Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?

[neo von retorch]

In 2018, just under a quarter million EVs were sold in the U.S. About 75% of those were from Tesla. In that same year, over 5.3 million total passenger cars were sold, and another nearly 12 million light trucks, just in the U.S. We love our cars, and we're clearly mostly still buying ones with engines that burn juice from the Earth.

But we really love choice. We love going to dealers (despite the horrible experience) and walking away with a car that perfectly says "Me." And right now, we can only do that with an electric car if "Me" is represented by the mediocre economy box Nissan Leaf, or the fancy, pretty, expensive Tesla Model 3 (or beyond.)

Our American companies that love building gas engines haven't been putting much effort in (to say nothing of Japan or Germany.) GM called it in with the Bolt. While I personally think it's a very interesting car, there's no arguing that it's like the Leaf in dorky appearance, and it's still kind of pricey compared to frugal alternatives.

That might start to change! The Ford Mustang Mach-E⁰ is a CUV with good performance, good range, a reasonable price, and the most recognizable nameplate in America. Of course, classic muscle car buffs will cringe at the name reuse, but I'm making the call now. People will go to Ford dealerships and check these out. And when people do that, despite their best intentions, they often walk away with a shiny car that says "Me." It's small enough to look kind of good, but thanks to the advantages of electric powertrains, it'll also hold American-sized people and stuff, too. And unlike Tesla, things like AWD ($2700) and colors other than white ($400-600) will be reasonably priced. Altogether you can pay $8100 to get the extended-range ($5000) AWD version in rapid red, sparkling white, or Ford's iconic blue. Compare that to the long-range, AWD options of Tesla (to say nothing of their crazy paint color and fancy rim upcharges!) And in the Southern half of the U.S., people can skip the AWD and enjoy the fun of RWD with all that electric motor power.

So my prediction is that this is the bellwether we've been waiting for. A major player with a massive fan-base and dealer network, the resources and partners to ensure an accessible charging network is finally building an electric car Americans will want to buy. Others will finally follow, and once the American car-buying public has appealing choices with electric motors, they'll finally start buying them in large quantities.

⁰ https://www.ford.com/suvs/mach-e/2021/

[Norioch]

I drive a Chevy Volt and I love it. It's a plug-in hybrid with a >50 mile electric range, and I very rarely have to use the gas engine. I don't intend to ever go back to ICE cars and I plan on getting a full BEV for my next car.

[Roland of Gilead]

Electric pickup trucks are coming in 2021 and 2022 from a few of the manufacturers (Ford, Tesla and....GM?).

800hp and can tow 11,000 pounds

If they have any kind of range at all, they will be popular.

[Travis]

If they have any kind of range at all, they will be popular.

For me this is the X factor in buying an electric car.  We do A LOT of cross-state (western US) driving that we'll continue to do after retiring and settling down.  Until charge mileage or recharging infrastructure is big enough for me to feel comfortable driving those kinds of trips I'm holding off. In the meantime I'm driving a ten year old Prius.

[ministashy]

I just recently bought a new(ish) car, and despite being a complete treehugger, ended up getting a standard ICE--not because I didn't want a hybrid or electric, but because my complex does not offer any plug-ins (and I assume most folks who live in older/lower end complexes are in this boat) and because I didn't want to risk having to shell out $$$$ for a replacement battery on a hybrid. 

As much as I want to get away from fossil fuels, both of those things will need to change (or my economic situation would have to improve radically) before I can buy an electric.  In the meantime, I just try to drive as little as possible.

[Linea_Norway]

Good to hear that Americans are going over to EVs as well. As almost all of them commute by car.

We looked into the Ford e Mustang. It looks very promising with long range and reasonable price. But we find it a bit small for luggage for our purpose.

[neo von retorch]

@ministashy Yes - this will definitely continue to be a factor. I cannot imagine it going away any time soon. For many, even a PHEV makes no sense over a hybrid or ICE vehicle, with no convenient overnight place to plug in. My own situation is ideal for one electric car and tenable for two, but not ideal.

But I believe there are still lots and lots of car-buying public with two car garages, but they want a moderately priced, nicely appointed SUV. And they just want choice. The Model X is obscenely priced ($75k+). On the other hand, it's not hard to price a RAV4 or CR-V or Rogue up to the $40k range that some upcoming electric SUVs will play in. (The Model Y should play in a more reasonable range.)

I mention those particular SUVs because they are top-selling vehicles in the U.S: https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2019-us-vehicle-sales-figures-by-model/#vwspc-section-5 Each of the three individually sold more in 2019 so far than all electric cars sold in the U.S. for all of 2018.

The RAV4 Prime will probably become the best-selling Toyota before long, and we'll be left to wonder when Toyota, Honda and Nissan will go all-electric with their SUVs.

[Greystache]

I think that electric cars will take off in a couple years as the cost of batteries continues to drop. Once they reach price parity with gas engine cars, and we get more variety of types and models, the market will explode. Every household with more than one car could probably benefit from making one of them electric.  There are some markets like Wyoming, with huge distances and bad weather, where they will probably never catch on, but only a million people live there.  The real market for electric vehicles is the suburbs with multi-vehicle households with moderate commutes and crappy mass transit options.

[Linea_Norway]

@ministashy Yes - this will definitely continue to be a factor. I cannot imagine it going away any time soon. For many, even a PHEV makes no sense over a hybrid or ICE vehicle, with no convenient overnight place to plug in. My own situation is ideal for one electric car and tenable for two, but not ideal.

But I believe there are still lots and lots of car-buying public with two car garages, but they want a moderately priced, nicely appointed SUV. And they just want choice. The Model X is obscenely priced ($75k+). On the other hand, it's not hard to price a RAV4 or CR-V or Rogue up to the $40k range that some upcoming electric SUVs will play in. (The Model Y should play in a more reasonable range.)

I mention those particular SUVs because they are top-selling vehicles in the U.S: https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2019-us-vehicle-sales-figures-by-model/#vwspc-section-5 Each of the three individually sold more in 2019 so far than all electric cars sold in the U.S. for all of 2018.

The RAV4 Prime will probably become the best-selling Toyota before long, and we'll be left to wonder when Toyota, Honda and Nissan will go all-electric with their SUVs.

Skoda is making an electric SUV. I think also Audi and Jaguar already have electric SUVs.
Norwegians also like SUVs and in particular 4x4s with the ability to pull a trailer (for garbage disposal). Lots of people, including us, signer up for early ordering of the Skoda.

[neo von retorch]

Oh yes! I don't think the Skoda will come to our shores, but the Audi and Jaguar are around. Electric SUVs are very much high-end luxury items right now. The I-Pace starts at about $70,000 USD. The Audi is a bit more!

[Linea_Norway]

Oh yes! I don't think the Skoda will come to our shores, but the Audi and Jaguar are around. Electric SUVs are very much high-end luxury items right now. The I-Pace starts at about $70,000 USD. The Audi is a bit more!

That is why we are waiting for the Skoda. It is not so very fast and maybe therefore hopefully more reasonably priced.

[BudgetSlasher]

Disclaimer: I started and stopped this post a few times and the wife's next car (sub-6 month purchase window) will be an EV and my next car might be as well (so I'm not anti-EV, in fact I have loved the ones I have driven).

In 2018, just under a quarter million EVs were sold in the U.S. About 75% of those were from Tesla. In that same year, over 5.3 million total passenger cars were sold, and another nearly 12 million light trucks, just in the U.S. We love our cars, and we're clearly mostly still buying ones with engines that burn juice from the Earth.

But we really love choice. We love going to dealers (despite the horrible experience) and walking away with a car that perfectly says "Me." And right now, we can only do that with an electric car if "Me" is represented by the mediocre economy box Nissan Leaf, or the fancy, pretty, expensive Tesla Model 3 (or beyond.)

Or the Fiat 500e, VW e-Golf, Chevy Bolt, Kia Niro Electric, Hyundai Kona Electric, Honda Clarity Electric, or Hyundai Ioniq Electric. (I might be omitting a few more.)

Our American companies that love building gas engines haven't been putting much effort in (to say nothing of Japan or Germany.) GM called it in with the Bolt. While I personally think it's a very interesting car, there's no arguing that it's like the Leaf in dorky appearance, and it's still kind of pricey compared to frugal alternatives.

The cost is likely due to economies of scale and the fact that you have the added cost of the batteries.

That might start to change! The Ford Mustang Mach-E⁰ is a CUV with good performance, good range, a reasonable price, and the most recognizable nameplate in America.

Wait what? The Model 3 starting at $39,490 is fancy, pretty and expensive, but the Mustang Mach-E which starts at (the base "select" model) $43,895 is a reasonable price? (the model Y will start at $43,700 . . .)

The Mach-E is squarely aimed at the Model Y (the CUV variant of the Model 3) from form factor, to timeline, to specs, to the reveal being an attempt to copy Tesla's reveal style (as opposed to the lectures given at most auto reveals), heck it was even given in the same hanger Tesla uses in Tesla's backyard.

Of course, classic muscle car buffs will cringe at the name reuse, but I'm making the call now.

The purist/enthusiast in me is a little put off by idea of an electric CUV Mustang (I am by no means a classic muscle car buff). But Ford is reading the winds; CUVs is where the sales are heading, electric may be where things are heading, and Tesla has all the brand recognition when talking about electric. Mustang instantly brings brand recognition, it is a risk, but I think a good decision from the business side.

People will go to Ford dealerships and check these out. And when people do that, despite their best intentions, they often walk away with a shiny car that says "Me."

From what I have read this is what will be the key. From what I read Ford will have a larger dealer network and inventory for its EV.

I have to drive 3 hours to test drive a Tesla (only to be told, despite making an appointment, that the trim I am interested in is not available for test drive, but there is no real difference between the 2wd and 4wd . . .).

Kia only has one EV dealer in my state. and the list of hurdles goes on and on.

Or other cars are only "compliance" cars, meaning for sale in California or states that follow the CA emissions standards.

I don't know about the "me" bit, but accessible to everyone . . .

It's small enough to look kind of good, but thanks to the advantages of electric powertrains, it'll also hold American-sized people and stuff, too. And unlike Tesla, things like AWD ($2700) and colors other than white ($400-600) will be reasonably priced.

Yeah, Tesla's simplified manufacturing and ordering means there is less customization and bigger jumps in price.

Altogether you can pay $8100 to get the extended-range ($5000) AWD version in rapid red, sparkling white, or Ford's iconic blue. Compare that to the long-range, AWD options of Tesla (to say nothing of their crazy paint color and fancy rim upcharges!) And in the Southern half of the U.S., people can skip the AWD and enjoy the fun of RWD with all that electric motor power.

I agree Tesla can get crazy on paint colors. Only one color at the base price, and then its 750, 1,000, and 2,000 for colors. (Plus 1k for a different interior color).

So my prediction is that this is the bellwether we've been waiting for. A major player with a massive fan-base and dealer network, the resources and partners to ensure an accessible charging network is finally building an electric car Americans will want to buy.

I disagree. $43k (before incentives) is still high.

I won't disagree on fan base.

The network you call accessible, is really VW's network. (A company that aims to to have EV and gas prices equal).

Others will finally follow, and once the American car-buying public has appealing choices with electric motors, they'll finally start buying them in large quantities.

Follow?

Multiple automakers have goals to have multiple electrified models out before 2025. (Many have beaten Ford to the market with and EV and more will match Ford's time table).

Ford is just the most recent news blurb of a trend, that covers Tesla, Volvo, Kia, Hyundai, and others.

⁰ https://www.ford.com/suvs/mach-e/2021/

As far as I can tell, on paper, the Ford is a solid entry.

And when I go to replace my car I will have it in the running. But that running will include a host of long range AWD EVs (to deal with NE snow and winter range loss) that includes the Tesla 3, Byton M-byte, and similar.

My current car is a Subaru Outback, which now starts at $26.7k; and therein lies the problem. Buying another Outback is cheaper than any comparable EV (even with incentives) by probably 10k. And while the wife loves and is waiting for a 2020 model of an EV, with regards to finishes it feels cheap compared to other vehicles at the same price point (with or without incentives).

You like and are excited about the Mustang Mach-E, so am I! Hell it might be the first Mustang I consider (I always have and probably always will call them rustangs). But I do not think it as major a development as you do.

[Linea_Norway]

My current car is a Subaru Outback, which now starts at $26.7k; and therein lies the problem. Buying another Outback is cheaper than any comparable EV (even with incentives) by probably 10k. And while the wife loves and is waiting for a 2020 model of an EV, with regards to finishes it feels cheap compared to other vehicles at the same price point (with or without incentives).

And this is where the state/government should come in with a financial incentive to buy EVs. Here in Norway EV are (still) VAT free, while other cars have 25% VAT. EVs don't pay the yearly 300$ to be allowed to drive on the road, like all other cars do. Therefore EVs are selling as never before.
Here, we saw that the Skoda Superb is 20% cheaper as EV than as fossile fuel car.
There are voices to take away those economic incentives, but they know it will show immediately in the sales percentages. So as long as the government wants people to electrify their cars, the incentives stay in place. And alternative would be to make stricter regulations for cars, California style, that only non-polluting cars could apply with.

[nkt0]

Don't forget there are significant savings in maintenance (offset by replacement batteries) and fuel costs. The latter can be particularly great if you have excess home solar capacity, but even if you're buying from your utility, electricity is cheaper than petrol/gasoline (even in the US).

[neo von retorch]

Don't forget there are significant savings in maintenance (offset by replacement batteries) and fuel costs. The latter can be particularly great if you have excess home solar capacity, but even if you're buying from your utility, electricity is cheaper than petrol/gasoline (even in the US).

Are you trying to sell me on electric cars, or the American consumers?

Long-term savings are a very tough sell on those car-buyers. The evidence shows that they look at the payment size and if they "feel" good about the car they are about to buy. Of course there are factors like what they believe about bad weather, reliability and long-term costs, but they are more minor in the decision-making process.

[neo von retorch]

Fiat 500e, VW e-Golf, Chevy Bolt, Kia Niro Electric, Hyundai Kona Electric, Honda Clarity Electric, or Hyundai Ioniq Electric.

Of these, the Niro and Kona are probably the best bet. They aren't completely hideous, but they are SUVs that start below $40k. They haven't moved the needle significantly. For example, the Niro has sold about 25k total in 2019 (including non-EV), and the Kona about 33k. In general, these are all cars that people do not want to buy. It's great that they exist and provide choice, but they have to be better. Better looking, better size for American car-buyers. Better brand names. The e-Golf actually looks perfect for the few hatchback buyers like me, except for the limited range.

Wait what? The Model 3 starting at $39,490 is fancy, pretty and expensive, but the Mustang Mach-E which starts at (the base "select" model) $43,895 is a reasonable price?

A few problems - first, the Model 3 does not quite appear to be an "every person" car. It kind of is, because a lot of people still kind of like sedans. Combined, over a million Camry, Civic, Corollas and Accords are sold every year. And most of them are cheaper than the Model 3, save for a few of the top trims levels (compared to the base Model 3.) That's the second problem - it's too expensive to get AWD, which starts at $48.5k with weird black rims on a white car. Getting normal-looking rims adds $1500 to the price! And it's still a sedan. More people want SUVs, and people are willing to pay more for them than sedans. So yes, while the Mach-E starts a little higher than the Model 3, it's more reasonably priced. And, of course, practically, the first couple hundred thousand Mach-E buyers will qualify for tax credits, which the Tesla burned through by being kind enough to pioneer mainstream electric vehicles. If the price was better, particularly for AWD, the Model 3 could someday be on my shopping list, because the space inside is close enough to a hatchback to consider. But currently I find the interiors way too spartan for such a high price.

Follow?

Multiple automakers have goals to have multiple electrified models out before 2025.

I only say "follow" in respect to putting forth a car with the looks and nameplate to take buyers away from their own gas vehicles. People will cross-shop a Ford Edge and a Ford Mustang Mach-E. With tax credits in place, the Mach-E is directly competitive with the Edge on price at some trim levels. In most other cases, cars like the Bolt or Model 3 are cars that the few (relatively) very interested electric car shoppers are out considering. And no one is buying the Bolt. So until these various models start coming out with the right combination of desirability, range and price, I don't consider them leaders.

As far as I can tell, on paper, the Ford is a solid entry.

And when I go to replace my car I will have it in the running. But that running will include a host of long range AWD EVs (to deal with NE snow and winter range loss) that includes the Tesla 3, Byton M-byte, and similar.

My current car is a Subaru Outback, which now starts at $26.7k; and therein lies the problem. Buying another Outback is cheaper than any comparable EV (even with incentives) by probably 10k. And while the wife loves and is waiting for a 2020 model of an EV, with regards to finishes it feels cheap compared to other vehicles at the same price point (with or without incentives).

You like and are excited about the Mustang Mach-E, so am I! Hell it might be the first Mustang I consider (I always have and probably always will call them rustangs). But I do not think it as major a development as you do.

Well it's a wild hairy guess about the future, so it's possible I'm wrong. But I don't think so. I think this will have a greater impact on shifting sales from ICE to EV in volume than Tesla has had, and a little kick to the seat of the pants of competitors that are barely tipping their toes in the water. Credit where it's due, Tesla has absolutely led the charge (ha!) in getting this option on people's minds and building the necessary charging network to alleviate range anxiety. If I'm mostly likely to be wrong about anything, it's that the charging network Ford is relying on through VW / Electrify America will still be problematic (read: either too expensive or insufficiently comprehensive; long waiting lines, etc.)

[nkt0]

Are you trying to sell me on electric cars, or the American consumers?

Long-term savings are a very tough sell on those car-buyers. The evidence shows that they look at the payment size and if they "feel" good about the car they are about to buy. Of course there are factors like what they believe about bad weather, reliability and long-term costs, but they are more minor in the decision-making process.

I agree with all of this for traditional (aka older) car buyers. But i think the younger car buyers are slightly more savvy and are interested in things like total cost of ownership and saving in general. We'll have to wait for the boomers to die out (or at least stop driving, but let's be honest, that's kind of the same thing in the US) before the electric switch will gain major momentum. I don't know if there are studies verifying my intuition on this, but it would make for an interesting marketing report!

[BudgetSlasher]

Fiat 500e, VW e-Golf, Chevy Bolt, Kia Niro Electric, Hyundai Kona Electric, Honda Clarity Electric, or Hyundai Ioniq Electric.

Of these, the Niro and Kona are probably the best bet. They aren't completely hideous, but they are SUVs that start below $40k. They haven't moved the needle significantly. For example, the Niro has sold about 25k total in 2019 (including non-EV), and the Kona about 33k. In general, these are all cars that people do not want to buy. It's great that they exist and provide choice, but they have to be better. Better looking, better size for American car-buyers. Better brand names. The e-Golf actually looks perfect for the few hatchback buyers like me, except for the limited range.

You are right about the limited range. I believe many of those are known as a "compliance car", meaning meant to sell in California states that have adopted CA standards. My feeling is generally that these cars are a half-hearted attempt.

I know the Kia sales have been hampered by battery supply constraints, I believe that is part of the reason the now Soul EV was delayed in the US.

(As an aside, there is a high likelihood that the DW's next car will be a 2020 Kona Electric, she is waiting on the 2020's included battery warmer for our cold climate).

You call cars hideous (your opinion), yet argue that electric cars need to be for "me" (the buyer's opinion). I happen to adore the Fiat 500 (and 500e) they are just not practical in terms of space or range.

Wait what? The Model 3 starting at $39,490 is fancy, pretty and expensive, but the Mustang Mach-E which starts at (the base "select" model) $43,895 is a reasonable price?

A few problems - first, the Model 3 does not quite appear to be an "every person" car. It kind of is, because a lot of people still kind of like sedans. Combined, over a million Camry, Civic, Corollas and Accords are sold every year. And most of them are cheaper than the Model 3, save for a few of the top trims levels (compared to the base Model 3.) That's the second problem - it's too expensive to get AWD, which starts at $48.5k with weird black rims on a white car. Getting normal-looking rims adds $1500 to the price! And it's still a sedan. More people want SUVs, and people are willing to pay more for them than sedans. So yes, while the Mach-E starts a little higher than the Model 3, it's more reasonably priced. And, of course, practically, the first couple hundred thousand Mach-E buyers will qualify for tax credits, which the Tesla burned through by being kind enough to pioneer mainstream electric vehicles. If the price was better, particularly for AWD, the Model 3 could someday be on my shopping list, because the space inside is close enough to a hatchback to consider. But currently I find the interiors way too spartan for such a high price.[/quote]

I completely agree the air that Tesla has is not an every man's brand. In my opinion it has the luxury air of BMW/Lexus. It is the reason the DW will not buy a Tesla even though she finds the RWD standard range to be a very good car.

The air it has is one of my concerns when it comes time to replace my car. Even though they currently have the best efficiency, best battery management, most advanced driver assistance, and probably most powerful computer hardware.

As another side note; those ugly black wheels are plastic hubcaps with real wheels underneath. Those covers are supposed to add about 5% range.

Regarding the sedans you mention to compare to the Model 3, yes they are less expensive, but if the Model 3 where an ICE engine those would not be what one was cross shopping.

Yes the Mach-E is a CUV, which is more popular (and thus people may pay more). It is still lock step in pricing with the Model Y.

Follow?

Multiple automakers have goals to have multiple electrified models out before 2025.

I only say "follow" in respect to putting forth a car with the looks and nameplate to take buyers away from their own gas vehicles. People will cross-shop a Ford Edge and a Ford Mustang Mach-E. With tax credits in place, the Mach-E is directly competitive with the Edge on price at some trim levels. In most other cases, cars like the Bolt or Model 3 are cars that the few (relatively) very interested electric car shoppers are out considering. And no one is buying the Bolt. So until these various models start coming out with the right combination of desirability, range and price, I don't consider them leaders.
[/quote]

Again follow Ford? Based on your criteria nameplate and brand to cannibalize existing ICE sales:

Hyundai Kona -> Kona Electric
VW Golf -> E-Golf
Kia Niro -> Niro EV

and announced ones (prior to Ford).

Kia Soul -> Soul EV
Volvo XC 40 -> XC40 Recharge

I will skip over company goals to have PHEV/BEVs or concepts that have been revealed, but don't have production dates.

Yes some of these, in terms of timeline, will follow Ford. But they will not be following Ford's leadership.

As far as I can tell, on paper, the Ford is a solid entry.

And when I go to replace my car I will have it in the running. But that running will include a host of long range AWD EVs (to deal with NE snow and winter range loss) that includes the Tesla 3, Byton M-byte, and similar.

My current car is a Subaru Outback, which now starts at $26.7k; and therein lies the problem. Buying another Outback is cheaper than any comparable EV (even with incentives) by probably 10k. And while the wife loves and is waiting for a 2020 model of an EV, with regards to finishes it feels cheap compared to other vehicles at the same price point (with or without incentives).

You like and are excited about the Mustang Mach-E, so am I! Hell it might be the first Mustang I consider (I always have and probably always will call them rustangs). But I do not think it as major a development as you do.

Well it's a wild hairy guess about the future, so it's possible I'm wrong. But I don't think so. I think this will have a greater impact on shifting sales from ICE to EV in volume than Tesla has had, and a little kick to the seat of the pants of competitors that are barely tipping their toes in the water. Credit where it's due, Tesla has absolutely led the charge (ha!) in getting this option on people's minds and building the necessary charging network to alleviate range anxiety. If I'm mostly likely to be wrong about anything, it's that the charging network Ford is relying on through VW / Electrify America will still be problematic (read: either too expensive or insufficiently comprehensive; long waiting lines, etc.)

Ford seemingly has a goal of 40 hybrid and full ev by 2022, possibly including an electric F-150.

Volvo seemingly has a goal of 50% EV sales (and the rest hybrid) by 2025 (or 1 million EV Volvos on the road by 2025 depending on source).

Hyundai is aiming for 44 "electrified" models by 2025. (hyundai-kia combined is aiming for 8 by 2022).

VW aims for 50 fully electric models (I presume across all of their brands) by 2025.

GM looks to have plans for 20 EVs by 2023 (though that is aimed at the China market, presumably some of that will bleed to the US). My Google News feed for today informs me that GM has announced a EV pickup for fall of 2021.

I'm probably omitted some plans/goals.

If even a good portion of this comes to pass, I think the first major hurdle of EVs will fall and that is cost. Both because there should be some affordable options (the civics and the like) and due to economy of scale as more and more EV are made and the processes get refined.

Consumer education still needs to a long way. Like I stated, my wife will be buying an EV as her next car; at first she only looked at them to appease me (she was convinced she would hate them) and we fall into the millennial grouping, however after test driving a dozen cars the EV was her favorite without considering the emissions or running costs. Since she has made that decision I cannot count the number of people (of all ages) who are completely clueless on EV (range, changing, performance, cost, running costs, and the list goes on.) Many dealers do not help this; with an EV or two somewhere out back and a sales staff who are not well enough educated on the EV products.

Range and charging times (products of cost) are still an issue. As you mentioned with the e-golf the range on some cars is too small. Winter range drop and driving style can really do a number on real world range. For us we need 200+ miles of rated range to ensure 90+% of all trips can be done without needing to charge.

My biggest fear on EVs (for myself) right now might be called FOMO. An ICE car from 30 years ago is pretty much and ICE car from today. (Same fuel, air bags, seat belts, ect) with incremental changes. Whereas EV charging rates, battery chemistries, and the like have made major evolutionary changes in the last 12 year. If that trend continues what will range, performance, charge time, battery life, and other aspects look like in the next 3-5-10 years? And how will that impact the value of a mass market car sold today?

[neo von retorch]

Well yes, cars have to be for "me" for a lot of people. The popular SUVs and sedans are (in my opinion) boring but they aren't turning people off. I wouldn't call them hideous - they don't have enough design to earn that title. There will always be buyers of "hideous" cars like the Pontiac Aztek (particularly if price and utility happen to be pretty good) but to dominate the automotive market, you generally need to nail each bullet point.

• Inoffensive or attractive
• Affordable / worth the price
• Trusted as capable / reliable

"Ugly" EVs will not sell in large quantities.
Expensive EVs will not sell in large quantities. (But people value SUVs more and thus worth a higher price than sedans.)
Young or tarnished brands do not sell in large quantities. (This changes over time, of course. See Hyundai or Tesla.)

The main reasons people won't buy a Mach-E are the general complaints about electric cars (range, availability of charging, overblown fears of bad weather/cold making the car unusable, etc), as well as brand loyalty (i.e. Chevrolet faithful) or preconceived notions (i.e. only Japanese cars are reliable.

But at least with the price approaching parity with competitive SUVs, and being an already popular brand with plenty of brand loyalists, it has a good shot at "making it."

Beyond this wild hypothesis, any minor points are quibbles. I don't think Ford is some kind of holy brand - whether or not they succeed with this effort. I'm not trying to paint them as that or insinuate they are superior. I just think the Mach-E is a big step towards electric cars a lot of people might actually buy in the United States.

[Linea_Norway]

This must be the new ultra American EV for all the truck lovers.

https://www.tesla.com/no_no/cybertruck

[soccerluvof4]

This must be the new ultra American EV for all the truck lovers.

https://www.tesla.com/no_no/cybertruck

That looks nothing like a truck to me, maybe more a tank. I find it very ugly as well. A truck that looks like a truck I think would do very well.

[Monocle Money Mouth]

The Cybertruck is hideous. The specs look good, and I like the bare stainless body, but it looks like a wooden door stop with wheels. I’m not sure why Tesla went this direction. The form of a pickup truck is a solved problem. There’s probably no way a fleet buyer would ever purchase these either. I hope they go back to the drawing board on this one.

[Roland of Gilead]

The design is growing on me.  The specs are amazing.  0 to 60 in 2.9 seconds, 120V and 240V AC outlets onboard, air compressor on board, air suspension, built in ramp (truck lowers on air to allow loading), 500 mile range

It is also going to be the official truck of Mars, so there is that.

[neo von retorch]

Look up Hummer, H2 and H3 sales as well as the Chevrolet Avalanche and Cadillac Escalade EXT. These are the kinds of novelty status symbol trucks the Cybertruck will follow. Check out how well they sold and how long they were kept on market and it'll preview the future.

[Just Joe]

This must be the new ultra American EV for all the truck lovers.

https://www.tesla.com/no_no/cybertruck

The Pontiac Aztek for 2019... Sorry, I can't warm up to that truck.

https://rivian.com   Now its a little spacey but I could drive/own the Rivian.

What I really want (truck-wise) is:   https://automobiles.honda.com/ridgeline

Please engineer a good EV system and battery for it though. 250 mile range. AWD. No science fiction styling.

The Tesla S is one of the best looking cars on the road today to me, the Model 3 is pretty good though I don't like the dash. Their big commercial truck is interesting. The pickup truck? It leaves me speechless but not in a good way.

I've driven a 2019 Leaf Plus (220 mile range) frequently recently. Belongs to my employer. Nice little car. Feels bigger inside than it looks from the outside. Seems to be bolted together well. Comfortable. Well thought out. Lots of power for a car that size. Will spin the front tires at 20 mph on wet pavement. I'm not in any hurry to buy one at $47K though. Not in a hurry to buy any car at that price point.

Perhaps in another year or two DW and I will search for a Chevy Bolt or Nissan Leaf on the used market. Park our other vehicle in the garage for weekend trips or towing job, use the heck out of an EV for everything else.

https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/car-technology/a29785700/save-gas-with-ford-f150-raptor-tow-charge-a-tesla/

[2sk22]

Don't forget there are significant savings in maintenance (offset by replacement batteries) and fuel costs. The latter can be particularly great if you have excess home solar capacity, but even if you're buying from your utility, electricity is cheaper than petrol/gasoline (even in the US).

We have a very high capacity solar panel installation in our house (8.4 Kw). We currently feed quite a lot of power back into the grid and get excellent 1:1 feed-in tariff. If I bought an electric, I would be mostly powered by my own panels!

We currently have two Hybrids - I drive a Prius v (8 years old) and my wife has a Camry Hybrid (2 years old).  The only reason that I have not already replaced the Prius with an electric is that I barely drive much anymore - I commute by mass transit. But the new electric cars are getting to be so exciting that I may just decide to get one in a couple of years, even if it makes little financial sense.

[js82]

It all hinges on the continued evolution battery technology.  (And a little bit of charging infrastructure - but I don't think that's quite as critical for the first "wave" of adoption)

For a 2-vehicle family, range anxiety shouldn't be an issue for vehicle #2 - EV's make ideal commuter vehicles.  The only thing stopping massive adoption of EV's in this space is cost, and the main thing holding back EV's on cost is still their batteries.

Given the fraction of vehicles that are 2nd/3rd/nth vehicles that don't need to be someone's road-trip vehicle there's a whole lot of market penetration available if companies can simply get EV's down to the point of cost parity - this realistically means ~$30k EV's given the current state of the market.

[Linea_Norway]

The design is growing on me.  The specs are amazing.  0 to 60 in 2.9 seconds, 120V and 240V AC outlets onboard, air compressor on board, air suspension, built in ramp (truck lowers on air to allow loading), 500 mile range

It is also going to be the official truck of Mars, so there is that.

+1

I hated it when I first saw it. But now the design is growing on me as well. The shape is dictated by the fact that the exterior is the exoskeleton.

146k people liked it enough to put in their reservation in 48 hours.

I still think it is ugly, but it might fullfill our needs. Only, if we would buy one with 4x4 and a good range, it comes with a high end price.

[BudgetSlasher]

Beyond this wild hypothesis, any minor points are quibbles. I don't think Ford is some kind of holy brand - whether or not they succeed with this effort. I'm not trying to paint them as that or insinuate they are superior. I just think the Mach-E is a big step towards electric cars a lot of people might actually buy in the United States.

I agree, the Mach-E is a good sign for the future of EVs as part of the trend of more and more EVs, that are not just compliance cars, coming to the market (both from existing brands and from start-ups).

IMO, the biggest hurdle is not going to be availability, it is going to be education/outreach/consumer familiarity. As I mentioned we have decided to buy an EV as the DW's next car and the amount of push-back from friends and family (of all ages, generations, political orientations, and education) is amazing. From older family members believe that a Tesla (with the Supercharger network) cannot go beyond your daily commute, to college educated and work for environmental regulatory agencies insisting that you MUST have a gasoline backup in the electric fails, or people you just think all EVs are a major compromise/sacrifice.

I'm willing to bet this will fade when people can see the charging stations out and about and are exposed to more and more people who drive EVs.

And of course there is still price point.Many people will buy the ICE variant if the EV variant has a higher up front cost.

[Bateaux]

A year or so ago we in the Race from 2M to 3M thread would track our monthly gains and losses in Tesla models.   Really good/Bad month=Model X.  Moderate good/bad month Model S.  Normal month good/bad base Model 3. 

My point.  We watch our accounts flux the price of a Tesla monthly.  Buying one, to put it in the words of Dave Ramsey, doesn't take the sweat off our stash. 
None of us, as far as I know own one.

  Elon hasn't wowed us yet.   

[js82]

146k people liked it enough to put in their reservation in 48 hours.

Some of us grew up playing video games with vehicles that looked a lot like the Cybertruck.  Elon's just hoping it will evoke nostalgia for our low-polygon-count childhoods. ;)

[scantee]

Most Americans are conformists (although they like to think otherwise) so what will really move the needle is when electrics become common enough that most people know someone with one. Once that happens, and purchasing an electric no longer seems like an oddity or affectation, I think we’ll see a very swift movement towards electrics. Totally guessing on when that will happen but I think more than five years and less than ten.

[js82]

Most Americans are conformists (although they like to think otherwise) so what will really move the needle is when electrics become common enough that most people know someone with one. Once that happens, and purchasing an electric no longer seems like an oddity or affectation, I think we’ll see a very swift movement towards electrics. Totally guessing on when that will happen but I think more than five years and less than ten.

I think we're already at the "most people know someone with one" point for the majority of the country.  I don't exactly live in a metropolis, but in the place where I work there are at least 3 EV's (a leaf and a couple model 3's) out of ~100 cars.

I do agree with the sentiment, but I still think the tipping point will be largely dictated by price.

[Linea_Norway]

Beyond this wild hypothesis, any minor points are quibbles. I don't think Ford is some kind of holy brand - whether or not they succeed with this effort. I'm not trying to paint them as that or insinuate they are superior. I just think the Mach-E is a big step towards electric cars a lot of people might actually buy in the United States.

I agree, the Mach-E is a good sign for the future of EVs as part of the trend of more and more EVs, that are not just compliance cars, coming to the market (both from existing brands and from start-ups).

IMO, the biggest hurdle is not going to be availability, it is going to be education/outreach/consumer familiarity. As I mentioned we have decided to buy an EV as the DW's next car and the amount of push-back from friends and family (of all ages, generations, political orientations, and education) is amazing. From older family members believe that a Tesla (with the Supercharger network) cannot go beyond your daily commute, to college educated and work for environmental regulatory agencies insisting that you MUST have a gasoline backup in the electric fails, or people you just think all EVs are a major compromise/sacrifice.

I'm willing to bet this will fade when people can see the charging stations out and about and are exposed to more and more people who drive EVs.

And of course there is still price point.Many people will buy the ICE variant if the EV variant has a higher up front cost.

Familiarity is certainly a point. Here in Norway EVs are very popular, but mostly as secondary car, for commuting. But I now know several people who are having a long range EV as their only or main car, mostly Tesla, but now also BMW.
I am also considering going all electric with 1 car. I am unfamiliar with how EVs and charging works in practice, but I am letting myself get convinced by more experienced users who are all very content about their EVs.

[neo von retorch]

214,176 Ford F-150s were purchased in the U.S. in Q3 of 2019. About the same GM trucks were sold in that time period.

The Model 3 had a huge rush of pre-orders at $1000 each (estimates were something like 400-500k). The 150-200k estimates for the Cybertruck do not surprise me. My neighbor is a fan of classic Ford Rangers, but he thinks the Cybertruck is super cool. Lots of people are talking about it, and while plenty are making fun of it, people will buy it (assuming they get the lights and mirrors, etc. legal without blowing up the price.) But I don't think it'll move the needle much or change the landscape from ICE to electric in any significant way. This is not the truck you're looking for.

[neo von retorch]

For those who want to understand how clean energy and electric cars will do, this great talk by Tony Seba, a futurist, is great.

He argues that the Electric Vehicle, battery storage, and solar power, along with autonomous vehicles, are a perfect example of a 10x exponential process that will wipe fossil fuels off the market in about a decade. This talk was made 2.5 years ago.

https://youtu.be/2b3ttqYDwF0

The only problems with his predictions are:

https://qz.com/1695602/the-average-electric-vehicle-is-getting-cheaper-in-the-us/
EV price not dropping nearly fast enough. ASP of $55k is still firmly in luxury sedan territory. The promise of the $37k Bolt has dissipated (because people don't want it at that price point.)

EV choice not increasing fast enough. (What this thread is all about.)

https://emerj.com/ai-adoption-timelines/self-driving-car-timeline-themselves-top-11-automakers/
Autonomous vehicles not as close to reality as they seemed then.

https://pod-point.com/guides/driver/how-long-to-charge-an-electric-car
It's still too slow to charge your electric car if you're not a wealthy American with a garage, and need to do it away from home. 35 minutes for 100 miles... combined with - IF electric cars actually start selling well to people that need to charge away from home, the queues will build up at these stations. There are lots of neighborhoods in the U.S. designed to be reached by car, but not the ideal for charging an electric car overnight. Perhaps I'll be surprised and a lot of 200' extension cords are in our future.

All of that is to say, EV may someday make fossil fuels obsolete or relegate them to niches. But these are not $200 cell phones. 7.5 years... I don't think it's going to happen by then.

[Just Joe]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/25/perspectives/gm-electric-cars/index.html

I read this more like a delay tactic to sew doubt in mainstream consumer's mind so old school auto manufacturers can sell ICE powered cars and trucks another few years at great profit. I've read that profits are thin on some of the electrics currently sold like the Chevy Bolt. Of course they want to delay electric cars as much as they can. The oil companies too.

EVs are very capable in the current iterations assuming people have a driveway or a garage where they can charge from a dryer plug. How many Americans have a home vs condo/apartment?

EVs are affordable on the used market. That doesn't help GM's bottom line much though.

EV range is fine considering that most of us travel fewer than 40 miles a day. For the folks who drive further, they can choose a 220 mile Leaf, 260 mile Chevy Bolt, 300+ mile Tesla or buy a Chevy Impala. ;)

[neo von retorch]

@Just Joe
I think you're assuming people buy cars based largely on what we like to call in the scientific community "facts."

https://www.nmhc.org/research-insight/quick-facts-figures/quick-facts-resident-demographics/
Roughly 2/3rds seem to have own, and in the case of renters, about a third are single-family (i.e. like to have a driveway if not a garage.)

As a 2-car family, we could pull off replacing both with electric using our one-car garage as well as an extension cord for the second. I don't like the idea of having to plug in my EV during a snowstorm or torrential rain, even if everyone told me "facts are it's totally safe." So I would hesitate given my current situation. My first house, where I lived for 7 years, had no garage. So I'd have been plugging in outside regularly. Doable but not ideal.

And people make buying decisions quite often on how they feel. Now, if instead of getting a barely used ICE hatchback for under $20k, I could get a nice-looking (yes I care, it's stupid but it's not going to change) comparable hatchback I could plug in for about the same price, save money on gas and drivetrain maintenance, and skip going to gas stations, I'd be open to it.

I don't think anything the GM President is saying is too far off-base. I'd just argue that they (all) really need to make more desirable affordable EVs.

[JLee]

As a self-admitted car enthusiast I am distinctly aware of the possibility that I may not buy another ICE car again.  I will likely buy a used Bolt within the next 3 months ($43k sticker in 2017 can now be had for ~$18k used), and when my GX470 gets replaced years down the road I fully expect to have some good EV options (Rivian, Tesla, F150, etc).

I do hope someone comes out with a reasonably affordable fun car -- a Model 3 Performance has potential, but it's still a bit expensive and there's absolutely no competition in that segment today.

[neo von retorch]

So I was mostly looking at stats and photos before, and it totally slipped by me. Ford only plans to produce 50,000 Mach-Es in the first year. The "First Edition" has already sold out... but that's probably 20,000 or less! Ugh.

The Honda E looks cute, but it's not coming to the U.S., and the range wouldn't work here for many people, especially at that price.

Maybe electric cars are expensive to build? :)

On the bright side, my 4 year old car has less than 30,000 miles on it. I've got time... just got to bide my time.

[JLee]

So I was mostly looking at stats and photos before, and it totally slipped by me. Ford only plans to produce 50,000 Mach-Es in the first year. The "First Edition" has already sold out... but that's probably 20,000 or less! Ugh.

The Honda E looks cute, but it's not coming to the U.S., and the range wouldn't work here for many people, especially at that price.

Maybe electric cars are expensive to build? :)

On the bright side, my 4 year old car has less than 30,000 miles on it. I've got time... just got to bide my time.

Batteries are expensive.

[pecunia]

Am not sure if anyone noted this, but some models are only available in parts West of the Mississippi River.  I've been shopping for a hybrid and some like the Subaru Crosstrek are not to be had.  The same is true of the plug-in versions of some of these vehicles.  Maybe, it's a legal thing as California has mandates.

ALso - How easy will it be to get these fixed?  What repairs can the customer do themselves? If they are not big sellers will parts be readily available a few years down the road?  Another factor to consider is safety.  You're riding around with a 200+ volt battery.  There will be special considerations if you have an accident with one of these.

[FINate]

This is not the truck you're looking for.

Certainly isn't the truck I'm looking for, was disappointed with the Cybertruck unveil. I may be fine with unibody construction (depends on a few details), but don't want an "exoskeleton" where the exterior body panels are structural and of a material that's difficult to repair. Want a bed, not a vault with super high bedrails -- I'm tall but not that tall! -- and don't want to mod the vault just to fit a camper shell or lumber rack or any number of aftermarket options. And I don't want a super aggressive looking truck with sharp angles and bullet proof body and armored glass. I still prefer the old body style over the more aggressive looking new body style of the Big Three, but willing to live with it on my F150 because it's very well made and gets decent MPG (~20 highway) for a  proper 4WD with skid plates and an e-locker. All the other Cybertruck features (air compressor, power outlets, etc.) are bells and whistles, they need to get the fundamentals right first. I do think Cybertruck will sell, but agree that it's a niche market.

My 8 year old F150 runs great and only has 50k miles (I'm FIRE, no commute, only use it for outdoor adventures) so I will bide my time. Here's hoping that Tesla can sell enough Cybertrucks to parlay their success into a "normal" pickup.

[Linea_Norway]

This is not the truck you're looking for.

Certainly isn't the truck I'm looking for, was disappointed with the Cybertruck unveil. I may be fine with unibody construction (depends on a few details), but don't want an "exoskeleton" where the exterior body panels are structural and of a material that's difficult to repair. Want a bed, not a vault with super high bedrails -- I'm tall but not that tall! -- and don't want to mod the vault just to fit a camper shell or lumber rack or any number of aftermarket options. And I don't want a super aggressive looking truck with sharp angles and bullet proof body and armored glass. I still prefer the old body style over the more aggressive looking new body style of the Big Three, but willing to live with it on my F150 because it's very well made and gets decent MPG (~20 highway) for a  proper 4WD with skid plates and an e-locker. All the other Cybertruck features (air compressor, power outlets, etc.) are bells and whistles, they need to get the fundamentals right first. I do think Cybertruck will sell, but agree that it's a niche market.

My 8 year old F150 runs great and only has 50k miles (I'm FIRE, no commute, only use it for outdoor adventures) so I will bide my time. Here's hoping that Tesla can sell enough Cybertrucks to parlay their success into a "normal" pickup.

I can image that Tesla also will introduce a more normal looking car with truck-like features. Our maybe the competitors will.

[JLee]

This is not the truck you're looking for.

Certainly isn't the truck I'm looking for, was disappointed with the Cybertruck unveil. I may be fine with unibody construction (depends on a few details), but don't want an "exoskeleton" where the exterior body panels are structural and of a material that's difficult to repair. Want a bed, not a vault with super high bedrails -- I'm tall but not that tall! -- and don't want to mod the vault just to fit a camper shell or lumber rack or any number of aftermarket options. And I don't want a super aggressive looking truck with sharp angles and bullet proof body and armored glass. I still prefer the old body style over the more aggressive looking new body style of the Big Three, but willing to live with it on my F150 because it's very well made and gets decent MPG (~20 highway) for a  proper 4WD with skid plates and an e-locker. All the other Cybertruck features (air compressor, power outlets, etc.) are bells and whistles, they need to get the fundamentals right first. I do think Cybertruck will sell, but agree that it's a niche market.

My 8 year old F150 runs great and only has 50k miles (I'm FIRE, no commute, only use it for outdoor adventures) so I will bide my time. Here's hoping that Tesla can sell enough Cybertrucks to parlay their success into a "normal" pickup.

I can image that Tesla also will introduce a more normal looking car with truck-like features. Our maybe the competitors will.

https://rivian.com/r1t/

[neo von retorch]

https://rivian.com/r1t/

I'm glad others are working on this, and the high initial price is to be expected. Will be interesting to see how closely Tesla hits their announced prices initially and over time, and how competition and advancements temper this prices. As a Mustachian, I still can't see spending over $25k on a truck... I simply can't extract enough value out of it compared to a $40 rental here and there. But I know the market is full of people with money and ideas...

[BudgetSlasher]

This is not the truck you're looking for.

Certainly isn't the truck I'm looking for, was disappointed with the Cybertruck unveil. I may be fine with unibody construction (depends on a few details), but don't want an "exoskeleton" where the exterior body panels are structural and of a material that's difficult to repair. Want a bed, not a vault with super high bedrails -- I'm tall but not that tall! -- and don't want to mod the vault just to fit a camper shell or lumber rack or any number of aftermarket options. And I don't want a super aggressive looking truck with sharp angles and bullet proof body and armored glass. I still prefer the old body style over the more aggressive looking new body style of the Big Three, but willing to live with it on my F150 because it's very well made and gets decent MPG (~20 highway) for a  proper 4WD with skid plates and an e-locker. All the other Cybertruck features (air compressor, power outlets, etc.) are bells and whistles, they need to get the fundamentals right first. I do think Cybertruck will sell, but agree that it's a niche market.

My 8 year old F150 runs great and only has 50k miles (I'm FIRE, no commute, only use it for outdoor adventures) so I will bide my time. Here's hoping that Tesla can sell enough Cybertrucks to parlay their success into a "normal" pickup.

I can image that Tesla also will introduce a more normal looking car with truck-like features. Our maybe the competitors will.

Likely the competitors, at least at first. Rivian is planning deliveries by 2020 and Tesla's 2021 time frame is the same as GM's announced schedule and Ford's rumored timeline.

Perhaps something different like the cyber truck will turn out to be smart decision given that a fancy/luxury electric truck and also 2 electric trucks from established truck manufacturers will beat or match it to market.

[Just Joe]

https://rivian.com/r1t/

I'm glad others are working on this, and the high initial price is to be expected. Will be interesting to see how closely Tesla hits their announced prices initially and over time, and how competition and advancements temper this prices. As a Mustachian, I still can't see spending over $25k on a truck... I simply can't extract enough value out of it compared to a $40 rental here and there. But I know the market is full of people with money and ideas...

I don't want to spend starter house money (around here) on a vehicle that I then beat up with outdoor adventures, hardware store runs, and trips to the dump.

[JLee]

https://rivian.com/r1t/

I'm glad others are working on this, and the high initial price is to be expected. Will be interesting to see how closely Tesla hits their announced prices initially and over time, and how competition and advancements temper this prices. As a Mustachian, I still can't see spending over $25k on a truck... I simply can't extract enough value out of it compared to a $40 rental here and there. But I know the market is full of people with money and ideas...

I don't want to spend starter house money (around here) on a vehicle that I then beat up with outdoor adventures, hardware store runs, and trips to the dump.

Then it's not for you!  That's less than 5 years of property tax around here.

[FINate]

https://rivian.com/r1t/

I'm glad others are working on this, and the high initial price is to be expected. Will be interesting to see how closely Tesla hits their announced prices initially and over time, and how competition and advancements temper this prices. As a Mustachian, I still can't see spending over $25k on a truck... I simply can't extract enough value out of it compared to a $40 rental here and there. But I know the market is full of people with money and ideas...

I don't want to spend starter house money (around here) on a vehicle that I then beat up with outdoor adventures, hardware store runs, and trips to the dump.

Then it's not for you!  That's less than 5 years of property tax around here.

Less than 2.5 years where I live. And now I'm sad :(