Minivan (Sienna) vs Prius V Analysis

[nht]

Minivan or not seems like a perennial topic in this forum and since I'm still debating what to replace my minivan with and the Prius V (wagon) was mentioned I decided to run some numbers from a money and environment perspective.  The van will be used as a daily commuter as well as kid taxi so the commuting costs are relevant as a separate thing.

Assumptions/Limitations: 

• I will compare new van vs new prius so I can attempt apples to apples.
• I will drive the car until it dies.  The assumption is 10+ years...but the cost of ownership numbers only go 5 years so...
• I cannot figure out the cost of the enviromental impact of rare earth mining so I'm going to ignore it even though I think it's significant.
• I will use carbon offsets to offset the increased GHG emissions from the van.  This isn't ideal but probably evens out the impact of rare earth mining.
• My daily commute to work is 14 miles total (it's actually a little less).  Part of that is taking kids to daycare so biking along major roads is not desired.
• Ignoring long trips our annual miles is about 7,000 for our old minivan or a little less than half the 15,000 miles national average.  Most of that is for travel soccer...which is a huge money pit but I digress.  Long trips offsets travel by air which costs more than driving.

Takeaways:

• The increased environmental impact for manufacturing the Prius is meaningless if you ignore rare earth mining.  It's 833 miles to break-even between a hybrid and a conventional vehicle.  As long as you don't total your car driving off the lot you're good.
• Carbon offsets are silly cheap. I found numbers along the lines of much less than $20/ton.  So I picked the one with max certification from green groups.  I still wonder if I did that right.  From an environmental impact perspective the difference is less than $50 per year...I can afford that and not feel the slightest guilt about owning a minivan.
• For 15K miles per year the cost delta over 5 years including offsets is $3,000. If you drive less, the delta is less.  IMHO this is a no brainer for anyone with 3+ kids because there's a big difference in comfort (aka space) and usability (again space) between the two vehicles.  With 2 kids it's probably still a good value or at least not a terrible one.
• All the studies are annoyingly coy with the CO2e costs of manufacture and you have to back out the numbers based on what is presented in g/km and lifetime km.  A simple chart would have been appreciated.  If I made math errors, this is most likely where I did it but the numbers ended up so small it probably doesn't matter.

Analysis:

	Prius V	Sienna
5yr Cost to Own (15K/yr)	$36,215.00	$38,987.00	$2,772.00		Edmunds.com
MPG Town	44	18	-26		Edmunds.com
MPG Highway	40	25	-15		Edmunds.com
MPG Average	42	21.5	-20.5		Edmunds.com
Annual Fuel 15K (gallons)	357.14	697.67	340.53
Annual Fuel 7K (gallons)	166.67	325.58	158.91
14 mile commute/yr - 3500mi (gallons)	83.33	162.79	79.46
Gas @$3.00 for commute/yr	$250.00	$488.37	$238.37
gCO2e/km	185	265	80		182,000 lifetime km (113K miles)
gCo2e g/km fuel	144.30	230.55	86.25
gCO2e g/mi fuel	232.23	371.03	138.81
Manufacturing gCO2e	7529500	6373250	1156250		Total g/km * 182,000km * % emission not fuel for 2010
Total km to breakeven			13406
Total miles to breakeven			833
Total CO2e per year commute (g)	812797	1298617	485820
Total CO2e per year - 15K miles (g)	3483416	5565500	2082084
Total CO2e per year - 7K miles (g)	1625594	2597233	971639
Cost/ton of CO2e offset - commute	$20	0.535523707	$10.71
Cost/ton of CO2e offset -15K miles/year	$20	2.295101601	$45.90
Cost/ton of CO2e offset - 7K miles/year	$20	1.071047414	$21.42
5yr cost delta with carbon offsets	$36,215.00	$39,216.51	$3,001.51

CO2e Data Source: https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Ricardo-AEA-lifecycle-emissions-low-carbon-technologies-April-2013.pdf[

[cacaoheart]

I did not do all of the math but noticed this:

"Total km to breakeven         13406      
Total miles to breakeven         833"

I believe you left off a zero on the miles calculation. 13,406km=8,330 miles. Still, not a long time to reach the break even point.

[MayDay]

Yup.  This is why I feel very little guilt over our Sienna, even with only 2 kids.  Add renting a van a few times over a decade for camping or larger groups or whatever, and you kill all your savings. 

Does the cost of ownership include insurance?  I assume it does. 

When we replace the van (hopefully not for another decade, and it is already 10 years old) we will either replace with another 10 year old Toyota or Honda van, or we will can something vastly cheaper like an Accord or Camry.  Al the in between type vehicles (Subaru, Mazda5, etc) cost more than a basic sedan, offer only marginally more space, and have considerably worse fuel economy.  So you might as well just get the van. 

[Gone Fishing]

I'm sure you put a lot of work into your numbers, but I stopped when you said the word "new".  There is almost certainly a sweet spot in the depreciation curve which could put one model way ahead of the other if purchased used.  For comparison purposes just use the same year model with similar mileage.   

You also mentioned kids but did not state how many you had.

We purchased a used Sienna when we anticipated having more than two children, but then decided to stop at two so we have been vehicle "heavy" for several years. Right now I am experimenting with getting the most of a Corolla by utilizing a hitch, hitch rack, utility trailer, roof rack and roof top cargo box.  So far I have been able to easily haul pretty much everything I could possibly need for a family road/camping trip (with virtually nothing in the passenger compartment other than passengers); however, the family has indicated that they would like a little more elbow room, so my intent is to replace the Sienna with a Camry when the time comes.  Try running a Camry through your model and see how it compares.  Depending on how many children you have it may be an excellent option.   

[James]

Prius V is much more expensive and less mpg than the standard prius, and the added space is really not that much. I would be very curious about the numbers comparing to standard prius... (we average 50mpg in our standard prius)


Are you comparing the exact same trim levels?

[nht]

All good points, I'll fiddle with it over the weekend when I have some more time. :)

For used it's harder to figure out cost of ownership so I punted on that. 

Trim levels is whatever Edmund uses for 5 year cost of ownership numbers.

Total number of kids is 3 so a 5 seater is viable.  I'll do Camry and Avalon maybe even though I'm leaning more toward Legacy.  The full sized sedans don't appear to sell very well so seem to depreciate faster than SUV/CUVs and have pretty wide rear seats.

So far the primary thing I learned was the environmental impact is fairly minimal regardless of what you pick so I'll just optimize for cost/value.

[cacaoheart]

The full sized sedans don't appear to sell very well so seem to depreciate faster than SUV/CUVs and have pretty wide rear seats.

If you're open to buying used and holding for a long time quick depreciation could be a good thing as long as it remains reliable.

[RelaxedGal]

And for that short of a commute you could consider the plug-in Ford C-max.

I didn't like what the battery did to the cargo space, but plug-ins definitely reduce gas use.  Assuming you have access to an outlet where you park.

[nht]

And for that short of a commute you could consider the plug-in Ford C-max.

I didn't like what the battery did to the cargo space, but plug-ins definitely reduce gas use.  Assuming you have access to an outlet where you park.

I think we're this close  --->  <-- to some significant battery improvements.  With a "buy and hold till it dies" strategy that leaves me thinking that being on the cutting edge of EV/Plugin Hybrids today is a good strategy only if you also use the "buy a 2 year old car and trade in often" option.

I don't have the research to show it but my gut feels like we're in that 2007ish timeframe equivalent for smartphones where we started seeing rapid increases in computing power in your phone.  It's also why, despite lusting after, I don't currently have solar on the roof.

Of course you can end up just waiting forever for the next best thing...

[Jack]

And for that short of a commute you could consider the plug-in Ford C-max.

I didn't like what the battery did to the cargo space, but plug-ins definitely reduce gas use.  Assuming you have access to an outlet where you park.

I think we're this close  --->  <-- to some significant battery improvements.  With a "buy and hold till it dies" strategy that leaves me thinking that being on the cutting edge of EV/Plugin Hybrids today is a good strategy only if you also use the "buy a 2 year old car and trade in often" option.

I don't have the research to show it but my gut feels like we're in that 2007ish timeframe equivalent for smartphones where we started seeing rapid increases in computing power in your phone.  It's also why, despite lusting after, I don't currently have solar on the roof.

Of course you can end up just waiting forever for the next best thing...

With a "buy and hold till it dies" strategy, my household's cars are all from the previous millennium...

[Money Badger]

We worked through mini van phase, now in Prius V...   Love the car for it's space inside (far bigger than standard Prius we also shopped).    The "V" was once the best selling family in Japan I saw on the prius forum...   And the utility is amazingly deceptive as we hauled a 9' tall grandfather clock once and have used it as our truck for big bulky items countless times.   And get 48MPG consistently still unless its on interstate which drops to 40MPG at 75-80MPH.    And I assure you a new 'V' will be cheaper than a new van and pay back monthly in fuel.   A used "V" toyota certified is my suggestion... A fill up costs around $20 for 450 miles.   Acceleration is also adequate with 4 people and vacation gear unless you enjoy a heavy foot/passing,  rush to the next light, etc.    90K miles on ours and heading to 200K+!

[Merrie]

We have a Sienna and 2 kids and are thinking about a 3rd, maybe. I realized recently that the question of 3 kids in the back of a car that doesn't have 3rd row seating is usually pitched in terms of young children's car seats, but it also bears considering whether it's realistic a decade down the line to put (stuff) 2 teenagers and a preteen in the back. At that point, though, one kid can sit in the front if only one parent is going. But how often will the whole family go places? And then there's carpools.

I'm leaning towards keeping the Sienna even if we stop at 2 kids, just because it is nice to be able to pick our kids' friends or our friends' kids up and drive them around. If I lived in a small town like MMM, I'd put the whole gang in my bakfiets, but we live in a large metro area and hang out with people all over the city. I'm not 100% convinced yet, though. Just some stuff to think about.

[reader2580]

To me, the Prius V looks very close to a Toyota Matrix.  I had a Matrix and the only really bad thing is the rear visibility is horrible due to the large pillars and such.

I have not sat in a Prius V, but I would definitely look at rear visibility before buying one.

[skeeder]

Have you considered another vehicle?

The Mazda CX5 SUV can hold 34.1.ft (34.3 for Prius) in the back with seats up.  64.8.1 cu.ft  (67.3 cu.ft) with it down.
Plus it gets 26/35 mpg (FWD...AWD is available) and is much cheaper than the prius (and available 6 speed MT).  For $21,795 starting vs $26,675 it may fit the bill.

If it can hold 3 across the back...I'm not sure about that but I can't imagine it is smaller than the Prius V.  I dislike the idea of complex systems people (technicians) can't troubleshoot and simply replace if anything goes wrong.  I've read of terminal sections going bad and Toyota's diagnosis was to replace the whole unit ($3000!) instead of the $10 terminal in the battery assembly.  I really like Toyota and own a Sienna, I just think that system needs more technicians before buying into it.