So you guys think he's just a moron? Or he's dishonest and he's saying this, while knowing it's false, in order to trick people into thinking he knows what he's talking about? These seem like implausible explanations.
I think he's making some kind of understandable error. Maybe, since he's good at picking individual stocks, and he doesn't see any good bets right now, he (mistakenly) draws the conclusion that the market is in poor shape. That seems like an understandable error, although to be honest it still seems a little stupid to me. It would be satisfying to me if we could see a real rationale for him to say these sorts of things that do not involve calling him stupid or a liar, even if the rationale is ultimately in error.
I don’t know much about the author, but here is a benefit of the doubt analysis
Stocks are stocks, over the 30- 50 year time horizon most people on this forum are investing some buys will be low, some will be high, and most somewhere in between. Right now stocks seem pricy, oh well. There is rarely cause for alarm in long term stock investing. Smart asset allocation, low expenses and stick with it. There will always be talking heads screaming the sky is falling and sometimes it will. Singer, however, seems more concerned about bonds.
Many cannot stomach 100% equity portfolios and opt for a percentage to be in “safer” assets. Generally, safer means less potential capital loss in exchange for lower returns and hopefully not highly correlated to their equity position. I think the general tone of the article is that bonds have filled this role very well over the past 40+ years. This may not be as true over the next 10+ years. Frankly this isn’t a huge problem for someone who is 100 or 75 percent equity invested. I worry about boomers, like my parents, who in their 60’s are being told by financial planners that they should be looking at 50-70 percent bond allocation, to be “safe”. This is at a time when bonds are very expensive. CD ladders are only 25 or 50 basis points off of 10 year treasury yields. While CDs have virtually zero capital loss potential (ignoring inflation), bonds with such low yield have a very high potential for at least some capital loss over the next decade.
A bond market decline may or may not negatively impact equities, but the equities will eventually rebound as long as earnings grow (hint: over time they always will). Buy a 10 year treasury at 1.5% yield, inflation eventually picks up to 2-3 percent and you’re taking a big capital loss that will never recover.
