Poll

Out of current presidential candidates, who is most likely to get your vote?

Jeb Bush
6 (1.7%)
Ben Carson
8 (2.2%)
Chris Christie
8 (2.2%)
Hillary Clinton
77 (21.6%)
Ted Cruz
5 (1.4%)
Lindsey Graham
0 (0%)
Martin O'Malley
2 (0.6%)
Rand Paul
40 (11.2%)
Marco Rubio
8 (2.2%)
Bernie Sanders
144 (40.4%)
Donald Trump
34 (9.6%)
Scott Walker
7 (2%)
Other (Please Explain in Comments)
17 (4.8%)

Total Members Voted: 348

Author Topic: 2016 Presidential Candidate  (Read 310663 times)

Kris

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #150 on: July 30, 2015, 10:00:36 AM »
Oh, how quickly we like to revise history.  The biggot[sic] vote?  You know who else was anti-gay marriage in 2004?  Obama.  Hillary.  A majority in California.  Were all of these people biggots[sic] too?

Yes.

Of course, Obama and Clinton never seemed to be nearly as earnest about it as most of the Republicans... their position was more due to opportunistic political cynicsm than deep, evil conviction and therefore slightly less bad.

Exactly.  I would guess that Obama, at least, has been in favor of marriage equality for a while now, but felt it was too politically risky.  But yes, publicly, they definitely were bigots.

I don't know if that is supposed to condemn him or defend him.  Frankly, I think being against something you think is wrong but not wanting to speak up against it for political expediency is at least as bad as being for that wrong thing.  The word "unprincipled" comes to mind.

How can you imagine that that sentence was emitting glowing praise for Obama?  I don't get that. 

Kris

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #151 on: July 30, 2015, 10:04:25 AM »
DH and I have been discussing candidates for the 2016 presidential election. I'm interested to see which way the MMM community is trending.

Hard to say since we don't know who will all drop out of the race between now and then.  But is anyone surprised that Bernie "Socialist" Sanders and Hillary "Benghazi" Clinton are the favorites here?

I just have to say, my very least favorite form of political "debate" takes the form of silly labels that are meant to reduce a candidate to one (usually erroneous) simplistic facet.

Well, maybe that's tied with the ridiculously persistent third-grade level name calling, e.g. "Obummer". 

forummm

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #152 on: July 30, 2015, 10:05:31 AM »
Oh, how quickly we like to revise history.  The biggot[sic] vote?  You know who else was anti-gay marriage in 2004?  Obama.  Hillary.  A majority in California.  Were all of these people biggots[sic] too?

Yes.

Of course, Obama and Clinton never seemed to be nearly as earnest about it as most of the Republicans... their position was more due to opportunistic political cynicsm than deep, evil conviction and therefore slightly less bad.

or... maybe their views evolved along with the rest of the country. 

It was political calculation. When Obama was running for Illinois Senate in 1996 he said "I support same-sex marriage". And the whole "my views are evolving" BS was clearly signaling that his position was about to change when he felt it was politically expedient. But what he felt inside doesn't matter--his public actions (which were wrong for a long time) are what counts.

Chris22

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #153 on: July 30, 2015, 10:08:11 AM »
Oh, how quickly we like to revise history.  The biggot[sic] vote?  You know who else was anti-gay marriage in 2004?  Obama.  Hillary.  A majority in California.  Were all of these people biggots[sic] too?

Yes.

Of course, Obama and Clinton never seemed to be nearly as earnest about it as most of the Republicans... their position was more due to opportunistic political cynicsm than deep, evil conviction and therefore slightly less bad.

Exactly.  I would guess that Obama, at least, has been in favor of marriage equality for a while now, but felt it was too politically risky.  But yes, publicly, they definitely were bigots.

I don't know if that is supposed to condemn him or defend him.  Frankly, I think being against something you think is wrong but not wanting to speak up against it for political expediency is at least as bad as being for that wrong thing.  The word "unprincipled" comes to mind.

How can you imagine that that sentence was emitting glowing praise for Obama?  I don't get that.

??? I said I couldn't tell if it was defending or condemning him, not defending, condemning, or worshipping. 

forummm

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #154 on: July 30, 2015, 10:09:16 AM »
Oh, how quickly we like to revise history.  The biggot[sic] vote?  You know who else was anti-gay marriage in 2004?  Obama.  Hillary.  A majority in California.  Were all of these people biggots[sic] too?

Yes.

Of course, Obama and Clinton never seemed to be nearly as earnest about it as most of the Republicans... their position was more due to opportunistic political cynicsm than deep, evil conviction and therefore slightly less bad.

Exactly.  I would guess that Obama, at least, has been in favor of marriage equality for a while now, but felt it was too politically risky.  But yes, publicly, they definitely were bigots.

I don't know if that is supposed to condemn him or defend him.  Frankly, I think being against something you think is wrong but not wanting to speak up against it for political expediency is at least as bad as being for that wrong thing.  The word "unprincipled" comes to mind.

Yes, political wind testing. It's a shame, but all politicians do it. Like George HW Bush is pro-choice in his beliefs, but has decided to hide his true feelings for political expediency. And Scott DesJarlais is pro-choice (at least when it comes to him and the abortions he's made his mistresses and wife get) but is pro-life in his voting and public record.

Kris

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #155 on: July 30, 2015, 10:15:31 AM »
Oh, how quickly we like to revise history.  The biggot[sic] vote?  You know who else was anti-gay marriage in 2004?  Obama.  Hillary.  A majority in California.  Were all of these people biggots[sic] too?

Yes.

Of course, Obama and Clinton never seemed to be nearly as earnest about it as most of the Republicans... their position was more due to opportunistic political cynicsm than deep, evil conviction and therefore slightly less bad.

Exactly.  I would guess that Obama, at least, has been in favor of marriage equality for a while now, but felt it was too politically risky.  But yes, publicly, they definitely were bigots.

I don't know if that is supposed to condemn him or defend him.  Frankly, I think being against something you think is wrong but not wanting to speak up against it for political expediency is at least as bad as being for that wrong thing.  The word "unprincipled" comes to mind.

Yes, political wind testing. It's a shame, but all politicians do it. Like George HW Bush is pro-choice in his beliefs, but has decided to hide his true feelings for political expediency. And Scott DesJarlais is pro-choice (at least when it comes to him and the abortions he's made his mistresses and wife get) but is pro-life in his voting and public record.

Or every single Republican candidate on climate change.  I do not for one second believe that they all think it's a hoax.  But none of them has the guts to say it out loud.  Even Jeb sort-of says it maybe-sorta-yeah-humans-maybe-have-something-to-do-with-it, but golly, that doesn't mean we should actually take action

nereo

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #156 on: July 30, 2015, 10:28:52 AM »
If Jeb (or any other GOP) were to stand up and say "yes climate change is real, yes humanity has played a large part in it, and yes we need to address it" I'd be much more inclined to vote for them.

Or, you know, you could vote for a Democratic candidate.  They all seem to be on the right side of this particular issue.
I thought that was a conclusion too obvious to state.

willikers

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #157 on: July 30, 2015, 10:35:43 AM »
I like Bernie. Income inequality and corporate influence on politics are big problems. He's probably a little too extreme to win or get everything he wants done even if he does win, but at least he stands for something other than whatever will get him the most donations.

I really fail to see how he can be considered extreme, when none of what he says is remotely new to the history of our country, aside from Healthcare. He is basically an older, frailer, Jewish version of Teddy Roosevelt.
 
They Both called for:

Strict limits and disclosure requirements on political campaign contributions
Registration of lobbyists
Recording and publication of Congressional committee proceedings
A National Health Service to include all existing government medical agencies.
Social insurance, to provide for the elderly, the unemployed, and the disabled
A minimum wage law for women
An eight hour workday
A federal securities commission
Farm relief
Workers' compensation for work-related injuries
An inheritance tax
A Constitutional amendment to allow a Federal income tax

Teddy was always my favorite president anyway, so given the similarities in their platforms above, I am all for Sanders in 2016.

Tyson

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #158 on: July 30, 2015, 10:45:15 AM »
And then there are the net negative tax payers (otherwise known as the Democratic base) .   

I don't even know where you're going with this. Are you suggesting that people who receive government benefits because they are poor must therefore be Democrats, because all Republicans virtuously hate government? Dude, let me assure you that poor Republicans with no earned income are not taking their Medicaid and SNAP benefits and returning them to the government out of ideological purity. WTF?

The difference is that poor Republicans who receive government benefits are all good, god-fearing, virtuous souls who are really hard workers and are just down on their luck, not like those filthy Democrats in the cities who all live on handouts and have no interest in bettering themselves while they pump out children for the welfare check.

(I feel I should explicitly point out at this point that I'm being sarcastic.)

Well, sarcasm or not, this IS how the republicans view the situation.  Handouts to rural (republicans) are just a temporary thing for people that are "down on their luck", and the city folk (democrats) are hardcore long term moochers. 

Taking handouts is bad, but IOKIYAR (It's OK If You Are A Republican). 

forummm

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #159 on: July 30, 2015, 10:49:36 AM »
I like Bernie. Income inequality and corporate influence on politics are big problems. He's probably a little too extreme to win or get everything he wants done even if he does win, but at least he stands for something other than whatever will get him the most donations.

I really fail to see how he can be considered extreme, when none of what he says is remotely new to the history of our country, aside from Healthcare. He is basically an older, frailer, Jewish version of Teddy Roosevelt.
 
They Both called for:

Strict limits and disclosure requirements on political campaign contributions
Registration of lobbyists
Recording and publication of Congressional committee proceedings
A National Health Service to include all existing government medical agencies.
Social insurance, to provide for the elderly, the unemployed, and the disabled
A minimum wage law for women
An eight hour workday
A federal securities commission
Farm relief
Workers' compensation for work-related injuries
An inheritance tax
A Constitutional amendment to allow a Federal income tax

Teddy was always my favorite president anyway, so given the similarities in their platforms above, I am all for Sanders in 2016.

I hadn't thought about this comparison. You could also say that they both were against corporations that had huge negative social externalities due to their size (Teddy was a trust buster and Bernie wants to break up banks that are "too big to fail" so we don't have to bail out ones that do fail). They are both in favor of protecting the environment (Teddy was "the conservation president"). They were both in favor of allowing hunting.

Chris22

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #160 on: July 30, 2015, 10:52:00 AM »
Oh, how quickly we like to revise history.  The biggot[sic] vote?  You know who else was anti-gay marriage in 2004?  Obama.  Hillary.  A majority in California.  Were all of these people biggots[sic] too?

Yes.

Of course, Obama and Clinton never seemed to be nearly as earnest about it as most of the Republicans... their position was more due to opportunistic political cynicsm than deep, evil conviction and therefore slightly less bad.

Exactly.  I would guess that Obama, at least, has been in favor of marriage equality for a while now, but felt it was too politically risky.  But yes, publicly, they definitely were bigots.

I don't know if that is supposed to condemn him or defend him.  Frankly, I think being against something you think is wrong but not wanting to speak up against it for political expediency is at least as bad as being for that wrong thing.  The word "unprincipled" comes to mind.

Yes, political wind testing. It's a shame, but all politicians do it. Like George HW Bush is pro-choice in his beliefs, but has decided to hide his true feelings for political expediency. And Scott DesJarlais is pro-choice (at least when it comes to him and the abortions he's made his mistresses and wife get) but is pro-life in his voting and public record.

Or every single Republican candidate on climate change.  I do not for one second believe that they all think it's a hoax.  But none of them has the guts to say it out loud.  Even Jeb sort-of says it maybe-sorta-yeah-humans-maybe-have-something-to-do-with-it, but golly, that doesn't mean we should actually take action.

I think there's a few things going on here. 

Number one, once you acknowledge the issue, you have to take the next step towards the solution, and the solutions are super-politicized.  I actually find it pretty funny in some cases.  For instance, if you hate pollution, one thing you can push is electric vehicles (assuming you're also pushing for clean power).  Okay, great.  Well, like any bleeding-edge technology, it's expensive.  Even a cheap electric car like a Leaf is a $20k+ product.  And then you need to incentivize the purchase, well, you do that with a tax credit.  However, now you've put yourself in a spot where you're giving tax credits to people who can afford $20k-$100k+ purchases, or "the rich".  Which makes the liberal head spin, which do we hate more, tax credits for rich people or pollution??  CA has started rolling back tax credits for "rich people" which is going to have an adverse affect on EV ownership.  The whole thing is silly. 

And then you get to things like CAFE.  Everyone "knows" that you can't raise the gas tax, because that would A) hurt poor people and B) be very unpolular politically.  Okay.  So what do we do?  I know, make the kinds of vehicles that burn lots of gas more expensive!  The problem is, that doesn't necessarily drive down fuel usage, because once you make that initial purchase, you can burn as much fuel as you like.  It's like trying to fix obesity by making forks more expensive.  It doesn't really work. 

I also think there's a distinct failure in government to be able to execute a good cost/benefit study and then act on it.  For instance, if you set a target that a power plant must be 99.99% clean, maybe it costs $100 to get it to 99.95% clean, and $1M to get it from 99.95% to 99.99%.  Everyone can agree to spend the $100, but I don't trust government to know enough to stop there.  Under the "solve global warming at all costs" banner, I don't trust them. 

So basically, from my perspective, if you let the nose of the GW camel into the tent, you've opened the door up to some incredibly poor policy decisions.  Hell, look at CAFE.  You know what caused the explosion of SUVs?  CAFE.  Why?  Because congress can't get out of its own way to predict 2nd order effects.  "Oh, hey, people buy lots of cars, and trucks are used for work.  Trucks are defined as having traits A, B, and C.  We'll make cars have to have much better mileage, but trucks less so."  Well any idiot can predict that carmakers would just make cars with attributes A, B, and C and classify them as trucks and Americans would buy them in droves so they're cheaper, but Congress isn't just any idiot because they either couldn't, or didn't care.

And then don't get me started on other initiatives like Cap and Trade and GW credits and such, which are basically just a giant scam. 


So it's a completely imperfect and slightly ridiculous stance to take, that GW is not happening, but I think it's really just a defense against having to compromise on garbage policy.  I also think the left/GW is happening crowd is suffering from a lot of hysteria inflation.  I've seen lots of articles lately on "GW is already happening it's probably too late!!! but we must do something anyways" that just becomes a laughable message.  Couple that with climate scientists' habit of making definitive pronouncements that turn out to be false or crap science, and you open the door to a lot of skepticism.


Anyways, just some rambling on the subject.

Eric

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #161 on: July 30, 2015, 10:57:52 AM »

I hope Christie is eliminated soon.  The comment about pot last week was moronic. 

Not sure what I'll do if it's Bush.  Really don't want another Bush or Clinton.
I've been thinking about that a lot lately.  Is it fair (or even sensible) to not vote for someone just because their husband or brother was president? 
Don't get me wrong, I'm not a fan of political dynasties, but would not avoid voting for someone just because of their family name.

My opinion of Clinton continues to drop so I'll avoid her.  At least Bernie Sanders is honest about what he is.

If Jeb Bush is similar to his brother, I'd prefer someone else.  I'm waiting for the debates on him, but that's my initial take.

Bernie Sanders is honest, and says he wants to make guns made to kill people illegal. Most can assume that means handguns and non-hunting rifles. He won't become president because a lot of his stance on this. Maybe he can become governor of California now that the governator is done.

Why would that matter?  It's not like he's picking up any (R) votes anyway, since he's a dreaded socialist!  Do you think there are a lot of swing voters who own AR-15s or love gun violence?

Chris22

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #162 on: July 30, 2015, 11:00:00 AM »

I hope Christie is eliminated soon.  The comment about pot last week was moronic. 

Not sure what I'll do if it's Bush.  Really don't want another Bush or Clinton.
I've been thinking about that a lot lately.  Is it fair (or even sensible) to not vote for someone just because their husband or brother was president? 
Don't get me wrong, I'm not a fan of political dynasties, but would not avoid voting for someone just because of their family name.

My opinion of Clinton continues to drop so I'll avoid her.  At least Bernie Sanders is honest about what he is.

If Jeb Bush is similar to his brother, I'd prefer someone else.  I'm waiting for the debates on him, but that's my initial take.

Bernie Sanders is honest, and says he wants to make guns made to kill people illegal. Most can assume that means handguns and non-hunting rifles. He won't become president because a lot of his stance on this. Maybe he can become governor of California now that the governator is done.

Why would that matter?  It's not like he's picking up any (R) votes anyway, since he's a dreaded socialist!  Do you think there are a lot of swing voters who own AR-15s or love gun violence?

First of all, I find the bolded offensive that you appear to think everyone who wants to preserve the 2A "loves gun violence" and that just tells me you don't want to understand the issue, BUT, it's not just ARs, it's likely pistols as well, and yes, there are plenty of people who are firearms enthusiasts who own pistols and even ARs who may be interested in voting Dem.

Eric

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #163 on: July 30, 2015, 11:02:08 AM »
I'm sorry you're offended by something I didn't say.

forummm

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #164 on: July 30, 2015, 11:04:17 AM »
Or every single Republican candidate on climate change.  I do not for one second believe that they all think it's a hoax.  But none of them has the guts to say it out loud.  Even Jeb sort-of says it maybe-sorta-yeah-humans-maybe-have-something-to-do-with-it, but golly, that doesn't mean we should actually take action.

I think there's a few things going on here. 

Number one, once you acknowledge the issue, you have to take the next step towards the solution, and the solutions are super-politicized.  I actually find it pretty funny in some cases.  For instance, if you hate pollution, one thing you can push is electric vehicles (assuming you're also pushing for clean power).  Okay, great.  Well, like any bleeding-edge technology, it's expensive.  Even a cheap electric car like a Leaf is a $20k+ product.  And then you need to incentivize the purchase, well, you do that with a tax credit.  However, now you've put yourself in a spot where you're giving tax credits to people who can afford $20k-$100k+ purchases, or "the rich".  Which makes the liberal head spin, which do we hate more, tax credits for rich people or pollution??  CA has started rolling back tax credits for "rich people" which is going to have an adverse affect on EV ownership.  The whole thing is silly. 

And then you get to things like CAFE.  Everyone "knows" that you can't raise the gas tax, because that would A) hurt poor people and B) be very unpolular politically.  Okay.  So what do we do?  I know, make the kinds of vehicles that burn lots of gas more expensive!  The problem is, that doesn't necessarily drive down fuel usage, because once you make that initial purchase, you can burn as much fuel as you like.  It's like trying to fix obesity by making forks more expensive.  It doesn't really work. 

I also think there's a distinct failure in government to be able to execute a good cost/benefit study and then act on it.  For instance, if you set a target that a power plant must be 99.99% clean, maybe it costs $100 to get it to 99.95% clean, and $1M to get it from 99.95% to 99.99%.  Everyone can agree to spend the $100, but I don't trust government to know enough to stop there.  Under the "solve global warming at all costs" banner, I don't trust them. 

So basically, from my perspective, if you let the nose of the GW camel into the tent, you've opened the door up to some incredibly poor policy decisions.  Hell, look at CAFE.  You know what caused the explosion of SUVs?  CAFE.  Why?  Because congress can't get out of its own way to predict 2nd order effects.  "Oh, hey, people buy lots of cars, and trucks are used for work.  Trucks are defined as having traits A, B, and C.  We'll make cars have to have much better mileage, but trucks less so."  Well any idiot can predict that carmakers would just make cars with attributes A, B, and C and classify them as trucks and Americans would buy them in droves so they're cheaper, but Congress isn't just any idiot because they either couldn't, or didn't care.

And then don't get me started on other initiatives like Cap and Trade and GW credits and such, which are basically just a giant scam. 


So it's a completely imperfect and slightly ridiculous stance to take, that GW is not happening, but I think it's really just a defense against having to compromise on garbage policy.  I also think the left/GW is happening crowd is suffering from a lot of hysteria inflation.  I've seen lots of articles lately on "GW is already happening it's probably too late!!! but we must do something anyways" that just becomes a laughable message.  Couple that with climate scientists' habit of making definitive pronouncements that turn out to be false or crap science, and you open the door to a lot of skepticism.


Anyways, just some rambling on the subject.

So who politicized all the solutions? Oh right.

All you'd need to do is create a carbon tax, and send a check to every American for the amount of the tax per capita. It would be revenue neutral (minus the postage stamp). No "job killing" or other BS like that. It would provide the proper incentives for people to change their own behavior at the time of their choosing and in the most efficient manner based on price signals. Hey, suddenly owning an electric car is even more inexpensive over the long run without subsidies--we should buy one! Hey, solar energy is cheaper for us to buy than this coal stuff--let's install a ton of those and send the power to our customers! Etc. It's a tax that sunsets itself. It sounds like a very free-market, economically conservative approach to the problem.

The real problem is that all the Republicans get huge amounts of bribes campaign contributions from the oil, gas, and coal industries--industries that would like to continue to make money without paying for the consequences of their actions.

willikers

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #165 on: July 30, 2015, 11:04:22 AM »
I like Bernie. Income inequality and corporate influence on politics are big problems. He's probably a little too extreme to win or get everything he wants done even if he does win, but at least he stands for something other than whatever will get him the most donations.

I really fail to see how he can be considered extreme, when none of what he says is remotely new to the history of our country, aside from Healthcare. He is basically an older, frailer, Jewish version of Teddy Roosevelt.
 
They Both called for:

Strict limits and disclosure requirements on political campaign contributions
Registration of lobbyists
Recording and publication of Congressional committee proceedings
A National Health Service to include all existing government medical agencies.
Social insurance, to provide for the elderly, the unemployed, and the disabled
A minimum wage law for women
An eight hour workday
A federal securities commission
Farm relief
Workers' compensation for work-related injuries
An inheritance tax
A Constitutional amendment to allow a Federal income tax

Teddy was always my favorite president anyway, so given the similarities in their platforms above, I am all for Sanders in 2016.

I hadn't thought about this comparison. You could also say that they both were against corporations that had huge negative social externalities due to their size (Teddy was a trust buster and Bernie wants to break up banks that are "too big to fail" so we don't have to bail out ones that do fail). They are both in favor of protecting the environment (Teddy was "the conservation president"). They were both in favor of allowing hunting.

This^^^

Chris22

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #166 on: July 30, 2015, 11:04:58 AM »
I'm sorry you're offended by something I didn't say.

You pretty clearly did, dude. 

willikers

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #167 on: July 30, 2015, 11:06:49 AM »
Or every single Republican candidate on climate change.  I do not for one second believe that they all think it's a hoax.  But none of them has the guts to say it out loud.  Even Jeb sort-of says it maybe-sorta-yeah-humans-maybe-have-something-to-do-with-it, but golly, that doesn't mean we should actually take action.

I think there's a few things going on here. 

Number one, once you acknowledge the issue, you have to take the next step towards the solution, and the solutions are super-politicized.  I actually find it pretty funny in some cases.  For instance, if you hate pollution, one thing you can push is electric vehicles (assuming you're also pushing for clean power).  Okay, great.  Well, like any bleeding-edge technology, it's expensive.  Even a cheap electric car like a Leaf is a $20k+ product.  And then you need to incentivize the purchase, well, you do that with a tax credit.  However, now you've put yourself in a spot where you're giving tax credits to people who can afford $20k-$100k+ purchases, or "the rich".  Which makes the liberal head spin, which do we hate more, tax credits for rich people or pollution??  CA has started rolling back tax credits for "rich people" which is going to have an adverse affect on EV ownership.  The whole thing is silly. 

And then you get to things like CAFE.  Everyone "knows" that you can't raise the gas tax, because that would A) hurt poor people and B) be very unpolular politically.  Okay.  So what do we do?  I know, make the kinds of vehicles that burn lots of gas more expensive!  The problem is, that doesn't necessarily drive down fuel usage, because once you make that initial purchase, you can burn as much fuel as you like.  It's like trying to fix obesity by making forks more expensive.  It doesn't really work. 

I also think there's a distinct failure in government to be able to execute a good cost/benefit study and then act on it.  For instance, if you set a target that a power plant must be 99.99% clean, maybe it costs $100 to get it to 99.95% clean, and $1M to get it from 99.95% to 99.99%.  Everyone can agree to spend the $100, but I don't trust government to know enough to stop there.  Under the "solve global warming at all costs" banner, I don't trust them. 

So basically, from my perspective, if you let the nose of the GW camel into the tent, you've opened the door up to some incredibly poor policy decisions.  Hell, look at CAFE.  You know what caused the explosion of SUVs?  CAFE.  Why?  Because congress can't get out of its own way to predict 2nd order effects.  "Oh, hey, people buy lots of cars, and trucks are used for work.  Trucks are defined as having traits A, B, and C.  We'll make cars have to have much better mileage, but trucks less so."  Well any idiot can predict that carmakers would just make cars with attributes A, B, and C and classify them as trucks and Americans would buy them in droves so they're cheaper, but Congress isn't just any idiot because they either couldn't, or didn't care.

And then don't get me started on other initiatives like Cap and Trade and GW credits and such, which are basically just a giant scam. 


So it's a completely imperfect and slightly ridiculous stance to take, that GW is not happening, but I think it's really just a defense against having to compromise on garbage policy.  I also think the left/GW is happening crowd is suffering from a lot of hysteria inflation.  I've seen lots of articles lately on "GW is already happening it's probably too late!!! but we must do something anyways" that just becomes a laughable message.  Couple that with climate scientists' habit of making definitive pronouncements that turn out to be false or crap science, and you open the door to a lot of skepticism.


Anyways, just some rambling on the subject.

So who politicized all the solutions? Oh right.

All you'd need to do is create a carbon tax, and send a check to every American for the amount of the tax per capita. It would be revenue neutral (minus the postage stamp). No "job killing" or other BS like that. It would provide the proper incentives for people to change their own behavior at the time of their choosing and in the most efficient manner based on price signals. Hey, suddenly owning an electric car is even more inexpensive over the long run without subsidies--we should buy one! Hey, solar energy is cheaper for us to buy than this coal stuff--let's install a ton of those and send the power to our customers! Etc. It's a tax that sunsets itself. It sounds like a very free-market, economically conservative approach to the problem.

The real problem is that all the Republicans get huge amounts of bribes campaign contributions from the oil, gas, and coal industries--industries that would like to continue to make money without paying for the consequences of their actions.

Also this^^^

DeltaBond

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #168 on: July 30, 2015, 11:07:28 AM »
If you want a good sampling of this poll, might find a way to show it to more on these forums.  Today is the first day I've come to this section of the forum website.

Spitfire

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #169 on: July 30, 2015, 11:10:56 AM »
I like Bernie. Income inequality and corporate influence on politics are big problems. He's probably a little too extreme to win or get everything he wants done even if he does win, but at least he stands for something other than whatever will get him the most donations.

I really fail to see how he can be considered extreme, when none of what he says is remotely new to the history of our country, aside from Healthcare. He is basically an older, frailer, Jewish version of Teddy Roosevelt.
 
They Both called for:

Strict limits and disclosure requirements on political campaign contributions
Registration of lobbyists
Recording and publication of Congressional committee proceedings
A National Health Service to include all existing government medical agencies.
Social insurance, to provide for the elderly, the unemployed, and the disabled
A minimum wage law for women
An eight hour workday
A federal securities commission
Farm relief
Workers' compensation for work-related injuries
An inheritance tax
A Constitutional amendment to allow a Federal income tax

Teddy was always my favorite president anyway, so given the similarities in their platforms above, I am all for Sanders in 2016.

I hadn't thought about this comparison. You could also say that they both were against corporations that had huge negative social externalities due to their size (Teddy was a trust buster and Bernie wants to break up banks that are "too big to fail" so we don't have to bail out ones that do fail). They are both in favor of protecting the environment (Teddy was "the conservation president"). They were both in favor of allowing hunting.

Didn't know enough to make that comparison, but I'm glad that his views are echoing someone who has been president. Gives me some hope that he can do it. In comparison to recent politicians, he does seem extreme to me.

zoltani

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #170 on: July 30, 2015, 11:14:42 AM »
If Bernie were in Europe he would never be considered a socialist. He is pretty much a middle left candidate, but we have been pulled too far right, so he seems extreme.

Eric

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #171 on: July 30, 2015, 11:24:06 AM »
I'm sorry you're offended by something I didn't say.

You pretty clearly did, dude.

I said the three words "love gun violence".  You extrapolated that to mean that anyone following the constitution must love gun violence.  I'm not sure how you came to that conclusion, and stated as such.  So no, I pretty clearly did not.  I support the 2nd amendment.  I think citizens should be allowed to own and shoot firearms.  I also support reasonable restrictions on gun ownership.  And so does everyone.  Even the NRA isn't out there protesting that felons should be able to buy guns, right?  My reasonable restrictions may be different than yours, but we both have them.

My statement was that I doubt there are swing voters that love gun violence, but I'm not ruling it out.  There are certainly non-swing voters that do.  I'm not sure how that's even up for debate.  If you're in favor of having no restrictions whatsoever on gun ownership (and these people are out there), then ipso facto you must be in favor of gun violence.

Is that more clear?

MDM

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #172 on: July 30, 2015, 11:26:04 AM »
Not a lot of overlap between those who believe gay marriage is wrong and people will burn in hell for it, and those who believe global warming will create hell on earth, is there?

infogoon

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #173 on: July 30, 2015, 11:28:54 AM »
I really fail to see how he can be considered extreme, when none of what he says is remotely new to the history of our country, aside from Healthcare. He is basically an older, frailer, Jewish version of Teddy Roosevelt.

If he gets boxed out of the Democratic nomination, I fervently hope he runs as a Bull Moose.

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #174 on: July 30, 2015, 11:41:02 AM »
So who politicized all the solutions? Oh right.

All you'd need to do is create a carbon tax, and send a check to every American for the amount of the tax per capita. It would be revenue neutral (minus the postage stamp). No "job killing" or other BS like that. It would provide the proper incentives for people to change their own behavior at the time of their choosing and in the most efficient manner based on price signals. Hey, suddenly owning an electric car is even more inexpensive over the long run without subsidies--we should buy one! Hey, solar energy is cheaper for us to buy than this coal stuff--let's install a ton of those and send the power to our customers! Etc. It's a tax that sunsets itself. It sounds like a very free-market, economically conservative approach to the problem.

The real problem is that all the Republicans get huge amounts of bribes campaign contributions from the oil, gas, and coal industries--industries that would like to continue to make money without paying for the consequences of their actions.

Right on. It's hard to agree upon comprehensive action though when all but a handful of Republican politicians won't even admit that action needs to be taken. There are plenty of conservative arguments for a carbon tax (as a very quick example: http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2013/02/benefits-of-carbon-tax). Sometimes I hope that all the uproar over the EPA clean power plan will convince conservatives to push for a more logical options like a carbon tax. But too bad so many of them have pledged to never raise taxes ever for anything ever. The clean power plan is not ideal, but something has to happen.

I know you didn't want to get started Chris22, but I'm curious why you think Cap and Trade and GW credits (?) are such a scam. Was it that 2009 bill specifically, or the concept more broadly?

I can't support any republican candidate who isn't willing to address this issue (so maybe Lindsey Graham?)

willikers

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #175 on: July 30, 2015, 11:43:31 AM »
I really fail to see how he can be considered extreme, when none of what he says is remotely new to the history of our country, aside from Healthcare. He is basically an older, frailer, Jewish version of Teddy Roosevelt.

If he gets boxed out of the Democratic nomination, I fervently hope he runs as a Bull Moose.

He has stated that he will not run against Hillary if she gets the nomination. He respects her and won't split the vote if it would jeopardize a win in the general election.

sol

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #176 on: July 30, 2015, 12:03:13 PM »
a more logical options like a carbon tax. But too bad so many of them have pledged to never raise taxes ever for anything ever.

How would you feel about a revenue neutral carbon tax, say one that cuts income taxes by the exact dollar amount the government is going to collect in carbon taxes?

That's not raising taxes, that's just taxing different stuff to get the same amount of taxes.

trailrated

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #177 on: July 30, 2015, 12:06:30 PM »
One of my favorite passages from World War Z (the awesome book not the shitty movie)

“Oh C'mon. Can you ever "solve" poverty? Can you ever "solve" crime? Can you ever "solve" disease, unemployment, war or any other societal herpes? Hell no. All you can hope for is to make them manageable enough to allow people to get on with their lives. That's not cynicism, that's maturity. You can't stop the rain. All you can do is just build a roof that you hope won't leak, or at least leak on the people who are gonna vote for you.”

Jack

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #178 on: July 30, 2015, 12:25:13 PM »
Oh, how quickly we like to revise history.  The biggot[sic] vote?  You know who else was anti-gay marriage in 2004?  Obama.  Hillary.  A majority in California.  Were all of these people biggots[sic] too?

Yes.

Of course, Obama and Clinton never seemed to be nearly as earnest about it as most of the Republicans... their position was more due to opportunistic political cynicsm than deep, evil conviction and therefore slightly less bad.

Exactly.  I would guess that Obama, at least, has been in favor of marriage equality for a while now, but felt it was too politically risky.  But yes, publicly, they definitely were bigots.

I don't know if that is supposed to condemn him or defend him.  Frankly, I think being against something you think is wrong but not wanting to speak up against it for political expediency is at least as bad as being for that wrong thing.  The word "unprincipled" comes to mind.

Let me be clear: Obama is indeed an unprincipled shithead with few redeeming virtues (ditto Hillary). However, that's still an improvement compared to authoritarian theocrats like Bush II, Santorum, Perry, Walker, Jindal, etc.


So who politicized all the solutions? Oh right.

All you'd need to do is create a carbon tax, and send a check to every American for the amount of the tax per capita. It would be revenue neutral (minus the postage stamp). No "job killing" or other BS like that. It would provide the proper incentives for people to change their own behavior at the time of their choosing and in the most efficient manner based on price signals. Hey, suddenly owning an electric car is even more inexpensive over the long run without subsidies--we should buy one! Hey, solar energy is cheaper for us to buy than this coal stuff--let's install a ton of those and send the power to our customers! Etc. It's a tax that sunsets itself. It sounds like a very free-market, economically conservative approach to the problem.

The real problem is that all the Republicans get huge amounts of bribes campaign contributions from the oil, gas, and coal industries--industries that would like to continue to make money without paying for the consequences of their actions.

Exactly. The only reason there is allegedly no solution to a whole bunch of problems from health care to climate change, is that every time the Democrats come up with a free-market solution the Republicans reject it!

By all rights, any "free market capitalist" Republican should absolutely LOVE:
  • carbon credits
  • RomneyObamacare (at least in comparison to the previous status quo)
  • stricter food labeling standards (since perfect competition requires perfect information)
  • and any other policies that minimize externalities and market inefficiencies.

But by-and-large they don't, because either (A) they prioritize bullshit political football over good policy and oppose good ideas just because Democrats like them, and/or (B) they're actually just corrupt fucks beholden to oligarchs.

This is not to say that I condemn all Republicans! Far from it; some of them aren't bad at all. For example, I voted for Jon Huntsman in the Republican primary last time, and would have been thrilled to vote for him in the general election if he hadn't lost. (Instead, I ended up voting for Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate.)

If you want a good sampling of this poll, might find a way to show it to more on these forums.  Today is the first day I've come to this section of the forum website.

Use the "Show unread posts since last visit" link at the top of any page.

Hard to say since we don't know who will all drop out of the race between now and then.  But is anyone surprised that Bernie "Socialist" Sanders and Hillary "Benghazi" Clinton are the favorites here?

I just have to say, my very least favorite form of political "debate" takes the form of silly labels that are meant to reduce a candidate to one (usually erroneous) simplistic facet.

Well, maybe that's tied with the ridiculously persistent third-grade level name calling, e.g. "Obummer".

Bernie is an admitted socialist.  Hillary's ineptitude got 4 Americans killed including Ambassador Chris Stevens in Benghazi.  Silly labels?  Hardly.  It's called the truth.  You're 48...should be mature enough by now to handle it.

There's a difference between describing someone and using a label pejoratively to attack them. The latter is childish, disingenuous, and exactly what you did.

Bernie calls himself a socialist -- which isn't true by European or historical standards, as others have pointed out -- but so what? Bernie-style pseudo-socialism is exactly what we fucking need right about now!

(Hillary, of course, deserves pejorative labels.)

beltim

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #179 on: July 30, 2015, 12:37:27 PM »
Does anyone really think that Hillary has a chance to fairly win the general election?  She has the highest negatives I've ever seen.

That's largely because people haven't heard of so many of the Republican candidates.  She's more popular than any of the Republican candidates who more than 50% of Americans have an opinion about:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/184346/sanders-surges-clinton-sags-favorability.aspx?utm_source=Politics&utm_medium=newsfeed&utm_campaign=tiles

Interestingly, Ben Carson has the highest net favorability rating (positive - negative) at +12, but 64% of people don't know of him or have an opinion.  Bernie Sanders has a positive net favorability, but again most people don't have an opinion, similar to Carly Fiorina and John Kasich.

by_1008

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #180 on: July 30, 2015, 12:41:35 PM »
a more logical options like a carbon tax. But too bad so many of them have pledged to never raise taxes ever for anything ever.

How would you feel about a revenue neutral carbon tax, say one that cuts income taxes by the exact dollar amount the government is going to collect in carbon taxes?

That's not raising taxes, that's just taxing different stuff to get the same amount of taxes.

I would be all for it! Sorry if it wasn't clear from my post that I am very much pro market mechanisms to regulate GHGs. I haven't really though too much about what would be my most preferred offsetting tax cut, but income tax seems like a logical choice. I figure if we are arguing which tax to offset, we are in a better position than we are today.

Midwest

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #181 on: July 30, 2015, 12:42:57 PM »


My statement was that I doubt there are swing voters that love gun violence, but I'm not ruling it out.  There are certainly non-swing voters that do.  I'm not sure how that's even up for debate.  If you're in favor of having no restrictions whatsoever on gun ownership (and these people are out there), then ipso facto you must be in favor of gun violence.


Do you mean more restrictions or some restrictions?

PS - Don't know anyone in favor of gun violence.

beltim

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #182 on: July 30, 2015, 12:49:50 PM »
Does anyone really think that Hillary has a chance to fairly win the general election?  She has the highest negatives I've ever seen.

Oh, and to actually answer your question, yes, Clinton would be a favorite against any of the top contenders in the Republican field.  It would be close against Bush (Clinton currently polling 4 points ahead of Bush), but a landslide against some of the others: Clinton is currently +15 against Trump, +9 against Cruz, and +11 against Christie.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Eric

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #183 on: July 30, 2015, 12:56:31 PM »


My statement was that I doubt there are swing voters that love gun violence, but I'm not ruling it out.  There are certainly non-swing voters that do.  I'm not sure how that's even up for debate.  If you're in favor of having no restrictions whatsoever on gun ownership (and these people are out there), then ipso facto you must be in favor of gun violence.


Do you mean more restrictions or some restrictions?

PS - Don't know anyone in favor of gun violence.

No, I mean exactly what I said.  People in favor of no restrictions are also favor gun violence.  I'm not sure how it could be viewed otherwise.

DeltaBond

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #184 on: July 30, 2015, 01:20:57 PM »
Does anyone really think that Hillary has a chance to fairly win the general election?  She has the highest negatives I've ever seen.

Oh, and to actually answer your question, yes, Clinton would be a favorite against any of the top contenders in the Republican field.  It would be close against Bush (Clinton currently polling 4 points ahead of Bush), but a landslide against some of the others: Clinton is currently +15 against Trump, +9 against Cruz, and +11 against Christie.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

No, I don't think she can win the presidential election.

Jack

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #185 on: July 30, 2015, 01:25:01 PM »
People in favor of no restrictions are also favor gun violence.  I'm not sure how it could be viewed otherwise.

Wow... just wow.

That's so stupid and wrongheaded I don't even know how to refute it. It'd be like trying to explain the concept that 2 + 2 = 4 to someone who refuses to accept the definition of "2."

On second thought, I'll take a stab at it via analogy:

Your statement is like claiming that anybody in favor of no restrictions on pencils is also in favor of hate speech. Or that anybody in favor of no restrictions on water is also in favor of drowning. It just flat-out doesn't make any fucking sense.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2015, 01:27:59 PM by Jack »

dsmexpat

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #186 on: July 30, 2015, 01:27:57 PM »
As someone who knew Sean Smith, who died in Benghazi, I am always disappointed by the willingness of people to politicize his tragedy.

Eric

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #187 on: July 30, 2015, 01:30:59 PM »
People in favor of no restrictions are also favor gun violence.  I'm not sure how it could be viewed otherwise.

Wow... just wow.

That's so stupid and wrongheaded I don't even know how to refute it. It'd be like trying to explain the concept that 2 + 2 = 4 to someone who refuses to accept the definition of "2."

On second thought, I'll take a stab at it via analogy:

Your statement is like claiming that anybody in favor of no restrictions on pencils is also in favor of hate speech. Or that anybody in favor of no restrictions on water is also in favor of drowning. It just flat-out doesn't make any fucking sense.

I'm confused.  Do you think allowing felons, domestic abusers, and the mentally ill to purchase any and all guns without restriction would not increase violent gun deaths?

forummm

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #188 on: July 30, 2015, 01:45:28 PM »
Does anyone really think that Hillary has a chance to fairly win the general election?  She has the highest negatives I've ever seen.

Oh, and to actually answer your question, yes, Clinton would be a favorite against any of the top contenders in the Republican field.  It would be close against Bush (Clinton currently polling 4 points ahead of Bush), but a landslide against some of the others: Clinton is currently +15 against Trump, +9 against Cruz, and +11 against Christie.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

The polls are basically name recognition at this point. They will change dramatically as the season wears on and people actually find out who the candidates are. I don't know what this will do the Hilary vs whomever races, other than to make some of them a lot tighter. At this point in the 2008 cycle Hilary was crushing everyone and people couldn't pronounce "Barack Obama".

Chris22

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #189 on: July 30, 2015, 01:52:08 PM »


My statement was that I doubt there are swing voters that love gun violence, but I'm not ruling it out.  There are certainly non-swing voters that do.  I'm not sure how that's even up for debate.  If you're in favor of having no restrictions whatsoever on gun ownership (and these people are out there), then ipso facto you must be in favor of gun violence.


Do you mean more restrictions or some restrictions?

PS - Don't know anyone in favor of gun violence.

No, I mean exactly what I said.  People in favor of no restrictions are also favor gun violence.  I'm not sure how it could be viewed otherwise.

Start with this.  Pick a mass shooting and explain what law would have prevented it and how.  Remember that the shooter is already violating a law by shooting people.  Use as a given that guns exist and you can't uninvent them.

nereo

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #190 on: July 30, 2015, 01:57:41 PM »
Does anyone really think that Hillary has a chance to fairly win the general election?  She has the highest negatives I've ever seen.

That's largely because people haven't heard of so many of the Republican candidates.  She's more popular than any of the Republican candidates who more than 50% of Americans have an opinion about:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/184346/sanders-surges-clinton-sags-favorability.aspx?utm_source=Politics&utm_medium=newsfeed&utm_campaign=tiles

Interestingly, Ben Carson has the highest net favorability rating (positive - negative) at +12, but 64% of people don't know of him or have an opinion.  Bernie Sanders has a positive net favorability, but again most people don't have an opinion, similar to Carly Fiorina and John Kasich.

The amount of negative numbers is largely irrelevant.  Our system doesn't allow you to vote directly "against" a certain candidate - it's only how many votes you can get.  And if the recent past is any indication, just over 50% of the eligible voters will actually vote.  To win any one state, you only need just about half the votes (there's usually a few independents in there).  Hillary's got very low numbers in states no Democrat is likely to carry anyway, but she had enough support in the other states to make her competitive.

Hillary's not my candidate.  But I'd vote for her over any of the half-dozen or so republican frontrunners who openly deny climate change or insuate that most Mexican immigrants are rapists, murderers and thieves.  That's the problem I see - while normally a negative opinion of one politician is enough to make many people vote for the "other guy/gal" - in this case so many of the GOP hopefuls are also viewed negatively by non-conservatives.

beltim

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #191 on: July 30, 2015, 01:58:05 PM »
Does anyone really think that Hillary has a chance to fairly win the general election?  She has the highest negatives I've ever seen.

Oh, and to actually answer your question, yes, Clinton would be a favorite against any of the top contenders in the Republican field.  It would be close against Bush (Clinton currently polling 4 points ahead of Bush), but a landslide against some of the others: Clinton is currently +15 against Trump, +9 against Cruz, and +11 against Christie.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

The polls are basically name recognition at this point. They will change dramatically as the season wears on and people actually find out who the candidates are. I don't know what this will do the Hilary vs whomever races, other than to make some of them a lot tighter. At this point in the 2008 cycle Hilary was crushing everyone and people couldn't pronounce "Barack Obama".

Well, that's oversimplifying it.  Yes, I agree the polls will change.  But very few people are going to change their mind about Clinton - her favorability rating is basically the same as it was 8 years ago, at the same time her advantage over Obama was about the same as her current advantage over Obama.  And, as I pointed out above, her favorability ratings – which are predictive of election results – are much better than most of the Republican field.

DeltaBond

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #192 on: July 30, 2015, 01:58:42 PM »
DH and I have been discussing candidates for the 2016 presidential election. I'm interested to see which way the MMM community is trending.

Hard to say since we don't know who will all drop out of the race between now and then.  But is anyone surprised that Bernie "Socialist" Sanders and Hillary "Benghazi" Clinton are the favorites here?

Honestly, I AM surprised.

Midwest

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #193 on: July 30, 2015, 01:59:05 PM »


My statement was that I doubt there are swing voters that love gun violence, but I'm not ruling it out.  There are certainly non-swing voters that do.  I'm not sure how that's even up for debate.  If you're in favor of having no restrictions whatsoever on gun ownership (and these people are out there), then ipso facto you must be in favor of gun violence.


Do you mean more restrictions or some restrictions?

PS - Don't know anyone in favor of gun violence.

No, I mean exactly what I said.  People in favor of no restrictions are also favor gun violence.  I'm not sure how it could be viewed otherwise.

Start with this.  Pick a mass shooting and explain what law would have prevented it and how.  Remember that the shooter is already violating a law by shooting people.  Use as a given that guns exist and you can't uninvent them.

South Carolina Church.  Increase effectiveness of existing background checks (not a new law).  FBI and local police allowed a disqualified person to purchase a firearm. 

Yes.  He may have purchased through other means but I'm fine with the Existing background check process.

Midwest

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #194 on: July 30, 2015, 02:00:16 PM »
insuate that most Mexican immigrants are rapists, murderers and thieves. 

Who besides trump?

Jack

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #195 on: July 30, 2015, 02:01:48 PM »
People in favor of no restrictions are also favor gun violence.  I'm not sure how it could be viewed otherwise.

Wow... just wow.

That's so stupid and wrongheaded I don't even know how to refute it. It'd be like trying to explain the concept that 2 + 2 = 4 to someone who refuses to accept the definition of "2."

On second thought, I'll take a stab at it via analogy:

Your statement is like claiming that anybody in favor of no restrictions on pencils is also in favor of hate speech. Or that anybody in favor of no restrictions on water is also in favor of drowning. It just flat-out doesn't make any fucking sense.

I'm confused.  Do you think allowing felons, domestic abusers, and the mentally ill to purchase any and all guns without restriction would not increase violent gun deaths?

Indeed you are confused. Specifically, you're failing to understand that it is in fact possible for someone to rationally believe that a policy is worthwhile despite it having some bad side effects. In this case, it's entirely possible for a rational person to believe that the lives lost due to such a policy would be worth it in return for the benefits of such a policy (perhaps not the least of which is that failing to take a hard line in upholding the 2nd Amendment encourages the government to abuse the rest of our rights).

Note that in this argument I'm accepting your premise that letting felons et. al. buy guns would in fact increase deaths associated with guns. The validity of such a premise is certainly debatable -- and Chris22 apparently wants to debate it -- but I'm saying that even if that premise is accepted, the argument in the previous paragraph still stands!

Also note that I'm not saying anyone has to agree with such a position (and I'm also not saying that I hold that position!), I'm just saying you can't reject the validity of its existence.

More to the point, we both know that it's no accident that you created a strawman to frame the issue in the most inflammatory way possible. There's a big fucking difference between prohibiting felons from buying guns and Chicago-style gun control and a wide range of possible policies between, but you're trying to create a false dichotomy that the only choices are zero guns or Somali-style anarchy.

beltim

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #196 on: July 30, 2015, 02:04:51 PM »
Does anyone really think that Hillary has a chance to fairly win the general election?  She has the highest negatives I've ever seen.

That's largely because people haven't heard of so many of the Republican candidates.  She's more popular than any of the Republican candidates who more than 50% of Americans have an opinion about:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/184346/sanders-surges-clinton-sags-favorability.aspx?utm_source=Politics&utm_medium=newsfeed&utm_campaign=tiles

Interestingly, Ben Carson has the highest net favorability rating (positive - negative) at +12, but 64% of people don't know of him or have an opinion.  Bernie Sanders has a positive net favorability, but again most people don't have an opinion, similar to Carly Fiorina and John Kasich.

The amount of negative numbers is largely irrelevant.  Our system doesn't allow you to vote directly "against" a certain candidate - it's only how many votes you can get.  And if the recent past is any indication, just over 50% of the eligible voters will actually vote.  To win any one state, you only need just about half the votes (there's usually a few independents in there).  Hillary's got very low numbers in states no Democrat is likely to carry anyway, but she had enough support in the other states to make her competitive.

Hillary's not my candidate.  But I'd vote for her over any of the half-dozen or so republican frontrunners who openly deny climate change or insuate that most Mexican immigrants are rapists, murderers and thieves.  That's the problem I see - while normally a negative opinion of one politician is enough to make many people vote for the "other guy/gal" - in this case so many of the GOP hopefuls are also viewed negatively by non-conservatives.

Right, that's why I talked about net favorability ratings.  Basically, the number of people who would vote for them minus the number who would vote against them.  And most of these polls are of "likely voters" in order to best predict the actual results of an election, taking into account who will actually vote.

Jack

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #197 on: July 30, 2015, 02:05:33 PM »
insuate that most Mexican immigrants are rapists, murderers and thieves. 

Who besides trump?

Any candidate who has failed to publicly and vociferously condemn him for it (in the way that they condemned him for dissing McCain). In this case, Trump's statements were so outrageous that silence is tacit agreement.

Midwest

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #198 on: July 30, 2015, 02:14:22 PM »
insuate that most Mexican immigrants are rapists, murderers and thieves. 

Who besides trump?

Any candidate who has failed to publicly and vociferously condemn him for it (in the way that they condemned him for dissing McCain). In this case, Trump's statements were so outrageous that silence is tacit agreement.

Failing to condemn someone is not the same as agreeing with them. 

Trump has a big mouth.  You can't attack every one of his outrageous statements.

regulator

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Re: 2016 Presidential Candidate
« Reply #199 on: July 30, 2015, 02:17:10 PM »
I think pretty much all presidential contenders are, by definition, shitbags.  Unless it would mean voting for Hillary, I intend to do what I usually do: vote for the candidate that is most likely to spend all their time tied up fighting with Congress so nothing gets done.