Author Topic: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment  (Read 4704 times)

FrugalSaver

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When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« on: March 21, 2020, 10:51:46 PM »
Having moved most of my investments out of the market in late January in anticipation of this, I admittedly could not have forecast this carnage or have scientifically timed the market well. That said, I still have plenty of investments in the market that have been obliterated and may he lost forever. The pain has been felt by everyone.

This has presented a golden opportunity. Unless this thing kills us all, itís likely to be less impactful human life wise than swine flu back in 2009 which took over 500,000 lives and infected 1 BILLION people world wide.

That said, what recommendations does anyone have to determine when to get back in. An announcement of a proven vaccine (already available and being tested) will cause the market to rip higher.

I suspect the market will go down no more than another 20% and even that would surprise me. I expect the bottom, of it hasnít already happened, will be sometime in the next 6 weeks. Probably sooner than that.

Welcome any thoughts.

ender

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #1 on: March 21, 2020, 11:01:21 PM »
This can be a choose your adventure.

  • Wanting to lock in your market timing success
  • Wanting to gamble again

moof

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #2 on: March 21, 2020, 11:13:43 PM »
Choose an asset allocation.  Stick to it.  Stop timing the market.  You got lucky this time, but donít let that one lottery ticket that made you money send you on a path of gambling instead of investing.

Joe Schmo

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #3 on: March 21, 2020, 11:25:56 PM »
Iím confused. Apparently you are the guy who knew exactly when to get out, shouldnít you be da dude to know exactly when to get back in?


FrugalSaver

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #4 on: March 21, 2020, 11:27:22 PM »
This can be a choose your adventure.

  • Wanting to lock in your market timing success
  • Wanting to gamble again

#1 has already been achieved

Iím focused on th next step which isnít gambling. I have a long history of investing and moving this percentage of assets aside is not something Iíve done before, so im comfortable with my investment record of Non-gambling but glad I took a reasonable step when the market was clearly ahead of itself and the perfect match to the tinderbox was in the horizon. If I was wrong, the opportunity cost would have likely been no more than 5% upside

FrugalSaver

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #5 on: March 21, 2020, 11:30:27 PM »
Iím confused. Apparently you are the guy who knew exactly when to get out, shouldnít you be da dude to know exactly when to get back in?

I didnít ďknowĒ. I made an educated guess. Not recommended to anyone of course and not something I have done before.

I plan to redeploy most all assets between Dow 15,000 and Dow 20,000 unless I complete miss it and we have a 20% move up next week which could be possible. No one can predict.

I expect more pain ahead as anyone that dies goes in the corona tally and videos and photos splash across the headlines. The fear has likely just begun for a bit before it runs its course

And in that, I could be wrong as well. Maybe last week was the peak of the panic but I donít think so

ender

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #6 on: March 21, 2020, 11:39:38 PM »
This can be a choose your adventure.

  • Wanting to lock in your market timing success
  • Wanting to gamble again

#1 has already been achieved

Iím focused on th next step which isnít gambling. I have a long history of investing and moving this percentage of assets aside is not something Iíve done before, so im comfortable with my investment record of Non-gambling but glad I took a reasonable step when the market was clearly ahead of itself and the perfect match to the tinderbox was in the horizon. If I was wrong, the opportunity cost would have likely been no more than 5% upside

#1 is only achieved if/when you buy back in.

If you think the market will go down more and choose to hold cash instead of getting back in, you aren't achieving #1 at all.

FrugalSaver

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #7 on: March 21, 2020, 11:55:01 PM »
This can be a choose your adventure.

  • Wanting to lock in your market timing success
  • Wanting to gamble again

#1 has already been achieved

Iím focused on th next step which isnít gambling. I have a long history of investing and moving this percentage of assets aside is not something Iíve done before, so im comfortable with my investment record of Non-gambling but glad I took a reasonable step when the market was clearly ahead of itself and the perfect match to the tinderbox was in the horizon. If I was wrong, the opportunity cost would have likely been no more than 5% upside

#1 is only achieved if/when you buy back in.

If you think the market will go down more and choose to hold cash instead of getting back in, you aren't achieving #1 at all.


Ahh. Youíre arguing the extent of #1. Not that #1 exists. I wonít wait for Dow 29,500 to get back in so success of #1 is already achieved. The extent to which it is successful will depend on prices I achieve in getting back in.

Youíre not interested in discussing my topic though so thatís all I have to say on your response.

Jack0Life

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #8 on: March 21, 2020, 11:58:02 PM »
Don't listen to the naysayers. I'm in the same boat. "high-five"
I have around $300k idling in MM just itching to jump back in.
I also have $70k in cash that I need to make use of this golden opportunity.
I've been predicting 15k Dow and I'm sticking to it. I'll be buying back in stages though. Or if I see the pandemic stabilizing which I don't think is anytime soon.
I'm buying back when the Dow hits 18k, 17k, etcc....all in if it hits 15k.
Even if I'm wrong and the market suddenly start going back up next week ?? I've already save myself 25-30% during the plunge so no matter when I jump back in, I'll already ahead.

FrugalSaver

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #9 on: March 22, 2020, 01:05:40 AM »
Don't listen to the naysayers. I'm in the same boat. "high-five"
I have around $300k idling in MM just itching to jump back in.
I also have $70k in cash that I need to make use of this golden opportunity.
I've been predicting 15k Dow and I'm sticking to it. I'll be buying back in stages though. Or if I see the pandemic stabilizing which I don't think is anytime soon.
I'm buying back when the Dow hits 18k, 17k, etcc....all in if it hits 15k.
Even if I'm wrong and the market suddenly start going back up next week ?? I've already save myself 25-30% during the plunge so no matter when I jump back in, I'll already ahead.

Having been through this a couple of time as you may have too, I only suggest donít wait too long. When things turn it will be violent. There may be headfakes as well

I would be content to get back in with all of it at 20k but am being a little cute in waiting for the carnage headlines that no doubt will be on full throttle next week and this weekend.

Reading MMM last post helps bring calm and comfort in chaos. Obviously things are bad and prayers for all affected (thatís all of us) but context is very important

bwall

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #10 on: March 22, 2020, 04:53:10 AM »
Congrats to OP and @Jack0Life . Well done! It's hard to pull the trigger and sell, even when you suspect a drop is coming.

Here's what I said over a week ago when I started a thread about just that; when the market will stop falling;

The market will stop dropping when:

1) We get a vaccine for Covid-19
OR
2) It's run it's course in the USA or perceived to be over, 'peaked', whatever.


Until that happens, do not buy. As soon as you see the market responding to either one, just wait. There will be sucker's rallies--dont' be fooled. They only lead to lower high's and lower lows.

There are many adages on Wall St. since people on Wall St. have been trying to time the market for over 125 years, probably closer to 200 years.

"The bear market ends only when the last bull is converted into a bear" (and the converse is true of a bull market). This means that as long as you read news reports of people saying 'it won't last long' or 'it's almost over', then you must still wait. When the news reports change to 'this could take years to fix.' or 'don't expect any gains for the next years.' or 'who would invest in today's market', etc. then you know we're getting a lot closer to the market bottom.

And, now people see panic on Wall St. they call it irrational selling--and it is. Until it wasn't. By then it's too late to sell, of course. 

Jessie Livermore, one of the greatest traders ever on Wall St. said in the 1930's "Look at the past b/c there's nothing new on Wall St. If you can think of it, someone's tried it before" or words to that effect. I'd highly encourage any market timer wishing for success read his book "Reminisces of a Stock Operator". For just a few dollars you can learn about Wall St's. most successful trader--ever.



Jack0Life

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #11 on: March 22, 2020, 09:05:37 AM »
Don't listen to the naysayers. I'm in the same boat. "high-five"
I have around $300k idling in MM just itching to jump back in.
I also have $70k in cash that I need to make use of this golden opportunity.
I've been predicting 15k Dow and I'm sticking to it. I'll be buying back in stages though. Or if I see the pandemic stabilizing which I don't think is anytime soon.
I'm buying back when the Dow hits 18k, 17k, etcc....all in if it hits 15k.
Even if I'm wrong and the market suddenly start going back up next week ?? I've already save myself 25-30% during the plunge so no matter when I jump back in, I'll already ahead.

Having been through this a couple of time as you may have too, I only suggest donít wait too long. When things turn it will be violent. There may be headfakes as well

I would be content to get back in with all of it at 20k but am being a little cute in waiting for the carnage headlines that no doubt will be on full throttle next week and this weekend.

Reading MMM last post helps bring calm and comfort in chaos. Obviously things are bad and prayers for all affected (thatís all of us) but context is very important

To be honest, when this thing started, I would never imagined the Dow hitting 20k. But now that its @19k, I kinda look at the situation at hand. Its only the 1st week of a soft lock down. The pandemic is just starting.
I'd be really surprise if the market is going up anytime soon. Yeah I'm being a bit greedy.
Once in my lifetime opportunity and I'm taking advantage of it. In 08-09, I didn't have any money.

poetdereves

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #12 on: March 22, 2020, 10:53:26 AM »
I honestly have no clue where the bottom is, but I was only 18 when the last recession hit and had no money to invest. I am lucky enough this time that I just started a new job in January after many years in school with no income. My wife and I had a pretty big cushion that would cover us while I was in school that we didnít need anymore since I am in a field that will not shrink during this outbreak. That freed up quite a few thousand dollars to put into the market at a pretty opportune time. Sure, maybe the market isnít done dropping, but I was able to put in my cash with the Dow at 19,000 instead of almost 30,000. Iím in it for the long haul, so I will take the discounts where I can get them. Even if it drops to 15,000 or less it isnít a big deal because Iím not using this money anytime soon and I am young enough that even if it went to literal zero (it wonít) I would just count it as an expensive lesson.

NWOutlier

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #13 on: March 22, 2020, 11:22:08 AM »
I feel this is one of the cases where dollar cost averaging will benefit over a lump sum...

I modified my investments to be 2x a month instead of 1x per month and stayed the course of broad index funds.  I am considering a 1x per week purchase approach, but - I think 2x a month is good for now.

NWOutlier (Steve)

dougules

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #14 on: March 23, 2020, 11:05:23 AM »
Don't listen to the naysayers. I'm in the same boat. "high-five"
I have around $300k idling in MM just itching to jump back in.
I also have $70k in cash that I need to make use of this golden opportunity.
I've been predicting 15k Dow and I'm sticking to it. I'll be buying back in stages though. Or if I see the pandemic stabilizing which I don't think is anytime soon.
I'm buying back when the Dow hits 18k, 17k, etcc....all in if it hits 15k.
Even if I'm wrong and the market suddenly start going back up next week ?? I've already save myself 25-30% during the plunge so no matter when I jump back in, I'll already ahead.

Having been through this a couple of time as you may have too, I only suggest donít wait too long. When things turn it will be violent. There may be headfakes as well

I would be content to get back in with all of it at 20k but am being a little cute in waiting for the carnage headlines that no doubt will be on full throttle next week and this weekend.

Reading MMM last post helps bring calm and comfort in chaos. Obviously things are bad and prayers for all affected (thatís all of us) but context is very important

How you did you do in 2007, 2000, and 1987?

Mighty-Dollar

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #15 on: March 23, 2020, 12:58:55 PM »
The DOW is going down to at least 15,000.  What happens when they end this shutting down of businesses? The virus picks back up again and everyone panics all over again with no hope because containment failed. There will be grand evening news reports of hospitals getting slammed, people dying, etc. This virus hasn't even hit 1% of the population. We're at 0.012% right now (plus the untested people who we don't know about). How can we have herd immunity with such a small amount of the population infected?
The best hope for stocks is an effective treatment that will shorten hospital stays and ease fears. Self-testing for anyone and everyone will help too.
Even once they have a vaccine in 18 months or so, then the conversation will turn to federal, state and local debt that will have spiraled further out of control. Also Europe will get slammed. They're our business partners (who we've lost tons of business with).
« Last Edit: March 23, 2020, 01:04:01 PM by Mighty-Dollar »

chairman5

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #16 on: March 23, 2020, 01:06:52 PM »
Don't listen to the naysayers. I'm in the same boat. "high-five"
I have around $300k idling in MM just itching to jump back in.
I also have $70k in cash that I need to make use of this golden opportunity.
I've been predicting 15k Dow and I'm sticking to it. I'll be buying back in stages though. Or if I see the pandemic stabilizing which I don't think is anytime soon.
I'm buying back when the Dow hits 18k, 17k, etcc....all in if it hits 15k.
Even if I'm wrong and the market suddenly start going back up next week ?? I've already save myself 25-30% during the plunge so no matter when I jump back in, I'll already ahead.

 My plan as well.

dougules

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #17 on: March 23, 2020, 02:01:33 PM »
Do you really think you're the only person in the market considering that possibility?

ChpBstrd

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #18 on: March 23, 2020, 02:02:22 PM »
There is a difference between a correction and a crisis. December 2018 was a correction. It was over in a month. It had no discernable cause and no effects, except on portfolios. This particular economic drag will go on for 18-36 months as the infection moves through the population. Most people will eventually get it, and be unable to work for about 10% of the year as a result. A few million U.S. deaths will reduce the size of the economy and GDP, but the effect of social distancing / hoarding / shelter-in-place will drop consumption much more; 20-30% if you use Chinese January data as an example. Meanwhile, stimulus measures will bump GDP up maybe 2-3% from where it would otherwise be.

A second-order effect will be a financial crisis in a few months. It could start with mortgages, Italian debt, a rogue trader, a money market fund, junk bonds, investment-grade to junk downgrades, securitized consumer debt, small business loans, or derivatives, but regardless of which exact vulnerability blows up, something will blow up and take down a big financial institution with it. Next step: panic.

So be patient. I doubt you'll miss a massive run-up in April when a cure is found and everyone gets the cure and goes back to working and spending like drunk consumerists.

My objective is to hold out long enough to lock in returns that would allow for a 5-6% SWR. For example, preferred stocks (PFF, PGF, PFXF) are now yielding over 7%, and that could go up dramatically during the financial crisis phase. IG bonds are paying around 6% at the low end, but that'll be 8-10% at some point as they get downgraded, a panic occurs, or liquidity dries up. For those of us who hedged, this crisis is a years-long reverse auction that could actually knock years off our working careers. But as in 2008, a failure of patience will lead to regret. My "buy signal" is when things are so cheap that I could retire on the yields. At that point, I click buy, retire, and have no regrets if it falls further.

To mitigate the risk of being left behind by the recovery, I might buy calls at various points. But again, this will take over a year to resolve.


bthewalls

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #19 on: March 23, 2020, 02:26:06 PM »
Iím confused. Apparently you are the guy who knew exactly when to get out, shouldnít you be da dude to know exactly when to get back in?

Dalio foretasted a recession in spring 2020, obviously not from a virus....but its hardly surprising that some sort of dip or recession was going to happen after 10 years of growth.

Next there will be an near extinction level meteor event! Apparently we are over due that too.

frugaldrummer

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #20 on: March 23, 2020, 02:53:09 PM »
I put half my 401k into cash mid-January at the peak because I have a background that allowed me to understand what was likely to happen with this pandemic. I only moved half because I have never market timed before and was hedging my bets. I was roundly criticized and advised to buy back in at the first 5% drop but I knew worse was coming. Nice to see good discussion here about when to buy back in.

I know you can never predict the bottom, and a lot is still unknown. I do plan to start buying back in soon.  Competing factors that I see:

1) True panic hasn't started yet. When the Joe Blows who are ignoring social distancing and shelter in place recommendations now start to see their local hospitals overrun the reality will start to sink in and panic will be widespread.  We are less than ten days behind Italy so expect this soon. Already saw a post today by a NYC ER doc saying 90% of the patients he was seeing in the ER now have CoVid symptoms. My city supposedly only has less than 200 confirmed cases but I know 4 people who likely have it and haven't been able to get tested so the true numbers are WAYYYYYYYY higher.  We only had 1,000 tests available a week ago for a population of over 3 million so you do the math.

2)Effective treatments may be around the corner. While there will be shortages of these drugs, it will reduce the death rate and once people feel there is a treatment (even though it might not be available to them) they will think it's all over and start back into the market.  There will definitely be a bump up if another successful trial is announced.

3) Seasonal improvement - we have no idea whether this will happen or not, but if it does, the market will come back up as new cases die down.

4) Legislation - I think this will only have short term effects for now.

Just looking at a chart of the DJIA looks like the last time the market was this low it bottomed at 16,300 - 18,400.  Assuming no big good news I sort of expect it to bottom around there and will start gradually buying back in in this range.

Expecting 300,000 to 1 million US deaths when this is all over, possibly less if effective treatments are found and can be ramped up. Not counted are the incidental deaths from lack of healthcare access - when hospitals are full of CoVid patients your heart attack care may suffer.




BicycleB

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #21 on: March 23, 2020, 03:28:01 PM »
OP - Maybe you should invest a third now, a third after S&P 500 rises or falls 20% from there, and a third after another 20% move.

That would allow you to respond to events, move at a pace that allows gains to increase, yet guarantees that your buy-in price will be better on average then when you sold. Doing it in steps gives you more chances to win, so to speak, while having a "system" ensures you can complete the process successfully.

FrugalSaver

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #22 on: March 27, 2020, 05:56:30 AM »
Don't listen to the naysayers. I'm in the same boat. "high-five"
I have around $300k idling in MM just itching to jump back in.
I also have $70k in cash that I need to make use of this golden opportunity.
I've been predicting 15k Dow and I'm sticking to it. I'll be buying back in stages though. Or if I see the pandemic stabilizing which I don't think is anytime soon.
I'm buying back when the Dow hits 18k, 17k, etcc....all in if it hits 15k.
Even if I'm wrong and the market suddenly start going back up next week ?? I've already save myself 25-30% during the plunge so no matter when I jump back in, I'll already ahead.

Have you made any changes yet?

FrugalSaver

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #23 on: March 27, 2020, 06:08:58 AM »
Dow down nearly 700 points this morning. Bill will get signed. Not sure how much that matters because everyone knows that.

British PM has it. Prince Charles has it. trump Biden and Bernie will get it. Not sure anyone has a chance or not getting it when all the elites with all their protections are getting it. That will trigger a new wave of fear.

Then you have all the brokerages raising margin requirements which will trigger another wave of selling.

Iíve patiently been sitting on hands. Admittedly for all my planning, I couldnít foretell a 25% rip your face off rally in 2-3 days but I said one was coming I just didnít expect THAT violent in such a short time.

Pelosinsays ďwe can do MOARRRRRR!!Ē  Not sure what that means as in theory that helps Trump and sheís none too interested in that but politics makes strange bed fellows.

We also have QE infinity and Mnuchin saying they will buy VTSAX (or similar) directly with taxpayer money. Thatís never been done before. What effect does that have?  Unknown.

Waiting and watching and taking vitamin C and zinc

BicycleB

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #24 on: March 27, 2020, 12:52:59 PM »
Dow down nearly 700 points this morning. Bill will get signed. Not sure how much that matters because everyone knows that.

British PM has it. Prince Charles has it. trump Biden and Bernie will get it. Not sure anyone has a chance or not getting it when all the elites with all their protections are getting it. That will trigger a new wave of fear.

Then you have all the brokerages raising margin requirements which will trigger another wave of selling.

Iíve patiently been sitting on hands. Admittedly for all my planning, I couldnít foretell a 25% rip your face off rally in 2-3 days but I said one was coming I just didnít expect THAT violent in such a short time.

Pelosinsays ďwe can do MOARRRRRR!!Ē  Not sure what that means as in theory that helps Trump and sheís none too interested in that but politics makes strange bed fellows.

We also have QE infinity and Mnuchin saying they will buy VTSAX (or similar) directly with taxpayer money. Thatís never been done before. What effect does that have?  Unknown.

Waiting and watching and taking vitamin C and zinc

What? Not a targeted purchase, like an airline bailout similar to 2009's auto bailout?

My Google is not finding this. Help! Links?

FrugalSaver

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #25 on: March 27, 2020, 04:06:05 PM »
If this plays out like past events similar (though nothing is exactly the same), we will be giving up 20% more (if not more) over the next several weeks.

I've still been sitting on my hands trying to be patient.  I suspect we will all have some time to leg in slowly but the ups and downs will be violent.

Keep your nerve.  Appears the news is going to be getting much worse before it gets better but maybe this is all overblown.

I see 0% chance people will be going back to work in the next 2 weeks, other than some select locations in the USA maybe in remote locations which will have little to no impact on the overall economy.

blue_green_sparks

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #26 on: March 27, 2020, 04:24:30 PM »
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

IMHE expects that we will hit around 2340 deaths a day mid April. Will the market be in recovery?

waltworks

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #27 on: March 27, 2020, 04:43:39 PM »
I'm just gonna buy all the way down. No way to lose, really. If the market goes to zero and we're all dead, the ones and zeros on Vanguard's server won't help me anyway.

-W

FrugalSaver

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #28 on: March 27, 2020, 05:53:51 PM »
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

IMHE expects that we will hit around 2340 deaths a day mid April. Will the market be in recovery?

Some of those numbers are often worst case and or intended to scare people indoors. Not sure weíll get to thousands of deaths per day but itís possible.

Food supply is next biggest concern.

waltworks

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #29 on: March 27, 2020, 06:45:11 PM »
Dude, if your concern is the food supply (in the United States), you should be buying MREs and ammo, not market timing, because there won't be a stock market to buy back into.

-W

FrugalSaver

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #30 on: March 27, 2020, 07:02:53 PM »
Dude, if your concern is the food supply (in the United States), you should be buying MREs and ammo, not market timing, because there won't be a stock market to buy back into.

-W

The manifest concern legitimately is the people that deliver the food supply getting sick and getting sick on he food you and your family consume without you realizing it.

Iím not saying it will be measurable but it certainly could be.

Upside risk is a cure is announced

waltworks

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #31 on: March 27, 2020, 07:35:35 PM »
Ok dude. Again, go for the MREs and bear repellant, not stocks.

-W

FrugalSaver

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #32 on: March 27, 2020, 07:37:57 PM »
Ok dude. Again, go for the MREs and bear repellant, not stocks.

-W

Youíre certainly entitled to your opinion that the point is looney tunes

waltworks

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #33 on: March 27, 2020, 08:15:18 PM »
You're welcome to explain how you think mass starvation won't mean the end of the USA as a functioning political entity, and hence also the end of the NYSE. Or do you think there will be kinda-sorta mass starvation and then a full recovery, and you'll time your Alphabet purchase just right?

Really, the smart thing to do would be to just buy back in. Because at this point, heads you win, tails everyone loses and it doesn't matter.

-W

Jack0Life

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #34 on: March 27, 2020, 09:25:02 PM »
Don't listen to the naysayers. I'm in the same boat. "high-five"
I have around $300k idling in MM just itching to jump back in.
I also have $70k in cash that I need to make use of this golden opportunity.
I've been predicting 15k Dow and I'm sticking to it. I'll be buying back in stages though. Or if I see the pandemic stabilizing which I don't think is anytime soon.
I'm buying back when the Dow hits 18k, 17k, etcc....all in if it hits 15k.
Even if I'm wrong and the market suddenly start going back up next week ?? I've already save myself 25-30% during the plunge so no matter when I jump back in, I'll already ahead.

Have you made any changes yet?

This is what I've done so far since that post. If you hate market timers don't read this.
- Sunday 22nd all $300k are in MM
- Monday. Dow hit 18.5k. I talked to wife about moving some money over, she told move 1/3. I didn't listen. I only moved $35k to VLCAX(Index). $43k to VLGSX(bonds).
- Tuesday. I gained $3300 from the $35k and lost $300 from the $43k. Net $3000. I then moved the $35k+gain to VLGSX. So now I have $81k in VLGSX. I also transfer $15k to VLCAX.
- Wed. I gained  only $100 from the $15k in VLCAX. Lost $480 from the $81k in VLGSX. I now have about $96k in GLGSX and the rest still in MM.
- Thur. Huge gain in the market. I didn't see this coming as unemployment didn't deter the market at all. I did gain about $700 in VLGSX(bonds).
- Fri. Decent drop in the market. Thought about moving more funds from MM to Index funds but I feel like there are rough times ahead next week. The $96k in VLGSX got a nice gain of $2400.

So after some market timing this week, I played with about $95k and got around $5500.
My thinking was this. I knew the stimulus bill was coming and there might be a nice run up in the market before it drops again. We are still way too early in this pandemic. I don't see stabilization yet which is why when I got a nice gain, I immediately move it out to capture that gain.
In hindsight, I should have left the initial $35k for Tues and Wed instead of just Tuesday. Thur gain was unexpected so no way for me to know.
I'm managing my investment like when I'm gambling. When I get a decent amount of winning, I pull out.

I'm still adamant that the market will drop much more. I still will follow the lead of buying in stages. Except this time I will leave the funds in for good. No more pulling in and out.
All my funds are in Vanguard. There's only so much I can do. They only let you move funds in and out of certain funds every month which is why I have to pick different Index and Bond funds.
I never bought stock before and I just opened a Fidelity to use my extra $70k solely for stocks. I'm targeting Disney at $80. It did get to $81 at one point. I didn't have an account to buy stocks at that moment. LOL there are so many stocks at a discount right now. I seriously can't lose if I just pick any of the popular stocks.

EDIT: I forgot I moved another $20k on Wed to VLGSX so I got a nice $500 gain by Friday end. Total gain for the week was $6k
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 10:53:30 AM by Jack0Life »

Jack0Life

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #35 on: March 27, 2020, 10:01:47 PM »
Just to show I did moved a big chunk of my investments out on Feb 19th at pretty much market peak.
I moved the rest out around Dow 26k.


moneytaichi

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #36 on: March 27, 2020, 10:53:49 PM »
I am also betting that the market will go down more. I am buying stocks in stages with every 3-5% drop. Still plenty of room to decide how much % to use from available funds. I am closely watching news and the forum discussion too.

There are no right or wrong way to do it, as long as you don't get panic and sell stocks when it drops. Prior to the market adjustment in Feb, I have 65% in stocks. Now I realize that I can be as comfortable as 80% of stocks. The major market events like these are good time to test your risk tolerance level and cash/investment strategies.

Northman

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #37 on: March 28, 2020, 02:19:02 AM »
I would be more concerned not being in the market. The market could recover way before the worst will come. Have a look at the stock market during the Spanish flu (way worse).

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/99990068-69FF-11EA-AFE6-3B7F98D26610

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #38 on: March 28, 2020, 06:52:40 AM »
- Monday. Dow hit 18.5k. I talked to wife about moving some money over, she told move 1/3. I didn't listen.
Your wife's timing was perfect - the lowest price for stocks in 2020 so far, with markets up +11.6% since then.  One way to limit the financial and emotional impact (will she remember this for years?) is to push 33% into stocks on Monday.

Did you know that entertainer/stock picker Jim Cramer ("Mad Money") used to be a hedge fund manager?  In his book he said his wife was better at investing than he is - and he's the cornerstone of CNBC's market coverage.  Which suggests to me that even the guy who runs the ship at CNBC probably listens to his wife when it comes to investments.

Jack0Life

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #39 on: March 28, 2020, 10:49:52 AM »
- Monday. Dow hit 18.5k. I talked to wife about moving some money over, she told move 1/3. I didn't listen.
Your wife's timing was perfect - the lowest price for stocks in 2020 so far, with markets up +11.6% since then.  One way to limit the financial and emotional impact (will she remember this for years?) is to push 33% into stocks on Monday.

Did you know that entertainer/stock picker Jim Cramer ("Mad Money") used to be a hedge fund manager?  In his book he said his wife was better at investing than he is - and he's the cornerstone of CNBC's market coverage.  Which suggests to me that even the guy who runs the ship at CNBC probably listens to his wife when it comes to investments.

Heh, can't give my wife too much credit, she's stubborn as hell.
Monday's idea to move some money back into Index was mine. The market's been dropping for a few days and the stimulus package was almost onboard so I thought the market might be up for a day or two. I give her credit that she wanted to move 1/3($100k). I actually wanted to move only $50k. Ended up doing only $35k to Index and $43k to bonds. Hindsight is a killer. You always wish you would have done something else.

During this entire meltdown, any day that I tell her the market is plunging like crazy, she tells me I should move everything back in cause we are ahead already. I've ignored her every time and rightfully so. I have my own idea of when to move back in and I'm trying to stick to it. Monday was pretty much the only time I should have listen to her but I'm OK with the modest gain we made during last week.

My wife is stubborn as hell like most passive investors. She has accumulate close to $15k from her 401k at work(onlt been there less than 1 yr). By the time I moved everything out of equities(Dow 26k) i also urged  her to move her 401k also. I mean this was when we just got our first few cases in our state. I knew it was going to get worst everyone knew it was going to get worst. She refused. Basically she didn't want to move when she already taken a loss. I keep telling her its to "minimize the loss". The situation will get worst, you will lose more money if you leave it in equities. Kept saying NO. Her 401k went from $15k to $12k. Should be sitting at $14k had she listen to me.
People can call it "timing the market" all they want. We had an entire month to see what was happening in China. It was a bit naive to think that the Virus wasn't coming over here.

Huskers1

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #40 on: March 28, 2020, 03:44:42 PM »
Don't listen to the naysayers. I'm in the same boat. "high-five"
I have around $300k idling in MM just itching to jump back in.
I also have $70k in cash that I need to make use of this golden opportunity.
I've been predicting 15k Dow and I'm sticking to it. I'll be buying back in stages though. Or if I see the pandemic stabilizing which I don't think is anytime soon.
I'm buying back when the Dow hits 18k, 17k, etcc....all in if it hits 15k.
Even if I'm wrong and the market suddenly start going back up next week ?? I've already save myself 25-30% during the plunge so no matter when I jump back in, I'll already ahead.

So....How many of you have jumped back in? 

Have you made any changes yet?

bthewalls

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #41 on: March 28, 2020, 04:05:19 PM »
Don't listen to the naysayers. I'm in the same boat. "high-five"
I have around $300k idling in MM just itching to jump back in.
I also have $70k in cash that I need to make use of this golden opportunity.
I've been predicting 15k Dow and I'm sticking to it. I'll be buying back in stages though. Or if I see the pandemic stabilizing which I don't think is anytime soon.
I'm buying back when the Dow hits 18k, 17k, etcc....all in if it hits 15k.
Even if I'm wrong and the market suddenly start going back up next week ?? I've already save myself 25-30% during the plunge so no matter when I jump back in, I'll already ahead.

So....How many of you have jumped back in? 

Have you made any changes yet?

im holding also, i think covid will make a mess of USA and continue to wreck europe.  China are insulated, for now.

Im watching berkshire, 128 billion in bank and hasnt moved yet.....in theory buying berk b in dip could be a good move before they start buying....they have to right!?

im gonna reassess when covid takes USA....say almost 3/4 weeks..

baz

Jack0Life

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #42 on: April 01, 2020, 02:23:17 PM »
So I decided to retired one of my smaller account today. Retired as in stop trying to "time the market".
Its a $15k Roth account belong to my wife.
As you can see from the picture below, I transferred it out to VBTLX at $15122 on 2/19 when the Dow closed @29400.
After moving it around a couple more places I decided to stick it back to VTSAX with the current balance of $15326 and be done with it.
Did it before the market closed today at @20,950.
Working on retiring other accounts as this market timing is consuming.

John Galt incarnate!

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #43 on: April 01, 2020, 02:39:58 PM »
Don't listen to the naysayers. I'm in the same boat. "high-five"
I have around $300k idling in MM just itching to jump back in.
I also have $70k in cash that I need to make use of this golden opportunity.
I've been predicting 15k Dow and I'm sticking to it. I'll be buying back in stages though. Or if I see the pandemic stabilizing which I don't think is anytime soon.
I'm buying back when the Dow hits 18k, 17k, etcc....all in if it hits 15k.
Even if I'm wrong and the market suddenly start going back up next week ?? I've already save myself 25-30% during the plunge so no matter when I jump back in, I'll already ahead.

If DJIA sinks to ~15,000  I'm selling 65% of my fixed-income  portfolio and buying more stocks.
« Last Edit: April 01, 2020, 02:41:49 PM by John Galt incarnate! »

Jack0Life

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #44 on: April 01, 2020, 02:47:28 PM »
Don't listen to the naysayers. I'm in the same boat. "high-five"
I have around $300k idling in MM just itching to jump back in.
I also have $70k in cash that I need to make use of this golden opportunity.
I've been predicting 15k Dow and I'm sticking to it. I'll be buying back in stages though. Or if I see the pandemic stabilizing which I don't think is anytime soon.
I'm buying back when the Dow hits 18k, 17k, etcc....all in if it hits 15k.
Even if I'm wrong and the market suddenly start going back up next week ?? I've already save myself 25-30% during the plunge so no matter when I jump back in, I'll already ahead.

If DJIA sinks to ~15,000  I'm selling 65% of my fixed-income  portfolio and buying more stocks.

I've been wishing for that moment to arrive too but it might never come.
I just have to buy back in stages and be decisive about it.

PDX Citizen

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #45 on: April 01, 2020, 03:16:24 PM »
I'm feeling pretty helpless to guess where the pandemic is going, or to understand all of the ways that it is going to end up affecting the world economy and global markets. So for a bit of historical context, I just looked at data for the last two downturns.

During the 2008 financial crisis, the S&P500 dropped ~54% from it's peak, and the lapse between peak and trough was around 1.5 years. In the Dot.com bust, the S&P 500 dropped ~46% from it's peak, and the lapse to the bottom was around 2.5 years.

Currently, the S&P is off it's peak around 25%, and this peak occurred just a few weeks ago. Personally, I feel like the downside of this seems potentially a lot greater than either of the previous two downturns. But even if it ends up being roughly comparable, history would suggest we still have quite a ways to go before we hit the market bottom.
« Last Edit: April 01, 2020, 03:20:20 PM by PDX Citizen »

bthewalls

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #46 on: April 01, 2020, 03:25:46 PM »
I'm feeling pretty helpless to guess where the pandemic is going, or to understand all of the ways that it is going to end up affecting the world economy and global markets. So for a bit of historical context, I just looked at data for the last two downturns.

During the 2008 financial crisis, the S&P500 dropped ~54% from it's peak, and the lapse between peak and trough was around 1.5 years. In the Dot.com bust, the S&P 500 dropped ~46% from it's peak, and the lapse to the bottom was around 2.5 years.

Currently, the S&P is off it's peak around 25%, and this peak occurred just a few weeks ago. Personally, I feel like the downside of this seems potentially a lot greater than either of the previous two downturns. But even if it ends up being roughly comparable, history would suggest we still have quite a ways to go before we hit the market bottom.


Would agree with this.  However, in a few months a lot of the population could be through covid ...excluding fatalities

Herd immunity seems to be the goal in several countries

FrugalSaver

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #47 on: April 01, 2020, 06:34:43 PM »
I'm feeling pretty helpless to guess where the pandemic is going, or to understand all of the ways that it is going to end up affecting the world economy and global markets. So for a bit of historical context, I just looked at data for the last two downturns.

During the 2008 financial crisis, the S&P500 dropped ~54% from it's peak, and the lapse between peak and trough was around 1.5 years. In the Dot.com bust, the S&P 500 dropped ~46% from it's peak, and the lapse to the bottom was around 2.5 years.

Currently, the S&P is off it's peak around 25%, and this peak occurred just a few weeks ago. Personally, I feel like the downside of this seems potentially a lot greater than either of the previous two downturns. But even if it ends up being roughly comparable, history would suggest we still have quite a ways to go before we hit the market bottom.


Would agree with this.  However, in a few months a lot of the population could be through covid ...excluding fatalities

Herd immunity seems to be the goal in several countries

One sad side effect of the global lock in is it guarantees a 2nd wave and maybe more. That may allow more people to help. Every decision comes with a negative consequence

A Hobsonís Choice of sorts

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #48 on: April 01, 2020, 09:12:22 PM »
Taking iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF (ITOT) because I'm tired of looking up VTI:
From Feb 19 to March 23, ITOT dropped -35%, an average bear market.
From Feb 19 to now, markets have dropped -28%.

If you predict a deep bear market of -50%, that's -50% measured from the peak.
But you could also measure it from today's prices: it would require another -30% drop.

Essentially, we're already in a bear market.  If you predict this will be as bad as the dot-com crash or the global financial crisis, you will only be right if we hit another bear market drop from here.  I think that's the way to view it - to try looking at the present situation with fresh eyes.  Is there information not priced in that will cause a bear market drop from current levels?

ChpBstrd

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Re: When to get back in - my grand market timing experiment
« Reply #49 on: April 02, 2020, 08:52:03 AM »
I'm feeling pretty helpless to guess where the pandemic is going, or to understand all of the ways that it is going to end up affecting the world economy and global markets. So for a bit of historical context, I just looked at data for the last two downturns.

During the 2008 financial crisis, the S&P500 dropped ~54% from it's peak, and the lapse between peak and trough was around 1.5 years. In the Dot.com bust, the S&P 500 dropped ~46% from it's peak, and the lapse to the bottom was around 2.5 years.

Currently, the S&P is off it's peak around 25%, and this peak occurred just a few weeks ago. Personally, I feel like the downside of this seems potentially a lot greater than either of the previous two downturns. But even if it ends up being roughly comparable, history would suggest we still have quite a ways to go before we hit the market bottom.

The previous two crises were caused by overpriced assets. This one is caused by a collapse in consumer demand, forced business closures, millions suddenly unemployed, and the productivity declines weíll face when tens of millions of Americans get sick and become unable to work for at least a month during this year. A nuclear strike on a major city would have done less economic damage.

Oh, and also we went into this crisis with overpriced stocks (CAPE>30, PE>25), bonds (historically low yields and spreads between junk and treasuries), and real estate (housing unaffordable for median family in 70% of locales). A banking crisis seems likely in phase 2.

In a nutshell, I agree, but not because the crises are comparable.