If you wish to go off on me and tell the board how wrong I am and me trying to time the market here is a fool’s errand, go ahead.
Sure. I'm looking forward to your response to my earlier reply to a similar post of yours:
What's the best sign that some people are selling? Market price. Simply looking at a graph shows us that people are getting out. But what else does it show us?
Remember, for every dollar that's selling,
there's a corresponding dollar that's buying. So for every "smart guy/gal or big boy/girl" who is getting out, another one is getting in at that exact point! Who are you to know that one half is smarter than the other half? What information do you think you have, that they don't?
Have you ever read Nassim Taleb's "The Black Swan". It's a fascinating book. In one chapter he discusses a strange phenomena, where people in the financial world are consistently
wrong with their predictions, yet nobody seems to care. Someone could be wrong 95% of the time, and still be considered an expert. In any other discipline, when someone is consistently wrong, you'd stop listening to them. I wondered if that's the case here, so I decided to find the oldest information available on that site you recommended, and see how their predictions held up.
The oldest content on that page was a 2012 outlook video. I listed out his predictions, and compared them against what happened:
Prediction: 10-12% housing price decline
Result: Housing market up 8.1%
Prediction: The demise of the Eurozone as a whole
Result: Nope. Eurozone is still here.
Prediction: Oil prices higher.
Result: Oil down 13%
Prediction: I expect the dollar to do better this year, simply because of the Eurozone crisis
Result: USD fell 1.86% against the EUR in 2012
Prediction: Gold went through the roof recently, it's got to consolidate, won't be a great performer this year
Result: Gold went up 11% a few times, and ended the year up 5%
Prediction: "2012 is going to look a lot like 2011"
Result: Nope
Prediction: "Anything other than apocalypse is a win"
Result: US GDP rose to almost pre-crash levels, and the stock market rose 16%
Looking through these predictions, and the other articles on that site, it seems like
Eric's response in the other thread fits perfectly:
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The only problem with the graph is that it assumes that anyone following
zerohedge realinvestmentadvice.com still had money in the market in 2016. Everyone at
zerohedge realinvestmentadvice.com knew that the crash was right around the corner in 2012. And 2013. And 2014. And 2015.
If you followed
zerohedge realinvestmentadvice.com for the right week, you'd know that you could've avoided all of the losses of the last month
by simply avoiding the gains of the last few years.
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Cougar, I have a genuine question, and I urge you to answer honestly...Why do you still pay attention to these people?