Damn, so I didn't mean for this to be a thread that I just drop and see what happens, but I got busy in the afternoon and forgot to check on this thread. Holy yeouch, this thing blew up. Lots of stuff to unpack here.
First,
I think your sample is too small to be valid. Here is one study I found: "Over the entire sample (1972-2010), family variables have quite a small effect. Being married made you 2.3 percentage-points less likely to be a Democrat, and 1.8 percentage-points more likely to be a Republican. The effect of children was statistically insignificant – .3 percentage-points less Democratic per child, .1 percentage-points more Republican per child."
That study is using data 13 years old. I wonder if among adults ages 20-35 more liberals are so concerned about climate change that they worry about any future for their children. This comment is based solely on my conversations with some liberal young adults...not nearly a large enough sample to reach a conclusion.
Interesting study, but I do think its a bit old and doesn't reflect current polarization, and also I think that these days there are a lot of people that are left leaning Democrats that probably wouldn't be Democrats if the current Republican party insanity wasn't occurring.
The climate change theme is interesting though, I didn't realize that people were that actively concerned about their children having a crazy carbon footprint. It seems to reflect a sense of defeatism that's pretty disheartening. I'm trying to raise my children to be part of a solution to the problem, not make it worse, it seems like not having kids is a pretty "Skynet-style" solution to a problem. By the same token, suicide is pretty strongly discouraged by both liberals and conservatives, but its not really seen as an admirable solution to climate change.
Has it occured to you that perhaps it's not Liberals who hate kids, but perhaps more that Liberals tend to be more tolerant of folks who don't want kids, so the kid-free folks tend to end up in the Liberal camp because we feel unwelcome in the conservative camp?
Oh, it definitely has. It doesn't really explain the reason that its actively "not cool" to have kids though, it seems like this is a thing a lot. Maybe my local area is just not really particularly child friendly, but I've definitely heard the terminology stated below:
... refer to children as "crotch goblins" or "spawn," which is routine among a certain sub-set of my liberal friends.
People who hold more traditional gender attitudes can often be incredibly judgemental and harsh towards folks who don't want kids. And traditional gender norms are traditionally the territory of the conservative side.
I've been told absolutely hateful things about my lack of desire to have kids, particularly by religious gender-norm conservative folks.
Evidently I'm selfish, greedy, and incapable of real love.
Meanwhile, I've dedicated much of my life to actually helping kids whose "loving" parents neglect them. So...yeah...
I don't hate kids. If anything, I hate parents.
I mean, jeez. That sucks. I'm sorry people said that stuff to you, its shitty. The "other side" can be just as shitty though, and hating parents is the same thing as hating kids, you don't get one without the other. Parents may be the problem, but you aren't fixing any kids if you're not fixing the adults.
My hypothesis is that it has more to do with where liberals and conservatives eventually settle.
People who are more liberal are more likely move away from where they grew up (and to end up in HCOL areas), meaning they may not have a support network, which is super helpful when having kids. You have to make sure you have your sh*t on lock if you are having babies with no support network, making it likelier that you put off having kids or forgo them.
Conversely, conservatives are more likely to settle close to where they were born (and it is like within 15 miles or something?), making it likelier that even if you aren't sure you are financially "Ready" that you go ahead and do it, because you are likely to have help nearby.
My background is a religious liberal who has had kids (and has also lived/worked in MD and NC).
If we had stayed in MD we would have been less likely to have 2 kids just from daycare costs. We still would have probably had at least one because DH and I have both always wanted children. When we got married we said we wanted 4. We ended up with 2 because we couldn't swing more than that. But if we had lived nearer to either of our families we would have been more likely to go for a third.
Interesting points.
Re: the lack of support network, I'm right there with you. Our families are 500 miles and 900 miles away and fuck yeah its tough. We've considered moving back to MD, but the place where my parents live is so goddamn expensive. And my parents drive me nuts if I'm around them for more than ~4 days. Its cheaper where my wife's family is, but they're not in great shape and they're not physically capable of caring for our children for more than a couple hours at a time. Well and they drive me nuts too, maybe me an Taylor Swift are onto something here (I'm the problem).
As for the actual cost of having kids, I have a theory that its somewhat of a "prisoner's dilemma". I know that's an insensitive term, but bear with me. The more people that DON'T have kids, the more money there is in the economy to buy things that aren't daycare, which means those things are more expensive than they would be otherwise. If you break from the "prison" of having kids, its easier for you, but now instead of paying an extra mortgage for daycare, you can now spend 2x a much on your house, driving up housing and making it worse for the other "prisoners". A HCOL area seems the perfect place to observe chickens and eggs rolling around...are people having less kids because its too expensive or is it expensive because people have less kids? I need to write to Stephen Dubner, maybe he can do a Freakonomics podcast about it.
Especially if the brunt of it falls to women.
Ugh. Yeah, I wonder about this, this is a frustrating problem. Our family is pretty traditional, I make more money than my wife because she's in a chronically underpaid female job role, so when she had the opportunity to go 3x a week to spend more time with our kids, she jumped on it. As a result, she does way more child-rearing than me. If she made more money though, I'd probably try to get a shorter week to spend more time. Or would I? The "mom gangs" at the park on mid-day weekday are pretty exclusive. My kid will play with their kids but I'm sitting on a bench by myself while they have their exclusive sense of community. I'm not offended, but I was joking about it to a male friend whose wife is a doctor and he's a stay at home dad (one of my few liberal couple friends with children) and its a real thing. I'm not sure I'd enjoy it if I was in his position.