Author Topic: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?  (Read 8001 times)

PDXTabs

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #50 on: February 02, 2020, 10:08:10 PM »
Also, @Paper Chaser, the biggest debate right now in progressive circles is around healthcare. National healthcare (in whatever form) is about lowering individual costs, often by creating a larger group. Every mustachian should be interested in that.
« Last Edit: February 02, 2020, 10:13:49 PM by PDXTabs »

Paper Chaser

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #51 on: February 04, 2020, 06:39:34 AM »

My feeling of security isn't impacted by this sort of thing.  At best, it's probably mildly reduced . . . I'm a wealthy man, I'll be paying slightly more money to help others.  This has nothing to do with my security.  It has to do with trying to provide slightly more for others . . . because I'm lucky enough to have had enough stuff work out in my life that I've got more than I need now.

I grew up in a very poor place, and saw first hand how hard it can be for folks to scrape by.  Is it possible to succeed on your own?  Sure.  But it's harder than it needs to be.  Just because I've got mine doesn't mean I stop giving a crap about others.

Of course it would have impacted me in my younger days.  As far as personal sense of security today though, no . . . increasing social security nets doesn't really do anything to make me feel more secure.


Yes, in the past it would have been amazing.


What derision are we talking about?  I believe that people should have a safety net, and am willing to pay to support one . . . even though I don't ever expect to have to use it.

My argument wasn't that giving people a sense of security is bad . . . but that needing a sense of security is certainly not the only driver for people to support social programs

FWIW, I paid off my mortgage years ago . . . doing that did increase my sense of security I suppose.

:P

The derision I was referring to was a mindset among some posters here (in general, not necessarily you) that champion security when it comes in the form of social safety nets, while deriding security when it comes in the form of paying down a mortgage. That seems at least a bit hypocritical to me. If you want others to have security through social safety nets, then it seems consistent to also support those who seek security through mortgage payoff. If you see mortgage payoff as a foolish and wasteful use of resources based on emotional desire for security, then wouldn't social safety nets also be wasting resources to satisfy an emotional need for security?

There's a strong theme of independence and DIY in the FIRE community. The "I" in FIRE literally stands for Independence. We invest for ourselves and avoid brokers. We fix our own stuff instead of throwing it away and buying new. We cook for ourselves, do our own taxes, etc, etc. We do this to attain freedom from social norms like debt slavery or working our lives away in a consumeristic lifestyle. How does that current of independence, self sufficiency and bucking social constructs coincide with a desire to give other people a sense of security through the largest social construct that we have (the Government)? These two outlooks seem to run counter to each other to a degree.

I donít see these as opposed views.  Iím working towards FIRE, and love to DIY stuff and believe in personal responsibility etc.  That doesnít mean I think sick people should just die because they canít afford healthcare.  Just because I wonít fall for scammy business practices from money lenders, or financial advisors or MLMs etc doesnít mean Iíd rather sit back and laugh at people that fall for them rather than actually have some regulations and protections in place for those who donít know better.  It wonít provide me a sense of security, but it would be a nicer world to be in.

Let me be clear that I don't think it should be an "every man for himself" free for all. Regulation can be a very good thing. But regulating an industry to protect citizens and avoid practices that are abusive to consumers and/or the environment is different than just giving stuff out to everybody. I think there's a point where government goes from protecting consumers from predatory practices, to just creating a welfare state. I'd prefer a structure with government oversight/regulation of relatively free markets over simply handing out cash/free stuff. Attack the problem at it's source, rather than treating the symptoms of the problem.

This is currently done with utilities, where utilities are allowed to operate on their own, and make reasonable profits while acting in their own best interests. The regulators generally ensure that the utilities are not allowed to abuse their position and harm consumers in an unfair manner, and that they're meeting environmental standards in the process.

I'm sure there are tons of smarter people than me that have thought of something similar, and a hundred reasons why it's stupid but I haven't heard anybody actually suggest treating something like the healthcare industry as a utility. I think you could get 90% of the gains of a "medicare for all" type program at significantly lower costs by just regulating and letting free market forces go to work within that regulated frame work.

JAYSLOL

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #52 on: February 04, 2020, 11:34:41 AM »

My feeling of security isn't impacted by this sort of thing.  At best, it's probably mildly reduced . . . I'm a wealthy man, I'll be paying slightly more money to help others.  This has nothing to do with my security.  It has to do with trying to provide slightly more for others . . . because I'm lucky enough to have had enough stuff work out in my life that I've got more than I need now.

I grew up in a very poor place, and saw first hand how hard it can be for folks to scrape by.  Is it possible to succeed on your own?  Sure.  But it's harder than it needs to be.  Just because I've got mine doesn't mean I stop giving a crap about others.

Of course it would have impacted me in my younger days.  As far as personal sense of security today though, no . . . increasing social security nets doesn't really do anything to make me feel more secure.


Yes, in the past it would have been amazing.


What derision are we talking about?  I believe that people should have a safety net, and am willing to pay to support one . . . even though I don't ever expect to have to use it.

My argument wasn't that giving people a sense of security is bad . . . but that needing a sense of security is certainly not the only driver for people to support social programs

FWIW, I paid off my mortgage years ago . . . doing that did increase my sense of security I suppose.

:P

The derision I was referring to was a mindset among some posters here (in general, not necessarily you) that champion security when it comes in the form of social safety nets, while deriding security when it comes in the form of paying down a mortgage. That seems at least a bit hypocritical to me. If you want others to have security through social safety nets, then it seems consistent to also support those who seek security through mortgage payoff. If you see mortgage payoff as a foolish and wasteful use of resources based on emotional desire for security, then wouldn't social safety nets also be wasting resources to satisfy an emotional need for security?

There's a strong theme of independence and DIY in the FIRE community. The "I" in FIRE literally stands for Independence. We invest for ourselves and avoid brokers. We fix our own stuff instead of throwing it away and buying new. We cook for ourselves, do our own taxes, etc, etc. We do this to attain freedom from social norms like debt slavery or working our lives away in a consumeristic lifestyle. How does that current of independence, self sufficiency and bucking social constructs coincide with a desire to give other people a sense of security through the largest social construct that we have (the Government)? These two outlooks seem to run counter to each other to a degree.

I donít see these as opposed views.  Iím working towards FIRE, and love to DIY stuff and believe in personal responsibility etc.  That doesnít mean I think sick people should just die because they canít afford healthcare.  Just because I wonít fall for scammy business practices from money lenders, or financial advisors or MLMs etc doesnít mean Iíd rather sit back and laugh at people that fall for them rather than actually have some regulations and protections in place for those who donít know better.  It wonít provide me a sense of security, but it would be a nicer world to be in.

Let me be clear that I don't think it should be an "every man for himself" free for all. Regulation can be a very good thing. But regulating an industry to protect citizens and avoid practices that are abusive to consumers and/or the environment is different than just giving stuff out to everybody. I think there's a point where government goes from protecting consumers from predatory practices, to just creating a welfare state. I'd prefer a structure with government oversight/regulation of relatively free markets over simply handing out cash/free stuff. Attack the problem at it's source, rather than treating the symptoms of the problem.

This is currently done with utilities, where utilities are allowed to operate on their own, and make reasonable profits while acting in their own best interests. The regulators generally ensure that the utilities are not allowed to abuse their position and harm consumers in an unfair manner, and that they're meeting environmental standards in the process.

I'm sure there are tons of smarter people than me that have thought of something similar, and a hundred reasons why it's stupid but I haven't heard anybody actually suggest treating something like the healthcare industry as a utility. I think you could get 90% of the gains of a "medicare for all" type program at significantly lower costs by just regulating and letting free market forces go to work within that regulated frame work.

I definitely agree with you on most of that, Iím against handing out cash, of course a welfare state isnít good for anyone, it isnít good for those that pay for it, and it isnít even good for those that use(abuse) it.  There are lots of industries that could (and some that do) run fairly when well regulated, but I donít think that healthcare can be a free market (even a well regulated one) and still look out for peopleís best interests enough of the time.

Paper Chaser

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #53 on: February 05, 2020, 01:54:27 AM »
I donít think that healthcare can be a free market (even a well regulated one) and still look out for peopleís best interests enough of the time.

Of course it can't. Neither can utilities, and that's my point. Utilities are regulated in the manner that they are because they provide an essential service for modern life, but really can't be a free market (just like healthcare). Consumers can't really choose not to buy utilities, and when they do pay for utilities, there's often only a single provider (just like healthcare). There's a high cost of entry in the industry that acts as a barrier to natural competition (again, just like healthcare). So, since they more or less have consumers over a barrel, they're regulated to ensure that consumers aren't taken advantage of. They do this by controlling costs on the front end and making prices clear to consumers, not by pooling everybody's money together and trying to negotiate costs down after the fact. Instead of focusing on how we can pay for people's healthcare, lets focus on controlling costs first to make it more affordable in the first place.

dragoncar

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #54 on: February 05, 2020, 03:14:45 AM »
END OF DAYS . . .



Imagine the horrors of . . . HELPING PEOPLE WHO ARE IN POVERTY.  Or the terror of . . . ALLOWING WOMEN TO CHOOSE WHAT THEY WANT TO DO WITH THEIR BODIES.  The unspeakable shame of . . . EXTREMELY MILD AND GENERALLY INEFFECTIVE GUN CONTROL.  And of course, the disgusting practice of . . . ATTEMPTING TO PROVIDE MEDICAL CARE TO ALL.


Markets will definitely tank.  You should pull all your money out the second it seems likely.

Lol. I am pro all of those things but this is all completely irrelevant to the topic.

The potential impact on markets:
  • Increasing corporate taxes
  • Increasing capital gains taxes
  • Taxing assets annually using mark-to-market methods

I'm not going to comment on whether those are positive or negative things, or recommend any specific action, but to laugh off the potential market impact is kind of ridiculous.

Some of you are missing the fact that progressive programs will allow lower to middle income families to spend more.  How much is student debt and healthcare holding back spending?  Sure, this is wealth redistribution, but from an economic perspective redistribution puts more money in the hands of those likely to spend it not just hoard it like us.  Iím no economist, but I donít think you can be so sure the long term effects are bad for the market.  The money has to go somewhere (same with infrastructure/green spending).

Short term... i would guess a market temper tantrum but we also like buying opportunities right?

DadJokes

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #55 on: February 05, 2020, 02:25:58 PM »
I donít think that healthcare can be a free market (even a well regulated one) and still look out for peopleís best interests enough of the time.

Of course it can't. Neither can utilities, and that's my point. Utilities are regulated in the manner that they are because they provide an essential service for modern life, but really can't be a free market (just like healthcare). Consumers can't really choose not to buy utilities, and when they do pay for utilities, there's often only a single provider (just like healthcare). There's a high cost of entry in the industry that acts as a barrier to natural competition (again, just like healthcare). So, since they more or less have consumers over a barrel, they're regulated to ensure that consumers aren't taken advantage of. They do this by controlling costs on the front end and making prices clear to consumers, not by pooling everybody's money together and trying to negotiate costs down after the fact. Instead of focusing on how we can pay for people's healthcare, lets focus on controlling costs first to make it more affordable in the first place.

Texas has government-operated utilities but also allows for private utility companies. It results in competition but also a certain degree of indirect regulation. And Texas has some of the best utility prices in the country.

I like that analogy, and it makes me think that there could be a similar system with healthcare.

theolympians

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #56 on: February 05, 2020, 03:08:06 PM »
???

Who knows.

No one could have predicted what the markets would do in response to a complete lunatic, so there's that.

This cracked me up. While I'm concerned that President Warren or Sanders could be perceived as "bad for business", I would be willing to give up some returns if it meant having a rational adult at the helm again.

the "rational adult" who praised a collectivized food distribution system that killed millions? Or the rational adult who pretended to be native american for 30 years for personal gain?

+ 1

js82

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #57 on: February 05, 2020, 04:32:10 PM »
What are your thoughts on this? Obviously none of us have crystal balls and none of us are market timers, but I'm curious about how you think the markets might react to the news.

Depends on Congress.  Retaking the senate is probably a heavier lift for democrats than winning the White House.  If Republicans hold the senate, you won't see any progressive legislation, even with President Bernie.

In practice, a rollback of the corporate tax cuts in the 2017 tax bill would depress stock prices, assuming investors behave rationally.  So would an increase in cap gains taxes.  That is, if either of those factors is taken in isolation - which they never truly are.

Blueberries

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #58 on: February 06, 2020, 09:48:26 AM »
If you're truly interested, there is historical precedent on this.  History mimics, it doesn't exactly repeat, and there is no way to say how the market will react.  But, historical precedent is there if you want to view it.  I suggest listening to Ray Dalio's commentary on where we are economically and that might give you an idea of where we are and where we might be headed. 

ctuser1

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #59 on: February 06, 2020, 10:17:00 AM »
I donít think that healthcare can be a free market (even a well regulated one) and still look out for peopleís best interests enough of the time.

Of course it can't. Neither can utilities, and that's my point. Utilities are regulated in the manner that they are because they provide an essential service for modern life, but really can't be a free market (just like healthcare). Consumers can't really choose not to buy utilities, and when they do pay for utilities, there's often only a single provider (just like healthcare). There's a high cost of entry in the industry that acts as a barrier to natural competition (again, just like healthcare). So, since they more or less have consumers over a barrel, they're regulated to ensure that consumers aren't taken advantage of. They do this by controlling costs on the front end and making prices clear to consumers, not by pooling everybody's money together and trying to negotiate costs down after the fact. Instead of focusing on how we can pay for people's healthcare, lets focus on controlling costs first to make it more affordable in the first place.

Texas has government-operated utilities but also allows for private utility companies. It results in competition but also a certain degree of indirect regulation. And Texas has some of the best utility prices in the country.

I like that analogy, and it makes me think that there could be a similar system with healthcare.

It will be a bad idea for the "Single Payer" model to not look more hybrid - like the utility ISO. A central body 'negotiates', allocates budget and effectively sets prices, and then private entities handle cash flows.

That's how several working "single payer" systems operate, and do rather well in all metrics you can measure.

The word "single payer" is more of an euphemism. I sense that most rational people use that s-word as a ramrod against the irrational government-phobia that exists in a large section of US populace.

In practice, US *does* tend to come up with very efficient systems of public-private partnerships - e.g. Utility ISO's, or even Medicare Advantage. If history is any guide, there is zero reason why US can't come up with a much better "single payer" model for it's entire population than the other working examples in other OECD countries.

PDXTabs

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #60 on: February 06, 2020, 10:45:56 AM »
It will be a bad idea for the "Single Payer" model to not look more hybrid - like the utility ISO. A central body 'negotiates', allocates budget and effectively sets prices, and then private entities handle cash flows.

That's how several working "single payer" systems operate, and do rather well in all metrics you can measure.

No, that's how France and Germany operate. True single payer systems include Canada, Taiwan, and to a lesser extent the (Beveridge Model) UK.

I do agree though that France is frequently touted as having the best bang for buck of any healthcare system on the planet and that if we were going to copy any system it should be theirs. As a US/UK dual national, I'm not sure I understand the political obsession over single payer by the progressives in the USA. Perhaps they believe that it is the only politically tenable option.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2020, 10:51:14 AM by PDXTabs »

ctuser1

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #61 on: February 06, 2020, 12:07:36 PM »
I'm not sure I understand the political obsession over single payer by the progressives in the USA. Perhaps they believe that it is the only politically tenable option.

IMO, it is a counter-reaction to the reaction from right the last time progressives tried to genuinely compromise.

Obamacare was basically a cut-and-paste-and-then-modify version of RomneyCare. It lacked even a public option for insurance. It is very similar to what the right-wing used to advocate before Obama's name got attached to it.

ChpBstrd

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #62 on: February 11, 2020, 01:44:34 PM »
It is very dangerous to think a president has anything to do with stock returns. Imagine if on November 8, 2016 you sold your VTSAX and put your whole portfolio in coal producers.

https://www.newsweek.com/eight-coal-companies-have-filed-bankruptcy-since-trump-took-office-1468734

Now imagine if at the beginning of the Obama administration you invested in clean energy ETFs such as ICLN, TAN, or FAN. Ironically, some of these are doing better during the Trump administration than under the Obama administration. Still, you'd have severely f*'d up your portfolio either way.

Presidents are essentially comedic actors who entertain us and cause the deaths of thousands of people in one way or another. They have little to do with technological or economic trends.

DadJokes

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #63 on: February 11, 2020, 01:51:08 PM »
It is very dangerous to think a president has anything to do with stock returns. Imagine if on November 8, 2016 you sold your VTSAX and put your whole portfolio in coal producers.

https://www.newsweek.com/eight-coal-companies-have-filed-bankruptcy-since-trump-took-office-1468734

Now imagine if at the beginning of the Obama administration you invested in clean energy ETFs such as ICLN, TAN, or FAN. Ironically, some of these are doing better during the Trump administration than under the Obama administration. Still, you'd have severely f*'d up your portfolio either way.

Presidents are essentially comedic actors who entertain us and cause the deaths of thousands of people in one way or another. They have little to do with technological or economic trends.

Iíve had this tweet saved for 4 years. I often look at it when I need a pick-me-up.

theolympians

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #64 on: February 11, 2020, 02:05:29 PM »
Bernie? Warren? CRASH!

Butti-man, Biden? Dip-dip, some recovery.

Bloomberg? Fizzle, fizzle. Maybe some gains overtime.

What will they all say when the market tanks? The important thing is not the market, it's that we are growing as a community.  You can't measure that in dollars. The market only benefits the rich, trust me. I can't point the way forward in stocks, but I can point you towards the breadline.

*****Just some random guy's opinion on the internet.

YoungInvestor

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #65 on: February 11, 2020, 07:29:37 PM »
Bernie? Warren? CRASH!

Butti-man, Biden? Dip-dip, some recovery.

Bloomberg? Fizzle, fizzle. Maybe some gains overtime.

What will they all say when the market tanks? The important thing is not the market, it's that we are growing as a community.  You can't measure that in dollars. The market only benefits the rich, trust me. I can't point the way forward in stocks, but I can point you towards the breadline.

*****Just some random guy's opinion on the internet.

I can see small-to-mid caps doing OK under Warren. Sure the top companies would suffer, likely bringing down a large part of the market with them, but it might not be terrible for the fundamentals of other companies. Warren seems to be a capitalist deep down.

Zamboni

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #66 on: February 11, 2020, 07:41:17 PM »
I predict an historic economic boom if a progressive becomes president, with huge growth in the renewable energy sector and tech stocks.

Mighty-Dollar

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #67 on: February 12, 2020, 02:12:31 AM »
Even if a crazed lunatic like Bernie Sanders becomes president, congress still has to approve his crazed budget. I think there would be a stock market correction if a democrat got elected, especially a socialist. Wall Street is not stupid. When it comes to people and their money, political propaganda (ex- OrangeManBad) takes a back seat. The smart money knows that Trump is great for business.
Just look at what he's done: Rolling back regulations, getting the corporate tax down from 35% to 21%, and just plain improving company willingness to invest, expand, etc because Trump is business-friendly. Stocks will go up after Trump wins, much like stocks went up after the 2016 election.

GuitarStv

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #68 on: February 12, 2020, 07:55:37 AM »
Trump is super business friendly.  Ask all the farmers about their record profits on the government dole.  Or all the industries impacted by his random implementation of tariffs and breaking of trade agreements.

UnleashHell

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #69 on: February 12, 2020, 08:48:35 AM »
Trump is super business friendly.  Ask all the farmers about their record profits on the government dole.  Or all the industries impacted by his random implementation of tariffs and breaking of trade agreements.

and coal. thats great!!

GuitarStv

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #70 on: February 12, 2020, 09:36:03 AM »
Trump is super business friendly.  Ask all the farmers about their record profits on the government dole.  Or all the industries impacted by his random implementation of tariffs and breaking of trade agreements.

and coal. thats great!!

Definately better than clean, renewable sources of energy.  Those are definitely not the future . . . that's why it's so important to keep clinging on to the old way of doing things and prevent change as much as possible.  If there's anything history has shown us, it's that if you  never change to meet the future you'll be just fine.

Wintergreen78

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #71 on: February 12, 2020, 10:47:40 AM »
Ií be been thinking about this more. LBJ was basically a giant socialist. Under his administration we got:
1. Medicare
2. Medicaid
3. Consumer Product Safety Commission
4. The department of housing and urban development
5. Food Stamps
6. Head Start
7. Job Corps (which became Americorps)
8. More funding for public schools

Now, to be fair to him, he did cut taxes. All the way down to a top rate of 70% on income and 48% on businesses. During his 62 months in office the SP500 went up by 40%, which works out to a little under 8% per year.

So, based on all that I think we would do okay if someone came into office and enacted a bunch of programs to help people who are struggling.

davidw

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #72 on: February 12, 2020, 11:08:08 AM »
What are your thoughts on this? Obviously none of us have crystal balls and none of us are market timers, but I'm curious about how you think the markets might react to the news.

We're running up huge deficits right now... while the economy is good, to goose benefits that accrue the most to a relatively small portion of society. Whoever is in office, I wonder how that plays out during the next recession.

IDK, none of this is normal and I'm worried. I've seen presidents come and go since Reagan and this is not 'politics as usual'.

ColoAndy

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #73 on: February 12, 2020, 02:41:40 PM »
It is very dangerous to think a president has anything to do with stock returns. Imagine if on November 8, 2016 you sold your VTSAX and put your whole portfolio in coal producers.

https://www.newsweek.com/eight-coal-companies-have-filed-bankruptcy-since-trump-took-office-1468734

Now imagine if at the beginning of the Obama administration you invested in clean energy ETFs such as ICLN, TAN, or FAN. Ironically, some of these are doing better during the Trump administration than under the Obama administration. Still, you'd have severely f*'d up your portfolio either way.

Presidents are essentially comedic actors who entertain us and cause the deaths of thousands of people in one way or another. They have little to do with technological or economic trends.

Iíve had this tweet saved for 4 years. I often look at it when I need a pick-me-up.
That's fantastic.  I love it!

fixie

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #74 on: February 14, 2020, 09:06:57 AM »
I'm most concerned with the hundreds of billions of wasted dollars spent by both "sides" on warfare, corporate welfare, giant farm subsidies etc.  The pentagon alone has lost trillions of dollars in the last 20 years. The US is the richest country in the history of the world, a large portion of its citizens live like kings compared to our ancestors, and we squabble over whether our fellow citizens should be allowed to live healthy lives full of meaning and productive, dignified work. 
I'm not worried about where President Bernie will take us, because catastrophic climate change is basically inevitable within just a few decades.  200 species a day go extinct.  90% of fish stocks are  threatened, ocean acidification will likely cause collapse of most fisheries.  Invertebrates are in deep trouble.  My 2.5 year old won't know the abundance I experienced in my youth hunting frogs and chasing insects.
Keep that in mind before you lament the loss of value in your stock portfolio.
-fixie

American GenX

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #75 on: February 14, 2020, 09:29:54 AM »
Bernie? Warren? CRASH!

Butti-man, Biden? Dip-dip, some recovery.

Bloomberg? Fizzle, fizzle. Maybe some gains overtime.

What will they all say when the market tanks? The important thing is not the market, it's that we are growing as a community.  You can't measure that in dollars. The market only benefits the rich, trust me. I can't point the way forward in stocks, but I can point you towards the breadline.

*****Just some random guy's opinion on the internet.

I think you're right if they were to get some democratic majorities in Congress as well.  But I think it's more likely that they won't be able push through much, if any, of their most "progressive" ideas through the Congress they're dealt with.

wienerdog

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #76 on: February 14, 2020, 11:29:50 AM »
My 2.5 year old won't know the abundance I experienced in my youth hunting frogs and chasing insects.
Keep that in mind before you lament the loss of value in your stock portfolio.
-fixie

Just wondering where you live? My cat brings frogs into the house.  I can assure you there is no shortage of frogs.

dragoncar

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #77 on: February 15, 2020, 12:30:12 AM »
My 2.5 year old won't know the abundance I experienced in my youth hunting frogs and chasing insects.
Keep that in mind before you lament the loss of value in your stock portfolio.
-fixie

Just wondering where you live? My cat brings frogs into the house.  I can assure you there is no shortage of frogs.

Yeah but theyíre all gay

ender

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #78 on: February 15, 2020, 09:13:05 AM »
This doesn't include 2018 or 2019 but... historically, Democrat presidents are better for the market than Republican presidents - https://www.cxoadvisory.com/political-indicators/revisiting-party-in-power-and-stock-returns/

Also interesting on that list is the correlations with the various party control of the house/senate. Lots of limited data but triple R beat out triple D meaningful.

Yes, causation vs correlation, limited data, not inflation adjusted, ignores global events, etc. This isn't really enough information to make predictive statements but it's interesting data in light of the conversation here nonetheless.

ChpBstrd

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #79 on: February 17, 2020, 02:01:09 PM »
I'm most concerned with the hundreds of billions of wasted dollars spent by both "sides" on warfare, corporate welfare, giant farm subsidies etc.  The pentagon alone has lost trillions of dollars in the last 20 years. The US is the richest country in the history of the world, a large portion of its citizens live like kings compared to our ancestors, and we squabble over whether our fellow citizens should be allowed to live healthy lives full of meaning and productive, dignified work. 
I'm not worried about where President Bernie will take us, because catastrophic climate change is basically inevitable within just a few decades.  200 species a day go extinct.  90% of fish stocks are  threatened, ocean acidification will likely cause collapse of most fisheries.  Invertebrates are in deep trouble.  My 2.5 year old won't know the abundance I experienced in my youth hunting frogs and chasing insects.
Keep that in mind before you lament the loss of value in your stock portfolio.
-fixie

fixie

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #80 on: September 01, 2020, 04:22:17 PM »
This scenario is impossible since there aren't any progressive candidates running for office.

Apocalyptica602

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #81 on: September 02, 2020, 06:34:21 AM »
This scenario is impossible since there aren't any progressive candidates running for office.

Thanks for bumping a 6 month old thread to remind us that we need to chose between Biden and Trump.

dragoncar

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #82 on: September 02, 2020, 12:21:12 PM »
This scenario is impossible since there aren't any progressive candidates running for office.

Thanks for bumping a 6 month old thread to remind us that we need to chose between Biden and Trump.

If you don't believe that these guys have REAL Ultimate Power you better get a life right now or they will chop your head off!!!  It's an easy choice, if you ask me.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #83 on: September 02, 2020, 01:48:00 PM »
This scenario is impossible since there aren't any progressive candidates running for office.

Thanks for bumping a 6 month old thread to remind us that we need to chose between Biden and Trump.

If you don't believe that these guys have REAL Ultimate Power you better get a life right now or they will chop your head off!!!  It's an easy choice, if you ask me.

 Itís a very easy choice: skip voting for these twits and their godawful political factions and do something useful on November 3rd.

I think Iíll do laundry. Or bake some cookies.

DadJokes

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #84 on: September 02, 2020, 02:30:14 PM »
This scenario is impossible since there aren't any progressive candidates running for office.

Thanks for bumping a 6 month old thread to remind us that we need to chose between Biden and Trump.

If you don't believe that these guys have REAL Ultimate Power you better get a life right now or they will chop your head off!!!  It's an easy choice, if you ask me.

 Itís a very easy choice: skip voting for these twits and their godawful political factions and do something useful on November 3rd.

I think Iíll do laundry. Or bake some cookies.

As a local comedian once said, "I'll go to the nail salon and talk with the Vietnamese women about what erection day means to them."

Full_Beard

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #85 on: September 02, 2020, 05:18:59 PM »
Some economists were discussing this very issue and the conclusion is incredibly simple: Trump is only the 45th President, so there is way too little data to reach any statistically reliable conclusion on whether a party has any measurable effect on the economy, let alone the stock market. But, given the reality of the world we live in, pundits will posit a sh't ton of theories depending on who they want to win. It's a loaded question with loaded answers.

dragoncar

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #86 on: September 02, 2020, 09:11:53 PM »
This scenario is impossible since there aren't any progressive candidates running for office.

Thanks for bumping a 6 month old thread to remind us that we need to chose between Biden and Trump.

If you don't believe that these guys have REAL Ultimate Power you better get a life right now or they will chop your head off!!!  It's an easy choice, if you ask me.

 Itís a very easy choice: skip voting for these twits and their godawful political factions and do something useful on November 3rd.

I think Iíll do laundry. Or bake some cookies.

Username checks out

Full_Beard

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #87 on: September 03, 2020, 01:02:24 AM »
Itís a very easy choice: skip voting for these twits and their godawful political factions and do something useful on November 3rd.

I think Iíll do laundry. Or bake some cookies.
Wow, you can't be serious.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #88 on: September 03, 2020, 06:02:51 AM »
Itís a very easy choice: skip voting for these twits and their godawful political factions and do something useful on November 3rd.

I think Iíll do laundry. Or bake some cookies.
Wow, you can't be serious.
Serious as a heart attack. And my name isnít wow.*

There is an interesting and pervasive myth in American culture that voting matters even at the individual level. I donít buy it at all. So when it comes down to it, Iíd rather have clean clothes and cookies than waste time trying to choose the lesser twit.

*(Sorry. Couldnít resist.)

theoverlook

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #89 on: September 03, 2020, 09:35:19 AM »
Voting takes less time than laundry or baking cookies.

PDXTabs

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #90 on: September 03, 2020, 09:52:48 AM »
There is an interesting and pervasive myth in American culture that voting matters even at the individual level. I donít buy it at all. So when it comes down to it, Iíd rather have clean clothes and cookies than waste time trying to choose the lesser twit.

I wonder why people think that you are a Russian bot?

EDITed to add: you don't have any local elections that matter? I vote every time, in large part to change things locally.
« Last Edit: September 03, 2020, 10:08:36 AM by PDXTabs »

CrankAddict

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #91 on: September 03, 2020, 12:06:23 PM »
All around the world people have died in the streets for the chance to be able to pick their own leaders.  In this country over 40% of the people can't be bothered to show up and most of those who do are woefully uninformed and either blindly voting for whoever their parents voted for, or whoever [insert highly paid, highly biased pundit] told them to vote for.  It's a mess and we as a country no longer deserve to have a functioning government.  And what do you know, we no longer do.  At least one thing make sense.

Anyway, to the OP's question (loosely, since there is no actual progressive in the race), I recently read in the WSJ that across US businesses the current tax cuts have increased share prices by 5-7%.  So putting aside all the usual "nobody knows any anything and we're all just playing roulette here" notions, I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar drop in the market if Biden rolled back all the corporate cuts immediately.   But there's no way it should crash the markets.  I do think a President Sanders or Warren would have shaken the markets much harder than a Biden one will.  The Dow more than doubled last time Biden was in the white house, so would seem a bit silly for them to freak out on round two.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #92 on: September 03, 2020, 01:26:49 PM »
There is an interesting and pervasive myth in American culture that voting matters even at the individual level. I donít buy it at all. So when it comes down to it, Iíd rather have clean clothes and cookies than waste time trying to choose the lesser twit.
I wonder why people think that you are a Russian bot?

EDITed to add: you don't have any local elections that matter? I vote every time, in large part to change things locally.
I disagree with Buffaloski Boris being a bot, Russian or otherwise.  Sure, it's 2 months before the election and people should be wary of those convincing them not to vote.  But visit user post history, and you'll see this view is consistent with Boris' other posts.

I find the media annoying when they talk about "national polls" and "that's not democratic" when talking about the Presidential election.  It's not democratic!  A majority vote does not determine the President (as seen in 2016) - it's all about the electoral college math.  That math favors sparsely populated swing states.

---
Although Biden isn't considered Progressive, he might appoint progressives to positions of power.  For the stock market, the most interesting speculation might be the odds Senator Elizabeth Warren gets selected to run the Treasury Department.  Transitioning from a hedge fund manager and Goldman Sachs CIO to a critic of Wall Street would be a dramatic shift.  But that assumes Biden wins, doesn't need Warren's vote in the Senate, and decides to make her part of the administration.

Full_Beard

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #93 on: September 03, 2020, 04:17:29 PM »
Voting takes little time and can be done by mail. I vote in every election -- local, state, and federal. In my view, it's a right no one should piss away. It's easy to discount anyone's significance on a whole host of matters, but that isn't the point.

Again, whatever theories anyone propounds for the effect any president can have the markets is not supported by statistically reliable data.

Besides, Trump is a joke. Worse, a dangerous joke. I'd rather see markets drop every year during Biden's presidency than have Trump for another 4.

PDXTabs

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #94 on: September 03, 2020, 05:06:44 PM »
I disagree with Buffaloski Boris being a bot, Russian or otherwise.

Me too, I was joking. I actually quite like his contributions, I just don't get the voting thing.

dragoncar

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #95 on: September 03, 2020, 07:13:55 PM »
I disagree with Buffaloski Boris being a bot, Russian or otherwise.

Me too, I was joking. I actually quite like his contributions, I just don't get the voting thing.

For the record I was joking too.  But the talking points are the same.  He may READ a lot of bots.

Davnasty

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #96 on: September 04, 2020, 08:52:51 AM »
I disagree with Buffaloski Boris being a bot, Russian or otherwise.

Me too, I was joking. I actually quite like his contributions, I just don't get the voting thing.

For the record I was joking too.  But the talking points are the same.  He may READ a lot of bots.

Interestingly, that's sort of where the name came from. It was politely suggested that another poster (not Buffalo) should take a moment to consider that their talking points matched those of known Russian bots. No one was called a Russian bot or even told they were wrong, just that they should think about where their talking points come from.

Buffalo quickly jumped in front of the bot bullet and turned it into an attack on himself. Thus the sarcastic handle was born... in case anyone was wondering:)

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #97 on: September 04, 2020, 09:33:01 AM »
Glad to hear it - and I didn't know that was actually his nickname.

---
Although there wasn't a specific prediction when I searched for "538 senate forecast 2020", the article I found suggests it's possible Democrats take control of the senate.  If Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren left her position, the Republican governor could pick her replacement.  Similarly, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is in a state with a Republican governor - so same situation there.  That situation makes it less likely a progressive becomes part of the administration, since their votes may be needed in the Senate.

ChpBstrd

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Re: What will happen to the stock market if a progressive becomes president?
« Reply #98 on: September 04, 2020, 12:44:59 PM »
The problem is that way too many people think voting is about selecting the best person. Itís absolutely not. Voting is about expressing your values. To truly have a value is to be motivated enough to do your part to support it. You demonstrate that you actually have values by voting for the people who will enact your values - or against those who would work against your values. The politician is only your employee and you donít have to like or even know them as an individual. In fact, you will never truly know them so drop the whole personality pageant mentality.

It is no surprise that the millions of people who think their job is to vote for the best person in the world get a little bit disillusioned and think theyíre all awful after many months and millions of dollars are spent in a mudslinging campaign. And then - irony of all ironies - after being influenced not to vote by special interests spending on advertising, they throw up their arms and declare that the whole system is corrupt so therefore they wonít vote. This is exactly what the big campaign donors wanted you to believe all along!! Their plan is to neutralize the voters who support different values. It works because too many people think voting is about supporting someone else, when in fact voting is about supporting your own values.

In a sense, many people have a consumerist attitude toward their democracy. If they see too many negative reviews or ads, they think they can hold out for a better deal. But actually somebody gets elected every time, and the same game of voter discouragement occurs every time, and the people who let themselves get influenced watch the world drift farther and farther from their interests and values. You and I are accountable to ourselves for supporting our values, if we truly have values. Frame it that way and a lot of things become more clear.

Full_Beard

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