Author Topic: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment  (Read 4705 times)

BicycleB

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #50 on: April 02, 2020, 10:32:15 AM »
...Is there information not priced in that will cause a bear market drop from current levels?

I think there's enough uncertainty about the future at the moment that anything from another big bear (30% or more drop from today) to "Bottom is in, never will it be this low again" is possible.

Downside: We never had as sharp a deflationary trigger before, never a crisis with such low interest rates at the start, and arguably the low rates built up a sneakier bigger subtler debt overhang than ever before. The trigger may be merely releasing the downward potential we already had, or increasing it. Another 50% down over 18 months is possible, after COVID's daily impact melts away and people realize they're underwater in housing as well unemployed, and investors more precisely rationalize the many defaults and near-defaults in specific industries.

Upside: Most governments are countering the coronavirus shutdowns with record stimulus in speed and record or near-record stimulus in size. As tests proliferate and hospitals return to operating at capacity instead of above it, social distancing could disappear faster than we now imagine. Once it becomes evident that most people are back to work, markets will realize that the economic impact is a blip, not a disaster. Global governments' ability to sustain low interest rates will prove that correspondingly high stock prices are logical, sustainable, reliable.

In short, it's possible that current stock prices are a middle ground. If the facts tend toward one extreme or the other in the next 12 months, stock prices could follow.

Maybe the right path is a partial move now, followed by a consolidating move later. Rebalance today and again next year, then?
« Last Edit: April 02, 2020, 10:45:21 AM by BicycleB »

FrugalSaver

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #51 on: April 07, 2020, 10:36:33 AM »
2730 is the level I’ve been tracking as the upside for a failure and then a longer term re-entry. If sound here an become support it’s time to re-enter

A “cure” or similar change that suggests commerce will begin sooner and everyone gets their jobs back would of course change things.

I’ve made countless trades in this market but 401k has continued to be sidelined earning money in a “zero risk” holding.

Will be fun to read this in hindsight and see where different financial decisions should have been made.

Financially, saddest part of all of this is how extensively the value of our $ has been eroded in such a short time. That will be a price to be paid eventually but could be years from now
« Last Edit: April 07, 2020, 10:41:21 AM by FrugalSaver »

waltworks

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #52 on: April 07, 2020, 02:38:10 PM »
Meh, unless you stash physical cash in your mattress, you're fine. The hyperinflation people have been screaming about that for several decades now. Even if we get lots of inflation, if you own RE or stocks, you're good.

But then, I have plenty of experience trying and failing to predict the future. So I just invest optimistically and enjoy my life.

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FrugalSaver

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #53 on: April 09, 2020, 10:38:23 AM »
May print our way out of this. Still being patient with the tranches

American GenX

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #54 on: April 09, 2020, 04:04:54 PM »
Financially, saddest part of all of this is how extensively the value of our $ has been eroded in such a short time. That will be a price to be paid eventually but could be years from now

Indeed.  First by Trump's Chinese tariffs which amounted to a tax increase on American consumers through higher prices, and now the coronavirus.  The worst is definitely yet to come.

FrugalSaver

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #55 on: April 09, 2020, 07:41:43 PM »
Financially, saddest part of all of this is how extensively the value of our $ has been eroded in such a short time. That will be a price to be paid eventually but could be years from now

Indeed.  First by Trump's Chinese tariffs which amounted to a tax increase on American consumers through higher prices, and now the coronavirus.  The worst is definitely yet to come.

Could be. We shall see

Happy Easter to everyone. We should focus on what’s most important

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #56 on: April 10, 2020, 02:51:18 AM »
Financially, saddest part of all of this is how extensively the value of our $ has been eroded in such a short time. That will be a price to be paid eventually but could be years from now
Indeed.  First by Trump's Chinese tariffs which amounted to a tax increase on American consumers through higher prices, and now the coronavirus.  The worst is definitely yet to come.
Translating that to "tariffs hurt VTI performance", I looked up the timeline of the tariffs, which escalated starting from mid-2018.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-timeline/timeline-key-dates-in-the-us-china-trade-war-idUSKCN1VQ24Y

Performance data show 2018 was a down year (-5%), so maybe tariffs had an impact.  But 2019 performance suggests the impact wasn't long lived, since markets rose +31%.
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/vti/performance