Author Topic: 2020 POTUS Candidates  (Read 278226 times)

nereo

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2850 on: April 07, 2020, 06:46:05 PM »
For a different perspective, I know a lot of people for win Houses was their first choice.
This might be geographic - I grew up in DC, a city that is 55% black and heavily democratic, but also largely working class. He has been viewed as a strong democratic candidate for decades, and still is thought that way.

Not my first pick either, but not an accident

maizeman

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2851 on: April 07, 2020, 07:35:52 PM »
It's almost like this is a super shitty way to pick a nominee.

I don't necessarily disagree,* but what method of picking a nominee would you propose instead?

*I think the sole reason Biden is not the presumptive nominee is because people were so afraid of Sanders getting it and/or afraid of a brokered convention they lined up with whoever seemed most likely to stop him and it.

Not allowing three small states to determine who remains to run for the rest of the primary season. The memes that point out that the "racially diverse and tolerant Democratic Party chose two old white guys to represent them" bugs me because the Party didn't choose them and the population as a whole didn't choose them. Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina did.

Biden lost all three of the first states to vote.

American GenX

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2852 on: April 07, 2020, 07:43:19 PM »
Uhh Schultz already tried pushing a candidacy and he couldn't get through an interview without saying something stupid. He has even less credibility or experience to run country than Bloomberg and that went nowhere. I don't see how anywhere near a majority of people would come out to vote for Schultz.

I've yet to see an interview yet where Biden can make through a complete thought. And the thoughts that he does present are weak. When people in 2016 were saying that a rock would have beat Trump and Hillary, well, I guess they got their choice this time around.

There was a lot of talk about using the 25th to remove Trump early on in his presidency. I honestly don't see how we make it through a Biden presidency without him dying or being declared mentally unwell. It could be that the DNC's strategy here is to have a strong young VP that ends up taking on more of the speeches, interviews, and addresses. A VP who ends up more as an acting-President and basically guides Biden's hand. That's the only way I see Biden working.

It amazes me that somehow Biden flopped out of the primaries as the leader, with so many incredible options available at the outset.  I don't know if I met one single person that actually had Biden as their top choice heading into the primaries... and yet here he is at #1.  I think Warren would be a super strong candidate right now in light of all the things happening.

Considering the other candidates that ran, I'm not surprised at all to see Biden coming out on top.  There were only a couple others I liked besides Biden, but they were never strong contenders.   Go Biden!

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2853 on: April 07, 2020, 07:56:38 PM »
It's almost like this is a super shitty way to pick a nominee.

I don't necessarily disagree,* but what method of picking a nominee would you propose instead?

*I think the sole reason Biden is not the presumptive nominee is because people were so afraid of Sanders getting it and/or afraid of a brokered convention they lined up with whoever seemed most likely to stop him and it.

Not allowing three small states to determine who remains to run for the rest of the primary season. The memes that point out that the "racially diverse and tolerant Democratic Party chose two old white guys to represent them" bugs me because the Party didn't choose them and the population as a whole didn't choose them. Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina did.

Biden lost all three of the first states to vote.

How many candidates dropped out due to those first 3 or 4 primaries? Growing up in a Super Tuesday state I always felt cheated that the herd had been culled before I got a say.

maizeman

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2854 on: April 07, 2020, 08:25:17 PM »
How many candidates dropped out due to those first 3 or 4 primaries? Growing up in a Super Tuesday state I always felt cheated that the herd had been culled before I got a say.

I think just Bennet and Yang.

Everyone else either dropped out well before Iowa because they couldn't raise any money and had terrible national polling numbers or dropped out right before or after Super Tuesday when it became apparent that Biden was going to/had carried the majority of Super Tuesday states.

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2855 on: April 08, 2020, 09:29:42 AM »
CNN reporting Sanders dropping out.

YttriumNitrate

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2856 on: April 08, 2020, 09:31:40 AM »
How many candidates dropped out due to those first 3 or 4 primaries? Growing up in a Super Tuesday state I always felt cheated that the herd had been culled before I got a say.
I think just Bennet and Yang.

I think you're right if we're talking about the first 3, but Klobuchar and Buttigieg dropped out after the 4th and before Super Tuesday.

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2857 on: April 08, 2020, 09:34:07 AM »
CNN reporting Sanders dropping out.
Shamed into it by the shambles in Wisconsin would be my guess.

YttriumNitrate

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2858 on: April 08, 2020, 09:39:44 AM »
It seems like nothing short of hospitalization will stand in the way of a Biden nomination

I agree that with two mid/late 70s candidates and a pandemic going around, hospitalization is going to be the wild card for both parties.

If one of the younger candidates (i.e., 38-year-old Buttigieg) were to contract the virus and quickly recover, that could really position him well to take over if 77-year-old Biden gets hooked up to a ventilator for a week.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2859 on: April 08, 2020, 09:51:58 AM »
I'm surprised Sanders isn't staying in. What does he have to lose? It's not like he is going to lose his next reelection in Vermont if people get mad he stayed in all the way to the convention. This is probably his last chance to run too. There's still a chance that the sexual assault allegations against Biden gain more traction - or that he gets sick and dies (though Sanders is probably at a higher risk all things considered).

Two months ago I'd say Trump had a fairly good chance to win just given how weak a candidate Biden is. With COVID-19 it's hard to say how it will all shake out.

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2860 on: April 08, 2020, 10:25:41 AM »
CNN reporting Sanders dropping out.
Shamed into it by the shambles in Wisconsin would be my guess.

Wait... I must be particularly dense today. Can you connect the dots for me on this?

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2861 on: April 08, 2020, 10:30:05 AM »
CNN reporting Sanders dropping out.
Shamed into it by the shambles in Wisconsin would be my guess.

Wait... I must be particularly dense today. Can you connect the dots for me on this?
er, pushing forward with unwinnable elections in the time of the virus?  Diverting money and work and safety?

Also keeping a divided opposition to Trump in play for months, of course, rather than having an united opposition.

nereo

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2862 on: April 08, 2020, 10:30:47 AM »
I'm surprised Sanders isn't staying in. What does he have to lose? It's not like he is going to lose his next reelection in Vermont if people get mad he stayed in all the way to the convention. This is probably his last chance to run too. There's still a chance that the sexual assault allegations against Biden gain more traction - or that he gets sick and dies (though Sanders is probably at a higher risk all things considered).

Two months ago I'd say Trump had a fairly good chance to win just given how weak a candidate Biden is. With COVID-19 it's hard to say how it will all shake out.

I'm still not convinced that Biden is a 'weak' candidate - can you elaborate?  I feel like this is largely the result of effective propaganda from his opponents (i.e. Fox News and right-wing talking-heads).  They repetatively dismiss  the presumptive nominee to be "weak" among an "uninspiring field" and repeat ad nauseam. Pepper in a bunch of psuedo-commentary about 'mental stability' and 'coginative decline'.  It then becomes reflexive, and even more centrist people start talking about it.  It was very effective at HRC.

Whether you like or dislike Biden I don't see him as a 'weak' or 'unqualified' candidate. Three decades in the senate shows some political prowess (he was re-elected four times) and chaired a number of committees. It's very well you might disagree with his politics or style - but it just seems like we are parroting what Trump and his allies are saying ('Sleepy Joe' - "Obviously a dementia patient")

FWIW I've watched his videos and seen him speak twice in person.  I frankly haven't seen much to have me question his lucidity.  A national campaign where you are expected to interact and field questions on everything, at any time, to anyone is enough to make even the brightest fumble and seem confused at times.  BUt unlike DJT his briefings have shown me that he's at least in possession of the basic facts of COVID.

YttriumNitrate

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2863 on: April 08, 2020, 10:52:30 AM »
I'm still not convinced that Biden is a 'weak' candidate - can you elaborate?
Here's my list of his weaknesses as a candidate:
  • Home state isn't a swing state
  • 25+ years older than any Democrat to win in modern history
  • Ukrainian payments to his son look bad -- even if there was nothing illegal -- and lessen the impact of Trump's impeachment
  • Long time politician (it's hard to be the candidate of Hope and Change when you were a Senator before many/most voters were alive)
  • White
  • Iraq war vote

Kris

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2864 on: April 08, 2020, 10:53:23 AM »
I'm surprised Sanders isn't staying in. What does he have to lose? It's not like he is going to lose his next reelection in Vermont if people get mad he stayed in all the way to the convention. This is probably his last chance to run too. There's still a chance that the sexual assault allegations against Biden gain more traction - or that he gets sick and dies (though Sanders is probably at a higher risk all things considered).

Two months ago I'd say Trump had a fairly good chance to win just given how weak a candidate Biden is. With COVID-19 it's hard to say how it will all shake out.

I'm still not convinced that Biden is a 'weak' candidate - can you elaborate?  I feel like this is largely the result of effective propaganda from his opponents (i.e. Fox News and right-wing talking-heads).  They repetatively dismiss  the presumptive nominee to be "weak" among an "uninspiring field" and repeat ad nauseam. Pepper in a bunch of psuedo-commentary about 'mental stability' and 'coginative decline'.  It then becomes reflexive, and even more centrist people start talking about it.  It was very effective at HRC.

Whether you like or dislike Biden I don't see him as a 'weak' or 'unqualified' candidate. Three decades in the senate shows some political prowess (he was re-elected four times) and chaired a number of committees. It's very well you might disagree with his politics or style - but it just seems like we are parroting what Trump and his allies are saying ('Sleepy Joe' - "Obviously a dementia patient")

FWIW I've watched his videos and seen him speak twice in person.  I frankly haven't seen much to have me question his lucidity.  A national campaign where you are expected to interact and field questions on everything, at any time, to anyone is enough to make even the brightest fumble and seem confused at times.  BUt unlike DJT his briefings have shown me that he's at least in possession of the basic facts of COVID.

To me, it just reminds me how highly suggestible people are. Repetition of an idea will take anchor in people's brains, until they've been won over to it without really even realizing how it happened. And then, before you know it, people are nodding in agreement at the "obvious" thing everyone swears is as plain as the nose on one's face...

jim555

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2865 on: April 08, 2020, 10:56:50 AM »
Biden is so weak and bad, haha.  Sour grapes from the losing side.

Kris

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2866 on: April 08, 2020, 11:08:30 AM »
I'm still not convinced that Biden is a 'weak' candidate - can you elaborate?
Here's my list of his weaknesses as a candidate:
  • Home state isn't a swing state
  • 25+ years older than any Democrat to win in modern history
  • Ukrainian payments to his son look bad -- even if there was nothing illegal -- and lessen the impact of Trump's impeachment
  • Long time politician (it's hard to be the candidate of Hope and Change when you were a Senator before many/most voters were alive)
  • White
  • Iraq war vote

I mean, to be fair... Almost all of those could be leveled at Bernie. His home state is not a swing state, he's old, he's a long-time politician (sure, he's an Independent, but frankly, his record in Congress is not amazing in terms of legislation he's been responsible for), he's white.

The Hunter Biden thing is largely manufactured outrage by the opposition. Especially when one looks at any charge of nepotism compared to the Trump administration.

The Iraq War vote is legitimate. But it's also something that almost everyone who was in Congress at that time could be accused of. Sadly. That was one of the things I always loved about Obama. It didn't make him that much more effective at getting us out of conflicts, though, in the end.


YttriumNitrate

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2867 on: April 08, 2020, 11:15:24 AM »
I mean, to be fair... Almost all of those could be leveled at Bernie.

Indeed, but I don't think Bernie would have been a strong candidate either.

J Boogie

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2868 on: April 08, 2020, 11:16:04 AM »
I'm surprised Sanders isn't staying in. What does he have to lose? It's not like he is going to lose his next reelection in Vermont if people get mad he stayed in all the way to the convention. This is probably his last chance to run too. There's still a chance that the sexual assault allegations against Biden gain more traction - or that he gets sick and dies (though Sanders is probably at a higher risk all things considered).

Two months ago I'd say Trump had a fairly good chance to win just given how weak a candidate Biden is. With COVID-19 it's hard to say how it will all shake out.

I'm still not convinced that Biden is a 'weak' candidate - can you elaborate?  I feel like this is largely the result of effective propaganda from his opponents (i.e. Fox News and right-wing talking-heads).  They repetatively dismiss  the presumptive nominee to be "weak" among an "uninspiring field" and repeat ad nauseam. Pepper in a bunch of psuedo-commentary about 'mental stability' and 'coginative decline'.  It then becomes reflexive, and even more centrist people start talking about it.  It was very effective at HRC.

Whether you like or dislike Biden I don't see him as a 'weak' or 'unqualified' candidate. Three decades in the senate shows some political prowess (he was re-elected four times) and chaired a number of committees. It's very well you might disagree with his politics or style - but it just seems like we are parroting what Trump and his allies are saying ('Sleepy Joe' - "Obviously a dementia patient")

FWIW I've watched his videos and seen him speak twice in person.  I frankly haven't seen much to have me question his lucidity.  A national campaign where you are expected to interact and field questions on everything, at any time, to anyone is enough to make even the brightest fumble and seem confused at times.  BUt unlike DJT his briefings have shown me that he's at least in possession of the basic facts of COVID.

I like Biden and other than, off the top of my head, 2 things for me (his role in pressuring our allies not to offer Snowden Asylum when he was VP and his recent false claim that the US was offered WHO test kits and rejected them), I really want to vote for him to get rid of Trump.

But I am not understanding how people are not seeing how he is becoming less and less coherent.

If we were to use empirical data of how frequently he makes sentences that have a beginning and an end, as opposed to ones that kind of trail off into other thoughts, I think we'd see that his sentence completion percentage has declined significantly over the past 4 years and has accelerated recently.

Also, this is someone who is certainly no stranger to running for president and speaking publicly. He always has made funny gaffes (sort of a like a GW Bush) but I'm speaking of his declining ability to complete thoughts.

FIPurpose

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2869 on: April 08, 2020, 11:25:07 AM »
CNN reporting Sanders dropping out.
Shamed into it by the shambles in Wisconsin would be my guess.

Wait... I must be particularly dense today. Can you connect the dots for me on this?
er, pushing forward with unwinnable elections in the time of the virus?  Diverting money and work and safety?

Also keeping a divided opposition to Trump in play for months, of course, rather than having an united opposition.

There were other elections happening in Wisconsin beyond the primary. The governor tried to delay, but was denied by both their GOP legislature and GOP supreme court. They wanted to move ahead with the election in order to suppress the vote and keep their majority. Wisconsin's election had nothing to do with Bernie, and Bernie dropping out would not have stopped the election from happening.

If anything, Bernie staying in might have helped swing the Wisconsin state politics.

Wolfpack Mustachian

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2870 on: April 08, 2020, 11:28:18 AM »
CNN reporting Sanders dropping out.
Shamed into it by the shambles in Wisconsin would be my guess.

Wait... I must be particularly dense today. Can you connect the dots for me on this?
er, pushing forward with unwinnable elections in the time of the virus?  Diverting money and work and safety?

Also keeping a divided opposition to Trump in play for months, of course, rather than having an united opposition.

There were other elections happening in Wisconsin beyond the primary. The governor tried to delay, but was denied by both their GOP legislature and GOP supreme court. They wanted to move ahead with the election in order to suppress the vote and keep their majority. Wisconsin's election had nothing to do with Bernie, and Bernie dropping out would not have stopped the election from happening.

If anything, Bernie staying in might have helped swing the Wisconsin state politics.

Why do you think he dropped out then. It seemed really odd to me.

FIPurpose

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2871 on: April 08, 2020, 11:37:59 AM »
CNN reporting Sanders dropping out.
Shamed into it by the shambles in Wisconsin would be my guess.

Wait... I must be particularly dense today. Can you connect the dots for me on this?
er, pushing forward with unwinnable elections in the time of the virus?  Diverting money and work and safety?

Also keeping a divided opposition to Trump in play for months, of course, rather than having an united opposition.

There were other elections happening in Wisconsin beyond the primary. The governor tried to delay, but was denied by both their GOP legislature and GOP supreme court. They wanted to move ahead with the election in order to suppress the vote and keep their majority. Wisconsin's election had nothing to do with Bernie, and Bernie dropping out would not have stopped the election from happening.

If anything, Bernie staying in might have helped swing the Wisconsin state politics.

Why do you think he dropped out then. It seemed really odd to me.

Plenty of reasons:

Pretty much all of the remaining primaries delayed to June, basically extending the life of the campaign. But with COVID-19, he has a lot of work as a Senator to do.

Bernie may have been given something in some agreement recently with the DNC.

Covid-19 limits his ability to campaign and run his strategy of door knocking and holding rallies. Meaning that his campaign was weakened by Covid-19. So right now might be his peak strength for bartering with Biden and the DNC.

Kris

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2872 on: April 08, 2020, 11:40:50 AM »
CNN reporting Sanders dropping out.
Shamed into it by the shambles in Wisconsin would be my guess.

Wait... I must be particularly dense today. Can you connect the dots for me on this?
er, pushing forward with unwinnable elections in the time of the virus?  Diverting money and work and safety?

Also keeping a divided opposition to Trump in play for months, of course, rather than having an united opposition.

There were other elections happening in Wisconsin beyond the primary. The governor tried to delay, but was denied by both their GOP legislature and GOP supreme court. They wanted to move ahead with the election in order to suppress the vote and keep their majority. Wisconsin's election had nothing to do with Bernie, and Bernie dropping out would not have stopped the election from happening.

If anything, Bernie staying in might have helped swing the Wisconsin state politics.

Why do you think he dropped out then. It seemed really odd to me.

Plenty of reasons:

Pretty much all of the remaining primaries delayed to June, basically extending the life of the campaign. But with COVID-19, he has a lot of work as a Senator to do.

Bernie may have been given something in some agreement recently with the DNC.

Covid-19 limits his ability to campaign and run his strategy of door knocking and holding rallies. Meaning that his campaign was weakened by Covid-19. So right now might be his peak strength for bartering with Biden and the DNC.

Yeah, basically this is how I'm seeing it, too.

Wrenchturner

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2873 on: April 08, 2020, 11:45:17 AM »
What happens if Trump and Biden both contract COVID before the summer's over? 

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2874 on: April 08, 2020, 11:48:00 AM »
What happens if Trump and Biden both contract COVID before the summer's over?

Knowing our luck trump will probably somehow come out stronger on the other side while Biden will be full-lame and the DNC will have to scramble to find a new candidate, or hopefully he has a strong VP pick by then.

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2875 on: April 08, 2020, 11:49:21 AM »
BernieBros have one million excuses.  The real reason he flopped is his policy is out of line with what mainline Democrats believe.  Biden didn't even spend much or have great rallies, and he still whooped him.  His policies are more in line with the Socialist Worker's Party.

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2876 on: April 08, 2020, 11:49:48 AM »
CNN reporting Sanders dropping out.
Shamed into it by the shambles in Wisconsin would be my guess.

Wait... I must be particularly dense today. Can you connect the dots for me on this?
er, pushing forward with unwinnable elections in the time of the virus?  Diverting money and work and safety?

Also keeping a divided opposition to Trump in play for months, of course, rather than having an united opposition.

There were other elections happening in Wisconsin beyond the primary. The governor tried to delay, but was denied by both their GOP legislature and GOP supreme court. They wanted to move ahead with the election in order to suppress the vote and keep their majority. Wisconsin's election had nothing to do with Bernie, and Bernie dropping out would not have stopped the election from happening.

If anything, Bernie staying in might have helped swing the Wisconsin state politics.

Why do you think he dropped out then. It seemed really odd to me.

Plenty of reasons:

Pretty much all of the remaining primaries delayed to June, basically extending the life of the campaign. But with COVID-19, he has a lot of work as a Senator to do.

Bernie may have been given something in some agreement recently with the DNC.

Covid-19 limits his ability to campaign and run his strategy of door knocking and holding rallies. Meaning that his campaign was weakened by Covid-19. So right now might be his peak strength for bartering with Biden and the DNC.

Ah, didn't think about the present climate being especially hard on Bernie's style of campaigning. That makes sense. Either way, it's a good point. With everything going on now, momentum is probably everything since you don't have to do as much, just ride the wave.

YttriumNitrate

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2877 on: April 08, 2020, 11:55:48 AM »
BernieBros have one million excuses.  The real reason he flopped is his policy is out of line with what mainline Democrats believe.  Biden didn't even spend much or have great rallies, and he still whooped him.  His policies are more in line with the Socialist Worker's Party.

I'd also add that Biden seems to be much better at working his rivals than Sanders. Getting Buttigieg and Klobuchar to drop out and endorse him after just a single primary win was a master stroke. Had Sanders been able to move Warren out of the race earlier, things could have been quite different.

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2878 on: April 08, 2020, 11:58:29 AM »
BernieBros have one million excuses.  The real reason he flopped is his policy is out of line with what mainline Democrats believe.  Biden didn't even spend much or have great rallies, and he still whooped him.  His policies are more in line with the Socialist Worker's Party.

I'd also add that Biden seems to be much better at working his rivals than Sanders. Getting Buttigieg and Klobuchar to drop out and endorse him after just a single primary win was a master stroke. Had Sanders been able to move Warren out of the race earlier, things could have been quite different.
The AOC/Bernie wing is only 30%, they just don't have the numbers.  He never had a chance.

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2879 on: April 08, 2020, 11:59:57 AM »
BernieBros have one million excuses.  The real reason he flopped is his policy is out of line with what mainline Democrats believe.  Biden didn't even spend much or have great rallies, and he still whooped him.  His policies are more in line with the Socialist Worker's Party.

I'd also add that Biden seems to be much better at working his rivals than Sanders. Getting Buttigieg and Klobuchar to drop out and endorse him after just a single primary win was a master stroke. Had Sanders been able to move Warren out of the race earlier, things could have been quite different.

You're right. Bernie never made the "pivot" to being the front-runner. After he had momentum from NH and NV, he needed to start appealing to the Center more and coalescing the ideas in Buttigieg's campaign. Bernie should have tried to bring in Buttigieg earlier. (he may have tried and failed)

There was also the problem of Warren who was both branded as a solid "liberal", but also took waaay too many pot shots at Bernie for no good reason. It made both of them look unlikable.

nereo

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2880 on: April 08, 2020, 12:01:10 PM »
I'm still not convinced that Biden is a 'weak' candidate - can you elaborate?
Here's my list of his weaknesses as a candidate:
  • Home state isn't a swing state
  • 25+ years older than any Democrat to win in modern history
  • Ukrainian payments to his son look bad -- even if there was nothing illegal -- and lessen the impact of Trump's impeachment
  • Long time politician (it's hard to be the candidate of Hope and Change when you were a Senator before many/most voters were alive)
  • White
  • Iraq war vote

Fair enough, but I'd argue half of things you personally don't like in a candidate, rather than a 'weakness'.  And as Kris noted, Bernie checks off many of those boxes too.  And Warren. 
Of presidents from post WWII, only a few were from 'battleground states' during their election.  Trump didn't even carry his (then) home state, and many opponents also lost theirs. For whatever reason we seem to be in an 'age of septuagenarians+ when it comes to national politics.  Not just Biden or Trump, but also Pelosi (80), McConnel (78), Sanders (70), Warren (70)... roughly a third of the senate is over 70, and there's quite a few who are 80+ (Grassley, Feinstein, Pelosi, Shelby, Roberts, Leahy). Etc.  And of course white rich people remain over represented.

To be clear I'm not arguing for a white 70+ male president... good lord I think we'ce had enough of them for a generation.  Just that the knee-jerk reaction that "Biden is so weak as a candidate!"  and then the justification for why rarely makes much political sense, given who we repeatedly elect in this country.  It seems the strongest generic candidate remains the White Male over 65.

maizeman

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2881 on: April 08, 2020, 12:03:26 PM »
How many candidates dropped out due to those first 3 or 4 primaries? Growing up in a Super Tuesday state I always felt cheated that the herd had been culled before I got a say.
I think just Bennet and Yang.

I think you're right if we're talking about the first 3, but Klobuchar and Buttigieg dropped out after the 4th and before Super Tuesday.

You are right they both dropped out and endorsed Biden before the Super Tuesday states voted.

Personally, I don't think they dropped out because of their showing in South Carolina. At least I remember the narrative at the time being that they dropped out right before Super Tuesday either because they didn't want to split the non-Sanders vote and/or were pressured by the party to drop out before Super Tuesday to not split the Sanders vote.

But I certainly acknowledge knowing for certain what lead to their decision would require some sort of mind reading technology. So someone else could look at the same series of events and decide that South Carolina did get a significant say in deciding which candidates would be available for later states to vote for.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2882 on: April 08, 2020, 01:40:47 PM »
I'm surprised Sanders isn't staying in. What does he have to lose? It's not like he is going to lose his next reelection in Vermont if people get mad he stayed in all the way to the convention. This is probably his last chance to run too. There's still a chance that the sexual assault allegations against Biden gain more traction - or that he gets sick and dies (though Sanders is probably at a higher risk all things considered).

Two months ago I'd say Trump had a fairly good chance to win just given how weak a candidate Biden is. With COVID-19 it's hard to say how it will all shake out.

I'm still not convinced that Biden is a 'weak' candidate - can you elaborate?  I feel like this is largely the result of effective propaganda from his opponents (i.e. Fox News and right-wing talking-heads).  They repetatively dismiss  the presumptive nominee to be "weak" among an "uninspiring field" and repeat ad nauseam. Pepper in a bunch of psuedo-commentary about 'mental stability' and 'coginative decline'.  It then becomes reflexive, and even more centrist people start talking about it.  It was very effective at HRC.

Whether you like or dislike Biden I don't see him as a 'weak' or 'unqualified' candidate. Three decades in the senate shows some political prowess (he was re-elected four times) and chaired a number of committees. It's very well you might disagree with his politics or style - but it just seems like we are parroting what Trump and his allies are saying ('Sleepy Joe' - "Obviously a dementia patient")

FWIW I've watched his videos and seen him speak twice in person.  I frankly haven't seen much to have me question his lucidity.  A national campaign where you are expected to interact and field questions on everything, at any time, to anyone is enough to make even the brightest fumble and seem confused at times.  BUt unlike DJT his briefings have shown me that he's at least in possession of the basic facts of COVID.

Here is why I think Joe Biden is a weak candidate.

* Multiple unsuccessful presidential campaigns (1988 and 2008)
* Placed poorly in the first three states despite having the best name recognition of all the candidates in the field
* Has a history of saying stupid/ridiculous things (obviously this is something people have mostly stopped caring about from politicians)
* Does not really have anything inspiring or notable about him - just the next establishment candidate in line who finally got his turn
* Long history of votes in the Senate that can be held against him
* His son getting rich off his dad's name and potential influence peddling - will certainly come up in the general election
* Sexual assault allegations and a history of generally acting creepy towards women (lots of touching and standing uncomfortably close)
* No meaningful connection to a swing state that could provide some advantage - albeit that's true of Sanders and Trump as well

Bateaux

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2883 on: April 08, 2020, 01:52:14 PM »
My idols are dead and my enemies are in power.  I can't vote for Biden.

Kris

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2884 on: April 08, 2020, 02:03:18 PM »
At this point, we get either Trump or Biden in November.

I cannot tolerate Trump's administration of criminals and incompetents.

Therefore, I vote for Biden.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2885 on: April 08, 2020, 02:15:29 PM »
At this point, we get either Trump or Biden in November.

I cannot tolerate Trump's administration of criminals and incompetents.

Therefore, I vote for Biden.

I had a much easier choice last election. The former governor who I'd met and generally liked was running as a Libertarian and NM was going to go Democrat regardless.

This time around I may end up not voting for president and just vote the rest of the ballot. Biden will take the state regardless. New Mexico brief flirtation with being a swing state 15-20 years ago is long gone, along with the last Republican House Representative in the 2018 election. When a Democrat can carry the oil patch and rural southern half of the state there's no chance for Republicans.

sui generis

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2886 on: April 08, 2020, 04:14:57 PM »
My idols are dead and my enemies are in power.  I can't vote for Biden.

My idols are dead and my enemies are in power.  I can't not vote for Biden.

sui generis

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2887 on: April 08, 2020, 04:19:30 PM »
At this point, we get either Trump or Biden in November.

I cannot tolerate Trump's administration of criminals and incompetents.

Therefore, I vote for Biden.

I had a much easier choice last election. The former governor who I'd met and generally liked was running as a Libertarian and NM was going to go Democrat regardless.

This time around I may end up not voting for president and just vote the rest of the ballot. Biden will take the state regardless. New Mexico brief flirtation with being a swing state 15-20 years ago is long gone, along with the last Republican House Representative in the 2018 election. When a Democrat can carry the oil patch and rural southern half of the state there's no chance for Republicans.

I still think there is value in voting for the Democrat, even if it won't matter in your state.  Trump may win again in the EC without winning the popular vote...in fact, maybe this will be how things go mostly from now on.  But, we should make a point of how big the tide is against him.

pecunia

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2888 on: April 08, 2020, 04:59:07 PM »
Bernie dropped out.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/bernie-sanders-drops-out/index.html

I'm not too taken with Joe Biden.  Despite Trump's blunders with the virus, I think Joe will not win.

What are the third parties offering this year?

Kris

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2889 on: April 08, 2020, 05:31:46 PM »
Bernie dropped out.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/bernie-sanders-drops-out/index.html

I'm not too taken with Joe Biden.  Despite Trump's blunders with the virus, I think Joe will not win.

What are the third parties offering this year?

Not any possibility of a win against Trump, thatís for sure.

jim555

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2890 on: April 08, 2020, 09:32:46 PM »
Even if you don't like Biden allowing Trump to pack the Supreme Court for a generation should be reason enough to make sure Trump loses and Biden wins.

Little Aussie Battler

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2891 on: April 08, 2020, 09:45:32 PM »
There are lots of valid reasons why Trump shouldn't be re-elected.

Biden still needs to convince enough people to vote in order to win, and there are a number of reasons why that may not happen.

redbirdfan

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2892 on: April 08, 2020, 09:54:08 PM »
Quote
* No meaningful connection to a swing state that could provide some advantage - albeit that's true of Sanders and Trump as well

Isn't he from Scranton, Pennsylvania???? I think PA is a swing state. 

I've been for Biden the entire time bc I think he's the only candidate that can make serious strides towards national unity and whose platform isn't completely unrealistic given the current political climate.  I get all the reasons why Biden might not be the strongest candidate, but all of those reasons are more true when applied to Trump.  I hope Biden lays low, takes some debate prep lessons, puts out a few scripted speeches and wins in November.  I don't need goosebumps, I just need normalcy.  I admire Bernie's political trajectory, but he always had a firm ceiling.  Hopefully Biden doesn't feel the need to move drastically to the left.  I'd go with Whitmer or Harris for VP and get Bernie, Michelle, Barack and Mayor Pete on the campaign trail.  I don't think the Hunter Biden ammo will be very effective at this point.  For once, Biden will benefit from the whirlwind Trump news cycle bc the Hunter Biden story seems like it blew up two years ago.  If I'm Biden, I spin it to understanding what it's like to have a child w/ substance abuse problems and tie that to how he can relate to families struggling with the opioid crisis/drug addiction.  Do we have any idea what the Trump kids are doing in terms of their businesses?  I don't think they would really want to go there.  Just my $.02.  I'm ready for this presidency to be over.  Hopefully a non-sycophant Republican Party emerges from this trash heap.  I do not want 4 more years of this. 

Poundwise

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2893 on: April 08, 2020, 10:38:34 PM »
Bernie dropped out.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/bernie-sanders-drops-out/index.html

I'm not too taken with Joe Biden.  Despite Trump's blunders with the virus, I think Joe will not win.

What are the third parties offering this year?

Nooooo!  How can you even consider third party??

Even though Biden was very low on my list, and I was All In for Warren, he's the only choice we have now.  I'm ridin' with Biden.

ministashy

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2894 on: April 09, 2020, 12:10:27 AM »
I have never understood folks who want to vote third party for Presidential elections.  Local/state elections, sure, I could see a third party candidate maaaaybe making a difference here and there.  But voting third party for President is like saying you don't like either of the teams that made the Superbowl, so you're going to vote for a third team's quarterback to be on the field.  Even if by some miracle that person actually got into the game, they have no team backing them--no matter how pure/smart their intentions, they're still just going to get flattened by both sides.

Of course, by the same token I've never understood folks who refuse to vote because they 'want to send a message' to the Democrat/Republican party that they don't approve of what they're doing.  I mean, if you don't vote, then literally the only message you're sending to any politician is that they don't have to care about what you think, and DEFINITELY don't have to listen to what you want.

DarkandStormy

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2895 on: April 09, 2020, 06:31:31 AM »
BernieBros have one million excuses.  The real reason he flopped is his policy is out of line with what mainline Democrats believe.  Biden didn't even spend much or have great rallies, and he still whooped him.  His policies are more in line with the Socialist Worker's Party.

I'd also add that Biden seems to be much better at working his rivals than Sanders. Getting Buttigieg and Klobuchar to drop out and endorse him after just a single primary win was a master stroke. Had Sanders been able to move Warren out of the race earlier, things could have been quite different.

You're right. Bernie never made the "pivot" to being the front-runner. After he had momentum from NH and NV, he needed to start appealing to the Center more and coalescing the ideas in Buttigieg's campaign. Bernie should have tried to bring in Buttigieg earlier. (he may have tried and failed)

Did you pay attention to the campaign?  What makes you think Pete would have ever endorsed Bernie?

Wolfpack Mustachian

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2896 on: April 09, 2020, 07:00:14 AM »
I have never understood folks who want to vote third party for Presidential elections.  Local/state elections, sure, I could see a third party candidate maaaaybe making a difference here and there.  But voting third party for President is like saying you don't like either of the teams that made the Superbowl, so you're going to vote for a third team's quarterback to be on the field.  Even if by some miracle that person actually got into the game, they have no team backing them--no matter how pure/smart their intentions, they're still just going to get flattened by both sides.

Of course, by the same token I've never understood folks who refuse to vote because they 'want to send a message' to the Democrat/Republican party that they don't approve of what they're doing.  I mean, if you don't vote, then literally the only message you're sending to any politician is that they don't have to care about what you think, and DEFINITELY don't have to listen to what you want.

And I have never understood the line of logic you presented at least about the voting for a third party candidate. You're really telling me that you can't understand how someone could not ethically vote for either of two people given their perspective on them as people or their positions and live well with themselves afterwards? I can't understand how you can't understand that, lol.

ministashy

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2897 on: April 09, 2020, 07:12:19 AM »
I have never understood folks who want to vote third party for Presidential elections.  Local/state elections, sure, I could see a third party candidate maaaaybe making a difference here and there.  But voting third party for President is like saying you don't like either of the teams that made the Superbowl, so you're going to vote for a third team's quarterback to be on the field.  Even if by some miracle that person actually got into the game, they have no team backing them--no matter how pure/smart their intentions, they're still just going to get flattened by both sides.

Of course, by the same token I've never understood folks who refuse to vote because they 'want to send a message' to the Democrat/Republican party that they don't approve of what they're doing.  I mean, if you don't vote, then literally the only message you're sending to any politician is that they don't have to care about what you think, and DEFINITELY don't have to listen to what you want.

And I have never understood the line of logic you presented at least about the voting for a third party candidate. You're really telling me that you can't understand how someone could not ethically vote for either of two people given their perspective on them as people or their positions and live well with themselves afterwards? I can't understand how you can't understand that, lol.

I don't understand it because by voting 'ethically' for a third option, in our current system, you are simply ensuring that one of the other two 'more evil' options wins.  In which case your ethics have done nothing to actually reduce harm to others, or to try to move society to even a slightly better direction.  You threw all that away, along with any real effect your vote might have, just because you wanted to feel better about yourself.

Harm reduction is a real thing.  And the fact the people seem to think it doesn't apply to politics is honestly baffling to me.

YttriumNitrate

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2898 on: April 09, 2020, 07:21:31 AM »
I'm still not convinced that Biden is a 'weak' candidate - can you elaborate?
Here's my list of his weaknesses as a candidate:
  • Home state isn't a swing state
  • 25+ years older than any Democrat to win in modern history
  • Ukrainian payments to his son look bad -- even if there was nothing illegal -- and lessen the impact of Trump's impeachment
  • Long time politician (it's hard to be the candidate of Hope and Change when you were a Senator before many/most voters were alive)
  • White
  • Iraq war vote
Fair enough, but I'd argue half of things you personally don't like in a candidate, rather than a 'weakness'.

That's close. It's a list of things I believe other groups of people don't like in a candidate. For example, I doubt there's much overlap among the groups of people who think his Iraq war vote is a problem (probably far left) and those who think the Ukrainian payments to his son show he's as corrupt as Trump (Obama/Trump voters).

Wolfpack Mustachian

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #2899 on: April 09, 2020, 07:27:51 AM »
I have never understood folks who want to vote third party for Presidential elections.  Local/state elections, sure, I could see a third party candidate maaaaybe making a difference here and there.  But voting third party for President is like saying you don't like either of the teams that made the Superbowl, so you're going to vote for a third team's quarterback to be on the field.  Even if by some miracle that person actually got into the game, they have no team backing them--no matter how pure/smart their intentions, they're still just going to get flattened by both sides.

Of course, by the same token I've never understood folks who refuse to vote because they 'want to send a message' to the Democrat/Republican party that they don't approve of what they're doing.  I mean, if you don't vote, then literally the only message you're sending to any politician is that they don't have to care about what you think, and DEFINITELY don't have to listen to what you want.

And I have never understood the line of logic you presented at least about the voting for a third party candidate. You're really telling me that you can't understand how someone could not ethically vote for either of two people given their perspective on them as people or their positions and live well with themselves afterwards? I can't understand how you can't understand that, lol.

I don't understand it because by voting 'ethically' for a third option, in our current system, you are simply ensuring that one of the other two 'more evil' options wins.  In which case your ethics have done nothing to actually reduce harm to others, or to try to move society to even a slightly better direction.  You threw all that away, along with any real effect your vote might have, just because you wanted to feel better about yourself.

Harm reduction is a real thing.  And the fact the people seem to think it doesn't apply to politics is honestly baffling to me.

For one, a person could see the two candidates as both being so evil that the differences are indistinguishable or roughly indistinguishable, i.e. does it really matter if this one person is slightly less evil than the other, I'm still having to support an extremely evil person or person who promotes policies I find as evil. The problem with taking your assertions as immovable facts is that there would truly be no end to it. You're denigrating people taking a moral stance of not supporting someone who is really bad with dismissive phrases such as "because you wanted to feel better about yourself." I don't think you really follow through with your line of logic in everyday life, or you would be on your guard 24/7 looking to mitigate harm generally/overall (and how you would define it would be extremely challenging). Is there really nothing you ever could not bring yourself to do that would mitigate harm for others?

I understand harm reduction is a real thing. I think that you are making a big stretch to think that people think it doesn't apply to politics. If I didn't think harm reduction applied to politics, I wouldn't have voted in almost any presidential election that I have been able to vote in since I was able to vote. It's not that people that think like me don't understand harm reduction. It's that we don't deify it into the overriding moral imperative.