Author Topic: Predictions from the Black Swan  (Read 2049 times)

StarswirlTheMustached

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Predictions from the Black Swan
« on: January 28, 2013, 07:07:32 PM »
This is actually over a year old now, but I found it kind of interesting that Nissam Taleb of Black Swan fame was going out on a limb for specific predictions (even if nobody will remember by 2036 what it was he said)
http://www.economist.com/node/17509373?fsrc=scn/tw_ec/nassim_taleb_looks_at_what_will_break_and_what_wont

I wasn't aware Taleb was much of a doomer, but he seems to be expecting both a currency and a total market collapse. He does claim to have forseen the 2008 crash, but then, who didn't see it coming these days? Anyone plan on hedging themselves against Taleb's future, or any other that isn't outrageously optimistic?

BlueMR2

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Re: Predictions from the Black Swan
« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2013, 05:40:00 AM »
Anyone plan on hedging themselves against Taleb's future, or any other that isn't outrageously optimistic?

Always.  I'm going to be a couple extra years out from FI (according to normal mustachian projections) because I keep a "money-losing" stache in "safe" (to sudden economic swings, but vulnerable to inflation) locations.  Hopefully I never have need of it, but it's part of my personal risk/rewards calculation.  There's what appear to be another couple of bubbles right now, but it's always so hard to tell for sure until *after* they pop.  :-)