He stands no chance of winning.
I said the same thing about him in 2016, twice.
Yup. I said that Brexit would never pass and that Trump would never get elected.
No one, and I mean NO ONE who voted against him in 2016 will have been persuaded to vote for him in 2020 after the disaster of his presidency. And his demographic of angry old white dudes has been, let's just say, actuarially challenged in the last 4 years.
That's a fantasy. Tax cuts, judges, Supreme Court...those things alone will have brought some people over.
I mentioned my independent-voter father upthread. It's true that he voted for Trump, and in THIS election (presuming the Dem were Biden or Bloomberg), he insists he won't make that mistake again, and regularly wishes a variety of painful deaths on Trump. You would think this would hearten me as to Trump's nonviability next November.
HOWEVER, let us rewind to 2004, when I was absolutely CERTAIN that no wishy washy independent voters would possibly lean into a second term for W (at that point the biggest fuck up of a president of the modern era), esp given the centrist, non-threatening, very experienced John Kerry as an opponent. But....surprise...they did!
I have been utterly disgusted with American voters ever since, but I will never overestimate their judgement again. An guess what my father did in THAT election? He voted for Al Gore in 2000 b/c he thought Bush was a 'lightweight', BUT THEN VOTED FOR BUSH IN 2004, DESPITE ADMITTING TO ME HE LIKED KERRY FINE! You know why? Small government, tax cuts, strong military blah blah blah blah. About 6 months after THAT vote, Dad was bemoaning it as the worst vote of his life (which it was, until his vote for Trump, obvs).
Now, you can judge my father to have extremely poor political instincts, and I'd be the first to agree. But he isn't actually stupid (he graduated from college, was extremely successful building and running a small business, was a self made millionaire, and is a MMM, frugal, practical sort who would love Pete's philosophy in many ways.)
Yet he still made these two votes, against all apparent logic. B/C: State and local rights, military funding, tax cuts, conservative judges, etc.
I think Trump's odds of winning re-election have shrunk to just under even, if the recession bites down and holds. But after 2004, I will never underestimate the probability of seemingly insane voter decisions. And certainly not after 2012.