Canadian General Election

[Kmp2]

Harper's speech wasn't too bad, considering.  He sounded less stiff than usual. But I just realized, he is now leader of the opposition. Urk.  And the country-building comments, from the snitch line guy?

I thought I heard him resign as leader of the CPC... But unfortunately not his seat, so I don't as of yet get my by-election.

And as an Albertan, the east-west, urban-rural split was the story for quite a few years.... Nothing like turning on cbc and hearing a liberal majority had been announced an hour before the polls here had closed.

Still in awe that a liberal seat in calgary is going to a Trudeau government... Trudeau was sort of a bad word in this province when I was growing up.

[Kmp2]

Just a thought - does this mean we can have more policy discussion and fewer attack ads during elections from here on in?  Since policy proposals won and attack ads didn't work too well?

Oh! please make it so!

[KMMK]

Goodbye to Pat Martin in my riding. I used to vote for him but he was becoming increasingly weird. Our liberal candidate (now MP) is my age and seemed a lot smarter and more ethical. I hope it helps this area (Winnipeg Centre) even though I'm leaving it.

[choppingwood]

Who would have thought when I moved to Alberta seven years ago that I would end up -- without moving again --  living in a province with an NDP government, a country with a Liberal government, and have an NDP MLA and a Conservative MP.

[YK-Phil]

Who would have thought when I moved to Alberta seven years ago that I would end up -- without moving again --  living in a province with an NDP government, a country with a Liberal government, and have an NDP MLA and a Conservative MP.

...and a very popular Muslim mayor :)

[okits]

Harper's speech wasn't too bad, considering.  He sounded less stiff than usual. But I just realized, he is now leader of the opposition. Urk.  And the country-building comments, from the snitch line guy?

I thought I heard him resign as leader of the CPC... But unfortunately not his seat, so I don't as of yet get my by-election.

And as an Albertan, the east-west, urban-rural split was the story for quite a few years.... Nothing like turning on cbc and hearing a liberal majority had been announced an hour before the polls here had closed.

Still in awe that a liberal seat in calgary is going to a Trudeau government... Trudeau was sort of a bad word in this province when I was growing up.

I was surprised by how early they called the winner (just after 9:30pm, which is when my polling station closed.  Ontario.)  I hadn't even started watching the coverage, yet.

Surprised by the majority and just how much of the popular vote the Liberals won.  This thread's poll actually nailed that part.

[RetiredAt63]

I heard that there were so many advance poll votes that they started counting them early. That probably gave them a lot of early numbers.

Anyone hear a number for voter turnout?

And it is 1:37, time to sleep.

I was surprised by how early they called the winner (just after 9:30pm, which is when my polling station closed.  Ontario.)  I hadn't even started watching the coverage, yet.

[GuitarStv]

Voter turn out was pretty high at 61%.

[Le Poisson]

So now its the morning after. We've gone 8 hours and there have been no riots... so far.

Just a thought - does this mean we can have more policy discussion and fewer attack ads during elections from here on in?  Since policy proposals won and attack ads didn't work too well?

If there are going to be attack ads, lets have more like the ender that the liberals tossed out after their rally. I've never had an attack ad feel so inspiring (although to be honest there is little substance to the ad. But there's still more than most of the CPC ads. https://youtu.be/wD5FAzvltpI

In my riding, the previous mayor (CPC) was ousted by a young black woman (LIB). This is a very white, very old neighbourhood. Interesting that the "Heave Steve" momentum was enough to clear the path for her, and I hope she does well.

Not sure if I already said it, but its very unclear to me how the infrastructure spending will be delivered. Transportation & transit, electric, and sewer budgets are all administered through the provinces and municipalities. There is very little federally owned infrastructure. Past governments have delivered stimulus funds, but the funds were narrowly focused on "shovel-ready" projects allowing municipalities to reallocate spending rather than spark new projects. I am interested to see the delivery on this, as it is a big piece of what we need right now.

I also wonder about our national parks and tourism programs. They have seen heavy cuts. How long until they rebound? Will Trudeau be willing to reallocate funds to them?

Parting thought: What's up with Rex Murphy's eye lids. Is he OK, or is there some condition he's picked up?

[GuitarStv]

I'll be interested to see how transit in Toronto will be handled by the new government.  The Liberals picked up a lot of support from Toronto, and transit is going to be a crisis situation in a couple years (thanks to the damage that Ford did).

[Prairie Gal]

Lots of upset people on my FB feed this morning out here in conservative Alberta. As for myself, I am feeling optimistic. Time will tell if the feeling is warranted.

[nereo]

it actually made front-page news in the US - not even the death of Jack Layton did that...
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/20/world/americas/canada-election-stephen-harper-justin-trudeau.html?_r=0

living in Quebec and working in the maritimes I've yet to meet anyone who publicly supported Harper in this election.  Amazing how segmented large countries can be (both US and Canada)

[TravelJunkyQC]

Dissapointed that my riding went conservative, but at least as a whole we've got a liberal majority. Also dissapointed that the NDP lost a lot of ground, but eh, things are looking up regardless!

[GuitarStv]

NDP losing ground kinda made sense.  They had a huge showing last election because the conservative attack ads against the liberals worked well, and the bloc didn't do well in Quebec.  This time around the bloc made a comeback, and the ABC vote seemed to largely point liberal.

[Le Poisson]

NDP losing ground kinda made sense.  They had a huge showing last election because the conservative attack ads against the liberals worked well, and the bloc didn't do well in Quebec.  This time around the bloc made a comeback, and the ABC vote seemed to largely point liberal.

Agree. The NDP's individual candidates weren't able to name-build for their short stint in office either. As an opposition, only the leader got face-time, and the MP's were too young and inexperienced (for the most part) to shine past the governing party.

Sneaky Steve's split the vote and come up the middle couldn't work a second time, and the ranting attack ads weren't clicking this time around. Once he turned to shrouded racism and tip lines he looked less and less like a compassionate leader, and more and more like an extremist. Plus the whole muzzle the party thing didn't play well for him. There's an Australian political promoter out there looking for ways to put a spin this for his resumee. 

[Ottawa]

Voter turn out was pretty high at 61%.

Actually, it was higher!  68.5%.  That's pretty darn good really
http://enr.elections.ca/National.aspx?lang=e

[RetiredAt63]

Given all the rebuilding that is needed, it was smart in retrospect for Trudeau to be clear he did not expect to balance the budget right away.

Turn out 68.49% plus voters who registered at the polls - darn good!  I would have hoped for even higher, but at least we don't have a government elected by a small proportion of eligible voters.  Given a multiple party system as we have now, we will not have a government that got >50% of the votes, but it isn't too bad.  We need to keep pushing for electoral reform.

One thing that the last 10 years (and especially the last few) showed, is that a lot of "how things are understood to be done" precedents need to be formalized.  Harper walked all over precedents he didn't like.  Not good.  All that proroguing?  And vote whipping? And dissing minority and coalition governments?

And I am impressed at how early people got on the forums this morning.  <6 hours sleep -> can we IV my caffeine?  And I only look coherent thanks to spell check!

[GuitarStv]

I'm really hoping that the Liberals stick to their promise for electoral reform.  This first past the post bullshit and 'strategic voting' garbage has got to end.  I would like my vote to matter, regardless of where I live.

[YK-Phil]

Electoral reform is high up on my list of wishes, along with the rebuilding of Canada's reputation at home and abroad in science and environmental protection, peacekeeping and foreign policy. I would personally have preferred an NDP government to shake off my bad memories of past Liberal governments, but I can't say I am unhappy with Justin Trudeau as our PM. The thought of a Harper government being reelected gave me a constant stomach ache since election were called, but I feel much better already.

[RetiredAt63]

I stayed up for all the speeches.  Harper actually looked relaxed - maybe this is some pressure off him?  I liked Trudeau's speech more than I expected to.  He was inclusive and reassuring and had a vision.  He has lots of talent for his cabinet.   He listens to people, and I hope he pushes his MPs to listen to their constituents (I got the run-around from my conservative MP when I wrote to him).

I like Mulcair, but in some ways the Liberal platform is actually more radical than the NDP - a deficit in a recession, when interest rates are low, actually makes some sense.  And there is so much that needs spending on, ouch. 

The civil service must have improved morale this morning, Harper just showed such disrespect for them in so many ways.

[Ottawa]

Things likely to be done sooner rather than later...

1) Inquiry into missing/murdered aboriginal women
2) TFSA back to 5500
3) Child benefits redistributed according to need
4) Electoral reform discussion started
5) Middle class tax cuts (from 22.5 - 20% between $44,700 and $89,401
6) Syrian refugee handling

[RetiredAt63]

And to add:
Restore "pure science" research funding
Take the muzzles off our federal scientists for scientific publication and conferences
Let diplomats do their jobs
Fund basic public services better - everything from veterans affairs (services for veterans)
   to the payroll department having enough staff to properly process contracts and pay.
Proper Parliamentary oversight on security legislation
Proper functioning of committees.
Open up access to information, including media access.

And on, and on

Things likely to be done sooner rather than later...

1) Inquiry into missing/murdered aboriginal women
2) TFSA back to 5500
3) Child benefits redistributed according to need
4) Electoral reform discussion started
5) Middle class tax cuts (from 22.5 - 20% between $44,700 and $89,401
6) Syrian refugee handling

[nereo]

2) TFSA back to 5500

Curious - why do you want the TFSA to go back to 5500 (from $10k limit introduced this year, as I understand it).

[Le Poisson]

2) TFSA back to 5500

Curious - why do you want the TFSA to go back to 5500 (from $10k limit introduced this year, as I understand it).

This is one of the bitter pills that was part of the Liberal platform. While none of us are excited to see it, it is fiscally responsible since it was a tax on future-Canada that only present Canada would benefit from.

ETA - since I'm already at $6300 in my TFSA this year, I need to find a strategy to divert cash. I wonder if this change will take effect starting in 2016. How will back-filling work for years before we started stashing?

[Jon_Snow]

The ability to continue to add 20k yearly to our TFSA's was going to be a very valuable financial tool for us. I think I could have used it very effectively to convince my wife to join me retirement sooner rather than later. One of our financial "goal posts" is to reach 250k in our TFSA accounts...a task likely to take longer now. Yeah, this has always been my biggest disappointment with the Liberal platform. Oh well, perhaps I can compensate by stepping up my stock picking game a bit.

[Ottawa]

2) TFSA back to 5500

Curious - why do you want the TFSA to go back to 5500 (from $10k limit introduced this year, as I understand it).

This is one of the bitter pills that was part of the Liberal platform. While none of us are excited to see it, it is fiscally responsible since it was a tax on future-Canada that only present Canada would benefit from.

ETA - since I'm already at $6300 in my TFSA this year, I need to find a strategy to divert cash. I wonder if this change will take effect starting in 2016. How will back-filling work for years before we started stashing?

A couple of reasons.  The first is that it was an artificial 'vote buying' increase to begin with.  Although it obviously benefits me, I felt it was like being forced to accept a bribe.  Secondly, what Prospector says above. 

In the end, portfolio structure means taxes are likely to be zero (or close) in retirement anyway. 

[GuitarStv]

TFSA limit for 2015 is 10k (http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/tx/ndvdls/tpcs/tfsa-celi/cntrbtn-eng.html).  I'd be surprised for them to try and retroactively take that away.  2016 will be back to 5500.  Which sucks.  But less than having the Conservatives in power again.

[RetiredAt63]

This echos many of the opinions voiced here.  Maybe it should be required reading for our new MPs?

http://www.halifaxexaminer.ca/featured/the-hypnotized-never-lie-morning-file-tuesday-october-20-2015/

[Al1961]

Haven't logged in for a month, and completely missed this thread. Couldn't vote in the poll, but did vote Liberal yesterday.

Overall, I'm happy with the result. Still in a suburb of Edmonton that voted 65% conservative. :-( Oh well, will be permanently on Vancouver Island well before the next election, so I may yet live in a non-conservative riding before reaching age 60.

Not too worried about the roll back of the TFSA limit. As has been said above, the bump was an election gimmick. We'll be just fine with the old limit.

Al

[scottish]

This seems like an appropriate picture.  I bet Patrick Brazeau felt the same sense of surprise and shock.

[daverobev]

I'm guessing all the UCCB/CCTB stuff won't happen til next year - meaning payments won't change til June 16? Oh well.

I wonder what will happen with the FTC - presumably that, like the TFSA, is a done deal for *this* financial year, but will be cut from 16 on.

Some people think next year's TFSA allowance will be only $1k, to bring back to $5.5k (10k + 1k = 11k over two years). Others think next year will be 5.5. Others still assume it won't get changed in time for '16, so we'll get $10k next year. One can only hope!

Also: I want mah pot cigs! Or pot muchies. Or whatever.

It'll be Stoney, this Christmas...

Oh yeah - can we call him Justin Twodeau? Hey? Hey?

(No I'm not drunk. Or stoned.)

[Prairie Stash]

2) TFSA back to 5500

Curious - why do you want the TFSA to go back to 5500 (from $10k limit introduced this year, as I understand it).

This is one of the bitter pills that was part of the Liberal platform. While none of us are excited to see it, it is fiscally responsible since it was a tax on future-Canada that only present Canada would benefit from.

ETA - since I'm already at $6300 in my TFSA this year, I need to find a strategy to divert cash. I wonder if this change will take effect starting in 2016. How will back-filling work for years before we started stashing?

A couple of reasons.  The first is that it was an artificial 'vote buying' increase to begin with.  Although it obviously benefits me, I felt it was like being forced to accept a bribe.  Secondly, what Prospector says above. 

In the end, portfolio structure means taxes are likely to be zero (or close) in retirement anyway.

Isn't every policy change "artificial vote buying?" i.e. liberals tax cut for middle class buys middle class votes, NDP subsidized daycare buys family votes etc. Please note that this comment wasn't partisan, just an observation.

I like the tax strategy to avoid taxes prior to retirement. When I bought my house, prior to TFSA, I got dinged taxes for the accrued interest on my down payment. I wasn't earning a high wage (bottom tax bracket) and I was saving 10K/year (outside of RRSP). Obviously the pre-retirement portfolio structure becomes a little more important now that the TFSA is scheduled for reduction.

[Goldielocks]

This seems like an appropriate picture.  I bet Patrick Brazeau felt the same sense of surprise and shock.

Love it.  'Just not ready' made me mad every time I saw it.  Primed me to be open to changing party affiliation.

[RetiredAt63]

Whew!  Good start to change, climate and otherwise.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/politics/trudeau-invites-may-other-leaders-to-join-un-climate-summit-delegation-1.2625763

[GuitarStv]

They've also been talking about brining back the long form census!  :D

[RetiredAt63]

I know.  It shows how much Canada changed under Harper that we are getting excited about things like the long form census. 

[RetiredAt63]

Given the doom and gloom some people are expressing about the economy with the new government, it is interesting to look at this Maclean's article from last spring:

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/of-the-last-three-federal-governments-which-had-the-best-fiscal-record/

[RetiredAt63]

Well, we had the election, so this thread has pretty well run its course. Anyone interested in a new thread here in Off Topic about issues the new government will face?  Or are we all getting our political fixes elsewhere now?

[Joan-eh?]

My worry is going to be spending money we don't have. I'd rather my legacy to my children, grandchildren not be debt. I'm not sure how to reconcile this.

[RetiredAt63]

Interesting article - I would not have said that electing Justin Trudeau was starting a family political dynasty, any more than electing Paul Martin was (Paul Martin senior was a cabinet minister for 4 Prime Ministers).  Trudeau had to prove himself almost more because he is a Trudeau.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/the-free-world-has-lost-its-leader/article/2574696#.Vi6_1K4BC3o.facebook

@Joan-eh?  Harper inherited a surplus and spent us into a deficit.  Let's see how things go for a while?  Right now the oil prices are affecting all of Canada's economy, so no-one was going to be able to make money trees grow right away.  Unfortunately, Harper not only bet on resource production to help the economy, he basically concentrated on one resource, oil.  While he was PM Ontario's manufacturing tanked - not all his fault, but he helped.

[daverobev]

My worry is going to be spending money we don't have. I'd rather my legacy to my children, grandchildren not be debt. I'm not sure how to reconcile this.

We're in a different world. The general premise is that a country shouldn't die, ergo it can keep carrying debt forever - because it will be 'working' forever.

And the theory goes that a new road *now* will lead to increased business - GDP - tax take, ergo it is more than worth borrowing to build it.

I think the biggest concern for the developed world has to be population decline. However, as Canada has significant immigration, it's less likely to be a problem here than elsewhere. Who knows, though.

[nereo]

...
I think the biggest concern for the developed world has to be population decline. However, as Canada has significant immigration, it's less likely to be a problem here than elsewhere. Who knows, though.

The projected change in Canada's population is one of the biggest macroeconomic concerns I have right now.  Like most developed nations, Canada's population is getting a lot older.  Based on projections (which could be right...or not...) Canada's over 65 population in 35 years will be about what Japan's is now.  It's about average for where we predict other large economies to be, but we're going to have some major adjustments to make with to accomodate a 65% increase in people over 65.

How Japan will manage.... yikes!  I'm glad that's not my problem to figure out... 

[RetiredAt63]

New Cabinet!  Wow.  A scientist as Minister of Science.  An Afghan refugee as Democratic Institutions Minister.  Good geographic representation. Good ethnic representation.  Gender parity - and the women have great credentials.

So happy.

[scottish]

Yep, it's a breath of fresh air so far.   I hope they keep it up.

[Zikoris]

Not a fan of the quota system. It seemed to have gone out of style in Canada for a while - hopefully it's not making a comeback.

[Gerard]

Not a fan of the quota system. It seemed to have gone out of style in Canada for a while - hopefully it's not making a comeback.

I'm gonna be an optimist and assume that because it's harder to get ahead in politics if you're not an old white guy, the non-old-white-guy MPs are probably all pretty good and can be over-represented in cabinet compared to the MPs overall, without causing  any drop in quality.

edit: It struck me just after I posted that you might be referring to the regional quota thing. In which case, yeah, I agree.

[RetiredAt63]

I don't like "quotas" as such, but it does make sense to have a cabinet that represents the country as a whole.    So ministers need to come from every region, and Trudeau is fortunate to have MPs from all regions.  I don't think "women" are a block, we are as diverse as "men", but again it makes sense to have both represented. 

Plus some of the histories are very interesting.  There is lots of diversity there.

Not a fan of the quota system. It seemed to have gone out of style in Canada for a while - hopefully it's not making a comeback.

I'm gonna be an optimist and assume that because it's harder to get ahead in politics if you're not an old white guy, the non-old-white-guy MPs are probably all pretty good and can be over-represented in cabinet compared to the MPs overall, without causing  any drop in quality.

edit: It struck me just after I posted that you might be referring to the regional quota thing. In which case, yeah, I agree.

[Gerard]

I don't like "quotas" as such, but it does make sense to have a cabinet that represents the country as a whole.    So ministers need to come from every region, and Trudeau is fortunate to have MPs from all regions.  I don't think "women" are a block, we are as diverse as "men", but again it makes sense to have both represented. 

Plus some of the histories are very interesting.  There is lots of diversity there.

Yes. The more different voices around the table, the less likely (I hope) that the govt will fall into listening only to its own echo chamber, which was clearly a problem for the Harperites (or would have been, if that dude had ever listened to his cabinet!).

I do think, though, that regional diversity matters less than it used to. I feel like I have more in common with city folk from elsewhere in the country than I do with country folk from my own province.

[Zikoris]

Not a fan of the quota system. It seemed to have gone out of style in Canada for a while - hopefully it's not making a comeback.

I'm gonna be an optimist and assume that because it's harder to get ahead in politics if you're not an old white guy, the non-old-white-guy MPs are probably all pretty good and can be over-represented in cabinet compared to the MPs overall, without causing  any drop in quality.

edit: It struck me just after I posted that you might be referring to the regional quota thing. In which case, yeah, I agree.

I'm referring to the female quota thing. It just leaves a bad taste in my mouth. I feel like it's insulting towards women, and unfair towards men.

[RetiredAt63]

In an ideal world gender would not be an issue in choosing a cabinet.  Given the still ongoing assumption that middle aged white men in suits are the default position, it seems necessary to jolt people out of that rut and remind them that people who don't match that can also be good at whatever job is being considered. This may seem overly optimistic, but I have seen academic areas and jobs that used to be 99% white male where gender and ethnic background is now irrelevant.  I hope to live long enough to see it in politics too.

Also, having two ministers with disabilities should be a silent reminder during cabinet meetings that the needs of all people need to be considered, not just some.