Author Topic: Who's Shorting?  (Read 6590 times)

waltworks

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #50 on: April 13, 2020, 11:47:57 AM »
Worth noting that the survival rate of restaurants is low in normal times, though. I don't have hard numbers but based on a quick google (https://yourbusiness.azcentral.com/average-life-span-restaurant-6024.html)

"The Perry Group study concluded that most restaurants close during their first year of operation. Seventy percent of those that make it past the first year close their doors in the next three to five years. Ninety percent of the restaurants that are still operating past the five-year mark will stay in business for a minimum of 10 years. The Restaurant Brokersí study, the only one to make a distinction between chain and independent restaurants, concluded that up to 90 percent of independent establishments close during the first year, and the remaining restaurants will have an average five-year life span."

So if 30 percent of extant restaurants survived, that might actually not be too bad. But without knowing how many restaurants are long-running (tend to survive) vs new (almost never do) it's hard to say for sure.

-W

maizefolk

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #51 on: April 13, 2020, 01:14:56 PM »
I hadn't thought of that confounding factor. Thanks for pointing it out, Waltworks!

ChpBstrd

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #52 on: April 13, 2020, 02:27:37 PM »
Worth noting that the survival rate of restaurants is low in normal times, though. I don't have hard numbers but based on a quick google (https://yourbusiness.azcentral.com/average-life-span-restaurant-6024.html)

"The Perry Group study concluded that most restaurants close during their first year of operation. Seventy percent of those that make it past the first year close their doors in the next three to five years. Ninety percent of the restaurants that are still operating past the five-year mark will stay in business for a minimum of 10 years. The Restaurant Brokersí study, the only one to make a distinction between chain and independent restaurants, concluded that up to 90 percent of independent establishments close during the first year, and the remaining restaurants will have an average five-year life span."

So if 30 percent of extant restaurants survived, that might actually not be too bad. But without knowing how many restaurants are long-running (tend to survive) vs new (almost never do) it's hard to say for sure.

-W

Entrepreneurs are crazy to go into the restaurant business. Hard to imagine how each failure represents someoneís substantial life savings. Iíd throw it all into leveraged mortgage REITs and hope to earn 15% before doing something like that.

That said, after a decade+ of economic expansion, weíve probably reached peak restaurant in all categories. A lot of them need to disappear and never come back, or else the supply could exceed demand for years. Looking at you Subway, Wendyís, Fridayís, Outback, McVomitís, and 100,000 low end ďMexicanĒ restaurants. Yet that represents a lot of working class jobs.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #53 on: April 13, 2020, 03:48:02 PM »
There was another qualification there; that enough damaged businesses survive. Thatís just not going to happen under a much further extended lockdown. The restaurant industry is going to be decimated as are things like sports or movie theaters where the business model relies at least in part on lots of people congregating in one place. There is roughly zero chance Iím going to sit in a crowded restaurant until such time as this has blown over. I donít think Iím at all unique in that respect.

Fascinating new survey data out from the economics research bureau (a bit of a dense read but I enjoyed it). Median small business had only enough cash on hand to cover two weeks worth of expenses. The PPP loans (if they go out in time and if the program doesn't run out of money) might add a couple of extra months on to the end of that.

But if the crisis lasts just four months, only 47% of small businesses anticipate still being open (or reopening) but December of this year. Restaurants anticipate only a 30% chance of surviving or reopening if the crisis lasts four months.



That was a fascinating paper. Worth the read. And Iím so stealing it. Thanks!

One takeaway is that business optimism goes up markedly if they can actually access that PPP program. Iím a bit skeptical given that the priority is usually on the needs of the large business sector. If small business faces adversity, itís a problem. If large businesses face adversity, itís an existential crisis.

Telecaster

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #54 on: April 13, 2020, 04:36:01 PM »
The biggest risk is that COVID-19 doesn't go away within a month or two, and instead slow-burns through suburbia for the next 6-12 months. China, South Korea, and now New York City have proven that the only way to even flatten the curve is a draconian full quarantine and hard economic stop for multiple weeks. Thus, a bullish bet on the market is a claim about biology - a claim that the virus can only spread in dense megacities and not at Family Dollar or the McDonald's drive thru in cities with 10k people. I'm not so sure about that.

I have no confidence it will go away quickly.  For things to sort of return to normal, testing and contact tracing on an epic scale would be required.  Otherwise we'll continue to get flare ups in workplaces and factors and just have to shut down again.  Until there is a vaccine or some effective treatment I wouldn't ride in an airplane or go to a sporting event would you?  Most people won't. 

waltworks

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #55 on: April 13, 2020, 05:14:21 PM »
Epic contact tracing/testing program + lots of people out of work + gov't willing to back up the Brinks truck...

Hmmm.

-W

Telecaster

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #56 on: April 13, 2020, 06:32:24 PM »
Epic contact tracing/testing program + lots of people out of work + gov't willing to back up the Brinks truck...

Hmmm.

-W

Normally, I'd agree, but there don't seem to be any plans in place to do any of this.   Last week Trump said twice it was the states' job to do testing.  States can't back up the Brinks truck.  Only the federal government can do that. 

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/13/832797592/a-month-after-emergency-declaration-trumps-promises-largely-unfulfilled

We might need millions, maybe tens of millions of tests a day:

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment

^ Worth reading the article.  It is depressing, but sobering.   

hodedofome

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #57 on: April 13, 2020, 08:09:20 PM »
I am only taking swing trades for shorts, and Iím only shorting the junkiest junk out there (restaurants, entertainment, commercial real estate, etc). Thereís a lot of bullishnish out there and you can get run over quickly with a gap up overnight.

I have much more risk on the long side the past few weeks.

waltworks

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #58 on: April 13, 2020, 09:57:38 PM »
Sure, Trump's a jerk and an idiot. But he eventually does concede to reality, usually. His advisors/Fox News are pretty good at massaging his ego until he does something resembling the right thing, so all we really need is Hannity to start talking about it.

-W

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #59 on: April 14, 2020, 07:50:31 AM »

Normally, I'd agree, but there don't seem to be any plans in place to do any of this.   Last week Trump said twice it was the states' job to do testing.  States can't back up the Brinks truck.  Only the federal government can do that. 

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/13/832797592/a-month-after-emergency-declaration-trumps-promises-largely-unfulfilled

We might need millions, maybe tens of millions of tests a day:

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment

^ Worth reading the article.  It is depressing, but sobering.

That second article was quite interesting.  Thanks for posting. 

Here's an interesting counterpoint.  Blogger comparing results between UK, which is pretty much locked down, and Sweden which hasn't really done any of that (although they're recommending folks stay home, social distance, etc.)

http://www.theblogmire.com/a-comparison-of-lockdown-uk-with-non-lockdown-sweden/

ChpBstrd

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #60 on: April 14, 2020, 09:05:15 AM »

Normally, I'd agree, but there don't seem to be any plans in place to do any of this.   Last week Trump said twice it was the states' job to do testing.  States can't back up the Brinks truck.  Only the federal government can do that. 

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/13/832797592/a-month-after-emergency-declaration-trumps-promises-largely-unfulfilled

We might need millions, maybe tens of millions of tests a day:

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment

^ Worth reading the article.  It is depressing, but sobering.

That second article was quite interesting.  Thanks for posting. 

Here's an interesting counterpoint.  Blogger comparing results between UK, which is pretty much locked down, and Sweden which hasn't really done any of that (although they're recommending folks stay home, social distance, etc.)

http://www.theblogmire.com/a-comparison-of-lockdown-uk-with-non-lockdown-sweden/

IDK. Sweden doesn't contain a megacity or have anything like the UK's international air traffic constantly seeding new cases.

It's kind of like comparing Alaska or Montana to New York or New Jersey. "Social distancing" is built into the lifestyle in some places, while other places feature unavoidable crowds, shared stairwells and building doorknobs, docks for cruise ships, airports, etc.

What I'm seeing is that COVID-19 tends to ravage through densely populated cities, and expand at a slower pace in suburban/rural areas. In my suburban/rural state, schools are closed and restaurants are takeout-only, but not much else has changed. These modest measures may be sufficient to extinguish COVID-19 because people aren't spending enough time in proximity to each other anyway*. Modest measures in a more spread-out area may create an equal amount of social distance as draconian measures in a packed city.

*other than the religious nuts who pack 1,000's of people shoulder to shoulder into a building and have them all shake hands during a pandemic because it's a test of faith - and then threaten the local government with political consequences if they insist on "oppressing" their faith.

Davnasty

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #61 on: April 14, 2020, 09:24:06 AM »

Normally, I'd agree, but there don't seem to be any plans in place to do any of this.   Last week Trump said twice it was the states' job to do testing.  States can't back up the Brinks truck.  Only the federal government can do that. 

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/13/832797592/a-month-after-emergency-declaration-trumps-promises-largely-unfulfilled

We might need millions, maybe tens of millions of tests a day:

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment

^ Worth reading the article.  It is depressing, but sobering.

That second article was quite interesting.  Thanks for posting. 

Here's an interesting counterpoint.  Blogger comparing results between UK, which is pretty much locked down, and Sweden which hasn't really done any of that (although they're recommending folks stay home, social distance, etc.)

http://www.theblogmire.com/a-comparison-of-lockdown-uk-with-non-lockdown-sweden/

IDK. Sweden doesn't contain a megacity or have anything like the UK's international air traffic constantly seeding new cases.

It's kind of like comparing Alaska or Montana to New York or New Jersey. "Social distancing" is built into the lifestyle in some places, while other places feature unavoidable crowds, shared stairwells and building doorknobs, docks for cruise ships, airports, etc.

What I'm seeing is that COVID-19 tends to ravage through densely populated cities, and expand at a slower pace in suburban/rural areas. In my suburban/rural state, schools are closed and restaurants are takeout-only, but not much else has changed. These modest measures may be sufficient to extinguish COVID-19 because people aren't spending enough time in proximity to each other anyway*. Modest measures in a more spread-out area may create an equal amount of social distance as draconian measures in a packed city.

*other than the religious nuts who pack 1,000's of people shoulder to shoulder into a building and have them all shake hands during a pandemic because it's a test of faith - and then threaten the local government with political consequences if they insist on "oppressing" their faith.

Perhaps it would be better to compare Sweden's outcomes with their neighbors who share a more similar social culture.

Cases/Deaths per million
Sweden: 1119/101
Norway: 1230*/25
Finland: 573/12

*Norway's higher confirmed case count is likely due to their rate of testing which is ~4x greater than Sweden's

ChpBstrd

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #62 on: April 14, 2020, 10:42:44 AM »
I'm thinking about getting back into shorting. Are we really only 17% down at the beginning of a financial crisis? That is, back to levels not seen since March 2019?!

31% of renters are behind on rent:https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/business/economy/coronavirus-rent.html

43% of small businesses are on the verge of collapse (half of Americans work for a small biz): https://www.marketwatch.com/story/43-of-small-businesses-say-theyll-be-forced-to-close-permanently-if-they-dont-get-help-soon-survey-says-2020-04-03

The average small business has a cash buffer of 27 days: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/small-businesses-could-crumble-in-45-days-or-less-as-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-a-toll-2020-03-16?mod=article_inline

69% of Americans have less than $1,000 in savings: https://www.gobankingrates.com/saving-money/savings-advice/americans-have-less-than-1000-in-savings/

Just wait for the mortgage delinquency data. We would only need to go from 2.3% in Q42019 to 10% to match the GFC. That took 9 quarters last time, but given the facts above I wouldn't be surprised by a faster trajectory this time. If homeowners miss payments at only half the pace of renters, we're there in a couple months. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRSFRMACBS

And, of course, Trump is itching to declare the economy reopened any day now, repeating the mistake made by St. Louis during the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, except on a national scale: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/24/21188121/coronavirus-covid-19-social-distancing-1918-spanish-flu

Hopefully, the little war of words between Fauci and Trump is over, with the conclusion on both sides being that Fauci has Trump by the gonads. Fire Fauci for telling the truth and you'll face a stock meltdown or create an attack line for Biden, Trump was told by his advisors.

In summary, while I 100% agree with the $2T stimulus bills, I have doubts that (1) it will reach small businesses before they hit zero in the next 30 days or so, (2) small businesses will be able / willing to borrow enough to cover their six-or-seven-figure cash flow needs over the next few months, (3) the additional debt won't push small business owners even closer to a bankruptcy decision, and (4) any of this will prevent a wave of consumer and mortgage debt defaults within the next 6 months, even if small businesses are re-floated at an extraordinary pace.

Then again I could be completely wrong and the next wave is led by sovereign defaults, a euro crisis, a financial crisis originating in Latin America or Southeast Asia, an outbreak in Tokyo or India, a US constitutional crisis around the election, or just a slow, grinding economic malaise.

appleshampooid

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #63 on: April 14, 2020, 10:46:08 AM »
It certainly seems like the buyers in the market aren't looking at the same set of facts. Then again, I am one of those buyers :D

waltworks

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #64 on: April 14, 2020, 11:17:57 AM »
Market doesn't have to do what you, or I, think it should. That's why I just buy when I have money.

-W

Hargrove

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #65 on: April 14, 2020, 02:05:55 PM »
Thank you for the discussion. I have never been as tempted to time the market as today, with the Nasdaq up 4% and the stock market appearing, to me, divorced from reality. I decided not to anyway. If it hikes to a goal I pre-set, I will bow out until this blows over, but I'm not intervening to say I know better. I actually think several arguments in this thread DO know better. The more problematic issue is that you're not betting that you know better - my only argument against the analyses that this is bigger than we yet know is just the reminder that you're also arguing that other people will notice they don't know better at a convenient moment, and it's that piece which I find impossible to predict, myself.

Starting a restaurant business was insane prior to this. The stats are as grim as previously mentioned, only the true environment is worse. Inside the industry, there is/was a general lack of awareness of how unlikely it is to pan out, and a general surplus of surprize when it doesn't, and especially surprize and anger over how difficult it is. Financiers don't open restaurants - people who love food, cooking, and hosting do, as well as people who have always worked in kitchens. Many of them approach funding like young people approach college - "guess this is the price I have to pay then, right?" I almost never see broad-spectrum analysis about the viability of the industry from inside the industry. That's sad and I wish it were different - these are some really hardworking people.

Restaurants are often 1-3 days from bouncing payments. The cash on hand is not high. The incentive to say "I worked hard for what I take home" is enormous - imagine someone pitching you to invest a quarter million in order to buy an 80-hour-a-week job that pays 45-65k. Then what, somebody tells you buy the way, build up a 50-100k cash cusion? How? How do you shutter for 3-9 weeks waiting for loans we still can't successfully get out to people when you have 3 days' cash on-hand? I think an awful lot of these small businesses, bought with maximum-leveraged investments that evaporated, won't have a source from which to reappear. Chains will reap the rewards that survive the joblessness.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #66 on: April 14, 2020, 02:23:49 PM »
I'm thinking about getting back into shorting. Are we really only 17% down at the beginning of a financial crisis? That is, back to levels not seen since March 2019?!

31% of renters are behind on rent:https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/business/economy/coronavirus-rent.html

43% of small businesses are on the verge of collapse (half of Americans work for a small biz): https://www.marketwatch.com/story/43-of-small-businesses-say-theyll-be-forced-to-close-permanently-if-they-dont-get-help-soon-survey-says-2020-04-03

The average small business has a cash buffer of 27 days: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/small-businesses-could-crumble-in-45-days-or-less-as-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-a-toll-2020-03-16?mod=article_inline

69% of Americans have less than $1,000 in savings: https://www.gobankingrates.com/saving-money/savings-advice/americans-have-less-than-1000-in-savings/

Just wait for the mortgage delinquency data. We would only need to go from 2.3% in Q42019 to 10% to match the GFC. That took 9 quarters last time, but given the facts above I wouldn't be surprised by a faster trajectory this time. If homeowners miss payments at only half the pace of renters, we're there in a couple months. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRSFRMACBS

And, of course, Trump is itching to declare the economy reopened any day now, repeating the mistake made by St. Louis during the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, except on a national scale: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/24/21188121/coronavirus-covid-19-social-distancing-1918-spanish-flu

Hopefully, the little war of words between Fauci and Trump is over, with the conclusion on both sides being that Fauci has Trump by the gonads. Fire Fauci for telling the truth and you'll face a stock meltdown or create an attack line for Biden, Trump was told by his advisors.

In summary, while I 100% agree with the $2T stimulus bills, I have doubts that (1) it will reach small businesses before they hit zero in the next 30 days or so, (2) small businesses will be able / willing to borrow enough to cover their six-or-seven-figure cash flow needs over the next few months, (3) the additional debt won't push small business owners even closer to a bankruptcy decision, and (4) any of this will prevent a wave of consumer and mortgage debt defaults within the next 6 months, even if small businesses are re-floated at an extraordinary pace.

Then again I could be completely wrong and the next wave is led by sovereign defaults, a euro crisis, a financial crisis originating in Latin America or Southeast Asia, an outbreak in Tokyo or India, a US constitutional crisis around the election, or just a slow, grinding economic malaise.

I think your analysis is missing the point. The environments that the businesses that are publicly traded in is different from that of small business. Youíre absolutely, completely right that the state of the US economy his in dire straits. It is a small business driven economy. However where the cavalry (the Fed) is directing its attention is to the ever shrinking number of public companies and those companies with publicly traded debt. The Fed has their backs. Small business? Well, it sucks to be you.

What youíre really gambling on with traded equities is how long and how far the Fed will go to cover publicly traded companies and at what point that support will be withdrawn or ďtapered.Ē 

If that sort of gamble appeals, I really do hope it works out. Itís just not for me. If Iím going to gamble, I prefer a casino. At least there I get free drinks.

bwall

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #67 on: April 15, 2020, 06:42:54 AM »
@ChpBstrd @Buffaloski Boris

Two great analyses!

This is the reason I enjoy these forums. Great analyses by people who view the same information and provide two different-yet-similar (i.e. bearish) looks with only a little overlap.

Perhaps my own bearish bias is showing. 

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #68 on: April 15, 2020, 12:26:53 PM »
@ChpBstrd @Buffaloski Boris

Two great analyses!

This is the reason I enjoy these forums. Great analyses by people who view the same information and provide two different-yet-similar (i.e. bearish) looks with only a little overlap.

Perhaps my own bearish bias is showing.

Thanks for the kind words.  Yeah, I guess I'm a bear.  I've thought of myself as more of a nonparticipant based on my views of asset valuation (they're too flipping high!). But even as I'm looking at my relatively low rate of participation, I'm thinking I should walk to the exit. The trend is pretty obvious.   

ChpBstrd

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #69 on: April 15, 2020, 01:36:38 PM »
@ChpBstrd @Buffaloski Boris

Two great analyses!

This is the reason I enjoy these forums. Great analyses by people who view the same information and provide two different-yet-similar (i.e. bearish) looks with only a little overlap.

Perhaps my own bearish bias is showing.

Thanks for the kind words.  Yeah, I guess I'm a bear.  I've thought of myself as more of a nonparticipant based on my views of asset valuation (they're too flipping high!). But even as I'm looking at my relatively low rate of participation, I'm thinking I should walk to the exit. The trend is pretty obvious.

I don't know if I'd call myself a bear. My opinion shifts based on valuations and various other factors that change over time. At least I'd like to think so.

Bottom line, to retire I need sustainable returns of 4-5% plus inflation, preferably plus a point or so of return that can be applied to growth, inflation surprises, or hedging. So maybe 7-9%. That ROI seem astronomical today but was historically available in investment grade bonds. When I see high PE ratios, high price/FCF ratios, demographic graying, asset bubbles, etc. those combined factors all make me think my required returns are not available now, but may be available in the future if I can shepherd most of my portfolio to that point in time. I lived through the tech bubble and housing bubble, and know that the usual advice - to stay 100% invested in stocks all the time - has a mixed payout depending upon one's luck.

waltworks

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #70 on: April 15, 2020, 04:11:30 PM »
I lived through the tech bubble and housing bubble, and know that the usual advice - to stay 100% invested in stocks all the time - has a mixed payout depending upon one's luck.

Were you investing through those events? Because if you were just plugging in even a little money every month since, say, 1998 or something, you're all set by now.

Even just investing $1000 a month since then, starting at zero, you'd have a cool $690k now. If you had any kind of vaguely decent paying job and plugged in $2000 a month, you're a solid millionaire. And that's through 2 major crashes, while doing nothing interesting at all other than not panicking or overthinking it.

Now, if you threw a million bucks in at just the wrong time, of course you are doing horribly. But that's not how investing works for 99% of us.

-W

beltim

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #71 on: April 16, 2020, 11:43:31 AM »
So who else out there is shorting or hedging, and how are you doing so?

I am and have been, by buying in the money put options on SPY (an ETF that tracks the S&P 500).  I have not sold my core equity positions.  I think about it as portfolio protection rather than a naked short: the puts are effectively highly leveraged, but the maximum loss is the purchase price of the put.  I started at the end of February, so I missed the first drop, but like others, I saw that the market was not taking into account the economic impact of COVID-19 hitting the US.

The difficulty with shorts, of course, is that the market can remain irrational longer that we can remain solvent.  Puts prevent being wrong from affecting the rest of my portfolio, which turns out to be a useful decision, as the recent runup over the last three weeks is completely irrational.  The question now, in terms of whether the puts pay off, is whether something will turn market sentiment.  I would have thought 22 million job losses over the past four weeks would have done it, but I was apparently wrong.  Possibilities for something that might still turn market sentiment include earnings reports (although the effect of this on Q1 earnings may not be sufficient), an extension of isolation measures, or another outbreak if isolation measures are ended too soon. 

kenmoremmm

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #72 on: April 16, 2020, 04:14:31 PM »
...an extension of isolation measures, or another outbreak if isolation measures are ended too soon.

i think these are the two most likely issues, but in reverse order.

i see the isolation measures being relaxed, then things go back to semi-normal for 2-4 weeks. then the virus explodes and hospitals are overrun.

at that point in time, another isolation measure is implemented, but it's kind of pointless b/c 50%+ of the country will have had the virus by then.

so, good news is herd immunity is close. bad news is that no one knows what will be allowed/not allowed, what's safe, etc. there'll be huge economic ripples b/c the economy, while "restarted" will sputter for a long time until it's back to full steam. meanwhile, the carnage will lead to immense poverty, the death of small businesses that were barely hanging on, etc. it'll be a fundamental shift, and a sad one.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #73 on: April 16, 2020, 04:35:59 PM »
...an extension of isolation measures, or another outbreak if isolation measures are ended too soon.

i think these are the two most likely issues, but in reverse order.

i see the isolation measures being relaxed, then things go back to semi-normal for 2-4 weeks. then the virus explodes and hospitals are overrun.

at that point in time, another isolation measure is implemented, but it's kind of pointless b/c 50%+ of the country will have had the virus by then.

so, good news is herd immunity is close. bad news is that no one knows what will be allowed/not allowed, what's safe, etc. there'll be huge economic ripples b/c the economy, while "restarted" will sputter for a long time until it's back to full steam. meanwhile, the carnage will lead to immense poverty, the death of small businesses that were barely hanging on, etc. it'll be a fundamental shift, and a sad one.

But wait! There's more!  We don't know how long immunity lasts.  It could be forever, it could be for several months. So it's quite possible that you can catch this crud again. Oh, and there aren't the tests yet to determine who has immunity. 

(Insert quote about the market remaining irrational far longer than you can remain solvent.) 
 

waltworks

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #74 on: April 16, 2020, 05:13:40 PM »
In the civilization-is-over scenario, the price of my holdings won't matter, though, so I'm not going to worry about that.

-W

hodedofome

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #75 on: April 16, 2020, 06:57:57 PM »
My shorts are getting fried like a turkey leg tonight after Trumpís speech. Iíll be covering those tomorrow and letting my longs go to town the rest of the year.

beltim

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #76 on: April 17, 2020, 03:08:11 AM »
...an extension of isolation measures, or another outbreak if isolation measures are ended too soon.

i think these are the two most likely issues, but in reverse order.

i see the isolation measures being relaxed, then things go back to semi-normal for 2-4 weeks. then the virus explodes and hospitals are overrun.

at that point in time, another isolation measure is implemented, but it's kind of pointless b/c 50%+ of the country will have had the virus by then.

so, good news is herd immunity is close. bad news is that no one knows what will be allowed/not allowed, what's safe, etc. there'll be huge economic ripples b/c the economy, while "restarted" will sputter for a long time until it's back to full steam. meanwhile, the carnage will lead to immense poverty, the death of small businesses that were barely hanging on, etc. it'll be a fundamental shift, and a sad one.

I think you drastically overestimate the percentage of the population who have / get the coronavirus in each wave.  The highest data-backed estimate I've seen for the population who have had the virus comes from a Netherlands study that suggests 3% of their population has antibodies.  If you think they're maybe halfway through this wave, that gets you to 6% of the population, which is maybe 1/10 the percentage that you need for herd immunity.

But wait! There's more!  We don't know how long immunity lasts.  It could be forever, it could be for several months. So it's quite possible that you can catch this crud again. Oh, and there aren't the tests yet to determine who has immunity. 

Plus there's this.  Although by analogy and trends with other coronaviruses, it's likely that immunity lasts for at least a year.  Of course, one has to hope that the virus doesn't mutate in the next year to evade that immunity.

In the civilization-is-over scenario, the price of my holdings won't matter, though, so I'm not going to worry about that.

-W

Even in the worst case scenario, a recurring outbreak with 1% case fatality rate to a vulnerable population every year, civilization doesn't end. 

vand

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #77 on: April 17, 2020, 04:24:02 AM »
Gentlemen,

If you are going to trade the markets then you need to learn one of the unviolatable rules of survival - Trade what you SEE, not what you THINK.

Yes, there are a million good reasons why the market could and should go down. But it is not going down - it is going up. That is the simple fact. You do not argue with the market.

That is why I find it hilarious all the pontificating about the current state of the infection rate, the state of small businesses, unemployment rates, and uncle Ed's garage services.  People who think that reading any of these numbers will give them further insight into the direction of the markets are so daft they don't realise that they're the pasty. The market already knows all it all.. and it doesn't have the same opinion on them as you.

Shorters are getting their faces ripped off because their ego is arguing with the market.. and there is only ever going to be one winner in that particular matchup.

Small caps are limit up today. The V rally is very much on.

« Last Edit: April 17, 2020, 04:30:02 AM by vand »

beltim

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #78 on: April 17, 2020, 04:38:01 AM »
The market already knows all it all.. and it doesn't have the same opinion on them as you.

Two economics professors are walking down the street.  One sees a $100 bill just lying on the sidewalk, and says, "Hey, look at that $100 bill just lying on the sidewalk!"  The other responds, "There can't be a $100 bill there Ė if there had been, someone would have picked it up already."

So they both keep walking, leaving the $100 bill lying on the sidewalk.

It's an old joke, but it illustrates an important point about efficient markets: someone has to actually move the market in order to make them efficient.

vand

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #79 on: April 17, 2020, 06:57:10 AM »
The market already knows all it all.. and it doesn't have the same opinion on them as you.

Two economics professors are walking down the street.  One sees a $100 bill just lying on the sidewalk, and says, "Hey, look at that $100 bill just lying on the sidewalk!"  The other responds, "There can't be a $100 bill there Ė if there had been, someone would have picked it up already."

So they both keep walking, leaving the $100 bill lying on the sidewalk.

It's an old joke, but it illustrates an important point about efficient markets: someone has to actually move the market in order to make them efficient.

This is not a discussion about EMH, though.  You can eventually be proven right and still go broke long before getting to say "I told you so" by arguing with the market.


ChpBstrd

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #80 on: April 17, 2020, 07:51:46 AM »
Gentlemen,

If you are going to trade the markets then you need to learn one of the unviolatable rules of survival - Trade what you SEE, not what you THINK.

What I see is tens of millions of people losing their incomes, not buying cars or houses or toys, not taking a cruise, flying, or going to conferences. I see my coworkers losing productivity because they are trying to work from home with small children. I see (and smell!) crystal clear air because local industrial sites are shut down and fewer people are driving. Maybe these are all anecdotes, but thatís what I see.

For empirical data analysis, we usually ask economists what they think. The consensus among them aligns with the anecdotal evidence we can see. E.g. the IMF think weíre in a severe global recession and various government economists think weíll see 10-20% unemployment within months. Then there are the 20 million claims for jobless benefits, which are not opinions.

Perhaps a thinking part is inevitable, because one must then evaluate whether stocks are too expensive given the economic realities. Is it reasonable to pay 21.45X last yearís earnings for the S&P 500 or 33.75x for the Russell 2000 at the start of an economic crisis? Some will think that must be reasonable because thatís what others are paying, but thatís thinking too.

vand

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #81 on: April 17, 2020, 08:11:25 AM »
Gentlemen,

If you are going to trade the markets then you need to learn one of the unviolatable rules of survival - Trade what you SEE, not what you THINK.

What I see is tens of millions of people losing their incomes, not buying cars or houses or toys, not taking a cruise, flying, or going to conferences. I see my coworkers losing productivity because they are trying to work from home with small children. I see (and smell!) crystal clear air because local industrial sites are shut down and fewer people are driving. Maybe these are all anecdotes, but thatís what I see.

For empirical data analysis, we usually ask economists what they think. The consensus among them aligns with the anecdotal evidence we can see. E.g. the IMF think weíre in a severe global recession and various government economists think weíll see 10-20% unemployment within months. Then there are the 20 million claims for jobless benefits, which are not opinions.

Perhaps a thinking part is inevitable, because one must then evaluate whether stocks are too expensive given the economic realities. Is it reasonable to pay 21.45X last yearís earnings for the S&P 500 or 33.75x for the Russell 2000 at the start of an economic crisis? Some will think that must be reasonable because thatís what others are paying, but thatís thinking too.


Yes, there is lots of economic damage being done, but the only thing that matters is which way the market is going.  You are making the  mistake of thinking that the market is obliged to move in lock step with the economy. It isn't, and sometimes the two can be worlds apart.

Blueberries

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #82 on: April 17, 2020, 09:49:10 AM »
Gentlemen,

If you are going to trade the markets then you need to learn one of the unviolatable rules of survival - Trade what you SEE, not what you THINK.

What I see is tens of millions of people losing their incomes, not buying cars or houses or toys, not taking a cruise, flying, or going to conferences. I see my coworkers losing productivity because they are trying to work from home with small children. I see (and smell!) crystal clear air because local industrial sites are shut down and fewer people are driving. Maybe these are all anecdotes, but thatís what I see.

For empirical data analysis, we usually ask economists what they think. The consensus among them aligns with the anecdotal evidence we can see. E.g. the IMF think weíre in a severe global recession and various government economists think weíll see 10-20% unemployment within months. Then there are the 20 million claims for jobless benefits, which are not opinions.

Perhaps a thinking part is inevitable, because one must then evaluate whether stocks are too expensive given the economic realities. Is it reasonable to pay 21.45X last yearís earnings for the S&P 500 or 33.75x for the Russell 2000 at the start of an economic crisis? Some will think that must be reasonable because thatís what others are paying, but thatís thinking too.


Yes, there is lots of economic damage being done, but the only thing that matters is which way the market is going.  <edit>

I actually agree with this.  Flexibility is key in times like this if you trade (vs DCA).  The fact of the matter is, bear market rallies can last months.  Perhaps the market will recover to new highs without going lower (V) and this bear will be over quickly and perhaps the market will simply use this bear market rally as a means to trap the little guy.  No one knows.

When I watch The Big Short I'm reminded of just how long and far things can go in either direction and the emotions that go along with that, even for professionals.  Looking at previous bear markets on a chart also show exactly what has transpired before.  While it doesn't tell you what will happen now, it's worth a view.  Psychology is fascinating! 
« Last Edit: April 17, 2020, 09:53:07 AM by Blueberries »

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #83 on: April 17, 2020, 10:59:57 AM »
Gentlemen,

If you are going to trade the markets then you need to learn one of the unviolatable rules of survival - Trade what you SEE, not what you THINK.

Yes, there are a million good reasons why the market could and should go down. But it is not going down - it is going up. That is the simple fact. You do not argue with the market.

That is why I find it hilarious all the pontificating about the current state of the infection rate, the state of small businesses, unemployment rates, and uncle Ed's garage services.  People who think that reading any of these numbers will give them further insight into the direction of the markets are so daft they don't realise that they're the pasty. The market already knows all it all.. and it doesn't have the same opinion on them as you.

Shorters are getting their faces ripped off because their ego is arguing with the market.. and there is only ever going to be one winner in that particular matchup.

Small caps are limit up today. The V rally is very much on.

Sage advice @vand.  I appreciate your insights.

The US market is in my humble opinion completely, absolutely, utterly crazy. Not just a little. Weíre talking full-blown nutter.  I have no doubt that if a comet was racing towards earth, the US stock market would view it as a bullish sign. And the EMH crowd would insist that the imminent comet strike was priced in.  Now, upon reflection I have no real problem with crazy, so long as I think I can  make money. I just donít see it with a SP 5+495 trailing PE ratio around 21.

No thanks. Iíll go international. And as a bonus Iíll be diversifying some out of the US  dollar.

As for shorting, thatís just a good way to shoot your eye out.


kenmoremmm

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #84 on: May 05, 2020, 12:10:21 PM »
curious if the bears on here are revisiting the idea of shorting.

as more news comes in, my inclination is the market hasn't captured even the short-term reality that's coming. i know, efficient markets. smarter people than me. etc.

just taking a pulse of the short-crowd.

Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #85 on: May 05, 2020, 12:56:19 PM »
Closed long dated puts open about a year on MCK, T, and PTON, all for a small loss (the market was making it clear I had my thesis wrong and/or the longs are all crazy people that should not be challenged to a game of chicken).  Still have long dated puts open on DRI, LYFT, PLAY, UBER, RAD.  Those five are up about 29% versus capital at risk.

Also have long dated puts on VXX that are WAY underwater.  But is really a bullish play despite being a long put.

Added exposure to junior gold miners (GDXJ) yesterday in response to unprecedented Fed balance sheet expansion.

Otherwise, bullishly positioned.

bwall

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #86 on: May 05, 2020, 02:31:58 PM »
I'm still bearish and probably will be until the DJIA moves above it's 100 day moving average.

I'm selling front month, out-of-the-money covered calls when the stocks near their short term upper resistance levels. If the execute, then I'm happy b/c I've lightened my position and have more cash. If they don't execute, then even better, as I now have more cash available to buy in later.

I generate about $1000 to $1500 per month with this strategy. Not enough to live on, but as a hobby it's cheaper than, say, photography.

hodedofome

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #87 on: May 05, 2020, 08:33:21 PM »
Vand gets it.

I tinkered around with a few more shorts in oil and gas (including double short oil ETF). Did well on the ETF, didnít really make any money on the oil companies. Closed out that oil ETF late last week.

I am long and strong this market. All of you armchair economists who canít seem to understand what a $4 trillion stimulus can do for the economy obviously donít get it.

It also appears the more liberal and more intelligent the person Iím talking to, the more fearful they are of this virus and more bearish on the market. I donít know what to make of that, just something Iíve observed.

https://www.pragcap.com/what-the-hell-is-the-stock-market-doing/
« Last Edit: May 05, 2020, 08:35:11 PM by hodedofome »

ChpBstrd

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #88 on: May 05, 2020, 09:06:39 PM »
All of you armchair economists who canít seem to understand what a $4 trillion stimulus can do for the economy obviously donít get it.

$2T (not $4T) didn't go directly into the stock market, it went into bonds and loans, helicopter money to taxpayers, municipal bailouts, unemployment insurance, etc.



Yes, I understand this increases purchasing power and slightly lowers default/foreclosure risks and that's a bonus for the stock market. Probably thousands of households put their entire stimulus checks directly into the stock market. However, the S&P 500 alone increased its market cap by $2.72T between the end of March and the end of April. Did the fraction of $301B in "household payments" that was immediately invested into stocks cause this run-up in price?

https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_market_cap

Can you make the case that the April rally was anything more than a massive short squeeze? As in March-mid-May 2008 when the market went up 10%?

It also appears the more liberal and more intelligent the person Iím talking to, the more fearful they are of this virus and more bearish on the market. I donít know what to make of that, just something Iíve observed.

It's a factor of whether one considers the president competent or not. It may also be a factor of knowledge about the impact of past epidemics/pandemics like the Spanish flu. If someone thinks we are dealing with merely an extra flu season with the best "stable genius" president in modern history at the helm and no underlying damage to the economy other than the restrictions created by probably-liberal public health officials with their PhDs, then that someone is probably buying stocks hand over fist.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2020, 09:44:18 PM by ChpBstrd »

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #89 on: May 05, 2020, 09:27:09 PM »
Closed long dated puts open about a year on MCK, T, and PTON, all for a small loss (the market was making it clear I had my thesis wrong and/or the longs are all crazy people that should not be challenged to a game of chicken).  Still have long dated puts open on DRI, LYFT, PLAY, UBER, RAD.  Those five are up about 29% versus capital at risk.
Recognizing when losses are not according to plan, and selling, seems like an important trait for an investor (doubly so an active investor).  I'm curious about one of your long dated puts - "asking for a friend".

As of right now, I view Dave & Buster's ("PLAY") activity space / restaurant as unable to open until COVID-19 is no longer a problem.  Restaurants might do take out, and retail stores might provide curbside pick up... but people can't order Dave & Buster's basketball courts to go.

Can you talk about why you started the put on PLAY stock, and why you are holding it now instead of closing the position out?

jojoguy

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #90 on: May 06, 2020, 04:22:24 AM »
I am just kind of glancing through the thread and noticed the conversation about how crazy it was to open a restaurant or a fun activity business like Dave and Busters. I noticed a business that still does well during a rough economy are liquor stores. In fact, it seems like they do above average business during rough times like these because of people being stressed out and stuck at home.

Hargrove

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #91 on: May 06, 2020, 06:15:41 AM »
I am just kind of glancing through the thread and noticed the conversation about how crazy it was to open a restaurant or a fun activity business like Dave and Busters. I noticed a business that still does well during a rough economy are liquor stores. In fact, it seems like they do above average business during rough times like these because of people being stressed out and stuck at home.

People drink to celebrate a good time or have a better one. Where you nailed it is "stuck at home." If there's beer in the fridge, it's the being stuck at home that leads to more of it getting consumed. Limits on going out lead to increased stocking up, increased stocking up leads to "might as well," and that's not great with an unfathomable hike in unemployment and unemployment payments. Liquor sales are up 30-50% in my area. The margin in the business is awful, however. It also deals with a wide patchwork of state laws and, some argue, is about to get clobbered by steady marijuana legalization. Reduction in cocktail parties among the younger crowd, and "pregaming" (drinking 3 $1 nips before getting a water at the restaurant) have not been great signs for the industry either, in the longer term.

Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #92 on: May 06, 2020, 12:50:43 PM »
Closed long dated puts open about a year on MCK, T, and PTON, all for a small loss (the market was making it clear I had my thesis wrong and/or the longs are all crazy people that should not be challenged to a game of chicken).  Still have long dated puts open on DRI, LYFT, PLAY, UBER, RAD.  Those five are up about 29% versus capital at risk.
Recognizing when losses are not according to plan, and selling, seems like an important trait for an investor (doubly so an active investor).  I'm curious about one of your long dated puts - "asking for a friend".

As of right now, I view Dave & Buster's ("PLAY") activity space / restaurant as unable to open until COVID-19 is no longer a problem.  Restaurants might do take out, and retail stores might provide curbside pick up... but people can't order Dave & Buster's basketball courts to go.

Can you talk about why you started the put on PLAY stock, and why you are holding it now instead of closing the position out?

@MustacheAndaHalf

The put is a LONG put, e.g. I paid for the right to sell at a future date, at the strike price.  That is, I'm betting against PLAY and benefit if the stock price declines.  I think you have it right.  They are going to have a hard to time reopening with social distance enforced.  They were already heavily leveraged on a low margin business.  My research indicates they have tapped out their credit line, have stopped making lease payments on some locations, and have diluted share holders to raise cash.  I see more pain ahead and am holding to capture more of the decline in stock price.

I am betting against DRI (Olive Garden and similar properties) for similar reasons.  They are overly leveraged on a low margin business and have lost a ton of revenue.  People may come back to dining out slowly or not at all. Like PLAY, DRI is dependent on maintaining high volumes of customers on thin margins.  Social distancing and 25% capacity operating limitations break their model.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #93 on: May 07, 2020, 03:56:58 AM »
...
As of right now, I view Dave & Buster's ("PLAY") activity space / restaurant as unable to open until COVID-19 is no longer a problem.  Restaurants might do take out, and retail stores might provide curbside pick up... but people can't order Dave & Buster's basketball courts to go.

Can you talk about why you started the put on PLAY stock, and why you are holding it now instead of closing the position out?
@MustacheAndaHalf

The put is a LONG put, e.g. I paid for the right to sell at a future date, at the strike price.  That is, I'm betting against PLAY and benefit if the stock price declines.  I think you have it right.  They are going to have a hard to time reopening with social distance enforced.  They were already heavily leveraged on a low margin business.  My research indicates they have tapped out their credit line, have stopped making lease payments on some locations, and have diluted share holders to raise cash.  I see more pain ahead and am holding to capture more of the decline in stock price.

I am betting against DRI (Olive Garden and similar properties) for similar reasons.  They are overly leveraged on a low margin business and have lost a ton of revenue.  People may come back to dining out slowly or not at all. Like PLAY, DRI is dependent on maintaining high volumes of customers on thin margins.  Social distancing and 25% capacity operating limitations break their model.
Wow, Dave&Busters sold $100M worth of shares, and are/were at a $400M market cap.  Another story says their outflow is under $10M/week, so round that off to 3 months worth of costs.  So before, they had "x" months of costs, and issued stock so they have "x+3" months worth.  Sounds like they're going to do this again during August.  Morningstar shows a 2.3 price/book and 11.3 debt/equity.

Back near the bottom, I bought dozens of individual stocks... I guess I'll just reveal Dave&Buster's was one of the many.  It's the worst performer by far, one of the few losing stocks (-16%).  I just peeked at my notes and their debt/equity wasn't any better in March.  Those notes, which I haven't touched in over a month, also have a one word comment next to the stock:  "oops".  :)  I'd rather be short than long on "PLAY" stock, and it's better to sell losers and let winners run... so we'll see.


Regarding restaurants, the reopening guidelines seem out of touch with business reality.  During peak hours, restaurants will be limited to 25% capacity (by many different state's guidelines), which simply isn't profitable.  As those viewpoints collide, maybe the related stocks could take a hit (news articles about restaurants still closed, or restaurant owners public saying the guidelines only help them lose money).
https://www.winemag.com/2020/05/06/restaurants-reopen-capacity/

Although I don't own DRI, my public "An experiment" thread lists "DIN" (Dine Brands: Appleby's, I.H.O.P.) as one of my holdings.  I plan to wait for full recovery to profit off that stock, and don't expect it to do well any time soon.

Dare2Dream

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #94 on: May 08, 2020, 09:44:59 AM »
I'm still bearish and probably will be until the DJIA moves above it's 100 day moving average.

I'm selling front month, out-of-the-money covered calls when the stocks near their short term upper resistance levels. If the execute, then I'm happy b/c I've lightened my position and have more cash. If they don't execute, then even better, as I now have more cash available to buy in later.

I generate about $1000 to $1500 per month with this strategy. Not enough to live on, but as a hobby it's cheaper than, say, photography.

Hi,

You are selling OTM naked calls or call verticals?  I am not sure what selling OTM cover calls is?   Unless you are holding stock and selling the OTM calls against that.
How far OTM do you go usually?  Have you ever been run over buy one of these +1000 point rallies?
Thanks

bwall

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #95 on: May 08, 2020, 12:53:09 PM »
Covered call-- is when you own the underlying stock. If the call that you sell is 'called away', then your stock is converted to cash and put into your account and the stocks are transferred to the purchaser's account. It's low-risk as the most that you can 'lose' is that your stock position is converted to cash at the strike price.

I generally do this in individual stocks that I own, not ETF or such.

Also; timing is everything. I get in and out quickly, sometimes in the same day or next day for a 50% gain. It works for small gains, such as the ones I mentioned. I spend most time with no position (other than the long stock position I'm planning on holding anyway). When there's a monster rally and the stock is near it's upper resistance level, then I sell the covered call at a strike price about 10% out of the money. The next day or two, if the stock is flat or retreats, then I close out my position for the fat gain (in % terms). Worst case is that the stock continues to go up and, hey! I sold at an even higher price than it was trading at just a couple of days prior. I generally look to buy back in the next week below the strike price.

Key points: always front month, always a week or two before expiration, never longer dated, never around earnings.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #96 on: May 09, 2020, 04:16:43 AM »
...
As of right now, I view Dave & Buster's ("PLAY") activity space / restaurant as unable to open until COVID-19 is no longer a problem.  Restaurants might do take out, and retail stores might provide curbside pick up... but people can't order Dave & Buster's basketball courts to go.

Can you talk about why you started the put on PLAY stock, and why you are holding it now instead of closing the position out?
@MustacheAndaHalf

The put is a LONG put, e.g. I paid for the right to sell at a future date, at the strike price.  That is, I'm betting against PLAY and benefit if the stock price declines.  I think you have it right.  They are going to have a hard to time reopening with social distance enforced.  They were already heavily leveraged on a low margin business.  My research indicates they have tapped out their credit line, have stopped making lease payments on some locations, and have diluted share holders to raise cash.  I see more pain ahead and am holding to capture more of the decline in stock price.
Back near the bottom, I bought dozens of individual stocks... I guess I'll just reveal Dave&Buster's was one of the many.  It's the worst performer by far, one of the few losing stocks (-16%).  I just peeked at my notes and their debt/equity wasn't any better in March.  Those notes, which I haven't touched in over a month, also have a one word comment next to the stock:  "oops".  :)  I'd rather be short than long on "PLAY" stock, and it's better to sell losers and let winners run... so we'll see.
Markets could pay off short and long positions.  I've decided to stick with Dave & Busters stock ("PLAY") owing to the long-term trade off between bankruptcy risk and possible gains.  If it avoids bankruptcy, I would guess the stock triples or quadruples during a recovery.

I hope anyone shorting keeps careful track of drug and vaccine trials.  Markets could overreact positively to a vaccine announcement, and remain irrational long enough for one or more vaccine(s) to be deployed.

effigy98

  • Bristles
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  • Posts: 431
Re: Who's Shorting?
« Reply #97 on: May 31, 2020, 05:24:55 PM »
Gambled on shorts and puts over last couple months and lost most of the time. Don't fight the fed. Fundementals and record unemployed don't matter anymore. Core golden butterfly like positions only consistent gaining portfolio for me with lowest drawdowns.

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« Last Edit: May 31, 2020, 05:27:15 PM by effigy98 »