It occurred to me just now that Mayor Pete is both, I believe, under 40 and gay, so if one multiplies those two factors, he would have a ceiling of about 54%. And note that the way the poll question is worded, it's an otherwise qualified person of your own party.
Sanders' two factors (over 70, socialist), means he's looking at a ceiling in the Democratic party of 29%. That's miserably low.
Note that multiplying the two factors isn't accurate though, as any two factors are not likely to be fully independent statistically.
I also just noticed that all five top Democrat candidates have (at least) two factors on the list:
Biden - Catholic, over 70
Sanders - socialist, over 70
Warren - woman, over 70
Harris - woman, black
Buttegieg - gay, under 40
Hmm.
Probably makes sense to look at the crosstab by party (despite what people may say abstractly in a survey): due to how polarized the political arena is currently, people who identify with a party will very likely disregard other "disqualifying" features in practice; for (Democrats, independents, Republicans) the percentages are:
gay: (83%, 82%, 61%)
under 40: (78%, 71%, 65%)
socialist: (74%, 49%, 19%)
over 70: (65%, 62%, 63%)
That results in the following minimum "ceilings" by party affiliation:
Pete: (65%, 58%, 40%)
Sanders: (48%, 30%, 12%) -- Sanders vs. Pete: (-17%, -18%, -28%)
Of course, Sanders doesn't fare better in these traits among independents and is much worse among Republicans, assuming the overlap of survey participants finding his pair of traits "negative" is not greatly in excess of Pete's. It should also be noted Sanders will be
79 years old on election day, and according to an actuarial table I found on the Internet
TM, would have ~27% chance of dying between now and the end of his first term. For comparison, at age 74, Trump's 5 year odds are 19%, and Biden's 76 puts him at 22%.
By the way, Pete's book
The Shortest Way Home is a fascinating read (at least with respect to its subtext), written with a "Spock-like detachment" according to the New York Review of Books. You
can judge it by
its cover: note the matching of colors between shirt and sky and between the tie and building--and he's
literally rolling up his sleeves! Inside, his account of his life history reads mostly like a political resume starter-kit: High School class president, Harvard, intern for Ted Kennedy, grassroots campaign work for John Kerry and Obama, learn how the "real world" works by working in retail (well, more like retail analytics consulting work via McKinsey), get a brief tour of duty under the belt in the US Navy Reserve, be pulled into politics for selfless/idealistic reasons, become Mayor Pete, passive-aggressively reach across the aisle and get along with state governor Mike Pence, write a humble-brag book to coincide with the launch of your Presidential campaign... He would probably be a much more boring candidate if not for his being young and gay.
For the other candidates, being a woman, black, or Catholic is not nearly as bad as the four traits above (all >=90% for all affiliations). Though if I was Trump facing Harris, I would just play the clip from the 2nd debate of
Mommy disemboweling Harris on an infinite loop (probably in slow motion when Harris lowers her head--such bad body language in her reaction!). I predict "Joe30330.com" Biden is going to score too many own-goals to limp across the line intact. My money is still on Warren getting the nomination.