Author Topic: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?  (Read 801024 times)

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4850 on: June 05, 2024, 01:32:03 PM »
Mileage tax seems a lot more reasonable than a GPS tracking approach.

On the surface, yes, it would be simpler. But then there’s the issue of miles driven out-of-state, or commuters that live and register cars in an adjacent state but work and shop and drive in another. It’s the reason we say that the devil is in the details.

GilesMM

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4851 on: June 05, 2024, 02:04:59 PM »
Mileage tax seems a lot more reasonable than a GPS tracking approach.

On the surface, yes, it would be simpler. But then there’s the issue of miles driven out-of-state, or commuters that live and register cars in an adjacent state but work and shop and drive in another. It’s the reason we say that the devil is in the details.


Or miles driven on city roads vs county roads vs federal highways.  I like the GPS idea better to accurately track usage and then bill accordingly. Basically every road becomes a toll road.

Just Joe

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4852 on: June 05, 2024, 02:51:56 PM »
You can get a used Model 3 for $19k here, so it's not even expensive to buy up front.  Plus little/no maintenance because there's no engine and the brakes last forever.  If you can charge at home, it's also 5x less expensive to drive, per mile.

Charging at home is great for convenience and costs. But in many states, EVs are charged registration fees to offset the lack of fuel/road tax they pay for skipping the gas station. These annual fees can be hundreds of dollars, which can erase or even eclipse any cost benefit of reduced maintenance.

https://insideevs.com/features/721229/states-electric-car-fees/

Insurance rates vary of course, but the general trend seems to be that EVs have higher rates than ICEs so that cost should be considered as well.

Yep my state hit us with a $200 registration fee. Subtract the normal fee and we still paid ~$150. However comparing the EV tax vs gas tax, it looks like it is similar to driving about 10,000 miles assuming I can math properly.

EVs are still not a home run choice IMHO. There are many potential expensive pitfalls but then - a modern ICEV does too.

I think EV ownership will be more affordable once independent EV repair shops pop up that aren't just dealer style parts swappers at dealer prices. We'll need shops that can break the battery down and repair it at the cell level or repair the inverter circuits or whatever needs to be done.

Pick something with a good warranty if you go EV shopping.At least the Leaf has a solid following of independent shops and tinkerers. if our Kona ever has an out of warranty failure that I can't repair, I'll put it on a trailer and drag it to one of the independent EV shops out of state if necessary. I'm a good parts swapper but I'm not a good miniature circuits tech.

The federally mandated minimum battery warranty is 8 years / 100k miles.

True but there are abundant stories of slow warranty battery replacements, inexperienced dealers, greedy dealers, etc. Some of the slow battery replacements were related to the pandemic supply chain issues but some were not. There are also stories of EVs being totaled for relatively minor mishaps.

Just Joe

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4853 on: June 05, 2024, 02:53:22 PM »
I think EV ownership will be more affordable once independent EV repair shops pop up that aren't just dealer style parts swappers at dealer prices. We'll need shops that can break the battery down and repair it at the cell level or repair the inverter circuits or whatever needs to be done.

Pick something with a good warranty if you go EV shopping.At least the Leaf has a solid following of independent shops and tinkerers. if our Kona ever has an out of warranty failure that I can't repair, I'll put it on a trailer and drag it to one of the independent EV shops out of state if necessary. I'm a good parts swapper but I'm not a good miniature circuits tech.

A friend has an older sub-100 mile Fiat 500e.  I don't know if you're anywhere near NC, but she highly recommends Matt's Auto Shop in Garner (just outside Raleigh) for EV repair.

No,not close but good to know. I have a notes document I build for each expensive thing we own. Any time I see useful info, I add it to the document. 

Just Joe

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4854 on: June 05, 2024, 02:56:01 PM »
These vehicle also pay the most in fuel taxes because they consume a ton of fuel, and diesel is taxed at higher rates than gasoline.
You also need less diesel than gasoline.

Unless your diesel vehicle is twice as large. ;)

VW cars get great gas mileage. My buddy's Ford F-350 doesn't. Perhaps a little better than a gasoline powered F-350.

pecunia

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4855 on: June 05, 2024, 03:02:13 PM »
There's one aspect to getting an electric car that makes me very, very reluctant to commit to one. That's the charging station situation. Because of the Sherman Anti-Trust Act there's enough momentum behind separate, competitive gasoline providing. Not so in EV charging. Now that Sherman has been basically gutted, the economy and legal system have become much more monopoly-friendly. I'm aware that EV charging is one industry that's very attractive to private equity, and that's a recipe for price gouging.

In my experience, every time I have to interact with a monopoly-controlled service provider or product, I end up paying way more and getting way less because of the price gouging that invariably results. Absent effective anti-trust law, it seems to me to be a bad idea to paint myself into a corner to the point where I end up forced to do business with a monopoly. It just doesn't seem like effective money management, to me, to set myself up for that. It's bad enough to have to endure price-gouging in times of shortage or natural disaster; I don't believe I have the right to set myself and my family up to experience it when times are, well, normal.

I look at the regulated electric market served to me by local monopoly.  My bill is consistently less than the non regulated competitive internet bill. (at least less regulated)  I consider the enormous capital cost that was made by the utility as compared to that of the internet provider and think WTF.  Perhaps when there are enough chargers out there, the cost of these too will be regulated.  I just don't think the capital cost of putting in a bank of charging stations is enormous.  Regulations could allow adequate profit to the developer and reasonable price to the consumer.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4856 on: June 05, 2024, 11:22:15 PM »
My view is that the fairest way for usage taxes may well be to effectively put electronic toll booths on all major routes/highways and link it to the registration plate.

That sorts out the miles out of state issue and then prices could be set to differ between country/city and potentially also different times of day.

EVs did have a per kilometre tax here for a couple of years until it was found to be unconstitutional (only the federal government can charge an excise), and one has recently been implemented in NZ.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4857 on: June 06, 2024, 05:49:54 AM »

True but there are abundant stories of slow warranty battery replacements, inexperienced dealers, greedy dealers, etc. Some of the slow battery replacements were related to the pandemic supply chain issues but some were not. There are also stories of EVs being totaled for relatively minor mishaps.

There are abundant stories of cars which required extremely expensive repairs or were effectively totaled for small mishaps. This is not unique to EVs.

NorCal

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4858 on: June 06, 2024, 07:07:48 AM »
The IEA released an emissions calculator for ICE vs. EV vs. PHEV.  It allows you to look and adjust the assumptions that always come up in these discussions.  The "but what if I don't drive much" questions comes up a lot here. 

Now you can answer the question for yourself.  See:

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/ev-life-cycle-assessment-calculator

TLDR: EV's do come out ahead in every scenario. 

Just Joe

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4859 on: June 06, 2024, 07:26:00 AM »

True but there are abundant stories of slow warranty battery replacements, inexperienced dealers, greedy dealers, etc. Some of the slow battery replacements were related to the pandemic supply chain issues but some were not. There are also stories of EVs being totaled for relatively minor mishaps.

There are abundant stories of cars which required extremely expensive repairs or were effectively totaled for small mishaps. This is not unique to EVs.

Can't argue with that. There are a few YouTube videos that quote prices higher than the original cost of the EV to replace the batteries. Naturally this is a great chance for the skeptics to hammer EVs on YouTube and other public forums.

TLDR: Appears to be very minor damage. Not well inspected by the dealer, owner or manufacturer. The manufacturer misses out on a huge opportunity to make it right. Of course making it right might attract more folks who intentionally damage their batteries to get new batteries for free.

https://youtu.be/dr3mFzh0KSk

And - we continue to enjoy our Kona EV. We'll certainly continue to have a bigger family car for long trips but I think we'll always have an EV for trips within our state.

GilesMM

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4860 on: June 06, 2024, 07:56:46 AM »
The IEA released an emissions calculator for ICE vs. EV vs. PHEV.  It allows you to look and adjust the assumptions that always come up in these discussions.  The "but what if I don't drive much" questions comes up a lot here. 

Now you can answer the question for yourself.  See:

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/ev-life-cycle-assessment-calculator

TLDR: EV's do come out ahead in every scenario.


Except the scenarios where they don't.  Play with the tool.  If you don't drive a lot or own the car a long time, ICE comes out ahead.

RWD

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4861 on: June 06, 2024, 08:10:46 AM »
The IEA released an emissions calculator for ICE vs. EV vs. PHEV.  It allows you to look and adjust the assumptions that always come up in these discussions.  The "but what if I don't drive much" questions comes up a lot here. 

Now you can answer the question for yourself.  See:

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/ev-life-cycle-assessment-calculator

TLDR: EV's do come out ahead in every scenario.

Except the scenarios where they don't.  Play with the tool.  If you don't drive a lot or own the car a long time, ICE comes out ahead.

The break-even point appears to be about 10k-20k miles. Total. That's a really low bar to hit for lifetime ownership.

JLee

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4862 on: June 06, 2024, 08:14:20 AM »
The IEA released an emissions calculator for ICE vs. EV vs. PHEV.  It allows you to look and adjust the assumptions that always come up in these discussions.  The "but what if I don't drive much" questions comes up a lot here. 

Now you can answer the question for yourself.  See:

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/ev-life-cycle-assessment-calculator

TLDR: EV's do come out ahead in every scenario.


Except the scenarios where they don't.  Play with the tool.  If you don't drive a lot or own the car a long time, ICE comes out ahead.

Driving 5km a day (~1135 miles per year):
Small vehicle: EV catches ICE at 2 years
Medium vehicle: EV catches ICE at 6 years
Large vehicle: EV catches ICE at 11 years
SUV: EV catches ICE at 11 years
Truck: EV catches ICE at 15.x years

You're right, if you drive under 100 miles a month and replace your entire car once it has anywhere from 2300 miles to 17.5k miles on it, ICE may actually come out ahead.

Now, let's say you drive ~3400 miles a year, or about 76% less than average:
Small vehicle: EV catches ICE immediately
Medium vehicle: EV catches ICE at 1 year
Large vehicle: EV catches ICE at 3 years
SUV: EV catches ICE at 3 years
Truck: EV catches ICE at 5 years

Hopefully nobody here is buying new cars before their first set of tires wear out, though.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4863 on: June 06, 2024, 08:18:08 AM »
The IEA released an emissions calculator for ICE vs. EV vs. PHEV.  It allows you to look and adjust the assumptions that always come up in these discussions.  The "but what if I don't drive much" questions comes up a lot here. 

Now you can answer the question for yourself.  See:

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/ev-life-cycle-assessment-calculator

TLDR: EV's do come out ahead in every scenario.

Perhaps I'm doing something incorrectly, but the maximum range that I can enter is 300km or just 186 miles. Most EVs being sold in the US offer much longer range, which they achieve through bigger batteries that use more materials (larger carbon footprint upfront).

There's also a big difference in battery capacity between a 300km midsize sedan and a 300km EV truck like a Lightning. 180 miles of range in an aerodynamic car could use a battery that's 40-45kwh. If you want that in a big truck, it's going to take more like 80-90kwh. Some of the bigger EVs are coming with 150-200kwh batteries these days, and that takes a lot longer to offset environmentally.

I also see zero consideration for the battery chemistry involved, and that can have an impact as well.

JLee

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4864 on: June 06, 2024, 08:27:26 AM »
The IEA released an emissions calculator for ICE vs. EV vs. PHEV.  It allows you to look and adjust the assumptions that always come up in these discussions.  The "but what if I don't drive much" questions comes up a lot here. 

Now you can answer the question for yourself.  See:

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/ev-life-cycle-assessment-calculator

TLDR: EV's do come out ahead in every scenario.

Perhaps I'm doing something incorrectly, but the maximum range that I can enter is 300km or just 186 miles. Most EVs being sold in the US offer much longer range, which they achieve through bigger batteries that use more materials (larger carbon footprint upfront).

There's also a big difference in battery capacity between a 300km midsize sedan and a 300km EV truck like a Lightning. 180 miles of range in an aerodynamic car could use a battery that's 40-45kwh. If you want that in a big truck, it's going to take more like 80-90kwh. Some of the bigger EVs are coming with 150-200kwh batteries these days, and that takes a lot longer to offset environmentally.

I also see zero consideration for the battery chemistry involved, and that can have an impact as well.

It's under 'battery EV', and the max size appears to change based on the vehicle type. It doesn't make as much of a difference as you might expect, and changing the power delivery method also has a huge impact.

This is assuming 2 mi / kWh for the EV (500Wh / mile) and 21mpg for an EV truck, which is optimistic for ICE given 2024 F150's on Fuelly are averaging 16.6 mpg across the board. 



If you're mostly renewable (e.g. I have a solar array on my house, as do many others) it also has a dramatic impact, nearly flattening the EV curve.

« Last Edit: June 06, 2024, 08:30:46 AM by JLee »

GuitarStv

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4865 on: June 06, 2024, 08:35:39 AM »
Hopefully nobody here is buying new cars before their first set of tires wear out, though.

Uhhh . . . but that's what you do, right?  When the tires wear out it's time to get a new car.  Otherwise it's unsafe to drive!

bacchi

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4866 on: June 06, 2024, 08:38:13 AM »
The IEA released an emissions calculator for ICE vs. EV vs. PHEV.  It allows you to look and adjust the assumptions that always come up in these discussions.  The "but what if I don't drive much" questions comes up a lot here. 

Now you can answer the question for yourself.  See:

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/ev-life-cycle-assessment-calculator

TLDR: EV's do come out ahead in every scenario.

Perhaps I'm doing something incorrectly, but the maximum range that I can enter is 300km or just 186 miles. Most EVs being sold in the US offer much longer range, which they achieve through bigger batteries that use more materials (larger carbon footprint upfront).

There's also a big difference in battery capacity between a 300km midsize sedan and a 300km EV truck like a Lightning. 180 miles of range in an aerodynamic car could use a battery that's 40-45kwh. If you want that in a big truck, it's going to take more like 80-90kwh. Some of the bigger EVs are coming with 150-200kwh batteries these days, and that takes a lot longer to offset environmentally.

I also see zero consideration for the battery chemistry involved, and that can have an impact as well.

It's under 'battery EV', and the max size appears to change based on the vehicle type. It doesn't make as much of a difference as you might expect, and changing the power delivery method also has a huge impact.

The crossover for a Prius Prime, with 70% BEV driving, is in 2037 when compared to a 300km range BEV, which is low for most BEVs out there. I left the efficiency as the default (22.3 kWh/100km). Anyone want to give me the efficiency for some common BEVs?

GuitarStv

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4867 on: June 06, 2024, 08:42:46 AM »
The IEA released an emissions calculator for ICE vs. EV vs. PHEV.  It allows you to look and adjust the assumptions that always come up in these discussions.  The "but what if I don't drive much" questions comes up a lot here. 

Now you can answer the question for yourself.  See:

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/ev-life-cycle-assessment-calculator

TLDR: EV's do come out ahead in every scenario.

Perhaps I'm doing something incorrectly, but the maximum range that I can enter is 300km or just 186 miles. Most EVs being sold in the US offer much longer range, which they achieve through bigger batteries that use more materials (larger carbon footprint upfront).

There's also a big difference in battery capacity between a 300km midsize sedan and a 300km EV truck like a Lightning. 180 miles of range in an aerodynamic car could use a battery that's 40-45kwh. If you want that in a big truck, it's going to take more like 80-90kwh. Some of the bigger EVs are coming with 150-200kwh batteries these days, and that takes a lot longer to offset environmentally.

I also see zero consideration for the battery chemistry involved, and that can have an impact as well.

It's under 'battery EV', and the max size appears to change based on the vehicle type. It doesn't make as much of a difference as you might expect, and changing the power delivery method also has a huge impact.

The crossover for a Prius Prime, with 70% BEV driving, is in 2037 when compared to a 300km range BEV, which is low for most BEVs out there. I left the efficiency as the default (22.3 kWh/100km). Anyone want to give me the efficiency for some common BEVs?

A quick google search suggests that the 22.3 kWh/100 km seems wildy optimisitic.

https://ev-database.org/cheatsheet/energy-consumption-electric-car

The most efficient car measured is 139 kWh/100 km, with average being 188.

GilesMM

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4868 on: June 06, 2024, 08:44:00 AM »
The IEA released an emissions calculator for ICE vs. EV vs. PHEV.  It allows you to look and adjust the assumptions that always come up in these discussions.  The "but what if I don't drive much" questions comes up a lot here. 

Now you can answer the question for yourself.  See:

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/ev-life-cycle-assessment-calculator

TLDR: EV's do come out ahead in every scenario.

Except the scenarios where they don't.  Play with the tool.  If you don't drive a lot or own the car a long time, ICE comes out ahead.

The break-even point appears to be about 10k-20k miles. Total. That's a really low bar to hit for lifetime ownership.


Not for a Mustachian working from home and biking year-round!!

GuitarStv

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4869 on: June 06, 2024, 08:45:35 AM »
Wait, I'm an idiot.  Wrong units - that's Wh, not kWh.  Looks like efficiency is generally much better than the tool assumes.

GilesMM

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4870 on: June 06, 2024, 08:47:06 AM »
Hopefully nobody here is buying new cars before their first set of tires wear out, though.

Uhhh . . . but that's what you do, right?  When the tires wear out it's time to get a new car.  Otherwise it's unsafe to drive!


My father was famous for selling a car if there was any maintenance issue coming up that was less than minor.  It helped he lived in a state and city free of sales tax so buying and selling used cars was a sort of sport for him. 

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4871 on: June 06, 2024, 08:48:19 AM »
The IEA released an emissions calculator for ICE vs. EV vs. PHEV.  It allows you to look and adjust the assumptions that always come up in these discussions.  The "but what if I don't drive much" questions comes up a lot here. 

Now you can answer the question for yourself.  See:

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/ev-life-cycle-assessment-calculator

TLDR: EV's do come out ahead in every scenario.

Perhaps I'm doing something incorrectly, but the maximum range that I can enter is 300km or just 186 miles. Most EVs being sold in the US offer much longer range, which they achieve through bigger batteries that use more materials (larger carbon footprint upfront).

There's also a big difference in battery capacity between a 300km midsize sedan and a 300km EV truck like a Lightning. 180 miles of range in an aerodynamic car could use a battery that's 40-45kwh. If you want that in a big truck, it's going to take more like 80-90kwh. Some of the bigger EVs are coming with 150-200kwh batteries these days, and that takes a lot longer to offset environmentally.

I also see zero consideration for the battery chemistry involved, and that can have an impact as well.

It's under 'battery EV', and the max size appears to change based on the vehicle type. It doesn't make as much of a difference as you might expect, and changing the power delivery method also has a huge impact.

The crossover for a Prius Prime, with 70% BEV driving, is in 2037 when compared to a 300km range BEV, which is low for most BEVs out there. I left the efficiency as the default (22.3 kWh/100km). Anyone want to give me the efficiency for some common BEVs?

A quick google search suggests that the 22.3 kWh/100 km seems wildy optimisitic.

https://ev-database.org/cheatsheet/energy-consumption-electric-car

The most efficient car measured is 139 kWh/100 km, with average being 188.

Reread the respective units of measure.

22.3 kWh / 100km is 22.3 Wh / km.

If my Rivian got 188 kWh / 100 km, I would have a range of 43 miles.

Edit: you figured it out already :P

bacchi

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4872 on: June 06, 2024, 08:53:41 AM »
Wait, I'm an idiot.  Wrong units - that's Wh, not kWh.  Looks like efficiency is generally much better than the tool assumes.

Well, the tool assumes a max battery size of 300km for a medium car, too. A Tesla 3 SR has a range of 437km (hahaha) 400?km. Adding 100km range really makes a difference when comparing to a PHEV, even if the PHEV is only used 50% of the time in EV mode.

I bet the javascript can be changed to allow values outside of the range.

NorCal

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4873 on: June 06, 2024, 09:05:23 AM »
One thing I like about this calculator is the emissions from energy production (well to tank).  That's commonly ignored in these calculations.

The emissions from creating and distributing the gasoline is higher than the emissions from creating the batteries in most scenarios.  Which makes sense, but it's a commonly ignored factor. 

bacchi

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4874 on: June 06, 2024, 09:06:36 AM »
Wait, I'm an idiot.  Wrong units - that's Wh, not kWh.  Looks like efficiency is generally much better than the tool assumes.

Well, the tool assumes a max battery size of 300km for a medium car, too. A Tesla 3 SR has a range of 437km (hahaha) 400?km. Adding 100km range really makes a difference when comparing to a PHEV, even if the PHEV is only used 50% of the time in EV mode.

I bet the javascript can be changed to allow values outside of the range.

I think I changed it to allow 13.7kwh/100km by altering the slider minimum in the js. I couldn't figure out how to alter the range. Compared to a 50% Prime, the crossover point is 2030. A 300km range car is a...Leaf?
« Last Edit: June 06, 2024, 09:08:54 AM by bacchi »

Just Joe

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4875 on: June 06, 2024, 10:32:26 AM »
The IEA released an emissions calculator for ICE vs. EV vs. PHEV.  It allows you to look and adjust the assumptions that always come up in these discussions.  The "but what if I don't drive much" questions comes up a lot here. 

Now you can answer the question for yourself.  See:

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/ev-life-cycle-assessment-calculator

TLDR: EV's do come out ahead in every scenario.

Perhaps I'm doing something incorrectly, but the maximum range that I can enter is 300km or just 186 miles. Most EVs being sold in the US offer much longer range, which they achieve through bigger batteries that use more materials (larger carbon footprint upfront).

There's also a big difference in battery capacity between a 300km midsize sedan and a 300km EV truck like a Lightning. 180 miles of range in an aerodynamic car could use a battery that's 40-45kwh. If you want that in a big truck, it's going to take more like 80-90kwh. Some of the bigger EVs are coming with 150-200kwh batteries these days, and that takes a lot longer to offset environmentally.

I also see zero consideration for the battery chemistry involved, and that can have an impact as well.

It's under 'battery EV', and the max size appears to change based on the vehicle type. It doesn't make as much of a difference as you might expect, and changing the power delivery method also has a huge impact.

The crossover for a Prius Prime, with 70% BEV driving, is in 2037 when compared to a 300km range BEV, which is low for most BEVs out there. I left the efficiency as the default (22.3 kWh/100km). Anyone want to give me the efficiency for some common BEVs?

I'm seeing 4.8 mi/kwh in our Kona. 4.6 mi/kwh if I include the 650 mile trip we took (last 1500 miles).

I remember seeing ~4 mi/kwh in the Leafs my employer has that is shared among us employees with different driving styles. 

Edited to add that a Leaf Plus has a 62 KWH battery and has a top range of ~350 km under the right conditions.

https://www.aqua-calc.com/convert/electric-car-energy-economy/mile-per-kilowatt-hour-to-kilowatt-hour-per-100-kilometers
« Last Edit: June 06, 2024, 10:46:19 AM by Just Joe »

NorCal

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4876 on: June 06, 2024, 02:55:05 PM »
The IEA released an emissions calculator for ICE vs. EV vs. PHEV.  It allows you to look and adjust the assumptions that always come up in these discussions.  The "but what if I don't drive much" questions comes up a lot here. 

Now you can answer the question for yourself.  See:

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/ev-life-cycle-assessment-calculator

TLDR: EV's do come out ahead in every scenario.

Perhaps I'm doing something incorrectly, but the maximum range that I can enter is 300km or just 186 miles. Most EVs being sold in the US offer much longer range, which they achieve through bigger batteries that use more materials (larger carbon footprint upfront).

There's also a big difference in battery capacity between a 300km midsize sedan and a 300km EV truck like a Lightning. 180 miles of range in an aerodynamic car could use a battery that's 40-45kwh. If you want that in a big truck, it's going to take more like 80-90kwh. Some of the bigger EVs are coming with 150-200kwh batteries these days, and that takes a lot longer to offset environmentally.

I also see zero consideration for the battery chemistry involved, and that can have an impact as well.

It's under 'battery EV', and the max size appears to change based on the vehicle type. It doesn't make as much of a difference as you might expect, and changing the power delivery method also has a huge impact.

The crossover for a Prius Prime, with 70% BEV driving, is in 2037 when compared to a 300km range BEV, which is low for most BEVs out there. I left the efficiency as the default (22.3 kWh/100km). Anyone want to give me the efficiency for some common BEVs?

Smaller EV's can get around 4mi/kWh.  Midsize crossover's (Model Y, Mach-E, etc) get around 3.0-3.5mi/kWh.  Trucks like the Rivian or F150 get between 2.0-2.5mi / kWh.

You should use the lower end of the range for the purposes of this calculation.  There's ~10% energy loss between your power meter and the battery due to heat and AC to DC conversion. 

I looked into their underlying assumptions.  They're using a global average for battery composition.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4877 on: June 06, 2024, 03:16:37 PM »
The IEA released an emissions calculator for ICE vs. EV vs. PHEV.  It allows you to look and adjust the assumptions that always come up in these discussions.  The "but what if I don't drive much" questions comes up a lot here. 

Now you can answer the question for yourself.  See:

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/ev-life-cycle-assessment-calculator

TLDR: EV's do come out ahead in every scenario.

Perhaps I'm doing something incorrectly, but the maximum range that I can enter is 300km or just 186 miles. Most EVs being sold in the US offer much longer range, which they achieve through bigger batteries that use more materials (larger carbon footprint upfront).

There's also a big difference in battery capacity between a 300km midsize sedan and a 300km EV truck like a Lightning. 180 miles of range in an aerodynamic car could use a battery that's 40-45kwh. If you want that in a big truck, it's going to take more like 80-90kwh. Some of the bigger EVs are coming with 150-200kwh batteries these days, and that takes a lot longer to offset environmentally.

I also see zero consideration for the battery chemistry involved, and that can have an impact as well.

It's under 'battery EV', and the max size appears to change based on the vehicle type. It doesn't make as much of a difference as you might expect, and changing the power delivery method also has a huge impact.

The crossover for a Prius Prime, with 70% BEV driving, is in 2037 when compared to a 300km range BEV, which is low for most BEVs out there. I left the efficiency as the default (22.3 kWh/100km). Anyone want to give me the efficiency for some common BEVs?

My lifetime average(over 25,000 miles) is ~15.7 kWh/100km(253Wh/mile), higher than I'd like but I do a lot of long distance, high speed interstate driving which of course hurts efficiency a lot.  Aerodynamic sedan, one of the most efficient EV's made, so most will be worse than this if driven similarly.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2024, 03:20:28 PM by EchoStache »

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4878 on: June 06, 2024, 03:20:15 PM »
The IEA released an emissions calculator for ICE vs. EV vs. PHEV.  It allows you to look and adjust the assumptions that always come up in these discussions.  The "but what if I don't drive much" questions comes up a lot here. 

Now you can answer the question for yourself.  See:

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/ev-life-cycle-assessment-calculator

TLDR: EV's do come out ahead in every scenario.

Perhaps I'm doing something incorrectly, but the maximum range that I can enter is 300km or just 186 miles. Most EVs being sold in the US offer much longer range, which they achieve through bigger batteries that use more materials (larger carbon footprint upfront).

There's also a big difference in battery capacity between a 300km midsize sedan and a 300km EV truck like a Lightning. 180 miles of range in an aerodynamic car could use a battery that's 40-45kwh. If you want that in a big truck, it's going to take more like 80-90kwh. Some of the bigger EVs are coming with 150-200kwh batteries these days, and that takes a lot longer to offset environmentally.

I also see zero consideration for the battery chemistry involved, and that can have an impact as well.

It's under 'battery EV', and the max size appears to change based on the vehicle type. It doesn't make as much of a difference as you might expect, and changing the power delivery method also has a huge impact.

The crossover for a Prius Prime, with 70% BEV driving, is in 2037 when compared to a 300km range BEV, which is low for most BEVs out there. I left the efficiency as the default (22.3 kWh/100km). Anyone want to give me the efficiency for some common BEVs?

My lifetime average(over 25,000 miles) is ~15.7 kWh/100km(253Wh/mile), higher than I'd like but I do a lot of long distance, high speed interstate driving which of course hurts efficiency a lot.

I calculate an average of 20.8 kWh / 100 km on our Polestar 2, which is one of the least efficient non-SUV/truck EVs you can buy.

EchoStache

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4879 on: June 06, 2024, 03:23:38 PM »

I calculate an average of 20.8 kWh / 100 km on our Polestar 2, which is one of the least efficient non-SUV/truck EVs you can buy.

Quite good for that car then...not much high speed interstate travel?  At best, I get down around 13 kWh/100km (210 Wh/mile) with mixed city/highway but no interstate in warm weather.

How do you like the Polestar?

RWD

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4880 on: June 06, 2024, 04:08:43 PM »

I calculate an average of 20.8 kWh / 100 km on our Polestar 2, which is one of the least efficient non-SUV/truck EVs you can buy.

Quite good for that car then...not much high speed interstate travel?  At best, I get down around 13 kWh/100km (210 Wh/mile) with mixed city/highway but no interstate in warm weather.

How do you like the Polestar?

Nearly half of our miles have been 70+ mph interstate/highway driving (roughly 45%). We've had it for 2.5 years now and done 12k miles. We've been very happy with the Polestar.

Just Joe

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4881 on: June 06, 2024, 05:12:38 PM »
My lifetime average(over 25,000 miles) is ~15.7 kWh/100km(253Wh/mile), higher than I'd like but I do a lot of long distance, high speed interstate driving which of course hurts efficiency a lot.  Aerodynamic sedan, one of the most efficient EV's made, so most will be worse than this if driven similarly.

Adjusted my units: 12.9 kWh/100km for the Kona in mixed driving conditions

That was an early task for me several years back - yardstick quality comparisons just to understand the big picture electrical topics.

EV consumption vs something like an electric water heater, how much power our house consumes per day, etc. What those discrete costs are. Not unusal tro see layman debates in comment sections under news articles where it is clear the skeptics don't know what these big picture amounts are.

Anecdata: seems lately like the comment section of different mainstream articles seem to be warming up to the electric vehicle slightly. More people setting the skeptics straight using reasonable facts and language. And less related - more people calling our the MAGA folks for their rumor grade comments about all subjects. Maybe the skeptics' fever is subsiding?

Both give hope that the long game might remain with the thinkers. 

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4882 on: June 06, 2024, 06:36:51 PM »
I've gotten about 14.75Wh/100km in the Niro for the 6700miles we've driven it, assuming my math is right.  The car claims 4.2mi/kWh, and it's improving slightly now that I've decreased my usage of 1 pedal driving (more coasting, I guess).  I feel like my mix of driving is staying pretty consistent (largely suburban - 35-45mph). My Mom just moved into senior living the same 6 miles away, but in a different direction, so :: shrug ::

NorCal

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4883 on: June 06, 2024, 07:26:57 PM »
My lifetime average in my Rivian is right around 2.25mi/kWh.

It’s closer to 2.0 in the winter, which reflects a combination of cold weather driving, my less efficient snow tires, and more frequent shorter trips.  That’s a 10% winter driving hit on average. Not bad.

But Rivian also announced their refreshed models today. The new version with ~325 mile range now has a 109kWh battery compared to the original versions 135kWh battery for a comparable range. That’s a roughly 20% efficiency gain since it launched a few years back. It makes me confident in the overall direction of the technology, even if it doesn’t do much for immediate affordability.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4884 on: June 07, 2024, 03:04:08 AM »
I'm afraid that I treat these mileage claims with some scepticism, just as I would treat anecdotal ICE mpg claims.

It is very difficult to measure mpg accurately unless you do it over a long period. EVs have similar issues, one of the biggest being where the energy is measured. The cars energy display is looking at energy in and out of the battery without conversion losses. For a meaningful figure you need to measure the energy put into the car and that can be 25% more than the energy shown by the cars meter.

I've always recorded the fuel bought for my ICE cars and I do the same for the EV. It's a Hyundai Ioniq Electric, 38kWh battery, nominal range of 190 miles, chosen because it was the most efficient EVs available (still is) and it was relatively affordable. Over the 11,000 miles that it's done it has had 2805kWh of energy supplied. That is about 3.93 m/kWh or 16 kWh/100km. However, if I look at the data recorded by EVwatchdog for the current year (looking at the battery energy in/out) that shows 5.4 m/kWh or about 13kWh/100km. For some trips that has shown over 5.9 m/kWh. A pretty big discrepancy.

RWD

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4885 on: June 07, 2024, 07:38:41 AM »
I'm afraid that I treat these mileage claims with some scepticism, just as I would treat anecdotal ICE mpg claims.

It is very difficult to measure mpg accurately unless you do it over a long period. EVs have similar issues, one of the biggest being where the energy is measured. The cars energy display is looking at energy in and out of the battery without conversion losses. For a meaningful figure you need to measure the energy put into the car and that can be 25% more than the energy shown by the cars meter.

I've always recorded the fuel bought for my ICE cars and I do the same for the EV. It's a Hyundai Ioniq Electric, 38kWh battery, nominal range of 190 miles, chosen because it was the most efficient EVs available (still is) and it was relatively affordable. Over the 11,000 miles that it's done it has had 2805kWh of energy supplied. That is about 3.93 m/kWh or 16 kWh/100km. However, if I look at the data recorded by EVwatchdog for the current year (looking at the battery energy in/out) that shows 5.4 m/kWh or about 13kWh/100km. For some trips that has shown over 5.9 m/kWh. A pretty big discrepancy.

I have recorded 134 charging sessions, I'm pretty confident in my data at this point. I calculate my DCFC (Level 3) losses at 16%. Home charging (Level 2) losses are around 8%.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4886 on: June 07, 2024, 07:51:45 AM »
I'm afraid that I treat these mileage claims with some scepticism, just as I would treat anecdotal ICE mpg claims.

It is very difficult to measure mpg accurately unless you do it over a long period. EVs have similar issues, one of the biggest being where the energy is measured. The cars energy display is looking at energy in and out of the battery without conversion losses. For a meaningful figure you need to measure the energy put into the car and that can be 25% more than the energy shown by the cars meter.

I've always recorded the fuel bought for my ICE cars and I do the same for the EV. It's a Hyundai Ioniq Electric, 38kWh battery, nominal range of 190 miles, chosen because it was the most efficient EVs available (still is) and it was relatively affordable. Over the 11,000 miles that it's done it has had 2805kWh of energy supplied. That is about 3.93 m/kWh or 16 kWh/100km. However, if I look at the data recorded by EVwatchdog for the current year (looking at the battery energy in/out) that shows 5.4 m/kWh or about 13kWh/100km. For some trips that has shown over 5.9 m/kWh. A pretty big discrepancy.

I have recorded 134 charging sessions, I'm pretty confident in my data at this point. I calculate my DCFC (Level 3) losses at 16%. Home charging (Level 2) losses are around 8%.

How much charge would you lose if the car just sits in a garage (not plugged in) on a cold day?  (Maybe, a warm day for that matter.)  Some of these posts said the battery has its own heater.  Are there parasitic losses like that which can drain the battery?

RWD

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4887 on: June 07, 2024, 08:09:23 AM »
I'm afraid that I treat these mileage claims with some scepticism, just as I would treat anecdotal ICE mpg claims.

It is very difficult to measure mpg accurately unless you do it over a long period. EVs have similar issues, one of the biggest being where the energy is measured. The cars energy display is looking at energy in and out of the battery without conversion losses. For a meaningful figure you need to measure the energy put into the car and that can be 25% more than the energy shown by the cars meter.

I've always recorded the fuel bought for my ICE cars and I do the same for the EV. It's a Hyundai Ioniq Electric, 38kWh battery, nominal range of 190 miles, chosen because it was the most efficient EVs available (still is) and it was relatively affordable. Over the 11,000 miles that it's done it has had 2805kWh of energy supplied. That is about 3.93 m/kWh or 16 kWh/100km. However, if I look at the data recorded by EVwatchdog for the current year (looking at the battery energy in/out) that shows 5.4 m/kWh or about 13kWh/100km. For some trips that has shown over 5.9 m/kWh. A pretty big discrepancy.

I have recorded 134 charging sessions, I'm pretty confident in my data at this point. I calculate my DCFC (Level 3) losses at 16%. Home charging (Level 2) losses are around 8%.

How much charge would you lose if the car just sits in a garage (not plugged in) on a cold day?  (Maybe, a warm day for that matter.)  Some of these posts said the battery has its own heater.  Are there parasitic losses like that which can drain the battery?

It is negligible. Maybe 1% per week. My efficiency numbers I posted earlier are calculated based on starting SoC to ending SoC so parking/idle losses are already baked in. I know some EVs have struggled with parasitic losses, but that's usually for stuff like running Tesla's Sentry Mode.

geekette

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4888 on: June 07, 2024, 08:19:35 AM »
I hadn't thought of charging losses.  I don't have the info for the whole time we've owned the car, but I do have a spreadsheet for the last couple months that show what the charger says it drew to charge the car. 

I charge to 100% at the end of the month, so I start the month with a full "tank" and end up the same.  Last month was 864 miles using 216.52kWh, so it went from the car's reported 4.2mi/kWh down to 4mi/kWh.  Interesting.

NorCal

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4889 on: June 07, 2024, 08:57:44 AM »
I hadn't thought of charging losses.  I don't have the info for the whole time we've owned the car, but I do have a spreadsheet for the last couple months that show what the charger says it drew to charge the car. 

I charge to 100% at the end of the month, so I start the month with a full "tank" and end up the same.  Last month was 864 miles using 216.52kWh, so it went from the car's reported 4.2mi/kWh down to 4mi/kWh.  Interesting.

A general assumption of about 10%ish seems to be common. It’s not nothing, but it’s not big enough to dramatically change the overall story.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4890 on: June 07, 2024, 09:51:34 AM »
I've put just shy of 8k miles on my Tesla Model Y since the beginning of September and I average 262 watts/mile. A few long trips and a combo of highway and non for driving.

Just Joe

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4891 on: June 09, 2024, 09:21:49 PM »
Did another out of town day trip to check on my parents using the Kona. Took my parents all around their metro with the a/c on, we had lunch together, and then stopped at a fast charger for ~$6.50 of electricity.

The entertaining part is watching my semi-skeptical father transition from describing our EV as a great limited use vehicle to realizing what even an ordinary EV like our's is capable of.

His skepticism is fading. I don't care if he ever owns an EV. Its just entertaining to witness the change of opinion.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4892 on: June 10, 2024, 09:19:01 AM »
I went camping with a buddy last weekend - kinda cool to see the two eras side by side. Being able to run a campsite without any propane/gas/etc is pretty awesome...I've converted to an induction burner (or fire, because you gotta have a fire) for ordinary camp cooking.


Just Joe

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4893 on: June 10, 2024, 12:01:48 PM »
Looks like a great camping trip. What part of the world (roughly)?

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4894 on: June 10, 2024, 12:18:19 PM »
Weird - your tent is suspended above the truck somehow?  Does that make the floor of the tent colder?

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4895 on: June 10, 2024, 12:33:22 PM »
I went camping with a buddy last weekend - kinda cool to see the two eras side by side. Being able to run a campsite without any propane/gas/etc is pretty awesome...I've converted to an induction burner (or fire, because you gotta have a fire) for ordinary camp cooking.


Very cool!  Hey does the Rivian have the ability to plug in to outlets at RV parks? 

Parks will generally have 3 types of plugs available at the campsite.
A standard 120V 15A like you have in house.
A "TT-30" plug which is 120v 30A which is used by single air conditioner or smaller campers.
A NEMA 14-50 240V 50A for double air conditioners also known as "Big rigs".

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4896 on: June 10, 2024, 12:56:34 PM »
I went camping with a buddy last weekend - kinda cool to see the two eras side by side. Being able to run a campsite without any propane/gas/etc is pretty awesome...I've converted to an induction burner (or fire, because you gotta have a fire) for ordinary camp cooking.


Very cool!  Hey does the Rivian have the ability to plug in to outlets at RV parks? 

Parks will generally have 3 types of plugs available at the campsite.
A standard 120V 15A like you have in house.
A "TT-30" plug which is 120v 30A which is used by single air conditioner or smaller campers.
A NEMA 14-50 240V 50A for double air conditioners also known as "Big rigs".

NEMA 14-50 is a pretty common plug type for EVSEs, which are available in portable format as well. So effectively any EV could make use of that.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4897 on: June 10, 2024, 04:25:16 PM »
Looks like a great camping trip. What part of the world (roughly)?

That was Stokes State Forest in NJ :)

Weird - your tent is suspended above the truck somehow?  Does that make the floor of the tent colder?

It's a rooftop tent mounted on a bed rack. It's dramatically more insulated compared to a normal ground tent - I don't notice the floor being any colder.



I went camping with a buddy last weekend - kinda cool to see the two eras side by side. Being able to run a campsite without any propane/gas/etc is pretty awesome...I've converted to an induction burner (or fire, because you gotta have a fire) for ordinary camp cooking.


Very cool!  Hey does the Rivian have the ability to

plug in to outlets at RV parks? 

Parks will generally have 3 types of plugs available at the campsite.
A standard 120V 15A like you have in house.
A "TT-30" plug which is 120v 30A which is used by single air conditioner or smaller campers.
A NEMA 14-50 240V 50A for double air conditioners also known as "Big rigs".

NEMA 14-50 is a pretty common plug type for EVSEs, which are available in portable format as well. So effectively any EV could make use of that.

One campground I was at recently had power on site, but only 120v 15 amp and 30 amp outlets.  I did some quick poking around the internet and learned that I can only charge at 12 amps on 120v, even if the outlet is capable of more, so some of the RV outlets aren't really advantageous for me.  I do have a 14-50 plug for my mobile charger in case I run into a 240v outlet though.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4898 on: June 10, 2024, 08:07:25 PM »
Weird - your tent is suspended above the truck somehow?  Does that make the floor of the tent colder?

Might be my vivid childhood and occasional adult memories feeling the ground under a tent floor (never again), but I can't image how this could be colder.

GuitarStv

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #4899 on: June 10, 2024, 08:21:02 PM »
Weird - your tent is suspended above the truck somehow?  Does that make the floor of the tent colder?

Might be my vivid childhood and occasional adult memories feeling the ground under a tent floor (never again), but I can't image how this could be colder.

Heh, I think I was channeling similar childhood memories.  The ground usually sucks away heat through conduction.  Wasn't sure if convection from the air currents would do the same, make it worse, or better.