To feed off that article. I don't know any stock I can say for sure won't go down 30% in the next year. I will also have a hard time saying what companies will still be around in 10 years. I would imagine Coke, McDonalds, Starbucks, WalMart, etc. But with Apple its hard. With facebook its even harder.
Which brings me to the total market index or the 500 index, either one. I don't know if it will go down 30% next year, but I'm 99.99999999999%(baring end of the world) that ALL of those companies won't go under in the next 10 years. So I'm positive it will still be there in 10 years, and I have a pretty strong feeling it will also be worth more in 10 years.