Trying to predict commodity prices is a fool's errand, particularly one as politically intertwined as oil, which has roller coastered for a century. It appears that the middle eastern component of OPEC, particularly Saudi Arabia and probably with some encouragement from the West, wants to squeeze economically Russia for Ukraine crimes. This formula (economic squeeze) worked well in the Reagan years to break up the USSR. Russia and Venezuela are absolutely dying at these prices because their economies are a mess (not because their oil is expensive to extract, although the heavy Venezuelan crude is more costly to produce).
All the shale oil suppression talk is nonsense because 1) shale oil operations have a wide range of costs from low to high and quite a bit will remain in operation even at lower prices, and 2) short term low prices will choke off some shale oil but it bounces back immediately when prices rise. Shale oil production is strictly a drilling exercise (no facilities costs) and rigs are cheap land-based units with relatively short rental terms. If economics are poor, one stops drilling. As prices rise, the spigot can be turned right back on again pretty quickly.
The companies getting hurt by low prices are those with large, long-term capital projects (huge facilities investments like deepwater platforms or LNG) which were developed based on higher price assumptions. Those same giant companies can weather a 3-5 year downturn, and if they are integrated, offset upstream profit reductions with refining windfalls. If they are clever, those large companies will snap up any weakened shale oil producers on this dip and gain long-term control of more acreage.
Where are prices going? Well, they will certainly hit $60/bbl which feels to me like a reasonable floor. The absolute floor is probably closer to $45/bbl but that would take something like an OPEC production increase. How long will this last? I'm betting not more than a year as there is no sound economic reason for the crash (e.g. no global collapse in demand and no gush of supply). This feels like the big dip of 1999. Watch for some interesting mergers!