Author Topic: Which day/hour will Fed announce rate hike?  (Read 1228 times)

jnw

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Which day/hour will Fed announce rate hike?
« on: March 12, 2022, 07:32:40 PM »
All I know is it is next week and people expect a 0.25% increase.  What day is it and at what time will the announcement be?  And where do I watch a live stream of this?   Playing around with some swing trading for fun here and there (small amounts).

I'd like to see how real time stock market data changes right after the announcement.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2022, 07:37:12 PM by JenniferW »

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Which day/hour will Fed announce rate hike?
« Reply #1 on: March 12, 2022, 11:40:41 PM »
The Fed (FOMC) meets Mar 15-16, but I don't think the meetings are fixed length.

The Fed sets the loans for huge banks to borrow from the Fed directly, and those rates tend to make their way into treasury yields and even mortgage rates.  Treasury yields have been very volatile recently, with stock investors panic driving down yields until the panic ends.  That could happen again this week.

But if the stock & bond markets are calm leading up to the Fed announcement, I expect the rate hike to cause bond yields to drop very slightly!  The huge majority expect a 0.25% rate hike (Fed Chair Powell has even said he will suggest 0.25%).  But given the Fed acting too slowly and recent inflation, some think a 0.50% rate hike is possible.  If you average those views, times the probability, you might have 0.26% average priced into the market.  So if the Fed says 0.25%, the market only has to fall from 0.26% to 0.25% as the higher rate investors are shown to be wrong.  If the market is finally calm (a big "if"), that's why I would expect a 0.25% rate hike to cause a small drop in yields.

If treasury yields suddenly jump 0.25%, that would represent a very inefficient bond market.  I would probably invest even more in inverse bond yields to take advantage of it, rather than just waiting for the longer-term trend of rising bond yields.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2022, 05:37:29 AM by MustacheAndaHalf »

August26th

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Re: Which day/hour will Fed announce rate hike?
« Reply #2 on: March 14, 2022, 01:19:57 PM »
The Fed announcement will be on March 16th, typically 2 pm EST.

jnw

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Re: Which day/hour will Fed announce rate hike?
« Reply #3 on: March 14, 2022, 01:23:31 PM »
The Fed announcement will be on March 16th, typically 2 pm EST.

Thank you, will it be available in a live stream on youtube?

jnw

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Re: Which day/hour will Fed announce rate hike?
« Reply #4 on: March 14, 2022, 01:24:24 PM »
The market has 0.25% priced in, but inflation + slow Fed action probably has some investors still expecting 0.50%.  If you average those views, you might get 0.26%.  If the Fed then reveals a 0.25% rate hike, the market drops from 0.26% priced in to 0.25% certainty.. so after a rate hike, bond yields could drop!

Thanks for all the info :)

jnw

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Re: Which day/hour will Fed announce rate hike?
« Reply #5 on: March 16, 2022, 11:03:27 AM »
I guess this is where the rate hike will be announced live?  From the following live stream at the Federal Reserve.  It's a press conference at 2:30 PM  EST.  I don't know if they will announce the rate at this live event, or if this live event is to take questions after they have already announced it:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/live-broadcast.htm


jnw

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Re: Which day/hour will Fed announce rate hike?
« Reply #6 on: March 16, 2022, 12:06:30 PM »
Okay so I see the live news coming in after 2PM EST on TD Ameritrade (realtime news/data).   The first news came it at 21 seconds after 2PM.