Author Topic: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?  (Read 24586 times)

GodlessCommie

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #100 on: January 12, 2022, 03:44:54 PM »
It seems like a lot of those on the left think that the world is crumbling around them and somehow the right is gaining power - with a Democratic President and majority in Congress, left-leaning media, academia, massive support from tech companies (who essentially control the distribution of media/information), etc. Even big business, historically a Republican stronghold, now seems more concerned with supporting left-leaning causes and virtue signaling about the latest social issue than turning a profit.

The media as a whole is left-leaning only when looking from the right. CNN, NBC, and ABC are pretty much dead center. MSNBC leans left - about the only one. There is no Fox of the Left - exactly not one major channel is working to move viewers further left, as Fox does to push viewers right. There is no collaboration between CNN or MSNBC and Biden similar to one between Fox and Trump. Mainstream media appears left-leaning only as much as the right's beliefs are now in direct contradiction with observable reality (2020 election, Covid, and climate change are best examples).

Same with business. It didn't leave the GOP - the GOP left it when it left reality. Climate change is the prime example. Business can't afford to ignore it anymore. Inaction became too damn expensive.

Academia leans left, no question. It's power is overstated - if the divide is by education, then people with college degrees lose.

Facebook - the biggest and baddest of social media companies - is lead by a person who personally intervenes to bend policies to benefit the Right. Google, whose motto once was "do no evil", couldn't resist its algorithms moving people so far right that they become literal Nazis.

So yes, it does feel like the back is against the wall.
 

GodlessCommie

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #101 on: January 12, 2022, 03:49:15 PM »
I agree that no one ever asks the Canadians about it, but do you really think that they would turn down all the tech on the West Coast if given the option to acquire it into the tax base?

I don't know. That's why it is important to ask. They may value their culture more than they want money - West Coast will change culture drastically. It may not even be Canada anymore.

Canadian mustachians? Any opinion?

PDXTabs

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #102 on: January 12, 2022, 03:57:43 PM »
I don't know. That's why it is important to ask

Fair enough. But the West Coast doesn't need Canada to be an independent self sustaining country. They could just break off and instantly be the 8th largest economy on the planet or there abouts.

GuitarStv

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #103 on: January 12, 2022, 04:01:36 PM »
I agree that no one ever asks the Canadians about it, but do you really think that they would turn down all the tech on the West Coast if given the option to acquire it into the tax base?

I don't know. That's why it is important to ask. They may value their culture more than they want money - West Coast will change culture drastically. It may not even be Canada anymore.

Canadian mustachians? Any opinion?

There's a Canadian culture now???

PDXTabs

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #104 on: January 12, 2022, 04:26:22 PM »
There's a Canadian culture now???

I was going to say that, but I'm not Canadian. The people I know from British Columbia aren't exactly American, but they are probably closer to Washingtonians than Québécois.

Which reminds me: at least take the land down to the Columbia river back like you used to have.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #105 on: January 12, 2022, 04:43:04 PM »
It seems like a lot of those on the left think that the world is crumbling around them and somehow the right is gaining power - with a Democratic President and majority in Congress, left-leaning media, academia, massive support from tech companies (who essentially control the distribution of media/information), etc. Even big business, historically a Republican stronghold, now seems more concerned with supporting left-leaning causes and virtue signaling about the latest social issue than turning a profit.

The media as a whole is left-leaning only when looking from the right. CNN, NBC, and ABC are pretty much dead center. MSNBC leans left - about the only one. There is no Fox of the Left - exactly not one major channel is working to move viewers further left, as Fox does to push viewers right. There is no collaboration between CNN or MSNBC and Biden similar to one between Fox and Trump. Mainstream media appears left-leaning only as much as the right's beliefs are now in direct contradiction with observable reality (2020 election, Covid, and climate change are best examples).

Same with business. It didn't leave the GOP - the GOP left it when it left reality. Climate change is the prime example. Business can't afford to ignore it anymore. Inaction became too damn expensive.

Academia leans left, no question. It's power is overstated - if the divide is by education, then people with college degrees lose.

Facebook - the biggest and baddest of social media companies - is lead by a person who personally intervenes to bend policies to benefit the Right. Google, whose motto once was "do no evil", couldn't resist its algorithms moving people so far right that they become literal Nazis.

So yes, it does feel like the back is against the wall.
 

I think we're just going to have to agree to disagree here.

GuitarStv

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #106 on: January 12, 2022, 04:48:05 PM »
It seems like a lot of those on the left think that the world is crumbling around them and somehow the right is gaining power - with a Democratic President and majority in Congress, left-leaning media, academia, massive support from tech companies (who essentially control the distribution of media/information), etc. Even big business, historically a Republican stronghold, now seems more concerned with supporting left-leaning causes and virtue signaling about the latest social issue than turning a profit.

The media as a whole is left-leaning only when looking from the right. CNN, NBC, and ABC are pretty much dead center. MSNBC leans left - about the only one. There is no Fox of the Left - exactly not one major channel is working to move viewers further left, as Fox does to push viewers right. There is no collaboration between CNN or MSNBC and Biden similar to one between Fox and Trump. Mainstream media appears left-leaning only as much as the right's beliefs are now in direct contradiction with observable reality (2020 election, Covid, and climate change are best examples).

Same with business. It didn't leave the GOP - the GOP left it when it left reality. Climate change is the prime example. Business can't afford to ignore it anymore. Inaction became too damn expensive.

Academia leans left, no question. It's power is overstated - if the divide is by education, then people with college degrees lose.

Facebook - the biggest and baddest of social media companies - is lead by a person who personally intervenes to bend policies to benefit the Right. Google, whose motto once was "do no evil", couldn't resist its algorithms moving people so far right that they become literal Nazis.

So yes, it does feel like the back is against the wall.
 

I think we're just going to have to agree to disagree here.

Could you elaborate?

Paul der Krake

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #107 on: January 12, 2022, 05:05:47 PM »
A civil war is far less likely than the west cost and north east splitting off to join canada. In which case there may be some economic warfare but armed conflict within the US as a civil war? No way.
I put the odds of this happening at around the same as the Kingdom of Tonga brutally conquering and annexing the Americas, turning us all into East-East-Tongans.

seattlecyclone

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #108 on: January 12, 2022, 05:19:33 PM »
I've long felt that the US is too large and diverse to be effectively governed at a central level. I think the Founding Fathers hit on the right idea when they tried to leave most of the power to the states. With all the dysfunction and tribalism in DC I think it's likely that we're going to head back in that direction. Whether that means literally breaking the US into a number of smaller republics, or just devolving more power back to the states, I don't claim to have a crystal ball there. I hope that whatever happens, it happens with a minimum of violence and the different American regions remain relatively friendly with each other afterward. I'm not doing anything in particular to prepare.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #109 on: January 12, 2022, 06:18:31 PM »
A civil war is far less likely than the west cost and north east splitting off to join canada. In which case there may be some economic warfare but armed conflict within the US as a civil war? No way.

California and New York combined would be a pretty decent country on their own from an economic perspective.

New York would theoretically work since it shares a border with Canada.  But California is a bit far away.

But really, please stop talking about joining Canada.  Our political philosophies* and ways of doing things are really quite dissimilar.  Plus given we are 38 million, do you really think we would want a few states joining us that would end up being half the country by population?

*Seriously, you have no idea.  Our NDP would blow your minds.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #110 on: January 12, 2022, 06:20:53 PM »
A civil war is far less likely than the west cost and north east splitting off to join canada. In which case there may be some economic warfare but armed conflict within the US as a civil war? No way.

What amuses me is that no one ever seems to ask Canadians about that.

West Coast is not all the same. There are very red places farther away from, well, the coast. They will not accept anything quietly.

Thanks for noticing.   ;-)

former player

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #111 on: January 12, 2022, 06:22:49 PM »
A civil war is far less likely than the west cost and north east splitting off to join canada. In which case there may be some economic warfare but armed conflict within the US as a civil war? No way.

California and New York combined would be a pretty decent country on their own from an economic perspective.

New York would theoretically work since it shares a border with Canada.  But California is a bit far away.

But really, please stop talking about joining Canada.  Our political philosophies* and ways of doing things are really quite dissimilar.  Plus given we are 38 million, do you really think we would want a few states joining us that would end up being half the country by population?

*Seriously, you have no idea.  Our NDP would blow your minds.
Also, monarchy.

PDXTabs

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #112 on: January 12, 2022, 06:29:43 PM »
Plus given we are 38 million, do you really think we would want a few states joining us that would end up being half the country by population?

Yes. But I think that you might be right that the average American doesn't want to be part of a parliamentary democracy/constitutional monarchy.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #113 on: January 12, 2022, 06:31:03 PM »
I agree that no one ever asks the Canadians about it, but do you really think that they would turn down all the tech on the West Coast if given the option to acquire it into the tax base?

I don't know. That's why it is important to ask. They may value their culture more than they want money - West Coast will change culture drastically. It may not even be Canada anymore.

Canadian mustachians? Any opinion?

There's a Canadian culture now???

US melting pot versus Canadian cultural mosaic. Peace order and good government versus life liberty and the pursuit of happiness.  Government as bogey versus government is our servant.  Education (including cost).  Health care.  Mon pays c'est l'hiver.  Plus a whole bunch of things we don't notice until we lose them, like the IISD Experimental Lakes Area.  As I have said elsewhere, how Canadian to get all upset about the Long Form Census - but a lot of people did.

Plus remember our history - we started Confederation because the US was just out of the Civil War, had an army, and was looking northward.  That was after being invaded twice*. There is a built in wariness of the giant to the south.

*We all do know our history enough to recognize these events, eh?

RetiredAt63

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #114 on: January 12, 2022, 06:41:36 PM »
A civil war is far less likely than the west cost and north east splitting off to join canada. In which case there may be some economic warfare but armed conflict within the US as a civil war? No way.

California and New York combined would be a pretty decent country on their own from an economic perspective.

New York would theoretically work since it shares a border with Canada.  But California is a bit far away.

But really, please stop talking about joining Canada.  Our political philosophies* and ways of doing things are really quite dissimilar.  Plus given we are 38 million, do you really think we would want a few states joining us that would end up being half the country by population?

*Seriously, you have no idea.  Our NDP would blow your minds.
Also, monarchy.

W (mostly) are OK with the monarchy as long as it is the Queen.  But there is a discussion starting about going to the GG as head of state once she dies, there is no fondness for Charles.  Barbados just got rid of the monarchy . We do like the Commonwealth but we don't need the monarchy for that.

Actually, apart from being a parliamentary democracy, we do run elections very differently.  Independent bodies to run elections, get voters registered (registration is incredibly easy), set riding boundaries (local residents get input).  Plus all those parties!!!!  Just think, in the present House of Commons there are 159 Liberals, 119 Conservatives, 25 NDP, 32 Bloc Quebecois, 2 Green and 1 Independent.  Where else do you find a separatist party with that many seats in the national legislative body?

GuitarStv

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #115 on: January 12, 2022, 06:56:01 PM »
I agree that no one ever asks the Canadians about it, but do you really think that they would turn down all the tech on the West Coast if given the option to acquire it into the tax base?

I don't know. That's why it is important to ask. They may value their culture more than they want money - West Coast will change culture drastically. It may not even be Canada anymore.

Canadian mustachians? Any opinion?

There's a Canadian culture now???

US melting pot versus Canadian cultural mosaic. Peace order and good government versus life liberty and the pursuit of happiness.  Government as bogey versus government is our servant.  Education (including cost).  Health care.  Mon pays c'est l'hiver.  Plus a whole bunch of things we don't notice until we lose them, like the IISD Experimental Lakes Area.  As I have said elsewhere, how Canadian to get all upset about the Long Form Census - but a lot of people did.

Plus remember our history - we started Confederation because the US was just out of the Civil War, had an army, and was looking northward.  That was after being invaded twice*. There is a built in wariness of the giant to the south.

*We all do know our history enough to recognize these events, eh?

If it wasn't for those heritage moments commercials, the average Canadian wouldn't be able to identify any Canadian culture beyond maple syrup, hockey, and correct pronunciation of about.

maizefolk

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #116 on: January 12, 2022, 07:00:42 PM »
Actually, apart from being a parliamentary democracy, we do run elections very differently.  Independent bodies to run elections, get voters registered (registration is incredibly easy), set riding boundaries (local residents get input).  Plus all those parties!!!!  Just think, in the present House of Commons there are 159 Liberals, 119 Conservatives, 25 NDP, 32 Bloc Quebecois, 2 Green and 1 Independent.  Where else do you find a separatist party with that many seats in the national legislative body?

What about the SNP in the UK? In the last three elections they've held anywhere from 35-56 seats, so more seats in absolute terms than Bloc Quebecois although I think probably smaller in percentage terms since the UK house of commons is a larger body than the Canadian equivalent.

scottish

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #117 on: January 12, 2022, 07:12:47 PM »
I agree that no one ever asks the Canadians about it, but do you really think that they would turn down all the tech on the West Coast if given the option to acquire it into the tax base?

I don't know. That's why it is important to ask. They may value their culture more than they want money - West Coast will change culture drastically. It may not even be Canada anymore.

Canadian mustachians? Any opinion?

There's a Canadian culture now???

US melting pot versus Canadian cultural mosaic. Peace order and good government versus life liberty and the pursuit of happiness.  Government as bogey versus government is our servant.  Education (including cost).  Health care.  Mon pays c'est l'hiver.  Plus a whole bunch of things we don't notice until we lose them, like the IISD Experimental Lakes Area.  As I have said elsewhere, how Canadian to get all upset about the Long Form Census - but a lot of people did.

Plus remember our history - we started Confederation because the US was just out of the Civil War, had an army, and was looking northward.  That was after being invaded twice*. There is a built in wariness of the giant to the south.

*We all do know our history enough to recognize these events, eh?

If it wasn't for those heritage moments commercials, the average Canadian wouldn't be able to identify any Canadian culture beyond maple syrup, hockey, and correct pronunciation of about.

Yeah there would be lots of downside to integrating chunks of the US.    On the other hand, we could regain some of the technology prowess that has been gradually fading away over the last 60 odd years.    Just think, MIT, Stanford UC Berkeley, CMU, Harvard and what's the one in Ithaca?  Cornell?     Plus Boston Dynamics - everybody gets a 'Spot'!

Also, we can't live on oil, gas, maple syrup and real estate forever.

seattlecyclone

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #118 on: January 12, 2022, 07:18:30 PM »
Actually, apart from being a parliamentary democracy, we do run elections very differently.  Independent bodies to run elections, get voters registered (registration is incredibly easy), set riding boundaries (local residents get input).  Plus all those parties!!!!  Just think, in the present House of Commons there are 159 Liberals, 119 Conservatives, 25 NDP, 32 Bloc Quebecois, 2 Green and 1 Independent.  Where else do you find a separatist party with that many seats in the national legislative body?

What about the SNP in the UK? In the last three elections they've held anywhere from 35-56 seats, so more seats in absolute terms than Bloc Quebecois although I think probably smaller in percentage terms since the UK house of commons is a larger body than the Canadian equivalent.

That was my first thought as well. In addition to the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Sinn Fein also tend to win a couple of seats.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #119 on: January 12, 2022, 07:31:40 PM »
Actually, apart from being a parliamentary democracy, we do run elections very differently.  Independent bodies to run elections, get voters registered (registration is incredibly easy), set riding boundaries (local residents get input).  Plus all those parties!!!!  Just think, in the present House of Commons there are 159 Liberals, 119 Conservatives, 25 NDP, 32 Bloc Quebecois, 2 Green and 1 Independent.  Where else do you find a separatist party with that many seats in the national legislative body?

What about the SNP in the UK? In the last three elections they've held anywhere from 35-56 seats, so more seats in absolute terms than Bloc Quebecois although I think probably smaller in percentage terms since the UK house of commons is a larger body than the Canadian equivalent.

That was my first thought as well. In addition to the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Sinn Fein also tend to win a couple of seats.

Isn't it amazing how flexible the Parliamentary system is?  Having multiple parties gives lots of room for different positions.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #120 on: January 12, 2022, 07:45:44 PM »
It seems like a lot of those on the left think that the world is crumbling around them and somehow the right is gaining power - with a Democratic President and majority in Congress, left-leaning media, academia, massive support from tech companies (who essentially control the distribution of media/information), etc. Even big business, historically a Republican stronghold, now seems more concerned with supporting left-leaning causes and virtue signaling about the latest social issue than turning a profit.

The media as a whole is left-leaning only when looking from the right. CNN, NBC, and ABC are pretty much dead center. MSNBC leans left - about the only one. There is no Fox of the Left - exactly not one major channel is working to move viewers further left, as Fox does to push viewers right. There is no collaboration between CNN or MSNBC and Biden similar to one between Fox and Trump. Mainstream media appears left-leaning only as much as the right's beliefs are now in direct contradiction with observable reality (2020 election, Covid, and climate change are best examples).

Same with business. It didn't leave the GOP - the GOP left it when it left reality. Climate change is the prime example. Business can't afford to ignore it anymore. Inaction became too damn expensive.

Academia leans left, no question. It's power is overstated - if the divide is by education, then people with college degrees lose.

Facebook - the biggest and baddest of social media companies - is lead by a person who personally intervenes to bend policies to benefit the Right. Google, whose motto once was "do no evil", couldn't resist its algorithms moving people so far right that they become literal Nazis.

So yes, it does feel like the back is against the wall.
 

I think we're just going to have to agree to disagree here.

Could you elaborate?

I could. But I've let this thread soak up enough time the last couple of days so I'm going to step away.

seattlecyclone

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #121 on: January 12, 2022, 08:50:04 PM »
Actually, apart from being a parliamentary democracy, we do run elections very differently.  Independent bodies to run elections, get voters registered (registration is incredibly easy), set riding boundaries (local residents get input).  Plus all those parties!!!!  Just think, in the present House of Commons there are 159 Liberals, 119 Conservatives, 25 NDP, 32 Bloc Quebecois, 2 Green and 1 Independent.  Where else do you find a separatist party with that many seats in the national legislative body?

What about the SNP in the UK? In the last three elections they've held anywhere from 35-56 seats, so more seats in absolute terms than Bloc Quebecois although I think probably smaller in percentage terms since the UK house of commons is a larger body than the Canadian equivalent.

That was my first thought as well. In addition to the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Sinn Fein also tend to win a couple of seats.

Isn't it amazing how flexible the Parliamentary system is?  Having multiple parties gives lots of room for different positions.

I'm not sure I can identify something about a parliament in particular that leads to multiple parties represented. Something like Germany or some other European countries where you vote for a party directly and the representation is determined proportional to the number of votes per party I can see very well why you get different results than the US. However from a purely mechanical perspective the elections look very similar between the US and Canada/UK: the nation is divided up into some number of districts of similar population, and each district elects one individual by first-past-the-post plurality vote. Canada and the UK both have two very dominant national parties just as the US does. The difference is that other parties make it in much more frequently. They have regional parties that don't even try to build a nationwide party apparatus yet do very well in their regions (Bloc Quebecois, SNP, etc.), and national third parties that have historically been more successful than their counterparts in the US.

The game theory math of first-past-the-post voting sort of points toward a two-party system coalescing eventually, because if you know there are two candidates at the head of the pack your interests are likely to be better represented if you vote for your favorite out of those two instead of voting for a minor candidate who has no chance. That doesn't mean the two parties need to be the same across the nation though! The SNP has made itself into one of the major parties in Scotland and the Conservatives don't compete very well there, as one example. I could certainly see some sort of farther-left socialist/urbanist party rising to eclipse the Republicans as the top contender against the Democrats for seats in blue areas, or a farther right-wing party becoming a more credible challenger to Republicans in red areas. Historically such parties have certainly occurred in the US with some limited short-term electoral success, but they tend to be absorbed into one or the other side of the two-party coalition before long. And coalitions they really are. Our Democrats would be maybe two or three separate parties if we were in Germany, and the same can be said about the Republicans. While in other countries they explicitly renegotiate alliances between these factions every election, they stick together longer under one umbrella here in the US.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #122 on: January 12, 2022, 09:15:37 PM »
I'm not sure I can identify something about a parliament in particular that leads to multiple parties represented. Something like Germany or some other European countries where you vote for a party directly and the representation is determined proportional to the number of votes per party I can see very well why you get different results than the US. However from a purely mechanical perspective the elections look very similar between the US and Canada/UK: the nation is divided up into some number of districts of similar population, and each district elects one individual by first-past-the-post plurality vote. Canada and the UK both have two very dominant national parties just as the US does. The difference is that other parties make it in much more frequently. They have regional parties that don't even try to build a nationwide party apparatus yet do very well in their regions (Bloc Quebecois, SNP, etc.), and national third parties that have historically been more successful than their counterparts in the US.

The game theory math of first-past-the-post voting sort of points toward a two-party system coalescing eventually, because if you know there are two candidates at the head of the pack your interests are likely to be better represented if you vote for your favorite out of those two instead of voting for a minor candidate who has no chance. That doesn't mean the two parties need to be the same across the nation though! The SNP has made itself into one of the major parties in Scotland and the Conservatives don't compete very well there, as one example. I could certainly see some sort of farther-left socialist/urbanist party rising to eclipse the Republicans as the top contender against the Democrats for seats in blue areas, or a farther right-wing party becoming a more credible challenger to Republicans in red areas. Historically such parties have certainly occurred in the US with some limited short-term electoral success, but they tend to be absorbed into one or the other side of the two-party coalition before long. And coalitions they really are. Our Democrats would be maybe two or three separate parties if we were in Germany, and the same can be said about the Republicans. While in other countries they explicitly renegotiate alliances between these factions every election, they stick together longer under one umbrella here in the US.

Sure, lots of varying forms of government have more than 2 parties.  Now I am wondering if the US is unusual in democracies in only having 2 parties - because really the fringe parties don't get seats much.  The thing is, in Parliament to get a majority a party has to resonate with a lot of voters.   If it doesn't, the party with the most seats forms a minority government, and it needs the support of at least one other party or it's bills won't pass.  For us, a budget vote that doesn't pass is a vote of no confidence and the government is over - so though we have a maximum period of time between elections, we have no minimum.  Technically the Governor General could ask the leader of the party with the second most number of seats to form a government, but in practice it means an election.  That is where we are now, in our second minority government, elections in 2019 and 2021.

We are still first-past-the post, although there have been discussions about changing it.  It does hurt - for example, I know lots of people in my riding who voted Liberal even though they would have preferred to vote NDP or Green, because they didn't want to split the vote and let the Conservative candidate win.  In other ridings it may be a different party's candidate who benefits.  In Quebec, the Bloc goes up and down depending on how pissed off voters are with the other parties.  So although that dynamic does happen, the end result depends on the riding.  The Bloc only runs candidates in Quebec (obviously) but we have had 3, sometimes 4, federal parties for a long time.  So first past the post doesn't mean a country has to end up with only 2 parties.

Not a political scientist at all, just an observer of Canadian politics, so that was pretty superficial.

alm0stk00l

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #123 on: January 13, 2022, 01:31:17 AM »
It seems like a lot of those on the left think that the world is crumbling around them and somehow the right is gaining power - with a Democratic President and majority in Congress, left-leaning media, academia, massive support from tech companies (who essentially control the distribution of media/information), etc. Even big business, historically a Republican stronghold, now seems more concerned with supporting left-leaning causes and virtue signaling about the latest social issue than turning a profit.

The media as a whole is left-leaning only when looking from the right. CNN, NBC, and ABC are pretty much dead center. MSNBC leans left - about the only one. There is no Fox of the Left - exactly not one major channel is working to move viewers further left, as Fox does to push viewers right. There is no collaboration between CNN or MSNBC and Biden similar to one between Fox and Trump. Mainstream media appears left-leaning only as much as the right's beliefs are now in direct contradiction with observable reality (2020 election, Covid, and climate change are best examples).

Same with business. It didn't leave the GOP - the GOP left it when it left reality. Climate change is the prime example. Business can't afford to ignore it anymore. Inaction became too damn expensive.

Academia leans left, no question. It's power is overstated - if the divide is by education, then people with college degrees lose.

Facebook - the biggest and baddest of social media companies - is lead by a person who personally intervenes to bend policies to benefit the Right. Google, whose motto once was "do no evil", couldn't resist its algorithms moving people so far right that they become literal Nazis.

So yes, it does feel like the back is against the wall.
 

I think we're just going to have to agree to disagree here.

Could you elaborate?

I could. But I've let this thread soak up enough time the last couple of days so I'm going to step away.

Ahh... so you can't. Not because you are incapable, but because you don't want to. However, taking time for yourself is important and you deserve to decompress. Enjoy the next conversation that becomes part of your day. :)

former player

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #124 on: January 13, 2022, 02:18:56 AM »
A civil war is far less likely than the west cost and north east splitting off to join canada. In which case there may be some economic warfare but armed conflict within the US as a civil war? No way.

California and New York combined would be a pretty decent country on their own from an economic perspective.

New York would theoretically work since it shares a border with Canada.  But California is a bit far away.

But really, please stop talking about joining Canada.  Our political philosophies* and ways of doing things are really quite dissimilar.  Plus given we are 38 million, do you really think we would want a few states joining us that would end up being half the country by population?

*Seriously, you have no idea.  Our NDP would blow your minds.
Also, monarchy.

W (mostly) are OK with the monarchy as long as it is the Queen.  But there is a discussion starting about going to the GG as head of state once she dies, there is no fondness for Charles.  Barbados just got rid of the monarchy . We do like the Commonwealth but we don't need the monarchy for that.

Actually, apart from being a parliamentary democracy, we do run elections very differently.  Independent bodies to run elections, get voters registered (registration is incredibly easy), set riding boundaries (local residents get input).  Plus all those parties!!!!  Just think, in the present House of Commons there are 159 Liberals, 119 Conservatives, 25 NDP, 32 Bloc Quebecois, 2 Green and 1 Independent.  Where else do you find a separatist party with that many seats in the national legislative body?
I see your 32 Bloc Quebecois and riase you 45 Scottish Nationalists.

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #125 on: January 13, 2022, 06:54:16 AM »
A civil war is far less likely than the west cost and north east splitting off to join canada. In which case there may be some economic warfare but armed conflict within the US as a civil war? No way.

California and New York combined would be a pretty decent country on their own from an economic perspective.

New York would theoretically work since it shares a border with Canada.  But California is a bit far away.

But really, please stop talking about joining Canada.  Our political philosophies* and ways of doing things are really quite dissimilar.  Plus given we are 38 million, do you really think we would want a few states joining us that would end up being half the country by population?

*Seriously, you have no idea.  Our NDP would blow your minds.
Also, monarchy.

W (mostly) are OK with the monarchy as long as it is the Queen.  But there is a discussion starting about going to the GG as head of state once she dies, there is no fondness for Charles.  Barbados just got rid of the monarchy . We do like the Commonwealth but we don't need the monarchy for that.

Actually, apart from being a parliamentary democracy, we do run elections very differently.  Independent bodies to run elections, get voters registered (registration is incredibly easy), set riding boundaries (local residents get input).  Plus all those parties!!!!  Just think, in the present House of Commons there are 159 Liberals, 119 Conservatives, 25 NDP, 32 Bloc Quebecois, 2 Green and 1 Independent.  Where else do you find a separatist party with that many seats in the national legislative body?
I see your 32 Bloc Quebecois and riase you 45 Scottish Nationalists.

LOL.  What are the Americans thinking reading this?  That we are all insane?

Of course Scotland was an independent country for centuries, the UK isn't named the United Kingdom for nothing.  Quebec was a French colony, then a British colony, then a founding part of the new country of Canada.  So more like Ireland than Scotland.   

GodlessCommie

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #126 on: January 13, 2022, 08:03:01 AM »
If it wasn't for those heritage moments commercials, the average Canadian wouldn't be able to identify any Canadian culture beyond maple syrup, hockey, and correct pronunciation of about.

I'm afraid that the things are not much better South of your border.

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #127 on: January 13, 2022, 08:16:41 AM »
Back to the topic as it was started, one (although imperfect) analogy I can come up with is the Troubles in Ireland. The main difference, of course, is that there will be no external force here. But neighbor hates a neighbor, paramilitaries, collusion between security forces and one side of the conflict are very much in the cards. And also the level of violence - terrible by the standards of normal times, but still low enough to be able to adjust to and continue to function. Although, again, I don't expect the anti-authoritarian side to put up much of a fight.

sonofsven

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #128 on: January 13, 2022, 08:34:15 AM »
No, I haven't done anything "special"; this intimidating rhetoric from the right has been a constant for the past forty years, if not longer (I've only been paying attention for forty years), so I just tune it out .
I don't plan on being forced out or anything like that.
Also, I have to laugh a bit about all the points about leftists "not fighting back", the majority of "leftists" I know are well armed, some expressly to protect themselves from the "gun nutz".
Irony, still undefeated.

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #129 on: January 13, 2022, 09:38:11 AM »

Also, I have to laugh a bit about all the points about leftists "not fighting back", the majority of "leftists" I know are well armed, some expressly to protect themselves from the "gun nutz".
Irony, still undefeated.

:agrees in Smith & Wesson:

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #130 on: January 13, 2022, 09:42:46 AM »
Also, I have to laugh a bit about all the points about leftists "not fighting back", the majority of "leftists" I know are well armed, some expressly to protect themselves from the "gun nutz".

Real socialists have Kalashnikovs. But I don't have them to fight back against the "gun nutz," I have them to seize the means of production.

GuitarStv

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #131 on: January 13, 2022, 09:50:46 AM »
Also, I have to laugh a bit about all the points about leftists "not fighting back", the majority of "leftists" I know are well armed, some expressly to protect themselves from the "gun nutz".

Real socialists have Kalashnikovs. But I don't have them to fight back against the "gun nutz," I have them to seize the means of production.

I think you mean 'liberate from the bourgeoise capitalists' not 'seize', right comrade?

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #132 on: January 13, 2022, 10:03:16 AM »
I think you mean 'liberate from the bourgeoise capitalists' not 'seize', right comrade?

Absolutely not! The Revolution will not tiptoe around sharp angles. "Rob what's been robbed from us" (грабь награбленное) is a perfectly acceptable - even required - framing.

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #133 on: January 13, 2022, 10:04:59 AM »

Right-wingers are collectivists who quickly respond to calls to organize.

On the other hand, the definition of the modern left-winger is extreme individualism.


Interesting analysis. I disagree in general, but interesting nonetheless.


As someone on the right (albeit more libertarian and far less enamored of the Republican party, et al) I see far more individualism on the right and collectivism on the left. Organization occurs across the political spectrum and in general has gotten much harder over the years as there is less cultural and societal cohesiveness (see the 2000 book: Bowling Alone). A lot of people will complain on the internet but actually getting hundreds or thousands of people to show up in person or dedicate real time to an organization is very difficult. It doesn't matter if that organization is trying to advocate for or against a left-wing or right-wing issue. Civic engagement in general is far less than it was in decades past.

As someone who no longer respects either party in the USA I think that the left was about individualism during say The Enlightenment. It was all about how you could disagree and have the free exchange of ideas. Now (in the USA) it appears to be about wokeism. Which yea, seems pretty collective today.

We have to be careful to watch what people are actually doing rather than what people are saying on the internet. 1,000,000 memes plus 500k clicks of the "like" button matter less than one real world group of a dozen people physically meeting every weekend and planning activities to further their civic agenda. Some people may disagree, and my response is that your Facebook petitions don't actually go anywhere either. Political power is for those who show up, cooperate, and organize IRL. If skeptical, find me an exception to this rule (something bigger than the latest media frenzy that won't result in anything).

In reality, anti-abortion protesters take shifts to show up to the clinic every single day and have formed a little community around this activity, and the pro-choice side musters a relatively small annual event where almost everyone there is a stranger to each other. People who like guns have shooting clubs, ranges, hunting clubs, gun shows, and entire industries/professions - the gun control movement meanwhile is kind of a mail-us-your-money lobbyist operation. IRL, right-wing milita are training in every state every weekend, but there is no such thing as a formal antifa meetup with more than a handful of friends present, nor is there an "antifa" organization to join. It's nothing more than a hashtag. The truth is, you'd be hard pressed to find - even in cities - a cohesive community of left-wingers that has been around 10+ years coordinating their activities at the same level of organization as a single right-wing church, of which there are tens of thousands. Such a creature may exist somewhere, but even if you did find it you'd have to pass dozens of pro-Trump, anti-BLM, anti-abortion, pro-gun, anti-tax, anti-science evangelical churches to get there.

BTW, Bowling Alone was a great book. I don't know how the author didn't assign more causation to the rise of electronic media, and our behavior of spending more and more time over the decades staring at screens, even up to 1999. That time came from somewhere. It came out of the time people used to spend building communities. FWIW, my conservative friends are constantly talking about things they did while my liberal friends are constantly talking about things they watched.

This is 180 degrees from accurate. Off the top of my head, I can think of three things that prove the effectiveness and scope of liberal organizing and influence.
2013 Susan J. Komen decided to stop making an an $800,000 annual grant to a few Planned Parenthood affiliates.  PP parlayed that 'loss' into millions in new donations. Komen's reputation and donation level never recovered. 
2018  Pride is now a corporate sponsored event.  Brick & mortar locations as well as social media emblazoned with rainbow flags and support for Pride.  A CrossFit franchise owner who declined to have a Pride-themed exercise class loses his business and his job. 
2020  Black Lives Matter takes in hundreds of millions in corporate donations.  By 2021, Anti-racism training is part of every major corporate training policy, including the US Military.  Critical Race Theory incorporated into nearly every single school curriculum.  Every subject, every school, every level of education. This didn't happen overnight with the murder of an unarmed Black man. Andrew Sullivan noted in 2018 that "we're all on campus now" as college campus activism was, by then, quite mainstream.

Each of these were decades in the making.  People who care about human rights have been active in every corner; within institutions, organizations, academia and the corporate world.  That a movement seemed inevitable, like the right thing to do or just business-as-usual is even further testament to the breadth and depth of the organizing that has taken place over the past half century.  That your liberal friends can sit and watch is evidence of just how powerful liberal activism has already been.  You can do nothing and it's still happening.

GuitarStv

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #134 on: January 13, 2022, 10:39:58 AM »
I think you mean 'liberate from the bourgeoise capitalists' not 'seize', right comrade?

Absolutely not! The Revolution will not tiptoe around sharp angles. "Rob what's been robbed from us" (грабь награбленное) is a perfectly acceptable - even required - framing.

But as property ownership is a capitalist myth, surely the concept of theft, robbery, and seizure is also invalid?

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #135 on: January 13, 2022, 01:24:45 PM »
Back to the topic as it was started, one (although imperfect) analogy I can come up with is the Troubles in Ireland. The main difference, of course, is that there will be no external force here. But neighbor hates a neighbor, paramilitaries, collusion between security forces and one side of the conflict are very much in the cards. And also the level of violence - terrible by the standards of normal times, but still low enough to be able to adjust to and continue to function. Although, again, I don't expect the anti-authoritarian side to put up much of a fight.

I don't know if I hope that you are wrong or I hope you are right. But some of the obvious differences are that:
1. Everyone with an Irish or UK passport was free to live and work in either, during a US Troubles most Americans will have no where to escape to.
2. The PIRA had support from (some) Irish Americans and Muammar Gaddafi.
3. The UDA more of less had support from the UK government.
4. Ireland helped broker the Good Friday Agreement.
5. They had centuries of animosity beforehand.
6. Religious differences.

Obvious similarities include the fact that The Troubles started with unapologetic gerrymandered which lead to undemocratic rule.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2022, 01:26:16 PM by PDXTabs »

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #136 on: January 13, 2022, 01:57:38 PM »
While eating my lunch I read WSJ: We Need to Think the Unthinkable About Our Country which is written by two former National Security Council staffers, one Republican and one Democratic administration. Basically, dismissing the worst case scenario as unlikely is not helpful and not how we avoided nuclear armageddon during the cold war.

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #137 on: January 13, 2022, 02:06:25 PM »
But as property ownership is a capitalist myth, surely the concept of theft, robbery, and seizure is also invalid?

Not to get too far into anarcho-communist philosophy that I'm only vaguely versed in, "to seize" means "to take possession of". That's different than capital ownership. In specific it is different than a capitalist who could own a factory that he has never even set foot in. He owns the factory, but in no way does he posses it to an anarcho-communist.

GodlessCommie

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #138 on: January 13, 2022, 02:24:12 PM »
5. They had centuries of animosity beforehand.
6. Religious differences.

See? Very similar!

In seriousness, I just poorly expressed a poorly thought out idea. Which was this: the level of violence that seems likely to me is similar to Ireland, but not to Balkans. Some other parallels exist.

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #139 on: January 13, 2022, 02:38:00 PM »
In seriousness, I just poorly expressed a poorly thought out idea. Which was this: the level of violence that seems likely to me is similar to Ireland, but not to Balkans. Some other parallels exist.

To the extent that it got me thinking it was a valuable though. I'm fascinated in the collapse of societies but I think that it is like market timing: you never know when it is going to happen. Even when you do see it coming it is hard to get anyone to listen to you because it goes against the status quo. With that said, I don't think we know if it will be Ireland or Balkan level until we try.

former player

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #140 on: January 13, 2022, 02:41:05 PM »
In seriousness, I just poorly expressed a poorly thought out idea. Which was this: the level of violence that seems likely to me is similar to Ireland, but not to Balkans. Some other parallels exist.

To the extent that it got me thinking it was a valuable though. I'm fascinated in the collapse of societies but I think that it is like market timing: you never know when it is going to happen. Even when you do see it coming it is hard to get anyone to listen to you because it goes against the status quo. With that said, I don't think we know if it will be Ireland or Balkan level until we try.
There are already plenty of examples of threats and violence against election workers, elected officials and Democratic party workers and offices.  The trying has already started.

GuitarStv

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #141 on: January 13, 2022, 02:47:30 PM »
But as property ownership is a capitalist myth, surely the concept of theft, robbery, and seizure is also invalid?

Not to get too far into anarcho-communist philosophy that I'm only vaguely versed in, "to seize" means "to take possession of". That's different than capital ownership. In specific it is different than a capitalist who could own a factory that he has never even set foot in. He owns the factory, but in no way does he posses it to an anarcho-communist.

I don't follow the distinction.  Merriam-Webster defines possession as "the condition of having or owning something".  Not sure how the owner of a factory could also not possess it.

But this is a point that has always confused me about communism.  In pure end-game communism there isn't any ownership/possession . . . everything is shared and controlled by the state.  So theft between people would be impossible - nobody owns anything to steal.

PDXTabs

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #142 on: January 13, 2022, 02:54:11 PM »
I don't follow the distinction.  Merriam-Webster defines possession as "the condition of having or owning something".  Not sure how the owner of a factory could also not possess it.

But this is a point that has always confused me about communism.  In pure end-game communism there isn't any ownership/possession . . . everything is shared and controlled by the state.  So theft between people would be impossible - nobody owns anything to steal.

The key word here is having.

I strongly suggest that you read more communist and anarcho-communist philosophy. If you think that the state still exists in the end game, go back a read it again. The whole point is to move past the state even existing. As much as I don't actually think that will ever happen. The dominant party of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics calling themselves The Communist Party of the Soviet Union was a misnomer. They weren't communists at all. In my opinion Marx even predicted their failure before they even existed: because Marx wrote that you couldn't force the transition from feudalism to capitalism to socialism to communism. It is an organic process.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2022, 02:56:26 PM by PDXTabs »

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #143 on: January 13, 2022, 03:04:08 PM »
In seriousness, I just poorly expressed a poorly thought out idea. Which was this: the level of violence that seems likely to me is similar to Ireland, but not to Balkans. Some other parallels exist.

To the extent that it got me thinking it was a valuable though. I'm fascinated in the collapse of societies but I think that it is like market timing: you never know when it is going to happen. Even when you do see it coming it is hard to get anyone to listen to you because it goes against the status quo. With that said, I don't think we know if it will be Ireland or Balkan level until we try.
There are already plenty of examples of threats and violence against election workers, elected officials and Democratic party workers and offices.  The trying has already started.

Let's hope that we don't get to the firebombing schools and shooting young people in the street for going to the wrong bar steps.

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #144 on: January 13, 2022, 03:35:01 PM »
I don't follow the distinction.  Merriam-Webster defines possession as "the condition of having or owning something".  Not sure how the owner of a factory could also not possess it.

But this is a point that has always confused me about communism.  In pure end-game communism there isn't any ownership/possession . . . everything is shared and controlled by the state.  So theft between people would be impossible - nobody owns anything to steal.

The key word here is having.

I strongly suggest that you read more communist and anarcho-communist philosophy. If you think that the state still exists in the end game, go back a read it again. The whole point is to move past the state even existing. As much as I don't actually think that will ever happen. The dominant party of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics calling themselves The Communist Party of the Soviet Union was a misnomer. They weren't communists at all. In my opinion Marx even predicted their failure before they even existed: because Marx wrote that you couldn't force the transition from feudalism to capitalism to socialism to communism. It is an organic process.

I'll believe in withering of the state only when I see it - and not before.  :P

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #145 on: January 13, 2022, 03:43:51 PM »
Back to the topic as it was started, one (although imperfect) analogy I can come up with is the Troubles in Ireland. The main difference, of course, is that there will be no external force here. But neighbor hates a neighbor, paramilitaries, collusion between security forces and one side of the conflict are very much in the cards. And also the level of violence - terrible by the standards of normal times, but still low enough to be able to adjust to and continue to function. Although, again, I don't expect the anti-authoritarian side to put up much of a fight.

Funny, I just read the book Say Nothing (https://www.amazon.com/Say-Nothing-Murder-Northern-Ireland/dp/0385521316), and I was thinking the same thing.  That is our future in the U.S.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #146 on: January 13, 2022, 04:53:49 PM »
I just read an article about Sidney Poitier and Harry Belafonte taking cash from a fundraiser to civil rights activists in Mississippi, way back when.  They almost got killed by the KKK. So civil rights fights and violence have been around for a while.  Wow those 2 men had conviction, and guts.

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #147 on: January 13, 2022, 07:25:28 PM »

Right-wingers are collectivists who quickly respond to calls to organize.

On the other hand, the definition of the modern left-winger is extreme individualism.


Interesting analysis. I disagree in general, but interesting nonetheless.


As someone on the right (albeit more libertarian and far less enamored of the Republican party, et al) I see far more individualism on the right and collectivism on the left. Organization occurs across the political spectrum and in general has gotten much harder over the years as there is less cultural and societal cohesiveness (see the 2000 book: Bowling Alone). A lot of people will complain on the internet but actually getting hundreds or thousands of people to show up in person or dedicate real time to an organization is very difficult. It doesn't matter if that organization is trying to advocate for or against a left-wing or right-wing issue. Civic engagement in general is far less than it was in decades past.

As someone who no longer respects either party in the USA I think that the left was about individualism during say The Enlightenment. It was all about how you could disagree and have the free exchange of ideas. Now (in the USA) it appears to be about wokeism. Which yea, seems pretty collective today.

We have to be careful to watch what people are actually doing rather than what people are saying on the internet. 1,000,000 memes plus 500k clicks of the "like" button matter less than one real world group of a dozen people physically meeting every weekend and planning activities to further their civic agenda. Some people may disagree, and my response is that your Facebook petitions don't actually go anywhere either. Political power is for those who show up, cooperate, and organize IRL. If skeptical, find me an exception to this rule (something bigger than the latest media frenzy that won't result in anything).

In reality, anti-abortion protesters take shifts to show up to the clinic every single day and have formed a little community around this activity, and the pro-choice side musters a relatively small annual event where almost everyone there is a stranger to each other. People who like guns have shooting clubs, ranges, hunting clubs, gun shows, and entire industries/professions - the gun control movement meanwhile is kind of a mail-us-your-money lobbyist operation. IRL, right-wing milita are training in every state every weekend, but there is no such thing as a formal antifa meetup with more than a handful of friends present, nor is there an "antifa" organization to join. It's nothing more than a hashtag. The truth is, you'd be hard pressed to find - even in cities - a cohesive community of left-wingers that has been around 10+ years coordinating their activities at the same level of organization as a single right-wing church, of which there are tens of thousands. Such a creature may exist somewhere, but even if you did find it you'd have to pass dozens of pro-Trump, anti-BLM, anti-abortion, pro-gun, anti-tax, anti-science evangelical churches to get there.

BTW, Bowling Alone was a great book. I don't know how the author didn't assign more causation to the rise of electronic media, and our behavior of spending more and more time over the decades staring at screens, even up to 1999. That time came from somewhere. It came out of the time people used to spend building communities. FWIW, my conservative friends are constantly talking about things they did while my liberal friends are constantly talking about things they watched.

This is 180 degrees from accurate. Off the top of my head, I can think of three things that prove the effectiveness and scope of liberal organizing and influence.
2013 Susan J. Komen decided to stop making an an $800,000 annual grant to a few Planned Parenthood affiliates.  PP parlayed that 'loss' into millions in new donations. Komen's reputation and donation level never recovered. 
2018  Pride is now a corporate sponsored event.  Brick & mortar locations as well as social media emblazoned with rainbow flags and support for Pride.  A CrossFit franchise owner who declined to have a Pride-themed exercise class loses his business and his job. 
2020  Black Lives Matter takes in hundreds of millions in corporate donations.  By 2021, Anti-racism training is part of every major corporate training policy, including the US Military.  Critical Race Theory incorporated into nearly every single school curriculum.  Every subject, every school, every level of education. This didn't happen overnight with the murder of an unarmed Black man. Andrew Sullivan noted in 2018 that "we're all on campus now" as college campus activism was, by then, quite mainstream.

Each of these were decades in the making.  People who care about human rights have been active in every corner; within institutions, organizations, academia and the corporate world.  That a movement seemed inevitable, like the right thing to do or just business-as-usual is even further testament to the breadth and depth of the organizing that has taken place over the past half century.  That your liberal friends can sit and watch is evidence of just how powerful liberal activism has already been.  You can do nothing and it's still happening.

I disagree about CRT being in every school - it's actually being banned by multiple states, which is to say students in the future will learn less about the civil rights movement and modern thought on it than students in the past. Frederick Douglas could be banned next. IDK about military training, but I do know the police and military are highly infiltrated by white supremacists. The FBI knows it too.

I hear this sort of cherry-picking of wins a lot. It's often done by liberals who want to argue that their mode of operation is not a losing strategy. They argue it is possible for liberals to "sit and watch" and "do nothing" and the wins will inevitably come all on their own because demographic destiny, because the courts will save us, or because everyone in their blue enclave thinks the R's are nuts. No amount of losses seem able to challenge this entrenched idea, because in the end hyper-individualism is about letting somebody else do the hard work of making collective structures like government function.

But Democrats are objectively in decline. The scoreboard reads as follows:

*30 state legislatures are Republican-controlled, vs. 17 Democrat-controlled and 3 split.
*6/3 control of the Supreme Court by Republican nominees.
*Majority of state governor offices in Republican hands.
*Republicans successfully pass gerrymandering laws to make most state and federal seats Republican locks, even if D's win the popular vote.
*Joe Biden has a 42.4% approval rating, and the R's are well-positioned to retake Congress in this year's elections. If that happens, Biden could be impeached for whatever reason before the end of his term.
*Fox News remains America's most popular news network.

On single issue topics:

*Roe v. Wade will be effectively overturned within the next few months. Abortion has been effectively regulated out of existence in many states within the past 20 years anyway. A nationwide ban could occur within the Biden presidency if the R's win enough seats to override a veto.
*The gun control movement is in reverse, with open carry laws expanding across multiple states.
*Nearly 0% chance of expanding access to healthcare in the next 3+ years.
*Nearly 0% chance of immigration legislation in the next 3+ years.
*Voting rights legislation has a near-zero chance of passing before the midterms, and an even lower chance than that.
*Police reform legislation " " " " " " " "" " "
*Significant climate change legislation " " " " " " " "

Interestingly, 100% of the actual win examples mentioned above are cases where a tiny percentage of liberals formed organizations with features such as memberships, dues, executive leadership roles, committees, organizational infrastructure, local meetings, recruitment of new members, and most importantly the opportunity to build a social life around the creation of meaningful impact. That's how the civil rights movement achieved its successes too.

My whole point is that Democrats could win if they did these things consistently, and actually participated in the grass roots. Instead there's this emphasis on fundraising and electronic advertising, which are important, but in the absence of grass roots communities it leaves the party with the appearance of a media company supported by the rich, ironically enough. Until Democrats snap out of their denial and look at the actual, objective scoreboard, the losses will continue.

maizefolk

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #148 on: January 13, 2022, 07:49:59 PM »
*Roe v. Wade will be effectively overturned within the next few months. Abortion has been effectively regulated out of existence in many states within the past 20 years anyway. A nationwide ban could occur within the Biden presidency if the R's win enough seats to override a veto.

In order to be able to override a presidential veto the republicans would need to flip 17 democratically held seats in the senate. However, are only 14 democratic senators up for re-election between now and the end of Biden's term and that includes elections in states like Hawaii where Biden beat Trump by 30+% in 2020.

Realistically a disaster of an election for the democrats would mean losing at most five seats in 2022. If I turn my head and squint are another 12 seats the republicans could maybe win in 2024 if that was also a complete disaster of a year for the democrats. But if anything even close to that happens in 2024 there's no realistic way Biden would have won reelection, so at that point the republicans being able to override a veto would be a moot point.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Are you preparing for the next U.S. civil war and autocratic rule?
« Reply #149 on: January 13, 2022, 08:11:24 PM »
*Roe v. Wade will be effectively overturned within the next few months. Abortion has been effectively regulated out of existence in many states within the past 20 years anyway. A nationwide ban could occur within the Biden presidency if the R's win enough seats to override a veto.

In order to be able to override a presidential veto the republicans would need to flip 17 democratically held seats in the senate. However, are only 14 democratic senators up for re-election between now and the end of Biden's term and that includes elections in states like Hawaii where Biden beat Trump by 30+% in 2020.

Realistically a disaster of an election for the democrats would mean losing at most five seats in 2022. If I turn my head and squint are another 12 seats the republicans could maybe win in 2024 if that was also a complete disaster of a year for the democrats. But if anything even close to that happens in 2024 there's no realistic way Biden would have won reelection, so at that point the republicans being able to override a veto would be a moot point.

If (and hopefully when) Roe v. Wade is overturned, it will mean a return to state's deciding if abortion is legal. Not a complete ban. The whole basis of abortion being a right based on the 4th amendment (privacy) was always a terrible legal precedent - no matter which side of the issue you're on.  "The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated....." it took a lot of convoluted logic to get from there to a right to end a human life.