Author Topic: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?  (Read 6559 times)

Kris

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #150 on: January 13, 2022, 08:15:26 PM »
Yeah. Let’s leave it up to the individual states whether women are allowed to make choices about their own bodies.

Awesome.

sonofsven

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #151 on: January 13, 2022, 08:25:23 PM »
*Roe v. Wade will be effectively overturned within the next few months. Abortion has been effectively regulated out of existence in many states within the past 20 years anyway. A nationwide ban could occur within the Biden presidency if the R's win enough seats to override a veto.

In order to be able to override a presidential veto the republicans would need to flip 17 democratically held seats in the senate. However, are only 14 democratic senators up for re-election between now and the end of Biden's term and that includes elections in states like Hawaii where Biden beat Trump by 30+% in 2020.

Realistically a disaster of an election for the democrats would mean losing at most five seats in 2022. If I turn my head and squint are another 12 seats the republicans could maybe win in 2024 if that was also a complete disaster of a year for the democrats. But if anything even close to that happens in 2024 there's no realistic way Biden would have won reelection, so at that point the republicans being able to override a veto would be a moot point.

If (and hopefully when) Roe v. Wade is overturned, it will mean a return to state's deciding if abortion is legal. Not a complete ban. The whole basis of abortion being a right based on the 4th amendment (privacy) was always a terrible legal precedent - no matter which side of the issue you're on.  "The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated....." it took a lot of convoluted logic to get from there to a right to end a human life.

I don't see the convoluted logic. The part you bolded is the reason.

Sailor Sam

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #152 on: January 13, 2022, 08:44:41 PM »
You know what I think about, sometimes?   How radical the idea of a republic was, back in 1776. I know the concept was around. People were writing constitutions left and right. Yet, actually living under democracy was a pretty wild concept. How much safer it must have seemed, to revert to monarchy. But they didn’t.

Imagine the current US Senate, acting with such courage and spirit of experimentation. Hard to even picture. Which is true crying shame. I love America, and I’ve signed up to die for it if I absolutely have to, but goddamn if I’d rather not die for this current lot.

GreenToTheCore

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #153 on: January 13, 2022, 11:32:33 PM »
*Roe v. Wade will be effectively overturned within the next few months. Abortion has been effectively regulated out of existence in many states within the past 20 years anyway. A nationwide ban could occur within the Biden presidency if the R's win enough seats to override a veto.

In order to be able to override a presidential veto the republicans would need to flip 17 democratically held seats in the senate. However, are only 14 democratic senators up for re-election between now and the end of Biden's term and that includes elections in states like Hawaii where Biden beat Trump by 30+% in 2020.

Realistically a disaster of an election for the democrats would mean losing at most five seats in 2022. If I turn my head and squint are another 12 seats the republicans could maybe win in 2024 if that was also a complete disaster of a year for the democrats. But if anything even close to that happens in 2024 there's no realistic way Biden would have won reelection, so at that point the republicans being able to override a veto would be a moot point.

If (and hopefully when) Roe v. Wade is overturned, it will mean a return to state's deciding if abortion is legal. Not a complete ban. The whole basis of abortion being a right based on the 4th amendment (privacy) was always a terrible legal precedent - no matter which side of the issue you're on.  "The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated....." it took a lot of convoluted logic to get from there to a right to end a human life.

In the words of Owen Wilson, "Wow".

PDXTabs

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #154 on: January 13, 2022, 11:51:27 PM »
Yeah. Let’s leave it up to the individual states whether women are allowed to make choices about their own bodies.

Awesome.

It's ironic that the Republicans want abortion to be regulated the way that it is in the United Mexican States.*

* - the actual name of "Mexico."

PDXTabs

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #155 on: January 13, 2022, 11:57:42 PM »
They argue it is possible for liberals to "sit and watch" and "do nothing" and the wins will inevitably come all on their own because demographic destiny, because the courts will save us, or because everyone in their blue enclave thinks the R's are nuts. No amount of losses seem able to challenge this entrenched idea, because in the end hyper-individualism is about letting somebody else do the hard work of making collective structures like government function.

This is definitely how I felt before ~2018. I trusted our institutions to take care of Trump. Instead Trump took care of our institutions. I'm not sure how you can not see that as a liberal, progressive, or Democrat at this point. But as I've written before, I'm not sure how the Democrats overcome the Senate. I think the country will soon be at a stalemate if it doesn't fall apart entirely.

JoePublic3.14

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #156 on: January 14, 2022, 05:29:15 AM »
They argue it is possible for liberals to "sit and watch" and "do nothing" and the wins will inevitably come all on their own because demographic destiny, because the courts will save us, or because everyone in their blue enclave thinks the R's are nuts. No amount of losses seem able to challenge this entrenched idea, because in the end hyper-individualism is about letting somebody else do the hard work of making collective structures like government function.

This is definitely how I felt before ~2018. I trusted our institutions to take care of Trump. Instead Trump took care of our institutions. I'm not sure how you can not see that as a liberal, progressive, or Democrat at this point. But as I've written before, I'm not sure how the Democrats overcome the Senate. I think the country will soon be at a stalemate if it doesn't fall apart entirely.

Being at a stalemate 99% of the time due to the system is somewhat the secret sauce of the USA. The system forces us to not flip flop on the whim of a few. There has been exceptions of course ( prohibition as an example, but even that got corrected.)

I sleep well at night knowing the base structure provides some checks and balances, and tomorrow will be close to the same as today.

GodlessCommie

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #157 on: January 14, 2022, 07:02:08 AM »
You know what I think about, sometimes?   How radical the idea of a republic was, back in 1776. I know the concept was around. People were writing constitutions left and right. Yet, actually living under democracy was a pretty wild concept. How much safer it must have seemed, to revert to monarchy. But they didn’t.

Imagine the current US Senate, acting with such courage and spirit of experimentation. Hard to even picture. Which is true crying shame. I love America, and I’ve signed up to die for it if I absolutely have to, but goddamn if I’d rather not die for this current lot.

I absolutely agree with your big idea! But to nitpick a bit - people have been self-governing for a very long while. Founding fathers refer to some of it. Federalist Papers, for one, include a decent analysis of some of those efforts. Heck, Machiavelli's "Prince" (written in 1513) has whole sections describing how to conquer republics and retain control of them. Note that in the early 16th century there was enough data for a fairly systemic analysis. Self-governance was not only not a new idea, it wasn't a new practice, either.

But then again, on your big idea - that it was a very courageous step into the relative unknown at that moment in time and place - I'm absolutely with you. It seems especially ironic that the side that wraps itself in the flag and the Constitution, and hides behind Founders' judgement made 200+ years ago on nearly every question of today, is most at odds with this spirit of courage and social innovation.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2022, 07:07:56 AM by GodlessCommie »

GodlessCommie

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #158 on: January 14, 2022, 07:04:42 AM »
Being at a stalemate 99% of the time due to the system is somewhat the secret sauce of the USA. The system forces us to not flip flop on the whim of a few. There has been exceptions of course ( prohibition as an example, but even that got corrected.)

Compare and contrast with parliamentary democracies that flail wildly from month to month and year to year.

/s

kite

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #159 on: January 14, 2022, 07:22:21 AM »
Yeah. Let’s leave it up to the individual states whether women are allowed to make choices about their own bodies.

Awesome.

It's ironic that the Republicans want abortion to be regulated the way that it is in the United Mexican States.*

* - the actual name of "Mexico."

China, India, Greece, Turkey, Mexico, Brazil, Portugal, South Africa, Korea and Russia allow women to buy hormonal contraception without first submitting to an entirely unrelated physical exam.
The US will get there eventually.  But the resistance on the Left was disgraceful.  Yes, both PP and NARAL were once strongly opposed to hormonal contraception being OTC.  They're coming around as it's indefensible.  But this should have been the centerpiece of reproductive rights.....that women in the US should at least have as much freedom as women in Russia.
Oregon saw the light. A dozen other states soon followed.   So, yes, let's let individual states decide.  Because if it took federal legislation to make it happen, it wouldn't have happened anywhere yet.

maizefolk

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #160 on: January 14, 2022, 07:24:49 AM »
Being at a stalemate 99% of the time due to the system is somewhat the secret sauce of the USA. The system forces us to not flip flop on the whim of a few. There has been exceptions of course ( prohibition as an example, but even that got corrected.)

Compare and contrast with parliamentary democracies that flail wildly from month to month and year to year.

/s

"Bernard, I have served eleven governments in the past thirty years. If I had believed in all their policies, I would have been passionately committed to keeping out of the Common Market, and passionately committed to going into it. I would have been utterly convinced of the rightness of nationalising steel. And of denationalising it and renationalising it. On capital punishment, I'd have been a fervent retentionist and an ardent abolishionist. I would've been a Keynesian and a Friedmanite, a grammar school preserver and destroyer, a nationalisation freak and a privatisation maniac; but above all, I would have been a stark, staring, raving schizophrenic."

More seriously, yes you see bigger faster structural changes implemented in parliamentary democracies. Before 2006, college was free to students in Germany. Then the German government decided universities would charge tuition. So they did. Then, eight years later, another German government felt differently and college became free again. Can you imagine either change happening in the USA? Let alone both in a decade?

GodlessCommie

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #161 on: January 14, 2022, 07:40:45 AM »
More seriously, yes you see bigger faster structural changes implemented in parliamentary democracies. Before 2006, college was free to students in Germany. Then the German government decided universities would charge tuition. So they did. Then, eight years later, another German government felt differently and college became free again. Can you imagine either change happening in the USA? Let alone both in a decade?

The point I was countering was "The system forces us to not flip flop on the whim of a few". Which I read as "not to have unreasonable instability". The changes you describe don't fall into this category. Even if Germany was able to make and revert changes to university tuition, the overall system remained stable. I would argue that it is more stable than in the US - we are not discussing a possibility of a civil war in Germany, after all.

And to nitpick, I will point you to US Presidents undoing each other executive orders. We flip-flopped on climate-related issues pretty drastically, too - all in the span of a decade. Flip-flopped to the extent that EPA site was scrubbed of all mentioning of the dreaded "two Cs", and foreign policy programs related to climate change were canceled. Another example: https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/01/09/energy-efficiency-climate-change-biden/ 
« Last Edit: January 14, 2022, 07:53:35 AM by GodlessCommie »

LaineyAZ

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #162 on: January 14, 2022, 08:01:19 AM »
I am not a prepper either.  But I can easily imagine this scenario or some variation thereof:

     1.  Democrats get creamed in 2022 elections.

     2.  GOP uses victories to further consolidate power/install Trumpist election officials and judges.

     3.  Even with the rise of the right, Trump is such a bad candidate that enough centrists align with democrats to defeat him in the 2024 electoral college. 

     4.  Key state election officials refuse to certify the vote/throw out enough votes to turn election to Trump.  Legal challenges dismissed by lower-court Trumpist judges.  SCOTUS either (1) does not act until it is too late; (2) punts on the issue; (3) feels that the winds have shifted and sides with the GOP; or (4) overturns the lower courts but then are ignored.  [NOTE:  I do think the majority of justices are more concerned about personal legacy than fealty to the GOP/Trump.  So I do hold out hopes for SCOTUS as an institution, but it may not be enough to stop the following chain of events.]

     5.  Massive protests erupt to decry the throwing out of votes, along with condemnation across non-Fox media.  Protests continue for weeks.  But nothing is done and counterprotests of pro-GOP groups start showing up and growing in that time.  Smaller armed right-wing groups see this as their dream come true and start engaging violently. 

     6.  Eventually pushing and shoving and bottle throwing leads to shots fired, then many shots fired.  With encouragement from elected officials, cable news talking heads, and social media, police/military largely give right-wing groups pass as “keepers of order” over the “violent looters.”  Centrists and the more well-to-do stop protesting.

     7.  Inauguration Day on Jan. 20, 2025 removes any doubt that violence against those protesting Trump’s presidency will be tolerated, as protesters are beaten/killed with few repercussions.

     8.  After initial chaos and plunge of the stock market, things settle down.  There are still blistering op-eds about the death of American democracy, but people generally try to live their lives under the new regime, hoping for the best.  Massive deregulation and tax cuts juice things for a period of time.

     9.  Eventually due to short-sighted policies, massive deficits, loss of confidence in the U.S. economy, and maybe brain drain from people fleeing, market starts plunging again and things generally get really bad.

     10.  GOP politicians scapegoat “liberal elites” for wrecking the country.  Laws are passed permitting confiscation of assets of those deemed to be part of the problem (e.g., tech professionals, academia, those not registered GOP, etc.).  GOP state legislators order auditing of election ballots by partisan contractors to determine who voted the wrong way.  This is accepted by most of the population as justified by the liberal elites’ prior crimes against the country.   

     11.  “Liberal elites” turns into broader and broader groups of people deemed not sufficiently patriotic.  Facebook/Congress/Cable news personalities provide all the assurance needed that this is OK. 

     12.  The frog has been boiled and this is America now.

To me, part of why today is different is the wholesale creation of alternate realities that more and more people are living in, people who you might normally think are just busy living their own lives.  This provides the justification to do things that would be unthinkable just a decade or so earlier. 

As just one anecdote, I was stuck in a car recently and flipping through AM radio stations to find the news, and there was program after program whose message was essentially, “the Democratic party in the US is eroding your freedom, you are not alone in thinking this, there are legions of us out there, and things will be changing soon.”  There’s a lot of programming going on with much larger segments of the population than just the fringe right.

This is exactly what I think will happen, too.  I used to be a glass half-full type of person, but watching Democrats become personally demonized after years of TV and radio propaganda is both sad and horrifying.  No way to reverse that now.

maizefolk

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #163 on: January 14, 2022, 08:06:27 AM »

Compare and contrast with parliamentary democracies that flail wildly from month to month and year to year.

/s
More seriously, yes you see bigger faster structural changes implemented in parliamentary democracies. Before 2006, college was free to students in Germany. Then the German government decided universities would charge tuition. So they did. Then, eight years later, another German government felt differently and college became free again. Can you imagine either change happening in the USA? Let alone both in a decade?

The point I was countering was "The system forces us to not flip flop on the whim of a few". Which I read as "not to have unreasonable instability". The changes you describe don't fall into this category. Even if Germany was able to make and revert changes to university tuition, the overall system remained stable. I would argue that it is more stable than in the US - we are not discussing a possibility of a civil war in Germany, after all.

What level of instability is "unreasonable" is in the eye of the beholder* and so that seems like a silly point to debate. I don't think it is possible to make a valid argument that our system of government in the USA is in stalemate less often (or even as often) as the vast majority of parliamentary democracies. And that's despite how often parliamentary democracies fail to form governments entirely. Israel took four elections over two years to get a government, the dutch just spent nine months negotiating to finally decide to keep the same one they already had.

Whether a person thinks that's a feature or a bug probably depends on where they fall on the bulldozer vs vetocracy political axis. Over the long term people's views on this seem to be pretty independent of the left/right political axis, although obviously in the short term people support the party closer to having political power tend towards the bulldozer end of the spectrum.

But it makes absolutely no sense to dismiss the difference, regardless of whether one thinks the difference is positive or negative.

*At least for the moment United States remains one of the oldest surviving democracies on the globe, our warts and all. France's more parliamentary style democracy collapsed in 1958, and the solution that country converged upon was to strengthen the executive branch independent of the legislative branch into a more presidential style democratic system (although one with multi-round voting, something I really wish hope we'll see adopted in the USA someday if we don't get instant runoff voting instead).

GodlessCommie

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #164 on: January 14, 2022, 08:41:43 AM »
What level of instability is "unreasonable" is in the eye of the beholder* and so that seems like a silly point to debate. I don't think it is possible to make a valid argument that our system of government in the USA is in stalemate less often (or even as often) as the vast majority of parliamentary democracies. And that's despite how often parliamentary democracies fail to form governments entirely. Israel took four elections over two years to get a government, the dutch just spent nine months negotiating to finally decide to keep the same one they already had.

Whether a person thinks that's a feature or a bug probably depends on where they fall on the bulldozer vs vetocracy political axis. Over the long term people's views on this seem to be pretty independent of the left/right political axis, although obviously in the short term people support the party closer to having political power tend towards the bulldozer end of the spectrum.

But it makes absolutely no sense to dismiss the difference, regardless of whether one thinks the difference is positive or negative.

*At least for the moment United States remains one of the oldest surviving democracies on the globe, our warts and all. France's more parliamentary style democracy collapsed in 1958, and the solution that country converged upon was to strengthen the executive branch independent of the legislative branch into a more presidential style democratic system (although one with multi-round voting, something I really wish hope we'll see adopted in the USA someday if we don't get instant runoff voting instead).

I'm definitely not saying that parliamentary democracy is an unassailable ideal. Again, the point I was making wasn't that it was better - it was that our "safeguards against unreasonable* rapid change" don't produce unique results, or that much stability. On the latter, I see your France 1958**, and I raise you United States 1861. Plus, inability to make necessary changes is a destabilizing factor in and of itself. And if we value no changes over too much change, then inability to form a government is a feature, not a bug.

As far as the longest running democracy, that may not be true anymore. It's not clear if we qualify as one any longer.

* in the eye of the beholder, as you aptly noted
** yes, the French government collapsed, and there was a period of governance by decree - but I would argue that no living human would have preferred a 4-year long civil war
« Last Edit: January 14, 2022, 08:50:31 AM by GodlessCommie »

GuitarStv

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #165 on: January 14, 2022, 08:48:55 AM »

Compare and contrast with parliamentary democracies that flail wildly from month to month and year to year.

/s
More seriously, yes you see bigger faster structural changes implemented in parliamentary democracies. Before 2006, college was free to students in Germany. Then the German government decided universities would charge tuition. So they did. Then, eight years later, another German government felt differently and college became free again. Can you imagine either change happening in the USA? Let alone both in a decade?

The point I was countering was "The system forces us to not flip flop on the whim of a few". Which I read as "not to have unreasonable instability". The changes you describe don't fall into this category. Even if Germany was able to make and revert changes to university tuition, the overall system remained stable. I would argue that it is more stable than in the US - we are not discussing a possibility of a civil war in Germany, after all.

What level of instability is "unreasonable" is in the eye of the beholder* and so that seems like a silly point to debate. I don't think it is possible to make a valid argument that our system of government in the USA is in stalemate less often (or even as often) as the vast majority of parliamentary democracies. And that's despite how often parliamentary democracies fail to form governments entirely. Israel took four elections over two years to get a government, the dutch just spent nine months negotiating to finally decide to keep the same one they already had.

Whether a person thinks that's a feature or a bug probably depends on where they fall on the bulldozer vs vetocracy political axis. Over the long term people's views on this seem to be pretty independent of the left/right political axis, although obviously in the short term people support the party closer to having political power tend towards the bulldozer end of the spectrum.

But it makes absolutely no sense to dismiss the difference, regardless of whether one thinks the difference is positive or negative.

*At least for the moment United States remains one of the oldest surviving democracies on the globe, our warts and all. France's more parliamentary style democracy collapsed in 1958, and the solution that country converged upon was to strengthen the executive branch independent of the legislative branch into a more presidential style democratic system (although one with multi-round voting, something I really wish hope we'll see adopted in the USA someday if we don't get instant runoff voting instead).

Does a democracy really exist when large numbers of the population are not allowed to vote?  Women were allowed to vote in 1920, and black people in 1870 (kinda . . . I mean black women who were only allowed to vote in practice in 1965).

kite

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #166 on: January 14, 2022, 08:52:05 AM »
I am not a prepper either.  But I can easily imagine this scenario or some variation thereof:

     1.  Democrats get creamed in 2022 elections.

     2.  GOP uses victories to further consolidate power/install Trumpist election officials and judges.

     3.  Even with the rise of the right, Trump is such a bad candidate that enough centrists align with democrats to defeat him in the 2024 electoral college. 

     4.  Key state election officials refuse to certify the vote/throw out enough votes to turn election to Trump.  Legal challenges dismissed by lower-court Trumpist judges.  SCOTUS either (1) does not act until it is too late; (2) punts on the issue; (3) feels that the winds have shifted and sides with the GOP; or (4) overturns the lower courts but then are ignored.  [NOTE:  I do think the majority of justices are more concerned about personal legacy than fealty to the GOP/Trump.  So I do hold out hopes for SCOTUS as an institution, but it may not be enough to stop the following chain of events.]

     5.  Massive protests erupt to decry the throwing out of votes, along with condemnation across non-Fox media.  Protests continue for weeks.  But nothing is done and counterprotests of pro-GOP groups start showing up and growing in that time.  Smaller armed right-wing groups see this as their dream come true and start engaging violently. 

     6.  Eventually pushing and shoving and bottle throwing leads to shots fired, then many shots fired.  With encouragement from elected officials, cable news talking heads, and social media, police/military largely give right-wing groups pass as “keepers of order” over the “violent looters.”  Centrists and the more well-to-do stop protesting.

     7.  Inauguration Day on Jan. 20, 2025 removes any doubt that violence against those protesting Trump’s presidency will be tolerated, as protesters are beaten/killed with few repercussions.

     8.  After initial chaos and plunge of the stock market, things settle down.  There are still blistering op-eds about the death of American democracy, but people generally try to live their lives under the new regime, hoping for the best.  Massive deregulation and tax cuts juice things for a period of time.

     9.  Eventually due to short-sighted policies, massive deficits, loss of confidence in the U.S. economy, and maybe brain drain from people fleeing, market starts plunging again and things generally get really bad.

     10.  GOP politicians scapegoat “liberal elites” for wrecking the country.  Laws are passed permitting confiscation of assets of those deemed to be part of the problem (e.g., tech professionals, academia, those not registered GOP, etc.).  GOP state legislators order auditing of election ballots by partisan contractors to determine who voted the wrong way.  This is accepted by most of the population as justified by the liberal elites’ prior crimes against the country.   

     11.  “Liberal elites” turns into broader and broader groups of people deemed not sufficiently patriotic.  Facebook/Congress/Cable news personalities provide all the assurance needed that this is OK. 

     12.  The frog has been boiled and this is America now.

To me, part of why today is different is the wholesale creation of alternate realities that more and more people are living in, people who you might normally think are just busy living their own lives.  This provides the justification to do things that would be unthinkable just a decade or so earlier. 

As just one anecdote, I was stuck in a car recently and flipping through AM radio stations to find the news, and there was program after program whose message was essentially, “the Democratic party in the US is eroding your freedom, you are not alone in thinking this, there are legions of us out there, and things will be changing soon.”  There’s a lot of programming going on with much larger segments of the population than just the fringe right.

I'd watch this movie.

Don't Look Up. 

Streaming now.

PDXTabs

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #167 on: January 14, 2022, 09:22:03 AM »
Does a democracy really exist when large numbers of the population are not allowed to vote?  Women were allowed to vote in 1920, and black people in 1870 (kinda . . . I mean black women who were only allowed to vote in practice in 1965).

Indeed. Depending on how you define democracy, the UK had broad enfranchisement by 1928. I'm not aware of a country that can beat that. Also, the USA has never had a single national referendum AFAIK. It's clearly a republic.

PDXTabs

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #168 on: January 14, 2022, 09:28:48 AM »
What level of instability is "unreasonable" is in the eye of the beholder* and so that seems like a silly point to debate. I don't think it is possible to make a valid argument that our system of government in the USA is in stalemate less often (or even as often) as the vast majority of parliamentary democracies. And that's despite how often parliamentary democracies fail to form governments entirely. Israel took four elections over two years to get a government, the dutch just spent nine months negotiating to finally decide to keep the same one they already had.

Whether a person thinks that's a feature or a bug probably depends on where they fall on the bulldozer vs vetocracy political axis. Over the long term people's views on this seem to be pretty independent of the left/right political axis, although obviously in the short term people support the party closer to having political power tend towards the bulldozer end of the spectrum.

Indeed. I spent my formative years in this country and like every good American kid valued all the safeguards that were built into the constitution to prevent a mistake from happening. Then I lived through the Obama years. Sometimes the mistake is not acting. I no longer value the quagmire that we have created. With that said, the framers of the constitution can't be personally blamed, they never thought it would last this long.

But if you actually believe in democracy, what's so bad about a unicameral parliamentary democracy?

GodlessCommie

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #169 on: January 14, 2022, 09:47:51 AM »
With that said, the framers of the constitution can't be personally blamed, they never thought it would last this long.

That's the thing, when you actually read what they wrote, they fully expected us to continue to actively shape the country using our judgement. Nothing is more contrary to what founding fathers intended than hiding behind their opinions, trying to close an argument with "this was founders' intent".

maizefolk

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #170 on: January 14, 2022, 10:22:31 AM »
Does a democracy really exist when large numbers of the population are not allowed to vote?  Women were allowed to vote in 1920, and black people in 1870 (kinda . . . I mean black women who were only allowed to vote in practice in 1965).

That's a straightforward question and it has a straightforward answer: Yes it does.

What you're describing is a subset of democracies with a universal of near universal franchise. And make no mistake that's a good thing. But it's a type of democracy, not the definition of democracy.

But the roman republic (as distinct from the roman empire) was still a democracy. One with an extremely limited franchise. Lasted about 500 years (about 2.5x as long as the USA's present system of government has managed so far).

But if you actually believe in democracy, what's so bad about a unicameral parliamentary democracy?

I didn't say anything was so bad about a unicameral parliamentary democracy. I said that that it is a system of government that can and does effect bigger faster structural changes than the american democratic system.

Whether that's good or bad depends on 1) whether you think there is value to stability for its own sake (I think there is some value but not a vast amount) and 2) whether you think the types of changes the types politicians your fellow citizens tend to elect would be mostly for the better or mostly for the worse.

kite

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #171 on: January 14, 2022, 01:13:16 PM »
I don't think this is paranoia in light of the events of last year and the recent concerns raised by former presidents, generals, some of our allies and experts around the world, etc. A large proportion of Americans  reject the legitimacy of Biden's presidency and some have shown eagerness to pick up arms as a result. If things get really bad, I wonder whether my assets, savings, retirement, investments, property will be seized and/or what other unthinkable financial and other things may occur.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/09/opinions/canadians-fear-us-democracy-collapse-obeidallah/index.html

https://www.npr.org/2022/01/10/1071082955/imagine-another-american-civil-war-but-this-time-in-every-state

I am a dual U.S./Irish (EU) citizen and am interested in retiring in Ireland (not Dublin!), but not for another decade at least. I want to stay here and put in some  more time at my job (which I generally enjoy) and collect a nice pension. However, I wonder whether the pension will go out the window with everything else.

I am starting to think about opening accounts abroad--holding some assets in Euros at an Irish bank is a possibility I will be looking into with my accountant and feduciary. Maybe time to start looking for a job over there!

I have never been the stock-the-bunker-with-ammo-and canned foods kind of person, but I think less severe measures are worthwhile to think about at this point!

Any thoughts on this?

It is paranoia.

An equally large number of people proudly declared "Not My President" about Biden's predecessor.
One of whom did take up arms and opened fire on 24 Republicans gathered for baseball practice, shooting Congressman Steve Scalise in the hip, civilian Matt Mika in the chest, Capital Police officer Crystal Griner in the ankle and legislative aide Zack Barth in the calf.  The shooter had been a volunteer with Bernie Sander's 2016 campaign. 

Stop consuming so much news.  It's messing with your understanding of the world and making you afraid of the wrong things. Read a book. Start with Pinker's Better Angels of our Nature. 

Tragedy is going to happen in 2022, no doubt. It will also happen in 2023, 2024, 2025. It might even happen in a way that hurts you personally.  And the statistically most likely kinds of tragedy are that you or those you care about will suffer are a catastrophic illness, weather event, an accident or as the victim of a crime.  These are the little things that happen day in and day out to all of us, to our neighbors, colleagues and friends.  You could stock the bunker with ammo & canned goods, but liquid investments, a balanced portfolio and insurance, along with loved ones who care about you are far more valuable when tragedy strikes. 

There will still be people like right wingnut James Alex Fields Jr. and left wingnut Darrell Brooks Jr. who intentionally drove their vehicles into crowds. And while whatever news media that you consume is trying to make you afraid of only one side or the other, both gloss over the obvious.  Fields, Brooks and Hogkinson (the guy who shot up the Congressional baseball practice) all share something in common with each other.  If you know what it is, you know the prudent breakdown of whom to fear isn't on political lines.

Stop reading the news.  It's making you dumb.

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #172 on: January 14, 2022, 02:14:55 PM »
Does a democracy really exist when large numbers of the population are not allowed to vote?  Women were allowed to vote in 1920, and black people in 1870 (kinda . . . I mean black women who were only allowed to vote in practice in 1965).

That's a straightforward question and it has a straightforward answer: Yes it does.

What you're describing is a subset of democracies with a universal of near universal franchise. And make no mistake that's a good thing. But it's a type of democracy, not the definition of democracy.

But the roman republic (as distinct from the roman empire) was still a democracy. One with an extremely limited franchise. Lasted about 500 years (about 2.5x as long as the USA's present system of government has managed so far).

But if you actually believe in democracy, what's so bad about a unicameral parliamentary democracy?

I didn't say anything was so bad about a unicameral parliamentary democracy. I said that that it is a system of government that can and does effect bigger faster structural changes than the american democratic system.

Whether that's good or bad depends on 1) whether you think there is value to stability for its own sake (I think there is some value but not a vast amount) and 2) whether you think the types of changes the types politicians your fellow citizens tend to elect would be mostly for the better or mostly for the worse.

Lots of Parliamentary systems are bicameral, not unicameral.  We are, the UK is, Australia is.  Our Senate is supposed to be the house of sober second thought, a job it does very poorly these days.

bacchi

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #173 on: January 14, 2022, 02:15:01 PM »
An equally large number of people proudly declared "Not My President" about Biden's predecessor.

Over 70%* of Republicans doubt that Biden actually won a fair election. Nowhere near 70% of Democrats thought that the defeated former President didn't win fairly.

* https://polsci.umass.edu/toplines-and-crosstabs-december-2021-national-poll-presidential-election-jan-6th-insurrection-us

the_gastropod

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #174 on: January 14, 2022, 02:22:31 PM »
It is paranoia.

An equally large number of people proudly declared "Not My President" about Biden's predecessor.

Oh, good! It's my old pal "BOTH SIDES!!" again. Yes, liberals chanted "Not My President" about Trump to suggest "This [disgusting] man does not represent me or my views". It was not some widespread view that Trump stole the election by rigging voting machines or whatever. This is false equivalency.

One of whom did take up arms and opened fire on 24 Republicans gathered for baseball practice, shooting Congressman Steve Scalise in the hip, civilian Matt Mika in the chest, Capital Police officer Crystal Griner in the ankle and legislative aide Zack Barth in the calf.  The shooter had been a volunteer with Bernie Sander's 2016 campaign. 

Indeed! And this was condemned almost immediately [1] by Bernie Sanders and virtually every other Democratic politician. Contrast this to, say, Kyle Rittenhouse or the McCloskeys, who are celebrities among the right for killing and/or threatening to kill BLM protesters.

Stop consuming so much news.  It's messing with your understanding of the world and making you afraid of the wrong things. Read a book. Start with Pinker's Better Angels of our Nature. 

Ahh, a Stephen Pinker fan! There's a lot [2] to critique about that particular... uhh, "thought-leader".

[1] https://time.com/4818385/steve-scalise-shooting-james-hodgkinson-bernie-sanders/
[2] https://www.currentaffairs.org/2019/05/the-worlds-most-annoying-man

GodlessCommie

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #175 on: January 14, 2022, 02:41:13 PM »
Oh, good! It's my old pal "BOTH SIDES!!" again. Yes, liberals chanted "Not My President" about Trump to suggest "This [disgusting] man does not represent me or my views". It was not some widespread view that Trump stole the election by rigging voting machines or whatever. This is false equivalency.

It is false equivalence, but I don't think for this reason.

A lot of us on the Left thought that Trump won unfairly, thanks *in part* to collusion with Russia. I still don't see the case as closed even now, since it was never properly investigated - Mueller was constrained by partisan DoJ leadership, and he flat out refused to compel Trump himself to testify. He also included in his report that there may be evidence of obstruction of his investigation by Trump, which he again decided not to pursue for <reasons>.

Even what was investigated proved beyond any benefit of the doubt, with grand juries and all, that Russia was actively working to help Trump. Left's position on that isn't disconnected from reality, it simply has unresolved/uninvestigated parts. Compare and contrast with the Republican complete embrace of total fiction, comically idiotic accusations that no one is even trying to defend in the court of law. Rudy said, in court, that he found his material on the internet and didn't have time to verify. Sidney Powell's defense is that what she said wass so idiotic that no reasonable person would have believed it, and so was harmless.

Where the real difference lies is changes Republican state legislatures put in place afterwards to take power away from independent/non-partisan election authorities, and in the hands of legislative bodies they control. The machinery is now in place to overrule the will of the voters. This is the scary part, for which there is no both sides at all.

maizefolk

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #176 on: January 14, 2022, 02:42:05 PM »
But if you actually believe in democracy, what's so bad about a unicameral parliamentary democracy?

I didn't say anything was so bad about a unicameral parliamentary democracy. I said that that it is a system of government that can and does effect bigger faster structural changes than the american democratic system.

Whether that's good or bad depends on 1) whether you think there is value to stability for its own sake (I think there is some value but not a vast amount) and 2) whether you think the types of changes the types politicians your fellow citizens tend to elect would be mostly for the better or mostly for the worse.

Lots of Parliamentary systems are bicameral, not unicameral.  We are, the UK is, Australia is.  Our Senate is supposed to be the house of sober second thought, a job it does very poorly these days.

I will be up front that this is where my graph of political science/political theory breaks down a bit. My understanding of the house of lords is that it's essentially a vestigial body at this point. Is your view that it still holds political power? If so I'll defer to you as having more expertise in this area as a citizen of the british commonwealth.

It is certainly true that there are bicameral parliamentary systems out there, but my go-to example would probably Italy where the PM requires the support of both houses and either can hold a vote of no confidence. It's not really clear to me what the benefit of this system is, but the Italians clearly like it having rejected a proposal to reduce the power of their upper house in a way that would have brought their system more in line with the systems used by various british common wealth members only five years ago by a margin of nearly 20% which seems pretty decisive.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #177 on: January 14, 2022, 03:19:44 PM »
But if you actually believe in democracy, what's so bad about a unicameral parliamentary democracy?

I didn't say anything was so bad about a unicameral parliamentary democracy. I said that that it is a system of government that can and does effect bigger faster structural changes than the american democratic system.

Whether that's good or bad depends on 1) whether you think there is value to stability for its own sake (I think there is some value but not a vast amount) and 2) whether you think the types of changes the types politicians your fellow citizens tend to elect would be mostly for the better or mostly for the worse.

Lots of Parliamentary systems are bicameral, not unicameral.  We are, the UK is, Australia is.  Our Senate is supposed to be the house of sober second thought, a job it does very poorly these days.

I will be up front that this is where my graph of political science/political theory breaks down a bit. My understanding of the house of lords is that it's essentially a vestigial body at this point. Is your view that it still holds political power? If so I'll defer to you as having more expertise in this area as a citizen of the british commonwealth.

It is certainly true that there are bicameral parliamentary systems out there, but my go-to example would probably Italy where the PM requires the support of both houses and either can hold a vote of no confidence. It's not really clear to me what the benefit of this system is, but the Italians clearly like it having rejected a proposal to reduce the power of their upper house in a way that would have brought their system more in line with the systems used by various british common wealth members only five years ago by a margin of nearly 20% which seems pretty decisive.

House of Lords is the UK.  We (Canada) have a Senate, which is appointed.  It has major problems and there have been lots of discussion on how to improve it, including eliminating it.  The Provinces are all unicameral so there is precedent.

Bateaux

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #178 on: January 14, 2022, 04:29:52 PM »
I was concerned until the January 6 debacle.  They'd been better off as keyboard warriors.  I've seen Mardi Gras parades more threatening than those Alt-right punks.

former player

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #179 on: January 14, 2022, 04:30:00 PM »
But if you actually believe in democracy, what's so bad about a unicameral parliamentary democracy?

I didn't say anything was so bad about a unicameral parliamentary democracy. I said that that it is a system of government that can and does effect bigger faster structural changes than the american democratic system.

Whether that's good or bad depends on 1) whether you think there is value to stability for its own sake (I think there is some value but not a vast amount) and 2) whether you think the types of changes the types politicians your fellow citizens tend to elect would be mostly for the better or mostly for the worse.

Lots of Parliamentary systems are bicameral, not unicameral.  We are, the UK is, Australia is.  Our Senate is supposed to be the house of sober second thought, a job it does very poorly these days.

I will be up front that this is where my graph of political science/political theory breaks down a bit. My understanding of the house of lords is that it's essentially a vestigial body at this point. Is your view that it still holds political power? If so I'll defer to you as having more expertise in this area as a citizen of the british commonwealth.

It is certainly true that there are bicameral parliamentary systems out there, but my go-to example would probably Italy where the PM requires the support of both houses and either can hold a vote of no confidence. It's not really clear to me what the benefit of this system is, but the Italians clearly like it having rejected a proposal to reduce the power of their upper house in a way that would have brought their system more in line with the systems used by various british common wealth members only five years ago by a margin of nearly 20% which seems pretty decisive.
The House of Lords isn't vestigial.  It doesn't do finance and won't bring down a government or vote out major legislation.  But it is effective in scrutinising government proposals and getting them changed if they don't make sense - because of the rather odd nature of appointments to the Lords and little government control over who turns up on any particular day the government can't push through a vote against the feeling of the House in the same way as it can in the Commons, but has to rely on winning the argument instead.

JoePublic3.14

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #180 on: January 14, 2022, 06:02:50 PM »
I was concerned until the January 6 debacle.  They'd been better off as keyboard warriors.  I've seen Mardi Gras parades more threatening than those Alt-right punks.

Lol, my view exactly. A couple minor defensive moves and January 6th wouldn’t even be a footnote.

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #181 on: January 14, 2022, 10:03:21 PM »
I was concerned until the January 6 debacle.  They'd been better off as keyboard warriors.  I've seen Mardi Gras parades more threatening than those Alt-right punks.

Seriously? Oath Keeper guns. Bombs defused. Deaths during and after the riots. 

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #182 on: January 14, 2022, 11:06:42 PM »
But if you actually believe in democracy, what's so bad about a unicameral parliamentary democracy?

I didn't say anything was so bad about a unicameral parliamentary democracy. I said that that it is a system of government that can and does effect bigger faster structural changes than the american democratic system.

Whether that's good or bad depends on 1) whether you think there is value to stability for its own sake (I think there is some value but not a vast amount) and 2) whether you think the types of changes the types politicians your fellow citizens tend to elect would be mostly for the better or mostly for the worse.

I never meant to imply that you said anything was bad about unicameral parliamentary democracies. But lots of others have. I stand by my statement that if democracy is a value that a country espouses then a unicameral parliamentary democracy is better than the US system or a bicameral parliament. If the people are sovereign then let them rule.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2022, 11:11:51 PM by PDXTabs »

PDXTabs

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #183 on: January 14, 2022, 11:11:15 PM »
Lots of Parliamentary systems are bicameral, not unicameral.  We are, the UK is, Australia is.  Our Senate is supposed to be the house of sober second thought, a job it does very poorly these days.

Indeed, so was ours. Ours is even worse than yours.

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #184 on: January 15, 2022, 08:01:08 AM »
I am not a prepper either.  But I can easily imagine this scenario or some variation thereof:

     1.  Democrats get creamed in 2022 elections.

     2.  GOP uses victories to further consolidate power/install Trumpist election officials and judges.

     3.  Even with the rise of the right, Trump is such a bad candidate that enough centrists align with democrats to defeat him in the 2024 electoral college. 

     4.  Key state election officials refuse to certify the vote/throw out enough votes to turn election to Trump.  Legal challenges dismissed by lower-court Trumpist judges.  SCOTUS either (1) does not act until it is too late; (2) punts on the issue; (3) feels that the winds have shifted and sides with the GOP; or (4) overturns the lower courts but then are ignored.  [NOTE:  I do think the majority of justices are more concerned about personal legacy than fealty to the GOP/Trump.  So I do hold out hopes for SCOTUS as an institution, but it may not be enough to stop the following chain of events.]

     5.  Massive protests erupt to decry the throwing out of votes, along with condemnation across non-Fox media.  Protests continue for weeks.  But nothing is done and counterprotests of pro-GOP groups start showing up and growing in that time.  Smaller armed right-wing groups see this as their dream come true and start engaging violently. 

     6.  Eventually pushing and shoving and bottle throwing leads to shots fired, then many shots fired.  With encouragement from elected officials, cable news talking heads, and social media, police/military largely give right-wing groups pass as “keepers of order” over the “violent looters.”  Centrists and the more well-to-do stop protesting.

     7.  Inauguration Day on Jan. 20, 2025 removes any doubt that violence against those protesting Trump’s presidency will be tolerated, as protesters are beaten/killed with few repercussions.

     8.  After initial chaos and plunge of the stock market, things settle down.  There are still blistering op-eds about the death of American democracy, but people generally try to live their lives under the new regime, hoping for the best.  Massive deregulation and tax cuts juice things for a period of time.

     9.  Eventually due to short-sighted policies, massive deficits, loss of confidence in the U.S. economy, and maybe brain drain from people fleeing, market starts plunging again and things generally get really bad.

     10.  GOP politicians scapegoat “liberal elites” for wrecking the country.  Laws are passed permitting confiscation of assets of those deemed to be part of the problem (e.g., tech professionals, academia, those not registered GOP, etc.).  GOP state legislators order auditing of election ballots by partisan contractors to determine who voted the wrong way.  This is accepted by most of the population as justified by the liberal elites’ prior crimes against the country.   

     11.  “Liberal elites” turns into broader and broader groups of people deemed not sufficiently patriotic.  Facebook/Congress/Cable news personalities provide all the assurance needed that this is OK. 

     12.  The frog has been boiled and this is America now.

To me, part of why today is different is the wholesale creation of alternate realities that more and more people are living in, people who you might normally think are just busy living their own lives.  This provides the justification to do things that would be unthinkable just a decade or so earlier. 

As just one anecdote, I was stuck in a car recently and flipping through AM radio stations to find the news, and there was program after program whose message was essentially, “the Democratic party in the US is eroding your freedom, you are not alone in thinking this, there are legions of us out there, and things will be changing soon.”  There’s a lot of programming going on with much larger segments of the population than just the fringe right.

I'd watch this movie.

Don't Look Up. 

Streaming now.


Yep, I've seen it and I think we're all living it right now.

GodlessCommie

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #185 on: January 15, 2022, 11:15:22 AM »
I was concerned until the January 6 debacle.  They'd been better off as keyboard warriors.  I've seen Mardi Gras parades more threatening than those Alt-right punks.

Lol, my view exactly. A couple minor defensive moves and January 6th wouldn’t even be a footnote.

I don't think there's anything to lol about. Those minor defensive moves were prevented by the Administration. Next time Rs control the WH, the National Guard may not come at all.

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #186 on: January 15, 2022, 11:42:59 AM »
Wars tend to destroy things.

Would a strongly capitalist society like America let widespread destruction happen? I know there are profits to be had for a few in reconstruction but would the USA let lawlessness destruction spread? Would the insurance industry allow it?

Or does it look more like the a Hatfield and McCoy feud?

JoePublic3.14

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #187 on: January 15, 2022, 12:09:30 PM »
I was concerned until the January 6 debacle.  They'd been better off as keyboard warriors.  I've seen Mardi Gras parades more threatening than those Alt-right punks.

Lol, my view exactly. A couple minor defensive moves and January 6th wouldn’t even be a footnote.

I don't think there's anything to lol about. Those minor defensive moves were prevented by the Administration. Next time Rs control the WH, the National Guard may not come at all.

I thought it was amusing. Looking at some of the videos, it seemed to me that the group of thugs had no real plan and actually looked a bit surprised at how easily they were able to stroll inside. Uh, uh now what? Breaking into offices and posing for pictures is hilarious. There’s no conceivable outcome of that 'attack' that would actually have taken down the country. Drive some change? Of course. We have a long history of complacency, and the occasional comeuppance is healthy. Certainly horrible that some innocent folks got hurt though, that sucks.

An interesting feature of our system is just how difficult a coup would be to execute.

GodlessCommie

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #188 on: January 15, 2022, 12:16:02 PM »
I thought it was amusing. Looking at some of the videos, it seemed to me that the group of thugs had no real plan and actually looked a bit surprised at how easily they were able to stroll inside.

...except some of them had a plan. A plan and a stash of weapons on the VA side of the Potomac.

Quote
An interesting feature of our system is just how difficult a coup would be to execute.

It wouldn't be difficult next time, when the failure of this one is analyzed, and better preparations made.

bacchi

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #189 on: January 15, 2022, 12:36:04 PM »
I was concerned until the January 6 debacle.  They'd been better off as keyboard warriors.  I've seen Mardi Gras parades more threatening than those Alt-right punks.

Lol, my view exactly. A couple minor defensive moves and January 6th wouldn’t even be a footnote.

I don't think there's anything to lol about. Those minor defensive moves were prevented by the Administration. Next time Rs control the WH, the National Guard may not come at all.

I thought it was amusing. Looking at some of the videos, it seemed to me that the group of thugs had no real plan and actually looked a bit surprised at how easily they were able to stroll inside. Uh, uh now what? Breaking into offices and posing for pictures is hilarious. There’s no conceivable outcome of that 'attack' that would actually have taken down the country. Drive some change? Of course. We have a long history of complacency, and the occasional comeuppance is healthy. Certainly horrible that some innocent folks got hurt though, that sucks.

An interesting feature of our system is just how difficult a coup would be to execute.

The Oath Keepers did have a group (a "stack") moving through the Capitol to find Pelosi. Were they just looking to have a quiet chat with her about the budget?

Eastman's plan certainly didn't include storming the capitol. It did include attempting to convince Pence and the Arizona Speaker, among others, to toss out the popularly elected electoral slate. It included Cruz et al trying to delay the certification of certain states.

What would happen if Pence refused to certify GA, AZ, WI, and MI votes* because there were dual electors? Eastman explains this in Step 4. There would be no declared winner and it gets kicked to the House, where the defeated former President would've prevailed. Lawsuits would follow and then the question becomes: Do the new Justices really believe in the Constitution or are they also part of the cultural wars?


* Pence did call former VP Quayle and asked for his advice. Pence might've been skeptical but he was considering it.

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #190 on: January 15, 2022, 12:39:48 PM »
It's entirely possible to hold the following two views at the same time:
1) January 6 could easily have been much much worse
2) The perpetrators are incompetent clowns

Large, angry crowds are /always/ super dangerous. Doesn't matter if the median crowd IQ is 50 or 150.

maizefolk

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #191 on: January 15, 2022, 01:03:45 PM »
Wars tend to destroy things.

Would a strongly capitalist society like America let widespread destruction happen? I know there are profits to be had for a few in reconstruction but would the USA let lawlessness destruction spread? Would the insurance industry allow it?

Or does it look more like the a Hatfield and McCoy feud?

People do irrational and economically non-optimal things all the time. And people in large groups are far less rational and reasonable creatures than we are as individuals.

A man was shot in Yugoslavia, and twenty million people died, governments around the world spent on the order of $6T (in today's dollars) and ultimately many of them fell completely. It would have been in the best interests of all the people making the decisions in those various nations NOT to fight world war 1. Almost all of them knew it was going to be a complete disaster. And they did it anyway.

kite

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #192 on: January 15, 2022, 02:00:08 PM »
Oh, good! It's my old pal "BOTH SIDES!!" again. Yes, liberals chanted "Not My President" about Trump to suggest "This [disgusting] man does not represent me or my views". It was not some widespread view that Trump stole the election by rigging voting machines or whatever. This is false equivalency.

It is false equivalence, but I don't think for this reason.

A lot of us on the Left thought that Trump won unfairly, thanks *in part* to collusion with Russia. I still don't see the case as closed even now, since it was never properly investigated - Mueller was constrained by partisan DoJ leadership, and he flat out refused to compel Trump himself to testify. He also included in his report that there may be evidence of obstruction of his investigation by Trump, which he again decided not to pursue for <reasons>.

Even what was investigated proved beyond any benefit of the doubt, with grand juries and all, that Russia was actively working to help Trump. Left's position on that isn't disconnected from reality, it simply has unresolved/uninvestigated parts. Compare and contrast with the Republican complete embrace of total fiction, comically idiotic accusations that no one is even trying to defend in the court of law. Rudy said, in court, that he found his material on the internet and didn't have time to verify. Sidney Powell's defense is that what she said wass so idiotic that no reasonable person would have believed it, and so was harmless.

Where the real difference lies is changes Republican state legislatures put in place afterwards to take power away from independent/non-partisan election authorities, and in the hands of legislative bodies they control. The machinery is now in place to overrule the will of the voters. This is the scary part, for which there is no both sides at all.
.   

Whomever is telling you that the sky is falling is profiting from you being afraid that the sky is falling.  And every news outlet is in on the game.  Every single one. Their individual slant is irrelevant, it’s tailored to their particular audience’s pre existing beliefs and fears.   



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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #193 on: January 15, 2022, 02:31:14 PM »
Wars tend to destroy things.

Would a strongly capitalist society like America let widespread destruction happen? I know there are profits to be had for a few in reconstruction but would the USA let lawlessness destruction spread? Would the insurance industry allow it?

Or does it look more like the a Hatfield and McCoy feud?

People do irrational and economically non-optimal things all the time. And people in large groups are far less rational and reasonable creatures than we are as individuals.

A man was shot in Yugoslavia, and twenty million people died, governments around the world spent on the order of $6T (in today's dollars) and ultimately many of them fell completely. It would have been in the best interests of all the people making the decisions in those various nations NOT to fight world war 1. Almost all of them knew it was going to be a complete disaster. And they did it anyway.

There doesn't have to be a war for a democracy to be lost: Venezuela was once a democratic, strongly capitalist country.  And Big Capital, including the insurance companies, supports the Republican Party which supports the Big Lie.

GodlessCommie

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #194 on: January 15, 2022, 02:36:55 PM »
Whomever is telling you that the sky is falling is profiting from you being afraid that the sky is falling.

Whomever tells you that everything is fine is profiting from you being uninformed. And every news outlet is in on the game.  Every single one. Their individual slant is irrelevant, it’s tailored to their particular audience’s pre existing beliefs and fears.

See? Two can play this game.

JoePublic3.14

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #195 on: January 15, 2022, 04:17:54 PM »
Wars tend to destroy things.

Would a strongly capitalist society like America let widespread destruction happen? I know there are profits to be had for a few in reconstruction but would the USA let lawlessness destruction spread? Would the insurance industry allow it?

Or does it look more like the a Hatfield and McCoy feud?

People do irrational and economically non-optimal things all the time. And people in large groups are far less rational and reasonable creatures than we are as individuals.

A man was shot in Yugoslavia, and twenty million people died, governments around the world spent on the order of $6T (in today's dollars) and ultimately many of them fell completely. It would have been in the best interests of all the people making the decisions in those various nations NOT to fight world war 1. Almost all of them knew it was going to be a complete disaster. And they did it anyway.

There doesn't have to be a war for a democracy to be lost: Venezuela was once a democratic, strongly capitalist country.  And Big Capital, including the insurance companies, supports the Republican Party which supports the Big Lie.

What does support of one of the parties have to do with it? I thought the Big Lie was about not believing the results (as dumb as that is)?

Are there big numbers of folks from Big Capital saying “we believe the results, but want our guy to be the President anyway”, thus doing away with the democratic republic system in place? And if so, does anyone think they have a plan to make that happen?

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #196 on: January 15, 2022, 04:42:03 PM »
Are there big numbers of folks from Big Capital saying “we believe the results, but want our guy to be the President anyway”, thus doing away with the democratic republic system in place? And if so, does anyone think they have a plan to make that happen?

I mean, yes. Totally. 100%.

former player

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #197 on: January 15, 2022, 04:50:21 PM »
Wars tend to destroy things.

Would a strongly capitalist society like America let widespread destruction happen? I know there are profits to be had for a few in reconstruction but would the USA let lawlessness destruction spread? Would the insurance industry allow it?

Or does it look more like the a Hatfield and McCoy feud?

People do irrational and economically non-optimal things all the time. And people in large groups are far less rational and reasonable creatures than we are as individuals.

A man was shot in Yugoslavia, and twenty million people died, governments around the world spent on the order of $6T (in today's dollars) and ultimately many of them fell completely. It would have been in the best interests of all the people making the decisions in those various nations NOT to fight world war 1. Almost all of them knew it was going to be a complete disaster. And they did it anyway.

There doesn't have to be a war for a democracy to be lost: Venezuela was once a democratic, strongly capitalist country.  And Big Capital, including the insurance companies, supports the Republican Party which supports the Big Lie.

What does support of one of the parties have to do with it? I thought the Big Lie was about not believing the results (as dumb as that is)?

Are there big numbers of folks from Big Capital saying “we believe the results, but want our guy to be the President anyway”, thus doing away with the democratic republic system in place? And if so, does anyone think they have a plan to make that happen?
Isn't it more that Big Capital wants low taxes, lax environmental regulation and weak monopolies and anti-competitive behaviour regulation and will suport the Republican Party that gives it those things whichever of their guys they put in power?

JoePublic3.14

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #198 on: January 15, 2022, 07:01:03 PM »
Are there big numbers of folks from Big Capital saying “we believe the results, but want our guy to be the President anyway”, thus doing away with the democratic republic system in place? And if so, does anyone think they have a plan to make that happen?

I mean, yes. Totally. 100%.

Interesting, I have not seen anything about that. Of course, it is next to impossible to get facts about something like that.

 Seems like a way to make this happen is a call to boycott voting. “Don’t vote, we are taking it by force and it will look better if the vote is 0% for our person.” That would show commitment to the cause. Whining after the fact, such as was seen in 2016 and 2020, comes off as sour grapes.

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #199 on: January 15, 2022, 07:37:42 PM »
Are there big numbers of folks from Big Capital saying “we believe the results, but want our guy to be the President anyway”, thus doing away with the democratic republic system in place? And if so, does anyone think they have a plan to make that happen?

I mean, yes. Totally. 100%.

Interesting, I have not seen anything about that. Of course, it is next to impossible to get facts about something like that.

 Seems like a way to make this happen is a call to boycott voting. “Don’t vote, we are taking it by force and it will look better if the vote is 0% for our person.” That would show commitment to the cause. Whining after the fact, such as was seen in 2016 and 2020, comes off as sour grapes.

I’m a little bit confused, so apologies if we’re having different conversations. My interpretation of your questions in the innermost quote were: “would big capital throw/buy/manufacture a win for their candidate?” and “are they’re plans to put a puppet of big capital in high office?”

I said yes, because of the gerrymandering and voter suppression currently happening in the US, which I attribute to PAC money, and lobbiests, and big capital in politics.