Contingency planning for unlikely events

[cheapass]

So being Mustachians, we're all extremely interested in financial security for ourselves and our families. At some point we have enough cash flow generating assets and a low enough spending level that we would be fine if we never saw another paycheck.  How many of us make provisions for other kinds of security to prepare for unlikely but potentially devastating events? Some of these measures may be referred to as "prepping".

For physical security, we have a monitored alarm system and a dog. We also own and are proficient with firearms in case someone is not deterred by the first two and the police can not arrive in time.

As far as food/water security, it is one of my goals post-FIRE to move to a mountainous area that has a stream nearby and have a large garden and some livestock - rabbits, goats, chickens etc. In the event of a global crisis I want to know that even without access to my millions of dollars of financial assets, my family will not starve. And even if life continues on as normal I'll save a TON of money on food and can reduce my income even further, letting the stash compound on itself :)

Anyone have similar strategies for risk management?

[RyanAtTanagra]

So, I lost my favorite uncle a few years ago to diabetes complications due to being obese.  He was a prepper, never left the house without his concealed handgun, etc.  He ignored his most-likely scenario threats while worrying about the least-likely.  Since then I've altered a lot about what I focus my energy on.

What are the odds of:

a) someone breaking into your house
b) while you're home
c) with the intention of hurting you our your family
d) and you being able to change that outcome with a firearm

Don't get me wrong, I own a handgun and am fairly proficient at it, but not because I think it's going to increase my likelihood of survival.

If you have finances taken care of, there are a lot of other areas you should be focusing on before prepping, imo.  'Contingency planning for unlikely events' is counter-productive when resources (time) are limited.  What are the biggest (most likely) threats to you and your family's health and well being?  Assuming you're male, probably heart disease.  Are you doing everything you can to ensure your kids don't lose their dad prematurely?

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-things-most-likely-to-kill-you-in-one-infographic-2015-2

Nothing wrong with land in the country with a water source and garden/livestock.  I want those things too, but because I enjoy gardening and chickens.  I just am sad when I see people designing their lives around things that are the least likely to happen.  It's inefficient at best, deadly at worst (see above).

[Cornbread OMalley]

As far as food/water security, it is one of my goals post-FIRE to move to a mountainous area that has a stream nearby and have a large garden and some livestock - rabbits, goats, chickens etc.

I think that is self-sufficiency at its best.  A stash of emergency rations in your mountain home and a large-caliber long gun would be good ideas too.

[Tom Bri]

I do minor-league prepping, but it is mainly because I enjoy these activities, gardening, shooting and the like. If the whole country goes to sh#t in some economic or political melt-down, we are all screwed. Having some supplies in the basement is a good idea, since disasters do happen pretty frequently on a local scale.
Living in a rural area, on a farm, sounds very pleasant. I grew up in that life, and wouldn't get lonely or bored. I doubt many big-city people could handle the isolation for long though.

[Zamboni]

I don't make contingency plans for highly unlikely events. There is always enough gas in a car to drive to the nearest hospital without having to stop for gas, but that's as far as I take it.

Unless you count the fact that my son has offered to protect our family with his hunting bow in the event of a zombie apocalypse . . .  and that we can likely live from my baseline level of food stores for at least a month. I don't consider that prepping, though, it's just buying in bulk.

[Larabeth]

I definitely romanticize the idea of becoming more self-sufficient.  We definitely want to move to an area where we are able to take care of more of our own needs and be less dependent on the outside world once FIRE hits.

But we are also planning on retiring after having more money saved up than what we actually need for month to month living expenses. 

To me this is just another way of diversifying and the self-sufficiency part of it is fascinating to me!

[GrowingTheGreen]

So, I lost my favorite uncle a few years ago to diabetes complications due to being obese.  He was a prepper, never left the house without his concealed handgun, etc.  He ignored his most-likely scenario threats while worrying about the least-likely.  Since then I've altered a lot about what I focus my energy on.

What are the odds of:

a) someone breaking into your house
b) while you're home
c) with the intention of hurting you our your family
d) and you being able to change that outcome with a firearm

Don't get me wrong, I own a handgun and am fairly proficient at it, but not because I think it's going to increase my likelihood of survival.

If you have finances taken care of, there are a lot of other areas you should be focusing on before prepping, imo.  'Contingency planning for unlikely events' is counter-productive when resources (time) are limited.  What are the biggest (most likely) threats to you and your family's health and well being?  Assuming you're male, probably heart disease.  Are you doing everything you can to ensure your kids don't lose their dad prematurely?

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-things-most-likely-to-kill-you-in-one-infographic-2015-2

Nothing wrong with land in the country with a water source and garden/livestock.  I want those things too, but because I enjoy gardening and chickens.  I just am sad when I see people designing their lives around things that are the least likely to happen.  It's inefficient at best, deadly at worst (see above).

This is exactly how I feel about it.  "Prepping" focuses too much time/energy on a fantasy survival situation.  It robs you of resources that can otherwise be focused on preventing a much more likely pathway to your death.  It blows my mind when I come across the "I need my handgun for self-defense because I don't want to die unnecessarily" person and they've got a cigarette hanging out of their mouth.

I think the way to treat it would be as a hobby--not a lifestyle.  Focus more on skills, not things.  Learning to be self-sufficient can be a fun and productive hobby, but it shouldn't take over your life.

[Paul der Krake]

On top of having liquid savings, I do this mitigate SHTF episodes:

- keep $20 in my glovebox in case my wallet is lost or stolen when on the road and rarely ever go below 1/4 tank.
- keep a healthy balance of frequent flier point in case I need to go home in a pinch. Haven't had to use it yet, but my grandparents aren't getting any younger.
- about three days worth of dry food in the pantry. It won't be good, but we won't starve in the first week waiting for the military to drop supplies from the skies, or whatever it is they do in disaster situations.

It's not much, but covers the annoying events. I don't worry about freak events like robberies or attacks at all.

[No Name Guy]

"I don't plan for unlikely events"....

Mmmm-Kay.....

So you don't have fire insurance on your home?  Odds of a home burning down in any year are tiny.

If you have young kids and a spouse dependent upon your income you don't have low cost term life insurance?  Odds of a 20-30 something dying in the next 10 years are super low.

The point being that for some events with catastrophic outcomes, doing some low cost hedging often times is well worth it.  Note that in both of these examples the monthly cost is on the order of tens of dollars and the time is minutes.

[RyanAtTanagra]

The point being that for some events with catastrophic outcomes, doing some low cost hedging often times is well worth it.  Note that in both of these examples the monthly cost is on the order of tens of dollars and the time is minutes.

Yea, that's the main difference.  How much time/mental energy/money are you putting into the contingency plans?  I have a BoB because I live in a big city with earthquake potential, and there have been 2 fires in my building in the 3 years I've lived here.  But it took minimal time to assemble (already had the backpack for camping anyway) and requires no/little ongoing thought.  I just see people fall down the slippery slope of putting too much effort into catastrophe planning and not enough into the real, statistically-likely threats.

[GuitarStv]

Anyone have similar strategies for risk management?

Yep!

I live in Canada, and am on friendly terms with my neighbours.




Why I think prepping is silly:
- We buy lots of stuff in bulk because it's cheaper, so usually have a reasonable amount of food in the basement.
- We have three toilets in the house which store a reasonable amount of fresh drinking water at all times, and are within walking distance of a couple rivers and a lake.
- We have a BBQ with propane tank in our back yard.
- We have camping gear, sleeping bags/blankets/camp stoves/flashlights/etc.
- We have cycling gear and tough, well maintained bikes.
- I'm a 200 lb, 6 ft tall guy who was a decent boxer and spent many years wrestling.  Pretty confident that anything I couldn't keep at bay with a crowbar or axe from the garage would kill me regardless of weapons I had at hand.

That covers most disasters I can think of.  What else exactly is there to prep for?

[Killerbrandt]

Neat post!

we have several Costco sized cases of water stored, fun fact, bottle water does not go bad. The chemicals may release and the water might smell funny, but if stayed sealed, its good

We have about 24 days worth of MREs

Solar and crank powered radio that also charges items.

A few pistols and a rifle, with enough ammo to last a few months.

Of course we have blankets and other stuff in the house, so that is not an issue. I am more worried about having to stay put in my house for several days to weeks if a disaster is happening or living out of my car.

[Bracken_Joy]

I follow the general government rec's: we have extra food and water on hand, and fill our camping tank with more water if we know a big storm is coming. We have a meeting place arranged if something happens and we're away from home.

We have some classic "prepper" skills, but just because that's how we live: hunting, fishing, camping, shooting, gardening, canning, etc. I enjoy these things, and even if I knew with certainty nothing bad would ever happen, I would still do them.

More than anything, as mentioned above, we plan for the likely events: we take care of our health and sleep, we eat our veggies, we don't smoke, we check our BPs, we're nice to our neighbors, we make sure we have health insurance, and we keep our health and emergency contacts and advance directives up to date.

[shadowmoss]

I keep off-site backups of my computer files, which has scans of important papers in case something happens to my home.  I have 2 water purifiers, one of which can be used on non-potable water to make it potable, but that is because I used to go hiking some and I also lived in Central America where I actually used them on a regular bases just in case.  I have hiking/camping gear.  I keep some cash and a couple of credit cards in case one card stops working (happens to me sometimes, like they send a new card and  change the pin on me which happened recently).  I know how to change a tire on my car, and do minor break/fix on it.  I know what direction to head out of town for the most likely reasons to need to leave.  I know what I will grab if I awake to find my house on fire or otherwise need to evacuate, and what order of importance each thing has depending on how much time I have.  I have non-refrigerated food in case I loose electricity, and my camping stove and 3 non-electric ways to make coffee if necessary (said I have the order of importance fixed in my mind...)

I think I'm marginally covered for most things that can disrupt my life.

[Curbside Prophet]

I would recommend a LifeStraw.  You can buy it for like $12-$15 on Amazon.  Light, compact, and will allow you to drink from any water source you need to last through whatever unlikely scenario you want to insert.

[Pigeon]

No prepping here, and to be honest, that mentality is foreign to me.

We generally keep a stocked pantry and have flashlights,  batteries and some bottled water.  If the zombie apocalypse comes, they can have my brain.

[GuitarStv]

Zombie apocalypse comes, the human race is pretty much fucked.  Even if you don't die right away, you're probably going to be barely surviving in some post apocalyptic hell.  The smart play is to get yourself bitten as soon as possible so that you can get in on the human brains while the pickin's good.

[MoonShadow]

No prepping here, and to be honest, that mentality is foreign to me.

We generally keep a stocked pantry and have flashlights,  batteries and some bottled water.  If the zombie apocalypse comes, they can have my brain.

These are self-contradictory claims.  Perhaps a misunderstanding about what the word "prepping" or "prepper" means to different people?  I'm of the opinion that, as a parent who lives in the countryside, it's my responsiblity to be able to feed, water & heat my family for at least a week.  This is similar to self-insurance against a minor crisis; such as a major snowstorm that shuts down local or state traffic for several days (which has actually happened twice in my adult life, once when I was 19 and drove a Fiero, a car with a clearance so low it would scoop snow into the radiator; and once when I was about 35, in both cases the Govenor declared an emergency and state troopers were giving out tickets to anyone on the highways without lights on the top of the vehicle).  In California, it was an earthquake prep; in Florida it was a hurricane prep.  The point is that the extreme examples you see on cable tv are just that, extreme examples.  There is a wisdom to having enough of everything in your house that you don't need to get to a Wal-Mart during a snowstorm or power outage.

And BTW, I don't worry about the water storage, because there is 30 gallons of tap water in my water heater at all times.  I'm pretty sure that's enough for drinking for a week, above and beyond whatever sodas and juice drinks we keep in the house anyway.

[mrpercentage]

In regards to guns, I own some  but will tell you they are a bad idea. I have had thoughts about selling them and buying some PG or JNJ with the money. I currently have them locked up because I think the odds of one of my kids killing the other by total accident is higher than me shooting a burglar. Guns can escalate a kick your ass scenario to lethal pretty fast.

So as an alternative buy bear deterrent at a Cabellas or bass pro. They spray 20+ feet and are stronger than police mace. They are not likely to kill somebody. You will never have to hesitate to use it. You won't shoot though a wall and kill a neighbors boy. That said they are totally illegal to use on people but so what. I will take an assault charge and save my family over a manslaughter charge. Finally they won't even be able to run away and will be easier to capture for police.

Two warnings. Don't leave it in a car. If the windows are rolled up the heat in the summer can make they explode. Also never take them in a small unpressurized plane as they can blow up there too. It should cost you $40 every three years or so. You don't want them to be too old because the gasket can fail making it spray everywhere including you when you use it.

[Pigeon]

I'm sure it does boil down to how you define "prepper."

The OP is talking about guns, dogs, alarms, and raising his own food, and seems to be concerned about the zombie apocalypse scenario.  That would be my idea of "prepper."

I've also lived through blizzards and a few hurricanes, when we were without power for a few days.   No big deal.  Having a well stocked pantry is more a matter of convenience for me than anything as I hate unscheduled grocery stops, and batteries and flashlights are things we use in the normal course of things, zombies notwithstanding. 

[mrpercentage]

Yeah. For hurricane and stuff jars of spaghetti sauce and a bunch of noodles is probably the most mustachian. 5 weeks of food for $20.

[SeanMC]

Being prepared for a minor to moderate natural disaster (earthquake, hurricane, wildfires, etc.) is different than a major one or other societal collapse (e.g., war, pandemic).

No power is no big deal, unless you rely on power to have heat & the temperature plummets to hypothermia inducing levels.

Having a BoB and knowing your roads to leave town works, unless there is no advance notice, everyone is jamming the same roads (and running out of fuel doing so), the radius of disaster is too large to flee, or militias have imposed a blockade/quarantine/etc.

Food and water stored up makes sense, until you are the only one around with that much non-perishable food and water, and you are (eventually) incapable of defending it from the many more people who also have weapons.

Having multiple sources of heat or fuel, some extra food and water, a good BoB can make it smooth sailing when a minor disaster hits, and it can turn the experience of a more prolonged recovery into a mere inconvenience.

Once things reach the type of disaster or catastrophe that most preppers are talking about, people are pretty overoptimistic about why they think they are the special snowflakes who will escape violence, disease, and harshness of nature.

[Paul der Krake]

In regards to guns, I own some  but will tell you they are a bad idea. I have had thoughts about selling them and buying some PG or JNJ with the money. I currently have them locked up because I think the odds of one of my kids killing the other by total accident is higher than me shooting a burglar. Guns can escalate a kick your ass scenario to lethal pretty fast.

So as an alternative buy bear deterrent at a Cabellas or bass pro. They spray 20+ feet and are stronger than police mace. They are not likely to kill somebody. You will never have to hesitate to use it. You won't shoot though a wall and kill a neighbors boy. That said they are totally illegal to use on people but so what. I will take an assault charge and save my family over a manslaughter charge. Finally they won't even be able to run away and will be easier to capture for police.

Two warnings. Don't leave it in a car. If the windows are rolled up the heat in the summer can make they explode. Also never take them in a small unpressurized plane as they can blow up there too. It should cost you $40 every three years or so. You don't want them to be too old because the gasket can fail making it spray everywhere including you when you use it.

In addition to everything you said, I would add that the cost of replacing non-lethal options pales in comparison to the running costs of purchasing, being licensed for (depending on your jurisdiction), maintaining, and regularly practicing with a firearm. Guns can make a fun hobby and save lives in the right hands, but they don't come cheap.

[FIRE me]

Anyone have similar strategies for risk management?

edit: add flashlight

I'm probably more prepared than most. That's not necessarily a good thing, as some preparations cost money.

I own a standby generator, purchased after two multi day power outages. I installed a power inlet box outside the house and an interlock on the main breaker box inside the house so I can safely and legally power up my whole house with the one exception of the central air conditioner.

I also own a snow blower, which is a luxury for the climate where I live. Some Winters I don't use it at all. Other Winters, I am very glad to have it.

I keep the gas tank on my car at least 50% full.

I keep at least a month's worth of nonperishable food on hand.

I keep gallon jugs of drinking (tap) water in the basement, where I would shelter in the event of a tornado. In the same shelter area, I keep a battery powered transistor radio, and an old flip style cell phone always plugged in to the charger. It has no service and can call 911 only. And a flashlight.

I have a few relatively cheap ($45 each) game cams on my property for security. Also a couple of spare automobile dash cams serving as security cams that only record five hours of video before overwriting.

One of my wants that I keep resisting is a high end security cam system, around $2,000. I don't think I'd be happy with less.

My most ridiculous want is a Geiger counter. I think that sooner or later terrorists will do something radioactive. Either with radioactive waste or an actual device. If that came to pass, a Geiger counter could be the difference between life and death. But of course such is thing is extremely unlikely to happen at my exact location.

[matchewed]

Even within the realm of unlikely scenarios only plan for the likely of those. Needing to feed yourself and your family for a week, "likely unlikely" (meaning it is in the realm of likely for the unlikely events). Needing a Geiger counter? Unlikely unlikely.

If you're going to go into the realm of unlikely unlikely then you need to plan for too many possibilities.

[FIRE me]

I agree. That is why I called it a ridiculous want.

[MoonShadow]

Once things reach the type of disaster or catastrophe that most preppers are talking about, people are pretty overoptimistic about why they think they are the special snowflakes who will escape violence, disease, and harshness of nature.

Typically, it's quite the exact opposite; they know they are not the special snowflakes and wish to improve their odds of success.  And we do have real examples of personal (homeless) and regional (Katrina) situations that a bit of preparation for bad times can improve; and the consensus is that pretty much every crisis can be prepared for in similar ways, up to a point of diminishing returns.  Most of those preps, most of us already have; such as a decent pocketknife or multitool, a lighter, a flashlight with good batteries, several days to weeks worth of staple foods that we can make meals out of that do not require refrigeration, access to safe drinking water, a bicycle, a backpack, a tarp, cordage; and more often than many here would like to believe, a firearm.  These things don't make a crisis comfortable, but a manageable degree of discomfort.  Anything beyond this is probably a case of diminishing returns, unless you like camping or hunting anyway.

And BTW, a dose of bear repellant can, and has, killed toddlers before; so don't assume that a can of bear spray is safer than a firearm locked into a gun safe, unless the bear spray is also locked in a safe.  In which case, what good would either do your family in a home invasion?  Also, none of my firearms have lost value, and some of them have appreciated a great deal since I bought them.  Your bear spray may be cheap, but it's also worthless in three years.

[MoonShadow]

In regards to guns, I own some  but will tell you they are a bad idea. I have had thoughts about selling them and buying some PG or JNJ with the money. I currently have them locked up because I think the odds of one of my kids killing the other by total accident is higher than me shooting a burglar. Guns can escalate a kick your ass scenario to lethal pretty fast.

This is statistically not true, but you really should sell them anyway.  It sounds like you never were the kind of person who should have owned any.  Even better, you could give them away to single, black women living in poor inner city neighborhoods; and you can significantly increase the odds that they will be used in an act of self-defense, if they are used at all.

[MoonShadow]

My most ridiculous want is a Geiger counter.

Yes, that is ridiculous. You want a spinthariscope.  They are cheaper, smaller, they often indicate directionality, and are non-electronic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spinthariscope

[maizefolk]

And we do have real examples of personal (homeless) and regional (Katrina) situations that a bit of preparation for bad times can improve; and the consensus is that pretty much every crisis can be prepared for in similar ways, up to a point of diminishing returns.

So Katrina is a good example where keeping an eye on the news, gas in the car, and even a BoB would have payed off (and likely did for some people). But, out of curiosity, what preparations would you make for becoming homeless? To me, it seems like a fat savings account and investments throwing off capitals gains and dividends are already the best preparation against homelessness and I'm working on both of those anyway.

[MoonShadow]

And we do have real examples of personal (homeless) and regional (Katrina) situations that a bit of preparation for bad times can improve; and the consensus is that pretty much every crisis can be prepared for in similar ways, up to a point of diminishing returns.

So Katrina is a good example where keeping an eye on the news, gas in the car, and even a BoB would have payed off (and likely did for some people). But, out of curiosity, what preparations would you make for becoming homeless? To me, it seems like a fat savings account and investments throwing off capitals gains and dividends are already the best preparation against homelessness and I'm working on both of those anyway.

Yes, in almost every case, this is the best solution; and one that just about everyone on this forum is already working towards.  General wealth solves a great many problems, which is why we want so much of it.  However, it does not solve all issues.  As noted, a crisis can be regional or personal; and the regional disaster of Hurricane Katrina created a great many homeless in a very short order, many of which did have resources beyond the destruction, but they were trapped into the region by circumstances (for a period of time) anyway.  A comparable personal crisis, that isn't finance related, is increasingly rare in our modern world; but not completely non-existent.  One such example is; you have funds, but live in a 'rent controlled' area, and a fire causes significant damage to your apartment building, and you find yourself evicted immediately from your home.  At 2am.  On Saturday night, and Monday is a bank holiday.  Sure, your fat brokerage accounts will go a long way towards "fixing" your personal crisis once you can get access to them; but what about till then?  Did you leave your wallet on the nightstand when you evacuated?  Or were you at the club, blowing through your carry cash?  In this case, a bug-out-bag will do you no good if you didn't leave the apartment with it, but what in my list did I mention that wasn't already useful in your urban lifestyle?  What if you keep it in a locker at work?  Or a rented locker at the local bowling alley?  (That last one I actually did for about 3 years about a decade ago, except the firearm & bicycle)  Or keep a foot locker at your Mom's house?  Granted, it's difficult to keep an unused bicycle in a foot locker.  I mentioned this thread to a prepper friend of mine, and about the aversion to firearms (and probably any other item that the local law enforcement would consider a "deadly weapon") and he mentioned a "monkey's fist", which is basically a small river rock bound up into a rope, and itself has many other uses for the "unintentional urban camper", such as a counterweight to sling your B.O.B. over a tree limb to get it off the ground.  The magic about such a weapon is that you don't actually have to buy one, or even have one when the SHTF; but just know how to make one if the need arises; and it's fairly effective against one or several assailants who are themselves armed with less than a firearm.  Three guys with switchblades versus one able-bodied adult with a one pound monkey's fist and a 6 foot leash; advantage one over the three, so long as he is awake at the time.

EDIT: I've discovered this type of weapon is also called a "meteor hammer".

[mrpercentage]

In regards to guns, I own some  but will tell you they are a bad idea. I have had thoughts about selling them and buying some PG or JNJ with the money. I currently have them locked up because I think the odds of one of my kids killing the other by total accident is higher than me shooting a burglar. Guns can escalate a kick your ass scenario to lethal pretty fast.

This is statistically not true, but you really should sell them anyway.  It sounds like you never were the kind of person who should have owned any.  Even better, you could give them away to single, black women living in poor inner city neighborhoods; and you can significantly increase the odds that they will be used in an act of self-defense, if they are used at all.

Actually, I am law enforcement. Thanks.

[mrpercentage]

Maybe I should sell my personal Glock 19 with 3 15 round magazines, american standard 22 magnum derringer, butler derringer, and 38 special. Im only an expert in the Glock 19 and shotgun. I mean putting bear spray on a high shelf is more likely to kill my kids than any of those guns on my beds headboard bookshelf where I could actually use them.

[Cornbread OMalley]

My most ridiculous want is a Geiger counter. I think that sooner or later terrorists will do something radioactive. Either with radioactive waste or an actual device. If that came to pass, a Geiger counter could be the difference between life and death. But of course such is thing is extremely unlikely to happen at my exact location.

A Geiger counter is not ridiculous at all considering the threat of a dirty bomb against a major US city is actually very real.  Those here on the thread who scoffed at your idea really have no idea about the threats that are out there.

[mrpercentage]

You should buy a fogger of mace instead. The problem is the public is sold watered down versions instead. God forbid the public have a full powered non-lethal weapon. We should give them AR-15's instead. Bear spray can be lethal with allergic reaction or direct inhalation or small children. Guns are lethal. What jackass lobbied law makers to make non-lethal weapons not accessible to the public? I bet it was a gun company but it just may have been the NRA.

[MoonShadow]

In regards to guns, I own some  but will tell you they are a bad idea. I have had thoughts about selling them and buying some PG or JNJ with the money. I currently have them locked up because I think the odds of one of my kids killing the other by total accident is higher than me shooting a burglar. Guns can escalate a kick your ass scenario to lethal pretty fast.

This is statistically not true, but you really should sell them anyway.  It sounds like you never were the kind of person who should have owned any.  Even better, you could give them away to single, black women living in poor inner city neighborhoods; and you can significantly increase the odds that they will be used in an act of self-defense, if they are used at all.

Actually, I am law enforcement. Thanks.

Then you should consider another line of work.  An honest question, did you own any firearms before entering the police academy?

[MoonShadow]

You should buy a fogger of mace instead. The problem is the public is sold watered down versions instead. God forbid the public have a full powered non-lethal weapon. We should give them AR-15's instead. Bear spray can be lethal with allergic reaction or direct inhalation or small children. Guns are lethal. What jackass lobbied law makers to make non-lethal weapons not accessible to the public? I bet it was a gun company but it just may have been the NRA.

As a cop, you should already know that pepper spray isn't actually regulated at the federal level, but at the state level.  Looking at this map, I'd say it's rather unlikely that the NRA has much political influence in these states.  It's hard to find the strong stuff in the states where it's legal, mostly because many manufactures make their products to be sold across the nation; so as goes California, so goes the nation, so to speak.

http://www.peppereyes.com/page/peppersprayregs

And if you want to split hairs, the federal definition of "less-than-lethal" is that the weapon kills a random adult less than 2% of the time when used only once on the victim, iirc; so if it were not for the fact that a 22 short uses an explosive propellent to launch the projectile, it might be in the same regulatory class as an air rifle, since it's impact energy & tissue penetration is about comparable.; although you can still shoot your eye out.  Which, I'm sure that you are aware, since your taser is in this class of weapons.  They did teach you to refrain from tazing the same person more than once, right?

[mrpercentage]

Go buy a gun Moon Shadow. It is your right. There are alternatives if you are creative enough to think about not killing someone for offending you or being stupid enough to break into your house.

I know someone who witnessed their friend being killed by another accidentally. People have blown holes in their hand putting a gun in the glove box of their car. People have accidentally shot themselves cleaning their guns. I know of someone who killed themselves with a gun. You know what I have never personally known and heard of? Someone who killed someone with mace. That is unless its oil based and you taze them after. They can catch on fire.

I think its your right.... but generally speaking most are better off without them. Unless you like Sandy Hook and Collumbine. Oh wait werent those kids playing with a relatives weapons? hmmmm

[MoonShadow]

My most ridiculous want is a Geiger counter. I think that sooner or later terrorists will do something radioactive. Either with radioactive waste or an actual device. If that came to pass, a Geiger counter could be the difference between life and death. But of course such is thing is extremely unlikely to happen at my exact location.

A Geiger counter is not ridiculous at all considering the threat of a dirty bomb against a major US city is actually very real.  Those here on the thread who scoffed at your idea really have no idea about the threats that are out there.

I can't tell if this is mockery or seriousness.  But, if in question, it's probably mockery.

[MoonShadow]

Go buy a gun Moon Shadow. It is your right. There are alternatives if you are creative enough to think about not killing someone for offending you or being stupid enough to break into your house.

If you believe that I relish the idea, you are mistaken.  I do advocate for the option, however.  And I'd wager my teenagers have more practice time with their firearms than you have had with your professional weapons.  When was the last time you qualified?  I know that some cops enjoy practice shooting in their off hours, but the majority still have the same box of rounds they have had since they last qualified.

I know someone who witnessed their friend being killed by another accidentally. People have blown holes in their hand putting a gun in the glove box of their car. People have accidentally shot themselves cleaning their guns. I know of someone who killed themselves with a gun. You know what I have never personally known and heard of? Someone who killed someone with mace. That is unless its oil based and you taze them after. They can catch on fire.

Dude, you are a statistical anomaly.  Are you sure it's not you?

And yes, I know it's pretty remote that bear spray is going to actually kill anyone; but neither will 99.9% of firearms.  They are a tool for a particular job that is, hopefully, a rare job.  Do you know people who juggle chainsaws, too?

I think its your right.... but generally speaking most are better off without them. Unless you like Sandy Hook and Collumbine. Oh wait werent those kids playing with a relatives weapons? hmmmm

Those kids weren't playing, and by that very definition, they weren't kids either.  I'm sure that you know that the law wouldn't treat them as children after such actions, and neither would you if it was your fate to engage them.  Those deaths don't qualify as 'accidental shootings'.

[mrpercentage]

There is nothing to say to change your mind. I sincerely hope you never get a dose of Murphy's law. I am prior service. Of course I had a gun-- a Russian AK-47 that I sold during hard times.

And yes I have shot every weekend for over a year until I could watch the muzzle flash without even flinching-- and I got a perfect score, and I have killed fuzzy little mammals. What is your point? You like guns. I got it

I pitty the fool who does break into my house. Im a two hundred pound trained boxer thats taken some Gracie and I will mace them first. Maybe I should dig around for the 911 call of the guy who shot his wife because he thought she was a burglar at 2am

I used to be an NRA member. I got a dose of reality. People can change their minds you know. I will tell you what though. Im done here. Try some mace. Its the Vanguard of self protection. It might keep you out of jail if you need to use it. It may save your wife at 2am. It may stop a Sandy Hook

[FIRE me]

My most ridiculous want is a Geiger counter.

Yes, that is ridiculous. You want a spinthariscope.  They are cheaper, smaller, they often indicate directionality, and are non-electronic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spinthariscope

A toy that detects Alpha particles only.

[MoonShadow]

My most ridiculous want is a Geiger counter.

Yes, that is ridiculous. You want a spinthariscope.  They are cheaper, smaller, they often indicate directionality, and are non-electronic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spinthariscope

A toy that detects Alpha particles only.

They are not all toys, and they detect any ionizing radiation; alpha, beta, gamma; that reach the scope's gas chamber.  A similar technique is used in a Geiger counter anyway, but with added electronics to be able to quantifiablely measure, and usually record, those ionizing radiation particles.  It's not going to be a better detection device than a Geiger counter; but it's cheap, light & easy to use effectively without training.  Personally, I wouldn't bother with either; but if I were preparing to wander a post-nuclear hellscape, the spinthariscope doesn't have batteries to replace, and I pretty sure anyone who uses one on a regular basis can learn how to use one as effectively as a Geiger counter to the end of self-preservation.

[FIRE me]

I disagree. Unlike some people, I don't argue endlessly with strangers on the internet, so this is my last word to you in this thread.

[meg_shannon]

If you're all worried about a dirty bomb, you would be better off researching the training your local hospital engages in. Most health care professionals don't recognize radiation burns, even in areas where they may be more common. Possibly seek out some training your self and keep iodine tablets on hand to help minimize damage. My husband works a nuclear facility, in a much more residential area than when the facility was built (unfortunately), and they have to keep tabs on the local hospital and make sure they keep up their training (in addition to the facility having their own EMS/fire service).

I think this scenario is highly "unlikely unlikely," but many of you seem concerned with those.

[FIRE me]

If you're all worried about a dirty bomb, you would be better off researching the training your local hospital engages in. Most health care professionals don't recognize radiation burns, even in areas where they may be more common. Possibly seek out some training your self and keep iodine tablets on hand to help minimize damage. My husband works a nuclear facility, in a much more residential area than when the facility was built (unfortunately), and they have to keep tabs on the local hospital and make sure they keep up their training (in addition to the facility having their own EMS/fire service).

I think this scenario is highly "unlikely unlikely," but many of you seem concerned with those.

You have good advice.

Iodine tabs and personal dosimeters are things I have considered.

But I don't live in New York, Los Angles, Chicago or DC. Which would be the most likely targets of a radiation producing terrorist event.

Also, as far as I know, no terrorist anywhere has ever killed or injured anyone using any radioactive substance.

Russia has killed people using Polonium (Alexander Litvinenko, Georgi Markov, and probably others) but those were targeted assassinations that I don't think that could be counted as terrorist activity.

A few years back, consumer grade Geiger counters were in short supply due to Fukushima. That event is winding down now, at least as far as the need for the Japanese person on the street to have a need for a Geiger counter. Even low end models were several hundred dollars on Amazon.

Last month, I got a price watch alert that the Radex RD1503+ was $110. It was the price I had been waiting for, but I passed on buying it.

So while I have seriously considered it, I agree with the general consensus that it is too unlikely to occur to spend money on it.

[GuitarStv]

Yeah, potassium iodine tablets would be far be more useful than a Geiger counter.  The counter just tells you that you're fucked (something that will probably become common knowledge in short order anyway), the tablets have a chance of saving your life.  I live within 20 km of a nuclear reactor, so the government has sent me KI tablets in case of a radiation leak.

[Tom Bri]

How unlikely are we talking about though? Where I live, winter ice storms which knock out power for a day or longer occur every few years, and tornadoes hit two towns within a few miles of me in 2015. One small town was basically annihilated, though there were no deaths. All but a handful of homes had to be completely replaced. There is an unknown likelihood of a major earthquake. The last one was in the early 1800s and it was a big one, killed lots of people, so could easily happen again. I live within sight of a large nuclear power plant.
Add all these together, and I get quite a bit higher odds of something big and bad happening. So, some level of prepping seems rational to me.
People of my generation grew up expecting the Russkies to bomb any minute. That colors our outlook, and some of the holdover is irrational. Since then, however, a handful of other countries have joined the nuclear club, and are noisily working on developing long-range delivery systems. EMP bursts are trivially easy if you can get a nuke into orbit. Am I worried about this right now, right this minute? No. But I expect to be in another decade. Getting dumped back to 1900's technological levels wouldn't be fun.
My upshot is, a certain level of prepping makes sense, but what that level is is impossible to quantify, since the risks are too varied. I try to cover the basics, food, warmth, water.

[Goldielocks]

Anyone have similar strategies for risk management?

Yep!

I live in Canada, and am on friendly terms with my neighbours.




Why I think prepping is silly:
- We buy lots of stuff in bulk because it's cheaper, so usually have a reasonable amount of food in the basement.
- We have three toilets in the house which store a reasonable amount of fresh drinking water at all times, and are within walking distance of a couple rivers and a lake.
- We have a BBQ with propane tank in our back yard.
- We have camping gear, sleeping bags/blankets/camp stoves/flashlights/etc.
- We have cycling gear and tough, well maintained bikes.
- I'm a 200 lb, 6 ft tall guy who was a decent boxer and spent many years wrestling.  Pretty confident that anything I couldn't keep at bay with a crowbar or axe from the garage would kill me regardless of weapons I had at hand.

That covers most disasters I can think of.  What else exactly is there to prep for?

When buying a home, we chose a place that could fit a large vegetable garden, if needed. OR, had rooms / space to rent out.
When Remodeling, I made certain to have the wood burning stove "grandfathered", so that we would never be without heat in the central area for a couple of weeks, always have energy choices.
Water is only an issue for summer months, and I live near a river..

hmm.. keeping the car gas tank at least 1/2 full.   And actively deciding if the downtown work location is worth it, as an earthquake or other event could close down all the bridges.

[MoonShadow]

. Am I worried about this right now, right this minute? No. But I expect to be in another decade. Getting dumped back to 1900's technological levels wouldn't be fun.

There is a naturally occurring event with a similar effect to a manmade EMP, a Carrington Event...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859

Canada, and several other "Western" nations, have been quietly replacing key items in their electrical grid, in order to limit damage in the event of a Carrington class solar storm striking the Earth.  The United States, notably, has not taken these steps, at least not on any official or national scale.  Although such an event, or even an EMP, wouldn't present much direct risk to human life; significant damage to the electrical grid, the Internet, personal electronics & many computers would occur.  Entire regions would likely be cut off from the power grid due to failure of high-voltage transmission transformers; and depending upon how many are actually destroyed, the repair time can be from weeks to months.  These are  not the kind of transformers that many are kept in storage, due to their significant cost and size.  Communications would be limited, unless you are already a ham, or know one.  Contrary to common belief, however; very few cars still on the roads today are at any significant risk; because their electronics are quite well shielded anyway (the ignition system requires it) and the ignition systems used today are no longer the type that was under significant risk.  However, lead acid batteries can suffer damage in a Carrington class event; so imagine if only 2% of people caught in the grid down zone can't start their cars anymore.  It won't take long to figure out that they can still drive away after getting a jump,  but it would take weeks just to get enough batteries built to replace the damaged ones.  In the meantime, 2% of drivers can't shut their cars off without needing another jump; and most of the gas stations in the grid down zone can't pump gasoline, and the few that can run dry in very short order.  Would you stay in the grid down zone under these conditions?  Could you?  I would expect that the worst affected areas would resemble New Orleans following Katrina in about 2 weeks, less the water damage.  At least during a snowstorm, most people still have power (so the repair crews can focus on those communities that do not) and most people still have the option of driving to Waffle House.