Author Topic: Where do you keep your FI stash?  (Read 23087 times)

mechanic baird

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 109
Where do you keep your FI stash?
« on: July 05, 2012, 10:32:37 AM »
Just curious to see where folks here keep the FI stash? With rates so low on CDs, uncertainty in the market, it's probably a tough universal issue for everyone..

Anyway, I will start.
Both of our 401Ks/Rollover IRAs are in diverse funds with a mix of corp bonds, mid term bonds and stock funds. mostly with Vanguard. That's about 75% of our stash.

I also have 25% of funds with brokerage accounts that I trade infrequently. But I buy a mix of blue chip dividend paying stocks, high yield ETFs,  high tech stocks,  and corp bonds. For this 25%, I am trying the "income" + "growth" approach. For the income, don't care for the up and downs in value, but I focus on the dividend checks and reinvest that.. For "growth", I go with high tech. Currently, this 25% of my funds pay about 6% in dividend. And this pie of stash has greatly out-performed my Vanguard share. Mostly because I have some Apple/Google/Amazon stocks I bought a while ago..Plus some high yield ETFs.  But I also feel that I am playing with fire.
« Last Edit: July 05, 2012, 10:35:43 AM by mechanic baird »

arebelspy

  • Administrator
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *****
  • Posts: 28444
  • Age: -997
  • Location: Seattle, WA
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #1 on: July 05, 2012, 01:18:57 PM »
Tulip bulbs.

The cycle has been down for about 700 years or thereabouts, so I think they're due to jump any day now.
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

JohnGalt

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 484
  • Age: 39
  • Location: TX
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #2 on: July 05, 2012, 01:25:42 PM »
Currently - all of my assets are tied up in 401k (options suck, but it's in a Permanent Portofolioish set up), IRA (dividend blue chips), and real estate (current residence that I will either sell or lease when I go back to renting next year). 

tannybrown

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 118
  • Age: 43
  • Location: South Scottsdale, AZ
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #3 on: July 05, 2012, 01:35:00 PM »
Tulip bulbs.

The cycle has been down for about 700 years or thereabouts, so I think they're due to jump any day now.

Watch for the head and shoulders dip, be flush with cash, and act quickly. 

gooki

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2917
  • Location: NZ
    • My FIRE journal
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #4 on: July 06, 2012, 04:29:36 AM »
50% in passive mixed fund (index shares, bonds, term deposits)
25% in company shares
25% in cash earning 4%

mechanic baird

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 109
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #5 on: July 06, 2012, 10:44:41 AM »
50% in passive mixed fund (index shares, bonds, term deposits)
25% in company shares
25% in cash earning 4%

Where do you get 4% in cash? My savings account pays 0.5%! 

arebelspy

  • Administrator
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *****
  • Posts: 28444
  • Age: -997
  • Location: Seattle, WA
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #6 on: July 06, 2012, 10:53:37 AM »
25% in cash earning 4%

Details?

That sort of thing is nice to share.

Or is it one of those many niche promotion with so many caveats and addendums (where you need to do 10 transactions/month and have this much assets and all that) it makes it not worthwhile for most people (permanent portfolioites, gooki, and smedley aside)?
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

grantmeaname

  • CM*MW 2023 Attendees
  • Walrus Stache
  • *
  • Posts: 5960
  • Age: 31
  • Location: Middle West
  • Cast me away from yesterday's things
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #7 on: July 06, 2012, 10:54:23 AM »
Where do you get 4% in cash?
New Zealand.

arebelspy

  • Administrator
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *****
  • Posts: 28444
  • Age: -997
  • Location: Seattle, WA
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #8 on: July 06, 2012, 11:06:23 AM »
Where do you get 4% in cash?
New Zealand.

Hah.  Touche.

I was right about it being a niche promotion.  You have to live in New Zealand!
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

Mr Mark

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1229
  • Location: Planet Earth
  • Achieved Financial Independence summer 2014. RE'18
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #9 on: July 06, 2012, 01:45:04 PM »
Tulip bulbs.

The cycle has been down for about 700 years or thereabouts, so I think they're due to jump any day now.

Watch for the head and shoulders dip, be flush with cash, and act quickly.

Silver coin. Just in case.

Kriegsspiel

  • Guest
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #10 on: July 07, 2012, 10:26:52 AM »
Right now my AA looks like this:

Stocks 68.8 (54.5% in taxable accounts, 14.3% in the Roth)
Bonds 3.9% (all in the Roth)
Cash 27.2% (moving this into the stocks, I'm planning on having about 5% in cash)

I'm in the process of selling off my stocks in my Roth account, and moving that money into the bond funds.  I'm also selling off my individual stocks and putting the proceeds into VTSAX for now, eventually into the REIT fund also.

Jamesqf

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4038
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #11 on: July 07, 2012, 12:26:14 PM »
I was right about it being a niche promotion.  You have to live in New Zealand!

Humm... Do you have to live in New Zealand, or just have a bank account there?

gooki

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2917
  • Location: NZ
    • My FIRE journal
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #12 on: July 07, 2012, 02:29:48 PM »
Just a bank account. Be aware though currency fluctuations can wipe away that 4% gain in a heart beat, but the opposite is also true, one could easily realize a 10%+ gain with timing the market (trying to time the market is essentially gambling and not recommended).

If your happy to lock your money up for longer we have 5 year CDs paying up to 6.5% per annum.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2012, 02:32:20 PM by gooki »

MooreBonds

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 193
  • Age: 47
  • Location: St. Louis, MO
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #13 on: July 07, 2012, 03:13:42 PM »
Some I was lucky enough to put into I-bonds back in 2000/2001, with an average of 3.3% + CPI. Other than that, have approximately an equal amount spread out in my portfolio among some preferred stocks (mostly REITs of one form or another) and some various domestic /foreign ETFs.

Used to have about 5% of net worth in Muni ETFs, but pared that down to just 3 ETF holdings about 1 1/2 years ago, because most use leverage, and "rates can't possibly go any farther down...and when ST rates start to rise, the leveraged ETFs will get killed when they have to slash their dividend payouts".

Lesson learned about asset allocation! ;)

 

mechanic baird

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 109
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #14 on: July 12, 2012, 03:03:54 PM »
Tulip bulbs.

The cycle has been down for about 700 years or thereabouts, so I think they're due to jump any day now.

I was scratching my head when I first saw this.. Finally, I got it and had to come back and give a comment.
It's pretty hilarious man! but if you look a bit deeper, aren't we in the same tulip situation right now? Back in 1600's, they inflated the tulip price so much.. the bubble busted.. Now, we are pulling "wealth" out of the thin air by printing so much money and borrowing so much debt.. I ain't smart in this area, but it doesn't smell good out there..

grantmeaname

  • CM*MW 2023 Attendees
  • Walrus Stache
  • *
  • Posts: 5960
  • Age: 31
  • Location: Middle West
  • Cast me away from yesterday's things
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #15 on: July 12, 2012, 03:09:28 PM »
Tulip bulbs aren't actually worth anything. They don't actually do anything of economic significance. The tulip bubble inflated due to greater-fool logic. We do have problems today, but they're not just history repeating itself (as you note: there's liquidity, inflationary concerns, and stagnation of actual economic production to wonder about).

tooqk4u22

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2832
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #16 on: July 12, 2012, 03:12:46 PM »
Tulip bulbs aren't actually worth anything. They don't actually do anything of economic significance. The tulip bubble inflated due to greater-fool logic. We do have problems today, but they're not just history repeating itself (as you note: there's liquidity, inflationary concerns, and stagnation of actual economic production to wonder about).

Funny you could say the exact same thing about those little pieces of green paper that we like to carry around (Note: people in other countries may prefer different colored paper).

grantmeaname

  • CM*MW 2023 Attendees
  • Walrus Stache
  • *
  • Posts: 5960
  • Age: 31
  • Location: Middle West
  • Cast me away from yesterday's things
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #17 on: July 12, 2012, 03:13:36 PM »
Paper money doesn't do anything of economic significance?

tooqk4u22

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2832
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #18 on: July 12, 2012, 03:20:55 PM »
Actually no, the paper doesn't.  It is faith and trust in the economic system that gives it significance, but the paper itself is worthless and because it can be printed (US)/deflated/inflated/manipulated (China) it can be lost (doesn't mean it will be) and maybe the currency of choice becomes tulips/gold/dirt (ever see Waterworld).

The US is currently able to print more and more dollars because of the greater fool theory.


arebelspy

  • Administrator
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *****
  • Posts: 28444
  • Age: -997
  • Location: Seattle, WA
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #19 on: July 12, 2012, 08:18:16 PM »
Tulip bulbs.

The cycle has been down for about 700 years or thereabouts, so I think they're due to jump any day now.

I was scratching my head when I first saw this.. Finally, I got it and had to come back and give a comment.
It's pretty hilarious man! but if you look a bit deeper, aren't we in the same tulip situation right now? Back in 1600's, they inflated the tulip price so much.. the bubble busted.. Now, we are pulling "wealth" out of the thin air by printing so much money and borrowing so much debt.. I ain't smart in this area, but it doesn't smell good out there..

Heh, sorry for the unexplained allusion.  For anyone else wondering why we're chatting about flowers, it's a fascinating and hilarious story.

Simple explanation:
http://www.damninteresting.com/the-dutch-tulip-bubble-of-1637/

More detail:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

Mr Mark

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1229
  • Location: Planet Earth
  • Achieved Financial Independence summer 2014. RE'18
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #20 on: July 12, 2012, 11:33:07 PM »
Actually no, the paper doesn't.  It is faith and trust in the economic system that gives it significance, but the paper itself is worthless and because it can be printed (US)/deflated/inflated/manipulated (China) it can be lost (doesn't mean it will be) and maybe the currency of choice becomes tulips/gold/dirt (ever see Waterworld).

The US is currently able to print more and more dollars because of the greater fool theory.

The greater fool theory would only apply to gold. I can invest dollars and get a return.

The june 30th edition of the economist had a nice piece, explaining how circumstances have aligned so that USA and UK can exchange low yielding IOUs for real stuff made by foreigners!  Why the heck would you not want to print it?  [Please don't go off about hyperinflation].


grantmeaname

  • CM*MW 2023 Attendees
  • Walrus Stache
  • *
  • Posts: 5960
  • Age: 31
  • Location: Middle West
  • Cast me away from yesterday's things
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #21 on: July 13, 2012, 06:15:05 AM »
Actually no, the paper doesn't.  It is faith and trust in the economic system that gives it significance, but the paper itself is worthless and because it can be printed (US)/deflated/inflated/manipulated (China) it can be lost (doesn't mean it will be) and maybe the currency of choice becomes tulips/gold/dirt (ever see Waterworld).

The US is currently able to print more and more dollars because of the greater fool theory.
The US is currently able to print more and more dollars because of faith and trust in the government. Fiat currencies aren't based on having someone dumber come along to sell treasuries to, they're based on a perception that the government won't default on its debt.

tooqk4u22

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2832
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #22 on: July 13, 2012, 12:58:44 PM »
The greater fool theory would only apply to gold. I can invest dollars and get a return.

The june 30th edition of the economist had a nice piece, explaining how circumstances have aligned so that USA and UK can exchange low yielding IOUs for real stuff made by foreigners!  Why the heck would you not want to print it?  [Please don't go off about hyperinflation].

Yes.  But technically I can exchange gold for dollars as well, which can then be invested for a return - it is no different.  I get why the printing presses are on but there can be good and bad consequences - and the govt is usually late to figure it out.

[The US is currently able to print more and more dollars because of faith and trust in the government. Fiat currencies aren't based on having someone dumber come along to sell treasuries to, they're based on a perception that the government won't default on its debt.

Its semantics, we are saying the same thing but trust can be broken.

Jamesqf

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4038
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #23 on: July 13, 2012, 02:19:23 PM »
The US is currently able to print more and more dollars because of faith and trust in the government.

But if one keeps an eye on opinion polls, one sees that trust in the US government (at least by Americans) is steadily declining.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8433
  • Age: 47
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #24 on: July 13, 2012, 02:28:23 PM »
I would argue that tulip bulbs do the exact same thing as gold, or green paper, or diamonds.  They each have negligible value related to what they might produce, but mostly they are a store of value.  You can store your wealth in tulip bulbs, or piles of gold, or any other commodity, because those things have a price.  When more people desire that asset, they bid up the price and your wealth grows.

I don't see how the tulip bubble is ANY different from the gold bubble, in terms of fundamental mechanism.

there's liquidity, inflationary concerns, and stagnation of actual economic production to wonder about).

I'm sure there were some very smart tulip traders suggesting that the price of tulips was about climate conditions, the introduction of new fertilizers or breeding techniques, and expansion into new markets.

Similarly, the value of the US dollar is a store of wealth influenced by all kinds of factors, but ultimately controlled solely by what people are willing to pay for it.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2012, 02:34:17 PM by sol »

Mr Mark

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1229
  • Location: Planet Earth
  • Achieved Financial Independence summer 2014. RE'18
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #25 on: July 14, 2012, 08:58:09 AM »
The greater fool theory would only apply to gold. I can invest dollars and get a return.

The june 30th edition of the economist had a nice piece, explaining how circumstances have aligned so that USA and UK can exchange low yielding IOUs for real stuff made by foreigners!  Why the heck would you not want to print it?  [Please don't go off about hyperinflation].

Yes.  But technically I can exchange gold for dollars as well, which can then be invested for a return - it is no different.  I get why the printing presses are on but there can be good and bad consequences - and the govt is usually late to figure it out.

[The US is currently able to print more and more dollars because of faith and trust in the government. Fiat currencies aren't based on having someone dumber come along to sell treasuries to, they're based on a perception that the government won't default on its debt.

Its semantics, we are saying the same thing but trust can be broken.

No, no, no. If indeed you sell the gold for dollars in order to invest you don't have gold, you have dollars. That's why the tulips are like gold, except gold has a much longer tradition of demand or perceived value, doesn't rot, etc.

The risk of us treasury not repaying is (idiot congress excepted) low, because they could if required print the money.

The market is right now putting a premium on short term preservation of capital, rather than yield. Hence demand for us treasuries and gold.

smedleyb

  • Guest
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #26 on: July 15, 2012, 07:23:24 PM »
Over a long enough timeline, the survival rate of all fiat currencies drops to zero.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8433
  • Age: 47
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #27 on: July 15, 2012, 09:41:08 PM »
Over a long enough timeline, the survival rate of all fiat currencies drops to zero.

Over a much shorter timeline, the survival rate of all human beings drops to zero.  I'll take my chances.

Will

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 798
  • Location: Vancouver, WA
  • What the deuce?!?!?
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #28 on: July 15, 2012, 10:15:57 PM »
Why does it seem like almost all of the topics in this forum end up off-topic?

arebelspy

  • Administrator
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *****
  • Posts: 28444
  • Age: -997
  • Location: Seattle, WA
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #29 on: July 16, 2012, 11:29:14 AM »
Why does it seem like almost all of the topics in this forum end up off-topic?

Posters have enough free time such that we keep posting after we feel the original topic has been answered, so inevitably it goes off topic?
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

mechanic baird

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 109
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #30 on: July 16, 2012, 12:46:02 PM »

Similarly, the value of the US dollar is a store of wealth influenced by all kinds of factors, but ultimately controlled solely by what people are willing to pay for it.
This is a very important notion here. Our dollar is worth what people are willing to pay.
We have a very large portion of the investments coming from foreign investors. When they realize US is no longer a good profitable place to invest, they will pull their money out and invest in their own country instead.

That's when the sharp drop of US dollar owned assets will begin.

So back to my original post question, where do you keep your money.. I think I will take arebelspy's original advise and buy some tulip bulbs..

arebelspy

  • Administrator
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *****
  • Posts: 28444
  • Age: -997
  • Location: Seattle, WA
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #31 on: July 16, 2012, 01:06:31 PM »
Your question is ambiguous to me.

"Where do you keep your FI stach?"

I'm not sure what that means.  I see (at least) three interpretations.

Do you mean what is our asset allocation?  Or what sort of vehicles is it in (401k vs Roth vs taxable, etc.)?  Or what company is it with (Schwab vs. Vanguard, etc.)?

...where do you keep your 'stache is ambiguous, and a clearer question may yield more profitable answers.

Probably not though, as each of those have been discussed (so posters may not want to repeat themselves here), so doing a search on what exactly you're looking for will likely yeild the best results of all.
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

mechanic baird

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 109
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #32 on: July 16, 2012, 01:15:32 PM »
Thanks for clarify.

I meant for "asset allocation" for your freedom money. Since the time horizon of FI stash is usually shorter (i.e. people want to start withdraw a lot earlier). I am curious to see where people keep this money now.

As the economy uncertainty grows, I am having a hard time figure out where to put the money if I want to start withdrawing withn 8-10 years.

My major concern is inflation, dollar devalue, another recession.

tooqk4u22

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2832
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #33 on: July 16, 2012, 01:25:58 PM »
Your question is ambiguous to me.


I guess it was somewhat ambiguous but if you read between the lines the OP is basically saying oh shit everywhere I look to invest seems to have major obvious risks.

Diversified portfolio with exposure to real estate, europe, and emerging markets. Bonds should be part of it but a small part right now - between potential for higher rates and inflation they just don't make sense. 


arebelspy

  • Administrator
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *****
  • Posts: 28444
  • Age: -997
  • Location: Seattle, WA
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #34 on: July 16, 2012, 01:31:07 PM »
Since the time horizon of FI stash is usually shorter (i.e. people want to start withdraw a lot earlier).

Huh, I look at it the exact opposite.  Sure, one may want to start some withdrawals within 5-10 years.

But I see the time horizon of my FI stache as very, very long term - it needs to last the rest of my life, which could be 50+ more years.
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

mechanic baird

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 109
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #35 on: July 16, 2012, 02:25:36 PM »
Since the time horizon of FI stash is usually shorter (i.e. people want to start withdraw a lot earlier).

Huh, I look at it the exact opposite.  Sure, one may want to start some withdrawals within 5-10 years.

But I see the time horizon of my FI stache as very, very long term - it needs to last the rest of my life, which could be 50+ more years.

Not if I need to withdraw in a few years and saw the stock market lost 70% in value by then..

Like the earlier post.. I see risks everywhere these days, not little risks but very concerning risks.

grantmeaname

  • CM*MW 2023 Attendees
  • Walrus Stache
  • *
  • Posts: 5960
  • Age: 31
  • Location: Middle West
  • Cast me away from yesterday's things
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #36 on: July 16, 2012, 02:29:57 PM »
You don't withdraw your entire stash the day you retire. You withdraw it over half a century, so that's the time horizon you're interested in.

arebelspy

  • Administrator
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *****
  • Posts: 28444
  • Age: -997
  • Location: Seattle, WA
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #37 on: July 16, 2012, 03:36:27 PM »
You don't withdraw your entire stash the day you retire. You withdraw it over half a century, so that's the time horizon you're interested in.

Exactly.  You'll have 50+ years for that market to recover.

Not only that, but when ERing, a retirement date is flexible.  Mine is 5-10 years out, depending on how things go.  If you set an absolute deadline regardless of anything, sure you could run into trouble.  If you're flexible with your retirement date, your spending in retirement, etc... You should be fine.
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

Mr Mark

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1229
  • Location: Planet Earth
  • Achieved Financial Independence summer 2014. RE'18
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #38 on: July 16, 2012, 11:24:54 PM »
I think you're asking, "But what if all this falls apart financially again but somehow the sky is also falling and owning multi-national companies, local rentals real estate, loans to the us gov and others, your portfolio somehow looses 70% and never recovers? That sort of scenario?

You're sounding like a wacko gold hyperinflationist to me.

Good luck mate. A ranch in Montana, off the grid, with lots of gold and lead sounds like a great FI option, given your predictions of the future...

arebelspy

  • Administrator
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *****
  • Posts: 28444
  • Age: -997
  • Location: Seattle, WA
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #39 on: July 17, 2012, 09:09:16 AM »
I think you're asking, "But what if all this falls apart financially again but somehow the sky is also falling and owning multi-national companies, local rentals real estate, loans to the us gov and others, your portfolio somehow looses 70% and never recovers? That sort of scenario?

You're sounding like a wacko gold hyperinflationist to me.

Good luck mate. A ranch in Montana, off the grid, with lots of gold and lead sounds like a great FI option, given your predictions of the future...

Heck, it sounds decent to me, regardless of the future.  ;)
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

Will

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 798
  • Location: Vancouver, WA
  • What the deuce?!?!?
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #40 on: July 17, 2012, 09:35:33 AM »
I think you're asking, "But what if all this falls apart financially again but somehow the sky is also falling and owning multi-national companies, local rentals real estate, loans to the us gov and others, your portfolio somehow looses 70% and never recovers? That sort of scenario?

You're sounding like a wacko gold hyperinflationist to me.

Good luck mate. A ranch in Montana, off the grid, with lots of gold and lead sounds like a great FI option, given your predictions of the future...

Heck, it sounds decent to me, regardless of the future.  ;)

Is that lead in the form of bullets?

tooqk4u22

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2832
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #41 on: July 17, 2012, 10:06:42 AM »
Will I be near a river to fish in....if so sign me up. 

Mr Mark

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1229
  • Location: Planet Earth
  • Achieved Financial Independence summer 2014. RE'18
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #42 on: July 17, 2012, 05:37:56 PM »
Since the time horizon of FI stash is usually shorter (i.e. people want to start withdraw a lot earlier).

Huh, I look at it the exact opposite.  Sure, one may want to start some withdrawals within 5-10 years.

But I see the time horizon of my FI stache as very, very long term - it needs to last the rest of my life, which could be 50+ more years.

Not if I need to withdraw in a few years and saw the stock market lost 70% in value by then..

Like the earlier post.. I see risks everywhere these days, not little risks but very concerning risks.



OK. You are correct, there seem to be risks everywhere right now, because of past events. (Note, this is usually a great thing for long term investors like us).

Don't panic.

So my recommendation would be to spread your stash using a very conservative AA, that would be as robust as possible to the events you describe and makes you feel comfortable and safe.

The disadvantage of this is that it will reduce returns over 30+ years according to the past history of the world so far. And you are right to remind us of that assumption.

But what are these safer assets?  Cash means you'll loose to inflation and lost real returns; gold seems beyond a bubble compared to other commodity prices; real estate seems stuck, stock market volatile;
and bond prices at record highs, increasingly dominated by non- market forces like central banks; municipal bankruptcies...

So,

1/ Look to own a modest mustashian home mortgage free in a place with very low property taxes. Maybe take advantage of the foreclosures market.

2/ Think of adding an adjacent rental unit or 2, if strong cash flow, with 80% financing (30 yr fixed). Learn how to manage it if required to 'force' additional income in extremis.

3/ Asset allocation.
Use the 401ks if you can, and roths etc. Assign assets as per Arebelspy's chart.

Then split between 25% each of :
- commodities,like Vanguards precious metals fund VGPMX, or other ETFs (caution, these can high fee and volatile), energy companies, heck even a little bit of physical gold

- a balanced fund, like VWINX, has a 35/65 bond/stock mix

- international stock, maybe focused a bit away from Japan.

- cash (not too much as green), but insured CDs,
maybe spread across US$, Canadian $, Aussie $, Sing $


I wouldn't do this myself, but as long as you stick to it, I can't see a 70% dip ever.

smedleyb

  • Guest
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #43 on: July 17, 2012, 07:14:31 PM »
OK. You are correct, there seem to be risks everywhere right now, because of past events. (Note, this is usually a great thing for long term investors like us).

This is a good observation.  The recency of certain events do disproportionately influence current attitudes about the markets. I often wonder to what degree my own intermediate term bearishness (2-5 years) is determined by the events of the past 3-4 years.  Yet while I think the crisis of 2008-2009 was produced by a unique set of circumstances -- unregulated CDSs on crappy MBSs, for starters -- I think the next "phase" of the debt crisis will be most acutely felt in the arena of sovereign debt, which is a different battle altogether, and quite a bit scarier (in terms of consequences) than a bunch of overleveraged multi-national financial concerns going belly up (see Greece, Spain).

I went all cash in 2007 because I thought shit was about to hit the fan.  As we inch closer to 2017, however, I want to get much, much longer the stock market, and much, much shorter the doom and gloom. 

 

   

Nudelkopf

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 897
  • Age: 32
  • Location: Australia
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #44 on: July 18, 2012, 05:57:52 AM »
Where do you get 4% in cash?
New Zealand.
Wait, is 4% unheard of in the US? I've got 5% (Australia) (Down 0.75% from 18months ago, sadface)

grantmeaname

  • CM*MW 2023 Attendees
  • Walrus Stache
  • *
  • Posts: 5960
  • Age: 31
  • Location: Middle West
  • Cast me away from yesterday's things
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #45 on: July 18, 2012, 06:17:58 AM »
1% is almost unheard of in the US.

arebelspy

  • Administrator
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *****
  • Posts: 28444
  • Age: -997
  • Location: Seattle, WA
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #46 on: July 18, 2012, 09:51:12 AM »
1% is almost unheard of in the US.

Right.  5 years ago it was different, and 5 years from now it will be different(?), but right now I'm getting 1% on my liquid cash at smartypig.com.

On the other hand, I'm locking in mortgages all the time at low, low rates, so I'm happy if yield on CDs, savings accounts, etc. is low for awhile.
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

mechanic baird

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 109
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #47 on: July 18, 2012, 12:27:08 PM »
I think you're asking, "But what if all this falls apart financially again but somehow the sky is also falling and owning multi-national companies, local rentals real estate, loans to the us gov and others, your portfolio somehow looses 70% and never recovers? That sort of scenario?

You're sounding like a wacko gold hyperinflationist to me.

Good luck mate. A ranch in Montana, off the grid, with lots of gold and lead sounds like a great FI option, given your predictions of the future...
No, that's not what I meant. I do not believe in hyperinflation what so ever the none sense. As long as the world trades oil and commodity in dollar, we will not see dollar goes down to zero. Therefore, no doom.

I think the other guys (arebelspy and mark) answered my questions in a much better way. To stay flexible, have some funds for immediate need and bank on a long horizon for majority of the funds.. The key is to stay flexible, cut expenses, learn to live and enjoy on non material things and be patient..
« Last Edit: July 18, 2012, 12:30:40 PM by mechanic baird »

arebelspy

  • Administrator
  • Senior Mustachian
  • *****
  • Posts: 28444
  • Age: -997
  • Location: Seattle, WA
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #48 on: July 18, 2012, 12:32:33 PM »
To stay flexible, have some funds for immediate need and bank on a long horizon for majority of the funds.. The key is to stay flexible, cut expenses, learn to live and enjoy on non material things and be patient..

Exactly.

There will be drops.  The answer, though it isn't super comforting, is "Stay the course. Rebalance when necessary."

Flexibility in tough times is obviously helpful to one's comfort level with doing this.
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

mechanic baird

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 109
Re: Where do you keep your FI stash?
« Reply #49 on: July 18, 2012, 12:32:58 PM »



I wouldn't do this myself, but ....
Hi Mark, thanks for all of your wonderful advises. So what would you do yourself?

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!