How much will your QSEHRA kick in? Are these premium numbers before or after the reimbursement from your employer? Based on the numbers you state, the difference in annual premiums is $1,224 and the difference in deductibles is $2,250. Before considering HSA contributions, you'll be $1,224 better off with the cheaper plan as long as you need less than $6,300 worth of medical care in the year. If you need more than that, the gap narrows and eventually favors the HDHP.
The HSA contributions have a tax benefit that varies depending on your tax bracket. If, for example, you max out a $3,600 individual HSA contribution and are in the 12% tax bracket, you save $432 on your taxes. That's enough to narrow the $1,224 gap down to $792 in a good year, and also adds $432 to the HDHP's advantage in a bad year. If you're in a higher tax bracket, say 22%, you now save $792 on your federal taxes plus whatever you would save on your state taxes. That still doesn't completely eliminate the difference in premiums, but it comes close enough that I might be inclined to pay a few extra dollars for a lower deductible.
