Author Topic: why we can't time the market  (Read 13175 times)

Mr Mark

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why we can't time the market
« on: May 22, 2013, 11:18:51 AM »
I faintly remember late last year that some of our forum members with, let's say, a more  'active' view of investment strategy than standard Vanguard, were all about how high the market was and that they were in cash, waiting for the inevitable correction.

We know what happened since.

And yes, there may be corrections in the future. But the yield on cash is abysmal. So as time ticks, and the bulls run, you loose a lot. In fact, you may then find yourself forced to get in late. Exposing yourself to the classic rookie error.
We can't time the market. Just keep regularly investing, and you are risk minimised, wrt your asset allocation.


Joet

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2013, 11:21:47 AM »
market timers/prognosticators always have a near-perfect record on the internet. Just ask them.

Will we ever see an audited/logged record of their performance vs broad market indexes though? heh

GoStumpy

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2013, 12:05:08 PM »
The "Average Investor" tries to 'Time the market'.

The Average Investor has made 2.1% over the past 10 years.

The market has done an average of ~7.2%.

Timing the market almost never works.

smedleyb

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2013, 12:11:23 PM »
Crazy prediction:  Mr. Mark just top-ticked the market.  lol! 
 

Mr Mark

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #4 on: May 22, 2013, 12:15:19 PM »
Crazy prediction:  Mr. Mark just top-ticked the market.  lol!

Ha ha!  Like it.

Luckily I'm putting my short term cashflow into a remodeling project before we sell the house, but a normal correction in about Feb 2014 would be nice, just before I rebalance!

GreenGuava

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #5 on: May 24, 2013, 12:15:27 AM »
Will we ever see an audited/logged record of their performance vs broad market indexes though? heh

Yup.  There are people who have been telling me since March 2009 to sell my stocks and get into cash in anticipation of the "second dip."  I'm sure we all know how things have gone since then.

One of these days, there will be a 5% drop (not in one day, but over some cherry-picked set of days) and they'll tell me they told me so.  I'll still be ahead, but will have a tough time convincing them of that.

foobar

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #6 on: May 24, 2013, 06:40:45 AM »
I have been getting solicitations for financial news letters for the past 20 years. Turns out they were all right eventually.


Will we ever see an audited/logged record of their performance vs broad market indexes though? heh

Yup.  There are people who have been telling me since March 2009 to sell my stocks and get into cash in anticipation of the "second dip."  I'm sure we all know how things have gone since then.

One of these days, there will be a 5% drop (not in one day, but over some cherry-picked set of days) and they'll tell me they told me so.  I'll still be ahead, but will have a tough time convincing them of that.

arebelspy

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #7 on: May 24, 2013, 07:29:01 AM »
I faintly remember late last year that some of our forum members with, let's say, a more  'active' view of investment strategy than standard Vanguard, were all about how high the market was and that they were in cash, waiting for the inevitable correction.

We know what happened since.

And yes, there may be corrections in the future. But the yield on cash is abysmal. So as time ticks, and the bulls run, you loose a lot. In fact, you may then find yourself forced to get in late. Exposing yourself to the classic rookie error.
We can't time the market. Just keep regularly investing, and you are risk minimised, wrt your asset allocation.

Indeed.  The opportunity cost while waiting, certain you are right and the market is wrong, can be quite large.

I also recall many people saying they were largely in cash, not wanting to invest (most not using the word "scared," but that's what it boiled down to for many of them).  How unfortunate.

Of course I'd love a crash for personal, selfish reasons, since I'm still accumulating.  But I don't know when a correction will happen, so I'll just stay the course with my AA, DCA into index funds, and let the market do what it will.
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Jamesqf

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #8 on: May 24, 2013, 01:04:55 PM »
Thing is, you have two separate problems here.  The question of whether it is possible in principle to time the market is entirely separate from the question of whether those forum members know how to time it correctly.

Certainly my long-scale timing - not selling in the '08 crash, and putting every spare dime in the market when it was low - has not worked at all badly.  Still have my shirt, and can afford a new one or two if need be :-)

Freeyourchains2

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #9 on: June 05, 2013, 08:16:21 AM »
It's easier to time the market when you hand pick your stocks after some research and some experience with the markets and use a strategy such as for short term: buy low on 10% dips, wait patiently, and sell high on 10% increases. Or long term- buy when the market has crashed and the government is bailing out companies with tax dollars they took during from the taxpayers, sell when records have been broken and government wants to take some more money from the tax payers.

It's even easier if you learn to keep emotions out of your strategy (The Art of War, -Sun Tzo) and when you are not stressed out about needing the money in any way.

For example, owning high quality dividend growth stocks that continually payout dividends like nothing is a surprise during the 2008-09 market crash or even World Wars and other great depressions. Your principal drops in your accounts to the tune of the swings, sure; however, you drool over the opportunity and buy buy buy when everything is on 50%-85% discounts like a kid in a Candy Store, yet it's not only candy, but candy filled with golden tickets to own Corporations.

You buy everything high quality in sight. Apple, Disney, Exxon Mobile, Johnson & Johnson, Wells Fargo, etc. etc.




matchewed

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #10 on: June 05, 2013, 08:27:13 AM »
No.

Cecil

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #11 on: June 05, 2013, 09:16:04 AM »
Crazy prediction:  Mr. Mark just top-ticked the market.  lol!

Funny enough, the S&P all-time high now stands at 10:30am, May 22 - within an hour of Mr. Mark's original post.

dcheesi

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #12 on: June 05, 2013, 09:26:00 AM »
Unfortunately I got bitten by this. Before coming here, I was never much of an investor (besides a 401k that I set up years ago). A few months ago I was finally ready to move a bunch of money into the market, but my investor buddy told me to wait. Being lazy and unfamiliar with the market, I took his advice as an excuse to do nothing.

At least I'm not as bad off as my buddy; he was actively betting against the market this whole time!

smedleyb

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #13 on: June 05, 2013, 09:36:49 AM »
Crazy prediction:  Mr. Mark just top-ticked the market.  lol!

Funny enough, the S&P all-time high now stands at 10:30am, May 22 - within an hour of Mr. Mark's original post.

Two things:  first, I was dead serious when I made that statement.  And second, attempting to consistently outperform the market is a fool's errand, or a criminal endeavor -- you choose.

That said, intelligent market discussions are always a plus, which is a far cry from saying somebody needs to buy or sell with every shift in the wind.  Furthermore, the market loves to punish gloating [points finger at self]. 

Finally, nobody is positioned for a 10-15% decline, and we know what happens when the herd is leaning too hard in one direction....

mpbaker22

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #14 on: June 05, 2013, 11:42:34 AM »
Sure market timing is possible.  I started investing in March of 2009, and I made a lot of money doing so.  Now that I started investing, I don't plan on stopping.  See, I timed it perfectly!

Joet

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #15 on: June 05, 2013, 01:16:56 PM »
thanks for calling a market top guys! I've been easing into foreign equity indexes lately in taxable :)

grantmeaname

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #16 on: June 05, 2013, 07:32:16 PM »
You buy everything high quality in sight. Apple, Disney, Exxon Mobile, Johnson & Johnson, Wells Fargo, etc. etc.
Yawn. I already own that one.

matchewed

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #17 on: June 05, 2013, 09:59:13 PM »
You buy everything high quality in sight. Apple, Disney, Exxon Mobile, Johnson & Johnson, Wells Fargo, etc. etc.
Yawn. I already own that one.

But not in a matter which provides you with 200 years worth of a gazillion return over time. And the man takes your cut anyway.

Damn am I doing this right?

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #18 on: June 06, 2013, 05:06:51 PM »
Having done some reading of value investing, I am curious if the members of this community view value investing as another market timing gimmick, or a viable strategy for those who care to take the time to learn how to value securities. If it is just a timing thing, were Benjamin Graham and Buffet exceedingly lucky, exceptionally skilled, or both?

daymare

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #19 on: June 07, 2013, 11:34:01 AM »
Quote
Having done some reading of value investing, I am curious if the members of this community view value investing as another market timing gimmick, or a viable strategy for those who care to take the time to learn how to value securities. If it is just a timing thing, were Benjamin Graham and Buffet exceedingly lucky, exceptionally skilled, or both?

I'm personally an index investor, but I very much enjoy reading about value investors + their views and techniques. [I'm relatively young and inexperienced, ~42K invested, all in my Roth IRA once I convert ~9K left in my trad. 401k next year.  But I do very much enjoy discussing investing  -- I'm starting a finance PhD, yay research]

Historically, 'value' stocks have out-performed 'growth' stocks, and the basics of value investing make a lot of sense to me: ie, looking at inherent value of a company's assets, whether there's a sound and simple strategy, looking for instances where stock prices are depressed for external reasons (ie, recession, stupid market reaction to news that isn't expected to harm the company's prospects long-term).  On the other hand, I recognize that to truly evaluate companies on these dimensions, plenty of time and resources are required.  I don't expect an average person like me to be able to beat the market and consistently find under-valued stocks, while not taking on significantly more risk than from my index funds.

grantmeaname

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #20 on: June 07, 2013, 11:41:44 AM »
Also, mutual fund companies can't do it, and they've got expertise and analysts out their asses.

Joet

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #21 on: June 07, 2013, 11:46:56 AM »
I think retail investors (vs institutional) are a bit more equipped to practice 'value' investing.

Eg take a look at certain broad sectors:
US equity, foreign equity, bond markets, real estate, gas/oil, timber, farmland, etc etc

Take a look at well known metrics and figure out which ones seem to be at cyclic tops and which ones less so.

But as said, sounds extraordinarily difficult in practice to 'beat' the market through value investing principles. More likely to be yet another speedbump contrarian in the S&P 500.

I mean theoretically if PE/10, dividend ratios, earnings, etc start to look a bit 'frothy' in the S&P 500 and related indexes: you could use those times to invest in some of the other asset classes theoretically, assuming their valuations arent also in lock-step which is likely anyways.

For instance right now most asset classes look equally middle of the road to bubbly as far as I can tell. But most likely a 'value' investor say in 1999 would have been absolutely terrified of equity markets [esp tech]. So perhaps in generational frequency (aka not very often) one can do some minor tweaks due to gross value principles.
« Last Edit: June 07, 2013, 11:49:02 AM by Joet »

grantmeaname

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #22 on: June 07, 2013, 11:55:28 AM »
I mean theoretically if PE/10, dividend ratios, earnings, etc start to look a bit 'frothy' in the S&P 500 and related indexes: you could use those times to invest in some of the other asset classes theoretically, assuming their valuations arent also in lock-step which is likely anyways.
Don't unconstrained and all-asset funds like Mainstay Marketfield, Eaton Vance Global Macro Absolute Return, John Hancock Global Absolute Return Strategies, PIMCO All-Asset, PIMCO Unconstrained, PIMCO Global Multi-Asset attempt to do exactly that and fail to outperform in the process?

smedleyb

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #23 on: June 07, 2013, 12:18:10 PM »
Also, mutual fund companies can't do it, and they've got expertise and analysts out their asses.

When stocks are in an unrelenting upward trajectory (this is the longest the DOW has gone without a 3 day correction since 1900), all market timing strategies look foolish.  Active funds (mutual, hedge) look especially foolish, especially on the hedge fund side, where 2% of AUM plus 20% of capital gains flow directly into their coffers for the sole privilege of underperforming the S&P.

I think with a strong close today (ideally above S&P 1650) which holds over the next several days puts the bulls back in control and on parade with their sights set on overthrowing the notorious Mr. Mark top! (Orlando says even Mr. Mark can't contain the market, and I would agree). And given that most around here are long and strong, I say a higher market is a good  - no, a great -- thing. 

Personally I'm willing to sacrifice some performance for the psychological comfort of having a large cash balance on hand (which, BTW, is being leveraged constantly on a local level to earn far above the paltry amounts paid out in MM funds, and slightly above the rate of inflation), especially if you look at it in terms of my overall asset mix (commercial real estate, home equity, business, bonds, etc.) 

Good luck everybody and stay true to yourselves. 


Joet

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #24 on: June 07, 2013, 01:53:38 PM »
I mean theoretically if PE/10, dividend ratios, earnings, etc start to look a bit 'frothy' in the S&P 500 and related indexes: you could use those times to invest in some of the other asset classes theoretically, assuming their valuations arent also in lock-step which is likely anyways.
Don't unconstrained and all-asset funds like Mainstay Marketfield, Eaton Vance Global Macro Absolute Return, John Hancock Global Absolute Return Strategies, PIMCO All-Asset, PIMCO Unconstrained, PIMCO Global Multi-Asset attempt to do exactly that and fail to outperform in the process?

I think they're a bit more tactical in nature and perform various hedging/arbitrage-pentuple-inverse-prudent-bear shennagins. I'm talking a far more glacial pace. You know, like a redwood tree might. Hey looks its gonna be a dry year! [oh well, wake me up in a couple years]

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #25 on: June 07, 2013, 04:30:55 PM »
I think they're a bit more tactical in nature and perform various hedging/arbitrage-pentuple-inverse-prudent-bear shennagins. I'm talking a far more glacial pace. You know, like a redwood tree might. Hey looks its gonna be a dry year! [oh well, wake me up in a couple years]

Exactly.  The value fund (or at least the ones I would consider investing in) buys a particular stock when it appears to be a good value, technically, and holds it for the long term.  Don't know if this is true of the whole market, but at least over the last decade, the value fund I own has done somewhat better - 1-2 percentage points - than the S&P 500 index funs.

Mr Mark

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #26 on: June 07, 2013, 05:44:22 PM »
Also, mutual fund companies can't do it, and they've got expertise and analysts out their asses.

When stocks are in an unrelenting upward trajectory (this is the longest the DOW has gone without a 3 day correction since 1900), all market timing strategies look foolish.  Active funds (mutual, hedge) look especially foolish, especially on the hedge fund side, where 2% of AUM plus 20% of capital gains flow directly into their coffers for the sole privilege of underperforming the S&P.

I think with a strong close today (ideally above S&P 1650) which holds over the next several days puts the bulls back in control and on parade with their sights set on overthrowing the notorious Mr. Mark top! (Orlando says even Mr. Mark can't contain the market, and I would agree). And given that most around here are long and strong, I say a higher market is a good  - no, a great -- thing. 

Personally I'm willing to sacrifice some performance for the psychological comfort of having a large cash balance on hand (which, BTW, is being leveraged constantly on a local level to earn far above the paltry amounts paid out in MM funds, and slightly above the rate of inflation), especially if you look at it in terms of my overall asset mix (commercial real estate, home equity, business, bonds, etc.) 

Good luck everybody and stay true to yourselves.

Nice one. I like the sound of a resistance level in the market due to me, the mouse that roared!


&P 500S&P Indices: .INX - Jun 7 4:38pm ET1643.38+20.82‎ (1.28%‎)

maxOpen High/Low 1625.27/1644.401625.27 VolumeAvg VolMkt Cap576,780,513N/AN/A

You got a strong close. But not enough!

 I agree, the bulls are going to be in charge for a while, in this respect please look back on me as an early mustashian king canute.

SnackDog

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #27 on: June 08, 2013, 04:22:01 AM »
The biggest problem with timing is picking the bottom. Any time you are not invested you risk missing those 1% of trading days which account for 80% of gains. The market goes up in spurts then is nearly flat for a while. Timing the market is what prevents most everyone from beating the indexes. The only problem with index investing is in a mutual fund you will have losses but can't get a tax deduction.

chucklesmcgee

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #28 on: June 10, 2013, 07:59:07 AM »
Also, mutual fund companies can't do it, and they've got expertise and analysts out their asses.

When stocks are in an unrelenting upward trajectory (this is the longest the DOW has gone without a 3 day correction since 1900), all market timing strategies look foolish.

Not necessarily! Unless they're compared against the index funds (which most investors/active fund companies don't!) "All of our funds have returned 10% or more in the past 3 years" sure looks pretty smart at first glance!

Freeyourchains2

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #29 on: June 12, 2013, 10:19:11 AM »
Also, mutual fund companies can't do it, and they've got expertise and analysts out their asses.

Because they have hundreds of employees who are too scared to take a risk because they may be fired at will by a owner and lose the job they depend on so much to live.

It only took one man to create the Industrial Revolution single handedly, Nichola Tesla, after wasting a year under a owner(thomas edison) who never paid him what he promised him($1 Million).


matchewed

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #30 on: June 12, 2013, 10:53:42 AM »
Also, mutual fund companies can't do it, and they've got expertise and analysts out their asses.

Because they have hundreds of employees who are too scared to take a risk because they may be fired at will by a owner and lose the job they depend on so much to live.

It only took one man to create the Industrial Revolution single handedly, Nichola Tesla, after wasting a year under a owner(thomas edison) who never paid him what he promised him($1 Million).



See the other thread on market timing. You're claim is that the reason that mutual fund companies are notoriously bad at market timing is because they do not allow risk? That doesn't make any sense whatsoever. If market timing did work regularly mutual fund companies would be great at it regardless of risk because the risk at attempting it would be minimized due to the fact that it works regularly.

Look I'm as much of a Nikola Tesla fanboy as the next geek but you're just being silly. No one person can be given the credit for creating anything so large and dynamic as the Industrial Revolution. And WTH does this have to do with mutual funds?


grantmeaname

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #31 on: June 12, 2013, 11:13:05 AM »
It only took one man to create the Industrial Revolution single handedly, Nichola Tesla, after wasting a year under a owner(thomas edison) who never paid him what he promised him($1 Million).
The industrial revolution was well underway before Tesla was born.

Undecided

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #32 on: June 12, 2013, 11:35:14 AM »
Also, mutual fund companies can't do it, and they've got expertise and analysts out their asses.

Because they have hundreds of employees who are too scared to take a risk because they may be fired at will by a owner and lose the job they depend on so much to live.

It only took one man to create the Industrial Revolution single handedly, Nichola Tesla, after wasting a year under a owner(thomas edison) who never paid him what he promised him($1 Million).

Leaving aside that Tesla wasn't born until after the industrial revolution (under every working description of which I'm aware), if the market-beating possibility is there, why do the employees need to be dependent on their job? Surely their market beating strategies would allow them to run their own funds.

smedleyb

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #33 on: June 20, 2013, 01:10:20 PM »
All asset classes moving significantly lower today: stocks (global), bonds, real estate (REITs), Gold, etc.  Nowhere to hide as the fed prepares to begin mopping up all the excess liquidity it has dumped into the economy over the past 4 years.  I guess we'll find out soon enough how strong this economy is and if it can stand on it's own two feet, or if the rise in asset classes over the past several years was simply the effect of speculative activity fueled by an overabundance of liquidity. 

The Mr. Mark top is alive and well.  The only question that remains to be seen if it ends up being the top, or just a top. 

Don't you love how the market punishes gloating? 

arebelspy

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #34 on: June 20, 2013, 01:15:49 PM »
Nowhere to hide 

So what are you investing in?  Buying puts?

Don't you love how the market punishes gloating?

I'm sure "the market" took notice of that post and decided to go lower, yes.
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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #35 on: June 20, 2013, 01:22:13 PM »
Markets always notice hubris, be if from bulls or bears.


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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #36 on: June 20, 2013, 08:34:01 PM »
Tomorrow I'm calling bottom. All you *I'm in cash waiting for the correction*  -   here it is.

Have at it.

Everyone else with a regular buy, I'd accelerate a bit, tomorrow, and run down emergency cash reserves temporarily to take the bargain opportunity now in equities.

Just sayin'



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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #37 on: June 20, 2013, 11:08:28 PM »
Tomorrow I'm calling bottom. All you *I'm in cash waiting for the correction*  -   here it is.

Have at it.

Everyone else with a regular buy, I'd accelerate a bit, tomorrow, and run down emergency cash reserves temporarily to take the bargain opportunity now in equities.

Just sayin'

I love the bullishness!

FWIW, I think a bounce is in order, too (what, with S&P down nearly 5% in a straight line since the Fed statement).  But I'm not ruling out a Black Friday event, either.  How's that for hedging? lol!

As long as the S&P remains below 1650, I think the bears are in control.  By all means deploy cash but realize that recent volatility will persist as markets adjust to the Fed policy of tapering bond purchases (reduced QE).  No, I don't think the sky is falling -- yet.  Yes, I think better intermediate term buy points await the patient investor (200 DMA at 1510  comes to mind, but it will likely overshoot that level by 1-3% on the first test.  That's my buy for a trade zone). 

Let's delve into the fundamental issue: market timing.  This thread appeared the day the market averages spiked to all time highs, only to reverse on high volume and to close near the lows at the end of the day.  In technical analysis this is referred to as a major reversal day (which I recognized forming when I said the top may be in).  Now combine this technical event with rampant bullishness (everyone it seemed thought the market had nowhere to go but up) and some of the vital ingredients were there for a minor/major top to form.  I mentioned above in another post that the SPX needed to recapture 1650 and maintain that level for several sessions for the bulls to reassert their dominance.  But low and behold it failed exactly there Wed. afternoon after hovering around that level Tuesday afternoon and into the Fed statement.  Is that really just a coincidence?

Of course, in investing, as in life, one man's trash is another man's treasure.   


 
   



 








arebelspy

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #38 on: June 20, 2013, 11:14:12 PM »

FWIW, I think a bounce is in order, too (what, with S&P down nearly 5% in a straight line since the Fed statement).  But I'm not ruling out a Black Friday event, either.  How's that for hedging? lol!

...

 Is that really just a coincidence?


It's a coincidence in the same way that if we have a Black Friday type event in the next few months I expect you to say you called it and ask if that was a coincidence.

In other words, were Nostradamus' predictions coincidences?  Answer that honestly.
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smedleyb

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #39 on: June 20, 2013, 11:23:50 PM »

FWIW, I think a bounce is in order, too (what, with S&P down nearly 5% in a straight line since the Fed statement).  But I'm not ruling out a Black Friday event, either.  How's that for hedging? lol!

...

 Is that really just a coincidence?


It's a coincidence in the same way that if we have a Black Friday type event in the next few months I expect you to say you called it and ask if that was a coincidence.

In other words, were Nostradamus' predictions coincidences?  Answer that honestly.

Answer what honestly?  I'm nothing but honest, I honestly express my opinions based on 15 years of close market scrutiny, not to mention I've made several predictions in this thread, including identifying a potential intermediate top, and identifying SPX 1650 as a critical resistance level (bullish above, bearish below).  Yet you seize upon one line which is clearly a joking admission that I don't know what happens tomorrow.

You cling to your presuppositions, and I'll cling to my charts and gauge of investor psychology and structural fundamentals (QE meth) which are and have been flashing caution for many months. 

arebelspy

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #40 on: June 20, 2013, 11:33:06 PM »
I don't know what happens tomorrow....which are and have been flashing caution for many months. 

Yeah, I've been thinking there will be a drop, too.  But my belief of "I don't know" (your emphasis) means I don't act on it.

I find it interesting that you hold the belief that you don't know either, yet you're willing to bet to the contrary.

Another thing I find interesting, but maybe not surprising, is that you didn't answer my question.
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smedleyb

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #41 on: June 20, 2013, 11:42:28 PM »
I don't know what happens tomorrow....which are and have been flashing caution for many months. 

Yeah, I've been thinking there will be a drop, too.  But my belief of "I don't know" (your emphasis) means I don't act on it.

I find it interesting that you hold the belief that you don't know either, yet you're willing to bet to the contrary.

Another thing I find interesting, but maybe not surprising, is that you didn't answer my question.

What, I didn't answer the question which attempts to draw parallels between my insights gleamed from years of intense analysis and study of financial markets with the vague, aphoristic prognostications of a deranged European soothsayer?

 




arebelspy

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Re: why we can't time the market
« Reply #42 on: June 20, 2013, 11:43:19 PM »
What, I didn't answer the question which attempts to draw parallels between my insights gleamed from years of intense analysis and study of financial markets with the vague, aphoristic prognostications of a deranged European soothsayer?

..right.

You aren't European.


;)
We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and are now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about us, or how we did that, or see lots of pictures, this Business Insider profile tells our story pretty well.
We (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out our Now page to see what we're up to currently.