Author Topic: Your market predictions for 2024  (Read 14270 times)

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #50 on: December 22, 2023, 08:03:19 AM »
Edit to Add about YOUR Edit: In 2020, they knew exactly what was going to happen several months before it happened. Major players dumped their investments in anything related to travel/hospitality and invested in textiles (face masks), plastics (medical supplies), and medical industry in general - and that began 6 months before the first case of Covid was announce in the US.
You might need to check your sources and/or timeline for that.  The first case of Covid anywhere was in China, Dec 2019.  That was followed 1 month later in the US, Jan 2019.  Claiming "they"/"major players" knew about Covid "several months" or "6 months" before Jan 2019 puts the time before the first case anywhere in the world.  I seriously doubt you can back that claim up with high quality sources of information.  Here is the timeline from the CDC:

Quote
December 12, 2019
A cluster of patients in China’s Hubei Province, in the city of Wuhan, begin to experience the symptoms of an atypical pneumonia-like illness that does not respond well to standard treatments.
...
January 20, 2020
CDC reports the first laboratory-confirmed case of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus in the U.S. from samples taken on January 18 in Washington state and on the same day activates its Emergency Operations Center (EOC) to respond to the emerging outbreak.
https://www.cdc.gov/museum/timeline/covid19.html

WayDownSouth

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #51 on: December 22, 2023, 08:43:10 AM »
Yeah, no need to check sources. I can back it up actually and believe or not, I got the info from someone who worked at very important and influential bank/firm in their higher -level trading area and guess what else I was told in late January (this same time as all the stock market details):

"Italy will be the first country in the western world to test "covid" and the lockdown. When you see that Italy gets locked down first, whether you believe me or not right now, you'll know I was telling the truth. And when you see Italy has been locked down, you have only weeks until the same happens in the US so be prepared."

I shit you not. Think what you'd like. Believe me or not. Even funnier that you mentioned the CDC because this person had not only his financial info but "friends" in the WHO and CDC as well. I could care less if you doubt it or doubt me, what I'm saying is fact and I have ZERO reason to lie. I'm educating you, not bullshitting you.

According to the CDC, lol....


GuitarStv

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #52 on: December 22, 2023, 09:26:05 AM »
Second hand word of mouth with no evidence that can be corroborated is going to be a hard sell to people who don't immediately buy in to conspiracy theories.

WayDownSouth

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #53 on: December 22, 2023, 09:50:36 AM »
Second hand word of mouth with no evidence that can be corroborated is going to be a hard sell to people who don't immediately buy in to conspiracy theories.

It's not a theory, it happened. You can check the markets meticulously if you want. And, secondhand word of mouth is not what I'm trying to sell - in fact, I'm not trying to sell anything. I'm speaking the truth and you'll either have to trust me or not. Do I really care? Hahahahahahah. No, I don't. However there may be someone on this forum who can confirm. Actually there should be several people on this forum who've been here for quite a while who could confirm exactly what I'm telling you. I suppose it all depends if they read this.

Ask yourself why the markets, currencies, etc. were ALL hitting all-time highs during a global pandemic and a global lockdown in April/May of 2020. There's your conspiracy. Since when does a complete halt to the economy make the markets go wild?

MrGreen

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #54 on: December 22, 2023, 11:24:08 AM »
The Jan to October was with many other peaks and troughs. I see what you're saying, but it doesn't work like that. First, you need a literal 20% drop that is sustained for at least a substantial period. Bouncing all over the place with a peak and trough difference of 25% over a long period doesn't count. At least not the way I see it, nor the way professional traders see it.
Not really sure what to tell you there. A 20% peak to trough drop is the most widely accepted definition of a bear market. There is no absolute definition so I guess you can make it whatever you want for yourself. I don't think about it personally. I VTSAX, VBTLX, and call it a day because it's not worth my time to chase returns higher than the market average.

WayDownSouth

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #55 on: December 22, 2023, 11:36:56 AM »
The Jan to October was with many other peaks and troughs. I see what you're saying, but it doesn't work like that. First, you need a literal 20% drop that is sustained for at least a substantial period. Bouncing all over the place with a peak and trough difference of 25% over a long period doesn't count. At least not the way I see it, nor the way professional traders see it.
Not really sure what to tell you there. A 20% peak to trough drop is the most widely accepted definition of a bear market. There is no absolute definition so I guess you can make it whatever you want for yourself. I don't think about it personally. I VTSAX, VBTLX, and call it a day because it's not worth my time to chase returns higher than the market average.

Fair enough!

reeshau

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #56 on: December 22, 2023, 12:56:15 PM »
Edit to Add about YOUR Edit: In 2020, they knew exactly what was going to happen several months before it happened.

I think that's looking at it with hindsight bias.  In October and November of 2019, there was a growing issue in Wuhan, and it looked like the next bird flu / swine flu / SARS.  Those were news items in the US, but much more present in Asia.  Certainly worth preparing for, and a thesis to invest on.

Those that did got "lucky" COVID-19 was the big one, and the investments paid off, probably much better than most who made them predicted.

Scandium

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #57 on: December 22, 2023, 01:34:20 PM »
Second hand word of mouth with no evidence that can be corroborated is going to be a hard sell to people who don't immediately buy in to conspiracy theories.

It's not a theory, it happened. You can check the markets meticulously if you want. And, secondhand word of mouth is not what I'm trying to sell - in fact, I'm not trying to sell anything. I'm speaking the truth and you'll either have to trust me or not. Do I really care? Hahahahahahah. No, I don't. However there may be someone on this forum who can confirm. Actually there should be several people on this forum who've been here for quite a while who could confirm exactly what I'm telling you. I suppose it all depends if they read this.

Ask yourself why the markets, currencies, etc. were ALL hitting all-time highs during a global pandemic and a global lockdown in April/May of 2020. There's your conspiracy. Since when does a complete halt to the economy make the markets go wild?

That is pretty uninteresting. Can you tell me when the next pandemic is going to happen? And what I should buy? Please give me a week or so heads up so I can be ready. Thanks
(or should say your WHO, banker, global illuminati buddy)

WayDownSouth

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #58 on: December 22, 2023, 02:54:34 PM »
Second hand word of mouth with no evidence that can be corroborated is going to be a hard sell to people who don't immediately buy in to conspiracy theories.

It's not a theory, it happened. You can check the markets meticulously if you want. And, secondhand word of mouth is not what I'm trying to sell - in fact, I'm not trying to sell anything. I'm speaking the truth and you'll either have to trust me or not. Do I really care? Hahahahahahah. No, I don't. However there may be someone on this forum who can confirm. Actually there should be several people on this forum who've been here for quite a while who could confirm exactly what I'm telling you. I suppose it all depends if they read this.

Ask yourself why the markets, currencies, etc. were ALL hitting all-time highs during a global pandemic and a global lockdown in April/May of 2020. There's your conspiracy. Since when does a complete halt to the economy make the markets go wild?

That is pretty uninteresting. Can you tell me when the next pandemic is going to happen? And what I should buy? Please give me a week or so heads up so I can be ready. Thanks
(or should say your WHO, banker, global illuminati buddy)

You're response is even less interesting so you might as well go about your day of super interesting things.

How are YOU doing in the market(s)? I bet you're the best. What was your prediction for 2024 again? That should be interesting to hear.

WayDownSouth

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #59 on: December 22, 2023, 03:12:34 PM »
Edit to Add about YOUR Edit: In 2020, they knew exactly what was going to happen several months before it happened.

I think that's looking at it with hindsight bias.  In October and November of 2019, there was a growing issue in Wuhan, and it looked like the next bird flu / swine flu / SARS.  Those were news items in the US, but much more present in Asia.  Certainly worth preparing for, and a thesis to invest on.

Those that did got "lucky" COVID-19 was the big one, and the investments paid off, probably much better than most who made them predicted.

I can agree with that thought about hindsight bias, yet I assure you that's not the situation in my case. I'm sure a lot of people did get lucky with some obvious guessing. I'm also sure that very few ditched all their hotel and airline stocks (and/or shorted them in March) while simultaneously investing heavily in textiles, disposable fabrics, and plastics while leaving almost all other areas of manufacturing. That wouldn't be a "I'm gonna assume" situation. It was something that can only occur with full-blown knowledge and precision preparation.

GuitarStv

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #60 on: December 22, 2023, 03:49:45 PM »
How does one cultivate secret world banker illuminati sources?  Is it from your past life as a jet setting secret agent reverse vampire space cowboy?

WayDownSouth

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #61 on: December 22, 2023, 04:22:50 PM »
How does one cultivate secret world banker illuminati sources?  Is it from your past life as a jet setting secret agent reverse vampire space cowboy?

You dudes are funny. Did I say anything like that? No... I've got timestamped proof of the discussion surrounding the conversation when it happened, and then the secondary discussion after it happened since more than a few dozen people were involved in receiving this information during its dispersal. In fact, it was literally a conversation between some unknowns and real-life associates on a public platform. It's recorded there. It's discussed in great length after the fact that everything he said played out almost to a T.

FYI your ideas of me as "I know something you don't know, I'm so special and important" is not what I'm playing here. I don't need to play. Have a good Christmas Steve!

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #62 on: December 22, 2023, 08:16:39 PM »
Major players dumped their investments in anything related to travel/hospitality and invested in textiles (face masks), plastics (medical supplies), and medical industry in general - and that began 6 months before the first case of Covid was announce in the US.
The first case of Covid-19 in the United States occurred in January 2020.  You said "6 months before the first case of Covid was announce in the US", which would be 6 months before Jan 2020, or July 2019.  You are claiming multiple people reacted to Covid-19 in July 2019, which was 4-5 months before the first Covid-19 case anywhere in the world.


Yeah, no need to check sources.
Did Covid-19 reach the US in January 2020?


According to the CDC, lol....
Your response to the CDC timeline of Covid-19 is "lol".  It sounds like you are dismissing 100% of information from the Centers for Disease Control.

You also didn't address the issue itself, which is a timeline that puts Covid-19 in the US in January 2020.  There are numerous sources for that, including peer-reviewed medical journals... or maybe you trust Wikipedia's cited sources.

https://www.ajmc.com/view/a-timeline-of-covid19-developments-in-2020
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_early_cases_of_COVID-19_in_the_United_States
https://www.cdc.gov/museum/timeline/covid19.html

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #63 on: December 22, 2023, 09:17:38 PM »
@WayDownSouth I had to criticize, but I also have something constructive.  Below is a discussion of Covid-19 in this forum.  Notice the 4th post from me on January 27, where I predicted 10,000 cases in China.  Shockingly, that was breaking news on CNN 4 days later, and caused a very small drop in US stock markets.
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/coronavirus-what-are-you-doing-with-your-investments-401ks/msg2546050/#msg2546050

On March 10 2020, I predicted the U.S. would reach 10,000 cases and cause a market panic, so I started "a market timing plan" to sell some of my portfolio.
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/an-experiment/

After the crash, I predicted a bottom then started investing in Covid-19 stocks like $M $DIN $DXPE to await recovery.  That's also how I invested my Roth IRA, but I won't post proof, so I just point people to my profile link.  It links to the end of that experiment, where I beat the S&P 500 by over 100%.

WayDownSouth

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #64 on: December 23, 2023, 12:49:21 AM »
Major players dumped their investments in anything related to travel/hospitality and invested in textiles (face masks), plastics (medical supplies), and medical industry in general - and that began 6 months before the first case of Covid was announce in the US.
The first case of Covid-19 in the United States occurred in January 2020.  You said "6 months before the first case of Covid was announce in the US", which would be 6 months before Jan 2020, or July 2019.  You are claiming multiple people reacted to Covid-19 in July 2019, which was 4-5 months before the first Covid-19 case anywhere in the world.


Yeah, no need to check sources.
Did Covid-19 reach the US in January 2020?


According to the CDC, lol....
Your response to the CDC timeline of Covid-19 is "lol".  It sounds like you are dismissing 100% of information from the Centers for Disease Control.

You also didn't address the issue itself, which is a timeline that puts Covid-19 in the US in January 2020.  There are numerous sources for that, including peer-reviewed medical journals... or maybe you trust Wikipedia's cited sources.

https://www.ajmc.com/view/a-timeline-of-covid19-developments-in-2020
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_early_cases_of_COVID-19_in_the_United_States
https://www.cdc.gov/museum/timeline/covid19.html

What I said was already clarified, no need to confirm it twice. Rather uninteresting links since you now know I'm very aware of what I've already stated.. Merry Christmas!
« Last Edit: December 23, 2023, 01:49:36 AM by WayDownSouth »

WayDownSouth

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #65 on: December 23, 2023, 01:40:53 AM »
@WayDownSouth I had to criticize, but I also have something constructive.  Below is a discussion of Covid-19 in this forum.  Notice the 4th post from me on January 27, where I predicted 10,000 cases in China.  Shockingly, that was breaking news on CNN 4 days later, and caused a very small drop in US stock markets.
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/coronavirus-what-are-you-doing-with-your-investments-401ks/msg2546050/#msg2546050

On March 10 2020, I predicted the U.S. would reach 10,000 cases and cause a market panic, so I started "a market timing plan" to sell some of my portfolio.
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/an-experiment/

After the crash, I predicted a bottom then started investing in Covid-19 stocks like $M $DIN $DXPE to await recovery.  That's also how I invested my Roth IRA, but I won't post proof, so I just point people to my profile link.  It links to the end of that experiment, where I beat the S&P 500 by over 100%.

That's cool and nice work. Not sure if you're trying to be a friend or a foe, and if your story is serious or you're just talking shit.

Your posts and replies to me are all over the place - it's annoying. If you have something to say, spit it out clearly please.


« Last Edit: December 23, 2023, 01:50:34 AM by WayDownSouth »

Radagast

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #66 on: December 23, 2023, 09:21:03 AM »
To be fair, in the first half of January 2020 we got an urgent request from friends in China to send N95 masks. So we went to Home Depot to pick some up, but the entire mask section had already by cleaned out. RZV began dropping on the first trading day in 2020 and went down steadily. So there was information out there, just most were oblivious to it (me included).

Predictions: S&P over 5,000. Top will be in!

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #67 on: December 23, 2023, 09:35:14 AM »
Major players dumped their investments in anything related to travel/hospitality and invested in textiles (face masks), plastics (medical supplies), and medical industry in general - and that began 6 months before the first case of Covid was announce in the US.
The first case of Covid-19 in the United States occurred in January 2020.  You said "6 months before the first case of Covid was announce in the US", which would be 6 months before Jan 2020, or July 2019.  You are claiming multiple people reacted to Covid-19 in July 2019, which was 4-5 months before the first Covid-19 case anywhere in the world.


Yeah, no need to check sources.
Did Covid-19 reach the US in January 2020?


According to the CDC, lol....
Your response to the CDC timeline of Covid-19 is "lol".  It sounds like you are dismissing 100% of information from the Centers for Disease Control.

You also didn't address the issue itself, which is a timeline that puts Covid-19 in the US in January 2020.  There are numerous sources for that, including peer-reviewed medical journals... or maybe you trust Wikipedia's cited sources.

https://www.ajmc.com/view/a-timeline-of-covid19-developments-in-2020
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_early_cases_of_COVID-19_in_the_United_States
https://www.cdc.gov/museum/timeline/covid19.html

What I said was already clarified, no need to confirm it twice. Rather uninteresting links since you now know I'm very aware of what I've already stated.. Merry Christmas!
December 23rd isn't Christmas, which adds to the inaccuracy you started with "6 months before the first case of Covid", at which time nobody knew about it.  You haven't said you were wrong, so I assume you don't care about accuracy.  I documented you being wrong, and you just ignore it and claim to have addressed it - quote where you addressed being wrong about "and that began 6 months before the first case of Covid was announce in the US."

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #68 on: December 23, 2023, 09:38:56 AM »
@WayDownSouth I had to criticize, but I also have something constructive.  Below is a discussion of Covid-19 in this forum.  Notice the 4th post from me on January 27, where I predicted 10,000 cases in China.  Shockingly, that was breaking news on CNN 4 days later, and caused a very small drop in US stock markets.
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/coronavirus-what-are-you-doing-with-your-investments-401ks/msg2546050/#msg2546050

On March 10 2020, I predicted the U.S. would reach 10,000 cases and cause a market panic, so I started "a market timing plan" to sell some of my portfolio.
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/an-experiment/

After the crash, I predicted a bottom then started investing in Covid-19 stocks like $M $DIN $DXPE to await recovery.  That's also how I invested my Roth IRA, but I won't post proof, so I just point people to my profile link.  It links to the end of that experiment, where I beat the S&P 500 by over 100%.

That's cool and nice work. Not sure if you're trying to be a friend or a foe, and if your story is serious or you're just talking shit.

Your posts and replies to me are all over the place - it's annoying. If you have something to say, spit it out clearly please.
There was room there to put your ego aside and admit you were wrong, and even show you use data in your decision making - none of which is shown in your replies.  I turn foe to people who get facts wrong and refuse to quote sources, which is what I see you doing.  Notice how I documented every step of my story, and then you aren't sure if my "story is serious", even though you can see the evidence with your own eyes on this forum.

reeshau

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #69 on: December 23, 2023, 11:10:50 AM »
I have realized, for the first time, that this forum doesn't have a mute function...

WayDownSouth

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #70 on: December 23, 2023, 11:37:11 AM »
@WayDownSouth I had to criticize, but I also have something constructive.  Below is a discussion of Covid-19 in this forum.  Notice the 4th post from me on January 27, where I predicted 10,000 cases in China.  Shockingly, that was breaking news on CNN 4 days later, and caused a very small drop in US stock markets.
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/coronavirus-what-are-you-doing-with-your-investments-401ks/msg2546050/#msg2546050

On March 10 2020, I predicted the U.S. would reach 10,000 cases and cause a market panic, so I started "a market timing plan" to sell some of my portfolio.
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/an-experiment/

After the crash, I predicted a bottom then started investing in Covid-19 stocks like $M $DIN $DXPE to await recovery.  That's also how I invested my Roth IRA, but I won't post proof, so I just point people to my profile link.  It links to the end of that experiment, where I beat the S&P 500 by over 100%.

That's cool and nice work. Not sure if you're trying to be a friend or a foe, and if your story is serious or you're just talking shit.

Your posts and replies to me are all over the place - it's annoying. If you have something to say, spit it out clearly please.
There was room there to put your ego aside and admit you were wrong, and even show you use data in your decision making - none of which is shown in your replies.  I turn foe to people who get facts wrong and refuse to quote sources, which is what I see you doing.  Notice how I documented every step of my story, and then you aren't sure if my "story is serious", even though you can see the evidence with your own eyes on this forum.

Okay let me explain this VERY simply. Investor friend associate said these trades were taking place during that time period and I know he would not lie. THis time period may have been before official announcement of ANY sickness anywhere - it doesn't matter.

It could be that the whole thing was planned, a conspiracy, and that was the reasoning for the slow and steady movement over those months as to not raise suspicion. ALL I KNOW is that the timeline I gave for those events is correct. How/when/why is less relevant to me but after all, the story as a whole shows that not only was the info out there, but select few(s) were privy to that information - maybe because they created the disaster to offer a solution. There could  be a lot of reasons.

So, at the end of the day what I am saying doesn't rely on when or where fucking SARS-CoV-2 surfaced. I hope that's clear.

With that said, I offer my sincere apology if I sounded like a dick. I'm not being a dick. But please understand that just because something is public knowledge, or on TV, or "officially announced" does not mean that it's new, real, or occurred in the way that you, I and the rest of the world was told. If you look history and truths that have surfaced decades after the fact you would accept that what I am saying is completely coherent, feasible, and doesn't deserve an attack.

As to the other guys above with similar BS: Do I trust the CDC or WHO? Fuck no, I do not. DO you read their papers and follow their content over the years? Some of the shittiest ideas, studies, information, and science I've ever seen. So that's been clarified now too.

The sarcastic illuminati bullshit comments and such are just stupid by the way, too. It makes you two look like non-thinking, unintelligent groupies claiming that there's nothing real except what you're told is real. Are we adult intellectuals here or are we adults morons who are only with enough intelligence to make a financial plan and retire early? I for one am not a moron, nor an adult child. I don't buy what the media sells and I don't give a shit what they're saying because I don't pay attention to them. I have more important things to do.

I enjoy learning, teaching, and contributing information. If you don't like the info or if you disagree let's talk but don't talk shit to me. Have some respect. I know a lot more than you may expect. Or maybe not. Either way.

WayDownSouth

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #71 on: December 23, 2023, 11:45:30 AM »
To be fair, in the first half of January 2020 we got an urgent request from friends in China to send N95 masks. So we went to Home Depot to pick some up, but the entire mask section had already by cleaned out. RZV began dropping on the first trading day in 2020 and went down steadily. So there was information out there, just most were oblivious to it (me included).

Predictions: S&P over 5,000. Top will be in!

Don't worry someone is soon going to reply to you and talk nonsense about how home building and construction was doing great at that time, or, how their local home depot had plenty of N95 masks so your observation has no merit.

GuitarStv

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #72 on: December 23, 2023, 11:54:17 AM »
I enjoy learning, teaching, and contributing information. If you don't like the info or if you disagree let's talk but don't talk shit to me. Have some respect. I know a lot more than you may expect. Or maybe not. Either way.

A person who makes unsupported claims, allegations, and conspiracy theories absent evidence is failing to show respect for the intellect of those he is discussing with - as no intelligent person would find such arguments persuasive.  Respect is a two way street.

WayDownSouth

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #73 on: December 23, 2023, 12:02:26 PM »
I enjoy learning, teaching, and contributing information. If you don't like the info or if you disagree let's talk but don't talk shit to me. Have some respect. I know a lot more than you may expect. Or maybe not. Either way.

A person who makes unsupported claims, allegations, and conspiracy theories absent evidence is failing to show respect for the intellect of those he is discussing with - as no intelligent person would find such arguments persuasive.  Respect is a two way street.

I'm stating a situation that happened. Your interpretation of that situation doesn't qualify as me disrespecting you so your point there is invalid. Not worth responding to you, could care less of your opinion Steve. Think I already wished you a Merry Christmas but I'll change that to Happy Holidays as to ensure you don't take it as disrespectful.

WayDownSouth

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #74 on: December 23, 2023, 12:04:28 PM »
How about some more market predictions? This thread's off course - my apology for my participation in being a part of that.

Let's hear it!

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #75 on: December 24, 2023, 01:34:49 AM »
...
The sarcastic illuminati bullshit comments and such are just stupid by the way, too. It makes you two look like non-thinking, unintelligent groupies claiming that there's nothing real except what you're told is real. Are we adult intellectuals here or are we adults morons who are only with enough intelligence to make a financial plan and retire early? I for one am not a moron, nor an adult child. I don't buy what the media sells and I don't give a shit what they're saying because I don't pay attention to them. I have more important things to do.

I enjoy learning, teaching, and contributing information. If you don't like the info or if you disagree let's talk but don't talk shit to me. Have some respect. I know a lot more than you may expect. Or maybe not. Either way.
You replied to me about "sarcastic illuminati bullshit comments", which was actually Scandium and GuitarStv.  Personal attacks are against the forum rules.
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/forum-information-faqs/forum-rules/

If you prefer to push your luck, here's the thread for people asking why they were banned.
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/forum-information-faqs/why-was-i-banned/

clarkfan1979

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #76 on: December 24, 2023, 05:46:01 AM »
How about some more market predictions? This thread's off course - my apology for my participation in being a part of that.

Let's hear it!

I only make single bets when I feel like the market is being irrational. When I make a single bet it's going to be 1% of my portfolio. It's enough to add excitement to my life and test my ideas, but not enough to destroy me if I make a mistake. Making single bets is not necessary, but it's fun.

I really like Warren Buffets analogy of investing to baseball. When it comes to investing there are no "called strikes". You can take as many pitches as you like (not swing) and won't be penalized with a strikeout. My last single bet was buying LUV stock at $23.05 in May 2020 and I sold in October 2020 for $39.05. I bought 100 shares. I did it with a buddy during COVID-19. It was fun as hell and we made some money.

I personally don't see anything irrational at the moment, so I'm not making any bets.

I have one prediction that is difficult to measure, so take it for what it's worth. I think the "typical person" and potentially "typical investor" is still underestimating the impact of long term inflation on all investments. The money printing has to eventually find itself into assets and we are not there yet.

The wealth gap is going to get exponentially bigger over the next 10 years. I'm not talking about the top 1%. I'm talking about the median (50%) vs. 80%. The average American that has little to no assets is going to be totally screwed. Having a "good job" is going to have less value in the future. Wealth is going to be more important than income.

This motivates me to put as much money as I can into real estate and stocks.

 


Metalcat

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #77 on: December 24, 2023, 07:25:42 AM »
I have realized, for the first time, that this forum doesn't have a mute function...

You can "block" specific users. It still shows them participating in threads, but you have to take an extra step to read what they wrote. Very imperfect but we work with the tools we've got. It is actually closer to "mute" than "block".

Do we still have this option, I was looking for it the other day and couldn't find it. Although I'm on my new phone, which makes all writing ridiculously small on this site.

RWD

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #78 on: December 24, 2023, 07:34:50 AM »
I have realized, for the first time, that this forum doesn't have a mute function...

You can "block" specific users. It still shows them participating in threads, but you have to take an extra step to read what they wrote. Very imperfect but we work with the tools we've got. It is actually closer to "mute" than "block".

Do we still have this option, I was looking for it the other day and couldn't find it. Although I'm on my new phone, which makes all writing ridiculously small on this site.

Go to your profile, Buddies/Ignore List, then click the Ignore List link and add the name in a box at the bottom.

RWTL

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #79 on: December 24, 2023, 07:41:59 AM »
My portfolio will return 5.4%, because that's what I put down in my spreadsheet.

Here are my predictions based on nothing in particular...

1. Fed will cut rates in the second half.  Maybe twice.  Three times seems like a stretch.

2. Politics will cause some market swings, but not a major advancement or decline based on policy alone.

3. The housing market will pickup in the second half as mortgage rates start to drop and pent up demand builds.

4. Crypto - Who knows. It will probably go through the roof now that I've liquidated my allocation. 

5. Prices won't deflate overall, but inflation will come back down to the 1-2% range.

I think of this as a transition year and not a blockbuster year.  Equities valuations feel too high, which is why I'm hedging my expectations for return next year.  That, and it's easier to estimate lower and be pleased when it is exceeded.

Metalcat

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #80 on: December 24, 2023, 07:50:49 AM »
I have realized, for the first time, that this forum doesn't have a mute function...

You can "block" specific users. It still shows them participating in threads, but you have to take an extra step to read what they wrote. Very imperfect but we work with the tools we've got. It is actually closer to "mute" than "block".

Do we still have this option, I was looking for it the other day and couldn't find it. Although I'm on my new phone, which makes all writing ridiculously small on this site.

Go to your profile, Buddies/Ignore List, then click the Ignore List link and add the name in a box at the bottom.

Ah, thank you!

RWD

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #81 on: December 24, 2023, 08:01:15 AM »
I have realized, for the first time, that this forum doesn't have a mute function...

You can "block" specific users. It still shows them participating in threads, but you have to take an extra step to read what they wrote. Very imperfect but we work with the tools we've got. It is actually closer to "mute" than "block".

Do we still have this option, I was looking for it the other day and couldn't find it. Although I'm on my new phone, which makes all writing ridiculously small on this site.

Go to your profile, Buddies/Ignore List, then click the Ignore List link and add the name in a box at the bottom.

Ah, thank you!

No problem!

RWD

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #82 on: December 24, 2023, 08:02:37 AM »
Go to your profile, Buddies/Ignore List, then click the Ignore List link and add the name in a box at the bottom.

Perfect! I was on my phone and I'm old and can't operate these little machines so I couldn't look it up properly ;)

I'm also on my phone, but I do this often enough to have accidentally discovered the maximum number of users on the ignore list...

ender

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #83 on: December 24, 2023, 08:13:37 AM »
I periodically revisit my list and clear it, a lot of the folks are fiery and quick "lived" on these forums.

Metalcat

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #84 on: December 24, 2023, 08:58:19 AM »
I periodically revisit my list and clear it, a lot of the folks are fiery and quick "lived" on these forums.

True, sometimes I see someone new come in guns blazing and I often give them a bit of a welcome speech to better understand why their approach is not working well here and how this corner of the internet operates a little differently.

I'm getting tired though.

Louise

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #85 on: December 24, 2023, 09:04:21 AM »
My gut feeling is that unemployment will be up a bit. It seems like people are having a harder time finding a new job. I think consumer spending will be down too. I think the S&P will be up a bit- 5-7%. This is based on nothing.

WayDownSouth

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #86 on: December 24, 2023, 10:01:58 AM »
...
The sarcastic illuminati bullshit comments and such are just stupid by the way, too. It makes you two look like non-thinking, unintelligent groupies claiming that there's nothing real except what you're told is real. Are we adult intellectuals here or are we adults morons who are only with enough intelligence to make a financial plan and retire early? I for one am not a moron, nor an adult child. I don't buy what the media sells and I don't give a shit what they're saying because I don't pay attention to them. I have more important things to do.

I enjoy learning, teaching, and contributing information. If you don't like the info or if you disagree let's talk but don't talk shit to me. Have some respect. I know a lot more than you may expect. Or maybe not. Either way.
You replied to me about "sarcastic illuminati bullshit comments", which was actually Scandium and GuitarStv.  Personal attacks are against the forum rules.
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/forum-information-faqs/forum-rules/

If you prefer to push your luck, here's the thread for people asking why they were banned.
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/forum-information-faqs/why-was-i-banned/

My apology, I had no intent to make a personal attack. Thanks for the links.

firemane

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #87 on: December 24, 2023, 04:50:54 PM »
WayDownSouth, are you a Black Mirror script writer?  Should be.  :)

It's a compliment, I love Black Mirror.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nosedive_(Black_Mirror)

Right now I'm not, but yes, indeed I was before they fired me. You see, there are a lot of facts that have been delivered within that series. Let's call them predictions... These were routinely ordered by people within the company, people with much more authority than production teams or any manager. The thing is, certain messages or themes MUST be written into the script or else it's a no-go.

Well I took their "special messages" and wrote them in a style and fashion in which they became too blatantly obvious and deeply impactful. This caused them to tell me that it was now "too much", and to "tone it down" or "embed it less realistically". I told them to fuck off and write it themselves then. I still have a free lifetime membership from netflix and a box of netflix t-shirts which I use as garage rags...

I thought black mirror too, however, it is not that farfetched considering how accurate satellite images are getting. I figure there will be a live feed of pretty much everything from a variety of cameras at some point

You're basing it on satellite images? The technology to read (via satellite photograph) a newpaper or a letter on the ground has been around since at least the early 2000's.

I'm not sure where you guys live or what you do or whatever, but... Have you seen any documentaries or information on what's actually going on in the real world?

Here's an interesting watch from 6 years ago, to provide perspective to the progress they made.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQ5LnY21Hgc

Did anyone see the video of the kids from Silicon Valley companies over there in Beijing for business? They were having drinks, and one was exclaiming how surprised he was because from his passport photo alone (provided when he entered), he was fined for j-walking. He received a text message on his phone less than 30 seconds after his j-walk that he'd been fined and the money was automatically deducted from his bank account. This was a tourist. This was also years ago.

The third paragraph I wrote in my previous message was hypothetical but more or less that's how things are going to roll out. These technologies and plans are already in place. Legislation is accumulating. Banks are making massive moves to embrace and absorb impacts, along with private companies working with government entities and establishment stakeholders to ensure their own losses are mitigated. I'm not playing around. It sound all science-fictionally and everything - I get it....

If I had told you in May of 2019 that the whole world would be locked down due to a pandemic within 12 months, I'd be a kook, right? "Impossible, people wouldn't comply, etc.".....

Watch and learn. Markets going to fly to new highs in 2024 but your guess is as good as mine about when and where it stops. When it does, you'll remember this post and soon after you'll begin to realize why.

Have not heard of this newspaper claim… most I have heard is they are approaching less than 10cm per pixel.

Zamboni

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #88 on: December 24, 2023, 08:08:24 PM »
We are in a lost decade imho. By 2030 the market won't be far from the next top.

The market is very overbought right now, but I expect SPY to still go up a bit more and then have a downward correction by Q2 2024.

This scenario will take more than a year to play out but there will be a gradual slope in 2024:
The housing market is in a slow motion crash that will continue in most of the country. Employment will continue to go up and there will be some forced home selling in 2024 in a buyers market. Rents will stay on a gradual downward trajectory but fall at a slower rate than home prices in most of the US. CRE will continue to be crushed in office, retail, and multi-family sectors which will see some over-leveraged investors in those sectors throwing in the towel due to higher rates on any CRE floating rate loans. With credit continuing to tighten, more and more people will get maxed out. A growing percentage of these folks will stop making their minimum payments on consumer debts such as credit cards and student loans. So, wage garnishments and bankruptcies will go up, putting even more downward pressure on housing and discretionary consumption. The latter will affect the stock market and keep returns there flatter than we would like.

And I hope I am wrong about a lot of the above predictions, but that is what it looks like to me given the current macroeconomic conditions.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #89 on: December 24, 2023, 11:00:48 PM »

I predict I'll continue to be scared of those little green dippy things.

clarkfan1979

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #90 on: December 25, 2023, 04:58:19 AM »
We are in a lost decade imho. By 2030 the market won't be far from the next top.

The market is very overbought right now, but I expect SPY to still go up a bit more and then have a downward correction by Q2 2024.

This scenario will take more than a year to play out but there will be a gradual slope in 2024:
The housing market is in a slow motion crash that will continue in most of the country. Employment will continue to go up and there will be some forced home selling in 2024 in a buyers market. Rents will stay on a gradual downward trajectory but fall at a slower rate than home prices in most of the US. CRE will continue to be crushed in office, retail, and multi-family sectors which will see some over-leveraged investors in those sectors throwing in the towel due to higher rates on any CRE floating rate loans. With credit continuing to tighten, more and more people will get maxed out. A growing percentage of these folks will stop making their minimum payments on consumer debts such as credit cards and student loans. So, wage garnishments and bankruptcies will go up, putting even more downward pressure on housing and discretionary consumption. The latter will affect the stock market and keep returns there flatter than we would like.

And I hope I am wrong about a lot of the above predictions, but that is what it looks like to me given the current macroeconomic conditions.

@Zamboni Does this mean that we are currently seeing rent declines nationally? Over what time period? Do you have any sources/links for that data? I'm not seeing that with my rentals and I'm too lazy to search the internet.

Zamboni

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #91 on: December 25, 2023, 12:23:26 PM »
^Wow, okay, yeah, super lazy because it doesn't require much to search "are rents going up or down", but it's Christmas and I'm feeling jolly so here you go:
https://www.redfin.com/news/redfin-rental-report-november-2023/#:~:text=The%20median%20U.S.%20asking%20rent%20declined%202.1%25%20year%20over%20year,and%20fell%200.6%25%20from%20October.

Rent.com says the same thing. In fact, every survey I've seen of US rents say rents are falling year over year and month over month. Maybe not in your area, though, but definitely in my area. Many landlords around here are just happy to find a tenant who doesn't stop paying rent part way through the lease. I think the eviction moratorium gave a lot of people around here the idea that rent is an optional payment after all.

Love you, man, and it's okay to be lazy on Christmas.

Telecaster

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #92 on: December 27, 2023, 01:33:58 PM »
Why do I see the bloodbath? I'm imagining that when a certain chosen few (which could be 100 or more) cryptocurrencies are "legalized", the others will become illegal. I think that we're also entering a period in time where cryptos will be used increasingly by big brother for malevolent subject matter. Whether the face behind the curtain is blackrock, doesn't really matter. Imagine social credit scores, full-crypto system such as central bank digital currencies utilizing blockchain to operate various monetary and social aspects of society, etc... A gloomy dystopian view is the reasoning behind my theory more than anything.

I can say with 100% confidence this will not happen.   I mean, there might be a gloomy dystopian future, but it won't involve crypto or blockchain.

WayDownSouth

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #93 on: December 27, 2023, 05:01:49 PM »
Why do I see the bloodbath? I'm imagining that when a certain chosen few (which could be 100 or more) cryptocurrencies are "legalized", the others will become illegal. I think that we're also entering a period in time where cryptos will be used increasingly by big brother for malevolent subject matter. Whether the face behind the curtain is blackrock, doesn't really matter. Imagine social credit scores, full-crypto system such as central bank digital currencies utilizing blockchain to operate various monetary and social aspects of society, etc... A gloomy dystopian view is the reasoning behind my theory more than anything.

I can say with 100% confidence this will not happen.   I mean, there might be a gloomy dystopian future, but it won't involve crypto or blockchain.

Why would you assume it wouldn't involve crypto or blockchain? Saying it won't happen with 100% certainty is absurd because it's already happening.

Ripple itself for example has XRP and the Ripple ledger which is blockchain-based. Bank of America has been one of their longest financial partners. These guys already have serious partnerships with major banks.

Take CDBCs for example, which may or may not be considered "crypto" persay because they're theoretically centralized and regulated, but it's all based on the same concepts and technology... CBDCs being "centralized" and "regulated", and where crypto is "decentralized" and "unregulated". BTC is about to become a spot ETF, yet that's just one arm of the crypto world that already exists and is going to be introduced for common market trading.

Think about smart contracts, tokenization, stablecoins, etc. and their use in day-today life. The issuance of debt via digital currency and so on is literally the future of finance, from monetary control to asset management - in both voluntary and mandatory forms depending on the situation/application.

Want to dive deeper? How about central banks? Here is a great link about project mBridge straight from the horse's mouth:

https://www.bis.org/about/bisih/topics/cbdc/mcbdc_bridge.htm



GuitarStv

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #94 on: December 27, 2023, 07:14:53 PM »
Smart contracts, tokenization, and stable coins aren't used in the day to day life of anyone I know.

WayDownSouth

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #95 on: December 27, 2023, 07:46:20 PM »
Smart contracts, tokenization, and stable coins aren't used in the day to day life of anyone I know.

Hope you had a great holiday, Steve. If you know anyone who shops at Wal-Mart, is a vendor with Home Depot, anyone making P2P transactions, or know anyone who relies on international trade for making money, smart contracts are already working behind the scenes. It's highly likely that various people you know (including yourself) live a day-to-day life that utilizes a product or service that is employing smart contracts in one form or another.

It's only a matter of time until they come into the foreground in a more personal use scenario, even if indirectly. Assuming you already know what smart contracts are - since you said nobody you know is using them - I'm sure you could find many scenarios in which they'll be applicable.

Most people (myself included) could already be relying on a host of other businesses utilizing smart contracts in the background and we'd know nothing about it because most of the time it's irrelevant to the consumer..... The equivalent of your favorite product/service companies explaining to you how they file their documents or apply stain protection to the carpets in their corporate offices.

Anything else you'd like to mention today that requires my clarification Steve? Let me know. Have a good evening.

Telecaster

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #96 on: December 27, 2023, 08:01:27 PM »
Why would you assume it wouldn't involve crypto or blockchain? Saying it won't happen with 100% certainty is absurd because it's already happening.

<snip>

Want to dive deeper? How about central banks? Here is a great link about project mBridge straight from the horse's mouth:

https://www.bis.org/about/bisih/topics/cbdc/mcbdc_bridge.htm

More accurately, it is already has been looked at.  Implemented, not so much.  And I'll call and raise on the horse's mouth.   The US Federal Reserve looked at blockchain for a potential CBDC and concluded it wasn't needed.   That's really the story of blockchain.   There are lots of projects that could use blockchain, but when the smoke clears they don't really need blockchain.  There is lots of hype initially, they then just sort of fade away.   

 The proposed Bitcoin ETFs are a good example of why I'm extremely skeptical of blockchain and crypto.  Here are some of the claimed advantages of Bitcoin:

1. Self-custody.  No need for a bank.
2. Decentralized, peer-to-peer transactions
3. Transactions are recorded on the blockchain
4. No government scrutiny (except maybe in the case of a warrant).

The Bitcoin ETF would provide:

1.  No self-custody.  Requires a third party financial institution.
2.  Centralized transactions
3.  The user cannot make blockchain transactions
4.  Transactions are automatically reported to the IRS and are monitored by the SEC.

So, the proposition is that if you package Bitcoin as an ETF (and collect the associated fees) but strip almost everything out of Bitcoin that makes it unique--especially the ability to make transactions--people will want to buy Bitcoin.  Does that sound nuts to you?  The notion that Bitcoin is more desirable when you strip out all of the functionality is not really a resounding vote for the potential of Bitcoin. 

Re:  Smart contracts.  Same problem.  What problem do smart contracts solve that regular contracts can't handle?  Most people can read a will or a simple purchase and sale agreement and understand what it means.   But most people don't understand computer code--including me.  So I don't want smart contracts.   I want something I can read and understand.   

WayDownSouth

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #97 on: December 27, 2023, 08:24:04 PM »
Why would you assume it wouldn't involve crypto or blockchain? Saying it won't happen with 100% certainty is absurd because it's already happening.

<snip>

Want to dive deeper? How about central banks? Here is a great link about project mBridge straight from the horse's mouth:

https://www.bis.org/about/bisih/topics/cbdc/mcbdc_bridge.htm

More accurately, it is already has been looked at.  Implemented, not so much.  And I'll call and raise on the horse's mouth.   The US Federal Reserve looked at blockchain for a potential CBDC and concluded it wasn't needed.   That's really the story of blockchain.   There are lots of projects that could use blockchain, but when the smoke clears they don't really need blockchain.  There is lots of hype initially, they then just sort of fade away.   

 The proposed Bitcoin ETFs are a good example of why I'm extremely skeptical of blockchain and crypto.  Here are some of the claimed advantages of Bitcoin:

1. Self-custody.  No need for a bank.
2. Decentralized, peer-to-peer transactions
3. Transactions are recorded on the blockchain
4. No government scrutiny (except maybe in the case of a warrant).

The Bitcoin ETF would provide:

1.  No self-custody.  Requires a third party financial institution.
2.  Centralized transactions
3.  The user cannot make blockchain transactions
4.  Transactions are automatically reported to the IRS and are monitored by the SEC.

So, the proposition is that if you package Bitcoin as an ETF (and collect the associated fees) but strip almost everything out of Bitcoin that makes it unique--especially the ability to make transactions--people will want to buy Bitcoin.  Does that sound nuts to you?  The notion that Bitcoin is more desirable when you strip out all of the functionality is not really a resounding vote for the potential of Bitcoin. 

Re:  Smart contracts.  Same problem.  What problem do smart contracts solve that regular contracts can't handle?  Most people can read a will or a simple purchase and sale agreement and understand what it means.   But most people don't understand computer code--including me.  So I don't want smart contracts.   I want something I can read and understand.

The US federal reserve is not the end all, that's why I said "the horses mouth"... BIS is a bit above the FED, they're the bank for central banks (too keep the explanation simple).

Blockchain is being used all over the financial industry already in many use-cases including things as simple as money transfer services and record-keeping. The same with smart contracts. It's not so much a matter of what they can or can't handle, but the fact that they can complete things in a rapid and efficient manner that allows for a variety of access (and specific levels of access for specific parties or individuals).

You telling me that you don't want smart contracts because you can't read computer code tells me you don't know what a smart contract is and we probably are wasting server space even discussing it. A smart contract can be read in the same way that you can read this forum - on any digital screen. It's the execution of the contract and potential clauses which can be automated to execute based on a variety of factors that make them worthwhile and which have caused many places you're probably familiar with to employ them. The legible part of the contract itself is not something that's different. Regular paper contracts cannot self adjust term agreements on the fly like smart contracts can, resulting in more paperwork and signatures and that sort of thing when compared to smart contracts.

In regard to the spot Bitcoin ETFs, the tax part you mentioned is not necesarrily the case. The initial filings to get the ETF rolling wanted to exploit an existing tax loophole that would actually make them non-taxable, hence the problems achieving the ETF status over the last year or more. That seems to be changing. I'm not pro-ETF for crypto but I also do not use crypto. Just to clarify, I'd prefer crypto to be left as-is rather than regulated so I have no argument about the good vs. bad - only my opinion on how and why it'll play out, i.e., my prediction.

RWTL

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #98 on: December 28, 2023, 03:28:50 AM »

You telling me that you don't want smart contracts because you can't read computer code tells me you don't know what a smart contract is and we probably are wasting server space even discussing it.


My dude....relax.

Posthumane

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Re: Your market predictions for 2024
« Reply #99 on: December 28, 2023, 02:06:46 PM »
Well, it seems I've managed to find yet another person who knew all about the pandemic before it happened, but just didn't tell anybody until years later. There seems to be quite a few of these people, I'm surprised how good they are at keeping secrets.

My prediction for 2024 is that some miscalculation leads to an escalation that triggers a nuclear war. Then again, my prediction at the end of 2019 was that 2020 will just be a normal year. 90%+ chance that I'm wrong on this prediction as well, but in the off chance that I'm right you guys can all come back here and tell me how prophetic I am. Briefly, anyway... Happy Festivus!

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!