Author Topic: 2020 POTUS Candidates  (Read 142559 times)

pecunia

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1250 on: November 05, 2019, 04:58:53 PM »

- SNIP -

Yes, GuitarStv, it is just too much and I think we are all getting brain damage from it all. Trump seems like he never stopped the BS campaigning and he loves the limelight, the screaming, chanting crowds. I wish we could only have 50 days of this insanity!

I'll bet if some kind of organization was formed to make that the law, I think you would get a lot of people behind it.  Fifty days would be plenty and could, perhaps, put a better focus on what is truly important.

secondcor521

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1251 on: November 07, 2019, 09:48:47 AM »
Maybe it's just me and the particular news articles I see, but it sure feels like the Democratic nominee will be whomever is the flavor of the month when the primaries start to congeal on someone.

First it was Sanders, then maybe Harris, then no, definitely Biden, then no, probably Warren.  Now it seems like we're seeing a possible Warren to Buttigieg shift.  Every candidate has strengths and weaknesses; the strengths lead them into the limelight and their weaknesses shift them out and the next option in.

Question for the historians here:  Does a candidate who was in the lead and then faded ever come back again?  Does the size of the field matter affect the answer?  As best I can recall, the candidates who have been nominated by the major parties seem to have grabbed the lead at some point and then kept it, not traded off the lead with someone else.  The only possible exception might be the Obama/Clinton primary of 2008, but even there I think any trade offs of the lead happened early on.

partgypsy

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1252 on: November 07, 2019, 09:56:58 AM »
I was talking to two people who follow politics MUCH more than I do. I am basically, I like Warren, I like Klobuchar, but will vote for whoever the Democratic candidate is. One was really arguing about that Sanders is still the way to go. That he really can energize people to vote for him, in particular white working class males, that maybe other Democratic candidates don't resonate as much with.  The other person like Buttigieg but the Sanders person did NOT (I wasn't listening close enough to understand why). The other thing I thought was interesting is that both people also liked Yang, felt favorable towards him, but didn't think he had a shot.

Poundwise

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1253 on: November 07, 2019, 11:07:12 AM »
I just read what seemed to be a very good summary of the race so far, with good graphics, here: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50097838

GuitarStv

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1254 on: November 07, 2019, 11:25:27 AM »
Man.  Trump has raised a shit ton of money 'free speech' already.

KBecks

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1255 on: November 07, 2019, 03:01:04 PM »
I just read what seemed to be a very good summary of the race so far, with good graphics, here: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50097838

I read an article today about how Trump is polling in the swing states. I wonder how the Dems are stacking up there and who is leading?

Poundwise

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1256 on: November 07, 2019, 03:30:55 PM »
My impression is that it's a statistical tie between Trump and any of the three frontrunners in the swing states (whether Biden, Sanders, and Warren). There was a NYT article about it but feeling too lazy too look it up.

pecunia

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1257 on: November 07, 2019, 04:19:53 PM »
So Trump has 83 million to spend and every day he gets a ton of free publicity and major endorsements from a major Cable news network.   Maybe he would start to really do good things for the US people.  He will have learned so much from his first term.

FIPurpose

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1258 on: November 07, 2019, 05:26:50 PM »
Well to compare to 2016, polls nationally are pretty solid. RCP average had Hillary at +3 and the final number came in at just over +2. If a candidate is consistently polling at +5% or more nationally, that's a pretty good sign that they're a shoe in.

However that breaks down when you start to look at state polling. Polling states is much harder and has a much bigger margin of error.
2016 RCP Average vs. actual: (+ for Hillary, - for Trump)
      RCP        Actual       Diff
FL   -0.2        -1.2         -1
OH  -3.5        -0.5         +3
MI  +3.5        -0.4         -3.9
PA  +1.9        -0.7         -2.6
NH +0.6        +1.2        +0.6
NC  -1            -1            0
VA  +5           +5.3       +0.3 
AZ  -4            -3.5        +0.5
IA   -3            -9.4        -6.4
WI  +6.5        -.8          -7.3

Where as polling nationally seemed to be well within expected margin of +/- 1-2%, a large number of state swing closer to 3-6%. Look at Michigan during the 2016 primary for instance. Hillary was polling an average of +21 however Bernie won the state by 1.5% which I believe makes it the worst presidential polling blunder in US history. State polling is simply just not reliable.

Travis

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1259 on: November 07, 2019, 06:36:58 PM »
Question for the historians here:  Does a candidate who was in the lead and then faded ever come back again?  Does the size of the field matter affect the answer?  As best I can recall, the candidates who have been nominated by the major parties seem to have grabbed the lead at some point and then kept it, not traded off the lead with someone else.  The only possible exception might be the Obama/Clinton primary of 2008, but even there I think any trade offs of the lead happened early on.

Prior to the actual primaries the candidates can rise and fall to varying degrees, but once the voting starts the field gets narrowed very quickly as the money starts to dry up for the less popular. 

KBecks

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1260 on: November 07, 2019, 07:03:31 PM »
Bloomberg preparing to enter???

Roland of Gilead

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1261 on: November 08, 2019, 05:49:44 AM »
Bloomberg preparing to enter???

Might be good?  Will have to look into his background more if he does.

GuitarStv

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1262 on: November 08, 2019, 07:24:45 AM »
So Trump has 83 million to spend and every day he gets a ton of free publicity and major endorsements from a major Cable news network.   Maybe he would start to really do good things for the US people.  He will have learned so much from his first term.

Do we have recorded evidence of Trump learning anything, ever?

OzzieandHarriet

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1263 on: November 08, 2019, 09:06:44 AM »
So Trump has 83 million to spend and every day he gets a ton of free publicity and major endorsements from a major Cable news network.   Maybe he would start to really do good things for the US people.  He will have learned so much from his first term.

Do we have recorded evidence of Trump learning anything, ever?

I believe @pecunia was being just a tad sarcastic there.

PathtoFIRE

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1264 on: November 08, 2019, 11:00:58 AM »
Bloomberg preparing to enter???

Alternate headline:  Another billionaire announces vanity presidential run rather than supporting like-minded politician or just as important state and local elections

KBecks

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1265 on: November 08, 2019, 11:12:42 AM »
Yeah. I don't know if voters will blow him off, or if his entry will confuse people, or wipe out Biden.

FIPurpose

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1266 on: November 08, 2019, 12:00:53 PM »
I can only imagine that Bloomberg will steal 1-3% from Biden. I see 2 possibilities:

1. Bloomberg is secretly trying to steal from Biden in order to keep him from office as he secretly backs Warren.

2. Bloomberg thinks Biden has been weak, he doesn't understand why the electorate like Sanders/Warren, and thinks he can land a knock-out punch in a debate to destroy Sanders/Warren.

Poundwise

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1267 on: November 08, 2019, 12:40:25 PM »
I also think that Buttigieg rising in the polls as "Mayor Pete" has been an annoyance to De Blasio and Bloomberg. The nerve!

Poundwise

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1268 on: November 08, 2019, 03:17:25 PM »
P.S.  As a former resident and public school parent of NYC, Bloomberg gets a round "Booooooooooo!!" from me.  I detested his choices for schools chancellor such as test-mad Joel Klein and Cathie Black, who was kind of a mini Betsy DeVos in terms of her privilege and lack of qualification.

former player

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1269 on: November 08, 2019, 07:46:18 PM »
I would question the judgement of someone who looked at the current candidates, both Democrat and Republican, and said to themselves "this line up is incomplete without another rich, septuagenarian white man".

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1270 on: November 09, 2019, 01:18:26 AM »
Well, Pete was a having a nice run but I don't know how he can survive this cinnamon roll incident. What you choose to eat on the campaign trail is serious business; remember what happened with Ed Miliband! Pete should have had ice cream instead since some of the best politicians-eating-things photos are of that. (Biden should eat ice cream instead of talk at the debates). Ice cream reminds people of summer, youth, and innocence and imbues the eater with those qualities via the halo effect; cinnamon rolls are what you eat when you are trying to fill an existential void or simply out of general shame and self-hatred.
/shitpost

former player

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1271 on: November 09, 2019, 02:29:19 AM »
Well, Pete was a having a nice run but I don't know how he can survive this cinnamon roll incident. What you choose to eat on the campaign trail is serious business; remember what happened with Ed Miliband! Pete should have had ice cream instead since some of the best politicians-eating-things photos are of that. (Biden should eat ice cream instead of talk at the debates). Ice cream reminds people of summer, youth, and innocence and imbues the eater with those qualities via the halo effect; cinnamon rolls are what you eat when you are trying to fill an existential void or simply out of general shame and self-hatred.
/shitpost
Pete looks pretty trim to me, and you don't stay that way by scarfing pastries down whole (unless you have time for a lot of exercise or vomit them up after eating, of course).

pecunia

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1272 on: November 09, 2019, 05:48:19 AM »
Good thing the press is concerned with the important things like the manner you consume sweet rolls instead of the less important stuff like kids in cages, endless war, the increasing national debt, the loss of American industry & jobs, overpriced health care and other more mundane factors of today's life.

KBecks

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1273 on: November 09, 2019, 05:57:27 AM »
The unemployment rate in America was 3.6% in October.
Trump is working to bring people home from endless wars and resolve global conflicts.

I don't think either of these is a winning argument unless a Ministry of Truth can convince (spread lies) that there are no jobs and endless war.

When our state electoral college representatives finished their work, a person in the audience was shrieking and screaming that we were all going to die.  We have not done that poorly.

Perhaps that's why the press is talking about pastries.  It's easier to pitch the "nice guy" vs. "mean guy" and ignore how we're doing as a country.

Hey, let's look at who has the more beautiful spouse, and how good their cookies are.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2019, 06:08:10 AM by KBecks »

Poundwise

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1274 on: November 09, 2019, 06:47:44 AM »
What about the young children who have been separated at the border from family for months? I have a friend in real life who is working with a family whose daughters (age 4 and 9) were separated at the border and kept in a facility for over half a year. The youngest was 3 when she was taken from her grandmother.  She turned 4 in custody.  She doesn't smile much and she's going to be messed up in her life.   Her grandma, of course, has no bitterness at being jailed in upstate NY for months, and the entire family went to church to thank the Lord when the children were released. 

I don't think we're doing well as a country.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2019, 06:49:19 AM by Poundwise »

secondcor521

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1275 on: November 09, 2019, 09:19:14 AM »
Something I have wondered about is whether voters vote their own situation or their neighbor's situation.

What I mean is, if a voter has a good job but their neighbor lost their manufacturing job, and the voter for whatever reason connects the job situation with elected officials, are they going to vote for the elected official because they have a job, or against the elected official because their neighbor is out of work?

This can be generalized to lots of issues...any voter can be personally affected or have friends affected or friends of friends affected one way or the other by abortion rights, war, health care costs, the stock market, etc.  And how these issues affect the voter may not align with those around them.

pecunia

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1276 on: November 09, 2019, 09:49:13 AM »
You can go beyond the question as to whether they are voting in their own or their neighbor's interest to an even simple question:

Are people voting in their own interests?

Here's a short article saying many are not.

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2018/06/05/why-people-vote-against-their-economic-interests

I think there are many who do not consider societal interests in their voting decisions.  I think it is different than former times.  People who had experienced World War 2 and the great depression seemed to consider broader issues than how someone was eating a biscuit to make their voting decisions.  I guess the WW2 people having fought alongside people of all stripes may have realized that we are more alike than different. 

I would think a great proportion of today's voters are of the baby boom generation.  They have been dubbed the "me" generation.  This refers to active self involvement.  This, obviously, leaves less mental time to think of the concerns of others.  I believe recent history confirms that people vote their self interests and not the interests of others.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Me_generation

Last weekend I ran across something unusual.  I try to keep an open mind when it comes to politics.  Donald trump has taken a beating in the press.  Yet, he still has a lot of support.  Since I am ill informed, I thought it would be great to speak with an avid Trump supporter to find validation in the person's beliefs.

There was a guy selling Trump paraphernalia at a corner gas station.  I approached him with the sole purpose of education.  I asked what Trump had done for people in his time of service.  I was not aggressive.  In fact, I would call it a friendly conversation.  Despite the guy having attended numerous Trump rallies he could not provide any substantial facts where Mr. Trump had done things to benefit the American people.  I tried to "prime the pump."  I noted that he had been involved in positive talks with North Korea.  This did not prompt additional information of Trump's good works.

I've got to say that I'm coming to the conclusion that many Trump supporters do not support the man for either their own best interests nor the country at large.  Their choice to support the man is made for other reasons.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1277 on: November 09, 2019, 11:29:48 AM »
For me it is very difficult to figure out which candidate would be best for my own interests, if I purely go selfish.

We take big advantage of the ACA, getting a massive subsidy even though we have assets, so to guarantee that I should vote democrat.

We will likely never have 50 million or 1 billion in personal wealth, so even Warren's more outrageous "kill the billionaires" policies that even Bill Gates raises an eyebrow toward would not likely affect us.

I do invest in biotech, an area where I think the republicans would be less likely to drastically mess with than the democrats, but I can easily change my investments (currently cash anyway) or even take advantage of a oversize unwarranted drop and carpet bag me some cheap biotech in the case of a democrat win.  Again, this is being selfish and not really caring about lowering the cost of drugs but more about profit.

Those of us who can manipulate our income while maintaining fairly outrageous amounts of assets probably will do better under a democrat than a republican, as long as we are mindful of the risks of the stock market.

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1278 on: November 09, 2019, 11:43:59 AM »
Something I have wondered about is whether voters vote their own situation or their neighbor's situation.



Given human nature I think usually the former.

FIPurpose

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1279 on: November 09, 2019, 01:01:51 PM »
If voters were voting based merely selfish means, the South (except Texas) would be voting Democrat and New England and CA would be voting GOP. The South currently receives ~$4k per capita more than it puts in federally. So why is that these states tend to vote for tax reduction? They tend to receive far more in benefits than they put in as a whole. A couple reasons come to my mind:

1. People don't realize how much their living situations are truly subsidized. They have no clue how much roads cost, how much of their taxes actually went to it and how much the feds paid. Federal programs are simply too abstract for people to readily understand what they're paying for and what they're getting.

2. People don't vote selfishly, they vote for their team. So locality is a strong one. A lot of people feel loyal to their state, so they will be drawn very heavily in the direction that their state votes. However people will also vote with their team religion, race, etc.

I would be willing to bet that most people do not vote selfishly, they vote in a way that is to advance their tribe. This is how the same group of people can vilify one billionaire as elitist and out of touch, but another one can be completely for the people. If one billionaire is using their power and wealth to advance their team's agenda, then they're by definition not out of touch and them being a billionaire means more money is being used to advance their cause.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1280 on: November 09, 2019, 01:20:40 PM »
Yes, you see the same thing in race relations too.   A person will naturally identify with their own race and be more inclined to believe negatives about another race while at the same time defending a person from their own race who is accused of some action.

You see it in nationality as well.

John Galt incarnate!

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1281 on: November 09, 2019, 01:45:24 PM »


2. People don't vote selfishly, they vote for their team. So locality is a strong one. A lot of people feel loyal to their state, so they will be drawn very heavily in the direction that their state votes. However people will also vote with their team religion, race, etc.


"All politics is local." Tip O'Neill

Laserjet3051

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1282 on: November 09, 2019, 02:42:50 PM »
You can go beyond the question as to whether they are voting in their own or their neighbor's interest to an even simple question:

Are people voting in their own interests?

Here's a short article saying many are not.

https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2018/06/05/why-people-vote-against-their-economic-interests

I think there are many who do not consider societal interests in their voting decisions.  I think it is different than former times.  People who had experienced World War 2 and the great depression seemed to consider broader issues than how someone was eating a biscuit to make their voting decisions.  I guess the WW2 people having fought alongside people of all stripes may have realized that we are more alike than different. 

I would think a great proportion of today's voters are of the baby boom generation.  They have been dubbed the "me" generation.  This refers to active self involvement.  This, obviously, leaves less mental time to think of the concerns of others.  I believe recent history confirms that people vote their self interests and not the interests of others.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Me_generation

Last weekend I ran across something unusual.  I try to keep an open mind when it comes to politics.  Donald trump has taken a beating in the press.  Yet, he still has a lot of support.  Since I am ill informed, I thought it would be great to speak with an avid Trump supporter to find validation in the person's beliefs.

There was a guy selling Trump paraphernalia at a corner gas station.  I approached him with the sole purpose of education.  I asked what Trump had done for people in his time of service.  I was not aggressive.  In fact, I would call it a friendly conversation.  Despite the guy having attended numerous Trump rallies he could not provide any substantial facts where Mr. Trump had done things to benefit the American people.  I tried to "prime the pump."  I noted that he had been involved in positive talks with North Korea.  This did not prompt additional information of Trump's good works.

I've got to say that I'm coming to the conclusion that many Trump supporters do not support the man for either their own best interests nor the country at large.  Their choice to support the man is made for other reasons.

be careful about drawing conclusions from one experience. there are many people who voted Trump as it serves their personal interests and, in their perspective, the country at large. does that describe EVERY Trump voter? No, but it does describe most of the Trump voters i personally know.

pecunia

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1283 on: November 09, 2019, 03:25:14 PM »

 - SNIP -

be careful about drawing conclusions from one experience. there are many people who voted Trump as it serves their personal interests and, in their perspective, the country at large. does that describe EVERY Trump voter? No, but it does describe most of the Trump voters i personally know.

Right - One of these days I'll meet one who may be more informed than this fellow.  I try to be open minded about the guy, but you hear so little good about him it is difficult. 

use2betrix

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1284 on: November 09, 2019, 06:42:36 PM »
I saw an article earlier that Warren is proposing capital gains to be taxed on an annual basis at the same rate as the persons income tax rate.

What’s everyone’s thought on that?

Roland of Gilead

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1285 on: November 09, 2019, 06:49:03 PM »
I saw an article earlier that Warren is proposing capital gains to be taxed on an annual basis at the same rate as the persons income tax rate.

What’s everyone’s thought on that?

Would not really affect me since all of my capital gains are always short term, which is taxed at that income tax rate anyway.   My long term stuff is in 401K and Roth

shuffler

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1286 on: November 09, 2019, 06:57:54 PM »
I saw an article earlier that Warren is proposing capital gains to be taxed on an annual basis at the same rate as the persons income tax rate.
... for the "top 1% of households".  Presumably measured by income, though I'm not certain of that.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1287 on: November 09, 2019, 07:12:30 PM »
The main problem with the attitude "well, that won't affect me" is that eventually they make their way down to whatever level DOES affect you and by then it is far too late to change.

MKinVA

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1288 on: November 09, 2019, 08:09:06 PM »
I don't have a problem with paying regular income on capital gains outside of retirement accounts, but I also think other tax provisions should apply in that case, such as using capital gains (unearned income) as deposits to IRAs and other tax advantaged accounts. For people who retire young, this would be fair IMHO.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1289 on: November 09, 2019, 09:13:10 PM »
I also think that Buttigieg rising in the polls as "Mayor Pete" has been an annoyance to De Blasio and Bloomberg. The nerve!
Looks like Pete is annoying a lot of his competitors:

"Former Representative Beto O’Rourke of Texas, another younger candidate with limited government experience, was particularly aggrieved by Mr. Buttigieg, whom he viewed as 'a human weather vane' that represented the worst of politics, according to an O’Rourke aide."

"[Julian Castro] said Mr. Buttigieg isn’t trusted by minority voters who comprise a vast portion of the Democratic Party’s coalition and suggested the South Bend mayor is reverse engineering political positions to fit the moment."

I'm sure Pete appropriated his beloved computer (which he named Bertha) from his consulting days at McKinsey and built a model with which to reverse engineer his positions. It's possible! Though to me this sounds like Castro is merely complaining his competitor is too skilled of a politician. Castro, to his credit, has the situational awareness to also note:

"He’s going by the old playbook of following the focus groups, going by what political consultants tell you. If we’ve learned anything from Donald Trump, unfortunately in a bad way, it’s that focus grouping and poll testing ain’t the way that you’re going to win."

Just beneath the surface, that actually sounds like more of dig at Hillary than Pete. The problem with Hillary wasn't her reliance on back-room analytics but her inability to inspire widespread passion in her base. Castro also seems to misunderestimate the Trump campaign's analytics effort, as well as not acknowledge Trump's live-testing of various positions and thematic elements while stumping at his earlier political rallies. Despite the fact he's a Vulcan, Pete's strange sort of charisma has gained a bit of traction

Spoiler: show
Note that the Warren bubble has popped. I predicted in April that she would win the nomination (when the betting market aggregate had her at ~4%) and still expect her to have the time and ability to retrench, pivot, and recover from her recent missteps. Buttigieg's rise to ~15% has been a surprise since I expected him to follow a softer-landing version of Beto's trajectory.


Roland of Gilead

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1290 on: November 10, 2019, 04:17:44 AM »
I don't have a problem with paying regular income on capital gains outside of retirement accounts, but I also think other tax provisions should apply in that case, such as using capital gains (unearned income) as deposits to IRAs and other tax advantaged accounts. For people who retire young, this would be fair IMHO.

I would 100% get behind this idea.   Make all income, just income, no special cases.  We could then be funding a Roth during retirement using our capital gains or dividends

edit:  but make Roth a special case of course :-)

use2betrix

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1291 on: November 10, 2019, 05:03:38 AM »
@Roland of Gilead @shuffler

I’ve seen articles specifying top 1% of households (which seems to be about $700k net worth) and others where top 1% isn’t specified.

Also, it’s on an annual basis whether you sell or not

I.e.  if you have a million dollars in vtsax, and it grows to $1.1 MM over a year, you have to pay tax on that $100k, even if you don’t sell any of that stock and it’s still sitting in your account.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/11/05/warrens-plan-finance-medicare-for-all-pushes-into-dangerous-uncharted-territory/%3foutputType=amp

“ There will be tax collections from those who are not middle class but still earn less than $1 million a year. There are sources of “income” that will be taxed under the Medicare-for-all proposal that do not show up in current adjusted gross income — unrealized capital gains or corporate retained earnings, for example.”
« Last Edit: November 10, 2019, 05:23:04 AM by use2betrix »

Roland of Gilead

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1292 on: November 10, 2019, 05:20:53 AM »
Oh, hmm, I don't know how I feel about that.   So you are forced to sell just to pay the taxes?

use2betrix

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1293 on: November 10, 2019, 05:26:54 AM »
Oh, hmm, I don't know how I feel about that.   So you are forced to sell just to pay the taxes?

No - you are forced to pay taxes on the growth of your account, whether you sell or not.

I.e. - if your acct grows $10k, and you’re in a 25% tax bracket, you’re paying $2.5k in taxes on that growth whether you pull it out or leave it in your account.

Makes me wonder what happens when the market drops...


This would make an incentive for people to purchase assets outside the market to avoid those taxes. Real estate, etc.

« Last Edit: November 10, 2019, 05:30:06 AM by use2betrix »

KBecks

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1294 on: November 10, 2019, 05:49:28 AM »
Exactly.  I would move into real estate, and perhaps we should be looking that pre-emptively as a bit of safety.

I think that taxing on unrealized gains is ridiculous.  The market goes up, you pay taxes on unrealized gains, the market crashes, you lose-lose.  Who would want that? 

It's a screwing of the people who have lived below their means and saved money their whole lives.

That said, this is likely a talking game that will not come to pass.  Fingers crossed.
« Last Edit: November 10, 2019, 05:52:30 AM by KBecks »

big_owl

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1295 on: November 10, 2019, 08:50:05 AM »
Exactly.  I would move into real estate, and perhaps we should be looking that pre-emptively as a bit of safety.

I think that taxing on unrealized gains is ridiculous.  The market goes up, you pay taxes on unrealized gains, the market crashes, you lose-lose.  Who would want that? 

It's a screwing of the people who have lived below their means and saved money their whole lives.

That said, this is likely a talking game that will not come to pass.  Fingers crossed.

Would make it really easy for the federal reserve to directly fund the government.   Just engage in QE to goose markets and government immediately pockets taxes for funding, no sale of treasuries necessary (well sort of - QE would have to look a bit different). In the unlikely event this were to ever happen I think it would be highly inflationary.

former player

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1296 on: November 10, 2019, 08:57:27 AM »
Exactly.  I would move into real estate, and perhaps we should be looking that pre-emptively as a bit of safety.

I think that taxing on unrealized gains is ridiculous.  The market goes up, you pay taxes on unrealized gains, the market crashes, you lose-lose.  Who would want that? 

It's a screwing of the people who have lived below their means and saved money their whole lives.

That said, this is likely a talking game that will not come to pass.  Fingers crossed.

Someone who has earned all their money and lived below their means who has more than say $5m in assets is going to be a rare bird.  Even for them, does anyone need more than say $5m in assets to be untaxed, if say it were set at that level?

Most people with assets over that will have either had very high earnings or an inheritance, so the alternative might be to put higher taxes on say income over $1m or inheritance over $5m (taxed to the recipient, not the estate).




secondcor521

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1297 on: November 10, 2019, 10:57:08 AM »
Exactly.  I would move into real estate, and perhaps we should be looking that pre-emptively as a bit of safety.

It's not clear to me that real estate is exempt from the tax.  In other words, buy a house that is worth $500K.  House value rises to $600K a year later.  You might owe this new tax on $100K of market gain in real estate - again, even if you don't sell the property.  And the gain might be at ordinary income tax rates.

pecunia

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1298 on: November 10, 2019, 11:50:47 AM »
Seems like there would be a lot of big money resistance to raising the capital gains tax beyond 15 percent.  At best a compromise would be reached.  The majority of the elected politicians after the 2020 election will still be those of whom their souls have been sold to the big money interests.

Daisy

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1299 on: November 10, 2019, 01:55:19 PM »
Seems like there would be a lot of big money resistance to raising the capital gains tax beyond 15 percent.  At best a compromise would be reached.  The majority of the elected politicians after the 2020 election will still be those of whom their souls have been sold to the big money interests.

I wonder how much money we would save if we stopped the endless wars. We could fund this stuff without raising taxes. Oh wait that is exactly Tulsi's message.