Author Topic: 2020 POTUS Candidates  (Read 15163 times)

Kris

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #200 on: March 11, 2019, 05:04:49 PM »
I was talking to my DH about the 2020 candidates this weekend. And there's one criterion that attracts me to Biden that no one has, that would be particularly useful in this situation.

The White House is going to be in complete and utter effing chaos when Trump leaves it. His transition team was practically nonexistent, he's got a ton of people who have no freaking idea what they're doing in important positions... just imagine what kind of shitshow the next president-elect is going to wade into. God, what a nightmare transition. Biden, unique among all the candidates, would be able to deal with that chaos and impose order, much sooner, and much more effectively.

Honestly, that's not nothing.

Psychstache

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #201 on: March 11, 2019, 05:45:35 PM »
Dang, bummed about Brown being out. Surprised about Bloomberg.

I wonder what's holding Biden back from announcing. Afraid of Bernie? Bern's raking in money and doing his thing at rallies, better announce go or no go before it's too late. Democratic party once again is jacking Bern around, once again for the fact that he's not actually a Democrat. I have a feeling 2016 is coming back to haunt Dems if Biden waits too long to go for it. Bernie's got the popular spotlight now, he's looking more and more like the lead candidate.

I assume the delay had to do with his team furiously trying to make sure they can preemptively quash all the #metoo skeletons he has in his closet.

Edit: spelling
« Last Edit: March 11, 2019, 07:22:53 PM by Psychstache »

Johnez

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #202 on: March 11, 2019, 06:16:11 PM »
I'm coming around to Biden as well.  Beating Trump in 2020 is going to be a tall order, pulling the Ds to the polls has to be top priority.  Biden, maybe Warren can accomplish this. 

 

madgeylou

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #203 on: March 11, 2019, 06:25:23 PM »
Dang, bummed about Brown being out. Surprised about Bloomberg.

I wonder what's holding Biden back from announcing. Afraid of Bernie? Bern's raking in money and doing his thing at rallies, better announce go or no go before it's too late. Democratic party once again is jacking Bern around, once again for the fact that he's not actually a Democrat. I have a feeling 2016 is coming back to haunt Dems if Biden waits too long to go for it. Bernie's got the popular spotlight now, he's looking more and more like the lead candidate.

I assume the delay had to do with his team furiously trying too make sure they can preemptively quash all the #metoo skeletons he has in his closet.

Yep. You know he has more than a few. He's one of those "extra friendly"-type dudes. I mean, I'll vote for him if he's the Democratic candidate ... shit, I'll vote for a bronze statue of The Fonz to get the Donald out ... but he is not my first choice, not at all.

That being said, I definitely count myself as part of the more progressive part of the party, and I really like what Waleed Shahid, communications director of the Justice Democrats, says at the end of this article:

When I asked Shahid if the new left movement was going to be the Democratsí version of the House Freedom Caucus, his answer was unequivocal: ďYes, it is.Ē

He had another historical example in mind, too: Thaddeus Stevens and the Radical Republicans, a group of abolitionists who stridently pushed for Lincolnís Republican Party to abolish slavery. ďPolitics is still the art of compromise, you still have to pass legislation,Ē Shahid said. ďBut the idea is on whose terms is the compromise?Ē Every transformative president, he said, had found himself pushed into radical new policies by movements. (Ocasio-Cortez said something similar in a 60 Minutes interview that aired a few weeks after Shahid and I talked.) Abraham Lincoln had the abolitionists at his throat, Franklin Roosevelt had labor unions pushing for the New Deal, and Lyndon Johnson had civil rights leaders prodding him toward reforms of racist laws.

ďMaybe we can make Joe Biden into a Lincoln,Ē he said.


If a Democrat ends up in the White House, whoever it is, I intend to push them to be bolder and more progressive than they are today.

Versatile

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #204 on: March 11, 2019, 07:46:08 PM »
Regarding Biden, I think it's the best decision the Dems can run with, especially if he chooses a respectable running mate such as Tulsi Gabbard. People will look fondly back at the Obama years if they liked him and Tulsi fits a lot of the criteria of the progressives: a fellow progressive, a woman, a person of color, and for what it's worth a Hindu. She's a veteran and handles herself very well in interviews, especially the hostile ones. Kris brings up a good point that Biden will know his way around already if he wins and I think people are tired of the drama surrounding Trump. Even if you like him it becomes exhausting staying current and people (Republicans) may want a change for that alone.


I also feel that if they nominate one of the progressives such as Bernie than they are giving it to Trump. Same with Kamala. She reminds me of Clinton, completely inauthentic. It's interesting how much backlash she has received from the Black community. Smoking weed listening to Tupac seems to approximate carrying hot sauce in her purse to a lot of people. Warren has completely played the Native American ancestry attacks incorrectly, plus she appears more of a lecturer than a leader. NOTE: this in no way insinuates that women cannot be leaders. Cory Booker, no way. All of the others don't stand out as of yet.

Is there any love for the Starbucks Man? As a person that leans conservative, fiscally this guy speaks my language. I find him refreshing when he talks dollars and cents but the mainstream seems to hate him.

Everything above is just my opinion and if I crapped on your candidate sorry.

Telecaster

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #205 on: March 12, 2019, 03:48:35 AM »

Is there any love for the Starbucks Man? As a person that leans conservative, fiscally this guy speaks my language. I find him refreshing when he talks dollars and cents but the mainstream seems to hate him.

I fucking hate him. 

Where to begin?  You know how he keeps claiming Starbucks was the "first" company to give benefits to part time employees?  That's not true, for one.  And secondly it was a union negotiated benefit for the coffee roasters.   Then he later proudly busted the union.

Later, he turned a public park into his driveway, which created so much animosity with his neighbors he had to move.  Then, he mismanaged the Sonics for four years.  Apparently, the economics were such that he was losing money and he whined to the city for a new arena.   But the Sonics had just gotten a new arena remodel ten years before.  So the taxpayers weren't totally on board with subsidizing a hobby for a billionaire and there was some hesitation.  Now, he probably could have worked something out, but instead he whined about being "disprespected" (yes, really) by the city and the fans and promptly sold the team to an out of town ownership who moved them to Oklahoma City.  Had he tried he almost certainly could have found local ownership--like Steve Balmer who later bought the Clippers for $2 billion. 

But in his apology in his book, he said he went with the out of town owners because he thought they would have a better chance of extorting the city of out some money.   Look, I enjoy professional sports and the NBA in particular, but it is entertainment.  Maybe municipalities have some obligation to provide entertainment for their citizens, but subsidizing billionaires is perhaps not the wisest use of tax dollars.  And it isn't clear to me tax payer subsidies are even necessary.  Golden State for example is building a completely privately funded arena, and there are several other privately funded arenas as well.    The economics work without the taxpayer kicking in a whole lot. 

And then finally, what is he actually for?   All he does is spout off about things he is against, and how big ideas will never work.   That's exactly what I don't want in a leader. 

talltexan

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #206 on: March 12, 2019, 05:46:49 AM »
I'm surprised to see all of the love for Biden. His window was clearly 2016. He was the VP for a fairly popular President. Losing his son was tough, and I took him sincerely when he said that was why he didn't have the emotional energy for a campaign. But the game is too merciless if you don't take your chance when the window is open. I think an incumbent Trump is much tougher to beat than 2016 Trump, because now he has a record, and--while they have a distaste for parts of his personal life--evangelicals can look at that record of judge appointments and justify to themselves continuing it.

secondcor521

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #207 on: March 12, 2019, 07:37:00 AM »
The few polls I've seen seem to indicate that over half of those polled support either Biden or Sanders.  With perhaps a dozen announced candidates, that is a fairly large proportion.  Thoughts/comments?

YttriumNitrate

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #208 on: March 12, 2019, 08:52:05 AM »
The few polls I've seen seem to indicate that over half of those polled support either Biden or Sanders.  With perhaps a dozen announced candidates, that is a fairly large proportion.  Thoughts/comments?
That tells me that those are the two candidates who have national name recognition right now. As the debates, campaigns, and primaries occur, that will change.

YttriumNitrate

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #209 on: March 12, 2019, 09:15:41 AM »
I think an incumbent Trump is much tougher to beat than 2016 Trump, because now he has a record, and--while they have a distaste for parts of his personal life--evangelicals can look at that record of judge appointments and justify to themselves continuing it.
Indeed, I think Trump is going to be very difficult to defeat in 2020. The number one reason I would give would be the economy. Whether or not they actually deserve any credit or blame for economy, presidents usually get the credit or blame at election time. As an example, in the last 100 years, no sitting president has lost their bid for reelection when the unemployment rate was below 7%. Unemployment is currently at around 4%. To unseat Trump, the Democratic ticket is going to need every advantage they can get, and nominating an old white geezer from a non-swing state isn't the best of ideas.

Versatile

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #210 on: March 12, 2019, 09:33:56 AM »

Is there any love for the Starbucks Man? As a person that leans conservative, fiscally this guy speaks my language. I find him refreshing when he talks dollars and cents but the mainstream seems to hate him.

I fucking hate him. 

Where to begin?  You know how he keeps claiming Starbucks was the "first" company to give benefits to part time employees?  That's not true, for one.  And secondly it was a union negotiated benefit for the coffee roasters.   Then he later proudly busted the union.

Later, he turned a public park into his driveway, which created so much animosity with his neighbors he had to move.  Then, he mismanaged the Sonics for four years.  Apparently, the economics were such that he was losing money and he whined to the city for a new arena.   But the Sonics had just gotten a new arena remodel ten years before.  So the taxpayers weren't totally on board with subsidizing a hobby for a billionaire and there was some hesitation.  Now, he probably could have worked something out, but instead he whined about being "disprespected" (yes, really) by the city and the fans and promptly sold the team to an out of town ownership who moved them to Oklahoma City.  Had he tried he almost certainly could have found local ownership--like Steve Balmer who later bought the Clippers for $2 billion. 

But in his apology in his book, he said he went with the out of town owners because he thought they would have a better chance of extorting the city of out some money.   Look, I enjoy professional sports and the NBA in particular, but it is entertainment.  Maybe municipalities have some obligation to provide entertainment for their citizens, but subsidizing billionaires is perhaps not the wisest use of tax dollars.  And it isn't clear to me tax payer subsidies are even necessary.  Golden State for example is building a completely privately funded arena, and there are several other privately funded arenas as well.    The economics work without the taxpayer kicking in a whole lot. 

And then finally, what is he actually for?   All he does is spout off about things he is against, and how big ideas will never work.   That's exactly what I don't want in a leader.

Interesting. I didn't know about all that.

I find his over-priced coffee distasteful as I can make a very good cup of coffee with my grinder and french press for much, much less than his store would charge. And I almost never read autobiographies as it is just a license for the author to cherry-pick.  I did watch a review of Kamala's book though and the podcaster noted that she never mentioned two things: Willie Brown or having lived in Canada during her childhood. Both would seem to be significant for a mention.

I guess what I do like about him is that he the only one that is willing to say we can't afford something instead of promising a bunch of silly concessions.  That our national debt has a cost. And that the Democrats have left a large number of their group behind, hence his independent run. And it also appears that he has done a lot for his employees in regards to education, insurance, and other benefits.

He's a mixed bag for sure.


talltexan

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #211 on: March 12, 2019, 11:26:29 AM »
Versatile--

can you go into more detail about what you feel to be the "cost" of the national debt?

Johnez

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #212 on: March 12, 2019, 11:45:53 AM »
Biden's getting closer to announcing, "top Democratic lawmaker" says he's going to run according to The Hill. I take it this is the trial balloon to see what happens.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/433659-exclusive-biden-to-run-for-white-house-says-dem-lawmaker?amp

Quote
"I'm giving it a shot," Biden said matter-of-factly during a phone call with a House Democratic lawmaker within the past week - a conversation the congressman recounted to The Hill and interpreted as a sure sign that Biden will run in 2020.

In the brief phone call, the former vice president asked if he could bounce some campaign strategy ideas off the lawmaker and invited the lawmaker to sit down with him in person in the near future. Biden also said he hoped to have the lawmaker's support, something the lawmaker did not commit to.

***

Biden did not share any details about when or where he planned to make his formal presidential announcement, the lawmaker said. Biden and his wife, Jill, just returned from vacation in St. Croix in the Caribbean, where they reportedly discussed potential pitfalls and began finalizing their plans, The Associated Press reported.

Biden spokesman Bill Russo refuted the idea that the former vice president is absolutely running: "He has not made a final decision. No change."

Johnez

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #213 on: March 12, 2019, 11:59:09 AM »
I can see Warren or Harris leveraging #metoo behind the scenes, but ultimately this is an election against Trump....and Biden isn't really the "lesser of two evils," more like an angel compared to Donald "Pussy grabber" Trump.

The economy is starting to look weaker. Trump keeps hammering away at the Fed chair, setting the groundwork for who to blame when a bad number comes up. We've got a record, yes-record- trade deficit now under Trump. What the hell happened? Trade wars aren't so easy to win after all? And then we have a pitiful jobs number, 20k? Looking like we've hit the peak of the Obama rise. I don't see the economy as Trump's strong point here. Biden was a part of the administration that saved the Auto industry, banking industry, and turned the economy around. Trump's main card is immigrants. That's it. This election is going to be uglier than the last.

« Last Edit: March 12, 2019, 12:03:29 PM by Johnez »

Versatile

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #214 on: March 12, 2019, 12:01:48 PM »
Versatile--

can you go into more detail about what you feel to be the "cost" of the national debt?

The easiest way to frame this is such:

The interest on the national debt is how much the federal government must pay on outstanding public debt each year. The current interest on the debt is $364 billion. That's from the federal budget for fiscal year 2019 (October 1, 2018, through September 30, 2019).Jan 29, 2019
Interest on the National Debt: Definition, Calculation, Effect
https://www.thebalance.com/interest-on-the-national-debt-4119024

Now this of any pet project any various group would like to push. Would $364 billion towards that goal per annum accomplish much? I would think so. It's a huge opportunity cost.

We can't default on our obligations, as that would set a chain of events into motion that would be disastrous. And likewise, we can't print our way out of this either, as that also has negative ramifications. George W was extremely negligent in this area, as well as Obama, and now it looks like Trump will do no better. Shultz has been the only one to mention it as far as I am aware.

It's basically a tax on our children with the added bonus of opportunities lost.

talltexan

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #215 on: March 12, 2019, 01:15:46 PM »
Thank you for your reply, Versatile.

The $364 billion number does indeed sound like a lot of money. But the same number was $199 billion in 1991. So over 28 years, it's barely doubled.

Over that time, the entire US economy has grown substantially, from $6,000 billion to over $18,000 billion in real output. Meanwhile, the US has provided many older investors a safe asset that has a small yield (in the form of these government bonds). Is there a debt level that would put you at greater ease?

Telecaster

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #216 on: March 12, 2019, 01:17:33 PM »
The few polls I've seen seem to indicate that over half of those polled support either Biden or Sanders.  With perhaps a dozen announced candidates, that is a fairly large proportion.  Thoughts/comments?

People have heard of Biden and Sanders. 

MayDay

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #217 on: March 13, 2019, 08:00:11 AM »
I am so uninterested in more old white men.  I will vote for whoever the D nom is unless I think they will be worse than Trump (which currently seems impossible).  But I will not be thrilled with Biden or Shouty McShoutface who only cares about free college tuition and has been a completely ineffective senator. 

Warren I like, but I think she is also too old.  So I age discriminate across all genders! 

I'm not in a hurry to worry too much about who I like at this point.  The only one I think is a real loon is Tulsi Gabbard.  More people will come in, and more info will come out about each.  I'll wait until things settle out some.  If I had to vote now, I'd pick Harris. 

I do think the candidates running on certain issues is great.  Will Inslee win? Highly unlikely.  But I'm all for him bringing climate change up and pushing the other candidates to say more. 

talltexan

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #218 on: March 13, 2019, 08:25:49 AM »
Tell me more about "too old"

MayDay

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #219 on: March 13, 2019, 08:39:39 AM »
Tell me more about "too old"

80 by the end of the 2nd term sounds about right. 


YttriumNitrate

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #220 on: March 13, 2019, 09:23:55 AM »
Tell me more about "too old"
80 by the end of the 2nd term sounds about right.
You're a lot more generous with the "too old" criteria than I am. Successful Democratic candidates tend to be younger (47, 46, 52, 43 at inauguration following first election for last four), so I put anything over 60 as being "too old" to run. I'm probably also being too generous as a 55 cut-off would be more in line with the historical trends.

Versatile

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #221 on: March 13, 2019, 10:16:37 AM »
Thank you for your reply, Versatile.

The $364 billion number does indeed sound like a lot of money. But the same number was $199 billion in 1991. So over 28 years, it's barely doubled.

Over that time, the entire US economy has grown substantially, from $6,000 billion to over $18,000 billion in real output. Meanwhile, the US has provided many older investors a safe asset that has a small yield (in the form of these government bonds). Is there a debt level that would put you at greater ease?

It is a lot of money and it's just not a finite number but an opportunity cost, and a huge one at that.

I'm not an economist but the trends here are unmistakable:

https://www.thebalance.com/national-debt-by-year-compared-to-gdp-and-major-events-3306287

If we are to double our national debt every eight years than I would pose the opposite question to you: at what level would you feel comfortable allowing the debt to grow? One trillion plus one trillion is a 100% increase as well as 22 trillion plus 22 trillion, but they are vastly different in scope. Because at some point the economy, which I think is vastly over-valued, will not be able to absorb the debt to GDP ratio.

I would feel comfortable not doubling the debt each presidential tenure to answer your question. Trump has failed miserably here so far just as Obama and Bush did with their time in office.

Nick_Miller

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #222 on: March 13, 2019, 11:39:21 AM »
I don't get the Biden lovefest.

He's as old as Bernie.

He's a three-time presidential race loser.

The video of him touching girls at a photo shoot (I watched it) are beyond creepy.

He has a long history of questionable decision-making and gaffes (and recently called Pence something like "a good guy" when in reality Pence is a POS).

And let's not even get into Anita Hill, crime bill, etc, you know, substantive stuff.

YES he is better than Trump. A million times better. But so are ALL the other Dems running.

Again, like everyone else here (I think), I'll vote for whoever wins the Dem primary and become their biggest cheerleader and will give them money.

talltexan

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #223 on: March 13, 2019, 11:42:37 AM »
This is a great chart! Would you say the decade of the 1980's were successful, economically?

I would argue that they were. Yet the debt as share of GDP increased during that decade.

Also, the chart has a blip from 2018 to 2019 where it dances between 99% of GDP and 108% of GDP. Since the deficit is only 4.5% of GDP, how could that be changing so fast?

Johnez

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #224 on: March 13, 2019, 01:16:30 PM »
^
The "power of compound interest" at work?

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #225 on: March 13, 2019, 02:14:59 PM »
Thank you for your reply, Versatile.

The $364 billion number does indeed sound like a lot of money. But the same number was $199 billion in 1991. So over 28 years, it's barely doubled.

Over that time, the entire US economy has grown substantially, from $6,000 billion to over $18,000 billion in real output. Meanwhile, the US has provided many older investors a safe asset that has a small yield (in the form of these government bonds). Is there a debt level that would put you at greater ease?

It is a lot of money and it's just not a finite number but an opportunity cost, and a huge one at that.

I'm not an economist but the trends here are unmistakable:

https://www.thebalance.com/national-debt-by-year-compared-to-gdp-and-major-events-3306287

If we are to double our national debt every eight years than I would pose the opposite question to you: at what level would you feel comfortable allowing the debt to grow? One trillion plus one trillion is a 100% increase as well as 22 trillion plus 22 trillion, but they are vastly different in scope. Because at some point the economy, which I think is vastly over-valued, will not be able to absorb the debt to GDP ratio.

I would feel comfortable not doubling the debt each presidential tenure to answer your question. Trump has failed miserably here so far just as Obama and Bush did with their time in office.
The one time in that chart that the debt-gdp ratio dropped was in the late 40s through 50s. During that time the marginal tax rate on the top brackets went up to 90%+. Trump did exactly the opposite of this (and McConnel, of course). This did little to improve the economy as a whole and fucked the budget.

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #226 on: March 14, 2019, 07:56:08 AM »
So Beto made it official yesterday. Who's left who hasn't officially announced besides Biden? Anyone?

Nick_Miller

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #227 on: March 14, 2019, 08:30:07 AM »
I would guess Biden will be it.

(Although a tiny nerdish part of me wants Chris Evans/Captain America to be someone's VP.)

OurTown

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #228 on: March 14, 2019, 08:51:42 AM »
Biden will essentially complete the field.  So here is your top tier, left to right:  Sanders, Warren, Harris, Biden, Beto.  The others will be interesting "also-rans."  It should be a good primary.  I'm not a fan of Bernie Sanders but I'm fine with the other four.  Harris is the best pick, IMO. 

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #229 on: March 14, 2019, 10:41:06 AM »
As a liberal leaning independent, candidates like Klobuchar and OíRourke have more appeal to me than much of this crop of Democrats. I need to dig more into Inslee and Hickenlooper to view their records as governors.

I could see voting for Biden as a steady hand caretaker just to get Trump out of office. The rest of the field hasnít impressed me too much yet, but apart from Sanders and Warren, they havenít turned me off yet either. Iíll vote third party or write in before I vote for Sanders.

madgeylou

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #230 on: March 14, 2019, 12:34:44 PM »
As a liberal leaning independent, candidates like Klobuchar and OíRourke have more appeal to me than much of this crop of Democrats. I need to dig more into Inslee and Hickenlooper to view their records as governors.

I could see voting for Biden as a steady hand caretaker just to get Trump out of office. The rest of the field hasnít impressed me too much yet, but apart from Sanders and Warren, they havenít turned me off yet either. Iíll vote third party or write in before I vote for Sanders.

Bernie's not my favorite either but damn I will vote for him gladly he's the nominee. Literally any animal, vegetable, or mineral is better than the Donald.

Warren and Harris are my front runners. I'm impressed with Warren's policy proposals and with Harris's demeanor and overall competence.

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #231 on: March 14, 2019, 02:00:55 PM »
As a liberal leaning independent, candidates like Klobuchar and OíRourke have more appeal to me than much of this crop of Democrats. I need to dig more into Inslee and Hickenlooper to view their records as governors.

I could see voting for Biden as a steady hand caretaker just to get Trump out of office. The rest of the field hasnít impressed me too much yet, but apart from Sanders and Warren, they havenít turned me off yet either. Iíll vote third party or write in before I vote for Sanders.

Bernie's not my favorite either but damn I will vote for him gladly he's the nominee. Literally any animal, vegetable, or mineral is better than the Donald.

Warren and Harris are my front runners. I'm impressed with Warren's policy proposals and with Harris's demeanor and overall competence.

Harris has really impressed me with her temperament and the way she handles interviews. I like her a lot. She's my top pick at the moment. I agree with OurTown, though - it should be a good primary, and I like all of the candidates. (Something about Gillibrand rubs me the wrong way, but she's pretty much already an also-ran. Her campaign is getting no traction.)

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #232 on: March 14, 2019, 07:49:59 PM »
I like Beto O'Rourke because he surpassed Hillary Clinton's vote in major Texas metro areas by 6 percentage points.
These major cities of Texas continue to grow in population with respect to the rest of Texas.
Consequently, it's likely that Beto O'Rourke could cause Texas to flip to the Democratic column.
Ted Cruz only beat Beto O'Rourke by 220,000 votes.
Merely increasing the voter turnout in one of Texas' large metro areas could have flipped the election.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-beto-orourke-shifted-the-map-in-texas/


Psychstache

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #233 on: March 15, 2019, 07:04:26 AM »
I like Beto O'Rourke because he surpassed Hillary Clinton's vote in major Texas metro areas by 6 percentage points.
These major cities of Texas continue to grow in population with respect to the rest of Texas.
Consequently, it's likely that Beto O'Rourke could cause Texas to flip to the Democratic column.
Ted Cruz only beat Beto O'Rourke by 220,000 votes.
Merely increasing the voter turnout in one of Texas' large metro areas could have flipped the election.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-beto-orourke-shifted-the-map-in-texas/

Beto's Senate run was very impressive, the problem is the the Republican controlled state government also noticed and is taking steps to address this via voter roll purges. Their first attempt was a boondoggle that got called out by the media, but they have plenty of time to refine their methods and try again.

talltexan

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #234 on: March 15, 2019, 08:49:21 AM »
Beto's run generated a lot of excitement in Texas. But I'd appreciate arguments for him based on his positions on issues. He was very daft in speaking about the kneeling/standing for the anthem thing in the NFL. How would he run an economy? Conduct the NK negotiations? address the Paris Climate agreement? Has he been very specific on these?

Because to do as well as he did in TX, you have to be vague, as his positions on many of these things were not state-wide winners.

madgeylou

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #235 on: March 15, 2019, 09:47:43 AM »
@talltexan -- exactly. I haven't heard much substantive talk from Beto, charming and handsome though he may be.

This article about Beto has a very click-baity antagonistic title but if folks are able to look past that and read it, you all may find its arguments compelling. I sure did.

https://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2019/03/beto-orourke-is-the-candidate-for-vapid-morons.html


Of course I will vote for Beto if he wins the primary, but there doesn't seem to be very much in there, if you ask me.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2019, 09:50:27 AM by madgeylou »

Kris

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #236 on: March 15, 2019, 10:07:39 AM »
@talltexan -- exactly. I haven't heard much substantive talk from Beto, charming and handsome though he may be.

This article about Beto has a very click-baity antagonistic title but if folks are able to look past that and read it, you all may find its arguments compelling. I sure did.

https://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2019/03/beto-orourke-is-the-candidate-for-vapid-morons.html


Of course I will vote for Beto if he wins the primary, but there doesn't seem to be very much in there, if you ask me.

Beto is near the very bottom of the list, for me. A quote I read earlier today, which seems apt:

"
Beto has all of Obamaís self-assurance with none of his intellectual fortitude, inspirational biography, or oratory power."

He feels like pretty thin broth, to me. And as I said on the 2020 poll post that Nick_Miller started, I'm feeling like a relative lack of experience is more problematic in 2020 than it might have been in previous election cycles. Because the person who wins this election is going to inherit an absolute shitshow of a White House -- their transition team will have next to no help from the Trump administration because no one knows what the hell they're doing.

wenchsenior

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #237 on: March 15, 2019, 10:46:34 AM »
@talltexan -- exactly. I haven't heard much substantive talk from Beto, charming and handsome though he may be.

This article about Beto has a very click-baity antagonistic title but if folks are able to look past that and read it, you all may find its arguments compelling. I sure did.

https://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2019/03/beto-orourke-is-the-candidate-for-vapid-morons.html


Of course I will vote for Beto if he wins the primary, but there doesn't seem to be very much in there, if you ask me.

Beto is near the very bottom of the list, for me. A quote I read earlier today, which seems apt:

"
Beto has all of Obamaís self-assurance with none of his intellectual fortitude, inspirational biography, or oratory power."

He feels like pretty thin broth, to me. And as I said on the 2020 poll post that Nick_Miller started, I'm feeling like a relative lack of experience is more problematic in 2020 than it might have been in previous election cycles. Because the person who wins this election is going to inherit an absolute shitshow of a White House -- their transition team will have next to no help from the Trump administration because no one knows what the hell they're doing.

Same.  I have nothing against him, and long campaigns will tell us a great deal, but at the moment he's down near the bottom of my  tentative list.   

talltexan

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #238 on: March 15, 2019, 02:10:00 PM »
People were saying Obama seemed like "thin broth" in 2008 during the primary against Clinton. But somehow, we got here.

Kris

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #239 on: March 15, 2019, 02:17:40 PM »
People were saying Obama seemed like "thin broth" in 2008 during the primary against Clinton. But somehow, we got here.

I'm not sure it's quite the same. Yes, there were people citing his lack of experience. However, Obama was an exceptional candidate, an exceptional orator, and exceptionally intelligent.

Hence, the quote I cited above.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #240 on: March 15, 2019, 07:41:59 PM »
I do like Elizabeth Warren's idea for a wealth tax and for universal Pre-K.

JetBlast

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #241 on: March 16, 2019, 03:03:45 PM »
As a liberal leaning independent, candidates like Klobuchar and OíRourke have more appeal to me than much of this crop of Democrats. I need to dig more into Inslee and Hickenlooper to view their records as governors.

I could see voting for Biden as a steady hand caretaker just to get Trump out of office. The rest of the field hasnít impressed me too much yet, but apart from Sanders and Warren, they havenít turned me off yet either. Iíll vote third party or write in before I vote for Sanders.

Bernie's not my favorite either but damn I will vote for him gladly he's the nominee. Literally any animal, vegetable, or mineral is better than the Donald.

Bernieís economic policies scare the hell out of me.  Iím not voting for that.

Donald Trump is a mysoginistic blowhard that will also not get my vote.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #242 on: March 16, 2019, 03:39:13 PM »
I just listened to Andrew Gillum on Real Time with Bill Maher. Andrew Gillum really presents himself well, he's very articulate, intelligent, and relatable. He almost won the Florida race for governor, and if the many voters hadn't been disenfranchised in that state he would have won.

Poundwise

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #243 on: March 18, 2019, 02:52:51 PM »
Pete Buttigieg is a really thoughtful guy, and he does have executive experience. The more I see, the more I like him, though I'm not ready to pick a candidate yet.

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/local/2019/01/23/presidential-election-2020-south-bend-mayor-pete-buttigieg-joins/2655243002/

Nick_Miller

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #244 on: March 19, 2019, 10:40:20 AM »
I am liking Mayor Pete better all the time the more I see of him.

Incredibly likable and smart and articulate. I might like him better than any of the other candidates. He's Ivy league, former military, gay, a millennial, has executive experience, and as I said very likable. He checks a lot of boxes. He could make a splash at the debates.

I still love Bernie, but I am coming to the conclusion that he will lose momentum over the coming months. He just looks soooo old compared to Mayor Pete, Tulsi, Beto, Harris, Booker, etc. The debate stage will probably not be kind to Bernie. Last time, it was one on one, he was clearly the more authentic candidate, and hell Hillary wasn't much younger. This time, you have all of these fresh faces, many with progressive platforms.

However I can already see the Twittersphere burning up with stupid jokes about Mayor Pete (who is gay and who also has a last name that starts with "Butt")
« Last Edit: March 19, 2019, 10:53:50 AM by Nick_Miller »

turketron

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #245 on: March 19, 2019, 11:19:38 AM »
Yeah, I really like Buttigieg. I don't know that he's my first choice (yet) but I threw him $5 to help him make it to the first primary debate. Even if he doesn't make it very far this time, I'm willing to bet this isn't the last we've heard from him. I've listened to a couple interviews with him now and his answers, especially to questions regarding his age/experience, are on point.

If you haven't heard him speak yet, here's a good one: https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/wnyc/stay-tuned-with-preet/e/59269733

JetBlast

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #246 on: March 19, 2019, 02:50:33 PM »
New article on FiveThirtyEight that discusses some of Betoís positions.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-does-beto-orourke-believe/

I donít agree with all of it, but very strongly agree in eliminating the death penalty and for-profit prisons, and I want the bail system massively reformed. I also think the public option is a more viable path forward for healthcare reform at this time. Perhaps single payer becomes fesable when people see that the public option isnít all about death panels and substandard medical treatment.

secondcor521

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #247 on: March 21, 2019, 03:58:29 PM »
Apparently there is an Axios story that Biden is considering entering the race with a VP candidate already chosen (Stacey Abrams):

https://www.axios.com/2020-presidential-election-joe-biden-stacey-abrams-vp-54472f8f-5bb2-4d1f-bc7c-0544a09ebba5.html

I think Abrams would be a good VP pick for Biden and I think it could create some needed buzz for him if he announces his entry to the race that way.  But I question the wisdom of choosing a running mate so early.

Johnez

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #248 on: March 21, 2019, 04:28:37 PM »
^If true, definitely a step in the right direction. Glad to see Abrams considered.

Daisy

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #249 on: March 21, 2019, 10:24:19 PM »
I normally don't opine on politics on this forum, but I am a big Tulsi Gabbard fan. She is the only candidate I have seen that has announced candidacy that is fiercely anti-interventionist.

I have noticed in these comments and on another thread that was started that many Democrats don't like her, or are outright ignoring her as a candidate.

However, independents seem to like her a lot more. I think she would widen the base of voters that otherwise wouldn't vote Dem and may just defer to Trump if the Dem candidate seems too lefty for them.

I agree with a previous poster that she would be the strongest against Trump. She is not easily bullied. See her interviews.

Trump already has nicknames for almost all of the other Dems on the candidate list and I don't see how they have countered his bullying well.

I don't agree with all of her positions, but in my opinion being anti-war/anti-interventionist is the biggest issue. No other candidate other than Bernie brings up the issue.

It's either Tulsi or a third party candidate for me, from what I see so far.
« Last Edit: March 21, 2019, 10:43:22 PM by Daisy »