coronavirus

[Travis]

What's 3.4% of the world's population?

Many people on this forum think that since China, South Korea, and Singapore seem to have things under control that everyone else will be okay. I'm not in this camp.

(7,770,409,772 - 1,386,000,000 - 51,470,000 - 5,612,000) * 0.7 * 0.034 = 150,590,401

That 70% of the world population outside of China, Singapore, and South Korea getting infected with 3.4% dying. That could be wildly off, but I'd be surprised if it is off by 10x. We'll see, I'd love to be wrong.

South Korea is converging to ~0.9%-1% case fatality rate where testing has been most extensive. Of course, outcomes depend on demographics (age, smoking matter a lot), possibly virus strain, and how overwhelmed medical resources are.

Yup, South Korea is basically a best case scenario for low mortality from this virus: affluent society, most of the infected were disproportionately young,* and their healthcare system's capacity for urgent and intensive care wasn't overwhelmed.

*The church where the virus first spread widely in Korea seems to have been mostly people in their 20s and 30s.

The public is also more willing to follow these quarantine measures.  A lot of folks seem a bit paranoid and overzealous when it comes to wearing masks, but it's better than thumbing their nose at government health directives.  A couple nights ago someone pointed out that if our homes are supposed to be a safe place to be, what about the moving company crews that pack and unpack our household goods shipments? The garrison commander pointed out that the Korean government now requires those crews to wear gloves and masks when they're working.  The management team in my apartment complex has someone come out and spray down the elevator and lobby once a week.  Two weeks after the Daegu church outbreak my base up here near Seoul instituted a lock down where everybody coming onto the base gets a temperature check and gets asked where they've been in the last month. If they show symptoms they get further screening and instructions.  Out of a population of about 12,000 working on the base and living in the surrounding area we've had one person infected. Daegu is still a petri dish with 60% of the country's infections being there (US military infections you can count on your fingers), but the spread across the country has been very slow.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

The US is about two weeks behind Italy. A friend at WMT just told me they are doing WFH for all corporate employees effective immediately. This morning, I told my employees to not even think about coming to work and to WFH if they get a fever or any other symptoms; the meeting I held preempted a set of meetings on the official HR policy (something I found out since I booked the same conference room in front of HR). After that HR meeting, all employees received an email on how many times the door handles would be scrubbed at corporate HQ each day. My boss said WFH is fine short-term if schools close to handle childcare... Nothing about any actual contingency planning or emphasizing how sick people should not come to work under any circumstances, etc. If there is a confirmed positive case, we are to let HR and our manager know immediately (there is a presumptive local case but probably no confirmed cases if no testing readily available!). By the time there is one confirmed case, there will probably be 5 active cases and 25 incubating cases. Estimating that current policy is killing 0.2-0.5 statistical people. If I was smarter, I would not work here.

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

Everyone in the know is suggesting that this will become the next endemic disease we all deal with, and that it will have global spread within 12 months. If everyone is infected, and there's a lower than reported death rate... we're still talking about close to a hundred million people in the next 12 months. If countries slow the saturation and "flatten the curve", it's just changing the time factor (and the lessening the social chaos factor). We're still talking about a hell of a lot of people dying. Sure, a lot of them had advanced age and underlying issues maybe, but that's a lot of deaths. I'm pretty sure it's unavoidable. We are very, very lucky as a species that is not a truly awful virus. Because we're not capable of dealing with that at ALL. I think people will look back on this in a hundred years and call is a massively lucky escape for human kind - and a frickin wakeup call.

[RWTL]

I think people will look back on this in a hundred years and call is a massively lucky escape for human kind - and a frickin wakeup call.

I hope this is true.  In reality - How many people before the last few months knew anything about the flu virus of 1918?  We tend to have tragic events, then move on.   

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

I think people will look back on this in a hundred years and call is a massively lucky escape for human kind - and a frickin wakeup call.

I hope this is true.  In reality - How many people before the last few months knew anything about the flu virus of 1918?  We tend to have tragic events, then move on.

Well, now we've seen just how fast a virus could wipe us all out, even with our modern technology etc etc. Next time, I hope people will act rapidly and decisively. That has worked, in part at least, for the asian countries that had previously dealt with SARS. Politicians need to realise that their chance of re-election has no relevance at all in this kind of situation. Their job is to take change and lead, not worry about losing face. And the same goes for WHO and CDC, who have been utterly weak and pathetic.

[LennStar]

This thing was out of control weeks ago. I think all that can be said now is that everyone is going to get it. If I were in charge I'd be gearing up hospitals on one hand, and gearing up finding a vaccine on the other. The entire planet will have it within 12 months. There needs to be a free vaccine for all people at severe risk NOW or literally hundreds of millions will die in the next year or so. That's the reality. The only point of keeping it out of any country is to buy time to get a vaccine. This IS the zombie apocalypse. We're just incredibly lucky that it's not a worse virus.  Maybe well learn from this before the next really bad thing comes along.

Millions, but not hundreds of millions, luckily it is not that bad a virus. It won't be "Arrival of the Europeans in the New World" style of pandemic.

If you want to help the efforts to find a vaccine, you can donate your computer's calculating power here: https://foldingathome.org/

Here in Germany my company is now basically remote-only (not that hard for programmers), and other companies are doing the same, often crushing their VPN infrastructure.
In many areas schools are already close or have extended holidays. Universities etc. are putting the new semester one month forward into April.

What's 3.4% of the world's population?

It is not that easy.
As already mentioned a lot, the actual death rate is far lower due to high amounts of undetected cases, possible 1/10th of the number you wrote. Let's be a little bit optimistic and say it is 0,5% overall in developed countries (where we have numbers), okay?

The pandemic will come to a "stop" if about 2/3 of people are infected - herd immunity. After that it will be "just" another seasonal flu.

At 7 billion people that means - let's err a bit on more people - 5'000'000'000 infected.
Means 5'000'000'000 * 0,005 = 25'000'000 people.

You may now say that since the health system in poor countries is a lot worse, more people will die.
BUT we know that the virus is far less dangerous to younger people and poorer countries tend to have a way younger age structure. The death rate there may actually be a lot lower than the (assumed real) 0,5% in rich countries.

Or in short: Nobody knows for sure. Personally I think we will have a lot less than 100 million death this year, even if there will be no vaccine.

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

This thing was out of control weeks ago. I think all that can be said now is that everyone is going to get it. If I were in charge I'd be gearing up hospitals on one hand, and gearing up finding a vaccine on the other. The entire planet will have it within 12 months. There needs to be a free vaccine for all people at severe risk NOW or literally hundreds of millions will die in the next year or so. That's the reality. The only point of keeping it out of any country is to buy time to get a vaccine. This IS the zombie apocalypse. We're just incredibly lucky that it's not a worse virus.  Maybe well learn from this before the next really bad thing comes along.

Millions, but not hundreds of millions, luckily it is not that bad a virus. It won't be "Arrival of the Europeans in the New World" style of pandemic.

If you want to help the efforts to find a vaccine, you can donate your computer's calculating power here: https://foldingathome.org/

Here in Germany my company is now basically remote-only (not that hard for programmers), and other companies are doing the same, often crushing their VPN infrastructure.
In many areas schools are already close or have extended holidays. Universities etc. are putting the new semester one month forward into April.

What's 3.4% of the world's population?

It is not that easy.
As already mentioned a lot, the actual death rate is far lower due to high amounts of undetected cases, possible 1/10th of the number you wrote. Let's be a little bit optimistic and say it is 0,5% overall in developed countries (where we have numbers), okay?

The pandemic will come to a "stop" if about 2/3 of people are infected - herd immunity. After that it will be "just" another seasonal flu.

At 7 billion people that means - let's err a bit on more people - 5'000'000'000 infected.
Means 5'000'000'000 * 0,005 = 25'000'000 people.

You may now say that since the health system in poor countries is a lot worse, more people will die.
BUT we know that the virus is far less dangerous to younger people and poorer countries tend to have a way younger age structure. The death rate there may actually be a lot lower than the (assumed real) 0,5% in rich countries.

Or in short: Nobody knows for sure. Personally I think we will have a lot less than 100 million death this year, even if there will be no vaccine.

I hope you're right. Either way, we're all on the frickin train to the capital of Find Out, aren't we? Thanks, world leaders!

[better late]

and for me, it’s starting. Someone from an organization I’m affiliated with died from COVID 19. (Not someone I knew personally though) They passed before their test results were back.

[American GenX]

I read elsewhere where someone made a case that the U.S. was more like Italy than South Korea, so I did a comparison of the fatality rate among CLOSED cases.

Italy 
1266 deaths
1439 recovered
2705 closed cases
46.8% fatality rate

S. Korea
72 deaths
714 recovered
786 closed cases
9.16% fatality rate

Note: again, this is only among closed cases as we don't yet know the outcome of active cases.

[American GenX]

The pandemic will come to a "stop" if about 2/3 of people are infected - herd immunity. After that it will be "just" another seasonal flu.

That's pure speculation.  I've heard multiple experts on the matter state multiple times that they do not know if this will be a seasonal reoccurrence, and they are very clear that this virus is NOT the flu.

[maizefolk]

I read elsewhere where someone made a case that the U.S. was more like Italy than South Korea, so I did a comparison of the fatality rate among CLOSED cases.

Italy 
1266 deaths
1439 recovered
2705 closed cases
46.8% fatality rate

S. Korea
72 deaths
714 recovered
786 closed cases
9.16% fatality rate

Note: again, this is only among closed cases as we don't yet know the outcome of active cases.

And note, as has been discussed over and over again: it takes a lot longer to close a case of this virus from recover than it does to close a case through death, so this is an exceedingly misleading statistic and will be for as long as the number of active cases is a significant proportion of total cases.

In China -- where there are now plenty of closed cases to look at -- the fatality rate for this disease is in the 2-3% range. In Italy it may be 2x that because of how overwhelmed their healthcare system is. As a result cases that could have recovered with heroic medical intervention are dying instead.

Look, a virus that can spread asymptomatically, is now well established in countries across the globe, puts 20% of the people it infects into the hospital, and kills anywhere from 1-6% of the people it infects is plenty enough to be taken extremely seriously.

[scottish]

In Italy they are triaging older people who do not receive treatment due to the shortage of equipment.   Since they are more likely to succumb, this may explain the higher death rate.

[American GenX]

I read elsewhere where someone made a case that the U.S. was more like Italy than South Korea, so I did a comparison of the fatality rate among CLOSED cases.

Italy 
1266 deaths
1439 recovered
2705 closed cases
46.8% fatality rate

S. Korea
72 deaths
714 recovered
786 closed cases
9.16% fatality rate

Note: again, this is only among closed cases as we don't yet know the outcome of active cases.

I made it clear that I was referring only to CLOSED cases, so anyone taking the time to read it should not be misled on that matter.

But just an FYI on where I took the numbers from, this was my reference at the time I posted.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[American GenX]

In Italy they are triaging older people who do not receive treatment due to the shortage of equipment.   Since they are more likely to succumb, this may explain the higher death rate.

That's true.  I read the following article, and some are making a case that it could be worse than that in the U.S. within a few weeks because of  the number of people over 60, who are obese, who smoke/vape, have diabeties, other respiratory problems, and/or high blood pressure

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-hospital-bed/607807/

[sixwings]

In Italy they are triaging older people who do not receive treatment due to the shortage of equipment.   Since they are more likely to succumb, this may explain the higher death rate.

That's true.  I read the following article, and some are making a case that it could be worse than that in the U.S. within a few weeks because of  the number of people over 60, who are obese, who smoke/vape, have diabeties, other respiratory problems, and/or high blood pressure

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-hospital-bed/607807/

Yeah I think the US is going to have real issues pretty soon. It's been spreading pretty quietly for a bit and the infected will probably start getting more symptoms all at the same time.

[maizefolk]

I made it clear that I was referring only to CLOSED cases, so anyone taking the time to read it should not be misled on that matter.

My guess is that some people will indeed be mislead because its not intuitive that people remain active cases much longer when they survive than when they die. But since you agree it's a misleading number, why keep bringing it up?

[American GenX]

I made it clear that I was referring only to CLOSED cases, so anyone taking the time to read it should not be misled on that matter.

My guess is that some people will indeed be mislead because its not intuitive that people remain active cases much longer when they survive than when they die. But since you agree it's a misleading number, why keep bringing it up?

I don't believe it's misleading if you actually read the post that I'm referring to "closed" cases.  I actually think some of the commonly mentioned fatality rates that include "active" cases are more misleading, because we don't really know the outcome of active cases, and I see them brought up far more often.

[American GenX]

In Italy they are triaging older people who do not receive treatment due to the shortage of equipment.   Since they are more likely to succumb, this may explain the higher death rate.

That's true.  I read the following article, and some are making a case that it could be worse than that in the U.S. within a few weeks because of  the number of people over 60, who are obese, who smoke/vape, have diabeties, other respiratory problems, and/or high blood pressure

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-hospital-bed/607807/

Yeah I think the US is going to have real issues pretty soon. It's been spreading pretty quietly for a bit and the infected will probably start getting more symptoms all at the same time.

Right, and judging from the increase we're seeing being inline with other countries like Italy, it's going to happen very quickly, within 2 weeks.  See attached.

[maizefolk]

I actually think some of the commonly mentioned fatality rates that include "active" cases are more misleading, because we don't really know the outcome of active cases, and I see them brought up far more often.

So, to be clear:

You are stating that you genuinely believe your number of 9-46.8% is closer to the true proportion of people who are infected with the coronavirus who will go on to die than the 2-3% (which seems to be the most widely reported number at this point)?

[SisterX]

I actually think some of the commonly mentioned fatality rates that include "active" cases are more misleading, because we don't really know the outcome of active cases, and I see them brought up far more often.

So, to be clear:

You are stating that you genuinely believe your number of 9-46.8% is closer to the true proportion of people who are infected with the coronavirus who will go on to die than the 2-3% (which seems to be the most widely reported number at this point)?

To be clear, do you lack reading comprehension skills or are you being intentionally dense? That is not at all, ever, what American GenX has said. Not even once. I don't even have skin in this game but having you hammer at this by intentionally (I believe) misreading and misrepresenting what this other person is saying is pissing me off.

[Bloop Bloop]

I think the point is that elevating death rates by comparing them only to known recoveries is mathematically unsound because the majority of the 'active' cases are also going to recover; therefore, reducing the denominator of the fraction to only "active" cases produces a vast over-estimation of death rate.

[Bloop Bloop]

I also think it's worth keeping in mind that medical authorities are likely in most countries to overplay risk, not underplay it, since they're aware of people's general inability to follow prudent medical advice, and they'd rather err on the side of caution. Therefore what we are being told is likely to be closer to the worst-case scenario than the best-case, and I also think a lot of these estimates are worse than the median Expected Value. Humans tend to overestimate the magnitude of both positive and negative outcomes, because they let emotion cloud rationality, and because the health system (quite properly, I guess) would rather expend more energy than is required, to ward off the worst case scenario, than treat public health like an economic market.

[maizefolk]

I actually think some of the commonly mentioned fatality rates that include "active" cases are more misleading, because we don't really know the outcome of active cases, and I see them brought up far more often.

So, to be clear:

You are stating that you genuinely believe your number of 9-46.8% is closer to the true proportion of people who are infected with the coronavirus who will go on to die than the 2-3% (which seems to be the most widely reported number at this point)?

To be clear, do you lack reading comprehension skills or are you being intentionally dense? That is not at all, ever, what American GenX has said. Not even once. I don't even have skin in this game but having you hammer at this by intentionally (I believe) misreading and misrepresenting what this other person is saying is pissing me off.

"Most misleading" is certainly a nonspecific phrase.

However, I cannot come up a good way to quantify which number is more misleading than another number other than which number is farther away from the true value. Just because I cannot think of another option doesn't mean one doesn't exist. If you, or someone else, can think of another better way of quantifying which number is more misleading than another, then please let me know.

Yes, you are right that -- if I had to guess -- I'd guess that the original poster does not actually believe that a 46.8% mortality rate a less misleading estimate of the mortality rate of COVID-19 in Italy. Although obviously I cannot know what goes on in someone else's head. But it sure does seem to be what they've written. If there is another meaning that is obvious to everyone else, then all I can say is that I may indeed be dense, but not intentionally so.

[penguintroopers]

Posting to follow (and get in on the conversation).

I keep thinking about how things are so rapidly changing in this. Just last Saturday I sat down early morning like now and started to see how we all were headed straight for a brick wall. I was anxious and nervous at work on Tuesday and Wednesday, but everyone else seemed business as usual. Then on Thursday everyone collectively looked up and panicked. Grocery stores were being emptied with people stocking up, schools were closing across the county, libraries followed behind, churches and synagogues moving to online (or at least encouraging people to not come)...

Just last weekend my family (parents, in-laws, and siblings) were still trying to optimistically plan what excursions we wanted to do on our cruise in June. Now that Canada has closed ports through July I can't help but think its not going to happen.

When I called on Thursday to encourage my MIL to pull grandma from her adult day-care, I was surprised when MIL asked if I thought it was really necessary. I predicted her to just need someone else to say it out loud to feel like she could go ahead and do it. I said yes, your state now has its first confirmed case, and the fatality rate for her age and health conditions mean she's highly at risk. (This is easily the grandparent my husband and I are most concerned for, even before the virus started).

I can't help but feel in the last week I've felt more pessimism about the future than any other point in my life. Its frustrating to feel that life as we know it is likely going to change for a very long time, and no one seems to want to realize and accept that. Everyone at my workplace thinks "there's no way this place will close" but I can tell you, workplace drug testing has a threshold of demand that can drop to make a lot of us not necessary, and that's assuming we don't hit the point that requires us closing based on the spread of this virus. My husband has been protesting my encouragement to WFH for almost a week now (thankfully the office is close to forcing his hand...)

I was folding a t-shirt from my marathon race. I ran the half marathon two years ago, and the marathon last year. Its supposed to happen in November, but a nagging thought passed me by that its unlikely to happen now. My spring half marathon is already postponed to October, but I'm skeptical on that one as well.

The state is closing a bunch of alcohol stores starting Monday, so once they open today hubs and I are going to go stock up.

And crap I used to get from Amazon within a day or two is already taking three, which I don't take as a very good sign.

But, a funny to keep my post from being all doom and gloom; a coworker stated "I used to cough to cover up my farts, now I fart to cover up my coughs!"

[LennStar]

Interesting stat:

Korea testet all people, Italy only the sick. That is how you get different death rates etc. 

[RWTL]

But, a funny to keep my post from being all doom and gloom; a coworker stated "I used to cough to cover up my farts, now I fart to cover up my coughs!"

Now that's funny.

[Sibley]

@LennStar where'd you find that chart? And did you anything also adding in rates of hospitalization, death, etc?

[maizefolk]

LennStar, I suspect you are right that part of this is Korea doing much broader testing and Italy only have the resources to focus on sick people.

But do also keep in mind that the church the virus was originally spreading through in Korea was mostly young people in their 20s and 30s (probably why Korea has that big spike in the 20-29 category), and also that Italy (median age 47) is an older nation as a whole than Korea (median age 40)

Randomness: if you want to make charts and other pictures easier to read on the forum, you can add a "width" tag to the image so it's not wider than some monitors.

Code: [Select]

[img width=600]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETH1TViXgAAO7Q2?format=jpg&name=large[/img]


[LennStar]

@LennStar where'd you find that chart? And did you anything also adding in rates of hospitalization, death, etc?

Someone on Twitter who says he is a doctor. So no guarantee, but it aligns with what I read elsewhere.

[Hirondelle]

@LennStar from what I know it's only partially the issue with the amount of testing. The incredibly high number of people in their 20s getting infected was because they had the church outbreak. This church had followers mostly in their 20s and 30s.

It also partly explains the gap in death rate between Italy and South Korea.

Note; I do expect that Italy has much higher rates of young people with COVID-19 as well, but as long as it's not tested, it's hard to say whether it's a testing only the sick vs everyone issue or an outbreak-in-a-certain-demographic issue.

Basically, much data but little clues so far.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

So one of my employees is now quarantined because his wife tested positive. No symptoms. She got it from someone at her work who got it from someone visiting from CA.

edit: oh, I'll add the testing went really fast--less than 3 hours.

[Travis]

So one of my employees is now quarantined because his wife tested positive. No symptoms. She got it from someone at her work who got it from someone visiting from CA.

edit: oh, I'll add the testing went really fast--less than 3 hours.

Someone in my office is at home pending test results because he's had flu symptoms for a couple days. If the virus actually makes it into my building we're all screwed.  On a typical day I have face to face contact with about 20 people in five separate offices on opposite sides of the building. I barely interact with this particular soldier, but it's two to three degrees of separation to the people I do interact with.

[kenmoremmm]

buckle up:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/19/upshot/coronavirus-jobless-claims-states.html?searchResultPosition=3

[kenmoremmm]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/world/coronavirus-update-cases.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

The Trump administration is asking state labor officials to delay releasing the precise number of unemployment claims they are fielding, an indication of how uneasy policymakers are about further roiling a stock market already plunging in response to the coronavirus outbreak.

In an email sent Wednesday, the Labor Department instructed state officials to only “provide information using generalities to describe claims levels (very high, large increase)” until the department releases the total number of national claims next Thursday.

The email, which was shared with The New York Times, noted that the reports were monitored closely by financial markets and should therefore remain embargoed. “States should not provide numeric values to the public,” wrote Gay Gilbert, the administrator of the department’s Office of Employment Insurance.

[sui generis]

So one of my employees is now quarantined because his wife tested positive. No symptoms. She got it from someone at her work who got it from someone visiting from CA.

edit: oh, I'll add the testing went really fast--less than 3 hours.

Whoa, how did she even get tested? People with actual symptoms who have been traveling haven't been able to get tested. It was sounding like almost no one was getting tests.

[Travis]

So one of my employees is now quarantined because his wife tested positive. No symptoms. She got it from someone at her work who got it from someone visiting from CA.

edit: oh, I'll add the testing went really fast--less than 3 hours.

Someone in my office is at home pending test results because he's had flu symptoms for a couple days. If the virus actually makes it into my building we're all screwed.  On a typical day I have face to face contact with about 20 people in five separate offices on opposite sides of the building. I barely interact with this particular soldier, but it's two to three degrees of separation to the people I do interact with.

Came back negative. He was just sick with something else for a couple days.  There's a big meeting going on right now discussing how we can mitigate the effects of someone in the headquarters catching it.  I really think that discussion should have happened four weeks ago, but I'm curious to see what they come up with.

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

So one of my employees is now quarantined because his wife tested positive. No symptoms. She got it from someone at her work who got it from someone visiting from CA.

edit: oh, I'll add the testing went really fast--less than 3 hours.

Someone in my office is at home pending test results because he's had flu symptoms for a couple days. If the virus actually makes it into my building we're all screwed.  On a typical day I have face to face contact with about 20 people in five separate offices on opposite sides of the building. I barely interact with this particular soldier, but it's two to three degrees of separation to the people I do interact with.

Came back negative. He was just sick with something else for a couple days.  There's a big meeting going on right now discussing how we can mitigate the effects of someone in the headquarters catching it.  I really think that discussion should have happened four weeks ago, but I'm curious to see what they come up with.

Little hint: do not be the guy that gets coronavirus from the meeting on how to handle coronavirus

[LennStar]

So one of my employees is now quarantined because his wife tested positive. No symptoms. She got it from someone at her work who got it from someone visiting from CA.

edit: oh, I'll add the testing went really fast--less than 3 hours.

Someone in my office is at home pending test results because he's had flu symptoms for a couple days. If the virus actually makes it into my building we're all screwed.  On a typical day I have face to face contact with about 20 people in five separate offices on opposite sides of the building. I barely interact with this particular soldier, but it's two to three degrees of separation to the people I do interact with.

Came back negative. He was just sick with something else for a couple days.  There's a big meeting going on right now discussing how we can mitigate the effects of someone in the headquarters catching it.  I really think that discussion should have happened four weeks ago, but I'm curious to see what they come up with.

Little hint: do not be the guy that gets coronavirus from the meeting on how to handle coronavirus

The 2020 version of the comission to find ways to reduce unneccessary comissions.

[Secret Stache]

So one of my employees is now quarantined because his wife tested positive. No symptoms. She got it from someone at her work who got it from someone visiting from CA.

edit: oh, I'll add the testing went really fast--less than 3 hours.

Someone in my office is at home pending test results because he's had flu symptoms for a couple days. If the virus actually makes it into my building we're all screwed.  On a typical day I have face to face contact with about 20 people in five separate offices on opposite sides of the building. I barely interact with this particular soldier, but it's two to three degrees of separation to the people I do interact with.

Came back negative. He was just sick with something else for a couple days.  There's a big meeting going on right now discussing how we can mitigate the effects of someone in the headquarters catching it.  I really think that discussion should have happened four weeks ago, but I'm curious to see what they come up with.

Little hint: do not be the guy that gets coronavirus from the meeting on how to handle coronavirus

The 2020 version of the comission to find ways to reduce unneccessary comissions.

talking to you Biogen....

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article241246261.html

[Travis]

So one of my employees is now quarantined because his wife tested positive. No symptoms. She got it from someone at her work who got it from someone visiting from CA.

edit: oh, I'll add the testing went really fast--less than 3 hours.

Someone in my office is at home pending test results because he's had flu symptoms for a couple days. If the virus actually makes it into my building we're all screwed.  On a typical day I have face to face contact with about 20 people in five separate offices on opposite sides of the building. I barely interact with this particular soldier, but it's two to three degrees of separation to the people I do interact with.

Came back negative. He was just sick with something else for a couple days.  There's a big meeting going on right now discussing how we can mitigate the effects of someone in the headquarters catching it.  I really think that discussion should have happened four weeks ago, but I'm curious to see what they come up with.

Little hint: do not be the guy that gets coronavirus from the meeting on how to handle coronavirus

Thankfully they've moved almost all executive meetings to webcams, but they're working on a solution to a problem we identified a long time ago.  Back of the envelope, I have personal contact with 20 coworkers a day in our building in three different departments.  I have a pretty boring personal life even without the restrictions so I don't think I'm a candidate to go out and catch it, but if anyone gives it to me I'm running that thing up and down the entire building.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

So one of my employees is now quarantined because his wife tested positive. No symptoms. She got it from someone at her work who got it from someone visiting from CA.

edit: oh, I'll add the testing went really fast--less than 3 hours.

Whoa, how did she even get tested? People with actual symptoms who have been traveling haven't been able to get tested. It was sounding like almost no one was getting tests.

She was the 11th(?) case in the state so maybe around here it's not such a logjam compared to other areas. Also I guess the testing red tape has finally been cut--but every article I read about testing contradicts the others so I have no clue at this point.

[sui generis]

I've been getting very interested lately in what the symptoms look like in actual humans.  I've read the articles and seen lots of little videos describing the progression of symptoms, but given how little testing has been done (except for South Korea) it seems like these could be really skewed.  Most things say that most cases will be mild or moderate, but not to mistake "mild" as meaning it won't be absolutely terrible.  But, there are a few people that I've seen describe their symptoms that depart significantly from what's being described out there.  Of course, a couple of people departing significantly isn't inconsistent with the official descriptions of the vast majority of cases, but I still suspect there might be a lot we don't know about the human experience of this disease just based on lack of testing.

One nurse in CO describing her symptoms never had a fever or cough, but had severe fatigue for a day or two and a day of diarrhea/vomiting, and eventually some small amount of being winded.  A person in a lawyer's group I'm in described fatigue and headache, I think also some digestive symptoms, no cough or fever, until like day 5 when she had severe respiratory symptoms (tightness of chest/hard to breathe).  Actor Idris Elba says "I really haven't witnessed any major symptoms," (from here: https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/tv/2020/03/22/coronavirus-oprah-winfrey-talks-idris-elba-new-covid-19-series/2893782001/). 

There's no way I'm gonna get access to get tested.  But I've had the mildest of tickles in my throat/cough for about 5 days now.  I have a real cough like 2-3 times per day and then several other times I need to clear my throat or have a single cough.  I have no other symptoms at all.  But where the hell did I get this cough from?  I've never had just a simple cough with no other symptoms.  Certainly not a cold or flu and I don't have allergies.  It isn't super important, in that I'm self-isolating and doing all the proper cleaning and hygiene recs.  But, it sure would be nice to know and hearing a broader range of actual people's experience with it is interesting and helpful.

[OtherJen]

I've been getting very interested lately in what the symptoms look like in actual humans.  I've read the articles and seen lots of little videos describing the progression of symptoms, but given how little testing has been done (except for South Korea) it seems like these could be really skewed.  Most things say that most cases will be mild or moderate, but not to mistake "mild" as meaning it won't be absolutely terrible.  But, there are a few people that I've seen describe their symptoms that depart significantly from what's being described out there.  Of course, a couple of people departing significantly isn't inconsistent with the official descriptions of the vast majority of cases, but I still suspect there might be a lot we don't know about the human experience of this disease just based on lack of testing.

One nurse in CO describing her symptoms never had a fever or cough, but had severe fatigue for a day or two and a day of diarrhea/vomiting, and eventually some small amount of being winded.  A person in a lawyer's group I'm in described fatigue and headache, I think also some digestive symptoms, no cough or fever, until like day 5 when she had severe respiratory symptoms (tightness of chest/hard to breathe).  Actor Idris Elba says "I really haven't witnessed any major symptoms," (from here: https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/tv/2020/03/22/coronavirus-oprah-winfrey-talks-idris-elba-new-covid-19-series/2893782001/). 

There's no way I'm gonna get access to get tested.  But I've had the mildest of tickles in my throat/cough for about 5 days now.  I have a real cough like 2-3 times per day and then several other times I need to clear my throat or have a single cough.  I have no other symptoms at all.  But where the hell did I get this cough from?  I've never had just a simple cough with no other symptoms.  Certainly not a cold or flu and I don't have allergies.  It isn't super important, in that I'm self-isolating and doing all the proper cleaning and hygiene recs.  But, it sure would be nice to know and hearing a broader range of actual people's experience with it is interesting and helpful.

I don't know for sure that I had it when I got sick 3 weeks ago, but I had a sudden onset of crushing fatigue with a sore throat, joint pain, and low-grade fever that lasted for a few days, intermittent diarrhea and headache across my temples for about a week, and a persistent dry cough that was near constant at first and is now intermittent (when it does kick in, it is irrepressible). It was an unusual cluster of symptoms, and at the time I didn't think I had COVID-19 because testing was only just starting in my area (although logically I knew it had been in our area as soon as international students and holiday travelers returned). I am horrified to think that I might have infected others. I was washing my hands and not going out during the worst of the symptoms, but I didn't have the chest tightness or a high fever so I figured it couldn't be COVID-19 and didn't isolate for 2 weeks. Husband had similar but milder symptoms without the joint pain, and a week later his co-worker got very ill for a few days.

[MKinVA]

I just have to say that people who have flu like illnesses, but still go out are crazy and are the reason this thing is going around like a fucking wildfire. You do realize that there are a lot of people in your community who spend everyday with compromised immune systems and die of the regular old flu. Americans need to stay home and should have been staying home when sick for years. But somehow we have convinced ourselves that it is heroic to go out and about our business when sick! Maybe you didn't have COVID, maybe you did. But you had something, and probably did infect others with it. 

[OtherJen]

I just have to say that people who have flu like illnesses, but still go out are crazy and are the reason this thing is going around like a fucking wildfire. You do realize that there are a lot of people in your community who spend everyday with compromised immune systems and die of the regular old flu. Americans need to stay home and should have been staying home when sick for years. But somehow we have convinced ourselves that it is heroic to go out and about our business when sick! Maybe you didn't have COVID, maybe you did. But you had something, and probably did infect others with it.

I did stay home for several days while symptomatic. I work from home so that was never an issue, and canceled all volunteer work. I had felt completely fine even the day before; when the fatigue and other symptoms hit, it was like a switch flipped. Yes, I may have infected people while being completely asymptomatic, before my symptoms kicked in, but I don't know how I could have known to stay home before I fell ill.

I already feel horrible about this, and fully realize now that I should have stayed in for a full 2 weeks. My case is a good warning and argument for a 3-week total lockdown, as I can't imagine that thousands of oblivious people aren't flocking to giant grocery stores within 24 hours before symptom onset.

[dividendman]

I wish they had antibody tests so people could see if they already had it.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

I wish they had antibody tests so people could see if they already had it.

Might have one soon:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037713v1

[Travis]

So one of my employees is now quarantined because his wife tested positive. No symptoms. She got it from someone at her work who got it from someone visiting from CA.

edit: oh, I'll add the testing went really fast--less than 3 hours.

Someone in my office is at home pending test results because he's had flu symptoms for a couple days. If the virus actually makes it into my building we're all screwed.  On a typical day I have face to face contact with about 20 people in five separate offices on opposite sides of the building. I barely interact with this particular soldier, but it's two to three degrees of separation to the people I do interact with.

You'll never guess what happened at work today...



It wasn't me, but by the end of the week I may be the only one left.* The infectious individual did two things that may make this a big one.  He ate at the food court across the street from the headquarters where damn near everybody passes through on a typical lunch period**, and he works in one of the IT help desks.  People come to see him frequently. The rest of his cubicle mates go out and sit at other people's desks. My team has physical interactions with him weekly. I'm at 6 out of 13 quarantined from my team and the notification is only 4 hours old.  Nobody has symptoms and nobody has been tested yet, but it's about to be an interesting week.

* If a member of my team caught it from this guy and passed it on to me, then my earlier post still stands. I was in a conference room with 20 other people on Monday and had conversations with at least 10 others since then.

** It doesn't sound like he showed symptoms until the day after this lunch routine.

[LennStar]

Since you can be infectous for days before getting symptoms (or even getting none), this may get very interesting.

My little town has the first confirmed 3 cases, too.

[OtherJen]

Here's another account of symptoms from an administrator at a school not far from my home. https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/wayne/2020/03/24/west-village-academy-carletta-counts-coronavirus/2906260001/