The IEA released an emissions calculator for ICE vs. EV vs. PHEV. It allows you to look and adjust the assumptions that always come up in these discussions. The "but what if I don't drive much" questions comes up a lot here.
Now you can answer the question for yourself. See:
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/ev-life-cycle-assessment-calculator
TLDR: EV's do come out ahead in every scenario.
Except the scenarios where they don't. Play with the tool. If you don't drive a lot or own the car a long time, ICE comes out ahead.
Driving 5km a day (~1135 miles per year):
Small vehicle: EV catches ICE at 2 years
Medium vehicle: EV catches ICE at 6 years
Large vehicle: EV catches ICE at 11 years
SUV: EV catches ICE at 11 years
Truck: EV catches ICE at 15.x years
You're right, if you drive under 100 miles a month and replace your entire car once it has anywhere from 2300 miles to 17.5k miles on it, ICE may actually come out ahead.
Now, let's say you drive ~3400 miles a year, or about 76% less than average:
Small vehicle: EV catches ICE immediately
Medium vehicle: EV catches ICE at 1 year
Large vehicle: EV catches ICE at 3 years
SUV: EV catches ICE at 3 years
Truck: EV catches ICE at 5 years
Hopefully nobody here is buying new cars before their first set of tires wear out, though.