Thank you bacchi, saved me the trouble of posting that.
Tesla requires new models and new markets for their growth. Sales peak in every market as a new model is introduced then tapers off. This while sales of new models cut into sales of older models. Sales in USA peaked in 18, Europe in 19, and likely China in 20 or 21. When (if) a new cheaper model is introduced it will likely follow the same pattern.
This reminded of a game called "Car Tycoon". In the game you will see this sales cycle. Good times dont last unless you refresh the models continuously and strategically.
As usual, 3toe is a fountain of misinformation on the topic of Tesla. Tesla sales did not peak in the US in 2018 as he/she claims.
2018 - 197,517
2019 - 195,125
2020 - 292,902
So, after basically flat US sales from 2018 - 2019, Tesla sales increased 33% from 2019 to 2020. It's also inaccurate to say sales peaked in Europe in 2019. Sales numbers for all of Europe for 2020 have not been released. Misleading articles citing fewer sales in Northern Europe through Nov, but ignoring the Dec deliveries push and a rise in sales in UK and Germany are the source of this misleading headline that 3toe is trumpeting. It’s very likely, Tesla sold more cars in Europe in 2020 than they did in 2019. It may also be true that Tesla’s share of the total EV market in Europe declined, but that is due to the rapidly increasing size of the total EV pie and Tesla’s production constraints.
Beware of any one that points to Tesla sales in one country or region for a month, quarter or even a single year as evidence of a lack of demand. Since Tesla is supply constrained, they prioritize shipments and deliveries to different countries and regions in different times of the year/quarter and can not meet all demand in every location. The renewal and expiry of various tax incentives can also effect where deliveries are made from quarter to quarter. It leaves their supply chain lumpy and uneven until they complete their factories in Berlin and Austin, which come on line in 2021. I guess Tesla is building new factories simultaneously to meet their flagging demand.
The real picture, and the only one that really matters, is told by global sales year over year and the numbers speak for themselves. Tesla is growing exponentially despite not engaging in any real advertising or marketing, having no dealerships, and only selling cars in half the world’s auto markets (no SA, India, Africa, ME, Korea, etc.). And, despite only serving the $40K and up market segment. There are numerous demand levers Tesla has yet to pull and still they sell every car they make as they make them while growing sales an average of 40% YOY.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/502208/tesla-quarterly-vehicle-deliveries/