Author Topic: Coronavirus Weekly Update  (Read 57668 times)

maizefolk

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #700 on: September 04, 2021, 10:01:54 AM »
There are only 24 greek letters and mu is already the 12th. I hope someone is thinking about what we do once we hit 24 named variants.

WHO has already mentioned using the names of constellations. I can only hope they're planning to use the original names and not the English versions since that would sound both unserious and confusing. "I have some bad news. Grandma has The Little Bear and the doctor says it's probably going to kill her."

Okay, that makes sense. Assuming we skip over "cancer" and "lupus" for obvious reasons that means another 86 potential variant names. May more than I would have guessed, which makes sense ow that I think about it since I don't know any of the southern hemisphere constellations. Thanks.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #701 on: September 04, 2021, 06:23:11 PM »
It's never lupus.

Abe

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #702 on: September 04, 2021, 07:45:09 PM »
Interesting (in a bad way) stats from CDC: 23% of all deaths last month in the 40-49 age group were covid-related. (Compared to pandemic average of 10%). That’s a similar rate to the 70+ age group (who are more likely to be vaccinated).

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#SexAndAge

GodlessCommie

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #703 on: September 05, 2021, 09:33:44 AM »
Interesting (in a bad way) stats from CDC: 23% of all deaths last month in the 40-49 age group were covid-related. (Compared to pandemic average of 10%). That’s a similar rate to the 70+ age group (who are more likely to be vaccinated).

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#SexAndAge

Old enough to already be vulnerable, young enough to still feel invincible.

maizefolk

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #704 on: September 05, 2021, 09:50:27 AM »
Actually looking at monthly deaths, a big contributor the large jump in the percent of all 40-49 year old deaths explained by coronavirus in the last month was a drop in total deaths for that age bracket (7,000 some instead of 10,000+). That works out to only ~5,500 non-coronavirus related deaths in August vs ~10,000 in every other month. Not sure if that represents reporting lag with many more August deaths left to be added to the August totals or if these are finalized numbers for the month already and something about this August resulted in many fewer deaths from other causes than from other months this summer or last summer.

The absolute death numbers from coronavirus are already plenty big. August '21 was 4th highest number of coronavirus deaths month for 40-49 year olds since the pandemic started. (I couldn't get April of 2020 in the screenshot with August of 2021 which is the 3rd month along with Dec '20 and Jan '21 where more total 40-49 year olds died from the coronavirus). 


OtherJen

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #705 on: September 05, 2021, 10:09:58 AM »
Actually looking at monthly deaths, a big contributor the large jump in the percent of all 40-49 year old deaths explained by coronavirus in the last month was a drop in total deaths for that age bracket (7,000 some instead of 10,000+). That works out to only ~5,500 non-coronavirus related deaths in August vs ~10,000 in every other month. Not sure if that represents reporting lag with many more August deaths left to be added to the August totals or if these are finalized numbers for the month already and something about this August resulted in many fewer deaths from other causes than from other months this summer or last summer.

The absolute death numbers from coronavirus are already plenty big. August '21 was 4th highest number of coronavirus deaths month for 40-49 year olds since the pandemic started. (I couldn't get April of 2020 in the screenshot with August of 2021 which is the 3rd month along with Dec '20 and Jan '21 where more total 40-49 year olds died from the coronavirus). 



Given that all other monthly totals were above 10k, even a year ago when we were having a much smaller COVID surge, I suspect that it’s a reporting lag. The actual numbers from the last week of the month may be delayed a bit further due to the holiday weekend. I’d be curious to see what the August 2021 numbers look like in a couple of weeks after the various reporting agencies have caught up.

JoJo

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #706 on: September 05, 2021, 10:44:07 AM »
Yup, reporting lag for sure... these were the same type of numbers that were used for the memes showing YTD 2020 were the same as YTD 2019 as of December... when final numbers came in, 2020 was 18% higher that any prior year.  Don't trust the numbers for the last 3 months or so, but for sure the most recent month... these numbers will increase greatly. 

Abe

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #707 on: September 05, 2021, 12:40:40 PM »
Good point in the all causes discrepancy. Even assuming the total deaths stays around 10k, already we’d be at 17% from coronavirus - point being as you mentioned, it is a significant cause of mortality. I think in a normal society if there’s a 17% mortality from one single easy-to-prevent thing, the population as a whole would do that thing that prevents it.

OtherJen

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #708 on: September 05, 2021, 02:50:53 PM »
Good point in the all causes discrepancy. Even assuming the total deaths stays around 10k, already we’d be at 17% from coronavirus - point being as you mentioned, it is a significant cause of mortality. I think in a normal society if there’s a 17% mortality from one single easy-to-prevent thing, the population as a whole would do that thing that prevents it.

One would have thought so. One thing I've learned over the last 18 months is that the phrase "avoid it like the plague" is meaningless in modern US society.

Abe

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #709 on: September 09, 2021, 09:15:37 PM »
This may be a little early, but it looks like the southeast is cresting the current wave and some states are on the early part of a down-slope finally. It is spreading north-wards through the Midwest, though.



DarkandStormy

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #710 on: September 10, 2021, 09:43:04 AM »
Actually looking at monthly deaths, a big contributor the large jump in the percent of all 40-49 year old deaths explained by coronavirus in the last month was a drop in total deaths for that age bracket (7,000 some instead of 10,000+). That works out to only ~5,500 non-coronavirus related deaths in August vs ~10,000 in every other month. Not sure if that represents reporting lag with many more August deaths left to be added to the August totals or if these are finalized numbers for the month already and something about this August resulted in many fewer deaths from other causes than from other months this summer or last summer.

The absolute death numbers from coronavirus are already plenty big. August '21 was 4th highest number of coronavirus deaths month for 40-49 year olds since the pandemic started. (I couldn't get April of 2020 in the screenshot with August of 2021 which is the 3rd month along with Dec '20 and Jan '21 where more total 40-49 year olds died from the coronavirus). 



"Deaths from all causes" is now up to 9,825 for August 2021 for that age group.

Glenstache

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #711 on: September 10, 2021, 09:59:52 AM »
Good point in the all causes discrepancy. Even assuming the total deaths stays around 10k, already we’d be at 17% from coronavirus - point being as you mentioned, it is a significant cause of mortality. I think in a normal society if there’s a 17% mortality from one single easy-to-prevent thing, the population as a whole would do that thing that prevents it.

One would have thought so. One thing I've learned over the last 18 months is that the phrase "avoid it like the plague" is meaningless in modern US society.
Does that mean avoid it using medieval strategies and superstitions? If so, we've got it licked. 

OtherJen

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #712 on: September 10, 2021, 10:11:24 AM »
Good point in the all causes discrepancy. Even assuming the total deaths stays around 10k, already we’d be at 17% from coronavirus - point being as you mentioned, it is a significant cause of mortality. I think in a normal society if there’s a 17% mortality from one single easy-to-prevent thing, the population as a whole would do that thing that prevents it.

One would have thought so. One thing I've learned over the last 18 months is that the phrase "avoid it like the plague" is meaningless in modern US society.
Does that mean avoid it using medieval strategies and superstitions? If so, we've got it licked.

Ha, fair point. Some parts of society don't seem to have advanced much beyond 1348 in terms of belief in superstition and lack of understanding of the germ theory of disease.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #713 on: September 10, 2021, 10:40:44 AM »
This may be a little early, but it looks like the southeast is cresting the current wave and some states are on the early part of a down-slope finally. It is spreading north-wards through the Midwest, though.

If the report from Israel regarding immunity after contraction and recovery from Covid is accurate, it's possible that between the number of vaccinations and high number of those who have contracted and recovered (or died for that matter) from Covid in the southeast, we may be seeing the very beginnings of some sort of herd immunity.

OtherJen

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #714 on: September 10, 2021, 10:46:03 AM »
This may be a little early, but it looks like the southeast is cresting the current wave and some states are on the early part of a down-slope finally. It is spreading north-wards through the Midwest, though.

If the report from Israel regarding immunity after contraction and recovery from Covid is accurate, it's possible that between the number of vaccinations and high number of those who have contracted and recovered (or died for that matter) from Covid in the southeast, we may be seeing the very beginnings of some sort of herd immunity.

I sincerely hope so. Between vaccination and the rapid spread of Delta, it seems plausible for the first time.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #715 on: September 10, 2021, 12:45:27 PM »
Btw, the U.S. share of worldwide reported covid deaths has dipped below 15% (~14.6%).

~1 in every 500 Americans has died of covid.

OtherJen

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #716 on: September 10, 2021, 01:13:01 PM »
Btw, the U.S. share of worldwide reported covid deaths has dipped below 15% (~14.6%).

~1 in every 500 Americans has died of covid.

Yikes.

(Because I know that the numbers are important: Worldometer states 674,795 total US COVID deaths as of 5 minutes ago. The Census.gov Population Clock estimates a US population of 332,730,964. [Total US covid deaths/US population]*100 = 0.2%.)

v8rx7guy

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #717 on: September 10, 2021, 02:03:47 PM »
Btw, the U.S. share of worldwide reported covid deaths has dipped below 15% (~14.6%).

~1 in every 500 Americans has died of covid.

Yikes.

(Because I know that the numbers are important: Worldometer states 674,795 total US COVID deaths as of 5 minutes ago. The Census.gov Population Clock estimates a US population of 332,730,964. [Total US covid deaths/US population]*100 = 0.2%.)

Which makes sense considering 1/500 = 0.2% :)

OtherJen

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #718 on: September 10, 2021, 03:17:00 PM »
Btw, the U.S. share of worldwide reported covid deaths has dipped below 15% (~14.6%).

~1 in every 500 Americans has died of covid.

Yikes.

(Because I know that the numbers are important: Worldometer states 674,795 total US COVID deaths as of 5 minutes ago. The Census.gov Population Clock estimates a US population of 332,730,964. [Total US covid deaths/US population]*100 = 0.2%.)

Which makes sense considering 1/500 = 0.2% :)

Yes. But there's always someone who complains about not seeing the numbers.

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #719 on: September 10, 2021, 08:42:04 PM »
You’re right. I had to go do the math myself.

Locally, we’re closer to 1 out of 1,000, but a few more weeks of high numbers will sadly bring us closer to the national average.

Abe

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #720 on: September 10, 2021, 09:44:12 PM »
Distribution of cases (6 to 36%) and deaths (0.09-0.87%) is quite variable across counties here in Texas:

Hardest hit with deaths are the very rural counties with <10k populations (almost 1% of the population has died so far in some areas). Many of these are ongoing with very low vaccination rates (<30% in most cases). I don't think this is statistical sampling error since these death and vaccination rates are consistent across the very rural counties in the state.

Out of counties with >50k people, Maverick and Starr counties on the Rio Grande were hit hardest (0.7 and 0.5% of the entire population has died so far). Many of these were before vaccines were readily available, and now their vaccination rates are among the highest in Texas (>50% vaccinated).


Relatively spared are the largest cities  (Austin, Houston, Dallas):
Around Austin: 8.5-11% and 0.09-0.16%
Houston: 10-13% and 0.10-0.16%
Dallas-Forth Worth: 11-15% and 0.09-0.19%
San Antonio: 14% and 0.21%

These areas also have >50% vaccination rates. So there's an order of magnitude difference in death rates between counties.


« Last Edit: September 10, 2021, 09:46:17 PM by Abe »

marty998

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #721 on: September 10, 2021, 10:57:22 PM »

DarkandStormy

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #722 on: September 20, 2021, 09:53:16 AM »
Actually looking at monthly deaths, a big contributor the large jump in the percent of all 40-49 year old deaths explained by coronavirus in the last month was a drop in total deaths for that age bracket (7,000 some instead of 10,000+). That works out to only ~5,500 non-coronavirus related deaths in August vs ~10,000 in every other month. Not sure if that represents reporting lag with many more August deaths left to be added to the August totals or if these are finalized numbers for the month already and something about this August resulted in many fewer deaths from other causes than from other months this summer or last summer.

The absolute death numbers from coronavirus are already plenty big. August '21 was 4th highest number of coronavirus deaths month for 40-49 year olds since the pandemic started. (I couldn't get April of 2020 in the screenshot with August of 2021 which is the 3rd month along with Dec '20 and Jan '21 where more total 40-49 year olds died from the coronavirus). 



"Deaths from all causes" is now up to 9,825 for August 2021 for that age group.



Still some backdating happening.  August 2021 was by far the worst month for covid deaths among 40-49 year olds in the U.S.  Ditto for the 30-39 year old cohort.

maizefolk

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #723 on: September 20, 2021, 10:53:22 AM »
Looks like additional deaths continue to be added as far back as January (although only one in that month). So that suggests that, while we have a floor for how bad deaths were in August right now, it'll likely continue to get worse as more reports trickle in at least through the end of this year.

JGS1980

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #724 on: September 24, 2021, 02:36:15 PM »
Haven't done the full update in a while. Definitely no longer a "weekly" update as I was getting burnout from all the data.
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USA % of the worldwide population.  331 Million of 7.8 Billion =  4.24%

3/26/20 -1070 deaths of 22993 deaths worldwide = 4.65%
4/2/20   -5148 US deaths of 49236 deaths worldwide = 10.46%
4/9/20   -16129 US deaths of 94807 deaths worldwide = 17.01%
4/16/20 -32826 deaths of 143725 deaths worldwide = 22.84%
4/23/20 -46851 deaths of 185434 deaths worldwide = 25.27%
4/30/20 -61547 deaths of 230615 deaths worldwide = 26.69%  ---> Why isn't this going down yet? Because we are STILL SURGING as a country despite measures to open up the economy right now.
5/07/20  -73573 deaths of 264602 deaths worldwide = 27.81%
5/14/20 -84144 deaths of 297682 deaths worldwide = 28.26% --> still surging, folks
5/21/20 -93606 deaths of 329300 deaths worldwide =28.42% --> have we hit a peak relative to the rest of the world?
5/28/20 -100442 deaths of 356131 deaths worldwide = 28.20%
6/4/20   -107685 deaths of 387634 deaths worldwide = 27.78%
6/11/20 -113038 deaths
6/18/20 -117783 deaths of 449965 deaths worldwide = 26.17%
6/25/20 -126823 deaths
7/2/20 -128184 deaths of 517162 deaths worldwide = 24.79 %
7/9/20 -132498 deaths of 550689 deaths worldwide = 24.06 %
7/16/20 -137420 deaths of 584990 deaths worldwide = 23.49 %
7/23/20 -143224 deaths of 624370 deaths worldwide = 22.94 %
7/30/20 -151077 deaths of 667935 deaths worldwide = 22.62 %
8/7/20 -160111 deaths of 715555 deaths worldwide = 22.38 %
8/13/20 -166361 deaths of 750744 deaths worldwide = 22.16%
8/20/20 -173241 deaths of 788803 deaths worldwide = 21.96%
8/27/20 -179977 deaths of 827110 deaths worldwide = 21.76%
9/3/20 -186018 deaths of 864153 deaths worldwide = 21.53%
9/10/20 -191168 deaths of 905089 deaths worldwide = 21.12%
9/17/20 -196912 deaths of 941862 deaths worldwide = 20.91%
9/24/20 -202170 deaths of 977881 deaths worldwide = 20.67%
10/1/20 -207331 deaths of 1016050 deaths worldwide = 20.41%
10/08/20 -212420 deaths of 1058698 deaths worldwide = 20.06%
10/15/20 -217155 deaths of 1093921 = 19.85%  ***Between India first wave and European second wave, I doubt our ratio will rise again any time soon.
10/22/20 -222234 deaths of 1133699 = 19.60%
10/29/20 -227897 deaths of 1176328 = 19.37%
11/5/20 -234225 deaths of 1229671 = 19.04%
11/12/20 -241495 deaths of 1283612 =18.81%
11/19/20 -250898 deaths of 1354205 = 18.53%
11/26/20 -263218 deaths of 1428951 = 18.42% *There may be another inflection point coming up as Covid19 rages on in the USA as the Indian 1st wave and the European 2nd wave become gradually controlled.
12/3/20 -273746 deaths of 1496247 = 18.30%
12/10/20 -289970 deaths of 1574294 = 18.42% ***See inflection point above. Curving upwards again. This is REALLY BAD NEWS for the United States.
12/17/20 -308098 deaths of 1654461 = 18.62%
12/24/20 -326271 deaths of 1732755 = 18.83%
12/31/20 -343233 deaths of 1811128 = 18.95%
1/7/2021 -361900 deaths of 1887970 = 19.17%
1/14/2021 -385503 deaths of 1983691 = 19.43%
1/21/2021 -406536 deaths of 2080009 = 19.55%
1/28/2021 -429870 deaths of 2180867 = 19.71%
2/4/2021 -451454 deaths of 2273515 = 19.86%
2/11/21 -472450 deaths of 2359200 = 20.02%
2/18/21 -490875 deaths of 2434048 = 20.17%
2/25/21 -506121 deaths of 2499964 = 20.25%
3/4/21 -518380 deaths of 2562739 = 20.23% *another inflection point?
3/11/21 -529469 deaths of 2623286 = 20.18%
3/18/21 -538269 deaths of 2683639 = 20.06%
3/25/21 -545357 deaths of 2746581 = 19.86%
4/2/21 -553310 deaths of 2830839 = 19.54%
4/8/21 -559219 deaths of 2891206 = 19.34%
4/15/21 -564489 deaths of 2976229 = 18.97% *a nice trend since early March. Likely vaccine related.
4/22/21 -569828 deaths of 3064038 = 18.60%
4/29/21 -574355 deaths of 3153746 = 18.21% *India, Brazil, Eastern Europe together with US vaccines will only see this number drop from now on.
5/6/21 -579653 deaths of 3247198 = 17.85%
5/13/21 -583832 deaths of 3334587 = 17.57%
5/21/21 -588613 deaths of 3433137 = 17.15%
5/28/21 -593466 deaths of 3514082 = 16.89%
6/4/21 -596783 deaths of 3704833 = 16.11% ***This percentage is dropping really fast all of a sudden. Vaccines are working in the USA, apparently.
7/10/21 -606996 deaths of 4021345 = 15.09%
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9/24/21 -685759 deaths of 4733562 = 14.48% despite our recent upswing

US and Worldwide death data is taken from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center site.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

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Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/2021

1. Peru [5551] +3490 ***absolutely huge official statistic change in Peru. They are now easily the most afflicted by Covid19.
2. Hungary [3094] +14 *still decelerating
3. Czechia [2810] +5
4. Bulgaria [2579] +23
5. Slovakia [2267] +9
6. Brazil [2196] +61 *still rather elevated while the rest of the world drops
7. Belgium [2148] +38
8. Italy [2094] +9
9. Croatia [1976] +18
10. Poland [1960] +15
11. UK [1874] +1
12. USA [1839] +12
13. Colombia [1758] +70
14. Mexico [1754] +33
15. Argentina [1752] *back on list after long hiatus. Appears to be another South America boom.

50+ India [247] + 15 *decelerating now (if you believe the numbers).   Another 22000 deaths in India in the last week.

*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
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Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/10/2021

1. Peru [5804]
2. Hungary [3114]
3. Czechia [2827]
4. Bulgaria [2631]
5. Brazil [2484]
6. Slovakia [2292]
7. Colombia [2172]
8. Belgium [2165]
9. Argentina [2152]
10. Italy [2116]
11. Croatia [2017]
12. Poland [1988]
13. Paraguay [1912]
14. UK [1881]
15. USA [1870]


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Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/24/2021

1. Peru [5939]
2. Hungary [3131]
3. Bulgaria [2959]
4. Czechia [2837] -no movement at all last couple months. strange
5. Brazil [2766]
6. Argentina [2511]
7. Colombia [2445]
8. Slovakia [2305]
9. Paraguay [2229]
10. Georgia [2198]
11. Belgium [2192]
12. Italy [2164]
13. USA [2111]
14. Croatia [2103]
15. Mexico [2099]

*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

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Total USA Deaths [New Weekly Deaths]
3/26/20 -1070
4/2/20   -5148 [4078 new deaths in the previous week]
4/9/20   -16129 [10981]
4/16/20 -32826 [16697]
4/23/20 -46851 [14025]
4/30/20 -61547 [14696]
5/07/20  -73573 [12026]
5/14/20 -84144 [10571]
5/21/20 -93606 [9462 new deaths in the previous week]
5/28/20 -100442 [6836 new deaths]
6/4/20 -107685 [7243 new deaths] -are we beginning to have a second wave?
6/11/20 -113038 [5353]
6/18/20 -117783 [4745] -continues to improve
6/25/20 -120,800 [3017] -*** corrected using Johns Hopkins data
7/2/20  -128,184 [7384] -
7/9/20 -132,498 [4314] -hospitals and ICU units hitting capacity in Florida, Texas, Arizona is not reassuring. I suspect deaths to pick up now. How high? Who knows?
7/16/20 -137,420 [4922] -trend is not encouraging at all. Here comes the slowly rising wave...
7/23/20 -143,224 [5804] -yup, getting into the 1K deaths per week territory again
7/30/20 -151,077 [7853] -pretty big bump. No sign of this slowing down as Texas and Florida just beat their previous deaths per day records.
8/6/20 -160,111 [9034]
8/13/20 -166,361 [6250]
8/20/20 -173,241 [6880]-about 1K per day on average over the last 4 weeks noted. At this rate we will have 250K deaths by election day on Nov 3rd.
8/27/20 -179,977 [6736] -remains about 1 K per day. No real change of late, unfortunately. Oh, and school has restarted in most areas of the USA.
9/3/20 -186,018  [6041] -trend *may be decreasing. We will see how things go.
9/10/20 -191,168 [5150] -trend is encouraging compared to South America. I would have taken this 2 weeks ago knowing school was about to start. Take the win.
9/17/20 -196,912 [5744] -last 3 weeks have been fairly steady
9/24/20 -202170 [5258]
10/1/20 -207331 [5161]
10/8/20 -212420 [5089] -US is nothing if not consistent
10/15/20 -217155 [4735] -BUT, infection rates are rising again throughout the country. Get ready for the second wave.
10/22/20 -222234 [5079]
10/29/20 -227897 [5663] ->11% rise in US deaths in the last 7 days. I don't think this is artifact, I think things are accelerating.  We are averaging 75K new infections per day over the last week.  On a more positive note, case fatalities per infection appear to be coming down in the US.
11/5/20 -234225 [6328] -number of deaths continue to rise as expected. God help us if local health systems get overwhelmed again like in NYC, New Orleans, Detroit early in the Pandemic.
11/12/20 -241495 [7270] -back to 1K per day deaths and rising. 75K new infections per day now seems quaint. We have averaged over 130K in the last 7 days.
11/19/20 -250898 [9403] -10 K per week is next milestone. 6 weeks till New Years, will we hit 300K? Seems likely at this point.
11/26/20 -263218 [12320] -WHOA. Avg >170K cases per week. And it seems like no one except my family are following Thanksgiving distancing recommendations by the CDC. Keep your elders safe everyone!
12/3/20 -273746 [10528] -suspect reporting lag due to the holidays. If I'm right, then this will bump up a bit in the following week, and then come down, and then steadily rise for a while thereafter. We reached 100 K current Covid admissions nationwide with no sign of this slowing down. The previous peak was 60 K.
12/10/20 -289970 [16224] -!!!
12/17/20 -308098 [18128] -!!!!! That's the all-time peak, folks. Hospitalizations due to Covid continue to peak as well at 113 K.
12/24/20 -326271 [18173] -Well, at least it's not accelerating.
12/31/20 -343233 [16962]
1/07/2021 -361900 [18667] -New Peak again. Sadly these are just abstract numbers in my head right now. Not sinking in that 4K Americans died just yesterday.
1/14/2021 -385503 [23603] -huge bump in the last week!!! Way worse than NYC in the Spring of 2020. Avg 3300+ deaths per day.
1/21/2021 -406536 [21033] -still ridiculously high. Should eventually come down with national infection trends and vaccine rollouts.
1/28/2021 -429870 [23334] -yup, still high. Since infections till death takes about 2-6 weeks, and infections appear to be coming down nationwide now (with hot pockets, of course). I suspect deaths should begin to come down in the next 2-6 weeks. Hopefully 2 weeks.
2/4/2021 -451454 [21584] -continues to average >20K deaths per week in the USA. Hopefully begins to truly trend down this upcoming week, following the case data.
2/11/21 -472450 [20996] -no trending down as of yet. I'm beginning to get worried that people are just testing a lot less, thus case counts are going down but deaths are not. Are we taking our feet off the gas?
2/18/21 -490875 [18425] -okay, seeing some movement here in the right direction. Hospitalizations are down to 63K from 134K just 30 days ago.
2/25/21 -506121 [15246] -nice progression. Also, down to 54K hospitalizations. Daily cases in US seem to be leveling off at 50K-75K per day over the last 10 days after a steep drop over the holidays.
3/4/21 -518380 [12259] -deaths still coming down. 45K hospitalizations is down too. Daily cases have stabilized at somewhere between 48K and 75K over the last 18 days. Beware the next wave.
3/11/21 -529469 [11089] -slowly dropping still. Daily cases 44-65K.
3/18/21 -538269 [8800] -huge step in the last week. Daily cases 45-55K or so.
3/25/21 -545357 [7088] -still coming down. * https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/hospitalization-7-day-trend * JHU Website shows that Covid ICU Admissions are down about 1000 in the last week. So number of really sick are still coming down despite an uptick in recent cases per day. Peak was 29K Covid ICU admissions in January, now down to 9.4K this week. Tell me if you disagree, but I think this is a better measure of current pandemic than cases right now since it seems less at risk folks are doing as they please, and meanwhile we now have higher saturation of the vaccine with more at-risk folks.
4/1/21 -553310 [7001] -I substracted yesterday's 952 deaths -stable over the last week. Total cases are coming up again 66K per day over the last week. Lets hope the vaccinations of the oldest/sickest prevent increased Covid deaths. 1 year tracking anniversary this week.
4/8/21 -559219 [5909] -deaths coming down still. Yay! Cases coming up, but with a younger median age as vaccinations continue.
4/15/21 -564489 [5270]
4/22/21 -569828 [5339] -static in the last week. Hopefully this is just a blip on the way down.
4/29/21 -574355 [4527] -nice drop
5/6/21 -579653 [5298] -blip?
5/13/21 -583832 [4179] -dropping in the US
5/21/21 -588613 [4183] -change x 7/8 (for extra day)
5/28/21 -593466
6/4/21 -596783 [3317] -goo movement in the right direction
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7/10/21 -606996 [10213 in the last 36 days: AVG 284 deaths per day due to Covid in the USA]
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9/24/21 -685759 [12093 deaths in the last 7 days-worst since March 2021]

Abe

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #725 on: September 29, 2021, 08:51:43 PM »
I guess at this point some areas have true herd immunity? I know Texas put no effort into slowing covid this time around but cases are dropping! Yee *wheeze* haw!

DarkandStormy

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #726 on: October 01, 2021, 08:19:10 AM »
I guess at this point some areas have true herd immunity? I know Texas put no effort into slowing covid this time around but cases are dropping! Yee *wheeze* haw!

It's still not known if herd immunity will be enough to stamp out covid.  There are new variants, reports of re-infections, etc.  We still don't know.

It could simply become endemic like the flu, with multiple strains or variants.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #727 on: October 01, 2021, 11:27:42 AM »




August & September 2021 will be the two deadliest months of the pandemic for those aged 30-49 once the backdating is completed.

Pre-covid, ~6k 30-39 year olds were dying each month of all causes and <10k/month for 40-49 year olds.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #728 on: October 01, 2021, 01:44:10 PM »
I guess at this point some areas have true herd immunity? I know Texas put no effort into slowing covid this time around but cases are dropping! Yee *wheeze* haw!

It's still not known if herd immunity will be enough to stamp out covid.  There are new variants, reports of re-infections, etc.  We still don't know.

It could simply become endemic like the flu, with multiple strains or variants.

I don't think there's any question that it's here to stay in some form or another. Lots of states in "flyover country" had unexplained, drastic declines in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in Nov and Dec 2020. These drops occurred before vaccines were available, and during the height of the holiday season, when many family gatherings were taking place. Many people, including me hypothesized that these locations had likely reached a point of "herd immunity", but then Delta came around and the numbers went up quite a bit, even with highly effective vaccines in 1/3-1/2 of the populations.
I still haven't read a reasonable explanation for the declines that many states saw last year. It just underscores how much we still don't understand about viruses like these.

jrhampt

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #729 on: October 01, 2021, 02:38:56 PM »
I've read that outbreaks seem to have a 2 month cycle and they're not really sure why.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Coronavirus Weekly Update
« Reply #730 on: November 11, 2021, 09:49:18 AM »
Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 6/4/2021

1. Peru [5551] +3490 ***absolutely huge official statistic change in Peru. They are now easily the most afflicted by Covid19.
2. Hungary [3094] +14 *still decelerating
3. Czechia [2810] +5
4. Bulgaria [2579] +23
5. Slovakia [2267] +9
6. Brazil [2196] +61 *still rather elevated while the rest of the world drops
7. Belgium [2148] +38
8. Italy [2094] +9
9. Croatia [1976] +18
10. Poland [1960] +15
11. UK [1874] +1
12. USA [1839] +12
13. Colombia [1758] +70
14. Mexico [1754] +33
15. Argentina [1752] *back on list after long hiatus. Appears to be another South America boom.

50+ India [247] + 15 *decelerating now (if you believe the numbers).   Another 22000 deaths in India in the last week.

*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
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Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 7/10/2021

1. Peru [5804]
2. Hungary [3114]
3. Czechia [2827]
4. Bulgaria [2631]
5. Brazil [2484]
6. Slovakia [2292]
7. Colombia [2172]
8. Belgium [2165]
9. Argentina [2152]
10. Italy [2116]
11. Croatia [2017]
12. Poland [1988]
13. Paraguay [1912]
14. UK [1881]
15. USA [1870]


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Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 9/24/2021

1. Peru [5939]
2. Hungary [3131]
3. Bulgaria [2959]
4. Czechia [2837] -no movement at all last couple months. strange
5. Brazil [2766]
6. Argentina [2511]
7. Colombia [2445]
8. Slovakia [2305]
9. Paraguay [2229]
10. Georgia [2198]
11. Belgium [2192]
12. Italy [2164]
13. USA [2111]
14. Croatia [2103]
15. Mexico [2099]

*Country to country data is taken from Worldometer Coronavirus Tracking site. I do not include countries with less than 4 million people. This is arbitrary on my part, but initially was a way of avoiding confounding trends just because, say, San Marino or Gibraltar didn't skew the results.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

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Top 15 (only including countries >4 million people) with [deaths/million] as of 11/11/2021

1. Peru [5969]
2. Bulgaria [3745]
3. Hungary [3298]
4. Czechia [2914]
5. Brazil [2843]
6. Romania [2739]
7. Georgia [2699]
8. Argentina [2539]
9. Colombia [2473]
10. Slovakia [2454]
11. Croatia [2388]
12. USA [2339]
13. Belgium [2253]
14. Paraguay [2244]
15. Mexico [2220]

Bulgaria and Romania are in their worst surges of the entire pandemic right now.