coronavirus

[better late]

 In my state, people are only now getting results from COVID 19  tests taken 7 days ago.
 
This week they say the turnaround is 48 hours because it’s now being done in-state, albeit hours away.

Our administration had MONTHS to prepare for this.

[OtherJen]

In my state, people are only now getting results from COVID 19  tests taken 7 days ago.
 
This week they say the turnaround is 48 hours because it’s now being done in-state, albeit hours away.

Our administration had MONTHS to prepare for this.

Yep. Public health is not ever a concern for this administration—if it were, Pence would never have been chosen—but at least the Very Stable Genius has been able to maintain his regular taxpayer-funded golf-and-club routine.

[PDXTabs]

I think there’s a sense that we all have to make decisions at a state, local, or private level because the federal government is not even up to the task of providing unified guidelines.

Basically, what you're describing is a Libertarian paradise!

Exactly! The tea party promised to dismantle the federal bureaucracy until it was non-functional. They have succeeded.

[kenmoremmm]

reading this should make your blood boil:
https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/its-just-everywhere-already-how-delays-in-testing-set-back-the-u-s-coronavirus-response-2/
(open in private window if needed to subvert paywall)

sure seems like the administration should be held accountable.   how does one penalize for trillions of lost $$$?

[PDXTabs]

sure seems like the administration should be held accountable.

Absolutely, French Revolution style.

how does one penalize for trillions of lost $$$?

Guillotines on the house floor.

[Luke Warm]

i think this whole corona virus thing is just a test run for something bigger. intentional or otherwise. i'm not paranoid though.

[Boofinator]

sure seems like the administration should be held accountable.

Absolutely, French Revolution style.

how does one penalize for trillions of lost $$$?

Guillotines on the house floor.

The French Revolution spared nobody, and in the end they voted in a dictator and then a king.

[PDXTabs]

The French Revolution spared nobody, and in the end they voted in a dictator and then a king.

Define "nobody." Most people did not lose their head. I for one would like to skip the hyperinflation part, but I'd love a unicameral parliamentary democracy. The founders of the USA though that we would rewrite the constitution every one or two generations. I'd be fine with that.

[RetiredAt63]

The French Revolution spared nobody, and in the end they voted in a dictator and then a king.

Define "nobody." Most people did not lose their head. I for one would like to skip the hyperinflation part, but I'd love a unicameral parliamentary democracy. The founders of the USA though that we would rewrite the constitution every one or two generations. I'd be fine with that.

Parliamentary democracies also have flaws, just different ones.  Getting election procedures run by an independent body (like Elections Canada) (i.e. voter registration, riding boundaries that make sense) is standard, and helps a lot.  No reason you can't have that in a federal system.

[PDXTabs]

Parliamentary democracies also have flaws, just different ones.

Absolutely, but at this point in my tenure in the USA I'd dearly like to try out those new and exciting flaws. Particularly the flaw where one party can be in power and actually get something done.

[OtherJen]

Parliamentary democracies also have flaws, just different ones.

Absolutely, but at this point in my tenure in the USA I'd dearly like to try out those new and exciting flaws. Particularly the flaw where one party can be in power and actually get something done.

Careful. The only reason the ACA hasn’t been repealed entirely is because the GOP doesn’t currently control every branch of government.

[PDXTabs]

Careful. The only reason the ACA hasn’t been repealed entirely is because the GOP doesn’t currently control every branch of government.

I'm aware. But remember the six years when Obama was in office when he couldn't get anything done? I'm willing to take the bad with the good, having spent my entire adult life in this system.

EDITed to add: and remember, a unicameral parliamentary system would mean throwing the Senate and the Electoral College in the trash.

[Boofinator]

The French Revolution spared nobody, and in the end they voted in a dictator and then a king.

Define "nobody." Most people did not lose their head. I for one would like to skip the hyperinflation part, but I'd love a unicameral parliamentary democracy. The founders of the USA though that we would rewrite the constitution every one or two generations. I'd be fine with that.

By nobody, I meant no class or political persuasion. Robespierre killed, Marat killed, even some of the really good guys like Thomas Paine and Marquis de Lafayette narrowly escaped death due to outside influence and a hell of a lot of luck. And when you consider the common revolutionaries, how many died in the wars that consumed some million French people? All to cheer the return of a king in 1814/1815?

[OtherJen]

Careful. The only reason the ACA hasn’t been repealed entirely is because the GOP doesn’t currently control every branch of government.

I'm aware. But remember the six years when Obama was in office when he couldn't get anything done? I'm willing to take the bad with the good, having spent my entire adult life in this system.

EDITed to add: and remember, a unicameral parliamentary system would mean throwing the Senate and the Electoral College in the trash.

I've spent my entire 42-year life in this system so yes, I do remember. I remember panicking about healthcare during the last recession. Repeal of the ACA would have meant that many people would be deemed uninsurable and therefore, what will likely be a bad situation over the next few months would have been even worse.

If we had two sane parties, I'd say sure, let's give it a go. The Electoral College in its current form makes no sense. But right now, one party is essentially a cult devolving towards a banana republic. The mere idea of giving them more control is horrifying.

[RetiredAt63]

Parliamentary democracies also have flaws, just different ones.

Absolutely, but at this point in my tenure in the USA I'd dearly like to try out those new and exciting flaws. Particularly the flaw where one party can be in power and actually get something done.

That is a plus and a minus.  A party with a solid majority can be as arbitrary as any dictatorship.  And if there is an upper house, it can also slow things down.  Not stop, but certainly delay.

[American GenX]

Parliamentary democracies also have flaws, just different ones.

Absolutely, but at this point in my tenure in the USA I'd dearly like to try out those new and exciting flaws. Particularly the flaw where one party can be in power and actually get something done.

Careful. The only reason the ACA hasn’t been repealed entirely is because the GOP doesn’t currently control every branch of government.

Even when they had control, they couldn't repeal it or get any of their replacements passed, such as "skinny repeal".  But they did manage to get the mandate penalty reduced to $0 as part of the tax bill, and a federal judge in a Texas direct court ruled the mandate unconstitutional and that the rest of the ACA was inseverable and falls as well.  An appeals court agreed with the district court on the mandate being unconstitutional, and the Supreme Court is going to hear the case next term.  So, there's a chance the entire ACA could fall due to that small change to the penalty in the tax bill, with the republicans never having voted successfully to repeal the ACA.  It's up to SCOTUS now, so we'll be waiting a while.

[Just Joe]

i think this whole corona virus thing is just a test run for something bigger. intentional or otherwise. i'm not paranoid though.

My most Hollywood-esque conspiracy theory idea is that the COVID-19 virus is just insider trading on a grand scale.

Create a situation that our gov't is unwilling to properly manage, let people panic and sell off investments, let well-funded insiders buy them up, etc.

Perhaps rinse and repeat next year if like flu - this becomes an annual sickness.

In reality I don't think it is a conspiracy - just another example of why we Americans can't rely on the gov't (especially Republican led gov'ts) to take care of people. Look to US hurricanes and earthquakes for examples.

[kenmoremmm]

i think this whole corona virus thing is just a test run for something bigger. intentional or otherwise. i'm not paranoid though.

My most Hollywood-esque conspiracy theory idea is that the COVID-19 virus is just insider trading on a grand scale.

Create a situation that our gov't is unwilling to properly manage, let people panic and sell off investments, let well-funded insiders buy them up, etc.

Perhaps rinse and repeat next year if like flu - this becomes an annual sickness.

In reality I don't think it is a conspiracy - just another example of why we Americans can't rely on the gov't (especially Republican led gov'ts) to take care of people. Look to US hurricanes and earthquakes for examples.

my theory is that it's a targeted virus aimed at old and/or immunocompromised people to reduce economic drag on medicare, SS, etc. also, possible democratic fix to kill off trump's supporters.

[partgypsy]

No fans, no crowds at the acc. This is big.

[LennStar]

In reality I don't think it is a conspiracy - just another example of why we Americans can't rely on the gov't (especially Republican led gov'ts) to take care of people. Look to US hurricanes and earthquakes for examples.

In The Dictator's Handbook - why bad behavior is often good politics
the authors also compare reactions to such catastrophes in different countries.

Their main point of the book is that the amount of people the ruler needs means how good (for all) the politics are.
The US, with a 2 party system and such things as the electoral college, are on the lowest end of Democracies and as such cannot expect good policies whoever they vote on.

[DarkandStormy]

Sports:
-NBA season is suspended
-NHL season is suspended
-MLS season suspended for at least 30 days
-Nearly all college basketball conference tournaments are cancelled
-I believe the WTP announced cancellations as well

Entertainment:
-Live Nation expected to announce a cancellation of concerts for the next month.

[LennStar]

At least they can still do Robot Wars, since robots can't catch a cold!

[GuitarStv]

Sports:
-NBA season is suspended
-NHL season is suspended
-MLS season suspended for at least 30 days
-Nearly all college basketball conference tournaments are cancelled
-I believe the WTP announced cancellations as well

Entertainment:
-Live Nation expected to announce a cancellation of concerts for the next month.

More importantly . . . BIKE RACES BEING CANCELLED LEFT, RIGHT, AND CENTER!  Will the tour even be on this year???

[Michael in ABQ]

i think this whole corona virus thing is just a test run for something bigger. intentional or otherwise. i'm not paranoid though.

My most Hollywood-esque conspiracy theory idea is that the COVID-19 virus is just insider trading on a grand scale.

Create a situation that our gov't is unwilling to properly manage, let people panic and sell off investments, let well-funded insiders buy them up, etc.

Perhaps rinse and repeat next year if like flu - this becomes an annual sickness.

In reality I don't think it is a conspiracy - just another example of why we Americans can't rely on the gov't (especially Republican led gov'ts) to take care of people. Look to US hurricanes and earthquakes for examples.

What do you think the federal government should be doing? Declaring a complete lockdown of multiple cities or states? Requiring that everyone who could have become infected get tested and quarantined? The virus is already in almost every single state and most of the countries around the world. Is shutting down large parts of the country for weeks an appropriate response? We have thousands die every month from auto accidents and we still drive, same with other endemic diseases like the flu.

[DarkandStormy]

We have thousands die every month from auto accidents and we still drive, same with other endemic diseases like the flu.

Ah the dumb whataboutism to other causes of death.  Proof positive we need education reform in this country.

[PDXTabs]

What do you think the federal government should be doing? Declaring a complete lockdown of multiple cities or states? Requiring that everyone who could have become infected get tested and quarantined? The virus is already in almost every single state and most of the countries around the world. Is shutting down large parts of the country for weeks an appropriate response? We have thousands die every month from auto accidents and we still drive, same with other endemic diseases like the flu.

I personally think that you should look to Italy and South Korea for an appropriate response. The more you slow the spread the more people who need an ICU bed will get one.

[Hirondelle]

What do you think the federal government should be doing? Declaring a complete lockdown of multiple cities or states? Requiring that everyone who could have become infected get tested and quarantined? The virus is already in almost every single state and most of the countries around the world. Is shutting down large parts of the country for weeks an appropriate response? We have thousands die every month from auto accidents and we still drive, same with other endemic diseases like the flu.

Have you talked to any Italians recently?

Italy had about 240 flu deaths this year - may end up being a little higher as the season isn't over yet.

Italy has about 3000-3500 traffic related fatalities per year (source: wikipedia). That's about 9-10 per day.

Today, Italy lost 189 people due to COVID-19. Just today. Yesterday it was 196. That's almost 200 deaths a day and considering they only started to seriously lock down the area/country last weekend, this number is expect to go up for a while.

Just two to three weeks ago, when I talked to my Italian friends the coronavirus was an overblown thing, mostly a Chinese problem. Today, every single Italian I know (there's about 15 Italians in my regular social circle, from all over the country but mostly the very affected north) wished their country would have acted earlier. The Italian community in my city is urging everyone to stay home, to help prevent the spread, to stop travel to just about anywhere that's not the supermarket.

I've heard the stories from Italy. Heard the rumour they have to choose which patient can get IC care and how they have to base it on chance of survival (so young, healthy folks first)? Yeah, they're true. Their death rate is so high because they cannot help all the patients that need intensive care. Healthcare workers can barely get a break and they often fall sick themselves, burdening the system even more.

When it was China/Wuhan people said 'yeah, it's a major city with an insufficient health care system'. Well, in Italy it's spread out in cities and villages and Italy is known to have one of the best healthcare systems in the world. They still can't manage.

Don't be Italy. Act now.

ETA: Nobody said that flu deaths shouldn't be prevented (that's why we get shots!) and that car deaths shouldn't be prevented (that's why we go against car clowns and promote biking!).

[MasterStache]

i think this whole corona virus thing is just a test run for something bigger. intentional or otherwise. i'm not paranoid though.

My most Hollywood-esque conspiracy theory idea is that the COVID-19 virus is just insider trading on a grand scale.

Create a situation that our gov't is unwilling to properly manage, let people panic and sell off investments, let well-funded insiders buy them up, etc.

Perhaps rinse and repeat next year if like flu - this becomes an annual sickness.

In reality I don't think it is a conspiracy - just another example of why we Americans can't rely on the gov't (especially Republican led gov'ts) to take care of people. Look to US hurricanes and earthquakes for examples.

What do you think the federal government should be doing? Declaring a complete lockdown of multiple cities or states? Requiring that everyone who could have become infected get tested and quarantined? The virus is already in almost every single state and most of the countries around the world. Is shutting down large parts of the country for weeks an appropriate response? We have thousands die every month from auto accidents and we still drive, same with other endemic diseases like the flu.

Right, if only folks could keep their auto accidents from infecting those more susceptible to auto accidents we could save more lives. Amirite?

[redbirdfan]

I'm certainly not a doctor, virologist or epidemiologist, but it seems to me that in light of an exponentially spreading virus to which we have no immunity, the best thing to do to actually solve the problem is just shut everything down for 2-4 weeks and use the resources of the federal government to prop up the economy for that time.  Plan B would be to due rampant testing Oprah-style (you get a test, and you get a test) and use the data to selectively quarantine people and places.  Plan C would be to keep people from going into places that are virus-free (assuming you could actually know a place was virus free).  What you absolutely wouldn't do is know that major cities have ongoing outbreaks and allow people to flow into and out of those cities unchecked and refuse to test anyone unless they fit very specific criteria completely unrelated to their actual probability of having the virus. 

They are currently not performing tests in the Seattle area unless and until to test negative for a myriad of other conditions.  They are not administering the test if you do not have a fever - even if you have all the other symptoms.  We have no idea how widespread the virus is.  What's worse is that we aren't seriously trying to find out.

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

I'm certainly not a doctor, virologist or epidemiologist, but it seems to me that in light of an exponentially spreading virus to which we have no immunity, the best thing to do to actually solve the problem is just shut everything down for 2-4 weeks and use the resources of the federal government to prop up the economy for that time.  Plan B would be to due rampant testing Oprah-style (you get a test, and you get a test) and use the data to selectively quarantine people and places.  Plan C would be to keep people from going into places that are virus-free (assuming you could actually know a place was virus free).  What you absolutely wouldn't do is know that major cities have ongoing outbreaks and allow people to flow into and out of those cities unchecked and refuse to test anyone unless they fit very specific criteria completely unrelated to their actual probability of having the virus. 

They are currently not performing tests in the Seattle area unless and until to test negative for a myriad of other conditions.  They are not administering the test if you do not have a fever - even if you have all the other symptoms.  We have no idea how widespread the virus is.  What's worse is that we aren't seriously trying to find out.

This thing was out of control weeks ago. I think all that can be said now is that everyone is going to get it. If I were in charge I'd be gearing up hospitals on one hand, and gearing up finding a vaccine on the other. The entire planet will have it within 12 months. There needs to be a free vaccine for all people at severe risk NOW or literally hundreds of millions will die in the next year or so. That's the reality. The only point of keeping it out of any country is to buy time to get a vaccine. This IS the zombie apocalypse. We're just incredibly lucky that it's not a worse virus.  Maybe well learn from this before the next really bad thing comes along.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

I'm certainly not a doctor, virologist or epidemiologist, but it seems to me that in light of an exponentially spreading virus to which we have no immunity, the best thing to do to actually solve the problem is just shut everything down for 2-4 weeks and use the resources of the federal government to prop up the economy for that time.  Plan B would be to due rampant testing Oprah-style (you get a test, and you get a test) and use the data to selectively quarantine people and places.  Plan C would be to keep people from going into places that are virus-free (assuming you could actually know a place was virus free).  What you absolutely wouldn't do is know that major cities have ongoing outbreaks and allow people to flow into and out of those cities unchecked and refuse to test anyone unless they fit very specific criteria completely unrelated to their actual probability of having the virus. 

They are currently not performing tests in the Seattle area unless and until to test negative for a myriad of other conditions.  They are not administering the test if you do not have a fever - even if you have all the other symptoms.  We have no idea how widespread the virus is.  What's worse is that we aren't seriously trying to find out.

This thing was out of control weeks ago. I think all that can be said now is that everyone is going to get it. If I were in charge I'd be gearing up hospitals on one hand, and gearing up finding a vaccine on the other. The entire planet will have it within 12 months. There needs to be a free vaccine for all people at severe risk NOW or literally hundreds of millions will die in the next year or so. That's the reality. The only point of keeping it out of any country is to buy time to get a vaccine. This IS the zombie apocalypse. We're just incredibly lucky that it's not a worse virus.  Maybe well learn from this before the next really bad thing comes along.

A workable vaccine in the short-run seems unlikely, but who knows. The good news is there might be other treatments that can help.

[Buffaloski Boris]

i think this whole corona virus thing is just a test run for something bigger. intentional or otherwise. i'm not paranoid though.

My most Hollywood-esque conspiracy theory idea is that the COVID-19 virus is just insider trading on a grand scale.

Create a situation that our gov't is unwilling to properly manage, let people panic and sell off investments, let well-funded insiders buy them up, etc.

Perhaps rinse and repeat next year if like flu - this becomes an annual sickness.

In reality I don't think it is a conspiracy - just another example of why we Americans can't rely on the gov't (especially Republican led gov'ts) to take care of people. Look to US hurricanes and earthquakes for examples.

What do you think the federal government should be doing? Declaring a complete lockdown of multiple cities or states? Requiring that everyone who could have become infected get tested and quarantined? The virus is already in almost every single state and most of the countries around the world. Is shutting down large parts of the country for weeks an appropriate response? We have thousands die every month from auto accidents and we still drive, same with other endemic diseases like the flu.

In a word, yes.  Lock this down.  Lock it down hard.  Quarantine like there's no tomorrow.  We're already past containment.  This is a flipping war, and we need to treat it as one. We do not want the same situation that Italy is finding itself in: doctors deciding which patients get on ventilators because they simply don't have enough to go around. If the medical system gets overwhelmed, and it might, a lot of people who didn't need to die will.We can minimize a lot of death and suffering by some shared inconvenience.   

[PDXTabs]

In a word, yes.  Lock this down.  Lock it down hard.  Quarantine like there's no tomorrow.  We're already past containment.  This is a flipping war, and we need to treat it as one. We do not want the same situation that Italy is finding itself in: doctors deciding which patients get on ventilators because they simply don't have enough to go around. If the medical system gets overwhelmed, and it might, a lot of people who didn't need to die will.We can minimize a lot of death and suffering by some shared inconvenience.

Yes, but I firmly believe that the USA won't. There are still people in my social media circles, today, that think that this is all a media hoax. I am convinced that the USA will see massive casualties, but would love to be wrong.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

In a word, yes.  Lock this down.  Lock it down hard.  Quarantine like there's no tomorrow.  We're already past containment.  This is a flipping war, and we need to treat it as one. We do not want the same situation that Italy is finding itself in: doctors deciding which patients get on ventilators because they simply don't have enough to go around. If the medical system gets overwhelmed, and it might, a lot of people who didn't need to die will.We can minimize a lot of death and suffering by some shared inconvenience.

Yes, but I firmly believe that the USA won't. There are still people in my social media circles, today, that think that this is all a media hoax. I am convinced that the USA will see massive casualties, but would love to be wrong.

At my work (corporate HQ with close to 1000 employees on site) the response has been as follows:
1) send out a vague email telling sick employees to stay home (but maximum sick days per year is 5)
2) prop open a door that is normally closed so that people don't have to touch it to pass through

That's it! As far as 1) goes, I spent all day listening to all of the different dry coughs around the office. People are still not taking any of this seriously and Rudy Gobert is their patron saint. I actually think the sports cancellations are getting some of the troglodytes to finally take notice of the situation.

[Kris]

In a word, yes.  Lock this down.  Lock it down hard.  Quarantine like there's no tomorrow.  We're already past containment.  This is a flipping war, and we need to treat it as one. We do not want the same situation that Italy is finding itself in: doctors deciding which patients get on ventilators because they simply don't have enough to go around. If the medical system gets overwhelmed, and it might, a lot of people who didn't need to die will.We can minimize a lot of death and suffering by some shared inconvenience.

Yes, but I firmly believe that the USA won't. There are still people in my social media circles, today, that think that this is all a media hoax. I am convinced that the USA will see massive casualties, but would love to be wrong.

Yep. And the people who think it’s a hoax are supporters of a president who desperately needs to keep them on his side. So he’s going to do everything he can to minimize, for as long as he can.

Which means, no way will we lock this down.

[OtherJen]

In a word, yes.  Lock this down.  Lock it down hard.  Quarantine like there's no tomorrow.  We're already past containment.  This is a flipping war, and we need to treat it as one. We do not want the same situation that Italy is finding itself in: doctors deciding which patients get on ventilators because they simply don't have enough to go around. If the medical system gets overwhelmed, and it might, a lot of people who didn't need to die will.We can minimize a lot of death and suffering by some shared inconvenience.

Yes, but I firmly believe that the USA won't. There are still people in my social media circles, today, that think that this is all a media hoax. I am convinced that the USA will see massive casualties, but would love to be wrong.

It's going to happen only at state/local levels. Last night, the governor of Michigan ordered all preK-12 schools closed until April 6. Many of our colleges and universities have voluntarily opted for online classes only. My city cancelled city council meetings and closed the libraries and senior centers. At least one local mosque cancelled services, and I'm waiting for churches to follow suit after the interfaith network decided to switch their meeting to virtual format.

Our federal government has proven useless, which is why state governors are stepping up.

[LennStar]

This thing was out of control weeks ago. I think all that can be said now is that everyone is going to get it. If I were in charge I'd be gearing up hospitals on one hand, and gearing up finding a vaccine on the other. The entire planet will have it within 12 months. There needs to be a free vaccine for all people at severe risk NOW or literally hundreds of millions will die in the next year or so. That's the reality. The only point of keeping it out of any country is to buy time to get a vaccine. This IS the zombie apocalypse. We're just incredibly lucky that it's not a worse virus.  Maybe well learn from this before the next really bad thing comes along.

Millions, but not hundreds of millions, luckily it is not that bad a virus. It won't be "Arrival of the Europeans in the New World" style of pandemic.

If you want to help the efforts to find a vaccine, you can donate your computer's calculating power here: https://foldingathome.org/

Here in Germany my company is now basically remote-only (not that hard for programmers), and other companies are doing the same, often crushing their VPN infrastructure.
In many areas schools are already close or have extended holidays. Universities etc. are putting the new semester one month forward into April.

[dignam]

I think there’s a sense that we all have to make decisions at a state, local, or private level because the federal government is not even up to the task of providing unified guidelines.

Right!? I have gotten 10x more communication from my employer about how we're going to go forward with this, vs. state and local leaders.

My company just announced this morning that we are 100% WFH across the globe (tens of thousands of workers).  Our local office actually officially closed yesterday and told people to wfh indefinitely.

[Plina]

I think there’s a sense that we all have to make decisions at a state, local, or private level because the federal government is not even up to the task of providing unified guidelines.

Right!? I have gotten 10x more communication from my employer about how we're going to go forward with this, vs. state and local leaders.

My company just announced this morning that we are 100% WFH across the globe (tens of thousands of workers).  Our local office actually officially closed yesterday and told people to wfh indefinitely.

Here in Sweden, the one that have been proactive are the companies that have put in effect travel bans and asked people to work from home. The government and the health authorities have for a long time told that the carantine and tracing routine is enough until two days ago when they told that it is spreading internally and not only due to trips to Italy, China etc. The local muncipalities are also jo closing facilities for elders from visits and issuing travel bans.

We are joking that the productivity of the officeworker will go significantly up as everyone can work undisturbed from home and you don’t need to travel for business.

[Boofinator]

Millions, but not hundreds of millions, luckily it is not that bad a virus. It won't be "Arrival of the Europeans in the New World" style of pandemic.

A hundred million deaths are possible, if we continue business as usual (thankfully, that is not happening). The mortality rate has been shown to be significantly less than 1% when people receive first-world treatment, but spike to several percent when hospitals are overwhelmed. Multiply this by the world population and divide by 2 (assuming only half the world gets it prior to herd immunity kicking in), and we could see the number quoted.

I wouldn't by any stretch call this the zombie apocalypse, but it does appear to have the potential to be the worst pandemic in a hundred years.

[PDXTabs]

It's going to happen only at state/local levels. Last night, the governor of Michigan ordered all preK-12 schools closed until April 6. Many of our colleges and universities have voluntarily opted for online classes only. My city cancelled city council meetings and closed the libraries and senior centers. At least one local mosque cancelled services, and I'm waiting for churches to follow suit after the interfaith network decided to switch their meeting to virtual format.

But none of these state responses are at the level of South Korea, China, or Italy. South Korea is testing 20K people a day. Italy won't let you travel to the neighboring town.

I'm in OR which is not quite as bad and CA, WA, or NY. We're closing all schools, but I've been asking local businesses how it's going. Coffee shops traffic is down but not nonexistent. Convenience store traffic is as usual. My two yoga studios are still open with traffic at ~50%. I have a wedding to go to out of state in May with no travel ban in place (weddings are banned in Italy, as is unnecessary travel far away from your home). The convenience store manager would love to close, but its a corporate chain and her boss will fire her if she's not there 6am-3pm five days a week (it's 24 hours).

EDITed to add - and no queue control. In Italy businesses are responsible for making sure people queue 1m apart, and police are on the streets to enforce it.

[Just Joe]

In a word, yes.  Lock this down.  Lock it down hard.  Quarantine like there's no tomorrow.  We're already past containment.  This is a flipping war, and we need to treat it as one. We do not want the same situation that Italy is finding itself in: doctors deciding which patients get on ventilators because they simply don't have enough to go around. If the medical system gets overwhelmed, and it might, a lot of people who didn't need to die will.We can minimize a lot of death and suffering by some shared inconvenience.

Yes, but I firmly believe that the USA won't. There are still people in my social media circles, today, that think that this is all a media hoax. I am convinced that the USA will see massive casualties, but would love to be wrong.

Yep. And the people who think it’s a hoax are supporters of a president who desperately needs to keep them on his side. So he’s going to do everything he can to minimize, for as long as he can.

Which means, no way will we lock this down.

I think Trump and Pence need to get this virus and recover. And the world needs to know about it. Trump needs to be forced to acknowledge reality for once.

[GuitarStv]

Trumps not in the age or health category that does well with Covid-19.

[Just Joe]

I thought about that. Don't want to wish death on anyone even Trump who I dislike bigly.

[Freedom2016]

I think Trump and Pence need to get this virus and recover. And the world needs to know about it. Trump needs to be forced to acknowledge reality for once.

Unfortunately, if they got it and recovered, all we would hear is how overblown this whole thing is: "the libtards said this virus kills people like us, but look! We're back better than ever. What a hoax!"

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

This thing was out of control weeks ago. I think all that can be said now is that everyone is going to get it. If I were in charge I'd be gearing up hospitals on one hand, and gearing up finding a vaccine on the other. The entire planet will have it within 12 months. There needs to be a free vaccine for all people at severe risk NOW or literally hundreds of millions will die in the next year or so. That's the reality. The only point of keeping it out of any country is to buy time to get a vaccine. This IS the zombie apocalypse. We're just incredibly lucky that it's not a worse virus.  Maybe well learn from this before the next really bad thing comes along.

Millions, but not hundreds of millions, luckily it is not that bad a virus. It won't be "Arrival of the Europeans in the New World" style of pandemic.

If you want to help the efforts to find a vaccine, you can donate your computer's calculating power here: https://foldingathome.org/

Here in Germany my company is now basically remote-only (not that hard for programmers), and other companies are doing the same, often crushing their VPN infrastructure.
In many areas schools are already close or have extended holidays. Universities etc. are putting the new semester one month forward into April.

What's 3.4% of the world's population?

[PDXTabs]

What's 3.4% of the world's population?

Many people on this forum think that since China, South Korea, and Singapore seem to have things under control that everyone else will be okay. I'm not in this camp.

(7,770,409,772 - 1,386,000,000 - 51,470,000 - 5,612,000) * 0.7 * 0.034 = 150,590,401

That 70% of the world population outside of China, Singapore, and South Korea getting infected with 3.4% dying. That could be wildly off, but I'd be surprised if it is off by 10x. We'll see, I'd love to be wrong.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

What's 3.4% of the world's population?

Many people on this forum think that since China, South Korea, and Singapore seem to have things under control that everyone else will be okay. I'm not in this camp.

(7,770,409,772 - 1,386,000,000 - 51,470,000 - 5,612,000) * 0.7 * 0.034 = 150,590,401

That 70% of the world population outside of China, Singapore, and South Korea getting infected with 3.4% dying. That could be wildly off, but I'd be surprised if it is off by 10x. We'll see, I'd love to be wrong.

South Korea is converging to ~0.9%-1% case fatality rate where testing has been most extensive. Of course, outcomes depend on demographics (age, smoking matter a lot), possibly virus strain, and how overwhelmed medical resources are.

[PDXTabs]

lost_in_the_endless_aisle,

I agree, which is one of the reasons I could be off. Meanwhile, Italy is over 6%.

[maizefolk]

What's 3.4% of the world's population?

Many people on this forum think that since China, South Korea, and Singapore seem to have things under control that everyone else will be okay. I'm not in this camp.

(7,770,409,772 - 1,386,000,000 - 51,470,000 - 5,612,000) * 0.7 * 0.034 = 150,590,401

That 70% of the world population outside of China, Singapore, and South Korea getting infected with 3.4% dying. That could be wildly off, but I'd be surprised if it is off by 10x. We'll see, I'd love to be wrong.

South Korea is converging to ~0.9%-1% case fatality rate where testing has been most extensive. Of course, outcomes depend on demographics (age, smoking matter a lot), possibly virus strain, and how overwhelmed medical resources are.

Yup, South Korea is basically a best case scenario for low mortality from this virus: affluent society, most of the infected were disproportionately young,* and their healthcare system's capacity for urgent and intensive care wasn't overwhelmed.

*The church where the virus first spread widely in Korea seems to have been mostly people in their 20s and 30s.