Back to the original question, "Why not do 100% allocation, draw 4% at retirement, and yolo it?"
Why not? Well, I find the quoted post below, titled
Importance of stock/bond allocation, from Taylor Larimore over on the bogleheads.org site instructive. (Bolded text is highlighted by me, not Taylor.)
I guess that the lesson is that it is important to select an appropriate Asset Allocation now, before a downturn comes, as to never face the need for a plan B.
Thanks you!
Longvest:
You are absolutely right.
An investor should never have more in stocks than they can afford to lose. I learned this from my own family experience:"
Our family owned "
Larimore's Diner" in Foxboro, Mass. in 1929. When the depression hit, my parents lost the
Diner and we moved to Miami into one of my grandfather's empty homes.
My Grandfather, Christopher F. Coombs, was one of the three principals of
American Founders Group, the largest investment trust in the roaring 20s. He lost nearly everything (approximately $50M)--including the Miami home we lived in (next door to where I live today).
These figures show what REAL bear markets are like:
BEAR MARKET OF 1929-1937 One huge loss after another. (Dow plunged 89%)
-1929--1930--1931--1932
(-31%)(-25%)(-43%)(-08%) Large Cap Stocks
(-34%)(-35%)(-47%)(-06%) Mid/Small Cap Stocks
(-47%)(-38%)(-50%)(-05%) Micro Cap Stocks
(+04%)(+07%)(-02%)(+09%) 5-Year Treasury Bonds
BEAR MARKET OF 1973-1976 (S&P fell 43%)
-1973--1974
(-15%)(-26%) Large Caps
(-39%)(-29%) Micro Caps
---(-70%) Coca-Cola
---(-82%) Intel
---(-73%) McDonald's
---(-86%) Merrill Lynch
---(-86%) Walt Disney
---(-71%) Xerox
Figures cannot convey the horrifying and debilitating effects of a deep and long bear market. You watch in agony as month after month your life savings evaporate before your eyes. Gloom and doom articles are in the media, radio, (and now TV and internet). Nearly everyone else is selling. You have no idea when, or if, your portfolio will stop losing money.
Your friends and relatives urge you to sell. Nearly all financial experts recommend "sell". You are ridiculed for trying to hold on. You begin to have self-doubt. Dispair sets in. Buying stocks is unthinkable. Divorce and suicide's increase.
That's what a bad bear market is like.
Best wishes.
Taylor
[/quote]
You can see the thread here:
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=142846