Author Topic: where to invest during a civil war?  (Read 2545 times)

kenmoremmm

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where to invest during a civil war?
« on: October 01, 2019, 03:36:25 PM »
just curious.

Sailor Sam

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2019, 04:04:31 PM »
War in your own country? I'm guessing emergency supplies, community, and cleverness.

maizefolk

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2019, 04:12:40 PM »
International stocks and bonds. ... and airline tickets.

bacchi

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2019, 05:25:42 PM »
International stocks and bonds. ... and airline tickets.

There's a trade called the "Brazilian Put." You use extreme leverage, like the S&P future, with everything you have but $1500. You use the $1500 for plane tickets to Brazil.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2019, 06:10:39 PM »
Say what?

Your “investments” would be food, water, secure shelter. If you’re really looking for great alpha, a passport and airline tickets. 

Travis

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2019, 07:16:45 PM »
Personal Capital emailed me last night and suggested I schedule a consultation because "impeachment."

::eye roll::

SwordGuy

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2019, 07:39:11 PM »
Advice is geared towards people who live in a country that might go into a civil war.

This would be when gold is a truly useful investment -- for bribes and purchasing transportation via the small package trade. 

Non-perishable food and water purification tablets for roughing it until a place of safety is reached.   Good hiking clothing and shoes.  A boat in some border areas.    Weapons, ammo, and the training and skill to use them, just in case.

Overseas companies that do not depend upon trade with your country, with proof of ownership not held by companies that are based in your country.   


Travis

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2019, 07:49:08 PM »
Advice is geared towards people who live in a country that might go into a civil war.

This would be when gold is a truly useful investment -- for bribes and purchasing transportation via the small package trade. 

Non-perishable food and water purification tablets for roughing it until a place of safety is reached.   Good hiking clothing and shoes.  A boat in some border areas.    Weapons, ammo, and the training and skill to use them, just in case.

Overseas companies that do not depend upon trade with your country, with proof of ownership not held by companies that are based in your country.

If you're not a refugee and in a place of relative safety, have the goods/supplies (food, toiletries) on hand to participate in whatever black market pops up. It'll be the only economy that matters within the conflict area.

kenmoremmm

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2019, 09:09:51 PM »

YttriumNitrate

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2019, 10:17:50 PM »
Two words: Dual citizenship.

If tens of millions of people are trying to get out of Dodge, I'd want there to be someplace that has to let me in. It looks like you can get Australian citizenship by investing around a million there.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2019, 12:37:11 AM »
my (OP) post was in slight jest, but related to this:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-civil-war-tweet-civil-war-2-is-trending-on-twitter-after-trump-suggested-what-might-occur-if-removed-from-office/

i'm talking about civil war in the US.
It's possible, just possible, that Trump is a bit hysterical.

Trump will not be removed from office, and if he were he'd be re-elected for his second term a few months later.

You're not going to see civil war in the US in the near future. If the US were to fall over, the most likely scenario is a federal govt shutdown that goes on so long the states just give up on the federal government and take over its revenue and spending obligations "temporarily, for the duration of the crisis" which never ends. The US like the SU is most likely to end with a whimper, not a bang.

marty998

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2019, 03:54:29 AM »
Two words: Dual citizenship.

If tens of millions of people are trying to get out of Dodge, I'd want there to be someplace that has to let me in. It looks like you can get Australian citizenship by investing around a million there.

AUD 5 million is the requirement to get one of those Visas. We hand them out like confetti to Chinese billionaires. I thought it was impossible to get money out of China but somehow they've managed to buy up half the real estate on the East Coast.

Chris Pascale

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2019, 11:35:15 AM »
This reminds me of the "articles" I see that say why people are getting out of cash. When I see them, I think who the hell has cash?

BicycleB

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2019, 12:09:55 PM »
This reminds me of the "articles" I see that say why people are getting out of cash. When I see them, I think who the hell has cash?

I have $18 cash in my wallet. Well prepared for civil war!

(flicks dust off shoulder)

PS. I'm guessing my house and the electronic records of my mutual funds will both survive whatever civil war occurs, should we enter a non-Schuant timeline. But you never know. Anyway, my goal in that event would just be to find out what happens...because by then I'd have survived, probably after helping some neighbors survive as well.

Fwiw, I think that if you are prepared for Standard Disasters (fires, floods, hurricanes, etc) and FIRE, you are already prepared for Civil War. Your emergency plan probably includes enough cash, food, water on hand to get through a couple of weeks with your city's supply lines cut/downed, or at least a few days. You have friends among your neighbors, some variety of DIY Mustache skills, the ability to plan, and the ability to be resilent. You have some diversification among your assets; a civil war might destroy some of them, but probably will raise the value of others. You will survive.
« Last Edit: October 02, 2019, 12:30:34 PM by BicycleB »

Blonde Lawyer

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2019, 02:11:23 PM »
my (OP) post was in slight jest, but related to this:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-civil-war-tweet-civil-war-2-is-trending-on-twitter-after-trump-suggested-what-might-occur-if-removed-from-office/

i'm talking about civil war in the US.
It's possible, just possible, that Trump is a bit hysterical.

Trump will not be removed from office, and if he were he'd be re-elected for his second term a few months later.

You're not going to see civil war in the US in the near future. If the US were to fall over, the most likely scenario is a federal govt shutdown that goes on so long the states just give up on the federal government and take over its revenue and spending obligations "temporarily, for the duration of the crisis" which never ends. The US like the SU is most likely to end with a whimper, not a bang.

Curious, if one was removed from office via impeachment, could that person run again? I'm not sure of the legalities of that.

Scandium

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #15 on: October 02, 2019, 02:30:46 PM »
depends if you're on the winning or loosing side.

maizefolk

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #16 on: October 02, 2019, 02:42:53 PM »
depends if you're on the winning or loosing side.

All things being equal I'd prefer to the on the out-side.

GuitarStv

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #17 on: October 02, 2019, 03:07:42 PM »
I mean, as long as they keep the war civil there shouldn't be much to worry about.  It's impolite to tank other people's investments.


:P

seattlecyclone

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #18 on: October 02, 2019, 04:16:26 PM »
my (OP) post was in slight jest, but related to this:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-civil-war-tweet-civil-war-2-is-trending-on-twitter-after-trump-suggested-what-might-occur-if-removed-from-office/

i'm talking about civil war in the US.
It's possible, just possible, that Trump is a bit hysterical.

Trump will not be removed from office, and if he were he'd be re-elected for his second term a few months later.

You're not going to see civil war in the US in the near future. If the US were to fall over, the most likely scenario is a federal govt shutdown that goes on so long the states just give up on the federal government and take over its revenue and spending obligations "temporarily, for the duration of the crisis" which never ends. The US like the SU is most likely to end with a whimper, not a bang.

Curious, if one was removed from office via impeachment, could that person run again? I'm not sure of the legalities of that.

It's up to the Senate. Should they find someone guilty in an impeachment trial, the Constitution permits them to remove the person from office and/or prohibit them from holding office again. It also explicitly states that the officeholder may be later charged under the normal criminal justice process.

Quote from: US Constitution Article I Section 3
The Senate shall have the sole Power to try all Impeachments. When sitting for that Purpose, they shall be on Oath or Affirmation. When the President of the United States is tried, the Chief Justice shall preside: And no Person shall be convicted without the Concurrence of two thirds of the Members present.

Judgment in Cases of Impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States: but the Party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment, according to Law.

Malum Prohibitum

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #19 on: October 02, 2019, 04:19:05 PM »
I mean, as long as they keep the war civil there shouldn't be much to worry about.  It's impolite to tank other people's investments.


:P
. LOL!

Malum Prohibitum

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #20 on: October 02, 2019, 04:21:26 PM »
There was a federal judge who was impeached.  The Senate removed him.  He then ran for Congress and was elected.  He stayed in office for two decades.

True story.

Alcee Hastings.  https://constitutionallawreporter.com/2017/06/13/alcee-hastings-impeachment/


Toothpick

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #21 on: October 02, 2019, 04:32:04 PM »
I mean, as long as they keep the war civil there shouldn't be much to worry about.  It's impolite to tank other people's investments.
:P

Spoken like a true Canadian :)

Toothpick

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #22 on: October 02, 2019, 04:44:05 PM »
Let's see.

A secret underground bunker, capable of withstanding a direct nuclear hit, filled with five years of supplies is just kind of the basics at that point.  Preferably in a rural area, most of the rioting and random bomb drops will be in the cities. 

Or just keep living your life, cause this is gonna pass soon enough :).

Toothpick

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #23 on: October 02, 2019, 04:49:04 PM »
This reminds me of the "articles" I see that say why people are getting out of cash. When I see them, I think who the hell has cash?

Warren Buffett has a nice pile.

Having cash for business opportunities is a good idea.  To me, not having cash is not being prepared for eventual opportunity.  I always, always have cash (mostly sitting in a MMF, plus some in actual physical cash).

seattlecyclone

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #24 on: October 02, 2019, 04:59:46 PM »
depends if you're on the winning or loosing side.

All things being equal I'd prefer to the on the out-side.

Agreed. However the battle lines might be drawn for a hypothetical war, there are surely plenty of folks on both sides who have investments in the stock markets. Folks who were sufficiently involved in the losing side of the war could very plausibly have some of these assets seized by the winning side after all is said and done. If you don't make many waves either way I'd guess you probably have a better bet of coming through with your shares intact. Whether those shares retain any significant fraction of their former value in a wartorn country is a separate question.

Travis

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #25 on: October 02, 2019, 05:30:37 PM »
Let's see.

A secret underground bunker, capable of withstanding a direct nuclear hit, filled with five years of supplies is just kind of the basics at that point.  Preferably in a rural area, most of the rioting and random bomb drops will be in the cities. 

Or just keep living your life, cause this is gonna pass soon enough :).

So...where we keep the nuclear missiles.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #26 on: October 02, 2019, 05:37:03 PM »
There was a federal judge who was impeached.  The Senate removed him.  He then ran for Congress and was elected.  He stayed in office for two decades.

True story.

Alcee Hastings.  https://constitutionallawreporter.com/2017/06/13/alcee-hastings-impeachment/
I guess he figured he'd seek an office where bribery is permitted, indeed mandatory :)

mspym

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #27 on: October 02, 2019, 06:17:48 PM »
Two words: Dual citizenship.

If tens of millions of people are trying to get out of Dodge, I'd want there to be someplace that has to let me in. It looks like you can get Australian citizenship by investing around a million there.

AUD 5 million is the requirement to get one of those Visas. We hand them out like confetti to Chinese billionaires. I thought it was impossible to get money out of China but somehow they've managed to buy up half the real estate on the East Coast.
That is what all the blockchain farms are for...laundering money and getting it out of restricted areas

harvestbook

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #28 on: October 02, 2019, 06:18:10 PM »
You really only need enough stuff to last a few weeks, and be in the right place,  because after The Great Dying, resources will be rather plentiful.

norajean

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #29 on: October 02, 2019, 06:31:48 PM »
I guess local munitions suppliers.

Villanelle

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #30 on: October 02, 2019, 06:38:10 PM »
There's legal ambiguity about whether one could run again.  It's pretty clear that, at a minimum, Congress can vote to bar the person from office.    (I asked this question earlier today, too, based on this thread!)

"The Constitution states that a judgment of impeachment results in "removal from office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any office of honor, trust or profit under the United States." Thus, on its face, the Constitution appears to stipulate that if a person is impeached by the House, convicted by the Senate and removed from office, he also can be disqualified from holding office in the future.
But some legal scholars have argued that the Senate must vote separately on (1) removal from office and (2) disqualification from holding future office. Looking at historical precedent, the Senate has at least twice voted to remove federal judges, and then separately voted on whether to disqualify the judges from holding office in the future. And while a two-thirds vote of the Senate is constitutionally required for removal, the Senate has used a lower simple-majority vote standard in prior cases of disqualification.
So, if the Senate did vote to convict and remove the President, it likely would also vote separately on whether to bar him from holding office again in the future.

 www.cnn.com/2019/10/01/opinions/your-impeachment-questions-answered-elie-honig/index.html

arebelspy

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Re: where to invest during a civil war?
« Reply #31 on: October 03, 2019, 08:16:53 AM »
my (OP) post was in slight jest, but related to this:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-civil-war-tweet-civil-war-2-is-trending-on-twitter-after-trump-suggested-what-might-occur-if-removed-from-office/

i'm talking about civil war in the US.

MOD NOTE: Doesn't seem like you want an investing topic, but a political one.

Keep it to the off topic subforum, please.

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