...Is there information not priced in that will cause a bear market drop from current levels?
I think there's enough uncertainty about the future at the moment that anything from another big bear (30% or more drop from today) to "Bottom is in, never will it be this low again" is possible.
Downside: We never had as sharp a deflationary trigger before, never a crisis with such low interest rates at the start, and arguably the low rates built up a sneakier bigger subtler debt overhang than ever before. The trigger may be merely releasing the downward potential we already had, or increasing it. Another 50% down over 18 months is possible, after COVID's daily impact melts away and people realize they're underwater in housing as well unemployed, and investors more precisely rationalize the many defaults and near-defaults in specific industries.
Upside: Most governments are countering the coronavirus shutdowns with record stimulus in speed and record or near-record stimulus in size. As tests proliferate and hospitals return to operating at capacity instead of above it, social distancing could disappear faster than we now imagine. Once it becomes evident that most people are back to work, markets will realize that the economic impact is a blip, not a disaster. Global governments' ability to sustain low interest rates will prove that correspondingly high stock prices are logical, sustainable, reliable.
In short, it's possible that current stock prices are a middle ground. If the facts tend toward one extreme or the other in the next 12 months, stock prices could follow.
Maybe the right path is a partial move now, followed by a consolidating move later. Rebalance today and again next year, then?
