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Voting closed: March 07, 2016, 01:37:11 PM

Author Topic: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread  (Read 87783 times)

MoonShadow

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Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« on: January 15, 2016, 03:14:18 PM »
This is a debate thread, called to order between myself & Jack.  The topic of this debate shall be, roughly, "Is global climate change a crisis?" or some such.

scottish

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #1 on: January 15, 2016, 05:37:01 PM »
so.. you and Jack are going to debate the merits of the climate change situation?

MoonShadow

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #2 on: January 15, 2016, 07:30:29 PM »
so.. you and Jack are going to debate the merits of the climate change situation?

I assume so.  Jack stated in another thread that he wished to debate me, but I haven't heard from him yet concerning what I've said that he objects to.  I presume that he will get around to it eventually.

scottish

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #3 on: January 15, 2016, 07:46:33 PM »
What is your position on climate change?    I'm sure there are lots of people who would debate it!

MoonShadow

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #4 on: January 15, 2016, 09:53:18 PM »
My position is that, whatever the mechanism that drives it, there is little evidence to support the idea that even a 4 degree C average global rise in climate is necessarily catastrophic; and even if it would be eventually, the centuries long period of time until such a catastrophe were to arrive gives humanity plenty of time to address that problem later, as we have many more pressing problems in the near term.  I'm not even convinced that a 2-4 degree rise in climate wouldn't be a net boon for humanity, assuming that we take (slow) steps to take advantage of it.  Because that average rise is not going to be distributed evenly (more like 10 degrees near the poles, and a half degree in the current tropics) currently warm places will not actually change much, excepting potential changes in rainfall as dominate wind patterns shift.  Currently very cold land masses will likely experience significant warming, but that improves the habitat for human needs in those areas; such as the Canadian Northern Territories & Russian Siberia, both areas having a huge potential gain in agricultural output as a result.  Currently dry & tropic regions, such as Mexico, Southwestern US, Northern Africa & parts of the "Middle East", the Australian outback, and portions of Western China are unlikely to become less hospitable to human habitation than they already are, and stand a good chance that their average rainfall would improve, potentially improving their agricultural usefulness.  Other regions that typically experience higher than average amounts of rainfall; such as Brazil, The Eastern US, The Democratic Republic of Congo, and Western Europe; run the risk of losing rainfall to shifting wind patterns as well, however. Additionally, I have to point out that the potential gains in useable landmass in Canada & Russia alone overwhelm the potential loss of coastal landmass, at least at the reported 100 year sea level rise of 4 meters.

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #5 on: January 15, 2016, 10:09:31 PM »
It does not matter to me whether it is or isn't a crisis. I don't care whether it's getting warmer or colder or just crazier. I don't dwell upon whose fault it is. I live as lightly as I can upon the earth because I think it's the right thing to do.

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #6 on: January 15, 2016, 10:11:45 PM »
It does not matter to me whether it is or isn't a crisis. I don't care whether it's getting warmer or colder or just crazier. I don't dwell upon whose fault it is. I live as lightly as I can upon the earth because I think it's the right thing to do.

I have no objection to that either.

Sailor Sam

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #7 on: January 16, 2016, 01:38:34 AM »
Haven't we done this before?

music lover

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #8 on: January 16, 2016, 09:22:39 AM »
It does not matter to me whether it is or isn't a crisis. I don't care whether it's getting warmer or colder or just crazier. I don't dwell upon whose fault it is. I live as lightly as I can upon the earth because I think it's the right thing to do.

I've been forced to care because my pocket is being picked by those in power who claim they are fixing a problem that hasn't even been proven to be a problem.

the_gastropod

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #9 on: January 16, 2016, 09:27:19 AM »
It does not matter to me whether it is or isn't a crisis. I don't care whether it's getting warmer or colder or just crazier. I don't dwell upon whose fault it is. I live as lightly as I can upon the earth because I think it's the right thing to do.

I've been forced to care because my pocket is being picked by those in power who claim they are fixing a problem that hasn't even been proven to be a problem.

Through what means are these people in power "picking your pocket"?

Scandium

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #10 on: January 16, 2016, 11:27:56 AM »
My position is that, whatever the mechanism that drives it, there is little evidence to support the idea that even a 4 degree C average global rise in climate is necessarily catastrophic; and even if it would be eventually, the centuries long period of time until such a catastrophe were to arrive gives humanity plenty of time to address that problem later, as we have many more pressing problems in the near term.  I'm not even convinced that a 2-4 degree rise in climate wouldn't be a net boon for humanity, assuming that we take (slow) steps to take advantage of it.  Because that average rise is not going to be distributed evenly (more like 10 degrees near the poles, and a half degree in the current tropics) currently warm places will not actually change much, excepting potential changes in rainfall as dominate wind patterns shift.  Currently very cold land masses will likely experience significant warming, but that improves the habitat for human needs in those areas; such as the Canadian Northern Territories & Russian Siberia, both areas having a huge potential gain in agricultural output as a result.  Currently dry & tropic regions, such as Mexico, Southwestern US, Northern Africa & parts of the "Middle East", the Australian outback, and portions of Western China are unlikely to become less hospitable to human habitation than they already are, and stand a good chance that their average rainfall would improve, potentially improving their agricultural usefulness.  Other regions that typically experience higher than average amounts of rainfall; such as Brazil, The Eastern US, The Democratic Republic of Congo, and Western Europe; run the risk of losing rainfall to shifting wind patterns as well, however. Additionally, I have to point out that the potential gains in useable landmass in Canada & Russia alone overwhelm the potential loss of coastal landmass, at least at the reported 100 year sea level rise of 4 meters.
Eh, it's been a while since I read it, but aren't all these points addressed by the UNITED IPCC report?

I'd also like to know how dumping all the Arctic ice into the oceans is good for Manhattan, London etc..?

music lover

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #11 on: January 16, 2016, 11:28:27 AM »
It does not matter to me whether it is or isn't a crisis. I don't care whether it's getting warmer or colder or just crazier. I don't dwell upon whose fault it is. I live as lightly as I can upon the earth because I think it's the right thing to do.

I've been forced to care because my pocket is being picked by those in power who claim they are fixing a problem that hasn't even been proven to be a problem.

Through what means are these people in power "picking your pocket"?

Billions are being spent to combat "climate change"? That money comes from tax dollars, not voluntary donations or the free market...

music lover

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #12 on: January 16, 2016, 11:32:37 AM »
I'd also like to know how dumping all the Arctic ice into the oceans is good for Manhattan, London etc..?

Don't worry...nothing bad will happen. 100% of the Arctic ice could melt instantly and it would have no effect at all on ocean levels because none of the ice is on land. It's no different than an ice cube melting in a glass....the level doesn't change.

Scandium

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #13 on: January 16, 2016, 11:33:58 AM »
I'd also like to know how dumping all the Arctic ice into the oceans is good for Manhattan, London etc..?

Don't worry...nothing bad will happen. 100% of the Arctic ice could melt instantly and it would have no effect at all on ocean levels because none of the ice is on land. It's no different than an ice cube melting in a glass....the level doesn't change.
Greenland? Antarctica?

Scandium

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #14 on: January 16, 2016, 11:34:26 AM »
It does not matter to me whether it is or isn't a crisis. I don't care whether it's getting warmer or colder or just crazier. I don't dwell upon whose fault it is. I live as lightly as I can upon the earth because I think it's the right thing to do.

I've been forced to care because my pocket is being picked by those in power who claim they are fixing a problem that hasn't even been proven to be a problem.

Through what means are these people in power "picking your pocket"?

Billions are being spent to combat "climate change"? That money comes from tax dollars, not voluntary donations or the free market...
Example?

music lover

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #15 on: January 16, 2016, 11:52:42 AM »
It does not matter to me whether it is or isn't a crisis. I don't care whether it's getting warmer or colder or just crazier. I don't dwell upon whose fault it is. I live as lightly as I can upon the earth because I think it's the right thing to do.

I've been forced to care because my pocket is being picked by those in power who claim they are fixing a problem that hasn't even been proven to be a problem.

Through what means are these people in power "picking your pocket"?

Billions are being spent to combat "climate change"? That money comes from tax dollars, not voluntary donations or the free market...
Example?

No. If you're really unaware that tax dollars are spent on climate change, it's a waste my time educating you.

Do yourself a favour and educate yourself.

gaja

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #16 on: January 16, 2016, 11:55:43 AM »
It does not matter to me whether it is or isn't a crisis. I don't care whether it's getting warmer or colder or just crazier. I don't dwell upon whose fault it is. I live as lightly as I can upon the earth because I think it's the right thing to do.

I've been forced to care because my pocket is being picked by those in power who claim they are fixing a problem that hasn't even been proven to be a problem.

Through what means are these people in power "picking your pocket"?

Billions are being spent to combat "climate change"? That money comes from tax dollars, not voluntary donations or the free market...

"Are being spent" sounds like someone is throwing money down the drain. In reality that money does a lot of good whether you "believe" in climate change or not:
-"Climate research funds" are funding research that can be useful in the field of meterology, geology, glaciology, mathematics, modelling, etc. Even psykology and game theory has reach new knowledge through climate related research. Even oil companies are benefiting from geologists and paleontologists doing climate research.
-We see a lot of new technology being developed and implemented. Examples of this is the improved battery and electric engine technology that is being used in electric cars and boats. This vehicles are getting more and more energy efficient, something that over time is very good for my wallet, and insures that we can get more done with less energy. Based on energy life cycle analyses, you can drive four electric cars with the energy it takes to power one petrol car. Why should we keep wasting energy?
-Transport companies are forced to use new technology, that after a few years turn out to be more cost effective and safer for us all. One example is LNG motors in boats. Cargo ships are both major pollutors, and a danger to wildlife in case of accidents (heavy oil + birds = death). By using LNG or LBG, the engines are cleaner and more efficient, there is less local pollution (black smoke), and a ship wreck full of LNG will not cause damage to the local bird life.
-The global trade in fossil fuels has shifted the power balance, giving a lot of power to countries we don't like having to kiss the asses of. Renewable energy, like solar, wind, hydro, etc, is usually produced locally.
-The production of biogas often is subsidised, because of climate change. What biogas production really does, much more than reduce climate gas emissions, is to solve garbage problems, and reintroduce important nutrients into the cycle. Food waste is a big problem, but it is even larger if you just throw it on a landfill to rot. Than you have to buy chemical fertilizer to get the nutrients back to the land. When you produce biogas, the most important part of the output is the solid and liquid nutrient rich and clean "waste" that can be used as fertilizer. You can even make pellets of it and use it instead of chemical fertilizers. We are probably going to run out of phosphorous in a few years, if we don't start reusing the phosphorous that goes into the landfills, rivers and sea.

etc.

music lover

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #17 on: January 16, 2016, 11:58:54 AM »
I'd also like to know how dumping all the Arctic ice into the oceans is good for Manhattan, London etc..?

Don't worry...nothing bad will happen. 100% of the Arctic ice could melt instantly and it would have no effect at all on ocean levels because none of the ice is on land. It's no different than an ice cube melting in a glass....the level doesn't change.
Greenland? Antarctica?

There's nothing to worry about

From NASA:

Antarctic Sea Ice Reaches New Record Maximum

https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/antarctic-sea-ice-reaches-new-record-maximum

Greenland ice increasing:

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/greenlands-ice-sheet-winter-growth-above-average.html

JZinCO

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #18 on: January 16, 2016, 12:01:46 PM »

No. If you're really unaware that tax dollars are spent on climate change, it's a waste my time educating you.

Do yourself a favour and educate yourself.
Oh snap! How Not even a page in and insults are being hurtled!

Yeah Scandium, stop waste his time educating you and use you time to learn yourself!


gaja

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #19 on: January 16, 2016, 12:08:39 PM »
I'd also like to know how dumping all the Arctic ice into the oceans is good for Manhattan, London etc..?

Don't worry...nothing bad will happen. 100% of the Arctic ice could melt instantly and it would have no effect at all on ocean levels because none of the ice is on land. It's no different than an ice cube melting in a glass....the level doesn't change.
Greenland? Antarctica?
When the ice in a glass of water melts, the water level does change. It gets slightly lower. So if you want to look at the arctic ice exclusively, then that wouldn't change things to much. The problem is that Scandium is correct. The ice sheets and glaciers on Greenland, Antarctica, Iceland, Svalbard, Norway, Canada, Kilimanjaro, etc, would add water to the sea. Some of the water will remain in large lakes, but if the ice in the Arctic melts, it would be completely illogical that the other ice sheets would remain intact. There is no debate; we would see an increase in the sea level. Sure: we can move. My family has a cabin in the mountains, we would be fine. Until all the refugees from Holland and Denmark come flooding in. We threw the Danish out in 1814, the Dutch got kicked out in the 17th and 18th century. There is no way we are taking those buggers back.

I'm a paleontologist. I know the climate has changed before, it will change again. I know we have seen times of both colder and warmer climate before. At one time, the sea level was 200 meters higher than today. And Homo sapiens are good at adapting. But again; the Dutch and Danish are nice people as long as they stay at home. They can come her to visit, but not to stay. They would want cheap beer; we don't do that here. Also, there would be even more supporters of Bokmål as a written language. That is not acceptable to us Nynorsk users. It doesn't take many meters of sea level change before a lot of their major cities are gone and they have to move.

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #20 on: January 16, 2016, 12:15:34 PM »
I'd also like to know how dumping all the Arctic ice into the oceans is good for Manhattan, London etc..?

Don't worry...nothing bad will happen. 100% of the Arctic ice could melt instantly and it would have no effect at all on ocean levels because none of the ice is on land. It's no different than an ice cube melting in a glass....the level doesn't change.

If the arctic sea ice pack is considered a single ice cube, then this analysis is correct and basic isostasy. For land-ice such as Greenland (which is largely within the Arctic Circle), this is not correct. A problem with loss of arctic ice pack is the feebacks that it generates. Open ocean has a significantly different albedo than ice/snow. Less arctic ice leads to absorption of more solar energy changing the energy budget for energy radiated back to space. The warming of arctic water more has the potential to alter thermohaline circulation (in say 100 years, so potentially very important but not a house on fire), and northern hemisphere weather patterns. The warming of the arctic waters can indirectly exacerbate land ice loss as well. People here will probably care most about the changes in winters in Minnesota, though it can also change monsoon seasons in SE Asia (by changing distribution of high pressure over northern Asia).

For example:
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/future/bib/Vihma_accepted_in_Surv_Geophys.pdf

Scandium

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #21 on: January 16, 2016, 12:20:24 PM »
I'd also like to know how dumping all the Arctic ice into the oceans is good for Manhattan, London etc..?

Don't worry...nothing bad will happen. 100% of the Arctic ice could melt instantly and it would have no effect at all on ocean levels because none of the ice is on land. It's no different than an ice cube melting in a glass....the level doesn't change.
Greenland? Antarctica?

There's nothing to worry about

From NASA:

Antarctic Sea Ice Reaches New Record Maximum

https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/antarctic-sea-ice-reaches-new-record-maximum

Greenland ice increasing:

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/greenlands-ice-sheet-winter-growth-above-average.html
My first post was to someone that said a future 10C increase wouldn't be a problem. I don't see how data showing increasing ice right now refute this..?

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #22 on: January 16, 2016, 12:27:00 PM »
I'd also like to know how dumping all the Arctic ice into the oceans is good for Manhattan, London etc..?

Don't worry...nothing bad will happen. 100% of the Arctic ice could melt instantly and it would have no effect at all on ocean levels because none of the ice is on land. It's no different than an ice cube melting in a glass....the level doesn't change.
Greenland? Antarctica?

There's nothing to worry about

From NASA:

Antarctic Sea Ice Reaches New Record Maximum

https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/antarctic-sea-ice-reaches-new-record-maximum

Greenland ice increasing:

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/greenlands-ice-sheet-winter-growth-above-average.html

From your link:
Quote
The upward trend in the Antarctic, however, is only about a third of the magnitude of the rapid loss of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean.

gaja

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #23 on: January 16, 2016, 12:40:07 PM »
Glacial surging is also a thing that can throw the data. Most of the arctic glaciers are frozen to the ground, and movement is slow. That way the front might move backwards even if the ice mass is accumulating. When the heat increases, or the mass gets to big, the sole will get loose and you will get a surge. During the surge, the front of the glacier can move several meters in one day. If you don't observe the surge, it will look like the glacier has grown steadily.

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #24 on: January 16, 2016, 01:01:18 PM »
Greenland ice increasing:

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/greenlands-ice-sheet-winter-growth-above-average.html

??? Did the authors forget to check their sources?

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2012-217

"Satellites see Unprecedented Greenland Ice Sheet Melt"

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/

Quote from: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/
Minimum ice extent in September was the 4th lowest on record. Sea ice continues to be younger and thinner: in February and March 2015 there was twice as much first-year ice as there was 30 years ago.

Quote
Melting occurred over more than 50% of the Greenland Ice Sheet for the first time since the exceptional melting of 2012, and glaciers terminating in the ocean showed an increase in ice velocity and decrease in area.

I'd post links to peer reviewed articles but it wouldn't change anyone's mind.


Scandium

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #25 on: January 16, 2016, 01:13:09 PM »

No. If you're really unaware that tax dollars are spent on climate change, it's a waste my time educating you.

Do yourself a favour and educate yourself.
Oh snap! How Not even a page in and insults are being hurtled!

Yeah Scandium, stop waste his time educating you and use you time to learn yourself!
Yeah, one fine debate we have here. Cicero would be impressed!
« Last Edit: January 16, 2016, 01:53:22 PM by Scandium »

MoonShadow

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #26 on: January 16, 2016, 04:52:50 PM »
Haven't we done this before?

Sort of, and I know that this is a dangerous topic to approach again, but I'm willing to try if the posters can stay civil.  You know, like in an actual debate.

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #27 on: January 16, 2016, 05:01:48 PM »

I'm a paleontologist. I know the climate has changed before, it will change again. I know we have seen times of both colder and warmer climate before. At one time, the sea level was 200 meters higher than today. And Homo sapiens are good at adapting. But again; the Dutch and Danish are nice people as long as they stay at home. They can come her to visit, but not to stay. They would want cheap beer; we don't do that here. Also, there would be even more supporters of Bokmål as a written language. That is not acceptable to us Nynorsk users. It doesn't take many meters of sea level change before a lot of their major cities are gone and they have to move.

I have no intention of addressing cultural conflicts.  Even outright warfare might not be avoidable, either way.  Besides, Europe is a cultural basketcase anyway, and when the EU trade zone finally falls apart (and it will, because it was set up crappy) odds are good that generations old animosities will return to Europe, and then some morons (Spanish? Italians?) are going to get hostile with Germany for "war reparations" and wake the German war state.  Climate change might hasten that end, but it's going to happen anyway.  I find it amazing that you have managed to get along for almost a century at it is.

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #28 on: January 16, 2016, 05:22:25 PM »


Apologies, brainfart on my part re name. Suggestion post removed to reduce clutter.

MoonShadow

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #29 on: January 16, 2016, 07:27:25 PM »

Eh, it's been a while since I read it, but aren't all these points addressed by the UNITED IPCC report?

[/quote]

Addressed? Perhaps.  Resolved, no.
Quote

I'd also like to know how dumping all the Arctic ice into the oceans is good for Manhattan, London etc..?

Considering that these coastal cities have plenty of time, and quite a bit of capital to get it done, they could manage fine with the right re-engineering of infrastructure.  London could effectively move father uphill from the Thames, or something else.  That said, these are cities, not people; so we could (as a society) choose to adapt them, or simply abandon them.  They are where they are due to their proximity to intersections of bodies of water & land; if that intersection had been farther upstream a couple of hundred years ago, so would have London.  NYC is a bit different, but the concept remains.  Humans build cities where convenient.  If they are no long convenient, we will build them elsewhere.

Scandium

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #30 on: January 16, 2016, 08:12:01 PM »

Eh, it's been a while since I read it, but aren't all these points addressed by the UNITED IPCC report?


Addressed? Perhaps.  Resolved, no.
Quote

I'd also like to know how dumping all the Arctic ice into the oceans is good for Manhattan, London etc..?

Considering that these coastal cities have plenty of time, and quite a bit of capital to get it done, they could manage fine with the right re-engineering of infrastructure.  London could effectively move father uphill from the Thames, or something else.  That said, these are cities, not people; so we could (as a society) choose to adapt them, or simply abandon them.  They are where they are due to their proximity to intersections of bodies of water & land; if that intersection had been farther upstream a couple of hundred years ago, so would have London.  NYC is a bit different, but the concept remains.  Humans build cities where convenient.  If they are no long convenient, we will build them elsewhere.
[/quote]
Ok. So it's too costly to research renewable energy sources and make cars more efficient now, so we'll instead wait, let shit happen, and move all costal cities (1 billion people? More?) in the future. Great plan.

So you just disagree with what to do about it?
« Last Edit: January 16, 2016, 08:44:38 PM by Scandium »

music lover

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #31 on: January 17, 2016, 08:09:09 AM »
Quote
Ok. So it's too costly to research renewable energy sources and make cars more efficient now, so we'll instead wait, let shit happen, and move all costal cities (1 billion people? More?) in the future. Great plan.

What's your plan?? Let inept governments all over the world "solve" this? Their track record really isn't that good, is it?

Depending on the source, the ocean is rising at a blistering 1 - 3 millimeters a year. 25 millimeters is an inch, so worst case translates to 1 inch every 8 years, best case 1 inch every 25 years which is 4 inches over the next hundred years. There are also many coastal cities dozens of feet above the ocean, so they will not be affected for thousands of years. There is no reason to panic.

However, anyone who has concerns about the future of coastal property can move right now. Don't worry, there will be plenty of buyers for those who choose to sell their ocean front property today. In fact, ocean properties still command a premium over non-coastal properties.

As to alternative energy, those who wish to see more of it are more than welcome to invest in alternative energy companies.

Scandium

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #32 on: January 17, 2016, 05:08:18 PM »
Quote
Ok. So it's too costly to research renewable energy sources and make cars more efficient now, so we'll instead wait, let shit happen, and move all costal cities (1 billion people? More?) in the future. Great plan.

What's your plan?? Let inept governments all over the world "solve" this? Their track record really isn't that good, is it?

Depending on the source, the ocean is rising at a blistering 1 - 3 millimeters a year. 25 millimeters is an inch, so worst case translates to 1 inch every 8 years, best case 1 inch every 25 years which is 4 inches over the next hundred years. There are also many coastal cities dozens of feet above the ocean, so they will not be affected for thousands of years. There is no reason to panic.

However, anyone who has concerns about the future of coastal property can move right now. Don't worry, there will be plenty of buyers for those who choose to sell their ocean front property today. In fact, ocean properties still command a premium over non-coastal properties.

As to alternative energy, those who wish to see more of it are more than welcome to invest in alternative energy companies.
Yeah, inept government only went to the moon, invented the Internet, built much of the world's infrastructure, gave us sanitation and reliable clean drinking water.

What did the Romans ever do for us..

music lover

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #33 on: January 17, 2016, 05:41:07 PM »
Yeah, inept government only went to the moon, invented the Internet, built much of the world's infrastructure, gave us sanitation and reliable clean drinking water.

What did the Romans ever do for us..

So what? All of those things are far easier to do than changing the weather.

GuitarStv

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #34 on: January 18, 2016, 06:41:46 AM »
The reason we're having this conversation is that it's so easy to change the weather.

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #35 on: January 18, 2016, 07:59:17 AM »
The reason we're having this conversation is that it's so easy to change the weather.

Well said. :)

the_gastropod

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #36 on: January 18, 2016, 08:21:31 AM »
Yeah, inept government only went to the moon, invented the Internet, built much of the world's infrastructure, gave us sanitation and reliable clean drinking water.

What did the Romans ever do for us..

So what? All of those things are far easier to do than changing the weather.

Not really. Fixing the problem is simple—we know exactly how to do it. Creating an ecosystem whereby the population at large makes the right decisions is more difficult. Luckily, this is the type of problem that governments have been successfully tackling for thousands of years. Governments have disincentivized smoking, driving without a seatbelt, and speeding via various means (e.g., taxes, education, and fines) quite successfully. These restrictions have been beneficial for humanity at large. I have a high degree of confidence that governments across the world can successfully disincentivize activities known to be harmful to the environment enough to, as you so eloquently put it, "change the weather".

acroy

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #37 on: January 18, 2016, 09:29:02 AM »
Heard a great commentator on NPR

Main take-away is that in general:
 - Warmer is better; the planet will sustain more life, more ecology. Earth’s inhabitants have had the toughest time during cold periods. IIRC, total number of humans got down to like 2,000 during some ice age.

 - CO2 is good. It is plant food.

The only danger is CHANGE. Rapid change/disruption can cause local disasters (though global warming = more disasters has not been proven). Climate change impact on humanity is regressive (as are most things); rich folks will be ok, poor folks will be hurt. This is always the case with change.

Thus a big part of the Paris debate was how much the rich countries will pay to support poor countries.

Interesting times. History will judge.

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #38 on: January 18, 2016, 10:47:27 AM »
Heard a great commentator on NPR

Main take-away is that in general:
 - Warmer is better; the planet will sustain more life, more ecology. Earth’s inhabitants have had the toughest time during cold periods. IIRC, total number of humans got down to like 2,000 during some ice age.

Warmer temps also breeds more diseases and insects. Why does the southern US want a cold snap? It slows down termite growth. Same with the pine beetle, which decimates pine forests rapidly, making construction wood more expensive.

Quote
The only danger is CHANGE. Rapid change/disruption can cause local disasters (though global warming = more disasters has not been proven). Climate change impact on humanity is regressive (as are most things); rich folks will be ok, poor folks will be hurt. This is always the case with change.

Yep. It's all well and good to talk about more fertile land in Canada (and less in Mexico?) but some of the change could be violent.

The Maldives is a good example of change that is occurring today. Their first president, Naheed, is committing tourist dollars for a new homeland. In this case, they have the money; many of the world's residents do not.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2008/nov/10/maldives-climate-change


Kris

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #39 on: January 18, 2016, 10:56:10 AM »
Heard a great commentator on NPR

Main take-away is that in general:
 - Warmer is better; the planet will sustain more life, more ecology. Earth’s inhabitants have had the toughest time during cold periods. IIRC, total number of humans got down to like 2,000 during some ice age.

Warmer temps also breeds more diseases and insects. Why does the southern US want a cold snap? It slows down termite growth. Same with the pine beetle, which decimates pine forests rapidly, making construction wood more expensive.

Quote
The only danger is CHANGE. Rapid change/disruption can cause local disasters (though global warming = more disasters has not been proven). Climate change impact on humanity is regressive (as are most things); rich folks will be ok, poor folks will be hurt. This is always the case with change.

Yep. It's all well and good to talk about more fertile land in Canada (and less in Mexico?) but some of the change could be violent.

The Maldives is a good example of change that is occurring today. Their first president, Naheed, is committing tourist dollars for a new homeland. In this case, they have the money; many of the world's residents do not.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2008/nov/10/maldives-climate-change

This. I'm guessing there aren't a lot of complacent, "warmer is always better" types in Maldives.

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #40 on: January 18, 2016, 04:35:19 PM »
13 degrees F. Sure could use some global warming right now.

music lover

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #41 on: January 18, 2016, 04:49:27 PM »
The Maldives is a good example of change that is occurring today. Their first president, Naheed, is committing tourist dollars for a new homeland. In this case, they have the money; many of the world's residents do not.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2008/nov/10/maldives-climate-change

Except for the inconvenient fact that they are not sinking. Methinks it's just about how much guilt money they can get:

"Geographer Associate Professor Paul Kench has measured 27 islands where local sea levels have risen 120mm – an average of 2mm a year – over the past 60 years, and found that just four had diminished in size.

Working with Arthur Webb at the Fiji-based South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission, Kench used historical aerial photographs and high-resolution satellite images to study changes in the land area of the islands.

They found that the remaining 23 had either stayed the same or grown bigger, according to the research published in a scientific journal, Global and Planetary Change."

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/06/02/tuvalu-and-many-other-south-pacific-islands-are-not-sinking-claims-they-are-due-to-global-warming-driven-sea-level-rise-are-opportunistic/

Follow the money:

"The accord promised $30bn (£19bn) in aid for the poorest nations hit by global warming they had not caused. Within two weeks of Copenhagen, the Maldives foreign minister, Ahmed Shaheed, wrote to the US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, expressing eagerness to back it."

Maldives GDP (PPP) 2010 estimate
 – Total $2.734 billion[7]
 – Per capita $8,541[7]"

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/15/message-to-maldives-president-your-claims-are-bs/

Kris

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #42 on: January 18, 2016, 04:53:01 PM »
13 degrees F. Sure could use some global warming right now.

Good God. How hard is this for an adult human to understand?!

http://youtu.be/YbAWny7FV3w

music lover

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #43 on: January 18, 2016, 06:28:58 PM »
13 degrees F. Sure could use some global warming right now.

Good God. How hard is this for an adult human to understand?!

http://youtu.be/YbAWny7FV3w

I can post youtube videos, too:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C35pasCr6KI

And another:

"Children should not be force fed propaganda masquerading as science":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ap6YfQx9I64

Glenstache

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #44 on: January 18, 2016, 07:53:33 PM »
The Maldives is a good example of change that is occurring today. Their first president, Naheed, is committing tourist dollars for a new homeland. In this case, they have the money; many of the world's residents do not.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2008/nov/10/maldives-climate-change

Except for the inconvenient fact that they are not sinking. Methinks it's just about how much guilt money they can get:

"Geographer Associate Professor Paul Kench has measured 27 islands where local sea levels have risen 120mm – an average of 2mm a year – over the past 60 years, and found that just four had diminished in size.

Working with Arthur Webb at the Fiji-based South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission, Kench used historical aerial photographs and high-resolution satellite images to study changes in the land area of the islands.

They found that the remaining 23 had either stayed the same or grown bigger, according to the research published in a scientific journal, Global and Planetary Change."

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/06/02/tuvalu-and-many-other-south-pacific-islands-are-not-sinking-claims-they-are-due-to-global-warming-driven-sea-level-rise-are-opportunistic/

Follow the money:

"The accord promised $30bn (£19bn) in aid for the poorest nations hit by global warming they had not caused. Within two weeks of Copenhagen, the Maldives foreign minister, Ahmed Shaheed, wrote to the US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, expressing eagerness to back it."

Maldives GDP (PPP) 2010 estimate
 – Total $2.734 billion[7]
 – Per capita $8,541[7]"

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/15/message-to-maldives-president-your-claims-are-bs/

Here's a formal comment on the Maldives source article:
http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Kench-Comment-New-Perspectives-Moerner-2005.pdf
Edit: there is an additional reply back from Moerner, but I was unable to find the text. It would be interesting to read.

In short, based on the available information it appears that they conducted sloppy science, or at least did not document their findings and source information well enough to have reasonable confidence in it.

Here's a follow up study that also looks at related issues in the area and refers to the earlier Moerner paper/study:
http://staff.acecrc.org.au/~johunter/Church_et_al_2006_published.pdf

There is a lingering question of how quickly corals can grow, if they can maintain the reef-lagoons around the islands, and if that growth is sustainable in the face of declining coral health and ocean acidification.
« Last Edit: January 18, 2016, 07:57:40 PM by Glenstache »

Kris

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #45 on: January 18, 2016, 08:19:22 PM »
13 degrees F. Sure could use some global warming right now.

Good God. How hard is this for an adult human to understand?!

http://youtu.be/YbAWny7FV3w

I can post youtube videos, too:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C35pasCr6KI

And another:

"Children should not be force fed propaganda masquerading as science":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ap6YfQx9I64



Oh, for God's sake, Music Lover.

Your inability to engage with the actual merits of arguments is frankly mind boggling. 

Not to mention, I was not speaking to you.

Ugh.


bacchi

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #46 on: January 18, 2016, 11:20:35 PM »
Morner is a loon. Besides believing he can find water using a stick (aka, dowsing), he misrepresents data and believes in an international, worldwide, conspiracy by scientists; he's the only one left standing for truth.

One of his pieces of evidence is a graph of rising sea levels collected by satellites...that he rotated to make the line appear flat. No joke. (Page 33, scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/co2_jan_2011.pdf)

He's less legit than a Wiccan talking about the healing powers of the solstice moon.

Quote from: glenstache
There is a lingering question of how quickly corals can grow, if they can maintain the reef-lagoons around the islands, and if that growth is sustainable in the face of declining coral health and ocean acidification.

And some luck. Tuvalu gained land mass from a hurricane 40 years ago.

It is interesting that, like the Oregon standoff, it's always about money to the deniers. It supports the theory about increasing globalization and a spreading out of wealth, leading to a declining standard of living for those of us in the "west," causing (some) people to look for someone to blame. In this case, it's the government (UN?), who has convinced/paid off the vast majority of scientists in the world to fabricate evidence in the support of global warming.
« Last Edit: January 18, 2016, 11:25:38 PM by bacchi »

sol

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #47 on: January 18, 2016, 11:48:52 PM »
In this case, it's the government (UN?), who has convinced/paid off the vast majority of scientists in the world to fabricate evidence in the support of global warming.

Well SHIT.  I am one of those scientists, and now I feel like I didn't get my cut of the hush money. 

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #48 on: January 19, 2016, 05:50:00 AM »
13 degrees F. Sure could use some global warming right now.

Good God. How hard is this for an adult human to understand?!

http://youtu.be/YbAWny7FV3w

It was a joke, Kris.

MoonShadow

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Re: Climate Change Talking Past Each Other Thread
« Reply #49 on: January 19, 2016, 06:00:42 AM »

Ok. So it's too costly to research renewable energy sources and make cars more efficient now, so we'll instead wait, let shit happen, and move all costal cities (1 billion people? More?) in the future. Great plan.

So you just disagree with what to do about it?

Please show me where I said that.  I said that we have more pressing issues, and we do.  There will be research into these things, for no other reason than they are potentially profitable.  And over the course or 100 to 200 years, moving a costal city isn't a particularly difficult issue.  Zoning alone could take care of motivating people to live on higher ground early, over the course of 4 generations.  Alternatively, if these costal cities desire to preserve their present waterfronts, earthworks and levees could be planned well in advance to manage that.  Haven't the Dutch managed to farm land below sea level for centuries already?  It's not like it's new technology; it just takes time and money.