of his feelings, and of his intellect.

They knew that only a part of the pain, pleasure and satisfactions of life are to be found in material things.

They sought to protect Americans in their beliefs, their thoughts, their emotions and their sensations.

They conferred, as against the Government, the right to be let alone -- the most comprehensive of rights, and the right most valued by civilized men. Justice Brandeis 1928

Yeah.  The US government should stop distributing vaccine and just leave the people of America alone!

Under ARTICLE I SECTION 8 of the Constitution of the United States of America, "Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes...and provide for the...general Welfare of the United States."


The federal government's provision of free vaccines is squarely
pursuant to Congress' exercise of its Taxing Power to "provide for the...general Welfare of the United States."

And pursuant to their police  power, every State, and their political subdivisions also have power to provide free vaccines.

Make up your mind man!  Do you want a government to leave you alone, or to provide for general welfare of the US.  The two are mutually exclusive.

John Galt incarnate!

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Re: How much will actually be accomplished in a Biden presidency?
« Reply #67 on: January 24, 2021, 01:28:11 AM »


As for what will be accomplished during a Biden presidency, hopefully very little. Gridlock is about the best I can hope for. Let the politicians and media waste their time being outraged about this and that and leave the rest of us alone to live our lives.

Here is Justice Brandeis on "the right to be let alone--the most comprehensive of rights, and the right most valued by civilized men."


The makers of our Constitution undertook to secure conditions favorable to the pursuit of happiness.

They recognized the significance of man's spiritual nature, of his feelings, and of his intellect.

They knew that only a part of the pain, pleasure and satisfactions of life are to be found in material things.

They sought to protect Americans in their beliefs, their thoughts, their emotions and their sensations.

They conferred, as against the Government, the right to be let alone -- the most comprehensive of rights, and the right most valued by civilized men. Justice Brandeis 1928

Yeah.  The US government should stop distributing vaccine and just leave the people of America alone!

Under ARTICLE I SECTION 8 of the Constitution of the United States of America, "Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes...and provide for the...general Welfare of the United States."


The federal government's provision of free vaccines is squarely
pursuant to Congress' exercise of its Taxing Power to "provide for the...general Welfare of the United States."

And pursuant to their police  power, every State, and their political subdivisions also have power to provide free vaccines.

Make up your mind man!  Do you want a government to leave you alone, or to provide for general welfare of the US.  The two are mutually exclusive.

Whether during a pandemic or not the government's provision of vaccines    to all   epitomizes that public goods are  essential to the common weal.

Despite government-provided vaccines'  manifest essentiality obtuse antistatists will oppose them as meddlesome.

 If he were still among us Brandies would not adjudge them so and neither do I.

 




pecunia

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Re: How much will actually be accomplished in a Biden presidency?
« Reply #68 on: January 24, 2021, 08:31:50 AM »




-  BIG SNIP -


Whether during a pandemic or not the government's provision of vaccines    to all   epitomizes that public goods are  essential to the common weal.

Despite government-provided vaccines'  manifest essentiality obtuse antistatists will oppose them as meddlesome.

 If he were still among us Brandies would not adjudge them so and neither do I.

I had to figure that one out.  "Obtuse antistatists," or more commonly called crazy people.  Some of them can be fun.  You run into them in the woods.  They live in little cabins all alone and will spout nonsense with little prodding.  Since they hardly rub elbows with the rest of us, they will not get Covid and do not need the government's meddlesome vaccine until they are old and feeble.

Toward the end of her days even Ayn Rand accepted some public medicine.

rocketpj

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Re: How much will actually be accomplished in a Biden presidency?
« Reply #69 on: January 24, 2021, 10:51:33 PM »

A party that holds a  majority by a very slim margin cannot claim a governing mandate.

Accordingly,  McConnell and Schumer are discussing a power-sharing compact which does not augur  sweeping passage of  the Democratic Party's agenda.

Worth noting that the Democratic Senators represent a whopping >48million more people than the Republican Senators.

I sincerely hope that Biden and the Democrats don't fall prey to the naive notion that the Republican party will see efforts at conciliation as anything other than weakness.

Kris

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Re: How much will actually be accomplished in a Biden presidency?
« Reply #70 on: January 25, 2021, 05:31:20 AM »

A party that holds a  majority by a very slim margin cannot claim a governing mandate.

Accordingly,  McConnell and Schumer are discussing a power-sharing compact which does not augur  sweeping passage of  the Democratic Party's agenda.

Worth noting that the Democratic Senators represent a whopping >48million more people than the Republican Senators.

I sincerely hope that Biden and the Democrats don't fall prey to the naive notion that the Republican party will see efforts at conciliation as anything other than weakness.

Agree on both points. Pessimistic about the second one.

J Boogie

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Re: How much will actually be accomplished in a Biden presidency?
« Reply #71 on: January 25, 2021, 10:52:22 AM »
I think the left is losing ground culturally right now as legacy media loses ground.

New media stars, ie bottom up web 2.0 people like podcasters and youtubers are quickly rising and this demographic seems to skew right - or if not right, at least skeptical of the top down leftism from Hollywood, the NYT, etc.

Likely a flawed analysis, but Spotify's stock price is up over 80% since they signed Joe Rogan, compared to 40% for the rest of the nasdaq. Joe Rogan is a perfect example of someone who isn't exactly on the right but is a very trusted voice for those on the right, as he has featured many right wing and heterodox thinkers on his show over the recent years.

It will be extremely "interesting" if the "right" gained control of the "culture".

To me, such a configuration seems to run against the very definitions of what "left" and "right" means. The "rightwing" culture simply seems to exist as subversive undercurrents in a leftwing environment/platform. Can the right flip the table and gain control of the platforms themselves? If you asked me to bet - I'd say no. Trump counties generated 36% of GDP in 2016, and only 29% in 2020. They are completely cut off from the engine of American growth - which centers on high-tech innovation in the here and now. I don't see them getting any toehold back until they jettison almost all of their social agenda that are repulsive to most people in the professional class. This seems unlikely to me.

With such a fast declining grasp of economics, I don't see the right gaining control of the platforms.

But then I may be too old to understand the real tectonic shifts going on in the cultural landscape of the next generation. I doubt stuffed shirts from 1980's would have given two hoots about yahoos in their garages like Jobs and Gates - and look at who owns who now!

I'm not sure if I see the right gaining control of platforms, but I think the recent deplatforming of various right wing people/orgs has probably given them a lot of interest in doing so - so their parlers can never be taken down again.

However the shift that I'm referring to is probably more like heterodox thinkers slowly eroding the foundations that the cathedral is built on. (the cathedral is a mencius moldbug term which, regardless of you feel about moldbug and his zany ideas, is pretty good shorthand way to refer to the left's cultural power that includes academia, journalism, and now big tech)

I am thinking of all of the left and center left thought leaders who have turned their backs on the woke excesses of the left, cancel culture, subordinating biology to ideology when it comes to trans issues, etc. The open letter in Harpers is a decent list but far more influential people would be included in the list of heterodox thinkers. One thing many of them are doing is turning to fan-funded business models as they feel the likelihood increasing that their bosses will prevent them from sharing their thoughts that might not be useful to the democratic party.

The end result, in my opinion, is that people can detect inauthenticity and eventually take people to task over it.

You can see it on the right. All the dumb elected officials who pretended the election was stolen are getting their shit kicked in as they attempt to pivot to adult mode in hopes they can shoehorn a constitutional sounding way to explain their cowtowing to trump mobs.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!