Author Topic: coronavirus  (Read 27138 times)

Travis

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #200 on: March 26, 2020, 04:09:12 AM »
So one of my employees is now quarantined because his wife tested positive. No symptoms. She got it from someone at her work who got it from someone visiting from CA.

edit: oh, I'll add the testing went really fast--less than 3 hours.

Someone in my office is at home pending test results because he's had flu symptoms for a couple days. If the virus actually makes it into my building we're all screwed.  On a typical day I have face to face contact with about 20 people in five separate offices on opposite sides of the building. I barely interact with this particular soldier, but it's two to three degrees of separation to the people I do interact with.

You'll never guess what happened at work today...



It wasn't me, but by the end of the week I may be the only one left.* The infectious individual did two things that may make this a big one.  He ate at the food court across the street from the headquarters where damn near everybody passes through on a typical lunch period**, and he works in one of the IT help desks.  People come to see him frequently. The rest of his cubicle mates go out and sit at other people's desks. My team has physical interactions with him weekly. I'm at 6 out of 13 quarantined from my team and the notification is only 4 hours old.  Nobody has symptoms and nobody has been tested yet, but it's about to be an interesting week.

* If a member of my team caught it from this guy and passed it on to me, then my earlier post still stands. I was in a conference room with 20 other people on Monday and had conversations with at least 10 others since then.

** It doesn't sound like he showed symptoms until the day after this lunch routine.

Based on where this guy traveled around the base for lunch, coffee, and his office job, over 100 people were ordered to 3-14 day quarantines. I got two of my soldiers back this evening and might get another one on Monday. The rest are stuck at the house for two weeks.  I've been directed to split my team in half and start working day on/day off to minimize the number of people in the building.  The office he works in was devastated. 30/40 in two week quarantine.

Luke Warm

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #201 on: March 26, 2020, 01:53:00 PM »
so flattening the curve i understand. is it possible to tell how far we need to flatten it? i've seen the curve skyrocketing upwards but is it possible to overlay that curve onto the flattened curve?

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #202 on: March 26, 2020, 02:09:53 PM »

Travis

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #203 on: March 26, 2020, 06:24:59 PM »
So one of my employees is now quarantined because his wife tested positive. No symptoms. She got it from someone at her work who got it from someone visiting from CA.

edit: oh, I'll add the testing went really fast--less than 3 hours.

Someone in my office is at home pending test results because he's had flu symptoms for a couple days. If the virus actually makes it into my building we're all screwed.  On a typical day I have face to face contact with about 20 people in five separate offices on opposite sides of the building. I barely interact with this particular soldier, but it's two to three degrees of separation to the people I do interact with.

You'll never guess what happened at work today...



It wasn't me, but by the end of the week I may be the only one left.* The infectious individual did two things that may make this a big one.  He ate at the food court across the street from the headquarters where damn near everybody passes through on a typical lunch period**, and he works in one of the IT help desks.  People come to see him frequently. The rest of his cubicle mates go out and sit at other people's desks. My team has physical interactions with him weekly. I'm at 6 out of 13 quarantined from my team and the notification is only 4 hours old.  Nobody has symptoms and nobody has been tested yet, but it's about to be an interesting week.

* If a member of my team caught it from this guy and passed it on to me, then my earlier post still stands. I was in a conference room with 20 other people on Monday and had conversations with at least 10 others since then.

** It doesn't sound like he showed symptoms until the day after this lunch routine.

Based on where this guy traveled around the base for lunch, coffee, and his office job, over 100 people were ordered to 3-14 day quarantines. I got two of my soldiers back this evening and might get another one on Monday. The rest are stuck at the house for two weeks.  I've been directed to split my team in half and start working day on/day off to minimize the number of people in the building.  The office he works in was devastated. 30/40 in two week quarantine.

A soldier who works with the original infected contractor somehow didn't get quarantined. The soldier received a positive test last night and now that entire barracks, along with anybody who may have traveled with them on three buses, a cafeteria, and a gym are quarantined for 72 hours.

GuitarStv

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #204 on: March 26, 2020, 06:31:38 PM »
I don't get it.  How does a 72 hour quarantine help anything?

Travis

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #205 on: March 26, 2020, 08:04:02 PM »
I don't get it.  How does a 72 hour quarantine help anything?

Not sure. They seem to be using it for the folks who had tertiary contact with the infected (happened to pass by them). The soldier who got missed in the sweep on Tuesday and came up positive last night was most likely infected on Friday.  If you had physical contact with the infected you're getting 14 days quarantine, and if you show the slightest symptoms you're getting tested and getting 14 days.  We've identified 3 or 4 more as of an hour ago who are now infected from this ongoing chain.  We just had a meeting in what is left of my department arguing how they need to just shut us all down for a week and see who gets it from this particular incident.

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #206 on: March 26, 2020, 08:19:32 PM »
Do you remember all those useless N95 masks I had on page one of this thread? I just gave them all away to a friend of a friend who is an EMT. His company is 100% out of masks, zero left.

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #207 on: March 27, 2020, 05:19:23 AM »
I don't get it.  How does a 72 hour quarantine help anything?
Wait to find out if the have symptoms?
An unreliable, but easy way.

Quote
so flattening the curve i understand. is it possible to tell how far we need to flatten it? i've seen the curve skyrocketing upwards but is it possible to overlay that curve onto the flattened curve?
The easy part of the math is this:
maximum allowed curve size: new infected * rate of people needing emergency care * rate of emergency beds getting free

Let's say you have 7000 beds (respirators or whatever the critical equipment is).

A patient stays 7 days on average. Means you get 1000 free beds per day.

5% of infected need a hospitel bed. That leaves you with a care capacity of 1000 / 5% = 20'000 newly infected per day.


The other half of the equation:

If nothing is done, infections double approximately every 3 days. So if you have 1000 newly infected today, it will be 2000 in 3 days. 4000 in 6 days, 8000 in 9 days, 16000 in 12 days and in two weeks you are screwed.

The shockingly simple math of early retirement, but in this case the unwanted eternal one. (sorry, a bit of gallows humor here)

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #208 on: March 27, 2020, 06:45:26 AM »

GuitarStv

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #209 on: March 27, 2020, 07:41:06 AM »
I don't get it.  How does a 72 hour quarantine help anything?
Wait to find out if the have symptoms?
An unreliable, but easy way.

Yeah, but a fair number of people are asymptomatic.  You need a 14 day period and test to be sure.


A 72 hour quarantine smacks of the same kind of foolishness as making everyone take off their shoes before boarding an airline.  It's pageantry masquerading as security.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #210 on: March 27, 2020, 04:53:20 PM »
found this:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

That's horrifying. And it's not even the end of the pandemic.

kenmoremmm

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #211 on: March 27, 2020, 05:28:25 PM »
found this:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

That's horrifying. And it's not even the end of the pandemic.
you're not kidding. i wonder if the covid19 link is backwards-revising, or if their numbers are scarily accurate.
compare to this: https://ncov2019.live/
prediction is 1542 and actual is 1591

Travis

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #212 on: March 27, 2020, 05:37:15 PM »
I don't get it.  How does a 72 hour quarantine help anything?
Wait to find out if the have symptoms?
An unreliable, but easy way.

Yeah, but a fair number of people are asymptomatic.  You need a 14 day period and test to be sure.


A 72 hour quarantine smacks of the same kind of foolishness as making everyone take off their shoes before boarding an airline.  It's pageantry masquerading as security.

The guy who got sick on Friday last week? Infected at least two others in his office who didn't get positive test results until Thursday night/Friday morning. I haven't seen the full report, but I assume because that's when they started to feel sick and went in to be tested.  The former was not given a quarantine order at all, and the latter received the 72 hour order on Tuesday when we learned about the first guy.

Since the 2nd patient lives in the barracks, that entire building is now quarantined for at least 72 hours (200 soldiers), but the rumor is they've been extended to 14 days.  That soldier is roommates with a soldier in my department.  Since she didn't get scooped up in the 72-hour order on Tuesday she went about her business for 4 days.  I'm now down to 3/13 including me assuming I get back one of my earlier 72-hour soldiers on Monday.  Even for the departments that weren't decimated yesterday, we've all been ordered to bare minimum manning for at least a couple weeks.

The timeline of "I feel sick, I should get tested, here are my results" backdated to when the infection occurred is looking like 7 days around here.  Even for those identified as being possibly exposed, there is a gap of a couple days.

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #213 on: March 29, 2020, 07:43:23 PM »
The Koreans seem to be doing a pretty good job of testing and contact tracing to minimize spread.  Are they aware of the spread at your installation?  Are there Koreans, civilian or military at the installation?  Is there any cooperative effort to contain this? 

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #214 on: March 29, 2020, 09:17:07 PM »
The local news is surreal. All interview clips are via phone or video calls. Besides the deaths of a state-level representative and  university senior this morning, the anchors talked about FEMA turning the big downtown convention center into a field hospital, which began right after the auto show was cancelled for the first time since WWII. They've already also flagged other sites for additional field hospitals.

Travis

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #215 on: March 29, 2020, 09:54:21 PM »
The Koreans seem to be doing a pretty good job of testing and contact tracing to minimize spread.  Are they aware of the spread at your installation?  Are there Koreans, civilian or military at the installation?  Is there any cooperative effort to contain this?

We have a large population of Korean nationals and Korean military who work on the base. We've been tied in very closely with the measures their government has taken and vice versa since our decisions have health and economic consequences on them as well.  Compared to the grand scheme of things, our "spike" this last week was an aberration.  Since this became a thing at the end of January, the infected US military population (including family members and US/Korean contractors) who have access to our bases has been 12 people out of a population of at least 30,000 over the course of three months.  Conversely, the military population back in the US is seeing that number weekly now.  We're privileged to have a work place where we can control access, but a large number of us live off base. All the contractors and Koreans do as well.  It sounds like the contractor who got sick 8 days ago was off base doing something prohibited (sit down restaurant, social gathering). He brought it on base long enough to get two more sick and put hundreds at risk.  Previously, the senior commanders here had little recourse for family members and contractors who did not follow military policies in these matters. Now with the declaration of a Public Health Emergency, the commanding general has some legal tools to hold them accountable (which really just means he can fire them or send them back to the US).

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #216 on: March 30, 2020, 07:31:20 AM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/abbott-launches-5-minute-covid-19-test-for-use-almost-anywhere

This could be a game changer... and I hope that if it`s correct, that they will license the product/manufacturing process to every company that wants to make some.

Any comments from those more knowledgeable? This seems like exactly what is needed.

jeninco

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #217 on: March 30, 2020, 09:31:48 AM »
I don't get it.  How does a 72 hour quarantine help anything?
Wait to find out if the have symptoms?
An unreliable, but easy way.

Yeah, but a fair number of people are asymptomatic.  You need a 14 day period and test to be sure.


A 72 hour quarantine smacks of the same kind of foolishness as making everyone take off their shoes before boarding an airline.  It's pageantry masquerading as security.

The guy who got sick on Friday last week? Infected at least two others in his office who didn't get positive test results until Thursday night/Friday morning. I haven't seen the full report, but I assume because that's when they started to feel sick and went in to be tested.  The former was not given a quarantine order at all, and the latter received the 72 hour order on Tuesday when we learned about the first guy.

Since the 2nd patient lives in the barracks, that entire building is now quarantined for at least 72 hours (200 soldiers), but the rumor is they've been extended to 14 days.  That soldier is roommates with a soldier in my department.  Since she didn't get scooped up in the 72-hour order on Tuesday she went about her business for 4 days.  I'm now down to 3/13 including me assuming I get back one of my earlier 72-hour soldiers on Monday.  Even for the departments that weren't decimated yesterday, we've all been ordered to bare minimum manning for at least a couple weeks.

The timeline of "I feel sick, I should get tested, here are my results" backdated to when the infection occurred is looking like 7 days around here.  Even for those identified as being possibly exposed, there is a gap of a couple days.

Totally random observation: "Decimate" originally meant lose 1 in 10. Thus the "Deci" in the word. (I know, now it means "kill, destroy, or remove a large percentage of")

/Lexography geeking

Travis, I'm sorry, and I hope you stay healthy (and that your employees/soldiers mostly do, too).

GuitarStv

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #218 on: March 30, 2020, 10:09:12 AM »
I don't get it.  How does a 72 hour quarantine help anything?
Wait to find out if the have symptoms?
An unreliable, but easy way.

Yeah, but a fair number of people are asymptomatic.  You need a 14 day period and test to be sure.


A 72 hour quarantine smacks of the same kind of foolishness as making everyone take off their shoes before boarding an airline.  It's pageantry masquerading as security.

The guy who got sick on Friday last week? Infected at least two others in his office who didn't get positive test results until Thursday night/Friday morning. I haven't seen the full report, but I assume because that's when they started to feel sick and went in to be tested.  The former was not given a quarantine order at all, and the latter received the 72 hour order on Tuesday when we learned about the first guy.

Since the 2nd patient lives in the barracks, that entire building is now quarantined for at least 72 hours (200 soldiers), but the rumor is they've been extended to 14 days.  That soldier is roommates with a soldier in my department.  Since she didn't get scooped up in the 72-hour order on Tuesday she went about her business for 4 days.  I'm now down to 3/13 including me assuming I get back one of my earlier 72-hour soldiers on Monday.  Even for the departments that weren't decimated yesterday, we've all been ordered to bare minimum manning for at least a couple weeks.

The timeline of "I feel sick, I should get tested, here are my results" backdated to when the infection occurred is looking like 7 days around here.  Even for those identified as being possibly exposed, there is a gap of a couple days.

Totally random observation: "Decimate" originally meant lose 1 in 10. Thus the "Deci" in the word. (I know, now it means "kill, destroy, or remove a large percentage of")

/Lexography geeking

Travis, I'm sorry, and I hope you stay healthy (and that your employees/soldiers mostly do, too).

Extra fun fact - decimate didn't really mean 'lose 1 in 10'.  It was a punishment handed out to a Roman military unit for screwing up in a big way (cowardice/desertion/etc) . . . where one in every ten soldiers was randomly chosen by lot to be executed by his fellow soldiers.

:P

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #219 on: March 30, 2020, 10:26:55 AM »
As a totally random factoid, decimate as in kill a certain percentage, was used in WWII by the German army/Nazis. My Dad told me where he lived in Greece all the able bodied men were rounded up in prison.  If a Nazi soldier was killed by anyone in town, they would take 10 men out of prison and execute them in public to make an example. (They would also firebomb an entire small village, if a guerrilla soldier who killed a Nazi was traced to that village).

I think because of the long delay between catching the virus and showing symptoms (and apparently a lot of kids don't show symptoms) this virus is highly contagious. I know by the end of April things are not going to look good. What worries me, is my county's stay at home order is until April 30. I don't see anything dramatically changing that that stay at home order won't be extended. Hopefully i'm wrong.

PDXTabs

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #220 on: March 30, 2020, 10:34:02 AM »
Extra fun fact - decimate didn't really mean 'lose 1 in 10'.  It was a punishment handed out to a Roman military unit for screwing up in a big way (cowardice/desertion/etc) . . . where one in every ten soldiers was randomly chosen by lot to be executed by his fellow soldiers.

:P

Yes, but it also means that bible passages using decimate would almost certainly be using this 1:10 meaning.

Travis

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #221 on: March 30, 2020, 04:23:31 PM »
I don't get it.  How does a 72 hour quarantine help anything?
Wait to find out if the have symptoms?
An unreliable, but easy way.

Yeah, but a fair number of people are asymptomatic.  You need a 14 day period and test to be sure.


A 72 hour quarantine smacks of the same kind of foolishness as making everyone take off their shoes before boarding an airline.  It's pageantry masquerading as security.

The guy who got sick on Friday last week? Infected at least two others in his office who didn't get positive test results until Thursday night/Friday morning. I haven't seen the full report, but I assume because that's when they started to feel sick and went in to be tested.  The former was not given a quarantine order at all, and the latter received the 72 hour order on Tuesday when we learned about the first guy.

Since the 2nd patient lives in the barracks, that entire building is now quarantined for at least 72 hours (200 soldiers), but the rumor is they've been extended to 14 days.  That soldier is roommates with a soldier in my department.  Since she didn't get scooped up in the 72-hour order on Tuesday she went about her business for 4 days.  I'm now down to 3/13 including me assuming I get back one of my earlier 72-hour soldiers on Monday.  Even for the departments that weren't decimated yesterday, we've all been ordered to bare minimum manning for at least a couple weeks.

The timeline of "I feel sick, I should get tested, here are my results" backdated to when the infection occurred is looking like 7 days around here.  Even for those identified as being possibly exposed, there is a gap of a couple days.

Totally random observation: "Decimate" originally meant lose 1 in 10. Thus the "Deci" in the word. (I know, now it means "kill, destroy, or remove a large percentage of")

/Lexography geeking

Travis, I'm sorry, and I hope you stay healthy (and that your employees/soldiers mostly do, too).

Thank you Pedantic Police, lol. I used that term for its mathematical value on purpose. The barracks being quarantined reduced some departments by 10%, while in my case it reduced me to 10%.  They let everyone out last night, but we got another case from an off-base contractor unrelated to the last few cases.  I have no idea where he works, but it appears to be a different part of the base.  Even with their brief isolation lifted, my team isn't being allowed back into the building for another week.

tthree

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #222 on: March 30, 2020, 05:36:14 PM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/abbott-launches-5-minute-covid-19-test-for-use-almost-anywhere

This could be a game changer... and I hope that if it`s correct, that they will license the product/manufacturing process to every company that wants to make some.

Any comments from those more knowledgeable? This seems like exactly what is needed.
I'll take the bait.

There are other similar technologies on the market already. In my province we use the Gene Xpert rapid test platform, and they also have a COVID test: https://www.healthpolicy-watch.org/new-covid-19-rapid-test-approved-for-genexpert-tb-platform-could-pave-way-for-more-testing-in-low-middle-income-countries/

The issue with these rapid tests is that they perform only one test at a time.  So even if it is 5 minutes (and it's always longer than claimed), the throughput is only 288 samples/day.

The lab I work in has this instrument with a COVID test available: https://www.industryweek.com/operations/safety/article/21126261/fda-gives-roches-covid19-test-emergency-clearance. It has a much higher throughput and could be a game changer.

Currently, the issue with ALL of these manufactured assays is the supply and demand.  Right now there is a lot of demand....and no supply.

So in the meantime we will continue to use our Lab Developed Assays.

Another Reader

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #223 on: March 30, 2020, 05:59:47 PM »
I don't get it.  How does a 72 hour quarantine help anything?
Wait to find out if the have symptoms?
An unreliable, but easy way.

Yeah, but a fair number of people are asymptomatic.  You need a 14 day period and test to be sure.


A 72 hour quarantine smacks of the same kind of foolishness as making everyone take off their shoes before boarding an airline.  It's pageantry masquerading as security.

The guy who got sick on Friday last week? Infected at least two others in his office who didn't get positive test results until Thursday night/Friday morning. I haven't seen the full report, but I assume because that's when they started to feel sick and went in to be tested.  The former was not given a quarantine order at all, and the latter received the 72 hour order on Tuesday when we learned about the first guy.

Since the 2nd patient lives in the barracks, that entire building is now quarantined for at least 72 hours (200 soldiers), but the rumor is they've been extended to 14 days.  That soldier is roommates with a soldier in my department.  Since she didn't get scooped up in the 72-hour order on Tuesday she went about her business for 4 days.  I'm now down to 3/13 including me assuming I get back one of my earlier 72-hour soldiers on Monday.  Even for the departments that weren't decimated yesterday, we've all been ordered to bare minimum manning for at least a couple weeks.

The timeline of "I feel sick, I should get tested, here are my results" backdated to when the infection occurred is looking like 7 days around here.  Even for those identified as being possibly exposed, there is a gap of a couple days.

Totally random observation: "Decimate" originally meant lose 1 in 10. Thus the "Deci" in the word. (I know, now it means "kill, destroy, or remove a large percentage of")

/Lexography geeking

Travis, I'm sorry, and I hope you stay healthy (and that your employees/soldiers mostly do, too).

Thank you Pedantic Police, lol. I used that term for its mathematical value on purpose. The barracks being quarantined reduced some departments by 10%, while in my case it reduced me to 10%.  They let everyone out last night, but we got another case from an off-base contractor unrelated to the last few cases.  I have no idea where he works, but it appears to be a different part of the base.  Even with their brief isolation lifted, my team isn't being allowed back into the building for another week.

On top of all your other problems, it looks like your Korean employees and contractors are about to get furloughed over a funding dispute.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-30/u-s-base-workers-set-for-furlough-in-blow-to-korea-alliance

I'll bet you regret signing up for two years over there about now...

Travis

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #224 on: March 30, 2020, 06:05:54 PM »
I don't get it.  How does a 72 hour quarantine help anything?
Wait to find out if the have symptoms?
An unreliable, but easy way.

Yeah, but a fair number of people are asymptomatic.  You need a 14 day period and test to be sure.


A 72 hour quarantine smacks of the same kind of foolishness as making everyone take off their shoes before boarding an airline.  It's pageantry masquerading as security.

The guy who got sick on Friday last week? Infected at least two others in his office who didn't get positive test results until Thursday night/Friday morning. I haven't seen the full report, but I assume because that's when they started to feel sick and went in to be tested.  The former was not given a quarantine order at all, and the latter received the 72 hour order on Tuesday when we learned about the first guy.

Since the 2nd patient lives in the barracks, that entire building is now quarantined for at least 72 hours (200 soldiers), but the rumor is they've been extended to 14 days.  That soldier is roommates with a soldier in my department.  Since she didn't get scooped up in the 72-hour order on Tuesday she went about her business for 4 days.  I'm now down to 3/13 including me assuming I get back one of my earlier 72-hour soldiers on Monday.  Even for the departments that weren't decimated yesterday, we've all been ordered to bare minimum manning for at least a couple weeks.

The timeline of "I feel sick, I should get tested, here are my results" backdated to when the infection occurred is looking like 7 days around here.  Even for those identified as being possibly exposed, there is a gap of a couple days.

Totally random observation: "Decimate" originally meant lose 1 in 10. Thus the "Deci" in the word. (I know, now it means "kill, destroy, or remove a large percentage of")

/Lexography geeking

Travis, I'm sorry, and I hope you stay healthy (and that your employees/soldiers mostly do, too).

Thank you Pedantic Police, lol. I used that term for its mathematical value on purpose. The barracks being quarantined reduced some departments by 10%, while in my case it reduced me to 10%.  They let everyone out last night, but we got another case from an off-base contractor unrelated to the last few cases.  I have no idea where he works, but it appears to be a different part of the base.  Even with their brief isolation lifted, my team isn't being allowed back into the building for another week.

On top of all your other problems, it looks like your Korean employees and contractors are about to get furloughed over a funding dispute.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-30/u-s-base-workers-set-for-furlough-in-blow-to-korea-alliance

I'll bet you regret signing up for two years over there about now...

We've been tracking that coming for a couple months now. It's going to be interesting starting tomorrow.

Not regretting the move at all. I feel safer here than at a US base right now.

Travis

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #225 on: May 02, 2020, 09:45:39 PM »
So South Korea has been at roughly 10 or fewer new infections/day for the last 2 weeks. For over a week all of them have been people who got off a plane from outside the country and the Korean government put them in quarantine, so #killthevirus may actually be a thing here shortly.  I expect we'll remain at our current health condition posture for the rest of May. We're not done with this, but it's very encouraging.

GuitarStv

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #226 on: May 03, 2020, 08:21:16 AM »
So South Korea has been at roughly 10 or fewer new infections/day for the last 2 weeks. For over a week all of them have been people who got off a plane from outside the country and the Korean government put them in quarantine, so #killthevirus may actually be a thing here shortly.  I expect we'll remain at our current health condition posture for the rest of May. We're not done with this, but it's very encouraging.

I guess over time we'll see if the Korean/New Zealand/Australian approach of locking down until there is virtually no spread is better than the US approach of half assing a lockdown and then opening places while cases are still rising.  I have my suspicions about which was the right path to follow.  :P

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #227 on: May 03, 2020, 08:32:21 AM »
So South Korea has been at roughly 10 or fewer new infections/day for the last 2 weeks. For over a week all of them have been people who got off a plane from outside the country and the Korean government put them in quarantine, so #killthevirus may actually be a thing here shortly.  I expect we'll remain at our current health condition posture for the rest of May. We're not done with this, but it's very encouraging.

I guess over time we'll see if the Korean/New Zealand/Australian approach of locking down until there is virtually no spread is better than the US approach of half assing a lockdown and then opening places while cases are still rising.  I have my suspicions about which was the right path to follow.  :P

And we have our own experiment running here, as different provinces have different infection levels, different containment levels and different levels of opening up.

As an Ontarian, I love this Beaverton article, since no-one expected Ford to behave as responsibly as he has during this mess.

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2020/04/doug-ford-rattles-bars-on-cell-as-imposter-continues-to-competently-manage-covid-19-pandemic/

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #228 on: May 03, 2020, 08:38:00 AM »
Well, looks like Michigan is signing up for another round of shutdowns this summer. Note that cases in West (including Grand Haven) and Northern Michigan are still increasing at rates higher than the state average.

https://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/2020/05/grand-haven-asks-public-to-stay-away-from-beach-after-crowds-ignore-social-distancing.html

GuitarStv

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #229 on: May 03, 2020, 08:42:20 AM »
So South Korea has been at roughly 10 or fewer new infections/day for the last 2 weeks. For over a week all of them have been people who got off a plane from outside the country and the Korean government put them in quarantine, so #killthevirus may actually be a thing here shortly.  I expect we'll remain at our current health condition posture for the rest of May. We're not done with this, but it's very encouraging.

I guess over time we'll see if the Korean/New Zealand/Australian approach of locking down until there is virtually no spread is better than the US approach of half assing a lockdown and then opening places while cases are still rising.  I have my suspicions about which was the right path to follow.  :P

And we have our own experiment running here, as different provinces have different infection levels, different containment levels and different levels of opening up.

As an Ontarian, I love this Beaverton article, since no-one expected Ford to behave as responsibly as he has during this mess.

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2020/04/doug-ford-rattles-bars-on-cell-as-imposter-continues-to-competently-manage-covid-19-pandemic/

Yeah, I've been continuously surprised by Ford's reasonableness.  He hasn't been perfect, but a damn sight better than I thought he would have been.

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #230 on: May 03, 2020, 02:36:36 PM »
It helps that Rob set the bar so low!

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #231 on: May 09, 2020, 06:46:36 PM »
And just like that, one ass hat set the clock back by a month.

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/05/07/business/ap-as-virus-outbreak-asia.html

kenmoremmm

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #232 on: May 10, 2020, 09:59:57 PM »
And just like that, one ass hat set the clock back by a month.

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/05/07/business/ap-as-virus-outbreak-asia.html

this is the entire problem with the lockdown approach. there will always, always be a new case that starts. then what? you lock down again? this is unreasonable unless the true goal is to shatter life and economy. same thing will happen in china. i mean, while the virus rages in the US, europe, africa, india, japan, etc - is china just going to lock down all travel to/from those countries for the next 2 years? good luck with that. hope they don't want any of their shipping containers back.

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #233 on: May 11, 2020, 02:16:21 AM »
And just like that, one ass hat set the clock back by a month.

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/05/07/business/ap-as-virus-outbreak-asia.html

this is the entire problem with the lockdown approach. there will always, always be a new case that starts. then what? you lock down again? this is unreasonable unless the true goal is to shatter life and economy. same thing will happen in china. i mean, while the virus rages in the US, europe, africa, india, japan, etc - is china just going to lock down all travel to/from those countries for the next 2 years? good luck with that. hope they don't want any of their shipping containers back.

With most of the world that seems to be the issue. Here in Korea we went a week where the only people showing up sick were getting off planes from other countries and going straight to quarantine. The week before that new domestic infections were down to 10 per day for the entire country.  I don't know what this one guy's story was, but it seemed like we were close to the virus burning itself out domestically.  I'm not entirely clear on the scale of Korea's "lockdown," but I know for US soldiers we have not been allowed to go to church, sit down in restaurants, do anything in public in groups of 10, and half of us are working from home.  I was shocked that clubs and bars were open in Seoul at all.

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #234 on: May 11, 2020, 07:34:49 AM »
And just like that, one ass hat set the clock back by a month.

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/05/07/business/ap-as-virus-outbreak-asia.html

this is the entire problem with the lockdown approach. there will always, always be a new case that starts. then what? you lock down again? this is unreasonable unless the true goal is to shatter life and economy. same thing will happen in china. i mean, while the virus rages in the US, europe, africa, india, japan, etc - is china just going to lock down all travel to/from those countries for the next 2 years? good luck with that. hope they don't want any of their shipping containers back.

You make a complete lockdown so that the virus has no chance to infect new people.
Then you open up but keep eyes open, too.
Then, if a new infected is found, you "only" lock up his contacts (and not whole cities or conutries).
You can track (and isolate) 10 new infected a lot more easy than 10000. You may even succeed in complete virus killing, as has happened with SARS ten years ago.

Or, of course, you could worry about the next election and go the Trump way and infect everyone.

kenmoremmm

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #235 on: May 11, 2020, 09:49:31 AM »
And just like that, one ass hat set the clock back by a month.

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/05/07/business/ap-as-virus-outbreak-asia.html

this is the entire problem with the lockdown approach. there will always, always be a new case that starts. then what? you lock down again? this is unreasonable unless the true goal is to shatter life and economy. same thing will happen in china. i mean, while the virus rages in the US, europe, africa, india, japan, etc - is china just going to lock down all travel to/from those countries for the next 2 years? good luck with that. hope they don't want any of their shipping containers back.

You make a complete lockdown so that the virus has no chance to infect new people.
Then you open up but keep eyes open, too.
Then, if a new infected is found, you "only" lock up his contacts (and not whole cities or conutries).
You can track (and isolate) 10 new infected a lot more easy than 10000. You may even succeed in complete virus killing, as has happened with SARS ten years ago.

Or, of course, you could worry about the next election and go the Trump way and infect everyone.

sorry. this is not practical in any sense. we don't have 10 people infected. we have multiple millions (assuming you believe that there are 10-20x more actual cases than reported.

it's too late.

the time to do lockdown and contract tracing of this thing was december. after that, it was too late, there needed to be a coordinated, worldwide shutdown of travel and contact tracing at that point. now, you're talking about 40-80M people worldwide that have contracted it. contract trace that. good luck.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!